Mini 1608--Mafia on the Air(Fin)

[Nashville Dreams]

OkaPoka meta:

TOWN:
Newbie 1505 (VT, lynched D1)
Micro 349: Clinic Madness (Town Doctor, lynched D1)
Mini 1582: Formerfish's First Foray (VT, lynched D1)
Newbie 1523 (Town tracker, killed N3)
Newbie 1492 (Town 1X BP, survived and won)


SCUM:
Micro 344:Vengeful - Lynched D1, (Scum PT)
Micro 352: Chosen Mafia - Lynched D4, (Scum PT)
Newbie 1507 - Game was a draw (survived), (Scum PT)
Micro 370: Gerrymander Mafia - Lynched D1, (Scum PT)

~~~

Going to go through these this evening. The one thing that struck me was the Oka is lynched surprisingly often. 100% of the time he was town but not a PR (3/3), he was mislynched D1. (I'm not counting the doc as a PR since it was a clinic madness game and everyone is a doc).

So, maybe you should be giving him consideration based on VI-ness Ffery. I'd be interested in your thoughts on his meta.

Hardly. Just looking at his meta, and if there's zero significant revision, the longer he is alive without being significantly wagoned... the more likely he is scum.

Duh

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

That's really not a good reason for thinking he's scum. What's your read on him independent of that?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Those are really weak and generic statements and lack fire. That's the major difference I saw from your play here to your play in your towngames. You say Honeybee is town for "scumhunting" which isn't really a justification and is tantamount to saying "she's town because she's town." What do you mean "informational?" How are her posts informational in a way that other player's posts haven't been?

Gneral gut, she seems focused and not fluffy. There was a lot of fluff posting this game.

I'm still waiting on you to post a list of reads with reasons.

[OkaPoka]

Nashville Dreams (null, I had a scum read before but rereading gives me a meh read)
Cutty Shark (null, too many posts to keep track of, very confusing)
5-Off (EXTREMELY TOWN READ! LOOK through his posts, he presents his case well and strongly. He scumhunts like a madman)
Anatole (Null)
The Fonz (Null)
F-16_Fighting_Falcon (Null, right now towny but previously null)
Baboon Pride (Scummy. Presented case and his votes are generally full of scum/)
fferyllt (Town, brought scum down strong scumhunting)
OkaPoka (Cool)
Lissa (Scummy, keeps flipping and a bit hypocritical. Doesn't make much sense.)

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

1) Break down your 5-Off read for me in as much detail as you can. Nearly everyone disagrees with you on it and his slot is about to be lynched. Why aren't you doing anything about it if he's your strongest townread? You say it is "obvious" why he is town according to your walls but I ISO'd you and searched for 5-Off and have absolutely no idea why you are reading him as town.

2) Why did you have a scumread on Nashville before? What of the re-read convinced you that they are not as scummy?

3) Why was I null previously when you had Gossamer Wings as scum? Are you aware that I was in the hydra before my partner replaced out?

4) How did Ffery "bring scum down?" Hadn't the wagon on Honeybee been already built up before she replaced in?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

(Baboon, F-16 [wish you were more active but I don't consider it a fade considering it was simultaneous with Tammy's replace out]),

Bork, why does it matter that Tammy replaced out when you are factoring in my activity level?

[Cutty Shark]

Because she was responsible for by far the majority of the content from your slot on D1?

Anyway I've partially been holding off because I don't really know what to do at this point in this stagnant day. I'd still rather lynch 5-off slot considerably more than Baboon.

I am getting an air of 'don't give a fuck' from Oka and I think that's probably the primary driving force in his motivation right now regardless of what his alignment actually is.

I'm gonna go back and respond to something from Anatole in a sec.

-b

[Cutty Shark]

This is obviously from before the Bee/FT lynches. "isn't going to happen" With a quick look over her ISO, I don't see any real defense of Honey, just dismissing any suspicion even though Honey's day one looks really bad.

This is actually I think a decent point.

Baboon - why was 'Honey not going to happen' but you were willing to compromise on a slot that had done even less (ree/ffery slot)?

-b

[Baboon Pride]

I didn't think honey bee was going to happen, IIRC it was near deadline at the time and Honey didn't seem like it was a viable wagon since it only had like, one or two votes at the time? Had also assumed that ree would have gotten active eventually, and I have better luck/enjoy playing/know more about him than I do honey, and thus could actually read him (and ffery). Don't recall the slot I was willing to compromise on, though it was likely due to the readability thing that I could look forward to/go look back at after I had gotten FT flipped as scum.

Would also much prefer Oka and Lissa over FUT/5-off. Don't even know why we're voting that slot.

[Baboon Pride]

as far as our wagon goes, nashville is town, but Titus is being idiotically stubborn and she actually hasn't done the reset she's promised to do (I think) at the beginning of this day phase

anatole is, meh. Don't actually remember why he is voting us, though I do remember thinking that he could be town who believed he had an actual case

