Mini Normal 2262: NbITGBSMoD [game over]

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: HockeyFan

Will read shortly.

[Umlaut]

Okay actually doing catchup now

Spoiler: Pages 1-10

this rvs is wild!!! woooooo so exciting!! like, no one is really pushing 1 wagon, it's just "vote whoever" lol can rvs be over page 1 plz. I think Surye might be maf here, like, the 8th vote of the game, not on an existing wagon? ehhh

What is different between fireisredsir and surye in that regard?

mehhh fire’s is fine, called out something that also caught my eye. Surye’s though… suspicious tbh

when it takes 7 to lim 3 is nothing, putting people on e-2 or e-3 is where the pressure is, not really e-4

This page 1 exchange is kind of weird in that on reading Andante's 15 I would have assumed it was just standard RVS nonsense, but it seems like Dwlee took it seriously enough to question it and then Andante answered in a way that implies it actually was serious (at least a little bit)? Not sure what to make of that.

Why do you want only pressure on 1 person to start the game? Doesnt make sense, a wagon shouldn't be formed on page 1 for the most part imo

Disagree but don't think the sentiment itself is scummy; I see it frequently enough from town. In general 27 looks a bit +town to me.

i actually kinda agree with the hockey suspicion, i scoped out the starts of his games and the early buttering people up doesn't really feel like his town play, which is usually more fluffposting, banter, and discussing mechanics. i only see one scum game in his history but he acted closer to this. it's not an open so there's no mechanics to discuss here, but still, he feels like more of an outsider. and like he's forcing himself to make a meaningful post with commentary on the game even when not much has happened, so he can look more town and get people off his back. feels like he's doing it because he thinks he has to instead of because it's his honest thoughts.

VOTE: HockeyFan

Not crazy about this read, fluffposting is in general a way easier town meta for scum to emulate than actually contributing and I don't think a sample size of one scum game is a good basis for a meta read claiming the opposite.

Also I do feel a little bad for so much pressure on someone who is genuinely trying, so Hockey can be Hockey in peace for now

This makes no sense to me. If you think Hockey is scum then keep pushing him until he cracks, if you think he's town then don't say you "feel bad," say he's town. What even is this?

Kind of fluffy posting here; the only really alignment-relevant thing in the post is the "town vibes" on Andante.

ive been pretty busy today

Busy with maf plans so soon?

VOTE: 0verki11

this is dumb, back on hockey

vote:hockeyfan

like 27 is legit scummy. I assume the reason that you feel sorry for him is b/c he's always wagoned but I don't think thats a good reason to stop wagoning him.

Agree with the sentiment even if I still don't get the Hockey wagon.

Stephen A. Smith coming in with an instant read list in 71 is a good look even if I don't know where it's coming from, early town pings.

you said I replaced in and threw a random list at the thread on page three and this makes me scum

explain your train of thought

how do you get from random list to scumbag

Really like Stephen for town based on the attitude in this and followup posts. I'm not at all as convinced as he appears to be that Dwlee's responses make him definite scum but then I'm not sure if he really believes it either or is just taking that stance for the sake of the push.

Oh before I go
VOTE: Scorpius
I'm pretty sure he literally scum slipped by saying him and greeting should try to play into our fight

Read 142 and tell me what the hell that means other than my interpretation of it (but don't post it til Scorpius explains it himself)

If you actually want to vote scum go here, Stephen

Oh wait, Greeting is literally the name of a player in the game? I ignored that post because I thought he was just saying "Greetings"

Oh I understand what you meant
UNVOTE:
><

I don't. Can you explain? Because I actually took this scumslip theory seriously until I saw you retract it.

Where does the Greeting sus come from? Idt they've done anything AI(they have like 4 posts)

This seems to be answering its own question (inactivity is a good enough reason to have someone as suspect #4)

maybe stephen town for continuing to persits 1 thing instead of just letting it go(cuz it doesn't benefit him as mafia to do this).

This depends on who Stephen's main is

...I guess, but this seems like trying to keep open the possibility Stephen is scum when it doesn't look likely that he is.

can we get a "lay off the weed one"?




PLEEEEASSEE??

Are you planning to play the game? Only real contentful post is 44 and that's just picking on something easy to pick on.

Where does the Greeting sus come from? Idt they've done anything AI(they have like 4 posts)

I didn't like any of his three posts

stephen looks a lot worse off that than dwlee does to me. pushing a pointless point and acting like you caught someone in something? hmm. i can see a certain type of scum player doing that, whether because he really thinks he has a point (he doesn't, dwlee is right here) or because he knows that dumb extended fights like that a lot of times will make others skim and assume both are town

I need you to expand on this. Why would Steven do this as scum? He spent 2 pages trying to get an answer for a mostly "mild" sus from Dwlee. If stephen is mafia, he can really just ignore dwlee's read(or play it off), what is the benefit of doing what stephen did as scum there?

This is pretty much what I was thinking which makes me continue to like HockeyFan here.

I need you to expand on this. Why would Steven do this as scum? He spent 2 pages trying to get an answer for a mostly "mild" sus from Dwlee. If stephen is mafia, he can really just ignore dwlee's read(or play it off), what is the benefit of doing what stephen did as scum there?

there are people who just play aggressively. not everyone will just ignore attacks and play passive, some people as scum like to push back and out-pressure and just overwhelm whoever is arguing against them. i think it's actually MORE likely that he is scum because of it being a small mild point, because it means that he's forcing the argument where there totally doesn't have to be one. town probably wouldn't care because it's a minor point that should be obvious

the other benefit of that aggressive play is that you'll get people like this saying "why would mafia do that???" when it's actually super easy to do and more fun and works a lot of the time

Also like fireisredsir for town; I think it's easier for scum to just lean into the simple "Stephen is town because trying hard" read instead of trying to argue the other side.

tbh this entire interaction doesnt seem AI at all

Am I really the only one that finds this bad?

Stephan had a list of scumreads for ??? reason. DW was pissed b/c he was on it and it was unexplained. It's content. Deciphering wich alignment the content comes from can be tricky but just throwing your hands up and saying that it was meaningless is dumb


and scummy

This I can sort of agree with, except that in the same post HockeyFan says: "maybe stephen town for continuing to persits 1 thing instead of just letting it go(cuz it doesn't benefit him as mafia to do this)." And follows up by arguing Stephen is town. The line itself is kind of bad out of context I agree.

Too long to quote but this is a very uncharitable post. Criticizes wavemode for making one fluff post even though he immediately followed up with actual reads; criticizes those reads themselves because "'probably' and 'slightly' mean nothing"(???), conflates

gut read

and

random vote

, overall looks like nonsense to me. Wavemode's mostly dismissive response in 214 is exactly what it deserves.

And first real town lean for me goes to wavemode.

On the other hand, this reaction is

abrupt

in a way that I don't expect to see from scum. If Scorpious were scum trying to shitpush wavemode I'd expect them to interpret 214 as scummy instead of instantly changing direction and saying they're town after all.

There, happy?

Okay, now I understand 142

Greeting's 228 and 229 are decent, gamesolvey posts that make me lean town there. In particular:

I suppose this could be a cause for concern though:

I probs have Dwlee as town(for now) for 16,20 and 34

I've played with

Dwlee99

in some games and I've found their playstyle to be generally quite nullish, and this game is no exception. Maybe but for that bizarre squabble with

Stephen A Smith

, but I don't see their participation in it as town-indicative either.

What makes you think that's a townslot?

is a good thing to be questioning. (HockeyFan's answer in 232 seems pretty satisfactory to me given he's not claiming hard conclusive townread)

Re: "The exchange"

I've been in DWlee's shoes recently. Stephen would argue the color of the sky with them. Every time a legit answer is run in a circle it gives someone a chance to misrep the original answer. I don't like what he's doing. The entire character(Stephen) and more likely than not the game opening, and maybe even the entire game is already being played as some sort of gambit. its all pre meditated. Not saying thats AI at all because obviously there is no way to know what they will roll,but I feel this character would have been installed regardless of green or red.

Dwlee really never did explicitly answer this question though, just responded with incredulity that any explicit answer was expected. Even if they thought the question was being asked in bad faith it should still be possible to give some kind of answer beyond "do I really need to explain this?" That fact seems really obvious to me in the exchange and it seems like people are ignoring it when they accuse Stephen of arguing in circles. Belaboring a point maybe, but that's different.

what about wave's 214 did u find town? Im not really sure how this post changes your read on them

I felt the answers were genuinely written. There was no defiance in any of it. My main reason for that line of question was to get more of a tone.and writing style. Not necessarily concrete information.

I like to look at things a little differently when I play. Of course there are the mechanics and rules and whatnot but so many people neglect other things like tone.

I also watch the games for changes in a writer’s punctuation. It can be a great tell, especially if it varies.
I(we) all have a solid baseline on how wave writes when they feel relaxed and not under a lot of pressure.

