Newbie 2010: Pride Month | Game Over

[Umlaut]

Ego

VOTE: Snowblaze
Wagons are nice.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: gibus
Bigger wagons are nicer.

I'm curious about the newbies' past experience with Mafia here. Is this your first game? Did you play on another site first? Have you already played a game with anyone else in this one?

[Umlaut]

Would you look at who it is. Do you always try and form big wagons early, Umlaut?

Hey, size matters. I like 'em big

[Umlaut]

I'm like 95% sure it is, but Hoctac trained me not to believe anything he said.

[Umlaut]

Yes, although come to think of it he was scum in that game so I can't really hold all the lying against him. We were also in Micros 938 and 940 together.

[Umlaut]

What do you find in post 26 that is scummy? To me, it looks like they're agreeing with you that gibus made a post that was a scumclaim.

I think you're reading a lot more into both 26 and 30 than there actually is there.

Post 27, on the other hand, is pretty scummy. The reasoning of simply wanting "a bigger wagon" seems opportunistic.

VOTE: Umlaut

What do you get out of having big wagons forming early on the game as town? What are your thoughts on the current wagons?

What's opportunistic about it? Is there someone else you think I should be voting instead, and if not then what's wrong with jumping onto the biggest wagon?

I really haven't seen anything alignment-indicative from anyone yet. My thoughts on the current wagons are that it's good they exist because they'll push the game forward.

I'm disgusted by all this alt-speculation. No respect for people's privacy. But yes, I can confirm that I am in fact an alt of Looker.

This guy just can't resist a chance to fakeclaim.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Pii.

This just feels like a lot of noise. The wagon wasn't RVS.

For what it's worth, I felt like the wagon was pretty random when I jumped onto it. I don't take Gibus' "scumclaim" seriously for a second and I definitely don't believe it's more likely to come from scum.

That said, I don't understand where Pi is coming from here and it bothers me. I just read 81 five times and I still don't really know what he's saying. I also think 76 deserves an answer.

VOTE: piisirational
because at least it's better than gibus.

[Umlaut]

Strong town vibes from Ganster's 85.

Umlaut, what's your actual read on gibus?

Pretty much null still, leaning town if I had to choose. I like his followup with Pi in 86 but the original reasoning for voting him in 55 is actually kind of meh. ("Opportunistic" is a bit of a buzzword, sure, but it's also a perfectly legitimate word with an actual meaning and a valid way to read something.) He pretty much ignored the wagon on him early on as far as I can tell, which is NAI.

[Umlaut]

Feels like pi town.

I'm going to really need you to explain this because I don't see it at all.

VOTE: Snow

Feels like you are trying really hard right now

This is the lamest excuse for a vote I've seen all game, and I used "Wagons are nice"

twice.

Why are you getting defensive at a vote?

VOTE: Snow

Feels like you are trying really hard right now

...how does that make me scum? I’m just throwing out whatever thoughts I have at the moment.

This just felt panicked. Odds are I'm wrong or they are frustrated. But to flip out over one vote just didn't feel right.

And these followups are just as bad. Panicked, really?

"You're scummy because you're trying too hard"
"Wait, why is trying hard scummy?"
"Damn you're shook"

Snow and Elmo can't be scum together. Leaning town on Snow.

Somewhat agree on the first part but I don't really have any meaningful read on Snow. Why town?

@Ghost Ganster: Homura has been relatively inactive as town in previous games.

This is likely not going to be popular, but I don't care too much if they're town. Giving lurkers a pass is bad, in my opinion, even if meta is at play. It's just too good for scum.

She has yet to even vote, randomly or not.

@Homura, what are your scum-reads? Do consider using your vote as well, please.

Good post (though I maybe agree with the second part more than the first; I definitely do care if they're town.)

Not sure how to feel about Raya's white-knighting me in 105. It seems from the next post that they don't actually think Pi is scum so I'm not sure what else that post could be trying to accomplish. Still leaning scum on Pi notwithstanding Snow's meta point there, also Elmo after that ridiculous push on Snow. Ganster is still my favorite for town.

[Umlaut]

84: This doesn't feel like the Umlaut I know and love! You understand that scum are usually found more often on wagons, right?

