Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Irrelephant11]

while I'm doing this ISO on blackvoid (which is so freaking long... the catchup thing is not towny imo it just filled the thread with questions that had mostly been asked & answered already) I'm gonna go ahead and say that BV/skitter is actually a pretty likely scumteam imo if neither NM nor tw are scum.

pedit: is that about me

[Keyser Söze]

No bro. TW. I want the grand reveal. Then we’re down to one scum either way.

[Keyser Söze]

If we sort TW and NM today, it makes this game alot easier (that’s why I’m imploring NM to do something alignment indicative)

[Keyser Söze]

Reading BV’s D2 catchup posts, tbh he wrote some very good posts on scum-Mom and scum-TW (both scum in isolation) But ended up concluding both couldn’t be scum (due to VCA?).

[Nauci]

Wait what

I'm "less engaged"?

Because I'm pretty sure I skimmed 6-8 TW games as scum or TPR yesterday and tl;dr'ed for y'all

[Irrelephant11]

Another note as I'm doing this (how is this taking soooo long, please bv if you're town never make these giant walls again):

BV says an awful lot about Mom for someone who is jumping in brand new.

Actually, looking back at his first post, he says he had been "spectating but skimming pretty hard". So maybe he focused on Mom because he knew Mom was the biggest wagon. Still, though... Mom had very little content overall and it feels like a solid 1/5 of what BV had to say while catching up *happened to be* about Mom. Imo this suggests intentional distancing after checking in with the scum thread, not genuine writing-as-you-go.

@Blackvoid, would you say you were intentionally focusing on specific players when you did your readthrough, or just commenting on individual things as you felt the need?

pedit: who said you were less engaged? Definitely untrue

[Keyser Söze]

I'm ant as scum would need to lynch Nauci specifically. If he can get Nauci to back off with an emotional-type appeal, that's just as good for him.

[.

[Bernie and Nauci pushes as well.

intersting to note that mom votes nauci and duckling moves his vote off of mom onto nauci. i'm *pretty* sure from voting patterns that mom and duckling aren't scum together even though mom's defending him; the timing of their votes don't really feel like partners to me.

I noticed that too but my impression was that they wanted to swing momentum onto another viable-looking wagon as an alternative to TheWorst. I didn't like how Momrangal defended both Irrelephant and TheWorst and pushed their attackers and tried to get a wagon going elsewhere.

she feels less attached and engaged here and I cannot shake the feeling that her posting is pushing an agenda and specific preconceived stances rather than actively forming opinions fluidly as she goes.

If by "agenda," you mean Nauci's push on Irrelephant, how do you differentiate between scum pushing a agenda and town pushing their scumreads when they develop a read they feel confident in? I'm not sure what agenda is being served by going all-out on D1 talking about how good Irrelephant is as scum and hard-pushing a case and trying to convince a lot of people that their townread is wrong as opposed to going for an easier lynch, bringing up Irrelephant-paranoia later on. People are generally more willing to lynch good scumplayers out of paranoia if they are alive too long than on D1.

I've caught up to page 47. I'll take a break and continue later. I don't think I'll read the whole game today but I'll try to finish up before I leave for work tomorrow.

[Nauci]

It was a snippet of the bv-errant interactions

I'm not opposed to this BV investigation

But it's like nearly impossible to hold all of BV's posts in my head at once and determine my impression of him

[Keyser Söze]

Oops only meant to quote the middle part. Phone posting.


BV really exposing her teammates voting strategy??! (mom-TW)

[Irrelephant11]

Keyser - huhwha?

If you mean it's unlikely that BV is teammates with both Mom and tw, I agree. I really only think he's scum if the worst is town, which is not something I am sold on rn

[Keyser Söze]

Yes this would be described as aggressive distancing.

[Nauci]

Hey @BV can you explain in detail your scum read of Errant?

[BlackVoid]

@errantp, I'm pretty sure you're misunderstanding my tone. I wasn't talking to you as a concession. I was glad that you said you wanted to "connect" because I saw it as an opportunity to have an insightful discussion. I put it in quotes because it was your word and not one I've seen used before, not because I thought it was dubious or that I was doing it reluctantly.