I agree they were genuinely written but how does saying stuff like "You're right" or "It doesnt" lean more towards town then it does mafia? that's the part I dont get. It's intresting to me that you TR that post based off the tone, cuz it didnt really tell me much, can u expand on this

It's hard to explain tone, but I tend to agree with Scorpious here. I think wavemode's response suggests he is really not afraid of being scumread. Responding to a claim that his posts aren't solving the game or saying all that much by freely admitting "no, they aren't" and just blowing off the suggestion that there is anything scummy about that.

HockeyFan wagon is dumb unless he's done something else in the following 18 pages to make it good.

Players who have given me some reason to townread them so far:

wavemode, fireisredsir, Scorpious, Stephen A Smith, Greeting, HockeyFan

[Umlaut]

The catchup continues

Spoiler: Pages 11-15

i don't really scumread wave for the post, but i did think it was interesting that he said that he townread steve for offering zero explanation for his reads, feeling no need to justify himself, etc., when wave did that very same thing himself in the same post. it feels a little too clean and lines up too nicely, ya know? seemed like it could have been intentional, doing the same thing that he is then saying is a townie thing to do. i do think he could have done it as town, but i think it's not giving him enough credit to townread him for the post

I don't really buy this reasoning. Like, I understand what it's saying but it seems more like a thing one could imagine making sense for scum to do than a thing scum actually does.

Frozen Angel's read-in is mostly fine, a few comments:

Fast switch between these two posts. I always find fast switches scummy. Town mindset is way more progressive than branching. Branching is what scum mindsets prefer so they can add themself to the discussions and gain others' trust.

This is weird because I disagree on both counts: I don't think this is much of a switch, but also I don't think fast switches are at all scummy. The opposite, really: making a big deal about wanting to go one way only to suddenly go another way is more extra-credit work than I expect from scum. If anything I would think this pair of posts is suspicious for the opposite reason: because 33 seems almost like "advertising" a willingness to eventually move to HockeyFan and setting up for 37.

This part of this post is giving me all sorts of vibes. for one it seems you have knowledge that the people you are dealing with are genuinely sus at you. And for someone who was just defending their meta by bringing meta examples, this seems like a contradictory mindset.

Then it's a response to someone who just unvoted you for literally no reason. It gives me the vibe that you want to either make them feel good about doing that (which is contradictory to a usual town mindset who wants the game to be solved - as a town you should have questioned it because of that reason) but also gives the vibe that you were nervous about the votes on you when it's only page 3 and literally no one was voting with a solid reason. or it feels distancing, as you knew the intention of their vote on you, and you don't care about their fast switch.

This is actually a good point and the first argument against HockeyFan that I can really buy. In general Frozen Angel's reads make a lot of sense to me.

Greeting,
We need a centered Stephen a VS DWLEE stat!!!

Also, Stephen is my new favorite player, I read every post in his voice.

getting extra town vibes here. again they saw what I clearly see too

...er, except this one. Did you quote the wrong post or something?

Why would Steven do this as scum?

"to seem townie" is the simple answer to any question of the form "why would he do that as scum?" ...

Hated the hockey's question. Liked the answer given. Such an absurd question to ask.

Doing whatever he did is not the way scum wants to "seem townie". Like imagine this, you, a player seemingly thrust yourself into the thread and cause chaos to give yourself more attention then originally. Why would you do that as scum?

Pretty much 100% sure HockeyFan and Stephen are not scum together based on this post.

wavemode feels off to me... like, I had vote overkill, then this.. like "here's some reads, I'll vote here, and say nothing" why? "ehhh just gut"
doesn't feel towny to me

This feels very surface-level to me, assuming that "off" is meant to imply "scummy."

Did you really just ask this? like, "Why would scum just tunnel a weak thing" the benefit is call spamming the thread to make it hard for town to keep up. yes maf also hate spammed threads, but like me looking at 300 posts knowing I'm behind... very overwhelming. this is maf points to Hockey

Same problem as above. I understand the answer itself to the question, I even understand being surprised he needs to ask, but why is it maf points to ask the question? There's something missing in the chain of reasoning here, like we're jumping straight from bad -> scummy.

Fire is town. Quite certain there.

@297 no clue, but you with that post feels like you'r trying to send stephen on a tangent with something not related to the game, right as stephen was having good lines

Stephen A Smith is a very in your face sports debator. He is basically what is being represented so exquisitely in this game.

Lebron James is a very famous basketball player that he talks about allllllll the time.

He is also on a sports network that is becoming notorious for being one one side of the political spectrum,and for some reason Lebron James (the basketball player) feels the need to speak on many social issues.

Hence the joke..there ws no intent to spur on a tangent about nothing..

If you read me as scum, fine,but if its based on that,there is the reasoning.

Kind of hate that Scorpious is even taking this accusation seriously enough to defend himself from it. That feels unfair since Andante seems to be seriously pushing him on it but I still get a bad feeling from it.

@frozen angel, hm i don't get that from scorpious' post. looks like he's saying "y'all are misbehaving" and "this gimmick account is fun". don't really see that as similar to your take, which has a real opinion. seems more like he is acknowledging it without actually saying anything about it. he does go back later and look at it more closely, but idk, just seemed like a weird post to get town vibes from due to agreement

this

I guess I like andates latest catch up posts. at first I felt she is just jumping on the TR made on stephen and scum read on hockey but it feels more natural now and I can follow the thoughts.

What do you like about them? They seem terrible to me, her reasoning on Scorpious and wavemode and HockeyFan are all tenuous at best for the reasons I already gave.

what is the problem? it's not even like I'm voting anyone right now, just giving thoughts

I hate hate hate hate this post, Andante officially my top scumread now. What an absurd thing to get defensive about. Scorpious asks her to explain a read progression and she responds as if he accused her of something.

One last thing about “the list”

I was told why I was scum read. Based on me trying to re direct posting. Fair.

Then I ask if they knew who SAS really was and they said no.

I feel I was very helpful in explaining how my scum read comment wasn’t that at all, and was STILL on the bottom of the list. Surely I’d move up a notch or two based on that.

Strongest and really only sr at the moment and I gotta clear this joke vote. So.


VOTE: Andante

I have to ask why this took you so long? If your old vote was a joke vote why wouldn't you vote Andante as soon as you found her >rand scum instead of waiting until highly confident?

i cannot imagine why anyone would have an eyes without a face read in either direction unless they are process of elimination sorting, but we can ignore that for now

217 is slightly bad, to me. it feels like a "low hanging fruit" read, a read you write when you're trying to come up with a reason to townread someone. like "oh of course I would townread these guys because they participated in RVS ending". I meeeean, would you? really? people are rarely genuinely that naive. also, no mention of scorp, who quite literally did end RVS

that alone probably wouldn't amount to a scumlean if eyes had gone on to contribute more after that. but no, even with all the shit that was going on in the game at the time, all we got from eyes was that pointless comment. and yet his last visited time on the site is 8 hours later. never decided to come back and give more thoughts. hm

+1 Insightful

nero cain, scorpious, eyes without a face are giving me scum vibes

explain the nero read? an answer of "ehh idk gut" will no longer be accepted

I don't fully follow 65. I get it, andante said 27 was scummy and some people agreed. you're just going to sheep that as your whole reason for voting hockey? there's a lot more in hockeyfan's ISO than 27 and 155

and I don't follow his 197 either. nero himself seems unsure of stephen's alignment, and unsure of the motive for his aggression, in his own 255. so why is hockeyfan being unsure of that such a problem. also, hockeyfan is nowhere near the only person who said they felt the argument was NAI. and also also, his basic argument that this behavior is scummy doesn't really make a ton of sense. overall this feels like a big reach to justify his wagon position

every time nero posts I feel like I keep asking myself whether he's really trying to solve this game, or just trying to appear like he is. and I keep arriving at the latter being more likely, when I compare this game to past games I've played with him

also, more generally: my knee-jerk reaction to your question is to counter-question, why does a scum read NEED to not be gut? Let's say my nero read had been pure gut. I think if I were actively trying to convince people to vote nero with me, the discussion of whether I have logical reasoning becomes more relevant. but if it's just a gut read and I'm not even voting him, I don't quite see what the problem with that is. I guess I'm just trying to understand where you're coming from with this post? I will probably have gut reads in the future, do you believe they should not be shared?

Same as above; wavemode very likely town.

I''ve moved Wave from town lean to null

?????

Caught myself just wanting to scroll past everything and also it's past my bedtime so I'm stopping here for now.

Townreading Frozen Angel; scumreading Andante; think wavemode made decent points about Eyes/Nero and want to take another look at them after catch-up.

