Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Tanner]

do you actually townread vp and you got scared i was gonna hammer him because of it or....?

[RH9]

do you actually townread vp and you got scared i was gonna hammer him because of it or....?

I townlean him and yes, I got scared.

[Tanner]

maybe vp really is such an airhead he missed his partner trying to theatre with him after they agreed in the pt that they will theatre lol

I don't think I said I town read imaginality, did I? My memory feels like he was a bit middle of the pack to me

i asked you how were your reads looking like from memory then, you never answered... kinda wish i pressed further at the time

And as I mentioned in my wall, remember also VP was aiming for me, him, DArby at the Wall so if DArby is town I think DArby was the intended mislim for that mini game.

mmm. so from town!imag perspective, he would see scum!baltar proposing imag/baltar/darby. wouldn't it then follow that darby is town? like, this comes right after he calls my pre-flip flip read associate darby town case a waste of time because he didn't want darby with him and baltar. not because my logic of "scum would want a 2 town 1 scum" is incorrect.

also, my post on why darby slot is town was fucking brilliant and the fact that like 2/3rds of the game jumped on it to tell me it's nonsense should've been a sign it was good

at imag's wallpost 971, i forgot to eat dinner again, be back in a bit.

[RH9]

See you, Tanner!

[numberQ]

Still like 40 pages behind but I am at this exact moment going through Luke's ISO and picking out interesting posts to comment on. So this is not a vague "I'll probably get to it later" like my last post lol. I'm half-working at the moment though so the final result of that may come later considering Luke has like 260 posts.

[Tanner]

when can that be expected? we don't have much time left.

[implosion]

And in particular your previous two posts are also "I'm about to catch up" and "I'm about to catch up".

[implosion]

I guess specifically I want to hear your opinions on my posting and RH9's posting since you've last commented, since the Wall is where you are.

[numberQ]

Results of hyperskimming his first 200 posts:

First off, kudos to Luke I guess because he has a very town looking ISO for most of the game.

Anyway I am going to focus on my minigame, because I've been very unplugged from the Gate this whole time so I feel my current efforts are better placed here. Then I can look at Gate stuff later if need be.

Luke was pretty good at giving reads to all three of us at the Wall. Here's where he talks about implo:

Spoiler: implo talking

Maybe you already answered this, my bad if so. But who would you be comfortable voting in that 3rd slot?

Implo is probably my top choice atm

Here are my thoughts on each slot after doing an ISO dive on them - apologies in advance, these are rough. Did not find time to do a second pass

[snip]


Implosion

post 79 is a pro town post I think. And it is his genuine thoughts on the set up, given it being the same that he outlined in the scum chat for that game, post 11 https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12894505

89 -- hmmm. Him linking directly to his scum chat, where he made that similar post, almost undercuts the townie points from 79. Because, yes they look exactly the same as his genuine thoughts, but he also pointed everyone directly to where we would need to go to see that.

I did reall like his follow up with me [118, 129] and my decision to go the keep. Felt like he was trying to get to that info to sort me.

I also find his 178 very pro town to make. Scum implo wants me making the vote to avoid the scum in the keep from being forced to make the vote, so trying to talk me out accepting it is pretty +town for him imo. And, this one (more so then post 79) is something that he very easily could have just stayed out of. Like it was a fight between me and Ari, and he was not in the keep yet. I think that scum implo ignores my post about being the one to vote.

[/u]Reread verdict if there is no swap[/u]
I am leaning towards them both being town here But, if there is no swap in the keep, I think I get get the vote power. If I had to chose right this second, I think I would vote Ari?

Like I said, I have played with Ari before, and she is hitting the same cords with me. And then with Implo, I also realized that a lot of his iso is focused on mech, and while his mech all seems really spot on and pro-town, I could possibly see scum hiding behind that? But again, this is just "if no swap" - otherwise, I am leaning both town here.

One sort of small thing that I've noticed: I, for one, absolutely forgot like half of my opinions overnight. I did not think about this game almost at all during the break and I kind of imagine scum would have been thinking about it more than town

I feel like this might also be a personality thing - I for one get mildly obsessive with my games, like lay in bed at night thinking about them. But, from what I have seen from Toog, I don't think that he is that way. So, your point about Toog seems good.

