Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[VP Baltar]

Probably also worth saying that because we couldn't scum hunt in earnest D1, I could only look at people doing mech discussion mostly. Shrug.

[numberQ]

NumberQ can you rewrite your thoughts for me please? I am having issues understanding your wall.

I don't know exactly what parts you had trouble with but I'll try.

It was analyzing the swap in the context of Pav and Toog associations (since they were both in my location before getting split). There are 3 scenarios I went over:

1) Toog is scum, Pav is not. Splitting them up makes little sense, because it's putting implo (who was fairly TRed D1) into the Wall (which would have had myself, Toog, and Pav, 3 slots who were not very TRed). Why not keep the three of us in the Keep so it's that much harder for town to win?

2) Both Toog and Pav are scum. This makes even less sense. Again, pulling implo into the Keep is a bad move, plus now the scumteam is putting Pav in the Keep. The Keep is the hardest game for scum to win, so putting Pav there doesn't make sense to me. DArby was strongly SRed by most of the player list, and Pav had 0 interactions in the thread before the swap happened. So it would be unlikely for him to win the Keep for scum.

3) Both Toog and Pav are town. I think this scenario makes the most amount of sense. None of the problems with the above 2 scenarios are present here. It would imply that implo is scum, so the scumteam would see this location as Toog + me fighting, which is a scum win. And like I said before, Pav is unlikely to be voted in the Keep, so now the scum slot in the keep only has to worry about being voted over one other player, not two.

This is the opposite conclusion that I would have come to through pure play analysis, and I'm very uncertain on it.

NOTE THAT my followup post does undo some of this, but I tried to keep my general state of mind at the time of the post.

In my followup, I realized a flaw in my theory, which was that I didn't consider that scum HAD to swap. That makes scenario 2 more possible I think. Now, in a scum!Toog/scum!Pav scenario, one of them definitely has to go to the Keep. I speculated here that it would have made more sense for Toog to go instead of Pav, but rereading it I think I flubbed my thoughts as they came out onto the keyboard because looking back that doesn't make sense lol. I'm pretty sure I wanted to say it DOES make sense for Pav to be swapped out in this scenario. It was late after a day of housework don't @ me.

So ultimately, both Toog and Pav could be scum in my eyes.

[numberQ]

Long night made me forget a lot of the game state lol

Was Pav moved because they're scum and it was obvious that slot would be voted out at the Wall? I could see both Luke and Ari being town tbh in light of this swap.

So basically you think it could be a scum-scum swap scenario?
If implo is scum then scum had a more or less guaranteed win with implo at Keep, given he was the most townread of the three, so I'm not sure there'd be benefit for them in this swap unless their read on the gamestate is significantly different to mine.

I refined my reads later after giving the swap more though, so no I don't think it was a scum/scum swap.

Oh wait, if Pav is scum and they were swapped then either A) implo is ALSO scum and we managed to put one scum in each location by accident, or B) Toog is lockscum.

From your POV yes, I'm a bit wary of how you state this without that qualifier though. Since for the rest of us it only means either Toog OR you are scum.

If I'm town, I know I'm town. If I'm scum, I'm trying to appear town. Is it not a given that my POV in my analyses will be that I'm town? That's true for literally everyone in this game. I don't see anything productive in saying "if I'm town, this. but if I'm scum, that."

[Tanner]

baltar, if you're scum who needs to ic one of me/imaginality and 1v1 the other one, who do you pick for what and why?

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm also believes he can pocket Pavo and get him to vote for Lukewarm because of their history together.

I don't think I would have thought this if I was scum. In every single game we have played in together since my first scum game against him, Pav has taken a "I can never commit to a Luke town read" Turns out having a single good scum game against someone and they will never trust you again. (although, he did scum read me in my second scum game against him, but apparently that does not cancel out the first, cause he kept saying it lol)

[Lukewarm]

I don't think I'm going to vote unless Tanner tells me it's ok to trust that person

Yeah, Tanner should be involved in the choices for each game

[Lukewarm]

I think The Wall should resolve right away. I think both imaginality and Baltar have given at least a few stances that serve as associatives to do the Gate and the Keep.

I think that the game names a swapped here.

I am not following what makes the Gate better then the other two to go first? Someone (implo?) made a point about the gate only gives us two flips, while the other games give us three.

[Lukewarm]

Currently nursing a 100.7 low grade fever. I've felt like crap all week. It ain't Covid though, so small blessings.

Aww, feel better toog!

[Lukewarm]

Tanner, I am only skimming. Are we certain to have a scum at the gate? If yes, resolving that first makes sense. We can yeet imaginality into the sun.

um.

Does this make Baltar town?

Also, Baltar, you do realize that imaginality is only confirmed town from your POV, and not from tanner's, right?

[Lukewarm]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

Can you explain this to me?

