Jigsaw's Revenge - Game Over

[Titus]

Yes, my analysis is largely my conclusions right now. I have an appointment in roughly 30 minutes and then I'll be out the rest of the day.

I can't really blame you - it's a tough spot.

Look at my suspects though. Do you largely agree with my cursory work or disagree? Can you go suspect by suspect? Can you see why, even if you disagree, why I suspect some over others?

[Battle Mage]

Did nobody else comment on the fact that ABR replaced out, rather than risk getting lynched? Not dissimilar to earlier in the game when he asked to replace out because he was under scrutiny. Pattern?

I didn't sub in specifically because I knew ABR was here. Let's just say ABR is a bully fmpov and takes it personally when he gets wagoned. He makes the game as toxic as possible. Hence why my first post was an apology but I haven't read the entire game.

It sounds like you've read enough of the game

I like you already <3

[Titus]

Did nobody else comment on the fact that ABR replaced out, rather than risk getting lynched? Not dissimilar to earlier in the game when he asked to replace out because he was under scrutiny. Pattern?

I didn't sub in specifically because I knew ABR was here. Let's just say ABR is a bully fmpov and takes it personally when he gets wagoned. He makes the game as toxic as possible. Hence why my first post was an apology but I haven't read the entire game.

It sounds like you've read enough of the game

I like you already <3

I just know ABR and saw the moderator posts as I read VCA to catch up.

[Bingle]

How many pushed you vs pushed iDany and then backed off when you subbed in?

Maybe Vecna? He never really developed a townread on me though, just kinda stopped pushing me. Mostly people were saying they thought I was scum but didn't want to lynch me because of my claim, despite the fact that I kept making posts like:

There's no way you get enough votes to be lynched today, BM.

I'm not willing to vote outside of my hood, which means that in all likelihood I get lynched, which is probably not the worst outcome here, tbh. When my role is confirmed, my setup knowledge becomes fact and there's a small pool of potential players for nonjigsaw scum in the police hood. Dave's reaction of "crumb PR as hard as possible while keeping his actual particulars vague" is not likely to be town imo, because the crumbs make him just as likely to eat a nightkill (trap) as the actual claim would, but keeping the claim vague as shit lets him tailor it further if he lives.

It's also bullshit that he's going to immediately be the nightkill target off of a (I have a 1/the playerlist chance of hitting scum!) when he's a likely lynch and scum is almost at the endgame. Frankly, an investigative that can only hit the godfather would be a nonissue to a 4 person scumteam at this point.

[Battle Mage]

ABR's replaceout doesnt strike me as scum indictative, scum is very close to winning the game and i dont think they're fearing BM right now.

Definitely see town!ABR replacing out. Town is having extremely little fun right now, and now we were threatening to lynch ABR for the lose. It's very tempting to throw in the towel so you dont have to play any longer

I think if the pool of {Titus, Ircher, BM, Vault} came together and agreed on a wagon, thatd be pretty appealing

3 scum and 1 town agreeing on a wagon? I don't love the sound of it. Especially when 2 of those 3 have already agreed on a wagon, which you don't like.

I wonder if scum-ABR would not want getting lynched on his resume, particularly if it blows the game open as I suspect it would. I also think town-ABR would be delighted to get mislynched here and blame me endlessly in the post-game for screwing the town.

[Bingle]

ABR has a rep for being hard to get along with.

I've never had a personal issue with him (except for one game that he got way too salty and outed his team in) but knowing ABR is abrasive is almost a given if you've been on site as long as Titus and I have.

[Titus]

BM, how long have you had your current reads?

[Morning Tweet]

BM, you dont like Ircher and Vault...? What?

[Battle Mage]

Eh. I stopped listening to you when I decided that even if you/ABR weren't TvT it wasn't worth parsing yesterday.

might be worth going back for a look then

[Bingle]

BM, how long have you had your current reads?

I think early D2? He hasn't meaningfully reevaluated since ABR became his top priority iirc.

[Battle Mage]

ABR has a rep for being hard to get along with.

I've never had a personal issue with him (except for one game that he got way too salty and outed his team in) but knowing ABR is abrasive is almost a given if you've been on site as long as Titus and I have.

