Several, actually. Would you prefer to hear them from me, or from others?In post 2434, Green Cap Boys wrote:also, now that those flips have flipped that, can anyone offer me an actual good reason to townread mastina?
Do your own research? Like, maybe the fact that so many players are saying I am town is because they are intimately familiar with the sheer night and day difference between my towngame and my scumgame? In the last two, three, years or so, my scumgame has been painfully, painfully, PAINFULLY obvious and my towngame has also been painfully, PAINFULLY obvious.In post 2437, Green Cap Boys wrote:i've been saying since literal day one that mastina's tunnel should not be a reason to townread her but everyone was like "no no no mastina is town by META this is TOWN this push is town mastina she is TOWN because META" so like what was i supposed to do
You don't have to take the word of everyone--but perhaps consider that the options are:
Everyone was misinformed because somehow some way I just so happened to have pulled off a scumgame performance the likes of which they have never ever seen before, a scumgame better than any scumgame I have had for literally years, able to fool the likes of players who have topped the charts in ability to read my alignment for years, suddenly inexplicably randomly in this game out of the blue for no reason whatsoever, that I managed to overnight pull off a massive improvement to my scumgame for some random reason...
...Or that everyone was right and they knew I was town because doing any modicum of research will plainly show that, actually, yes, it really IS that obvious that I am town and when I am scum it is just. that. obvious.
You can do the research on your own or you can even ask for my assistance and I can readily provide you with every scumgame I've had and every towngame I have and for you to look them over and see for yourself. Suffice to say should you do that research though there literally is only one conclusion; either I am making a literally god-tiered sudden inexplicable replication of my towngame as scum in spite of years of being unable to do so, or this is another towngame just like most of my other towngames.
But if you wanna go "meta is trash" in spite of how, in this case, it very much isn't? The main credit I have is defending Titus on D1 and the fury I have and the passion I have and the insistence on D3 that I have and the night actions I have committed and such. (See below for more on that.)
Dwlee I fucking
I was saying Mastina is evildare
you to vote me.Dead serious here: DARE. A fucking DARE. I'm legitimately dead serious here in
daring
So I AM dead serious about that dare.
I fully expect you to be a coward and not take me up on it, for good reason, because if you cast the first vote, if you cast the first stone in that fight, regardless of your alignment you probably lose.
After all: my job gets a lot simpler if instead of needing to identify three scum, I have one identified for me. So go ahead--make my day. Vote me and see how it works out for you. This is not a threat, it is a promise and a guarantee. I know I am town and if I am wrong about you being scum and you happen to be town you should fucking know that I am town. But as it so happens, I
don't
think I am wrong about you being scum.I am explicitly not claiming because Dwlee wants me to claim and in fact him wanting me to claim first is incentive for me to not do so.In post 2442, Dwlee99 wrote:mastina
Unfortunately.
In order to fulfill my promise of explaining things on D3, I need to claim my night action anyway.
On N2, I pain potion'd Reinheirdt (the Bingle slot).
Getting into this, the basic outline of my plan was nothing special. Originally, my plan was as such; I recorded this thought for myself, but my thoughts continued to evolve after I wrote that as a basic note to myself (to record my intentions and make sure I didn't forget them, more or less).In post 1659, mastina wrote:It's really not much of a plan if I'm honest.In post 1654, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I really don't know what you're planning but i'm not complaining Mastina.
When it came to the Bingle and TLDNE slots, I chose to use a modified version of a philosophy from Lady Lambdadelta. I can't find the quote where she explains this philosophy (I thought it was in defcon 4 but can't find it there), but my version basically amounted to: I wanted to push for the removal of the slots I felt would be the largest obstacle in the town solving the game and getting cohesion. (I realize that mentality is somewhat toxic, and I do apologize for it, but I genuinely believed that, toxic as that mentality may have been, it'd be the key towards a town victory by removing
every
possible distraction from the town and leaving the town with no convenient scapegoats, no convenient mislims, allowing for them to hone in on scummy behavior actually
indicative of scum.)I believed those to be the TLDNE and Bingle slots, and with both being pain potion'd N1, that meant eliminating one and pain potioning the other would get the intended results. I realized it was a risk, because obviously, in the worst of worst case scenarios, we wouldn't see a D3, but even in a lesser of the worst case scenarios, the end result of that all would be two dead town at minimum.
Over the course of the end of the day, I began to feel that instead of {TLDNE, Bingle, technically-Fairy-Circle} containing a minimum of one scum, that it would contain a maximum of one scum. I knew that wagoning them could thus potentially derail scum wagons elsewhere, e.g. on the likes of Dwlee or RCE (who top the list of suspects, barring a reread).
