Mini Normal 2211 || Summer Meet [Endgame]

[InsidiousLemons]

okay i see that vfp

kind of

explained the solve from 1166 in 1202 and 1206 but not fully and not well

I disagree, if Dunn is town and Uma knows then why not focus on Bugs?

because it's much much easier to just go for the hammer that no one will really fault you for anyway? dunn was a popular wagon, i really don't see the scum motivation for a post like 1056,

especially

if dunn is town. forgoing an easy town lim to bus your partner at the last second is not a good trade. if dunn is scum you might have a bit more of a case considering 1155 but as monkey said, that necessitates that the scumteam be exactly {bugspray, umlaut, dunnstral}

Also, I think every scum game I have ever done I have either bussed or pushed my buddy as scum.
If I'm going to lim a scum member, it's going to be a fruit vendor, and not someone who posts less in the game.

ah, the classic "that's what i would have done as scum therefore it's a scum play" fallacy

[InsidiousLemons]

cook can we get a vc? sorry for yoinking your pagetop qq

[humaneatingmonkey]

can you explain how you're tunnelled at me, Lemons, if you had the foresight to say these things:

so why does literally every tpr have to have access to a pt?

They don't. I just made a mistake.

it's an answer to another question

bugspray you can't even comprehend the number of style points you get for winning a mafia game off of a scumslip

once bitten twice shy. is there anything in particular that makes you disbelieve that hem was responding to 899 rather than 901? i understand that it is still sketch but i do think we porbably have better options than HEM today

i'm aware of that fact. i'm saying my confidence that it

was

a scumslip is greatly diminished by the strength and simplicity of hem's explanation, and i don't think it's worth limming over when there are other options on the table. how do you feel about my analysis of ivy's case on osuka?

[humaneatingmonkey]

just kidding, i know you dont have an answer. i'd like to see you try, though.

[humaneatingmonkey]

992 makes a convincing enough case that i could probably go for hem. i didn't notice the time discrepancy at first, and i can't find any other examples of monkey replying to a post that isn't the most recent without a quote or p-edit.

can you also explain this

[humaneatingmonkey]

so why does literally every tpr have to have access to a pt?

They don't. I just made a mistake.

it's an answer to another question

bugspray you can't even comprehend the number of style points you get for winning a mafia game off of a scumslip

once bitten twice shy. is there anything in particular that makes you disbelieve that hem was responding to 899 rather than 901? i understand that it is still sketch but i do think we porbably have better options than HEM today

the timing is all wrong. 898, 899, and 900 were all posted within a minute of each other. 903 only comes 10 minutes after that, and 9 minutes after 901 - he had to have had the time to look at the beginning of the next page. he didn't even quote the post? when you're directing something towards a post that is not the most recent, you generally quote what you're replying to or you pedit, neither of which he did

can you explain how this could convince you, when you seem to have a good head on your shoulders

[T3]

could the scum team actually be bugs-osuka-t3 lol what a world

You really think I would have bussed my motion detector for half the game?
lol this is scum

[humaneatingmonkey]

It is scum, and it's always fun when they've been caught, because they don't have a good answer for why they're town.

[InsidiousLemons]

you won't like this, but it worked on me because i hyped myself up thinking you were scum, you explained yourself well, and then osuka came along with a counter-explanation that looked at a glance like it made sense. and looking like it made sense was enough, because i was emotionally invested in you being scum, so i jumped at the chance to start pushing you again. i like to think i have good deductive reasoning skills, but i am incredibly susceptible to my own emotions, and it's something i'm working on. i'll quote myself from last game:

for me, the best way to avoid making mistakes is to try and remove myself from who i

want

to be scum, who would make the game

easier to solve

if they were scum, and try to look at who actually is, based on the facts. for me, and for many people, allowing myself to get too emotionally attached to the outcome of the game or the flip of a specific player clouds my judgement.

this is what i failed to do this time around. i get excited and commit too hard to things that don't fully add up, see what i want to see in other people's posts. time pressure compounded this excitement, and further fed my desire to have found scum to eliminate. the problem is that this type of behaviour, especially posts like 1018 which was a piss poor argument, is essentially indistinguishable from scum desperation. make no mistake -- this is

bad

, and i won't be surprised if it gets me eliminated here. it's the deadliest fault in my play and something i have to work on as a person, not just as a mafia player.

if i'm being honest i had already started to lose confidence before i even stopped posting, but i pushed it down because it was already too late to back down from believing osuka's 992. i don't really expect you to believe that this isn't just AtE (i'm gonna link 680 so you don't think i'm trying to exploit the weakness you mentioned in that post), but this is the full, real explanation.

[InsidiousLemons]

could the scum team actually be bugs-osuka-t3 lol what a world

You really think I would have bussed my motion detector for half the game?
lol this is scum

wrong game cutie <3 the motion detector flip was in 2209 but shhh because we're still playing that one

[InsidiousLemons]

within the context of this game tho, looking back at 757 and 763 makes me doubt T3 and bugspray go together. this doesn't look like distancing to me. T3 is probably town here

forgive me for not finding those posts particularly memorable lol

[humaneatingmonkey]

is this within Lemons scum range?

@Anya

, since you've shown that you use meta and you vouch for Lemons, would you kindly do the honors? I'm absolutely tunneled here, and even if I feel like this vulnerability could never come from scum, I'm almost certain it can. I also objectively think Lemons was outright scummy yesterday.