I'm trying to see a worldview where Nauci is commenting on salient points and "nuanced" posts but the majority of Nauci-posting that has made any impression on me is:

1. Her paranoia of Irrelephant. She spends the entire D1 warning us about how he played well in their game together and that his posts here indicate scum but often mysteriously pushes him to a null/town read for reasons that I can't follow.
2. Her Keyser townread. Never explained outside of vague terms and it's still a mystery to me how she's so sure that he's town.
3. She's also consistently playing up the fact that she and skitter see things the same way. But they often have different views on key reads. For example skitter has Irrelephant and Keyser as scummy whereas Nauci townreads them. My point here is more that they have different thought processes that reach different conclusions and Nauci playing up how closely they are linked together doesn't seem genuine to me.

When I said you and Nauci were looking for a reason to townread Irrelephant, I didn't mean it in an alignment-indicative way. I should probably have clarified that. Town can want to read someone as town and just interpret their posts in a town way.

[BlackVoid]

Reading BV’s D2 catchup posts, tbh he wrote some very good posts on scum-Mom and scum-TW (both scum in isolation) But ended up concluding both couldn’t be scum (due to VCA?).

Not VCA. It felt to me like the general concensus was that one of them would be lynched. I find it pretty unlikely for concensus to just converge on two scum. A much more likely scenario is at least one of them is town. On the other hand, I found TheWorst scummy in a vacuum so I'm trying to decide which scenario makes more sense.

[skitter30]

@skittles

Do you think scum-TW has given up today? (he’s decided for D3 to be about him, with the potential of it being 9 town vs 1 Mafia going into N3)

Is he

that

confident that his scum partner is that well town read / hidden?

Is there ANYTHING from his D1/D2 play that backs up this trying-to-look-scummy-but-really-a-town-pr narrative?

honestly no idea; i really don't understand what he's up to

the only thing that backs up this 'trying to look scummy but really a town pr narrative' is that he tried softing to me, but when i didn't really pick up on it i don't get why he deliberately played against the meta i'm familiar with if he was trying to get me to read him that way

--

I feel like Bernie is probably town. NM and TW are leaning town. that's about it

why is tw leaning town?

--

just off memory skitter and keyser but somebody said skitter was not mom's partner and I am not sure why that was said. I can't do this off memory anymore, I need to refresh my mind by reading

cuz if i'm scum i basically spent most of day1 trying to bus her

--

i initially read 794 as mom white-knighting town!tw

also there's some very early voting patterns that seem to indicate not-partners from them

i really hate the tw's progression on her and mom's hard defense of him tho, and that she went after bernie for pushing tw

i'm kinda wondering if she tried to tie him to her on purpose tbh

--

That's not what it is, and if worst is fakeclaiming a guilty on me then you can lynch me and then immediately lynch worst tomorrow (or, preferably, just lynch worst)

oh i was getting the vibe that he was fake-claiming an inno on you, not a guilty, for just that reason tbh

--

while I'm doing this ISO on blackvoid (which is so freaking long... the catchup thing is not towny imo it just filled the thread with questions that had mostly been asked & answered already) I'm gonna go ahead and say that BV/skitter is actually a pretty likely scumteam imo if neither NM nor tw are scum.

pedit: is that about me

if you think i'm scum tell me why you think i'm scum instead of throwing around scumteams that make no sense.

like you keep trying to scumread me and when i press you on it you back down and can't explain the scumread and then a few days later you do the same thing.

like if i'm scummy to you explain why.

catchup from bv is NAI imo; that's just how he catches up as town and as scum he'd try to mimic that. i don't think he was bloating the thread with his questions; honestly that was like a catchup-lite from him and i don't think the intent was to bog down the thread

--

3. She's also consistently playing up the fact that she and skitter see things the same way. But they often have different views on key reads. For example skitter has Irrelephant and Keyser as scummy whereas Nauci townreads them. My point here is more that they have different thought processes that reach different conclusions and Nauci playing up how closely they are linked together doesn't seem genuine to me.