Maybe I don't understand this. More often than they aren't? More often than town are?

Everyone is found more often on wagons because wagons by definition include a large fraction of the players.

[Umlaut]

Not sure how to feel about Raya's white-knighting me in 105. It seems from the next post that they don't actually think Pi is scum so I'm not sure what else that post could be trying to accomplish. Still leaning scum on Pi notwithstanding Snow's meta point there, also Elmo after that ridiculous push on Snow. Ganster is still my favorite for town.

Are you sure you meant 105? I'm a bit confused

I meant 105, yes (but not so much in itself as because it's continuing to pursue the line of discussion starting with 76). You say Pi is town so you're not claiming his reasons are disingenuous, you're just trying to dissuade him from scumreading me. I don't think I've yet done anything so obvtown as to warrant that kind of defense, so where's it coming from?

[Umlaut]

Losing interest in Pi, he seems like he could just be foot-in-mouth town. 121 in particular sort of reminds me of another player who is the sort of lynchbait I am way too prone to fall for.

VOTE: Elmo
I'm not thrilled with starting a wagon on someone immediately after they declare V/LA, but she's posted since then so I guess she's not completely absent.

[Umlaut]

Oh I see what you mean. I was never trying to dissuade him from scumreading you. I was just trying to get a better read on Pi. Which I did. I wasn't even thinking about you when asking it which is why I was confused at first

I guess that makes sense. I think it's good town play to keep questioning even players you think are town but I don't necessarily expect to see town actually do it even though they should, so it wasn't clear to me you were doing that.

(In response to your next post, I am most definitely town or scum)

[Umlaut]

WRT to the second bit — my play has lessened in proactiveness since the quarantine. I tend to keep my cards close to my chest nowadays, because I lack the energy for thinking up questions that I can analyze critically. Consider this an excuse if you wish.

I can feel this, but it's no reason not to at least put down a vote. You've already said you feel one of Snow or Elmo are scum so how does it tip your hand to vote one of them?

[Umlaut]

Really do not get how anyone thinks Ghost is scum right now. The only point that sort of makes sense is "listing a lot of reasons to scumread people" but I think the explanation in 163 is solid.

Raya, thoughts on Ghost's push on me?

Why did you ask this of Raya specifically? I'd assume you already knew Raya had him as scum?

[Umlaut]

Why did you ask this of Raya specifically? I'd assume you already knew Raya had him as scum?

I did. I also think Ghost is obvtown. My intent should be clear.

I didn't know you had Ghost as obvtown, so it seemed like you were inviting Raya to make arguments that he was scum so you wouldn't have to. Seeing you stick your neck out on a read there helps that a bit, though.

I do think there's a more flippant element to her play than scum would have, but that can't be counted as a point in town!Elmo's favor.

This seems self-contradictory.

[Umlaut]

I agree TStbS is a bad tell, but that's not quite what you said. You said Elmo isn't playing in a way she would play as scum, but that isn't evidence that she's town. If that were true it would be pretty much by definition evidence that she's town.

I realize as I write it that this is kind of nitpicky but it's still bothering me.

[Umlaut]

My eyes are drooping and I feel tired so I'm gonna come back to this tomorrow after a 8 hour power nap.

Did you oversleep?

[Umlaut]

@Pi

Why are you still voting me? Last time you talked about it you were saying you didn't even really think I was scum. Did you decide I was at some point or do you just still have no scumreads two days later?

[Umlaut]

Since I lie 90% of the time you should just assume the opposite of everything I say is true. Except for that last sentence. And that one. And that one...

[Umlaut]

Ghost vote on Elmo.

I think I parsed this sentence differently from the folks who are asking "why do you want Ghost Ganster to do that"

but I'll let Homura speak for herself.

[Umlaut]

Why does it look like that, Raya? I'm just voicing any suspicions I have. He's not my top scumread, and I actually like his recent responses to me, though it took me several tries to read and understand what he was saying.

Okay, Homura, I can see where you're coming from there. You mean that his rapid fire questioning is more designed to make you look bad than for him to actually gauge your alignment.

I don't like either part of this post.

First part looks like you're seeing you misread the room on Pi and backpedaling on that push.