[Umlaut]

Haven't done more catchup and probably won't have time to do more today since I'm at work (and then doing Valentine's Day stuff) but I like that both Fire and Frozen seem to have actually made the effort to read what I've written so far. And I also like that Frozen is arguing points with me even though I called her town.

scum are far more likely to claim a PR to get out of an elimination than town unless said town is a pr. Not impossible that we did hit a town pr and I guess the correct play might be to give him a day or 2

Agree with others this is ugly, that first sentence compresses to "town who isn't a PR is unlikely to say they are" which is not exactly a revelation.

[Umlaut]

I'm pretty sure Nero is town here

Why?

[Umlaut]

Saw Scorpious getting on my case for being inactive yesterday. If only I had said in advance that I would be busy that day with RL things.

Haven't done more catchup and probably won't have time to do more today since I'm at work (and then doing Valentine's Day stuff)

Oh yeah, I did. Fuck off.

I am still busy but will try and make more time for this game today, at least this evening (CST). Doesn't look like Andante ever answered my question about why Nero is town.

[Umlaut]

I'm just going to give up on trying to catch up with this game since there have been 15 more pages posted since I started reading the first 15 pages, and

VOTE: Nero Cain

because nothing I've seen from him has made me think he's town, and I really disliked his reaction to the HockeyFan claim.

[Umlaut]

Will plan to at least catch up on the new stuff tonight

[Umlaut]

Can we fast forward to the bit where everyone realises nero/fa is s/s?

Haven't read, why is FA scum?

[Umlaut]

Okay, I'm just trying to catch up from my last post and even that is a ridiculous amount of reading but I have to ask if Andante is possibly on drugs based on her behavior around the Nero wagon on pages 49+ or so

[Umlaut]

Not commenting on everything because I've seen enough complaints about wall posts and don't want to exacerbate it (also I don't want to read them)

Doesn't look like Andante ever answered my question about why Nero is town.

Not gonna lie, probably didn't see it, and if this is in regards to the list I posted early, 6/9 is not calling someone town lol

It was in regards to 745.

I’d like more from umlaut. We have zero on that slot. A catch up to 15 the a benign question. When do we consider limming that slot?

regardless, when do we consider limming that slot? as of now i feel we lose nothing except a place for scum to hide,and who knows,maybe we get lucky.

VOTE: umlaut

This slot is useless right now. Will gladly remove vote if content is produced. Just a smart play to get rid of this slot.

how else should we interpret this other than you want to lim them for the hell of it?

is this post real? you quoted three reason why its not for the hell of it.

This feels like you're pushing a policy launch when there are actual reads to be made. I would get it if you were pushing me as a compromise at EOD but why would "inactive" be enough to make me your #1 launch candidate?

lol yall are just funny tbh, like, these massive 1v1 cases... what is that actually doing to find maf? like if you think about it, if you spend all your effort tunneling someone, you'll get locked into "They must be scum!!" and like, you'll refuse to TR them.. so then you spend page after page making wallposts on why that person is maf, so then you have town like me. Who look at the thread, and go "ok nah.. not jumping into that" so then town like me just kinda ignore the thread, get super behind, and at the end of deadline, we'll just end up random voting... like, all these 1v1s are just so weird to me, like, why so many!!! why not just work together on reads? like if I bus my partner for you to tr me.. maf gone. easy!!! not 1000 posts of "meta this, meta says you maf!" nonsense

Don't like this post because it feels like Andante is trying to position herself as the "voice of reason"

Like what are you threatening me off? I'm not backing off from my read unless if you show me where I'm wrong with it or have other explanations for it.

You think I will not fix my read if I realize I'm wrong with it?

You think I will not call out scum cause no one else is pushing him but me?

Very +town

Not actually I have a town read on the worst for overkill last post not even realizing he is replaced out and worst reacting in real time to discussions felt natuaral. And stephen is an early town lean of mine for his early reation test but i have less confidence with that read.

Thoughts on a Nero Umlaut scum team?

This is just sad, why in the world would you try to push me and Nero as a team when you yourself claim I have done nothing and therefore have no associatives?

bored VT

wait, I just had the most random realization about this post

When did you ever see me play VT?

I kind of like this realization, it suggests Dwlee is going back and rereading and actually cares to try and sort people accurately, don't know why Andante seems to dislike it.

I'm pretty sure Nero is town here, unsure on Frozen so far

what changed from this andante?

cause Nero was reminding me of a Nero I played with before in a huge game, actually never checked the alignment there lol

yeah no, nero was town there, I'm sheeping Frozen cause why not?

This is... really weird, why would you trust Frozen's read over your own?

Adante - This looked like the easiest bus in history by jumping on that wagon right before she couldn't without hammering without giving a fuck about who it is on and by making that switch

and she literally admitted to doing the switch for no reason while still claiming she is town reading nero

Am I losing my mind or is this really happening

andante's blatant disregard for the life of one of her townreads is a thing right? this isn't a mirage?

QFT on both of these

I even see it as a possibility that we have 3 scum in scorp andante and nero right now and it all make so much sense to me that I want to even cry

Do you think Andante and Scorpious really bus Nero back to back? I mean it's possible but do you think it's the most likely thing to have happened?

[Umlaut]

What's the record for largest amount of posts on Day 1 in a Mini Normal? We might be heading towards that.

I was in a game that reached page 94 on day 1

and then got re-rolled because of a mod error.

[Umlaut]

though that was actually an open, so I guess not a counterexample.

[Umlaut]

I could vote Andante but Nero is still the bigger wagon and I like it more.

Scorp's continued insistence on pushing me is so dumb that I don't think it comes from scum, scum could find someone better to scumread.

[Umlaut]

I like its chances of hitting scum

[Umlaut]

Not going to go back through a zillion posts

again

to make a case on Nero that's already been made but: Vote onto Hockey wagon early was bad, hedgey fence-sitting "this claim is probably fake unless it's real" reaction was bad and exactly what I expect from scum hoping to let a miselim go through without getting blamed for it, hyperdefensive response to my asking Andante to explain her townread, comes out badly in back-and-forth with FA, haven't seen anything particularly "I wouldn't expect that from scum" to counter any of this

[Umlaut]

another greeting point. the progression from 228 to 405 is weird in a similar way to what I pointed out in 1346. first he is scumreading Stephen and thinks his argument and pressure is way out of line, his play is disruptive, his rebuffs are aggressive, and he plans to vote there until Stephen convinces him he's town. then in 405, when questioned on that, he says he got nothing of the argument besides the fact that it happened, which is not what he said before and dodges frozen's 2nd point completely. he then never mentions Stephen again except to ask why he's scumreading hockey, and then has him as a light green townread in 1074. the progression from scumread to townread is fine, i guess, since i think Stephen started looking more towny,

but the way that he kind of softens towards null when put under questioning is really scummy imo

Emphasis mine. When did this last thing happen? Greeting hasn't made another substantial post since 1074.

[Umlaut]

Oh, I thought you were saying he "soften[ed] toward null"

after

stating a townread. Gotcha.

VOTE: Stephen A Smith until they convince me they're town.

Greeting, when did Stephen convince you he was town?

[Umlaut]

I know you scum read him for other reasons. but said that you felt scum were jumping on the wagon, and that made you more confident of him being scum. are you taking that back now?

No There was a reason that shit show happened on his wagon. and how the wagoin is getting dismantled right now, without him actually reacting to it under pressure.

I really want his flip even more now because of it. call me out for a confirmation bias or whatever but he is not flipping green in this

If you were to find that scum

didn't

jump onto his wagon would that make you

less

convinced he was scum? If you get more convinced in that case too, then one or the other has to be an error.

I think Nero is a likely scum but I also think you are tunneled.

[Umlaut]

Oh, I thought you were saying he "soften[ed] toward null"

after

stating a townread. Gotcha.

VOTE: Stephen A Smith until they convince me they're town.

Greeting, when did Stephen convince you he was town?

This post.

[snip]

Made me think about

HockeyFan

's claim more deeply. Even if I'm still choosing to believe it (or at least leave it for the time being), it is a very valid point and it points to

Stephen A Smith

being town.

Of course, Mr. ESPN is only a light green read.

I can believe that's a reason to give them a few town points but it's not, like, something that would turn my read all the way around on someone I otherwise thought was scummy, which you did as of 228. Is there any more than that?

[Umlaut]

nah jumping on a wagon right away p much always looks opportunistic and makes the people doing it look worse. if he had voted scorp instead you would have said that he looked scummy for that too, you can't have both

Not gonna lie Nero... there is a point here, like, jumping on the Greeting wagon just looks like self preservation, like "oh? Greeting wagon better than me? yes!" I did notice that though

I can't tell who you are (dis)agreeing with here, do you think Nero jumping onto Greeting is scummy or not scummy? You're saying you agree with Red but addressing your comment to Nero whom Red is defending

[Umlaut]

idk what I want here.. I don't want this nero wagon to go through, I don't like too many on the wagon. I want a coaster d1

Spoiler: Here's a coaster for you

Do you like it?

