Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Oxy]

@meji
@brass
@flicker

get in here and talk.

about teacher.

[teacher]

Im sitting out til Brass, Meji, and Flicker get in here. I think we both have said enough that the cases are out there for them to interpret and decide their position on my slot. Though, just for yuks, I will mock this one given the plain fact of a NK.

4) Maybe you got stuck on a desert island for the night phase and couldn't put in the kill

I need to reanalyze the game. At this point, since I know my own slot and agree with Elephant that Oxy-Brass is not possible, the teams are largely (Oxy-Elephant) or (Brass-Flicker). I have suspected alot of Oxy's play today, including the No-Lynch strategy, since it seemed like it could be used to build a mislynch around me after a night kill tomorrow, and his push on me seems so contrary to his D1 and D2 reads. But I dont have strong views on elephant. I really am open to either team, and need to read the entire game again. I hope the other slots -- FLICKER especially -- will post some analysis I can use. I am open to being convinced the same way Elephant's DDS point won me over.

[teacher]

@meji
@brass
@flicker

get in here and talk.

about teacher.

Cheerleading a mislynch again, are we?

[Oxy]

Oh, you!

[brassherald]

Now knowing that teacher is not definitely a PR, I've got to say, as he's admitted, he's scummy. His reaction of scum reading literally anyone that even hints at a scum read of him while denying he is doing so is concerning. Kind of like he expected to come in and scare people off from lynching him by intimidating with a scum read.

Then, there's a tracker claim, which is not necessarily true. He has no results at all from two nights, supposedly targetting the Jailed target, then being jailed himself. But, without anything short of NK15 saying in no unclear terms that he was going to jail teacher last night, we have no real confirmation he was even jailed. If teacher is scum, no one other than scum has Night actions, and you are not informed when you are jailed as a VT, which I have first hand knowledge of from my previous newbie game in this setup. I've seen an early tracker fake claim in this setup as well when it was a relatively new setup by Wilky, which lead to him winning, so it's not unheard of for a tracker fake claim by scum. I don't think that the PR claim would perform the Night Kill, because if I were scum, I wouldn't send the tracker claim with two alive, for an overly complicated reason.

Now, he's pretty much willing to say anyone is scum outside of himself and Meji. Keeping a wide open lynch pool. That's not great this late in the game, in MYLO. With weak cases on every read I have seen, he's willing to vote 4 of the 6 players remaining when we NEED a red flip today.

He also calls my slot scummy basically for Nauci not being present while she was ill, and now has completely discounted Meji even though he has the fewest posts in the game. For someone who loves to claim inconsistencies, that is a glaring inconsistency.

In sum, I think Oxy could be onto something here. (Prepare for an incoming "renewed scum read" on me from teacher)

[brassherald]

Oh, I'll be back tomorrow. I took a few minutes during lunch to type this up, but have to finish a motion. Then, tonight, I'm going on a date night with the fiancee.

Don't expect to hear from me between now and Saturday morning.

[teacher]

repare for an incoming "renewed scum read" on me from teacher

Actually no. Since (Flicker Meji Brass) is low activity, Im dedicating my end of day to posting my Oxy-Elephant case. Im hoping one of them (as high activity posters) will make a (Brass-Flicker) case. That way I can go and analyze who I think the likely teams are.

I dont see a Oxy-Brass as possible, thanks to Elephant. I dont see Meji-(Oxy, Elephant, Flicker) as possible due to votes. And I dont see Meji-Brass as possible due to Meji's Nauci tunnel and your entry. So Meji is town. I know Im town. So Im left with two clear possible teams.

After I leave the office this afternoon, Im in a similar boat. I have kids solo tonight and tomorrow, so wont be back posting after 5pm eastern today until appr 8pm tomorrow.

[Oxy]

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.01

Teacher (1) Oxy
Not Voting (5) Irrelephant11, Flicker, teacher, brassherald, Meji Fan

Day three deadline is Thursday May 17, 11 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-17 11:00:00)

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

[/size]

[teacher]

The Oxy-Elephant Case.

The below is chronological, not written in order of strongest points. It is also written with full confirmation bias acknowledged. I am reading everything to see if it makes sense from a scum team, and it does. They could well be A team. I am explicitly not saying this is THE team.