Second part is... actually not awful, I guess, but has a distinct "I get you, let's be friends :)" tone that I find un-towny.

I'll catch up later. 55+ hrs a week is beating me down

Sigh. I hope you find time soon.

[Umlaut]

That said,

@Pi

Why are you still voting me? Last time you talked about it you were saying you didn't even really think I was scum. Did you decide I was at some point or do you just still have no scumreads two days later?

The fact you've changed your vote doesn't relieve you from answering this.

[Umlaut]

Umlaut, why do I need to scumread and then backpedal on turtle as scum? They're not my top scumread and I wasn't pushing them. What's the point?

I don't know how to answer "why do I

need

to" because it doesn't look like you

need

to, just like you did. 217 reads like rising suspicion of Pi and I wouldn't be surprised to see it accompanied or shortly followed by a vote, but after Raya's 235 makes it clear she finds that post scummy you immediately clarify you're not actually scumreading Pi all that much or preparing to vote him. You never literally wrote "raaahhrr I'm scumreading you strongly now" but overall the post comes off like you're pushing a case that he's scum, and then you back off it at the first sign of disapproval.

[Umlaut]

Elmo where are you

↑

[Umlaut]

H2M replaces Ghost Ganster. Welcome!

o/

Looking forward to your catch-up.

[Umlaut]

Hi Nauci! I wish I were more happy you joined but I really wish I'd gotten some response from your predecessor.

I'm pretty comfortable leaving you at L-2 at least until you do something to convince me you're town. There's still a full day left so you should have time.

[Umlaut]

Why are people voting Elmo

Primarily for her really garbage push on Snowblaze.

[Umlaut]

Probably time for us to all put our cards on the table since deadline is approaching.

Reads:

• M2H is so town it hurts
  
• Raya36 also pretty town
  
• Snowblaze is a tough call but I'm leaning town
  
• gibus and Homura are dead null
  
• Pi is null too but I'm more paranoid there
  
• One of Nauci or Hectic is probably scum

[Umlaut]

Ego

VOTE: Snowblaze
Wagons are nice.

...except when you’re the one being wagoned. VOTE: Umlaut, blatant OMGUS.

Calling one's own vote OMGUS seems fairly above rand town.

Going to actually disagree with this, I get what you're saying but I don't think that's at all difficult for scum to emulate. It's not as if anyone was actually going to be suspicious of something like that. I think 18 where she literally says "you, who I am voting right now, are probably town" is maybe a better example of that same point though.

[Umlaut]

Elmo also seems to be an OK vote. Not one that I'm particularly excited about but not one that I'm interested in fighting neccesarily. I would hope for a sub into that slot that might be a little easier to read, but as a POE slot an Elmo vote isn't the worst way d1 could end.

Actually this gave me pause for a second, I'd say this looks like M2H is going on record as not wanting to lynch there while sort of letting the lynch happen anyway, but the fact they're up front about it makes it not so bad.

[Umlaut]

I don't understand any of these posts about "hoctac"

Umlaut pls explain

I played in a few games with one Hoctac who I am about 90% sure is a Hectic alt, but getting a straight answer from Hactec here about whether that's the case is probably impossible.

[Umlaut]

Nauci, where have you seen my play and decided I'm so good? I don't deny I'm pretty decent at playing scum, but if we've been in a game together I don't recall it.

[Umlaut]

Just did a quick vote count and 4/9 players aren't voting right now with a day to deadline, so that's cool :)

gibus (3) - M2H, Raya36, Hectic
Hectic (2) - piisirrational, gibus
Nauci (1) - Umlaut

Not Voting (4) - Homura, gibus, Snowblaze, Nauci

I'm still not totally sold on Nauci town; her catch-up was good but not so good that I don't think scum could post like that. I think people in general give a bit too much credit for making any effort at all. That said the wagon seems to have disintegrated and her posting has been good enough that I'm willing to hold off and see where she goes. In particular I think her paranoia about how fast the gibus wagon has grown is pretty believable since I feel the same way about it.

UNVOTE: Nauci
VOTE: Hectic

Hectic I felt was entirely null until a player who, with apparently literal decades of experience, didn't realize he was making a L-1 vote. Thoughts, Umlaut?