Going back to this, I was actually planning on saying that I agreed with T3 here 100% on all of these reads today, but obviously, with some healthy skepticism needed as to not make a mylo/lylo mistake. As in, I fully agreed that Fairy Circle was town by meta and Norwee was town by meta and GCB was likely town by meta and that T3, for these observations, was incredibly likely to be town.In post 1599, mastina wrote:I have thoughts on this but I won't share them unless I live to see D3.In post 1584, T3 wrote:mastina is town by overall meta, Fairy is town for meta in response the pressure from Flea, Norwee is town for meta in response to pressure, GCB is town for Datisi's emotion in terms of meta.
Again, to reiterate: I cannot blindly assume from these that the scumteam would be those not among the named, of it being Dwlee-RCE-Aristeia. All of those assumptions require rechecking and reassessment with the information from the flips thusfar that we have had, in order to get a better idea of which players are probably town in general, which players can only be scum with a specific scumteam, which players are more likely to fit as a scumteam, etc.
But it fit as an initial "theory", which, so to speak, would then be so to speak scientifically tested, by analyzing the evidence and seeing if the assumptions held true, looking for every doubt in the theory, every thing that would contradict it, every weakness in the theory, but also if this so to speak gutcheck initial hypothesis had merit to it.
If you think I'm bullshitting having townread Fairy Circle in spite of my posts yesterday:
This was me signaling to them that I was townreading them. I repeatedly said that it was something that either individual head might not be able to figure out but that the combination of their hydra might be able to piece together. Momrangal has the experience with past-mastina to know that this is the sort of thing that, while rare, I would occasionally do. Where I would keep a read close to my chest and not reveal it to others because I didn't want my revealed read to affect others. Flea would lack that knowledge, but Flea would have the recent experience with me to notice I was trying to signalIn post 1640, mastina wrote:I'll tell you if I am alive on D3.In post 1595, Fairy Circle wrote:I threw down a bingle vote when I came back, we even threw him a potion at night. What dp you think pf that(If you/Mom are really REALLY smart between you two you might be able to figure it out on your own but if you can't, wait until D3.)
something
to faer, and that I had the experience with fae to have developed that townread but a need to not express it publicly.The reason for this format in my readslist was to not give away the Fairy Circle townread and that they were outside of my POE. I wanted scum toIn post 1653, mastina wrote:While I don't want to give a full readslist unless I live to D3, I do at least want to give a PARTIAL readslist today:
Never Eliminating or Pain Potioning:
Green Cap Boys
NorwegianboyEE
Probably Not Eliminating or Pain Potioning:
T3
Possibly Not Eliminating or Pain Potioning:
The Emperor (almost put him in above category for what it's worth tho)
Dwlee99
Beyond that, you'll just have to wait and see.
think
I thought them viable, and the only way I could do this was by obscuring them and leaving them in the remainder in spite of them truthfully being either at the T3 level or the level above. Because the beyond that, was something crucial and important.Both of these were important. The first half was continued attempts to signal to Fairy Circle, and only Fairy Circle specifically, that I was townreading them.In post 1792, mastina wrote:I assure you, I'm not. When Mom is around I hope you can ask her what she thinks since this is the sort of thing that I don't think you can figure out on your own and which she might not be able to figure out on her own but between the two of you you might be able to piece together what I've been getting at.In post 1678, Fairy Circle wrote:You're trying to read Mom thinking faer me. Soooo no. I can't work it out. Because your basis is wrong.
For the record, I don't currently think Dwlee is scum but this is perfectly plausible of Dwlee being scum as it is exactly the sort of action he would do as scum knowing he would do it as town.In post 1672, Dwlee99 wrote:So I watched t3 last night and no one harmed them. I picked t3 because I thought two things: if t3 is scum, we could get clears cause I thought town might dump shots there. And if t3 is town, scum might attack him because they'd suspect he is unlikely to be watched. That no one attacked him makes me think now that t3 might be evil.
But that's not something to tackle today. Today I've got a limited vote pool and Dwlee is outside of that today.