In fact, after re-reading the ISOs, I remain feeling that Elephant is town through D2. I find also Oxy’s attempt to shift wagons D1 pretty darn towny. The only thing that is making me suspect these two is their push together on me D3, when I know that is a mislynch. But it is an understandable mislynch (their case, though wrong, is legit).

Bottom line, I am posting this because I went through the effort of writing it. My outcome is that I would like to ask Oxy/Elephant to both (a) ask any questions of me you want, and (b) assume Im town and case two others as a team. I would like to ask the non-oxy/elephant board (C) to see if there is something I missed.

I remain tragically uncertain myself without more info. But to Town!Oxy that should be a reason not to lynch, if he has a true mylo hesitancy.

Spoiler: Day and Night 1

DDS RVS his partner. 10. A decent distancing move.

Elephant’s early game ignores DDS entirely, other than to ask for participation and impliedly town him. 108+111+140

• As a total aside, because I know Mathemagical Me has no credibility here, I found Elephant’s 108 most interesting. He announces a pool of 3 suspects (JB, Thor, me),
  and notes the statistical odds that one is mafia
  . I know that pool to be all town, and the odds of a towny announcing an all-town three person pool is 36% (There are 56 3-person combinations of slots 1-8. 6 combinations have both scum. 20 have no scum. 30 have one scum). I indented this because it makes sense to me but will persuade nobody else (especially since Im not locktown).

• Likewise, DDS’s only real post in the game essentially ignores Elephant. 126 Such avoidance of each other from both slots is consistent with how I would expect Scum to play D1. Moreover, as others have noted (e.g., Nauci’s 145, James’s 131), 126 is mostly empty AtE.
  
• Which brings me to the first time Elephant actually interacts with DDS, towning him for the empty/AtE post, and casting some shade at Thor 141.
  This is the scummiest game-play thing I find from Elephant D1 or D2, and it too is pretty damn weak.
  
  
• DDS exits with shade at JB and Thor – now known towns.
  
• Oxy arrives and immediately joins the chorus on towning elephant, for the slightly absurd James v. Thor being SvS theory. 158 He also immediately protects me, who has announced a sheep of Elephant. 159. Makes sense if you’re new scum teamed with elephant.
  
• The towniest thing I see about Oxy is the repeated pushes against a James wagon. 161+258+ 286. I don’t, and cant, come up with a strong scum motivation for this, other than to gain town cred. But that is pretty weak, and a pretty towny point for Oxy.
  
  
• Elephant engages, and pushes back against, Oxy’s Flicker case. They interact pretty heavily here in the late 100s early 200s, discussing the Flicker case. Could be a manufactured way to distance themselves over a spot that has no votes and is relatively unlikely to catch a lynch. Could be a legitimate disagreement. I don’t know.
  
• Oxy shifts slightly from trying to prevent a James lynch in 158 to questioning James in 216 + 218 + 233. Maybe this comes from town trying to get a townread say where to go next. But given the board state (my stated willingness to compromise on James), this reads more to me as an effort to keep attention on a slot without having to join the wagon with a partner.
  
• I don’t have much to say about day end. Oxy previews his switch to James in 302 for reasons that struck me as legitimate at the time. So does Elephant’s refusal to move 292. But I will say that I agree with Thor that there are more likely to be two scum on the wagon than two scum off, which is the choice Im presented with now.
  
• Elephant as scum makes the Thor N1 kill attempt a lock. Thor was one of only two slots not already towning elephant. And an Elephant led voting block poses no threat to scum!elephant. Indeed, if you assume scum!elephant, the only NK attempt that makes sense is Thor because you’ve already had Oxy strongly shade Meji, the other null slot.

Spoiler: D & N2

• The day starts with my derp claim theories. BUT Oxy quickly urges the board to confirm the PR claim, and pressures people who want to think it through. 394+403+404. Seemed scummy to me at the time, and does now.
  
• Elephant takes the opportunity to reinforce his Oxy townread. 412+ 416, while towning himself in my eyes by not obeying that read.
  
• Oxy says elephant is back on the table, something he contradicts in day 3. 412+ 774.
  
• Oxy shades the theory that there are two scum on the wagon. 447
  
• Elephant and Oxy start actively coordinating, though do not mention that they have the same reads – they both offer the same Meji/Nauci/Flicker pool. 448+ 459.
  