I agree failing to notice an L-1 is not a good sign, but if 68 is your source for "literal decades of experience" then you should note that that's an even-numbered post.

[Umlaut]

Oops, I double-counted gibus in "Not Voting," my bad. Only 3/9 players not voting.

[Umlaut]

It's not the fact that it's the effort that is what giving me a townlean on her, but more of the content behind the post. I think the fact that she split up her catch-up post (I feel like scum would probably be more likely to put everything into one post) and the fact that she plans to "properly resuscitate the game" is town-indicative.

Really? I don't buy "splitting up her catch-up post" as AI at all, and as for that "resuscitate the game" comment... you are aware that scum want people to think they're town, yes?

@Nauci

You're going to acknowledge we need to consolidate on a lynch, and then start a whole new wagon from zero? How about you vote Hectic so we can actually get an intent before we're down to last-second scrambling?

[Umlaut]

Will catchup before deadline. For now though; Umalut, what's your progression on me?

One of Nauci or Hectic is probably scum

Why do you think this?

I think I've made my arguments about Nauci née Elmo pretty well already.

I've been paranoid of you pretty much all game because when people goof off a lot I have a hard time reading their real intentions and I feel like it's an easy way to hide a lot of otherwise scummy behavior.

I

know posts like 68 and 212 are just playing around but others don't necessarily pick up on that, and it causes them to make bad reads.

I liked you when you were voting Elmo, because I agreed with the reasoning there, but really Elmo's weird push was a pretty easy thing to notice (especially after I noticed it first) and I think you would likely have voted her for it as either alignment.

I didn't really think much of anything you posted between that and 217. Looking back, this is because you actually didn't post much--the only thing of substance is 210 which is kind of easy observations and really NAI.

I still think the Pi push and then retraction and denial that it was a push is bad, and something rubs me the wrong way about how you jokingly leaned into my suggestion you were courting Homura by echoing it in 246 and 280.

I don't like the way you left the Nauci wagon either. After being "reasonably sure Elmo is scum," you're deciding Nauci is towny for... not voting you? That's not much of a reason. I would expect town to be more paranoid here and you're not showing that. I don't see a lot of reason given to scumread gibus in the first place so I don't see why you would jump to that in particular.

I also think that saying let's not lynch gibus now, specifically because he claims VT is fairly suspect and doesn't seem like a real reason. If he had claimed a PR would you have said, okay, let's lynch him? I'm hesitant to call this PR hunting (because I think that doing so blatantly is generally just not done), but it looks a lot like doing "what I imagine town would do" instead of what town would actually do in this scenario.

[Umlaut]

VT claims on day 1 are usually town in newbie game; scum will usually claim a PR. Plus, gibus is acting very differently to how he did when under pressure as scum in our previous game. I'm feeling a little hopeless honestly; the two wagons are now on people I think are both town. PT hunting, really? As a personal anecdote, every day 1 VT claim I've seen in newbie games have actually been VT. It's a thing.

I'm going to have to actually look at the data on this (I think someone actually does compile this sort of data?) because it doesn't match my experience at all. Admittedly my meta for newbie games is years old, but if it's true it should be exploitable by scum, and then be exploited until it's not true any more.

I don't think my point on Nauci is bad at all. Why should I be "paranoid" as town if she goes for someone who isn't me? It may be the same slot, but it's a different person.

If I'm town, and I think I'm the most likely lynch, and I see my top scumread vote somewhere else, my first thought is not "oh they must be town then" but "they are trying to be off the mislynch wagon." Failing to think of that possibility suggests you were never really that invested in thinking Elmo was scum.

Turtle wasn't a push because I didn't vote him, that should be clear. If I was trying to get turtle lynched, I would've voted him. That was me voicing suspicions.

I'm not going to pursue this point because it seems to be more about the semantics of the word "push."

I also don't think you're using the "goofing around" thing in good faith. I've done it in every game with you, twice as town, and once as scum. I've also made it clear that even posts should not be taken seriously. So how is it "hard to read my real intentions", when it's clear which posts you should be taking seriously?