The second half was deliberately chosen in wording as it was at this point that I began to doubt Dwlee, via seeing the similarity between Dwlee's 1672 with Dwlee's scumplay in Open Draft Mafia. It was my way of saying:
"I currently don't have Dwlee as scum, but he'll top my charts tomorrow as an initial suspect, which I will need to sift through in more detail tomorrow on D3. I don't think a Dwlee elimination D2 will remove the cloud of doubt on the town the same way Bingle/TLDNE would, so I'm tabling the read there until D3, where I will reassess things in full. I
currently
don't think he's scum, but if my assessment of the game is very flawed, he's one of the first places I'll look." (Thus my wording in 1799 being "current
assumption overall
". Current and overall both being key words there.) Here I more or less outlined basically my motives behind pushing Bingle/TLDNE. I felt that removing them from the game would be a huge shift in the gamestate, forcing everyone--myself included--to radically shift their approach. It felt like it was the only way to make sure that going forward, we had a damn good grasp on all of the events in the game.In post 1837, mastina wrote:I mean that's what happens when the folks who drive the D1 elimination don't actually get anything from said elimination* and the folks who WOULD get something from an elimination of their choice* didn't get an elimination of their choice and there being no nightkill. (It's almost like the Titus elimination didn't change the game at all whereas other eliminations would have.)In post 1803, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Is it just me or does this game feel really dead and tired.
We're effectively in a D1 part two.
*What I more or less mean by this is, whenever an elimination of my choice goes through, it has a big noticeable impact on my play the following day regardless of the alignment of the eliminated player. It forces a shift from me where my play changes and adapts as a direct consequence of the flip.
The players who pushed Titus yesterday are, today, playing exactly the same as they did yesterday. The Titus flip had no noticeable impact on their play. They didn't shift, they didn't adapt. They're exactly the same as they were before the Titus elimination. Meanwhile since a Titus flip is not a flip I endorsed, it had no noticeable impact on my play the following day because it wasn't a flip I wanted. No shift from me because there's nothing different today to tomorrow for me.
And given the time, it would allow us to recheck, reassess, everything, do a full reread and a full "Once More, With Clarity" read of the game to understand things we initially got the wrong idea/impression of.
I kinda sorta tipped my hand here to the townread on Fairy Circle by not including them in the list here, if you want more evidence that I'm not bullshitting having developed a townread on their slot yesterday in spite of continuing to list them in the elimination pool.In post 1841, mastina wrote:That, or my + Datisi's read on The Limit Does Not Exist.In post 1840, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Should i just sheep Mastina on their Bingle read?
I'm not exactly picky as to which.
Same here.In post 1868, mastina wrote:These are things I will answer!In post 1843, Bingle wrote:What are your current takes on FC? What would Bingletown do to your reads?
...On D3.
As for Bingle-town, this requires a full reread to get nuanced thoughts on. My initial thoughts were basically:
As Bingle-town meant no scum had been wagoned up high beyond fleeting wagons which capped at 3 and were never the majority for any signifcant period of time, scum could do whatever they want and say whatever they want and be at very little risk (but this requires research that my reread will be verifying);
Bingle's reads were sincere and need a revisit that I genuinely take to heart;
The scumteam did not act under the guide of Bingle's plan so I should look to theorize what the scum, not following Bingle's plan, actually did (which is possible, but requires research done through a reread);
The chances rise exponentially for certain players to be scum and for others to be town but the exact combination of this I need to do a reread to figure out for sure.
I realize it's not concrete
yet
, because inherent in this is that I needed the Bingle townflip to start it, meaning I couldn't do this overnight; I needed to wait for my pain potion on his slot to go through and kill him. In order to start the work, D3 needed to have started, so I haven't done it YET, but I have a good outline for what I need to do, where I need to look, what I am looking for, the signs I am looking for, etc.Here was another attempt to hint at my plan without revealing it. I didn't want an elimination on RCE, T3, Emperor/Aristeia, etc., in spite of believing there needed to be scum within there. Because I knew that while a scumflip within there would be good as dead scum is better than living scum, a wrong townflip within there would be disastrous as a Titus V2 which would leave the gamestate on D3 unchanged.In post 2036, mastina wrote:Forgive me for not having confidence in plurality serving us well D2 especially given that plurality is very likely the only way we'd end up with eliminations on slots like RCE, T3, Emperor, etc. today instead of TLDNE or Bingle.
Trying to eliminate scum.In post 1873, Fairy Circle wrote:What are you doing?
In short, I valued the guarantee of good information (which happened to include my two highest scumreads) over the chance of a scum flip that had too much chance of hitting town and giving us shitty information. Basically, it was a risk-reward analysis. The risk behind eliminating TLDNE/Bingle and pain potioning the other was virtually nil; the reward for that was incredible as it could have netted 1-2 scum and even if both were town, it would give us an actual tangible amount of workable leads on D3.