[Umlaut]

idk what I want here.. I don't want this nero wagon to go through, I don't like too many on the wagon. I want a coaster d1

me too

So did you ever want the Nero wagon? Or if not why were you on it?

[Umlaut]

Scorpious

Yes or no, do you currently think Nero is scum?

[Umlaut]

I feel like Scorpius just doesn't know what a scumtell is.

[Umlaut]

Not especially interested in Greeting wagon, I feel like he's answered my questions adequately and the case doesn't really impress me. This is a hard game to keep caught up with and I don't think Greeting struggling with that is indicative of anything.

We're getting kind of short on time. Nero wagon seems to have disintegrated but it's come back from that before and I have hope it will again. Failing that, someone sell me on something else because I agree with Worst there are a lot of people in the "wouldn't be too sad if they died" zone.

[Umlaut]

For all those who are piling up on Scorpious please refute my logic here so I can see why you disagree.

UNVOTE: Nero does not need to be E-1 at this moment

This doesn't come from scum I don't think. If Nero is Town scum would stand their ground and wait for a hammer. If Nero is Scum the unvote brings a lot of attention to Scorpious once Nero is flipped.

Didn't bother to respond to this when you said it but I think the former point is weaker of the two, scum could easily slip off a wagon so as to be blameless for it while not saying anything that would really stop it ("E-1 is too high" is not really an argument for Nero town so isn't likely to persuade anyone else off)

[Umlaut]

Not saying that's what happened but I don't think it's a good argument to suggest it

couldn't

or wouldn't happen

[Umlaut]

What changed is the scum duck realised my miselimination would incriminate her so they quietly moved away to the next thing that’s stealing the spotlight.

This is kind of a weird claim. Why would the duck suddenly realize this now after pushing you all this time?

[Umlaut]

Frozen is very passionate about this... even though I think it's town, I'll go with you here, I know how it can be when you think you're on to something, and no one's listening, sorry Nero!! Frozen is the most passionate one here! I'd at least like to flip her top SR to then see where reads go afterwards.

VOTE: Nero

Spoiler: For Andante ONLY

Eyes please

Spoiler: For Dwlee99 ONLY

Hmmm you do bring up a good point... ughh that makes 4 I'm looking at...

I'm busy today, I'll make some sort of decision later
UNVOTE:

Can we launch this if we can't launch Nero? This is the second time Andante has pulled the "I'll vote Nero while maintaining that I townread him" move (and jumped back off the moment someone gave her an excuse)

[Umlaut]

Actually let's try it.

VOTE: Andante

FA, Fire, join me here?

Pedit: so now Nero is getting votes. I'll go back there if it looks like it might actually reach majority but the way it's gone up and down a million times I'm not optimistic

[Umlaut]

Hammer is real?

[Umlaut]

hi let's get greeting outta here

Actually let's try it.

VOTE: Andante

FA, Fire, join me here?

Pedit: so now Nero is getting votes. I'll go back there if it looks like it might actually reach majority but the way it's gone up and down a million times I'm not optimistic

temptinggggg

I would join this.

Everyone saying they would do it but no one actually doing it

[Umlaut]

I don't really get y u scum read me

I'm honestly not sure I do? (I haven't read what most people seen to take issue with you for and I glaze over their cases) but all the cool kids are doing it so it must result in something interesting

Noting this exchange for later, pre-flip associatives are "bad" but I don't want to forget about it if one of them flips

[Umlaut]

My first thought is that someone's desperate to frame Nero. Greeting was his counterwagon and only Frozen was voting him along with Greeting.

This means that once again I won't be voting Nero today. In fact that's the first thing I have decided to do (or not to do actually) today.

I think you are overthinking this.

VOTE: Nero Cain

[Umlaut]

because Frozen Angel wanted to kill you and now she's dead and if you were town I imagine the scum would let her stay alive to scream for another 80 pages about how you are lock scum and need to die.

See, that's where I'm not certain Nero kills Frozen... Frozen was probably killed cause maf couldn't keep up (such as wave) like, Froen was tunneling Nero and me, neither of us died day , so like, Frozen isn't a major threat to the maf team, however, all the posting meant maf couldn't keep up, which is a major issue for maf

And if Nero does flip town this seems TMI to me.

[Umlaut]

My first thought is that someone's desperate to frame Nero. Greeting was his counterwagon and only Frozen was voting him along with Greeting.

This means that once again I won't be voting Nero today. In fact that's the first thing I have decided to do (or not to do actually) today.

I think you are overthinking this.

VOTE: Nero Cain

Yeah? Then explain to me how scum gets to E-2 less than 2 [pages] from the start of the day without an explicit guilty on them

By just... having four votes on them? I don't feel like any special explanation is needed here.

Why do you think it's impossible for four people out of eleven to vote scum at the start of the day?

[Umlaut]

Four different people argued against it including two of my strongest townreads and they can't all be scum, so I guess I stand corrected

This is kind of strangely worded. Did you find their arguments

convincing

or were you just convinced by the number of them?

[Umlaut]

Do you actually want me to read more of the game before I flip my number one suspect

No, but sell me on who Eyes' partner is, I'm not seeing one

Who would you think Eyes partner's are with a green flip?

uhhh

what

Duh, I meant who was the team if he flipped green.

UHHHH Im not really fond of making partner reads when we dont have scum flips but stephen/andante/someone? Not sure

?????

[Umlaut]

Hockey, can you explain the above pair of posts because the second makes the first look like just looking for excuses not to vote Eyes

[Umlaut]

uh i misworded the "parnter reads", cuz the question was "who is the team if eyes flips green", and I believe stephen/andante could be paired

I'm not sure this really answers my question? Though to be fair my question was just "explain"

Why do you expect Dwlee to name a partner for Eyes before you are willing to vote there, but also think trying to make partner reads before a scum flip is a bad idea?

[Umlaut]

I've been pretty meh on Eyes so far and was literally in the middle of writing a post about how I could vote him, then got ninja'd by 2162.

The fact that Nero and Eyes are the two leading wagons, have been all day, and Eyes is

defending

Nero, is enough to sell me on Eyes town for now.

[Umlaut]

Well theres 2 possibillites here that you likely need to look at b4 coming to this conclusion

A. both scum and eyes is trying to make nero look good
B. Eyes, as mafia is defending Nero town to make nero look

bad

Now, I also think Eyes is town, but not because Eyes is defending Nero

Do you really think the advantage of "making Nero look bad" outweighs the immediate advantage of not getting launched? Or that scum!Eyes would think it does?

[Umlaut]

Also you didn't answer 2153

[Umlaut]

@HockeyFan: So you did, sorry.

Why do you expect Dwlee to name a partner for Eyes before you are willing to vote there, but also think trying to make partner reads before a scum flip is a bad idea?

Good question, but Dwlee seemed very adamant on Eyes(almost too tunneled), so i Wanted to see if there was a possible partner [they] could name

[/quote]
Okay... but like, what were you planning to do with the answer? If they can/can't name a partner what does that mean for your reads?

[Umlaut]

screwed up that quote, HockeyFan responded to my question inline and I'm responding to that

[Umlaut]

Datisi has more posts than Umlaut... I understand Umlaut replaced in, but I don't see any like "I'm solving!" there it's just kinda reacting to the dumb stuff us town talked about

I plead guilty to this, I thought I would be more into this game because I was more into my last few games but I happened to pick up a bunch of new IRL activities/responsibilities around the same time I joined this one and my attention is just... fragmented. I hope at some point that will change but it's hard to say, tbh

I really do need to do more, but haven't found a whole lot to latch on to despite the tremendous amount of 'content' from yesterday (it might help to know that I am habitually unable to read tremendously hyperactive games). HockeyFan's answers to my questions today were okay, I was hoping to get something out of them but didn't. Still think he's probably town. Still think Eyes, fire, Stephen is town. Still think Nero is scum. Don't really get the suspicion of wavemode, last time I was paying attention to them I found them pretty towny, maybe someone can make the elevator pitch for me.

[Umlaut]

Adante could be a pr with a result.

I don't want to repeat what's already been said but, uh, what possible purpose could be served by posting this

[Umlaut]

I have mechanical information suggesting eyes is scum lol

Is this information something that asking Eyes to claim (knowing only that you have incriminating information, and not its nature) would help solidify?

[Umlaut]

Hmm.

Still want to give them a chance to revise that claim before launching them over it (townies fakeclaim VT all the time even though they shouldn't) but in principle I'm willing to vote them.

[Umlaut]

eyes literally went "im vt yeet me over hockey" yesterday

Consider whether there is any role other than VT who might ever willingly eat the yeet.