• Oxy explicitly towns me 462, and defends me from Thor.467 Since Oxy has actively towned me, and followed me outside his pool to Thor, his strong push on me today seems contradictory (especially when he justifies it as being based on a gamesolve from Meji, where he would have been yesterday but for me and who I assume is my partner???.
  
• Similar to my end of D1 analysis, I don’t have post-specific reactions from Friday (523) onward. I just have atmospherics: Oxy undercuts BOTH my math case on Thor (e.g., 520) AND my associational case on Thor (610), but follows it anyways. I find it surprising for him to move outside of his lynchpool for a case where he thinks both parts are weaker than the ISO case on Meji, unless he wants IC dead. Post 613 is perhaps the most troubling to me. He has now shifted to reading Thor as the scummiest, but never explains why (other than the altered math case, which is a weak 20%).
  
• Elephant’s limited play in this weekend time-period -- staying off Thor and questioning why Thor trusts me – seems towny (avoids mislynch), but also well-designed to protect his potential partner from Thor’s shade. Indeed, 622 strikes me as weird throwing of shade at all slots except Oxy and me – again very inconsistent with the hard push on me today. (see 2 bullets up.
  
• The fact of a night kill (when everyone expected NK and ME to be in the scumpool) suggests elephant felt free to roam the plains.[/lis]

Like I said at the start, theres really not much in there. Maybe a couple questionable actions, and some coordination, but nothing obvious until .....

Day 3

Today’s shared push on me. Could be scum trying for a mislynch win, but like I said the case is legit. Also raising suspicions for me is Oxy's argument for a no lynch. That is contrary to the Wiki suggestion in a mass-claim situation, which we have here.

You should search around these forums, or maybe the wiki. Somewhere there is some good analysis for why lynching at mylo is simply worse.

From the Wiki on MyLo regarding Lynching:

On the upside, by refusing to lynch the Town may be able to give its investigative roles another chance to work their magic. On the downside,

if the Town has already massclaimed

or if there are no roles that can make use of the Night remaining, opting not to lynch will simply give the scum a free kill on the Townie who is most likely to help the Town lynch correctly at LyLo.

I see the no-lynch suggestion here as scummy, because we have already massclaimed. Sure, I could use tonight to track. But even if I get a hit, its less than 50/50 (given that 3 slots have actively suss'ed me now) that a red check results in a scum lynch rather than my own.

Bottom line -- help please?!

[teacher]

@Oxy/Elephant: By the way, if you wont assume town me and build a scum team from the pool, then at least pair me. I'm biased but I dont see it.

Teacher + Oxy--> Day 3 push --> No.
Teacher + Elephant-->Day 1 sheeping from me and Day 3 push from elephant -->NO.
Teacher + Brass--> I push Brass and Brass pushes me in MYLO --> No.
Teacher + Flicker--> Possible from my end, I defended the slot, and scum!me would "track" her. But difficult to explain Flicker's D1 push on me, and D3 pressure to out actions. --> unlikely, but possible.
Teacher + Meji-->Again, possible from my end and would explain some of my D2. But Meji D3 solves the game by outing me? --> unlikely, but possible.

At best you have an unlikely but possible team. I think, even from your perspective, the Brass-Flicker team would be more plausible. But Im heading offline for the next 27, and very interested to see people's thoughts when I return.

[Irrelephant11]

lol. About to head out for the weekend. Currently thinking it's teacher/Flicker. I have a case (I've gathered posts), but can't type it out till Monday since I have to head out. A few highlights before I go:

264 where teacher picks me, Oxy, and Flicker for a "townblock" "as long as it isn't on [teacher]"

Flicker's early vote on teacher in 81 which she has never since really pursued, at least that I can find, and her current "maybe I'm a sucker but teacher seems trustworthy" read

teacher's reads on Flicker go from townread to null to nullish scum to town and town again D1 (66, 107, 134, 213, 264)

327 Flicker says "If you flip town I'm gonna be disappointed" and " I don't need to "suck up" or get town cred from anyone, I'm hoping people correctly read me as town based on my pro-town contributions." which both do actually come across as looking for town-cred.