@nauci:

ftr i'm kinda picking up on this too; i feel like you're kinda over-emphasizing how strongly you townread me and you're like defending me to gustavo and it's making me wonder if you're like trying to pocket/buddy me

[BlackVoid]

Another note as I'm doing this (how is this taking soooo long, please bv if you're town never make these giant walls again):

BV says an awful lot about Mom for someone who is jumping in brand new.

Actually, looking back at his first post, he says he had been "spectating but skimming pretty hard". So maybe he focused on Mom because he knew Mom was the biggest wagon. Still, though... Mom had very little content overall and it feels like a solid 1/5 of what BV had to say while catching up *happened to be* about Mom. Imo this suggests intentional distancing after checking in with the scum thread, not genuine writing-as-you-go.

@Blackvoid, would you say you were intentionally focusing on specific players when you did your readthrough, or just commenting on individual things as you felt the need?

pedit: who said you were less engaged? Definitely untrue

I focused on Momrangal because she was one of the people I thought was scummy when I was skimming the game. When I found the posts that I remembered not liking, I did my best to explain in-depth why.

I had some initial impressions on some players. I already had skitter as strong town. I don't remember whether or not I was already townreading Shoshin but I think I was. You were actually one of the people who I was neutral on and was expecting to see some good posting from (based on following that towngame of yours) and was surprised how little of what you said were things that made sense to me.

[BlackVoid]

@skitter, how likely do you think is a team with Nauci/Irrelephant? It's one of those possibilities I was thinking of because both of them have scumread the other a lot but they tend to change to a townread and find a different player to push. Considering their reads on each other, I expect more actual pushing but there's very little of actually trying to get a wagon going on the other/trying to lynch them. Obviously that would mean TheWorst would be town but I get the feeling of both trying to set up for a TheWorst townflip. Irrelephant claiming that TW is scum and wanting him lynched today but also pre-emptively making pushes on me even though he says it's unlikely we both are scum.

[Irrelephant11]

I just discovered that 2156 is NOt another votecount thingy, but instead full of words! Wowwwww hahaha and so much of it includes meeee this is

something

pedit: @skitter I think you're possible-scum this time just from my vca and how BV talks about you. If the worst and Not_Mafia are both town, I think BV is the next most likely scum, and you would be his msot likely partner. If enough things happen today to make me think that tw and NM are both town, I'll ISO you again and let you know more thoughts. For now, it was just a thing I noticed while reading BV. I don't scumread you in isolation right now

pedit2: I'm making pushes on you because you've played in real time the least out of anyone in the player list and because I can't *do* anything to sort NM or the worst right now. I'll obviously drop it if the worst is like "Guilty on NM", or even better, "Guilty on Irrelephant"

[Nauci]

Is it really a defense if I just think it's absurd to think anyone would bus a teammate so hard starting as early as page 18?

I mean it's not even personal at that point

If someone wants me to spend half an hour dragging up all of the times Skitter and I have reacted to stuff the same way I will but it seems like such a waste of time because it's not scum hunting. I'd rather be rereading bv/errant

PEdit: how am I pushing for a TW townflip when I said that I would wait for the night to see his alignment because presumably if he's a PR he'd be shot? Seems dumb for scum to try to reverse psychology us instead of take out 2 TPR when one scum is down. I announced that I'd be looking for other scum today.

[Nauci]

I just discovered that 2156 is NOt another votecount thingy, but instead full of words! Wowwwww hahaha and so much of it includes meeee this is

something

pedit: @skitter I think you're possible-scum this time just from my vca and how BV talks about you. If the worst and Not_Mafia are both town, I think BV is the next most likely scum, and you would be his msot likely partner. If enough things happen today to make me think that tw and NM are both town, I'll ISO you again and let you know more thoughts. For now, it was just a thing I noticed while reading BV. I don't scumread you in isolation right now

pedit2: I'm making pushes on you because you've played in real time the least out of anyone in the player list and because I can't *do* anything to sort NM or the worst right now. I'll obviously drop it if the worst is like "Guilty on NM", or even better, "Guilty on Irrelephant"

QQQQQ

This is what I get for spoilering my giant wall posts to make the game more readable

No one reads them at all

:bawl:

[BlackVoid]

@Nauci, what games of mine have you read?