("Eat the yeet" is fun to say)

[Umlaut]

eh stephen TMI'd, I don't feel bad

Explain? Not seeing the TMI in their posts

[Umlaut]

VOTE: umlaut

umlaut is maf

Is Eyes still my partner or did you change your mind about that part?

[Umlaut]

ahh ok I think I see what you're saying now!! my bad!! I'm kinda only half reading, Stephen, you want Nero here? I can abandon my Umlaut SR for a nero vote. Nero had gotten significantly worse as the game has gone on

???

Tell me how Nero has gotten worse.

[Umlaut]

ahh ok I think I see what you're saying now!! my bad!! I'm kinda only half reading, Stephen, you want Nero here? I can abandon my Umlaut SR for a nero vote. Nero had gotten significantly worse as the game has gone on

???

Tell me how Nero has gotten worse.

You think Nero's game has gotten better? Please explain more on that...

I asked you first.

I want to know what

you

have seen to make you turn on a dime and vote Nero now.

[Umlaut]

Gaahhh fire why are you answering a question I asked someone else

[Umlaut]

I'm an even night gunsmith so lets not vote town and TW instead.

UNVOTE: Nero

Provisionally accepting this claim, may revisit later depending on what happens. Nero would be a good investigation target if someone has an investigation that distinguishes Town Gunsmith from Mafia [Whatever].

Hockey, can you say whether you are a backup gunsmith specifically, or a backup of something else? (No need to say what else if not gunsmith)

also I don't buy you're a town pr... you were on e-1 before,had like no reaction to it

Why is this bad? If I'm a PR I don't claim until I absolutely have to.

[Umlaut]

I felt like Nero was obviously a PR even D1 sad

Did you hint at this anywhere?

[Umlaut]

Nero, tell me why TW.

[Umlaut]

Actually no

VOTE: Andante

Instantly disbelieving a PR claim usually comes from scum imo

I felt like Nero was obviously a PR even D1 sad

Did you hint at this anywhere?

By not voting the Nero wagon?

That means you thought he was obviously town, not obviously a PR. I'm not saying you

should

have hinted at this just asking if you

did

.

[Umlaut]

Instantly disbelieving a PR claim usually comes from scum imo

I find the opposite is true... scum suffer from TMI, thus they often feel like they *have* to believe claims or else they will look bad once it turns out they are wrong

the only times I've seen someone instantly disbelieve a pre-lylo claim (except a guilty on themself, of course), they've been town

in fact just yesterday fire did not believe hockey's claim. how was that different?

I didn't even remember that fire disbelieved hockey's claim. I guess it's only different because I already find Fire towny anyway and Andante I... don't.

I suppose that's a bit confbiasy but I'm not going to scumread someone just for the one thing even if it is +scum, in general I've found Andante's play all over the place and still think her saying that she would/wouldn't/would vote Nero depending on whether that's where the town is going at that moment to be awful, particularly on the condition Nero is town.

[Umlaut]

is Nero's role mechanically possible? I need the big brains for this one.

How would it not be possible? Even-Night Gunsmith is a normal role, that's all that's required.

[Umlaut]

I swear we are never going to kill eyes lol

If there is a vigilante please for the love of god shoot eyes tyvm

Do you really believe scum doubles down on a VT claim when told someone has a mech guilty on them?

[Umlaut]

I swear we are never going to kill eyes lol

If there is a vigilante please for the love of god shoot eyes tyvm

Do you really believe scum doubles down on a VT claim when told someone has a mech guilty on them?

Yes what is the other option

Claim like Ascetic Visitor or some other low- to negative-utility role, and say you were happy to eat a launch because you were probably worse than a VT anyway.

[Umlaut]

what if I told you that I'm a 1-shot rolecop and I know for a fact that hockeyfan is a backup 1-shot gunsmith

so my knee jerk reaction to nero's claim was, how did he know to claim gunsmith of all things? hockey had not told us what he was a backup for

unless they are mafia GS and mafia backup GS? which, wow wtf. but it's technically possible I suppose. still, it's strange to claim that together and become joined at the hip (the typical risk associated with mason fakeclaims)

I believe this 100% (or as close to 100% as I ever believe anything in this game) and think it pretty much clears both Hockey and Nero unless there is some further mechanical revelation to the contrary.

I just can't imagine a setup with town gunsmith and scum backup gunsmith, or vice versa, would pass review, because it's way too swingy (you kill an opposing power role and your own team gets even

more

powerful as a result? That's, like, the opposite of how to keep a game balanced).

I

can

imagine a setup with scum gunsmith and scum backup gunsmith, but I don't believe Hockey and Nero make this sort of absurd all-in in the case where they're both scum. If they did it should be obvious eventually.

Pedit

never mind

VOTE: Nero

[Umlaut]

is Nero's role mechanically possible? I need the big brains for this one.

How would it not be possible? Even-Night Gunsmith is a normal role, that's all that's required.

you were like strongly defending Nero too, not even a question for a second if it were real... like there's no way we have a backup for an even night gs...

I have seen (and put in my own games) much weirder things than a backup for an even-night gunsmith. I don't even see how the plausibility of the claim is an issue here, the problem with it is that Nero turned out to be scum (like I said he was for

two days

), not that the claim itself was implausible.

Anyway, how was I not questioning it for a second? This was my response:

Provisionally accepting this claim, may revisit later depending on what happens. Nero would be a good investigation target if someone has an investigation that distinguishes Town Gunsmith from Mafia [Whatever].

Hockey, can you say whether you are a backup gunsmith specifically, or a backup of something else? (No need to say what else if not gunsmith)

If you want to go after people who were defending Nero then I am like the worst possible choice except maybe FA who is already dead.

[Umlaut]

But I really don't think scum!Nero pushes a wagon on his buddy

a la

2449 right after fakeclaiming, so it seems kind of implausible that Nero and Andante are scum together.

fam can we get dwlee now

Actually yeah.

VOTE: Dwlee

Was not at all impressed with their trying to take credit for a 'prediction' that Nero was a PR that they couldn't at all back up having made. Unless someone can point to a crumb that he made and Dwlee picked up, it seems more like they already knew what Nero was going to claim.

[Umlaut]

Well this is easy

VOTE: Scorpius

[Umlaut]

Okay can we get a claim from... umlaut. It might be useful going into night phase if I can guess wave's third role lol

No you may not.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Scorpius

I need to think a little more about this. Scorp was

hard

pushing the Nero wagon yesterday and didn't even back off after his claim which would have been the natural time for distancing scum to find something else to do. And claiming VT instead of something possibly compatible with Wave's result is a weird move for scum. (Though also it would be hard to come up with anything compatible with that result so maybe not

so

so weird but still a little weird.)

I don't see a reason for scum!wave to 1v1 Scorpius like this but people do dumb things all the time. Probably the best way to resolve it is just to launch Scorp. But all the same I want to think about whether I really believe it or not

[Umlaut]

Combined roleblocker rolestopper - roleblocks and prevents roles from successfully targeting the target

Alien enabler implies alien of some sort exists. Town or scum I'm not sure. But if scum they probably wouldn't give scum a jailkeeper and an alien

In general, X Enabler doesn't require that an X exist in the setup. It's maybe more likely than not, but not that much given the current typical normal setup these days. NRG is specifically trying to promote setups that discourage "guess the setup" reasoning so having an alien enabler for no reason is not that far out there.

[Umlaut]

It started with the Nero stuff. I was like "NO WAY NERO REAL!" and Umlaut just kept gunning for me... and like, was voting Scorp, saw the guilty and unvoted? mehhhh didn't like the idea of being solo maf here

This is inaccurate to the point it feels deliberate. I wasn't voting Scorp until after the guilty, and even when I unvoted I still figured (and said) they were probably guilty, just wanted more time to think through the mechanics of it.

this is worth noting. frozen is already 2/4 in [nero, scorp, andante, eyes] and if my gut is right, she is probably 3/3.
i think she is killed regardless of andante's alignment at this point.

This is a pretty decent point; FA seemed like a slightly weird kill to me even given Nero scum but seems not so weird in this case.

all umlaut has done has been tunnel me and defend maf

All I've done is defend maf? Go point to a defense I made of maf in this game.

Anyways, I have a Not-Guilty Result on Stephen so either

A. Dudes Tratior/Mafia Doctor
or B. Hes VT and confrimed town?

Traitor is impossible, because the game would be over. Mafia Doctor is possible but I think it's more likely Stephen is just inno.

Btw I'm gonna claim now because I'm confused af.

I'm a backup vigilante. If you're a vigilante... like... why haven't you shot? Unless I'm just meant as a gunsmith Miller but that's lame

I could believe this role as gunsmith miller but I'm also starting to get wary of the sheer number of PR claims in this game. Though this is more of an anti-PR if there's no vig.

ok i'm just going to out

I'm Alien Voyeur.