I keep keep thinking that Lissa is most likely scum between her and 5-off, though ceph still thinks 5-off gambitted, though I still think it's just fluid as fuck and just rediculously advanced

and Oka is probably scum

[Baboon Pride]

though if FUT is scum, I still think Oka is the most likely to be the one pushing the CW to protect scumbuddy, and the one most likely taking advantage of titustunnel, so regardless stuff point to Oka being scum

[Baboon Pride]

VOTE: Oka

I think this shouldn't have ever dropped, and I don't even know how it happened in the first place.

[The Fonz]

I find it kinda lulz that the issue I raised about Baboon right at the beginning of the day is being discussed now. Better late than never, I suppose. Still think 5-Off is a better lynch.

BP, the longer this goes on the more I think the simplest and most plausible answer to 'Why is 5-Off claiming to have one role PM, while the other three (including the late 5-Off) are claiming to have a different PM that is common between the three' is that it is 5-Off/FUT who is the scum.

Mara, have you discussed this at all with Ceph, who thinks the 5-Off slot is 'fairly obvious scum?'

I'm still leaning town on Oka but want to let F-16's interrogation run its course. I think "Let's wagon him because the longer he lives without being wagoned, the more likely he is to be scum" is flawed, especially when you're [Nashville] trying to wagon him on the same day he replaced in.

[fferyllt]

as far as our wagon goes, nashville is town, but Titus is being idiotically stubborn and she actually hasn't done the reset she's promised to do (I think) at the beginning of this day phase

anatole is, meh. Don't actually remember why he is voting us, though I do remember thinking that he could be town who believed he had an actual case

I keep keep thinking that Lissa is most likely scum between her and 5-off, though ceph still thinks 5-off gambitted, though I still think it's just fluid as fuck and just rediculously advanced

and Oka is probably scum

f-16 would you describe 5-off's scum game as ridiculously advanced?

[fferyllt]

So, maybe you should be giving him consideration based on VI-ness Ffery. I'd be interested in your thoughts on his meta.

My thoughts are that his play as town comes off scummy to a lot of players. Maybe including me. My initial reaction based on a meta skim was that this could be another in a growing line of towns that mislynch him.

His play absolutely gives me hives though, from that early post where he talked about "to my advantage". I can't imagine ever posting something like that as any alignment unless maybe I were a claimed 3rd party with a neutral wincon, and even then I'd probably say it as a contrast to what I was actually doing, e.g., "x would be to my personal advantage, but I did y because I'm going all in for a shared win with town."

It's a statement I have difficulty mapping to town motivation. And it was said utterly unselfconsciously. even after I called the post out he saw nothing wrong or odd about it.

So.

I guess I want more time to figure him out. There's an opportunity for this to be the first town to sort town-him accurately - if he is town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

as far as our wagon goes, nashville is town, but Titus is being idiotically stubborn and she actually hasn't done the reset she's promised to do (I think) at the beginning of this day phase

anatole is, meh. Don't actually remember why he is voting us, though I do remember thinking that he could be town who believed he had an actual case

I keep keep thinking that Lissa is most likely scum between her and 5-off, though ceph still thinks 5-off gambitted, though I still think it's just fluid as fuck and just rediculously advanced

and Oka is probably scum

f-16 would you describe 5-off's scum game as ridiculously advanced?

I wouldn't say it is "ridiculously" advanced but he prefers playing scum to town. In the site where we played at, all games were role madness games and revolved around night actions and scum typically don't get fake claims. Good scum play mostly revolved around crafting convincing claims which 5-Off excelled at. Dayplay wise, he was good at pushing mislynches on townies by posting smooth-looking reasons for why they were scum and being generally persuasive and manipulative. I remembered there was a game where 5-Off was scum with FT as town and I

think

5-Off's partner claimed a guilty on FT and got him wagoned, and then 5-Off took great pains to derailed that lynch, point out why his buddy was scum and bus him instead earning him a long-term town read from FT. Not sure I have the details right but that's the gist of it. He'd go to great lengths to be manipulative.

He's played one game on mafiascum so far which finished a week or so ago (Newbie 1527). He was scum there (Scum PT) and was playing pretty well until the Jailkeeper jailed him and he got lynched for that but his partner carried through. I definitely think he can manipulate interactions with buddies to make it seem like he is not aligned with them.

However, the fact that he was so involved in that game and posted at endgame about his strategy while ignoring this one makes me think he could actually be town here but it is not conclusive.

[OkaPoka]

Read 5-offs iso. He is open to answering questions and scumhunting in every post basically.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Read 5-offs iso. He is open to answering questions and scumhunting in every post basically.