[BlackVoid]

Same question to Irrelephant if you have read any.

[skitter30]

@bv:

i was kinda toying with that idea, tbh, especially given the possibility of town!tw

like between irrelephant and nauci there's just like a lot of ... noise referencing that past game and what they think the alignment of the other is here, especially on nauci's part; it never really seems to come to a conclusion either way but seems to keep on getting dredged up and honestly i'm just kinda skimming those posts because it doesn't really seem to lead anywhere conclusively and neither actually seems to really scumread the other; it's just a lof of nauci explaining that she's incredibly paranoid of irrelephant, although she seems to have come around to townreading irrelephant for kinda meh reasons imo

i'm kinda independantly scumreading irrelephant based on mom associatives and lack of conviction and throwing votes around yesterday and today

nauci like i want to townread but for some reason i just can't comfortably do it; there's a strong element of paranoia that she's kinda faking it; like ep says he thinks she's focusing on salient parts of the gamestate but i don't really think so; she seems to be spending a lot of time doing things like assembling votecounts and tracking down people's meta and a lot of it seems like .... busywork to me almost? idk

i also found it weird that nauci so easily picked up irrelephant's cue to scumread you

[skitter30]

Is it really a defense if I just think it's absurd to think anyone would bus a teammate so hard starting as early as page 18?

no, this makes sense and i think i ought to be cleared based on that and it exasperates me that people don't see this

but tha'ts not really what i'm talking about; it's not like your townread of me became this strong just now based on the flip; you've been talking about mindmelding and super strongly townreading me since i think the end of day1 (maybe start of day2? i don't remember offhand) when there wasn't that level of evidence; and i feel like you keep highlighting how strongly you townread me and it's making me paranoid that you're trying to pocket me

also i feel like there's enough controvesy around tw and his (maybe?) claim that i don't think he's a super high nk target tbh; he's still kinda lynchable in this gamestate

basically i don't know if banking on him getting shot is a good way to resolve this

[Irrelephant11]

Spoiler: Everything BV said about Mom up to 2517

Zzz
This is great and all but let's all build a wagon on actual scum
VOTE: invisible

This is the entrance I liked the least. The "zzz" tries to give off the impression that Momrangal doesn't find anything that's been said so far to be useful and the term "actual scum" feels like she's saying she's got some really good insight that everyone else is missing. But she doesn't actually say what it is. This whole post just rubs me the wrong way. I think the discussion that's happened so far is fine for the first two pages and not worthy of a "zzz."

Cuz what I see is active lurking already happening.

How was Invisibility "active lurking?" At the time you said this, he had already inserted himself into skitter's and shoshin's back-and-forth and posted opinions and clarifications to help move it forward. I think that's fine for page 2. What else were you expecting?

All of his early posts reek of eagerness to look like he's doing something productive and meaningful while doing absolutely jackall.

He's sitting there looking pretty, playing it safe, and it looks like hes engaging with people but the questions are empty.

I'm not seeing how you got that from 39. It looks like he was clarifying whether Shoshin's scumread on Math was RVS or not.

...

DUCCKKKKYYYYYY!!!!if scum, never playing with Gemini again

I'm not following what you're trying to say here. Is replacing out as scum a blacklist-worthy offence? People replace out when they don't have time to play. Alignment should never be a factor.

...

That's to the end of page 30. Catchup is going slower than expected but I'm still hoping I'll be caught up by tonight. We shall see. Feel free to engage my posting. I feel like I have a bit more solid take on the game now. My focus from POE is mostly on Irrelephant, Momrangal, TheWorst, and Northsidegal's slot (but I haven't read any of the replacement's posts yet). I'll do an actual readslist when I'm caught up.

Momrangel's Bernie case and defense of TheWorst is 794 is really convoluted (she lampshaded it in her next post but it doesn't help). Why would Bernie be pushing a mislynch on someone who vouched for him being town? When there are so many other players that he could have pushed and even used TheWorst to help him push those lynches? I also don't get how Bernie was taking a "neutral stance" on TheWorst. And I don't think people would be so simplistic as to simply go after the ones who pushed TheWorst hardest in the event of a townflip. I also thought the narrative of TheWorst as the vulnerable player being piled on and mislynched by Bernie seems a bit forced.