It's funny though, I used to play with him a decade ago, and he was always a good dude - no issues! Was actually really excited to play this game with him (as Titus can see from the PT haha)

[Battle Mage]

BM, how long have you had your current reads?

I think early D2? He hasn't meaningfully reevaluated since ABR became his top priority iirc.

I didn't even suspect ABR until Day 3. I think probably right to say I've been pretty consistent with my reads since then, apart from where claims etc have changed things. Although that is only 1 game-day.

[Titus]

BM, how long have you had your current reads?

I think early D2? He hasn't meaningfully reevaluated since ABR became his top priority iirc.

I didn't even suspect ABR until Day 3. I think probably right to say I've been pretty consistent with my reads since then, apart from where claims etc have changed things. Although that is only 1 game-day.

The reason I ask this is because you have to ask yourself (if town), why am I alive in lylo? It's pretty obvious why my slot is alive.

[Battle Mage]

What are your thoughts on Firebringer specifically BM?

He's a great guy. Alignment hard to call - could be town or scum. Pretty low down the list of people I'd be lynching in the next couple days. It's not a conundrum to worry about today.

[Eddie Cane]

@BM, Vault is hard confirmed town.

[Bingle]

Yeah, that's def possible. My knowledge of the thread before my rep in is spotty at best. Mostly ISOs and skimming.

I still maintain that ABR's taking credit for the momo lynch looks 100% like town ABR, your stance on momo doesn't look like a bus, and 1 scum in a 4 person neighborhood is a perfectly reasonable choice. I might be wrong (and frequently am) but that's my take on that whole situation. I think someone mentioned you had a large case on ABR when I repped in, do you happen to have a post number?

[Battle Mage]

BM, how long have you had your current reads?

I think early D2? He hasn't meaningfully reevaluated since ABR became his top priority iirc.

I didn't even suspect ABR until Day 3. I think probably right to say I've been pretty consistent with my reads since then, apart from where claims etc have changed things. Although that is only 1 game-day.

The reason I ask this is because you have to ask yourself (if town), why am I alive in lylo? It's pretty obvious why my slot is alive.

Could be lots of reasons for that, although all WIFOM of course.

If town, it could be because your slot was given a key on Night 2 which allows them to escape from any trap?

Or alternatively because your slot is simply scum?

[Battle Mage]

@BM, Vault is hard confirmed town.

...I know. Why are you saying this?

[Titus]

What are your thoughts on Firebringer specifically BM?

He's a great guy. Alignment hard to call - could be town or scum. Pretty low down the list of people I'd be lynching in the next couple days. It's not a conundrum to worry about today.

Can I see a realist from you?

[Battle Mage]

Yeah, that's def possible. My knowledge of the thread before my rep in is spotty at best. Mostly ISOs and skimming.

I still maintain that ABR's taking credit for the momo lynch looks 100% like town ABR, your stance on momo doesn't look like a bus, and 1 scum in a 4 person neighborhood is a perfectly reasonable choice. I might be wrong (and frequently am) but that's my take on that whole situation. I think someone mentioned you had a large case on ABR when I repped in, do you happen to have a post number?

As you asked nicely, I will go and (try to) find it.

[Eddie Cane]

@BM, Vault is hard confirmed town.

...I know. Why are you saying this?

3 scum and 1 town agreeing on a wagon? I don't love the sound of it. Especially when 2 of those 3 have already agreed on a wagon, which you don't like.

[Battle Mage]

@BM, Vault is hard confirmed town.

...I know. Why are you saying this?

Ohhhh, I typo-ed. Meant to be 3 town and 1 scum.

[Battle Mage]

@BM, Vault is hard confirmed town.

...I know. Why are you saying this?

3 scum and 1 town agreeing on a wagon? I don't love the sound of it. Especially when 2 of those 3 have already agreed on a wagon, which you don't like.

Haha yeah, I got the scum and town mixed up in the first sentence (I'm assuming Ircher is town). Kinda ironic really...

[Bingle]

Is no one else getting the feeling that MT has been throwing shit at a wall to see what sticks and then immediately backing down if there's resistance all day?

[Battle Mage]

Reposting the below from early yesterday as requested.

Battle Mage's Setup Theory

4 person survivor hood - includes 2 scum (Momo and ABR)
3 person FBI hood - NO SCUM
8 person (Cop?) hood - Likely only 1 scum, outside chance of 2.
No hood - Likely 2 scum, outside chance of 1.