In contrast, the risk behind eliminating outside of TLDNE was hitting town and not having a changed gamestate on D3, all for a
chance
at the reward of flipping scum.So this was why, in spite of thinking RCE had a decent chance of being scum, I was against his elimination. The risk was too high, because if I was wrong about him being scum, nothing would change in D3 and I was not in any way shape or form highly confident in him being scum.
Here I was afraid I basically was spilling the beans on my plan, because I gave big hints that I wasn't interested in killing Fairy Circle and gave huge hints towards the reason/motive for pushing Bingle/TLDNE as hard as I did.In post 2038, mastina wrote:Butyeah, I do not believe there's zero scum in {Bingle, TLDNE, Fairy Circle}.
It's not three scum in there, obviously, but beyond that I want to wait until D3 to give a full breakdown...ideally with the names in there mostly dead. Bingle and TLDNE are the two that I most strongly believe in being scum and are the two I am most pushing.
To the contrary!In post 1902, Bingle wrote:Limit is a pretty shit wagon, tbh. It gives no more info than Titus’ did yesterday.
There's literally only three wagons which give us information:
The Limit Does Not Exist, Bingle, and sure I guess Fairy Circle.
Flips on any of those would give us boatloads of information regardless of the alignments within.
Literally any elimination outside of that? RCE, T3, Dwlee, Emperor, you name it?Thatwould be a wagon giving no more info than Titus's did yesterday.
There's a damn good reason why I'm pushing the TLDNE/Bingle wagons so hard right now.
This was another huge hint of the plan, where I basically outlined part of the motive behind it. I DO have an initial draft of what the townflips mean. It's not something that is enough to lay a vote down without research and verification and whatnot, but I actually did do some loose rough theorycrafting of what townflips would mean. But in order to solidify that, I need to read specific parts of the game with this info, which required me having the info.In post 2348, mastina wrote:I think the reasons for Limit to be scum are good, and the reasons for Limit to not be scum are lackluster, and that a Limit flip regardless of their alignment sheds more light on the alignment of all the players by giving us a much better understanding of the gamestate for all of D2 and that with their death, we will have a far better grasp of town vs. scum going into the night and tomorrow.
Now, I can actually explain some of the "Limit-town means x, Limit-scum means y" logic, but given the gamestate right now, one of the reasons I want to stave off doing this and have been saying "I will reveal this on D3" is that honestly: I don't want to do the massive amount of theorywork, theorycrafting, hypothesizing, analysis, for whichever alignment Limit isn't. I want to save the time/effort involved and cut it in half and do all of it after the fact, aided by the information from any flips we get on N2.
I do have a decent mental draft of it in my head. It's not rock-solid, it's not something concrete, but it's something I genuinely believe would be the best for the gamestate and I can explain more...
...On D3.
Here's more and explaining more or less why I couldn't do this until just now. I didn't know Limit was town after all so I couldn't do the work assuming Limit was town before a Limit flip.In post 2349, mastina wrote:As hinted at, I can do that now theoretically but I genuinely honestly would just prefer to do this...on D3. After we've got half of the equation. There's a lot of number crunching involved because it doesn't involve just your slot; it also involves every slot in the game and cross-referencing them to get a better lock. Much easier to do with at least half of the possibilities removed, if not more. (For every flip we get N2, the amount of work I need to do lessens. A downside to the scum is that for every kill they make, they reduce the number of players who could be scum and increase the number of players confirmed to be town so unless we eliminate town and the scum can make three eliminations happen on town with none on scum, scum, scum cannot endgame overnight and given scum endgaming overnight requires the stars aligning pretty much perfectly, if they attempt to do this but fail, D3 gives a plethora of flips and information to work with.)In post 2102, Bingle wrote:How does your read on me change if limit flips town? Scum?
Well, for a start, Green Cap Boys, obviously.In post 2102, Bingle wrote:Who can’t be scum with limit?
I'd think I'm also fairly clear as well, objectively speaking.
Beyond that we get into the realm of uncertainty and guessing at probabilities versus possibilities in crunching the mental math odds with each slot--and again, I'd prefer to not do that work until D3 after we've either confirmed or denied (anticonfirmed? negative-confirmed?) that the slot is scum.
I COULD do that work now with a LOT of effort, but I really don't have it in me.