Ugh Nauci you’re sounding towny sometimes but you keep calling for my lynch and it doesn’t feel like you actually think I’m scum you just want me lynched and I want us both to be town but we’re never gonna be able to work together if we are, are we

I highly doubt this is something scum would say to someone they are scum reading/trying to lynch.

I disagree. I don't think Irrelephant as scum would need to lynch Nauci specifically. If he can get Nauci to back off with an emotional-type appeal, that's just as good for him.

...

Also, I feel like everyone has made a decision on duck based on his pred replacing out.

Who did this besides you and Stungun? You literally said in 470 that if TheWorst is scum, you're never playing with Gemini again.

It doesn't seem like no one had taken into consideration that she replaced out because of IRL reasons

and it didn't seem like anyone looked for proof in other games she might be in.

That being said, duck has 30 pages to read to catch up on and that's not an easy feat

The bolded is super weird because you're the one reading into her replace out. You're also very charitable towards TheWorst which makes me not feel good because you're both in my POE pool and you're stretching pretty hard to defend him. I dislike your Bernie and Nauci pushes as well.

intersting to note that mom votes nauci and duckling moves his vote off of mom onto nauci. i'm *pretty* sure from voting patterns that mom and duckling aren't scum together even though mom's defending him; the timing of their votes don't really feel like partners to me.

I noticed that too but my impression was that they wanted to swing momentum onto another viable-looking wagon as an alternative to TheWorst. I didn't like how Momrangal defended both Irrelephant and TheWorst and pushed their attackers and tried to get a wagon going elsewhere.

Defending the worst comes across as towny to me here given how widely scumread tw was at the time - unless they’re scum together, in which case this seems like pretty bad play?

The problem with this is that none of the points Momra made in favor of TheWorst are actually good ones. I think I touched on this before but do you actually agree with the points Momra is making about TheWorst?

...

794 and surrounding were solid af fmpov. like I am not a fan of how I was positioned as scum for my predecessor and irl busyness here. it crossed my mind several times that I was an easy af push for scum to hide behind, and

I found Mom seeing things exactly the same way.

either she's town or has me pocketed hard but I'm not sure what scum!Mom's method is in WKing me here

LOL what? In the post you linked, Momrangal shaded your biggest rock-solid townread that you vouched for (Bernie) and talked about how he's pushing you for a mislynch. This is one of the scummiest posts in the game. Edit: you talk about this later in 1450 but I still don't follow. "Gross" is a bizarre way to describe a push on you that you don't find scummy. I'm gonna need you to explain exactly what these tells are because you're holding onto these "secret tells" that Bernie is town and that doesn't help read you at all.

1371 by Nauci lines up with my own reads well enough that I think it's more likely to be town.

I think Bernie and Mom aren't s/s but maybe also not t/t so I need to reread there

Why can't they be town/town independent of your read on Momrangal? I'm always puzzled when someone claimes that two people are the same or different alignments. How can you make such a determination? The only thing you can really read into pre-flip is whether two people can be scum together, or not.

fake hammer tho

What town motive is there to call out a fake-hammer? I can think of the obvious scum motive; that you don't want your Gamma mislynch slipping away because Gamma reacts in a towny way when he thinks he's been hammered.

@Skitter, I'll summarize thoughts on the Gamma lynch here since you asked. It didn't change my reads much. I still find Irrelephant/TheWorst scummy and am thinking Momrangal is potentially a scum wagon that didn't go through. But that's me saying that nothing rules out this existing scumread as opposed to developing a new one. I think Not_Mafia's and Gustavo's vote are both pretty bad but Gustavo's isn't bad enough to outweigh my stungun townread and Not_Mafia/Invisibility is in a null spot for me. I wish Errantparabola was made to take a stance and put a vote down.