From teacher's most recent attempt to find a mislynch:

"I am reading everything

to see if it makes sense from a scum team, and it does. They could well be A team.

I am explicitly not saying this is THE team."

"Like I said at the start,

theres really not much in there

. Maybe a couple questionable actions, and some coordination, but nothing obvious until .....
Day 3
Today’s shared push on me. Could be scum trying for a mislynch win,

but like I said the case is legit.

"

(emphasis mine) Yikes.



If I'm right, I'm annoyed at Meji Fan for lack of posts all game.

See y'all for a single post this weekend, and then for some real in depth stuff Monday (it's good to look into all realistic pairs before lynch - also nobody bring anyone to L-2 until all four of us have agreed)

[teacher]

OK, I do concede Flicker and I COULD be a team, but the problem I see with that is Flicker's D1 -- voting me and trying to get others to join her in the 100s, and then getting angry with me for delaying and ultimately getting off a wagon just as I was getting on in the 250s-300s. Heading out the door as well.

[Oxy]

Teacher + Brass--> I push Brass and Brass pushes me in MYLO --> No.
Teacher + Flicker--> Possible from my end, I defended the slot, and scum!me would "track" her. But difficult to explain Flicker's D1 push on me, and D3 pressure to out actions. --> unlikely, but possible.

I already paired you. These are your two pairings

[teacher]

Not very likely. Both slots VOTED AND PUSHED me D1 at a time when I was a common board suspect and could well have gained traction. (Nauci 44 through 116; Flicker 81 through 193). I dont see either of those two plays as coming from a partner. Nor do I see either of their play today as being partnered with me. Flicker 765 pressure on me to out when I have stated it is not my wish. Brass same pressure to out (755) coupled with our general attitude towards each other as exemplified by 779 and 829.

Oxy, I dont like that you tried to keep me in two separate pairings, so as to keep either Flicker or Brass or or both open to voting me. That said, I genuinely cant tell whether you and elephant are scum pushing for the mislynch or whether you are town getting confirmation biased like you did yesterday with Thor. Since neither you nor elephant would rise to the task, I am going to research the other team my gut says is actually possible in the current playstate, Brass-Flicker. I will post my findings similar to how I did the case with elephant and you.

[Oxy]

teacher, you and I have dramatically different perceptions of what plays a scum is willing to make.

It's not that I'm not seeing what you are saying, it's just that I disagree.

As to the two pairings, and as I said before, I could see you with either of them, and my guess is that you are partnered with flicker.

[teacher]

The Flicker—Nauci/Brass Case

Again, this write up is chronological, based on a paired (actually trio) ISO, not written in order of strongest points. Again, it is also written with confirmation bias – I am reading their posts trying to look for evidence of a team. And again, I see this as A plausible team.

Again, Im not saying this is THE team. Im just saying that the evidence doesn’t disprove its possibility. I think the evidence – particularly the D3 points not spoiled – make it less likely than Oxy-Elephant.

Spoiler: D1+N1

Im trying to code the lists correctly this time…..

• Nauci opens by pointing out scum daychat. 7. Like Thor (35), I had been inclined to view this as a very very slight towntell but don’t assign much weight at all.
  
• That opening is followed by a hell of a lot of fluff, as Meji pointed out at the start of his tunnel. Im not going to link each piece of fluffery, but for it it takes away any town points from the first bullet.
  
• Nauci votes me for the ‘random’ L-2. 44. This is her first substantive post.
  
• The very next post is Flicker’s first of the game, where she debates sheeping Nauci (finding me suspect), but instead votes James. 45. Could be taken as indication of coordination, especially with Nauci towning Flicker in response 47. But it could also be mutually shared suspicion (which would be legitimate). Overall I take this as a potential, but weak sign of team especially given the hours between each post though close in number.
  
• Flicker’s 57 responds to James and justifies her vote, while further sussing me. Nauci’s 67 towns Flicker and nulls James. Could be seen as trying to create a positive rep for a partner, while supporting either of their scum reads. That interpretation is assisted by 81, where Flicker switches to me before Nauci towns James. Then again, I find it unlikely that scum are the first two votes on a wagon. Another potential, but weak sign of a team.
  
• Flicker’s 81 also null-towns Nauci. Could be trying to create positive vibes without directly associating. Could be legit (this is about where I was at this point). Same – potential, weak sign of team..
  