[Tanner]

Also, Baltar, you do realize that imaginality is only confirmed

town

from your POV, and not from tanner's, right?

luke and vp confirmed scum ggwp

[Lukewarm]

Tanner although we are worlds apart may I still flirt with you? the two lads in the keep seem more interested in each other :/

him being the replace in and the swap choice put a spot light on him for me lol

[Lukewarm]

Also, Baltar, you do realize that imaginality is only confirmed

town

from your POV, and not from tanner's, right?

luke and vp confirmed scum ggwp

I hope this isn't serious lol

I did think his "we just yeet imaginality" line was not looking at the game from anyone elses pov

[Aristeia]

thank you for the music last night ari, it was lovely, and i did sleep really well.

I don't think I'm going to vote unless Tanner tells me it's ok to trust that person

If I get to 100% sure of the solution I will not hesitate to vote.

could you tell me the difference between these two?

I'd like your help but if I get to the point where I'm 100% sure I wouldn't wait for it.

It's fairly rare that I ever get to 100% on anything.(except for thinking you're town <3)

[Lukewarm]

I am trying to pick your brain to see what information that gives you about the rest of the game and why it might be so.

Right. Me getting your thoughts also is helpful though. Two way street and all. I'm merely asking you to comment on the gate. I understand wanting me to talk first on the other games.

"I want to know if you think I am town or scum before I tell you my reads" is an interesting angle to take as either alignment lol

[Tanner]

@Tanner: you not wanting to go with numberQ and DArby makes me slightly suspicious that VP and I are both town and you're scum trying to get in with us so there's one scum among us. You saying DArby should be with VP and me if you're not doesn't do much to dissuade me from that concern.

That said, I kind of like the idea of you going to Gate with us because I think if you are town and get IC'ed you'd be a useful voice. And I think the same of VP and me, whereas DArby if town seems less useful if IC'ed.
For the same reason if VP and I are at the Wall I'd rather DArby is with us than you.

imaginality, you *really* wanted me at the gate, huh.

[Tanner]

i usually feel like i wanna evade being ic any way i can

tanner you dumb fuck lol

[Aristeia]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

Can you explain this to me?

I think Baltar is a much stronger 1v1er than Imaginality, it feels like a bit of a mismatch to put him at Gate, I think you/implo would have much better odds of winning the 1v1 there.

[Aristeia]

i usually feel like i wanna evade being ic any way i can

tanner you dumb fuck lol

I mean I did tell you not to go there and get IC'd but you ignored me

:shrug:

[Lukewarm]

Ah you know what, I think my theorizing isn't considering the fact that scum HAD to swap. That might make scenario 2 more valid? Because then they definitely have to send either Toog or Pav to the Keep. Does it make sense for them to send Pav? I did lightly SR Toog D1. Though I don't think I gave off an indication it was a strong read at all. Just bad vibes mostly. Whereas I was pretty happy with my DArby SR. And it doesn't look like implo talked about either, so that'd be null in the scumteam's decision. IMO it would have made more sense for Toog to go to the Keep in a {Pav, Toog, ?} situation.

I don't know that it would make more sense for Toog to go over pav in this scenario. I think that scum!Toog always loses in a Me, Ari, Toog keep and that scum!Pav likely loses in a Implo, Pav, numberQ Wall.

My current theory is that there were 2 scum at the Wall, and they had to choose someone to go to the keep. And they just accepted defeat at the keep in order to bolster their chance to win the wall.

That applies to both a Toog+pav team and a numberQ+pav team

[Tanner]

oooh, spicy. any reasons for those? who goes to which one?

Given the keep is set, I'd like to put my strongest town read there.

I'm also abiding by your request because that doesn't bother me, and if you're town maybe it will help you.

And then it is just separating the low content slots of number and Darby. Obv if I put you with my group, it is kind of a fun twist on your request, but may not be good trying to sort two low info slots in the same game. (Though as I'm typing this, I'm thinking 'sorting two in one game means maybe you'll only lose one game!')

As far as who goes to what game, I don't have strong feelings, but maybe Gate, keep, tower in that order?

you mean wall? if so, i actually don't hate the idea of going to the wall with you and imaginality, sending implo to the keep, and throwing the rest at the gate.

you mean wall? if so, i actually don't hate the idea of going to the wall with you and imaginality, sending implo to the keep, and throwing the rest at the gate.

Yeah, wall sorry.

baltar, do you remember why you wanted me/you/imaginality at the wall originally?

[Tanner]

I think Baltar is a much stronger 1v1er than Imaginality, it feels like a bit of a mismatch to put him at Gate, I think you/implo would have much better odds of winning the 1v1 there.

how does the fact that luke self-assigned at the keep immediately play into this?

[Lukewarm]

We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.

?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Imaginality, what was the purpose of this question?

I feel like the answer was fairly clear given Ari's stances - They should never want themselves to get vote power, that is anti win con, and then they said that they thought I was town.

I guess, my point more is, why are you asking Ari this instead of talking about who

You

think should have the vote power?

[Lukewarm]

oof. messed up the quote

[Lukewarm]

We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.

?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Do you think Luke is bluffing about voting for me to convince you to vote for him?

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

Imaginality, what was the purpose of this question?

I feel like the answer was fairly clear given Ari's stances - They should never want themselves to get vote power, that is anti win con, and then they said that they thought I was town.

I guess, my point more is, why are you asking Ari this instead of talking about who

You

think should have the vote power?