I basically gave it away, here, too.In post 2351, mastina wrote:This is another reason for the Limit elimination btw. And another reason I've focused on {Limit, Bingle, Fairy Circle}.In post 2117, Bingle wrote:It is XLO if there is damage done on three town, scum have 3 pain pots, no town jk/doc a no target, AND no scum die tonight. If we eliminate someone who has been pained, it drops the odds of one or three. Scum having three pain pots split between their members remaining isn’t a sure thing by any means.
TLDNE is the best elimination for the game and it's not just because I think that they are the slot with the highest chance of being scum; they are also the slot I genuinely think gives the town the most information regardless of their flip (with Bingle and Fairy Circle a close second/third) in that regard as well as one of the slots we lose the least from eliminating (in that it removes a potential scum wincon even if they are town).
In post 2378, mastina wrote:I can say that now in fact.In post 2376, The Limit Does Not Exist wrote:love this look for yall. really i do. mastina’s case on us was actually insane. yall do remember that she was using meta based onhearsayof my play and now we’re a policy elim so tomorrow she can be like “no wait! I didn’t say they had to be scum though!”
I didn't say you have to be scum; I am fully aware that you could be town and I could be wrong.
I happen to think you are scum and I happen to believe that even if I am wrong you were the best possible mislim we could ever make if we were to mislim today.
Which is pretty damn close, admittedly.
But sure, I did technically not say you had to be scum, because you don't have to be.
I just think you are anyway.
This was in my own way a preemptive apology to lillith/SS as I imagine they're less than enthused as to the nature of my plan and rather miffed at it. After all, the plan does have some toxic elements to it from the LLDesque mindset that inspired it.In post 2381, mastina wrote:Basically to put it a different way: We obviously should aim for scum, not for the least-damaging mislim.
Limit if they are town I truly believe would be the least-damaging mislim we could have, but I also happen to have campaigned for their elimination because I genuinely feel they are the slot with the highest odds of flipping scum, and as we should aim for flipping scum, Limit was who I was aiming to eliminate.
So while I may not have said Limit has to be scum.
The sentimentality carried behind "Limit has to be scum!" is more or less there, in that I think that Limit IS scum and if I were wrong (which I don't think I am but it always pays to at least acknowledge the theoretical situation where you COULD be wrong), Limit was the least-damaging mislim to make and best possible non-scum elimination that could happen.
But again to reiterate. I still think Limit is scum here.
We'll find out soon enough I suppose.
Here I also basically spilled the beans on the plan. My plan was a TLDNE + Bingle flip to get us into the best possible D3 gamestate where we would have the most clarity and unambiguity.In post 2384, mastina wrote:There's nothing stopping me from, at any point, breaking off a tunnel and switching to being honest in my stances/beliefs/etc. And in some rare cases, I will do so. But I do so when there is a need for it, and today I deemed there to not be a need for it.
There will almost assuredly be a need for it on D3 regardless of your alignment, mind you. But I legit thought that getting a flip and rushing into D3 was the healthiest possible thing for the gamestate. It's a calculated risk, obviously. One I could be sorely mistaken about. And if I fuck things up I will own up to the mistake in having miscalculated, having made a mistake and having been in error, but I have to stick to what I feel is the best and I felt like pushing my scumread on you and pushing for your elimination was genuinely the best thing for the game.
Unrelated, but still important to clarify now that I am able to:
For the record, I DID notice the contrast between Datisi in this game and Datisi in tris's mini normal that I designed. (I was, after all, reading along.) Datisi's effort in that game was evident in a way absent from this game, but I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt that the reason Datisi wasn't as hardcore overdrive in THIS game was due to him being hardcore overdrive in THAT game.In post 2037, mastina wrote:Could be, but I've my own idea for why it isn't. Datisi for instance is...otherwise occupied and regardless of Datisi's alignment, I would expect that this game would not be at the top of his priority list right now. Given enough time, I'd expect this game to rise up in priority for him but right now I've good reason to believe he wouldn't be prioritizing here.In post 1876, Fairy Circle wrote:I also feel like a strong earlt game presence and then a tapering off could be scum indicative for the green bois.
I still am willing to give that benefit of the doubt to some degree, but I admit that there is some caution behind it. I can't blindly beyond-any-shadow-of-a-doubt townbin Datisi because the contrast between the two games IS rather stark, and I cannot afford to ignore it even if I believe that the contrast was not indicative of an alignment but rather indicative of which game he was most focused on. I still think Datisi is town and that the difference was precisely what I say here, a focus on that game meaning no focus on this one, but I cannot have blind 100% faith in that assumption as it's at least
possible
the difference is due to alignment even if I currently believe otherwise.It takes time and research to determine, which I've yet to put in but plan to.