@Umlaut

, would you kindly tell me what you think about this one?

Lemons, is your solve osuka > VFP? Can you tell me who your solve is?

[humaneatingmonkey]

@VFP

, is your solve Umlaut/Dunn? Do you understand that you are third in line in the firing squad, and we sorting Lemons town here would mean you might be first-in-line depending on what gambit osuka might bring up. What's your counter-solve?

[humaneatingmonkey]

@T3 - If it's not Lemons (even though it's absolutely Lemons), what's your solve here?

[humaneatingmonkey]

My solve is already Lemons > osuka > VFP, like, I don't think I'll be able to change my mind about this without external input.

[Egix96]

within the context of this game tho, looking back at 757 and 763 makes me doubt T3 and bugspray go together. this doesn't look like distancing to me. T3 is probably town here

forgive me for not finding those posts particularly memorable lol

Sry but I really don't get how those posts would preclude T3 from being scum. The first is a weak meta argument and the second is just an objective statement.

[VFP]

@VFP

, is your solve Umlaut/Dunn? Do you understand that you are third in line in the firing squad, and we sorting Lemons town here would mean you might be first-in-line depending on what gambit osuka might bring up. What's your counter-solve?

Not at all.
If this was my solve I wouldn't suspect others.
Uma is obviously only selective reading though, and getting town credit for something scum do.

And I'm not worried how things go. I think Lemons is town and Osuka can be scum.
Anya is town
And I'm pretty sure you, T3, and Gera are.

I won't buy that at least 1 scum isn't on Bug's wagon.
That leaves 3 players plus Egix for trying to look part of it.

[Egix96]

VOTE: osuka

okay, well, this is my tail tucked between my legs moment. i have been facepalming for the past 2 days at how obviously ridiculous osuka's push on hem was. i understand that osuka and i are both obvscum here, the only issue is that i'm not scum. i may have been stupid enough to believe the scumslip push, but i don't believe osuka is. i've seen his reasoning and it is never this overtly wrong. frankly i'm kind of surprised he thinks this push is still viable at all. yes, i understand how absolutely dripping in scum vibes it is to say all this as someone who hopped on the hem wagon. i'm saying it anyway. i really do not have an explanation for why i fell for the scumslip push other than that i was kinda tunneled on hem and really wanted to have found scum. if you still want to lim me tomorrow, do it. you'll have the votes i'm sure.

going back over the ISOs i think VFP could have partner equity with osuka. it's very rare (at least in my experience) to be able to find comments from osuka that overtly point to distancing with no grey area, so take this with a generous grain of salt, but osuka took multiple opportunities to take swipes at andante early in the game, knowing that she was playing pretty much identically to last game (when she was town). taken together with the post where he says he agreed with my early game analysis of andante, there is a case to be made for distancing here. i cant quote right now because mobile but you'll find them if you look. he'll probably counter that he was trying to see if she would react the same way to pressure, which is valid, but again, things are rarely black or white with osuka. VFP coming in and immediately saying he'll coast again could also be taken as VFP creating an opportunity for osuka to distance. again, the case is thin, but this is all my search for possible osuka partners really turned up. scum!Dunn is still a possibility and he didn't really have enough interaction to say whether there's equity there or not.

hem, it is kind of bizarre to me that you're going for me first over osuka. in your "if dunn is scum" scenario, why do you think i'm the scum over osuka?

anyway, hem is all but conftown for the quick flip onto bugs. the fact that osuka is continuing to push him even after the flip is even more damning.

Well I believed the push too for a while, but you don't see me making such a fuss about it...

[Egix96]

Egix for trying to look part of it.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Okay, would that be what you'll do today? Vote out osuka + try and solve for whoever between Umlaut, Ivyeo, Egix, Dunn? What if it isn't osuka?

[VFP]

Okay, would that be what you'll do today? Vote out osuka + try and solve for whoever between Umlaut, Ivyeo, Egix, Dunn? What if it isn't osuka?

I haven’t decided who I'm voting yet.
I don't think I want Osuka today if its avoidable because there's 1 reason I feel he could be town, and no I'm not going to say why.

You're talking as if I've spent 5 days straight saying x is scum and I'm not sure where this is coming from or why you want to instantly shut this down?
Outside of the vote on Bugs why is Uma town here?

[humaneatingmonkey]

what are you doing

[humaneatingmonkey]

you're trying to characterize me as close-minded when i'm trying to discuss your reads with you

[osuka]

Anya what do you think

that's half the reason i'm voting osuka tbh lemons entrance to the stage today is really good and makes some sense while osuka is statically pushing you like he's an electrician with no other thoughts

if you're me and you rolestopped hem, that vote makes much more sense

hem gets rid of lemons here to make me look bad and gets rid of two people at once, including a PR. he can't kill me lest he implicate himself, so he kills lemons instead and goes "how did osuka know that flip was green"

i kinda sorta have a soft clear on lemons unless there's some other protective role or roleblocker that's unclaimed. if that's the case, i might have this all wrong but please please please don't claim

[VFP]

you're trying to characterize me as close-minded when i'm trying to discuss your reads with you

Then I must be reading what you are saying wrong as it reads to me that I'm only pushing Osuka in your view?