Finished reading until page 65 (end of D1). I'm going to take a short break and then read D2.

gamestate is highly highly consistent with Nauci and skitter being scum with Mom. in retrospect vesides recognising that I shouldn't be lynched she hasn't done a lot. I think I was being stupid yday.

Can you go more into your theory on Nauci/Momrangal? Also, why does skitter spend the end of D1 trying to lynch Momrangal if they are scum together?

Irrelephant is switching his votes around a lot to mostly scumread players. He votes Momrangal, then Not_Mafia, then skitter, then TheWorst, then Momrangal again, then Keyser. I'm conflicted on what this means. His votes don't really make sense as it's hard to believe that he's changing his mind so often on people who clearly can't be scum together and is helping a lot of wagons form. On the other hand, I feel like scum would not want to change their votes so often. Something I'll look into when I read his town and scum games.

Current reads:

skitter30
Shoshin
Bernie Sanders
Gustavo

Nauci
Keyser Soze

Not_Mafia

the worst
Errantparabola
Irrelephant11
Momrangal

@skitter, I'm going to look back to see where TheWorst pushed you as scum. His reads are pretty unbelievable (you, Nauci, Momrangal scum together). I'm guessing that as town, he's a perceptive enough player to know that it's an unlikely team. How likely is he to push difficult lynches as scum? Do you have experience with his scumgame?

The thing that makes me paranoid about the gamestate is that the people I find scummy (like Errant, TW) are okay with a Momrangal wagon and Irrelephant is okay with both. Gamestate-wise, Momra/TW are the two wagons likely to go through so I'm no longer considering them to be partners. One could be scum but not both. I really want to re-evaluate the people outside my strongest townpile but who are not actively in my scumpile which is Nauci/Keyser/Not_Mafia.

It might actually be a good idea for TheWorst/Momrangal to claim. If we're going to wait all the way until intent is given, we're probably going to scramble towards deadline and it seems pretty obvious that those are our likely options.

@Rask, I'm going to do an ISO of both Momrangal and TheWorst before putting down a vote but I'm actually leaning towards TheWorst at this point. Is there anything meta-wise I should know that makes him less likely to be scum? You noted yourself that his view on the gamestate makes no sense at all and his switch to Momrangal saying that he's being wagoned as a counter to that and pushing Nauci/Skitter/Momrangal as the team is really kind of a stretch. I could see Momrangal townreading him for silly reasons but the way he latched onto that and townread her back is I think even worse. Basically, Momrangal called you scummy for pushing him and his response was that her view of the gamestate is totally relatable or something of that sort which makes no sense at all.

This kinda reminds of you pushing GM in our last game and not wanting to lynch Sotty7 because a GM scumflip would clear you whereas a Sotty7 scumflip would still keep pressure on you. I hope that's not your motivation because I don't think either of Momrangal/TheWorst flipping either alignment is going change my read on you. So, I just want to work with your straightforward thoughts on them.

Before you go who’s your gut scumlist

You, TheWorst, and ErrantP are the ones I find scummiest. I wanted to cross-check interactions with Momrangal based on flip but I was sick during the night phase so that didn't pan out so I'm going to get to it tonight and tomorrow.

tl;dr THERES A LOT

BV has very much to say about Mom, going so far as to make "Why did you say that about Mom?" a hallmark of his catchup process. He responds to probably more than a third of Mom's posts, critiquing them individually and never having anything positive to say. Maybe it's just me, but right off the bat BV seems informed about Mom's red alignment, aware Mom is a likely lynch for D2, and doing everything possible to stay away.

But that's not all!

Blackvoid was the one to suggest both Mom/the worst claim, which given town!the worst sounds like a "hey any chance you're a juicier nk target than Shoshin/how can our team avoid your power?"

Finally, though Blackvoid ostensibly has Mom as her scummiest read, followed by errantparabola, then me, then tw, he says this in his last post of D2: "@Rask, I'm going to do an ISO of both Momrangal and TheWorst before putting down a vote but I'm actually leaning towards TheWorst at this point. Is there anything meta-wise I should know that makes him less likely to be scum?"

I'm kinda hoping it's just the worst and Not_Mafia because that's much easier to make happen but I think there should be a lot more eyes on this slot