I think the last scum is between Dwlee/Hockey because I don't think Datisi puts 5 TPRs in this game

we have 3 lims so we can just elim me/dwlee/hockey and auto win

I want to start with Hockey first because scum leaving the gunsmith alive makes very little sense to me and I don't think we're dealing with a Mafia Doctor.

...Stephen and I are both wary, it seems.

That's a decent point but didn't wave confirm Hockey's PR claim? Do you think they're Mafia Backup 1-Shot Gunsmith? Giving Mafia a PR shot after killing a town PR seems so...

bad

.

here's the thing I guess. I wouldn't gamble the game on either interpretation being correct; I don't share stephen's confidence in datisi being incapable of shaking up his mod meta. I don't assume for a moment that datisi is so strongly in favour of 4 tprs per setup that he's going to fight the normal review group on their notion of balance. I think this setup is designed so that increasing one faction's ev deliberately nerfs their sheer power (as scum die, town power roles get weaker). I think that design ethos shines brighter than some bizarre notion that 10:3 games MUST;!!! have 4 TPRs. I think that notion is kind of silly.

I also dont think its entirely impossible.
But I think it's a goofy excuse to chainsaw though claimed roles at the expense of just chainsawing scumbags.

I'd rather just eliminate potential scumbags until I'm confident I can solve via day stuff.

This is good spec

[Umlaut]

Ducks are somewhere in the PoE but I just don't think they're scum by play today.

I don't see anything unbelievable or suspicious about Town 1-Shot Backup Gunsmith in itself but I am worried about the sheer amount of town power we're talking at this point and I pretty much believe Stephen has to be telling the truth here, so think we will have to resolve HockeyFan eventually. I disagree it's "doing scum's work for them" because if scum were going to kill HockeyFan for us it would have been last night before they used their gunsmith shot. Wave was quite explicit that they had used all their shots and had no more powers left whereas town!Hockey was an immediate danger that could have won the game immediately last night so I am inclined to agree with Stephen that the kill is a very strange choice.

Dwlee claim I'm mostly inclined to just ignore, it 'makes sense' within the setup but the setup is pretty much known at this point so it's not that hard for them to make up something that makes sense.

Need to take a better look at that VCA when I get a moment.

For now:

VOTE: HockeyFan

[Umlaut]

That's a decent point but didn't wave confirm Hockey's PR claim? Do you think they're Mafia Backup 1-Shot Gunsmith? Giving Mafia a PR shot after killing a town PR seems so... bad.

this is where i settle as well...lol

Actually I thought more about it and giving Mafia a gunsmith shot is kind of meaningless since they have not much of anything to use it on. The 1-Shot part is a bit on the weird side I still agree

[Umlaut]

umlaut, what are your solve/s like?

I like you for town, I consider Stephen all-but-confirmed town (reëvaluate at lilo if at all), I've sort of come around on Andante after some reflection because you're right that she really is this incomprehensible as town, so I guess it's between Hockey/Eyes/Dwlee. Probably in that order.

[Umlaut]

Busy today (it's my partner's birthday!!) but popping in to echo the wtf

At first glance I think we have to have scum in the PR claims because there is no other way that kill makes sense to me.

[Umlaut]

idk how well regarded NKA is on MS, but did stephen really kill TW cuz of 2869 lol, cuz if TW was still alive, stephen probs wouldnt be able to push in the PR pool

Hmm.

[Umlaut]

Hockey saying this right after I say I want to yeet in the PR claims makes me feel some kind of way... I think yesterday you wanted to yeet me, Hockey, so what changed?

[Umlaut]

Want to hear opinions from the other two as well

[Umlaut]

if im mafia rb how did u get a no gun check on me?

This kind of looks like a slip (from Hockey). Either:

1. town!Hockey investigated and cleared Stephen and then forgot about it somehow
2. scum!Hockey made up a result on Stephen because he has to give one, then forgot because he never really cared

Of these 2 seems more plausible to me and definitely more plausible than Stephen being a Mafia Doctor (particularly given Dwlee as Town Backups Vigilante already serves the purpose of being a misleading result for gunsmith; misleading results in both directions seems like overkill)

[Umlaut]

Oh yeah, forgot about that

[Umlaut]

i might be willing to yeet andante because i would be embarrassed to lose to scum her

This is a mood.

But no, pretty sure it's just Hockey here. I could imagine a world where it's Andante but I don't see why scum!her would flip to Hockey when she could just say nothing and wait for them to hammer me

[Umlaut]

3018 seems oppurstunic


VOTE: Umulat

This makes no sense at all, I already said I think it's you so how is saying it's unlikely to be Andante opportunistic?

[Umlaut]

VOTE: HockeyFan
Back to E-1

[Umlaut]

The main reason I don't believe all the PR claims are town is not because "it would be impossible for Hockey's role to be town" or "it would be impossible for all these PRs to be legit" but because I can't see a good reason for scum to leave all of them alive unless they are maximizing their cover. Like, if I'm scum here I kill Hockey 100% on night 3, and I think almost anyone else does too (maybe not worst since they said they would do otherwise but most players as sole living scum are going to be more worried about a potential incoming mech guilty from gunsmith than just about anything else) and even if not I at least kill

someone

in the claimed PRs on night 4 (maybe Stephen since imo he is all but conftown).

[Umlaut]

Umlaut are you really just gonna ignore this entire discussion and E-1 hockey?

no, I'm going to E-1 hockey and then reply to the discussion

[Umlaut]

Like I just don't see any reason for Hockey to be alive today as town, and if someone has offered one I missed it

[Umlaut]

Stephen I've pretty much just never believed could be scum. Also by the time he outed role he was just voyeur and not much of a mechanical threat.

Dwlee's role claim is basically negative utility for town so never was a threat in the first place.

[Umlaut]

I acknowledge Mafia 1-Shot Backup Gunsmith is

weird

but it's no weirder than what I'm getting used to from normals at this point. NRG has generally been pushing setups specifically designed for "solve the setup" to be an ineffective strategy.

Last game I ran they suggested I add a Strongman-Finder in a setup with no Strongman (this was not

completely

out of nowhere, it did serve a purpose, but a couple players complained about it after the game)

[Umlaut]

Your role has been known since day 2? Town Backup Gunsmith would definitely be a threat to Mafia as of then

You literally got a shot off (only to somehow forget about your own clear the next day), how is that not a threat?

[Umlaut]

how is a joat that used both of its abilities already stronger than a one shot gunsmith

^

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Dwlee

I was just right on Day 1

Is there something about their posting today that is making you think this or are you just falling back on a day 1 read? What is changing your mind here? I don't see where this is coming from.

[Umlaut]

The part of me that is infinitely paranoid says Stephen seems to be keeping PoE pool as wide as possible but I have been calling him town for so long that I can't handle being wrong about it, and also he's at least mostly cleared, so I'm just going to do my best to ignore that

[Umlaut]

wont be active much today since im sick but uh UNVOTE: maybe it is just andante lmao

I know why Dwlee thinks this because they said why, but why do you think this?

Maybe I'm confbiasing a bit but this feels opportunistic, Hockey started off saying it was Stephen, then said it was me after it was clear there was no interest in a Stephen launch and others were saying I was most likely scum, and now that interest is pivoting away from me and onto Andante Hockey seems to be going that way too.

Who

wouldn't

you vote, Hockey?

[Umlaut]

Hi

[Umlaut]

Haven't had a lot to say, Andante case isn't terrible but I think Hockey's latching on to it is worse than whatever Andante is accused of here in the first place.

[Umlaut]

If we vote out Andante today and she flips green are you going to vote me tomorrow? I feel like you are. Not interested in going with your flow today only to be the game-losing misyeet tomorrow so if you want me to vote Andante you'd better convince me Hockey is town.

[Umlaut]

I feel dumb for not knowing who Stephen's main is now that Dwlee said it's obvious :/

[Umlaut]

Might just hammer hockey cause I'm kinda feeling like maybe it's really as simple as "scum didn't kill the investigative role" but it just feels too simple

I have always been a big proponent of the virtue of simplicity. I think it is much more common for town to lose by WIFOMing themselves out of straightforward conclusions than by accepting them too easily.

[Umlaut]

Fuck it

VOTE: Andante

[Umlaut]

I'd be lying if I said I had much faith in this but with Dwlee saying they'll "decide to hammer or not" it's better than nothing.

[Umlaut]

(also I just had no idea we were so close to deadline)

[Umlaut]

Wait that wasn't even hammer, I forgot Dwlee unvoted.

[Umlaut]

Wait what?

UNVOTE: Andante

Dwlee, wtf with that timer.

[Umlaut]

I realized after I changed my vote that I actually did have some real hope of seeing a red flip, now I need to actually think about things which is annoying

[Umlaut]

I'm going to sleep on it. I think Hockey makes more sense but I kind of think Andante is worse by play (tho she was pretty bad by play in our last game where she was town so I really don't know how to read it)

[Umlaut]

Why don"t you vote him and maybe I'll hammer tomorrow.