I was paranoid of you in those games too! The only time I wasn't suspicious of you was when I was scum. In Butterfly Mafia I was half-convinced you were about to off me Night 1 and then sail to an easy win. I know you do this in all your games and I'm not saying it's particularly a reason to scumread you here, but you wanted to know my progression on you and that paranoia is a part of it. It's not part of my case, and accusing me of bad faith for answering a question you asked is obnoxious.

[Umlaut]

Sus on M2H's post even though he just said he's so town it hurts.

Can you explain why this is bad?

[Umlaut]

We don't have time for this, so I'm just going to head it off at the pass and say now that I'm an investigative PR. Let's lynch scum today.

[Umlaut]

Town can't counterclaim me anyway. And by my count 7/9 setups have either an investigative or someone who knows there isn't one, so I don't agree I could get away with it as scum. If town insists on it then I'll full-claim but I don't think it's in town's interest to out more information than necessary about the setup right now.

[Umlaut]

A Cop, Tracker, or Mason could counterclaim, because there is no setup with two different roles from that set. 7/9 setups have a Cop, Tracker, or Mason.

pedit

is that a cc? Because if so you're scum, and if not you'd better say so now and not try to play the "I was just really confident" game tomorrow.

[Umlaut]

Actually I'm pretty sure that's exactly the game you're playing.

VOTE: Snowblaze

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Hectic

This has more chance of going through and there is no reason for you you as scum to put yourself on the line like this if Hectic is town.

[Umlaut]

I still disagree philosophically but I'm not going to argue the point more.

I'm a Tracker.

That said the wagon [on Nauci] seems to have disintegrated and her posting has been good enough that I'm willing to hold off and

see where she goes.

[Umlaut]

I never realized there was a meta of full claiming at L-2 in this setup

[Umlaut]

I am not a gunsmith.

Given your love of fakeclaims I'm going to assume you

are

a gunsmith now.

Hang on, Snowblaze: If you're VT or a role that fits with Umlaut, say you're not CCing him. Otherwise, CC.

Same goes to everyone else in this game.

This does absolutely nothing useful except re-open the door for Snowblaze to try and claim VT in the future. No one else is going to cc me, and even if I were scum there is no good reason to get a second cc.

[Umlaut]

Unless the PRs are exactly masons, that means you can't be counterclaimed by any town PR, because every other PR is paired with some "investigative PR" in one of the boxes.

After thinking about it, this could be TMI. Hectic says there's no "other" PR that can counterclaim me, but neglects the possibility that someone other than myself could be a Cop or Tracker. Did you forget I was scum for a minute there?

[Umlaut]

The point is that you assumed no one else in the game could have an investigative role, which only makes sense if you believe/know mine is genuine.

[Umlaut]

Snowblaze made it sound like Umalut was lying by simply claiming an "investigative" role. Really need her to come back and confirm that her role doesn't work with Umlaut's claim.

Spoiler: She won't

[Umlaut]

I don't fucking understand why Umlaut would claim when he did though, wtf

If we had more time in the day I wouldn't have. I don't want town scrambling for a lynch with like an hour on the clock (which it looks like is what's going to happen anyway, oh well)

[Umlaut]

You'd better not let Snowblaze get away with this tomorrow by saying "gee I never meant that as a cc" if you're going to lynch me based on reading it as one.

[Umlaut]

My final solve is {Hectic, Snowblaze}. Don't let anyone spin some story about how it's too obvious and scum wouldn't do that. It's only a bad play if they actually get lynched for it, so lynch them for it.

[Umlaut]

Is this a good time to make a bah post?

[Umlaut]

The mafia also did a great job, too.

Not really, but thanks for saying it.

[Umlaut]

Congratulations to 72offsuit on his hard-won victory!!!

The only other possible explanation is that Umlaut legitimately thought that Hectic's last minute wagon would successfully go through in what little time remained, and honestly thought that claiming an investigative role would save him and hoped that town wouldn't be checking the thread in time to counter claim? Or that the lynch would go through either way, and he could at least draw out a town counter claim for his buddy to kill afterwards?

This is pretty much the correct explanation. I was fairly low in everyone's reads and expected the wagon to go to a lynch barring a drastic change in the game state, so I took a gamble. I figured either we'd turn out to be in setup C2 and I'd get away with it, or we'd be in another setup and at least out a PR. I sort of took it for granted that after outing a PR we would kill it.