• Nauci’s 96 is the first direct association from her to Flicker, defending Flicker from James. Flicker responds by now full-towning Nauci. 120. One bizarre aside regarding 120—at this point Flicker towns Oxy’s slot and Elephant too. That’s not relevant to the team analysis, but interesting given the gamestate. Regardless, at this point, theres certainly positive vibes floating between Flicker and the Nauci slot at this point. This is the strongest team indicative point of D1.
  
• Flicker’s 132 towning of DDS for his 126 is directly contrary to Nauci’s reaction in 145 of AtE. A distinct lack of coordination here, plus Flicker’s post includes what seems like a genuine question (about pocketing) that she could have asked in scumchat if Nauci were her partner. Cuts against team.
  
• Flicker moves away from her read on me in 193, at a time when Nauci still seems to be going full-bore 197. This is weak, because Flicker leaves her vote parked, but still somewhat counter-associational.
  
• Nauci’s last post of D1 moves from fulltowning Flicker to nulltowning her. 236. Nauci is also continuing to push me, adding Meji, while continuing to fence-sit on James, which Flicker has now been pushing more (219). Again, suggests lack of coordination at least on wagon pushing.
  
• Flicker’s end of day is well-known – a hesitancy on James but she gets on the wagon, only to deboard after Jame’s defense. But I again doubt the question in 278 comes from someone with scumchat. I also think 333reads true, and especially townie since she didn’t vote the other wagon (which she had previously said she was ok with) that is on a slot now heavily towned. Scum would have either stayed on the wagon or gone to another wagon rather than simply delayed in the late afternoon hours.
  
• Last comment about the Known night kill target of Thor – Unlike the (Oxy Elephant) team, a block led by Elephant poses a risk to this team, especially when Flicker has suggested she might follow. 269. I see elephant and Thor as 50/50 lynch targets for them, and possibly more elephant since Thor has suggested his focus would be on Meji.

Spoiler: D2+N2

Coding for a list, please!

• As I’ve said before, Nauci’s posts out of the gate urging against a protective role claim seem pretty darn towny. 380 + 382. I also view Flicker’s 385 as showing lack of coordination AND lack of interest in PR hunting.
  
• Once the claims fiasco is done, its basically back to being only Flicker. Her 469 throws some shade at Nauci, but as a tertiary target to Meji or Me. This could be acceptable distancing/soft-bussing to build town cred, but is also legit given board play. Slight team indication.
  
• In 471, 480, and 489, Flicker is defending Nauci from my case. (side note – do I really case a partner this early???). Indeed, 489 even misinterprets a response to Thor as an attack on Nauci. Seems pretty gung-ho for defending a tertiary target. Strongest team indication from Day 2.
  
• The scummiest thing from Nauci all game is the unexplained vote on Thor. 576. This came pretty soon after Flicker had said she would compromise there. 574. Could it be active coordination at last?
  
• Flicker’s sequence of 715 “replace before hammering” and 723hammering before replacement is also fairly scummy.
  
• Final night kill analysis: Flicker and Nauci both had reason to fear being Jailkept or tracked. NK15 as a kill is the only one that makes sense. My only question is whether they pass and try to rely on Thor’s FoS on Oxy to bluff their way through day 3. I view that as unlikely, but possible. Thus, I find the night kill not truly indicative of the strength of this team.

At bottom, after two days, I see light indications of a team, but not as strong as with Oxy and Elephant (I think a scum team would try to ignore each other entirely, rather than give shifting townish reads). I see some coordination, but not much, and sometimes pushing against each other’s reads (Flicker’s push off of me being the prime example). That brings us to

Day Three

• Flicker’s opening 765 (following elephant) is consistent with her town reads. But inconsistent with how scum should be playing at mylo – to spread suspicion around for a mislynch win.
  
• Brass’s first substantive post 770 is a response to my Nauci case. I think he is wrong at some points, but responding to this (and Elephant) makes sense.
  
• We finally get into the action with Flicker’s 772, fingering Meji, Brass, and Oxy. This is pretty counter-team, since it points to her teammate and leaves me (a large suspect) out of the running. I can see bussing, but I cant see bussing while leaving out common suspects.
  