[Umlaut]

Yeah okay.

VOTE: HockeyFan

I don't know if "busing" Nero is really beyond scum!Andante because it was pretty weak and happened when Nero was likely going down anyway, which is when even players who "never bus" will vote their partners. But I do see the same sort of frantic complaining I expect from town!Andante so going to trust my own reads here

[Umlaut]

Wtf

Who kills Dwlee when Stephen just made 100% clear he's voting Dwlee today? It doesn't make sense for Stephen and it doesn't make sense for Andante (or me) either.

I mean you can always say something something WIFOM, but Stephen has pretty much shown himself to be the "simple man who thinks simple thoughts" that he claims to be and I think he would just go for the straightforward solution and not rethink everything based on who-benefits-from-this-f3 reasoning

[Umlaut]

I think the sheer wtf-ery of the kills points to Andante, but then I don't know who Stephen really is.

[Umlaut]

I do like bonus points but I like winning more. I need to think about this. Andante is the obvious choice mechanically and by play but I don't understand how she benefits from allowing this endgame.

[Umlaut]

I mean it could be as simple as "Dwlee thinks I'm scum so I'll shoot him" but I don't think Andante is that simpleminded

[Umlaut]

I mean it could be as simple as "Dwlee thinks I'm scum so I'll shoot

them

" but I don't think Andante is that simpleminded

dammit

[Umlaut]

vote count 1.final

with 13 votes in play, it took 7 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

yeet

Greeting

[7]:

fireisredsir

,

Nero Cain

,

Eyes without a face

, Stephen A Smith,

Scorpious

,

HockeyFan

,

Dwlee99

[HAMMER]

Nero Cain

[2]:

Frozen Angel

,

Greeting

Scorpious

[2]:

wavemode

,

the worst

Andante [1]:

Umlaut

not voting [1]:

Andante

vote count 2.final

with 11 votes in play, it took 6 to make a decision. day 2 ended.

yeet

Nero Cain

[6]:

the worst

, Umlaut,

Scorpious

, Stephen A Smith,

Dwlee99

, Andante

[HAMMER]

Scorpious

[1]:

HockeyFan

Andante [1]:

Nero Cain

the worst

[1]:

Eyes without a face

Eyes without a face

[1]:

wavemode

not voting [1]:

fireisredsir

vote count 3.final

with 9 votes in play, it took 5 to make a decision. day 3 ended.

yeet

Scorpious

[5]:

wavemode

, Andante,

HockeyFan

,

Dwlee99

, Stephen A Smith

[HAMMER]

Dwlee99

[1]:

the worst

wavemode

[1]:

Scorpious

not voting [2]:

Eyes without a face

, Umlaut

vote count 4.final

with 7 votes in play, it took 4 to make a decision. day 4 ended.

yeet

Eyes without a face

[4]:

Dwlee99

,

the worst

, Andante,

Eyes without a face

[HAMMER]

HockeyFan

[1]:

Umlaut

Umlaut [1]:

HockeyFan

Dwlee99

[1]:

Stephen A Smith

not voting [0]:

vote count 5.final

with 5 votes in play, it took 3 to make a decision. day 5 ended.

yeet

HockeyFan

[3]:

Andante, Umlaut, Stephen A Smith

[HAMMER]

Andante [1]:

HockeyFan

not voting [1]:

Dwlee99

Don't mind me, just putting these here for my own reference and seeing if I can get something out of them. Note Stephen is the only unsorted person on the Greeting wagon, but that wagon already has two scum on it so nothing really needs explaining there. Also note if Andante is town then the Eyes yeet was all-town

[Umlaut]

do you think im mafia doctor?

I mean,

probably

not, this setup is really damn weird if you are.

I've lost track of whether your being mafia doctor is consistent with all the confirmed information we have, tbh. What were your Alien/Voyeur results again?

[Umlaut]

n1 i targeted fireisredsir - that's why he was blocked
n2 i targeted fireisredsir - a killing action was performed on him (very useful i know lol)
n3 i targeted duckie - duckie is very unpopular and no1 else did anything to duckie

Found 'em

[Umlaut]

That's why probably not (also I don't see why you would claim Voyeur at all if you were just making things up)

[Umlaut]

I concede it doesn't make much sense for you to be scum but let me have my paranoid moment please

[Umlaut]

Just noticed Andante has V/LA status set which is... unfortunate timing

[Umlaut]

Was she on vacation all night? I only just noticed it now.

But no, I believe she could pop in long enough to submit a kill even if she was. I just meant it's annoying that I'm waiting for her to say something and it might take days for that to happen.

[Umlaut]

V/LA doesn't mean I can't be here at all,
if I had to vote right now I'd probably vote Umlaut, but I was having a good solve with duckie right before they died, so like, I'm not dealing with this till like wednesday night or thursday. Like, sure I could just vote Umlaut and call it a day, but I owe it to all the dead townies to at least give it an effort, and feel confident about my decision, so before I vote Umlaut I want to be absolutely certain, but reading D6 here, feels like Umlaut is weighing options too much, and trying to just sit on the fence, see which way we're leaning, then go from there.. I mean, Umlaut killing Dwlee is easy, Umlaut feels more confident in being able to convince you I'm scum than convincing you of dwlee scum.

so like tldr: I'm like 95% sold on Umlaut maf, but I'm currently busy, and will deal with this later

This is nonsense, Stephen was literally already convinced of Dwlee scum, it makes no sense for me to kill Dwlee over you. The fact you don't seem to have already realized that could be a reason

you

would kill Dwlee though. (Well more likely the reason is just that they thought you were scum and not realizing that is why you didn't have second thoughts about killing them)

I'm not going to sit around waiting until Wednesday to sort this out

VOTE: Andante

Realistically this is always who I am voting today so there's no need to drag it out.

[Umlaut]

I think if you just reread the game should make itself clear but all the same I will go through and make some kind of case. I hate making cases when I already know who is scum because it's impossible to avoid confbias but it's still a.thing I should do.

Please ask me any questions you have.

[Umlaut]

Working on a post highlighting Andante'a behavior toward the wagons on known scum but it might not be done til tonight because I have to actually do my job at work today

[Umlaut]

Working on a post highlighting Andante'a behavior toward the wagons on known scum but it might not be done til tonight because I have to actually do my job at work today

uh yeah, when I started doing this I remembered how many pages and pages and pages of wallposts and crap there were go through in the early game and never really got far with it

but ask me any questions you have, Stephen. Looks like you don't really want to read a big case anyway and I really don't have one aside from what I and others have already said about Andante, but maybe I can at least make a case that I'm town.

[Umlaut]

imo the only question is if it makes sense for the setup to have an even-night gunsmith and then a backup gunsmith (which is apparently not even-night). and to that i really have no idea

this was my exact thought process with the claim, like, if backup is "more powerful" makes NO SENSE... yet Umlaut jumped straight to defending the claim, no questions about it

I still don't see why this was ever implausible. Like, it's not how the setup worked out to be but I think even-night gunsmith + backup gunsmith could make sense in some setup. Your "disbelieving" it smacks of TMI. Like you were in "busing Nero" mode and not prepared to back away from it yet even though it didn't even make sense there.

I am super IRL busy and will respond to the rest over the weekend but grabbed this post to answer now because it is short

[Umlaut]

is Nero's role mechanically possible? I need the big brains for this one.

How would it not be possible? Even-Night Gunsmith is a normal role, that's all that's required.

Instantly jumping to defend nero, but this time interaction with your partner "for distance"

I love how you are taking the fact it doesn't make sense for me to argue with Scorpius about this if we're scum buddies and then using it as a reason we are because "he just did it to look good"

[Umlaut]

Literally if you voted Nero it was busing because you are both scum, I don't even need to read your posts to know that.

[Umlaut]

pls dont respond to everything she said

just give me your #1 best reason why andante is mafia or you are town(can give me one of each if you like)

wall of text back and forths are just not very useful.

I will do this when I can sit down and read for more than three minutes at a time.

[Umlaut]

Also, as a real-world request to Andante the person, please don"t insinuate I am lying about being IRL busy, as you are with comments like the end of 3278.

Anyone who has seen my town and scum games knows my activity and engagement level vary a lot and cannot be used to predict my alignment. You probably don't know that and I know you have to make the most convincing case you can to Stephen and see whatever you can find even though you know I'm town, but it actually does bother me to be accused of lying about RL stuff. So, like, do your thing but leave that part out please?

[Umlaut]

Contrary to what Andante says, I think the most towny thing about me is my consistent advocacy for eliminating Nero on days 1 and 2, vs. her back-and-forth on that slot depending on whether it looked like it was savable or not. I think the only time I unvoted Nero on Day 2 was after the PR claim, and any look at my track record will show that I

always

back off from PR claims unless they are absolutely untenable. The fact that HockeyFan's claim seemed to corroborate his makes me more suspicious of anyone who

didn't

back off after seeing that (except of course Fire who knew better). Once there was a counterclaim I was immediately back on him.