I'll case ABR properly later, but wanted to set out my theory on the setup first. Reason for this is partly flavour (I spent the night phase reading up on all the Saw flavour!) and partly what I think the Mod would do to balance the game whilst making it consistent with the flavour.

Assumption:

Flavour consistency is very important to the Mod. So far, everyone in hoods, has conformed to the flavour of that hood. This INCLUDES SCUM. Momo had a fakeclaim of a town survivor, but his actual scum character was a survivor in the movies.

One of the premier baddies in Saw is a character called Amanda Young. She was also, notably, a Jigsaw Survivor. My hypothesis is that ABR is Amanda Young, and therefore my hood contained 2 scum originally.

There was only 1 cop who was a baddy in the franchise, Det Mark Hoffman. So he is presumably in the 8-person hood.

John Kramer (Jigsaw) would be outside of any hood. And the remaining scum, I theorise, is most likely to be Lawrence Gordon, who was a doctor, and wouldn't fit in any of the hoods either.

From a gameplay perspective, unbalanced number of scum in the hoods makes sense (to give false positives in the small hood, and everyone chasing shadows in the big hood with only 1 scum). Hoods with the right proportions of scum would be too town heavy, especially with the amount of PRs. Plus it's Saw, so the point is the game is meant to screw with you.

In the game that means:

ABR is scum.
There is 2 scum within: Pisskop, BBmola, Vecna and GuiltyLion
Blake and MorningTweet are town.
There is only 1 scum in big hood, which I still think is Danyboy (especially if ABR is scum, as he loves Danyboy). But we shouldn't be hitting here yet as we have lower mathematical odds of success.

Why ABR is scum

1. PT Behaviour on Day 1 and post-lynch:

I noted at outset of Day 2 his behaviour in PT is exactly what I would expect from him as scum (and only Momo's behaviour made me think he was clean).
He was initially not keen to throw suspicion on others in the hood, and just wanted everyone to follow him. He just 'assumed' Momo and I were town, and only suggested Pine was scum when Pine wouldn't toe the line. ABR was non-committal on my Momo scum-read, and didn't engage with it until after the flip. After the flip, he was excited and jubilant, and claimed credit for the lynch.

2. Flavour:

As noted in my setup theory, I think Amanda Young is highly likely in the game, as a survivor. ABR has instead claimed, in the PT, that he is Corbett Denlon - the child of 2 confirmed townies. She was not a prominent feature of the film franchise, so I'm not sure she would be a character in the game, especially given both her parents were. She was also never subject to Jigsaw's traps, so I wouldn't really call her a 'survivor' at all, and she'd be way way down on the list of likely survivor characters compared to Amanda Young. Gut says it MUST be a fakeclaim.

3. PT Behaviour Night 1 onwards:

During Night 1, ABR suddenly became frantically active in the PT, having neglected it for a while before that (me and Pine were both stuck in traps at this point of course). He claimed his role and flavour, and also claimed that Xtoxm was a "mailman" (incidentally, not what he flipped), and then gave the story I repeated yesterday in order to make me suspect Xtoxm, which on reflection may not have been true. He was not keen on my suggestion of lynching those not in a PT, which suggests if ABR flips scum, there is some more credence to it. I made it clear that I didn't trust him (by not reciprocating his claim, or sharing info about what happened to me in my trap), and since then he has become very angry and aggressive in the PT.

4. Momo wagon:

ABR was not at all eager to get on the Momo wagon, despite my endless cajoling, and the fact he was pretty happy wagonning everybody else.

5. His approach to the hood:

ABR was very keen to reveal the identities of people in the hood, has put lots of effort into protecting everyone in that hood during the day, and has taken a firm line that 1 scum-flip confirms the others as town. Which is exactly what he would do as scum, knowing that 50% of the hood was scum.

6. No Traps:

If ABR was town, I think he would have been high on the list for scum to trap. He has claimed that he doesn't have any immunity to this. This is not conclusive, but very suspicious given scum have focussed on other veterans like me and Farside.

I'm stopping at 6 for now, there is more, but I think that's plenty, and everything else in the main thread so you can form your own view.

Vote: ABR