I feel like people keep making good points, or they make posts that ping me, and I keep flip flopping on numberQ/Toog and imaginality/Baltar. I need to nail down my reads on these 4 :/

Almost entirely townreading implo. No boat rocking here.

Spoiler: Toog talking

I would not be opposed to Toog coming to the keep with me an Ari. They are the only two people on this player list I have ever played with, so might help us read each other ?

I'll go where I'm told to go. The game looked like an interesting exercise in ways to play out MeLo. I have absolutely zero preference in where I end up.

Like, you want people to suggest where you go? Or are you wanting to be the final person who ends up in just what ever slot is left?

I'll fill in unless someone wants me in a particular location.

This seems like a town post?

Scum would want to make sure they end up in different places, so "I'll go where ever is left" seems townie I think.

I think it's a mistake to say scum would 100% want to have control over where they're going. Like yeah, they need some amount of control so that they aren't all in the same location. But depending on playstyle, I can easily see scum just shrugging their shoulders when deciding where to go. Particularly as an entrance to the game, where there's less pressure for scum to pick their location compared to some potential later scenario. It's not difficult to say first thing "I don't care where I go", then later come up with a reason to go somewhere specific.

They may also predict reactions like yours, and are seeking the towncred.

Well again, it wasn't just the entrance. It was the entrance

plus

not accepting the invitation to the Keep.

Seems to me that he is either town who really does not care about where he goes, or he is scum who does not want to go the Keep - so my Ari town read is propping him up a bit, because I am not sure why else he would not want to go to the keep when given an easy opportunity.

The Wall

Toog

I mentioned before that I like Toog's entrance for town.

His iso feels a little more barren on an iso-read vs a real time read though.

I still think it is +town that he did not engage with me on possibly joining the keep. Obviously scum!toog could not jump in, but me voicing a town lean on him, mentioning him joining the keep, and then me and ari getting into a 1v1 - that would have had to have been an appealing slot for scum!toog, and I would have expected him to at least test the waters on joining, asking about if he should, ect. Instead there was radio silence.

Again, there is not a ton more in his iso... so I would say that I am leaning town here, but not as strongly as I had Ari or Implo.

[snip]

Again, almost entirely townreading Toog.

He townreads me as well except for one post where he analyzes the location makeups, but I closed that tab already so I don't have the quote handy. That location analysis isn't really even a SR on me though? Regardless, I'm not going to linger here because I know I'm town.

The interesting bits happen once RH9 reps in. I won't quote everything because I'm really short on time right now and have to run, but go to the second page of Luke's ISO and ctrl+F "RH9". He starts scumreading him hard, a total reversal from his Toog read. Which is normally fine, it's a new player so a new read makes sense. But what does scum!Luke gain from going after scum!RH9 so hard? Luke was in the hardest game for scum to win, and RH9 is in the easiest game for scum to win. Not sure it really makes for scum!Luke to work on trading those odds.

If I was scum in the Keep I'd probably just consider it a lost cause and do my best to muddy associations. And my final thought for now is, wait, is that literally what Luke did and I'm falling for it?

I'm like 15 minutes past when I should have stopped so this is to be continued. Things to do: investigate RH9 and implo more closely.

[RH9]

numberQ, are you up to the part where I reaction-voted you and implosion didn't hammer?

[RH9]

What do you think of that?

[Tanner]

it's past 1 am, and the past... 3 hours i have been doing literally anything i can to procrastinate this game. but, i've just noticed something... weird.

And another quick thing. I wasn't in favour of DArby joining me and VP so that speculation about both me and VP wanting that was a big waste of time.
I proposed Toogeloo as the third in post 275 and then argued against DArby and for Tanner being the third in post 314. On the other hand VP initially proposed DArby as the third and only said 'maybe swap DArby for Tanner' so it's not like Tanner was his first pick for the third slot.