I don't see what is so special about him that doesn't apply to anyone else and is making you townread him so hard and so passionately. Generally, when people have townreads they are invested in, it comes from lots of interaction, seeing the gamestate similarly or one of the defending the other or being in the same boat. You and 5-Off have never interacted in this game. You don't know him at all. Why are you so sure that he is town and so passionate about that read?

The generic answers you've given me are unpersuasive. Everyone is "scumhunting" to some extent. Everyone answers questions asked of them. Give me more than that.

[OkaPoka]

Read 5-offs iso. He is open to answering questions and scumhunting in every post basically.

I don't see what is so special about him that doesn't apply to anyone else and is making you townread him so hard and so passionately. Generally, when people have townreads they are invested in, it comes from lots of interaction, seeing the gamestate similarly or one of the defending the other or being in the same boat. You and 5-Off have never interacted in this game. You don't know him at all. Why are you so sure that he is town and so passionate about that read?

The generic answers you've given me are unpersuasive. Everyone is "scumhunting" to some extent. Everyone answers questions asked of them. Give me more than that.

I know this is generic but have you read his iso? Just read it. It pings town as hell.

Tell me one thing that is scummy about him. He has been consistently giving strong reads and arguably one of the stronger hunters.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I'm not saying his ISO makes him definitely scum. He's in my POE pool. I'm more interested in the basis of your townread there. Okay, sure let's go through his ISO together.

Nashville, what about Bork and Ika are specifically town to you?

This is 5-Off's first post in the game. This question had already been asked and answered. Asked by IHNC in Post 27 and by Cutty Shark in Post 31. Nothing particularly impressive or groundbreaking here.

Did you even read the post that was edited?

A random enquiry that is fairly null.

Fonz, what's the problem with Lissa's post?

this interests me.

Why does that interest you and why do you like Fonz's post? For the record, I stand with FT in believing that there was nothing wrong with Lissa's post.

He took a stance where he implicitly defends FT and positions himself against Baboon Pride. If he was scum, he would have to buddy FT since he knows FT from a different site. It could be town taking a stance as well. Overall, it reads null.

Do you understand how the word "gimmick" was being used in the edit?

More non-alignment indicative questioning of Flubbernugget.

I can't remember who, but someone in the PM said there was scum in there.

That was I.

A clarification that he was the one who claimed that there was scum in the neighborhood.

We weren't told who is in the neighborhood, but someone in there was told that scum was part of it. So, scum could literally just lurk, gain information secretly, and negate any pro-town neighborhood-strategy. I just don't see the point of keeping it secret or harping on it. I'd rather move on and talk about things that matter. Like Baboon's alignment.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I agree. You not sucking so far is a slight town-tell.

More agreement with FT. He could be town agreeing with FT. But if he was scum, agreeing with FT is to be expected anyways so it doesn't really say anything about his alignment. It is possible he is scum angling to manipulate FT though.

@ FT, I think it is entirely possible 5-Off is gambiting.

~ F-16 (I'll sign my posts if we're both online to avoid confusion)

F-16, what's the scum benefit to that sort of gambit? Town-cred? You know me well enough to know that I don't care about town-cred as either town or mafia, so there's certainly no personal motivation if that's the case.

A fair question but not something scum would be unable to fake. I do wonder about what FT said though about how he assumed I was scumreading him when I really wasn't.

I'm ready to watch I have no creativity hang. F-16, help me lynch 'em?

That's hilarious

So 5-off...

So 5-off what?

Also, how do I clear my quote button? Every time I press it, it automatically adds everything I've previously quoted.

Also, what is pedit?

Fairly non-alignment indicative.

Okay, that reasoning makes sense, so long as we agree that I screw with peoples heads regardless of my affiliation. xD

Responding to F-16.

Agrees with my response and backs off of his questioning of me. I thought he backed off rather quickly tbh.

Seriously don't respond. I'm already annoyed with you and all you will do is annoy me further and I'd rather be able to work with your hydra.

Ugh.

this is tammy or Falcon?

I'd looooooove for you to call this is non town tammy tone.

This is non-town tammy tone.

Jokes around with Tammy.

I'm ready to watch I have no creativity hang. F-16, help me lynch 'em?

That's hilarious

So 5-off...

So 5-off what?

Also, how do I clear my quote button? Every time I press it, it automatically adds everything I've previously quoted.

Also, what is pedit?

Was asking if you were gambitting. You've since stated you're not.
Too tired to understand your quote thing.