I'll find some posts to support this but you can just look at my ISO, it's not all that long.

[Umlaut]

Trying to find that information and instead found a reminder of how Scorpius was shitpushing me all day 1 and then backed off when they saw no one was going for it.

Umlaut,

Have you had the opportunity to make any intitial observations? We’ve gotten nothing from that slot.

VOTE: umlaut

This slot is useless right now. Will gladly remove vote if content is produced. Just a smart play to get rid of this slot.
It’s either VT or a scum role nobody wants. Unless I get proven differently by someone showing they want to play it..

I'm pretty sure umlaut is town

and I'm also pretty sure you have essentially zero case on them

The case is on the slot.. 2 people now. 7 posts..

Not actually I have a town read on the worst for overkill last post not even realizing he is replaced out and worst reacting in real time to discussions felt natuaral. And stephen is an early town lean of mine for his early reation test but i have less confidence with that read.

Thoughts on a Nero Umlaut scum team?

What am I missing???

Why is everyone being so ok with this slot(Umlaut) doing nothing? I swear if it gets to the point where people want to lim it,I'm looking at everyone that questioned me for bringing it up.

This is literally the fist time I've seen a lot get so much leeway 7 days into a game with 8 posts.

greeting was literally only called out for not being around... that's how these easy pushes work... "too much pressure is going towards maf? distract with this!!!"

exactly. I got called out for pushing umlaut, and I was wrong.. now it looks scummy

If you believe that's busing I don't know what to tell you, that would be the dumbest goddamn bus in the world.

[Umlaut]

Please actually read the below, because I feel like you are likely to vote me without realizing how implausible it is that I could ever be scum with Nero. Spoilering it to save you the scrolling but read it anyway.

Spoiler: A bunch of posts I made about Nero

Townreading Frozen Angel; scumreading Andante; think wavemode made decent points about Eyes/Nero and want to take another look at them after catch-up.

Pretty much immediately put Nero on my scumdar based on FA's case

Haven't done more catchup and probably won't have time to do more today since I'm at work (and then doing Valentine's Day stuff) but I like that both Fire and Frozen seem to have actually made the effort to read what I've written so far. And I also like that Frozen is arguing points with me even though I called her town.

scum are far more likely to claim a PR to get out of an elimination than town unless said town is a pr. Not impossible that we did hit a town pr and I guess the correct play might be to give him a day or 2

Agree with others this is ugly, that first sentence compresses to "town who isn't a PR is unlikely to say they are" which is not exactly a revelation.

I'm just going to give up on trying to catch up with this game since there have been 15 more pages posted since I started reading the first 15 pages, and

VOTE: Nero Cain

because nothing I've seen from him has made me think he's town, and I really disliked his reaction to the HockeyFan claim.

I could vote Andante but Nero is still the bigger wagon and I like it more.

My first vote of the game onto Nero when I could just as easily vote Andante or any of the other more popular candidates if I were scum. Nero was kind of an underdog wagon at the time

Not going to go back through a zillion posts

again

to make a case on Nero that's already been made but: Vote onto Hockey wagon early was bad, hedgey fence-sitting "this claim is probably fake unless it's real" reaction was bad and exactly what I expect from scum hoping to let a miselim go through without getting blamed for it, hyperdefensive response to my asking Andante to explain her townread, comes out badly in back-and-forth with FA, haven't seen anything particularly "I wouldn't expect that from scum" to counter any of this

idk what I want here.. I don't want this nero wagon to go through, I don't like too many on the wagon. I want a coaster d1

me too

So did you ever want the Nero wagon? Or if not why were you on it?

Challenging Scorpius on his lack of commitment to the wagon. If you believe Nero was double-bused this aggressively D1 I have a bridge to sell you.

Not especially interested in Greeting wagon, I feel like he's answered my questions adequately and the case doesn't really impress me. This is a hard game to keep caught up with and I don't think Greeting struggling with that is indicative of anything.

We're getting kind of short on time. Nero wagon seems to have disintegrated but it's come back from that before and I have hope it will again. Failing that, someone sell me on something else because I agree with Worst there are a lot of people in the "wouldn't be too sad if they died" zone.

As scum busing I would absolutely take this opportunity to say "there's no time, need to consolidate" and vote someone else.

My first thought is that someone's desperate to frame Nero. Greeting was his counterwagon and only Frozen was voting him along with Greeting.

This means that once again I won't be voting Nero today. In fact that's the first thing I have decided to do (or not to do actually) today.

I think you are overthinking this.

VOTE: Nero Cain

Rejecting WIFOM explanations for why that kill would exonerate Nero and insisting, no, the simple explanation is correct, it's just Nero killing whoever is inconvenient to him. Which in fact was the case!

Well theres 2 possibillites here that you likely need to look at b4 coming to this conclusion

A. both scum and eyes is trying to make nero look good
B. Eyes, as mafia is defending Nero town to make nero look

bad

Now, I also think Eyes is town, but not because Eyes is defending Nero

Do you really think the advantage of "making Nero look bad" outweighs the immediate advantage of not getting launched? Or that scum!Eyes would think it does?

Again rejecting explanations that could allow Nero to be town. I will not deny that I am willing to bus as scum but I would not go out of my way to demand town yeet my buddy like this

I'm an even night gunsmith so lets not vote town and TW instead.

UNVOTE: Nero

Provisionally accepting this claim, may revisit later depending on what happens. Nero would be a good investigation target if someone has an investigation that distinguishes Town Gunsmith from Mafia [Whatever].

Hockey, can you say whether you are a backup gunsmith specifically, or a backup of something else? (No need to say what else if not gunsmith)

Yes, I unvoted and "provisionally accepted" the claim. I also asked a question of Hockey to try and better confirm the plausibility of the claim, which is all you should need to see that I was not 100% committed to believing it. I wasn't 100% committed until we had had literally two corroborating claims (Hockey's and wave's) without a counterclaim.

what if I told you that I'm a 1-shot rolecop and I know for a fact that hockeyfan is a backup 1-shot gunsmith

so my knee jerk reaction to nero's claim was, how did he know to claim gunsmith of all things? hockey had not told us what he was a backup for

unless they are mafia GS and mafia backup GS? which, wow wtf. but it's technically possible I suppose. still, it's strange to claim that together and become joined at the hip (the typical risk associated with mason fakeclaims)

I believe this 100% (or as close to 100% as I ever believe anything in this game) and think it pretty much clears both Hockey and Nero unless there is some further mechanical revelation to the contrary.

I just can't imagine a setup with town gunsmith and scum backup gunsmith, or vice versa, would pass review, because it's way too swingy (you kill an opposing power role and your own team gets even

more

powerful as a result? That's, like, the opposite of how to keep a game balanced).

I

can

imagine a setup with scum gunsmith and scum backup gunsmith, but I don't believe Hockey and Nero make this sort of absurd all-in in the case where they're both scum. If they did it should be obvious eventually.

Pedit

never mind

VOTE: Nero

Immediately reversed course as soon as there was a cc. Can't claim towncred for this alone because it's not like scum had any choice but to vote Nero at that point but it should show you how disconnected from reality Andante's "UmLaUt TrIeD tO pRoTeCt NeRo" assertions really are.

[Umlaut]

I can't claim I was instrumental in pushing the Nero wagon because I've been so much my low-energy self that I wasn't instrumental in pushing much of anything. But I was more instrumental than, say, Andante was.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Scorpius

I need to think a little more about this. Scorp was

hard

pushing the Nero wagon yesterday and didn't even back off after his claim which would have been the natural time for distancing scum to find something else to do. And claiming VT instead of something possibly compatible with Wave's result is a weird move for scum. (Though also it would be hard to come up with anything compatible with that result so maybe not

so

so weird but still a little weird.)

I don't see a reason for scum!wave to 1v1 Scorpius like this but people do dumb things all the time. Probably the best way to resolve it is just to launch Scorp. But all the same I want to think about whether I really believe it or not

Also I never ever make this unvote as scum here. If I'm trying to keep Scorpius alive I try to keep him alive. If I'm trying to bus him I vote him and keep voting him. I don't vote him at the start of the day and then at the last second get cold feet.

This unvote is the only reason I wasn't consistently voting scum throughout all of days 1-3.

[Umlaut]

I really should have just believed Stephen would vote Dwlee today when he said that but I overthought it. Gg.

[Umlaut]

Also yeah, I freely confess this was not a good game for me, I think my demotivated town game is distinct from my demotivated scum game in a way my motivated games as each are not. Sorry team.

[Umlaut]

Well, except I don't recall ever agreeing on that. But yes we were both scum, sure.