• Same reasoning applies to Brass’s 789, where he fingers Elephant, Flicker, and Meji. I can see bussing, but I cant see bussing leaving out common suspect (me). This is less strong because the reasoning for leaving me out is weak, as later pointed out by Oxy.

[teacher]

teacher, you and I have dramatically different perceptions of what plays a scum is willing to make.

It's not that I'm not seeing what you are saying, it's just that I disagree.

As to the two pairings, and as I said before, I could see you with either of them, and my guess is that you are partnered with flicker.

And Im not saying I disagree with you either -- it is possible. But I dont think its remotely likely enough to justify the strength of your push on me right now.

I ask again for you to seriously case a team with me on it. I think Brass really has to be out, since I was the first one pushing that slot with 468, not to mention the issues above.

I do concede Flicker is possible, and the most likely team for me. But take into account Flicker's really hard push on me early day one (45, 57, 81, 120, 132) combined with the obvious lack of any coordination between us at the end of D1 on the wagon votes (she gets angry at me for delaying while getting on, I get on and then she gets off), and I think D1 tanks your theory even before taking into account the D3 push to out contrary to my stated wishes.

Again, I agree its possible. I just find it even less likely than Flicker-Brass OR Oxy-Elephant.

What I think happened is that you and Elephant pushed me because you had open suspicions from one town (Meji), implied suspicions from another (Flicker), and a spot I antagonized on the opening of D3 (Brass), and thought you could push a mislynch through based on the "NK couldnt have jailkept you" case. You didnt think through the team weakness in the case on me - an openly suspected slot. (Plus, the case itself is a bit weak, given how NK's jailkeep could be perfectly consistent with his words - 822

As for where I am, as you can tell, I have shifted more to believing its you and elephant based on the openly coordinated play today, and the lack of any counters to coordination before (though strong associations were not necessary -- the slots ignoring each other is suspect for me). But I dont want to be confirmation biased. I am putting all my cards on the table and letting people question them.

Do the same. Teamcase me and flicker. Or explain to me why you and elephant cant be one. Give me something other than a case on me (since I know Im town, and tracker).

[Oxy]

teacher, I haven't figured out your partner. I don't think the reasons you are giving absolve you of all suspicion of being their partner.

This is my read progression on teacher:

D1: "Oh, wow, this guy is doing a lot of scummy things - primarily being lamist and pushing off the responsibility of his vote onto others."
I called you a town read because I truly believe being lamist is NAI for new players, and I am a fan of sheeping in proper circumstances. I didn't agree with how you were doing it, but I thought that town!teacher might be trying something without going into the theory too much. (As an aside, I have a number of theory/practice things I want to discuss with you post game. I think we could both benefit from it, and I'm a fan of your style.)

Day 2, your claim was ultra weird. I STILL don't really know how I feel about it. And your result was reasonable, but also really convenient. Scum!teacher definitely isn't spewing a green check in that position. Same deal with the sheeping.

Day 3, your target was ideal from a town perspective. But you got no result.

I KNOW that NK is town, and I KNOW what his last posts said. The rest of your game can be explained from a town POV, but I can't get past this point. I just can't.

Now, If others decide they want to sleep, I can still see a benefit to that for each NK:

1) teacher is killed: Wow! teacher was town! I'm glad we didn't lynch him in Mylo.
2) Elephant is killed: Oxy + Elephant theory is disproven.
3) Oxy is killed: Oxy + Elephant theory is disproven.
4) Flicker is killed: Removes her from the lynch pool
5) Meji is killed: Removes him from the lynch pool.
6) Brass is killed: Removes him from the lynch pool.

Obviously, 4,5, and 6 also remove them from possible pairings. Only number 1 really helps me, and it's very unlikely, but this might help some of our town that is less convinced.
And again, in the (now remote) chance that teacher is real, he could get a red check and give us a (at minimum) 50/50 shot at mafia.

[teacher]

I agree with your day by day reads of me to a T. I do look forward to our post-game convo, because I agree on all your points in that paragraph.