And as I mentioned in my wall, remember also VP was aiming for me, him, DArby at the Wall so if DArby is town I think DArby was the intended mislim for that mini game.

this was imag discussing my "both imag and vp wanted imag/vp/darby, we know there's 1 scum in imag/darby, therefore darby is probably town because scum wouldn't be buddying 2 of themselves together". imag dismissed my idea, but not because talk is cheap, because he did not want darby with the two of them.

now, town!imag would know that vp is scum, so even if he found my idea bad because imag didn't want darby there... shouldn't he still find darby town from it? because from his pov, he has scum!vp arranging a trip of vp/imag/darby. yet that's not really the conclusion.

This seems very plausibly like buddies not wanting any connections between them. Note also that VP's proposed setup always had numberQ in a different game to him.
...
numberQ and Toogeloo both look very plausible as buddies. VP had both numberQ and Toogeloo at a separate location to himself so I don't think we can distinguish between them that way

due to these parts of the wall in 971, you can't argue that imaginality didn't believe in "scum!vp could be purposefully putting buddies together", since he used the arguments of "vp wanted these players at different locations than himself" as +scum points.

I'd also note here that VP first proposed me+him+DArby/Pav, Tanner was just listed as an alternative. And from a scum!VP perspective DArby/Pav is very much mislim bait if town. So if DArby/Pav is town, VP's first option was what he himself says is a 'way easier scenario' and his backup option was a player who he knows will town read him for being at the same location. Flipping Keep first will confirm if DArby/Pav is town or not.

in this post, imag once again talks about the fact that vp wanted a vp/imag/darby location. he even proposes to flip the keep first to see. but like, shouldn't the logical conclusion from town!imag's pov here be that vp was trying to put two townies with himself??

I feel surest about Ari being town and Luke has said he thinks Ari's town so if it's entirely my call I'd get Luke to vote Ari.
If we do the 'get the scummiest player to choose who to vote' thing I'd get Pav to choose between the other two.

because, imag sure did not advocate for voting pav in the keep.

like, i know i might be confbiasing here, but this kind of feels like scum who was, at the same time, using the arguments "vp didn't want to go to the same location as these players" to be +scum points, while somehow never making the connection that "vp wanted to go to the same location as this player" to be a +town point. there were like, at least 2 opportunities for that connection to be made. yet it wasn't made. because town!pav was supposed to be the "toss this yeetbaity slot at the keep, nobody is ever going to be voting him lmao" townie?

[VP Baltar]

[ ]=======
=======[ ]

[Tanner]

oh would you look at that. i post a new reason why imag might be scum, and it takes baltar... 5 minutes to show up. when i'm going through the thread by myself? when other players are doing analysis? nowhere to be seen.

[VP Baltar]

oh would you look at that. i post a new reason why imag might be scum, and it takes baltar... 5 minutes to show up. when i'm going through the thread by myself? when other players are doing analysis? nowhere to be seen.

Oh I'm here all day on my phone while I work. I literally don't care about wall analysis etc. because thus game will be over if you'd just hammer imaginality.

[VP Baltar]

But I've given the road map of where I think scum is if you do choose wrong.

I think you're just procrastinating a decision with all this work you're making for yourself.

[Tanner]

this is like... 3rd? 4th? day in a row i am up well into the early morning hours, staring at open 840 - guardians of the fortress [day 2] on mafiascum dot net

[VP Baltar]

this is like... 3rd? 4th? day in a row i am up well into the early morning hours, staring at open 840 - guardians of the fortress [day 2] on mafiascum dot net

You have the power in your hands to end this torture (and you probably should today given deadlines and how much time is going to be needed on the wall if you pick wrong).

[Tanner]

I know

he's reached a level of play so horribly inconsistent that I'm thinking it only comes from town talking out of their ass.

my first thought was "what if this is scum trying to use tstbs on their buddy to get me to hammer wrong at gate" before i realized the problem with that argument, my brain is completely fried

[VP Baltar]

You're going to have to type Vote: TKTK at some point.

[Tanner]

at some point is not now

this is my method of dealing with all of my life problems and it's turned out fine

[VP Baltar]

[VP Baltar]

Put this on, type out your vote, and press submit at the peak of the chorus.

[Tanner]

fucking hell i love that song

it's gotten to the point where this is some vile shit if you're scum here lmfao

[VP Baltar]

it's gotten to the point where this is some vile shit if you're scum here lmfao

That's what I have been saying!