Preview edit. If something gets posted in between you starting a post and hitting submit, it lets you edit your post before submitting again.

And I still state that I was not gambiting.

Insists that he wasn't gambiting.

Why are you so insistent on tunneling? So that you don't have to analyze anyone or anything else? Or..?

Questions Nashville's attempt at sorting Tammy. It is true that Nashville trying to sort us felt odd but they were hardly "tunneling" us. He uses "tunneling" to spin a negative vibe to Nashville's posting. Nashville is also the sort of "easy target" that scum 5-Off would want to prey on.

294 was a joke, yes. It's still early yet to make reads (even light ones), in my opinion. If you are going to FOS me for that, I will gladly direct you to places where I've publicly stated that DP1 in mafia is useless and that only gut reads matter. My gut hasn't spoken much yet. I think that the conversation on whether or not FT stole reasoning from whoever that person was is irrelevant. FT is full of himself, he dismisses the analysis of others because they are not-FT. The two people that strike me as odd are Nashville and the guy who quoted the "hydra gimmick" thing, but there's nothing significant there yet. Lissa's looking good so far. I want to hear more from F-16, his hydra seems to kinda suck.

Explains his stances on D1 lynching. He would do it as either affiliation. In fact he did so in his scumgame so it is null. The jab at FT felt playful and midly townish but I wouldn't put it past him as scum to criticize FT to manipulate him. I liked that he was asking for me though so he could read me.

My two cents: The neighborhood shouldn't determine what group of players we lynch in because, as said earlier, we don't know who is in the neighborhood and scum could be lurking.

Sound advice. But non-alignment indicative. Players who are logical as town are logical as scum.

almost guaranteed to have scum in the 1 of 4, or, in my perspective, 1 of 3 FT being the most likely of the three. Aside the fact, both Lissa and 5-off have been newb-town, mostly from the neighborhood and Lissa's in thread content has been, as well. As far as "gambit" goes, it's unlikely to come from newb-scum.

pedit: yeah, mostly. What about FT do you not get, and what has he even done that's town?

I have 3-4ish years of mafia experience, so while I appreciate the town vibe, you are getting it for the wrong reasons. In fact, I don't usually get read as town when I'm town, so that's odd, but let's ignore that for now. We already established that scum could be lurking in the neighborhood pm and we wouldn't know it. Granted that, why are you so eager to lynch in that group?

I love this post though. Him thinking it odd that he is getting townread instead of lavishing in the townread actually makes me lean town there. It is that sort of thing I don't think 5-Off would fake at a new site.

Hood people - how active were MaraCeph and FT in the hood before, say around 11 PM CDT (GMT-5) last night?

-b

If I'm converting timezones correctly, Ceph had 4 posts and FT had 2, maybe 3 if I'm an hour off. Nothing major from FT, and some light analysis from Ceph.

Information, not analysis. Hence null.

wow this case on FourTrouble is total shit

QFT.

More agreement with FT basically. Could be because he is town and like me, doesn't want FT lynched if FT is town OR it could be scum sneakily trying to get on FT's side and manipulate him.

What wasn't mentioned is that in that game, FT was the one person who realized I was BSing with my fake claim. Having played with FT, I think he evaluates anything I say to determine if it could be a gambit before reacting. I could deduce that he's the cop and then gambit claim cop and he'd give me enough rope to get the reactions I need from other players. I don't think a game played a few years ago with players that have no connection to the ones playing this game is relevant.

More defense of FT, this time from me and Tammy. I see a recurring pattern of defending FT based on fairly weak reasoning.

Given the lack of support for lynching I have no creativity, gonna see where this goes:

Vote: 5-Off

I guess I started white-knighting you too late, aye?

A cutesy post acknowledging that he was whiteknighting him. Don't like the tone of it but nothing conclusive.

Okay, that reasoning makes sense, so long as we agree that I screw with peoples heads regardless of my affiliation. xD

I want this explained.

vote 5-off

I fake-claim, lie, gambit, and manipulate people as all affiliations. As scum my goal is to get into the heads of all other players. As town my goal is to get into the head of the mafia, and as I result I couldn't care less about the rest of the town or how they perceive me. I don't play

with

the town, but rather

against

the mafia.

All caught up. I still don't know how to clear my quotes. If I quote something it will show up, but then when I post and quote something else, everything else I've already quoted also shows up and I have to manually delete it!

Both completely null posts.

As I've said, FT's default read on anything I say is "gambit".

Reading comprehension, am I right? As I said, when he thinks I'm gambiting he gives me rope. He caught my gambit immediately in the last game we played together but he went along with it.

More defense of FT.

Hey man, I'm sorry to hear that. Take all the time you need.

Are you Tammy?

More null posting.

