Regarding the role itself, as I've mentioned I think it's certainly possible that Cupcake is scum. I was going to say 'scum making up the delay' here, but my brain is telling me right now that Cupcake could even be a scum delayer that targeted AP. I'm not sure if that's actually plausible at all, but I'm taking too long with this already so moving on!
As I've said, Cupcake-scum is pretty not safe imo with the gamestate as it has been. Lurk2victory worked with Mastin around, but as I mentioned I really don't see how he would have continued to escape everyone's notice, and I don't think Cupcake-scum would have thought so either. The thing is that the claim isn't even a certain death sentence for Cupcake-scum, as there are town explanations for it even with AP-town, and I believe he could have been fairly confident of an AP lynch given the reasonable suspicion on him before the JSU/CF claims. So no, I don't think scum-cupcake would not do this.
But the big question is, could Cupcake be town here? And just based on roles, I definitely think so. I'll clarify slightly that our role pretty strongly suggests that there are
at least
two roles that can roleblock but I think there's decent reason to not say anything more about that until later. So do I believe Cupcake could have been roleblocked? Yes, I do, but Ceph and I both think that the play from Cupcake itself, particularly relating to the claim, is scummy (although perhaps for different reasons) and I will explain my thoughts here.
The reason why I was interested in cupcake the previous day was the nature of his lurking. He was able to post at semi-regular intervals, but never actually seemed bothered by the fact that he wasn't doing anything, didn't seem to make any attempt to do more than nothing, and wasn't replacing out (which he did in the game I saw Katsuki-town). This made me think this kind of thing was more likely from scum who either had trouble keeping with the game because lolscum, or scum deliberately going for that style of play (which actually fit when people were saying it was Katsuki-town meta). While I still think I could be right about this, I think the things relating to the claim are stronger.
-First, Cupcake pushing forward on AP despite JSU's claim doesn't make sense. JSU is both saying that AP's alignment is town, and that he wasn't delayed. Therefore from Cupcake-town's PoV it should make much more sense to want to lynch JSU, or at the very least express interest in this and work out if it's possible, because JSU-town ----> AP-town, but it's not necessarily the case the other way around. But no, Cupcake relentlessly pushes on AP with no apparent consideration of this (or anything else in fact) at all!
-There's also
5521 which I just really disagree with and suspect that Cupcake doesn't actually believe it either, because it's not like Cupcake was a super popular strong townread.
-And finally the fact that there are many people that are just a lot more likely to be town than Cupcake.