I dont get why you cant read NK's words along the lines of 822. I think you tried to explain this in 823, but I genuinely dont understand that post. Could you elaborate on 1 (WIFOM)?.
2. This is (I think) contrary to your sense of me. Believe me, given how much I crumbed all game, I searched his words for crumbs. The best I could come up with was that he would be JK Nauci based on putting Nauci first in his post, and saying follow teacher's leads after my reads post had (flicker, nauci) in that order).
3. While I do think there are two levels now, with confirmation bias, I dont see how I could have come up with that pre-night action.
4. We've agreed this is just wrong.
5. Do people actually do this? Again, I dont see how we run the risk where for all appearances NK has said he was staying off of me (this is my weakest argument).
6. What else???? If you cant come up with it, then maybe question the proposition?

Finally, regarding sleeping, Im open to it too. Its definitely better than lynching me which ends the game. Hypothesizing night actions, I dont see a world in which I am killed anymore since Im a good mislynch candidate. I am not sure whether there is a NK at all, since scum knows Im a tracker. If I am killed (contrary to my intuition) thats better for town as it gets rid of one mislynch. If someone else is killed, I could get a red check (50/50, better for town than now), More likely I dont, and likely the kill doesnt add much info -- I dont see the actual scum team lynching a member of the rival team. That is a slightly worse situation for town, as it becomes harder for me to convince board of innocence. I havent played this one out, and wont until other slots respond. But I am open to it.

[Oxy]

I didn't answer it well before, but here's the real answer for why it doesn't matter if you did the night kill or not.

If NK jailed you, and you were doing the kill, there would be no kill, and we could ask NK who he jailed.

But we don't know that NK jailed you.

It is very possible - likely, even - that you DID do the night kill.

And poor NK jailed someone completely different.

[Oxy]

As I understand your reading of NK:

He makes posts to make it seem like it is very unlikely that he will jail you.

He does this in the hopes that scum!teacher will make the night kill.

He then jails you to catch you in the act and get what would essentially be a guilty, and comes into D3 to tell us about it.

---

This is unlikely because of this EXACT situation.

He knew you were the tracker claim. If you're real, he knows that he will die, and that you will get no result.

If that was his plan, then he puts you in this terrible position where you look scummy as hell because of his final posts.

Is it possible? Sure. It's also possible that I'm a PR and I just haven't claimed yet.

But I'm not. That would be TERRIBLY game throwing, right?

So, yeah, NK could have inadvertently put us in a terrible position. That is possible.

But I have to have faith that he didn't.

[Oxy]

I agree with your day by day reads of me to a T. I do look forward to our post-game convo, because I agree on all your points in that paragraph.

Awesome - I'll send you a pm after the game.

[teacher]

OK. I agree with that (PEDIT-845). But then how in the hell does Scum!me (who had to have a plan for how he would play his actions) claim JK?

Scum!me is smart, right? Smart enough to plan the failed gamesolve to out the protective PR? Smart enough to fakeclaim tracker because I know we are in C2?****** If that is the case, how in the hell do I not plan my false report out smart enough to realize that the JK claim is the worst for me? Not to realize a nullcheck on partner (notably, a true result even if not obtained) would be better, and would build towncred for tracking the spot I crumbed a?

As for the asterisks, how in the hell would supersmart scum!me who knows we are in column C when I am doing the gamesolve appear to forget that JK can save (NK's first issue with 369), that there can be a doctor and tracker (which Flicker and others pointed out at the time) and that JK can be by themselves (an issue NOBODY PREVIOUSLY RAISED with 386 due to NK's fast claim). I didnt see the last issue until nowBECAUSE I KNEW I WAS TRACKER - that there had to be another PR. Further, Scum!me does not know whether Thor (who had not said one way or the other at this time) was doctor in C3. To be sure, I was throwing shade his way. But that could be fatal if he responded with a Doctor claim. My claim was not the right play to make as smart!scum at that time, until C2 was confirmed. (as for why I made it, which you have asked, Thor 564 got this one right - I was being sleepdeprived derp town).

Basically, I think you are giving me a lot of credit for being smart (thanks), but then not applying it to my claimed result of today or the timing of my claim D2.

[teacher]

If that was his plan, then he puts you in this terrible position where you look scummy as hell because of his final posts.

But once the result is known, his final posts can be understood just the way I suggest. Moreover, if the fundamental point of a PR is to save conf!town, perhaps he thought of his action as a way to definitively save me, and conf me as town. I dunno. I know Im not going to persuade you, but it hurts me because I think its so logical.