~~~

That's his first 25 posts and I'm not masochistic enough to go through his whole ISO.

QUOTE me the posts where 5-Off did this awesome, amazing, groundbreaking scumhunting in a way that nobody else has and explain your read there.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Updated Votecount:

Vote Count 2.8

SIIIIIGH

Nashville Dreams(0):

Cutty Shark(0):

FUT(2):

Cutty Shark, The Fonz

AnatoleKuragin(0):

The Fonz(0):

F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):

Baboon Pride(4):

Nashville Dreams, Anatole Kuragin, Lissa, OkaPoka

fferyllt(1):

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

OkaPoka(2):

fferylt, Baboon Pride

Lissa(0):

Not Voting(1):

FUT

With ten alive, it is six to lynch.
Replacing FUT...

(expired on 2014-10-09 16:00:00)

~~~

Okay, so I've just gone through 5-Off's ISO in his completed Newbie scumgame (linked to Ffery earlier). I haven't played with him in a while but he's doing pretty well. His posts came across as thoughtful and inquisitive, he "scumhunts," asks questions, and provides meticulous and detailed analysis. So, the quality of his analysis is probably not a good way to read him unless you know exactly what you are looking for. His posts there come across as manipulative in hindsight. For instance, he buddies Hatstand (who played with him offsite) and argues with people that are scumreading her just as he buddied FT here and argued with whoever attacked FT. He townread me as well. His interactions with me and FT feel different from how FT and I sorted each other out because 5-Off didn't really put that much effort into sorting us.

The way he went after Nashville when Tammy voted them felt manipulative although he was reading Nashville as scum earlier so it isn't conclusive. There is one thing in his posting that I really like - him wondering why he got townread and saying that he doesn't usually get townread as town. That felt really genuine and an unlikely thing for him to fake. I'm also leaning towards the gambit being maybe town but not unfakeable. I don't like his interactions with Honeybee. Lots of interaction and talk about theory.

Another thing that worried me is his lack of conviction in his pushes. As town, I've seen 5-Off have lots more conviction and certainty. I've seen him fake that as scum too but in a less natural, more malicious way.

~~~

Onto Oka. I haven't finished the meta-dive but most of his posts felt surface level scummy in all his games. The one thing that I find odd here is his

conviction

that 5-Off is town. This can't be explained by VI-ness or being a newbie. It is an odd read to have and I've seen Oka plan to buddy people in scum QT's so it is not at all unlikely for him to have decided to whiteknight 5-Off in an ill-thought-out ploy for towncred upon his flip. I also wouldn't rule out Oka wanting to protect his remaining buddy as he already lost one - especially if he is hoping a competent player would replace into that slot. Fonz, I get your point about his predecessor being townish so I'm going to read through that now.

I also really dislike the way he is interacting with me - I don't feel like I'm getting answers. It is the same generic stuff like "scumhunting" and "answering questions" and the townread on 5-Off is unnatural. It feels contrived. It feels like newbie-scum faking a read he can't explain.

~~~

It is eighteen hours to deadline and I haven't really figured out what I want to do. I don't want to lynch Nashville. I don't want to lynch Baboon. Of those I am sure. I can roll with lynching 5-Off because the slot is empty and in my POE pool but I don't feel overly confident in that flip. I could go with an Oka lynch as well but I'm not going to push for it as I haven't nailed down a read there and I want to think we can be the first town to figure out that he is town if he is and not mislynch him like the twenty other townies that mislynched him on sight in his past games.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Malakittens, are you online right now?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

MALAKITTENS!

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nvm, I'm about to head off but I want to know why you are voting Baboon Pride and what your thoughts are specifically on them (I think it was Titus that voted them first). Also curious as to why you didn't interact with Mara before voting there.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, ISO'd Csareo and read through the context. Pretty sure that slot is town now. I'd be quite surprised if he was scum with the way he went about using his role, and how his actions spiraled into Nati revealing that there was a mod error. I can't see scum motivations behind his actions at all.