Mini 1650: Greatest Idea Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #675 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:37 am

Post by copper223 »

@Dechs
You are the one that doesn't have a clue.

What you are saying is correct the moment the cards are delt, it is false when someone claims because as Kitty said you have an incentive to pick one combination over an other, obvious counter example not based on available cards:

- I discarded town joat including 1-shot cop

- I claim town 1-shot-cop

- I also claim I got my ability from town-1shot cop and my alignment from another unique town card.

If I claim this the moment my cards are delt before I choose, the probability of getting excatly these three cards follows the distribution you gave and is the same as any 3 unique roles. You would claim this probability stays the same for the rest of the game and this is false.

Once I claim this, the probability I said the truth about those 3 cards is very close to 0, not exactly 0 cause I could be a troll or an idiot, because I have a vested interest in choosing the discard over the claim as it is strictly better for my win condition if I am telling the truth about my alignment, so I am almost never telling the truth there.

What you are failing to do is update the probabilities once new information comes in, so in a nutshell how likely a claim is matters.
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Post Post #676 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:46 am

Post by Dechs Kaison »

copper223 wrote:What you are failing to do is update the probabilities once new information comes in, so in a nutshell how likely a claim is matters.


No, it doesn't because every set of three cards has the same probability. The only time new information comes in is when we have a counterclaim or when someone dies and we get a PM.

I think there's only one PGO card. If someone got lynched and was revealed to be a PGO, then we could know Kiwi was lying. Otherwise, his three claimed cards (PGO, Ascetic, Lover) is just as likely as any other three cards.

How likely a claim is doesn't matter because they're all equally likely when they're dealt and that's the moment in time that Kitty and I are discussing.
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Post Post #677 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:47 am

Post by Dechs Kaison »

We're talking past each other at this point and it doesn't really matter anyway. Stop it. We've got better things to be doing.
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Post Post #678 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:59 am

Post by copper223 »

Go learn about baysian updating before preaching about statistics, we have a vested interest in choosing one card over another because the powelevel of each is different and we want to win, which is something your initial distribution doesn't take into account so once you claim you are giving new information that update your initial probability, if you don't understand this it's your problem, end of discussion.
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Post Post #679 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:00 am

Post by Soviet Crocolisk »

Bonjour. Catching up.
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Post Post #680 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:10 am

Post by KittyCupCake »

Dechs Kaison wrote:The point I'm trying to drive across is that no matter what three cards someone claims to have, that claim is as unlikely as any other. It shouldn't matter that they're three negative utility roles or three vanillas.

KittyCupCake wrote:But, using your dice example, if I were tell someone I'd give them a diamond for every 6 they roll, and they turned around, rolled the dice secretly, turned back around and said, "I just rolled ten 6's, so hand over ten diamonds," well, I'd be
just a bit
skeptical. -Can you tell me that you
wouldn't
have doubts about that claim?

You didn't answer this question. Clearly, each dice turning up as a 6 is just as likely as it being any other number. So, would you smile and hand over the pile of diamonds in this situation, free from doubts about the roller's claim?
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Post Post #681 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:23 am

Post by Dechs Kaison »

copper223 wrote:Go learn about baysian updating before preaching about statistics, we have a vested interest in choosing one card over another because the powelevel of each is different and we want to win, which is something your initial distribution doesn't take into account so once you claim you are giving new information that update your initial probability, if you don't understand this it's your problem, end of discussion.


We're not talking about what cards we chose out of the set we were dealt. We are only talking about what was dealt. There is no Bayesian updating to consider. You don't understand that.
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Post Post #682 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:26 am

Post by Dechs Kaison »

Dechs Kaison wrote:
copper223 wrote:Go learn about baysian updating before preaching about statistics, we have a vested interest in choosing one card over another because the powelevel of each is different and we want to win, which is something your initial distribution doesn't take into account so once you claim you are giving new information that update your initial probability, if you don't understand this it's your problem, end of discussion.


We're not talking about what cards we chose out of the set we were dealt. We are only talking about what was dealt. There is no Bayesian updating to consider. You don't understand that.


Of course I wouldn't, but that's because you're using a flawed analogy.

If I claimed that I rolled a one with the first die, a six with the second, a five with the third and so on, with a specific result for each die, it is exactly as likely a situation as rolling all sixes.

I'm not saying you should believe his claim just because he said that's the cards he got. I'm saying you can't say he's lying because his combination is somehow more unlikely than any other combination.
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Post Post #683 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:28 am

Post by Dechs Kaison »

guille2015 wrote:What are your thoughts on Copper and Soren?


I can't tell you my exact thoughts on Copper because that would be unkind and breaking site rules, but he's as town as they come.

Soren I get a good town feeling from.
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Post Post #684 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:29 am

Post by Dechs Kaison »

Ugh, I quoted the wrong thing when I posted this.

Kitty, this is the response to your questions.

Of course I wouldn't, but that's because you're using a flawed analogy.

If I claimed that I rolled a one with the first die, a six with the second, a five with the third and so on, with a specific result for each die, it is exactly as likely a situation as rolling all sixes.

I'm not saying you should believe his claim just because he said that's the cards he got. I'm saying you can't say he's lying because his combination is somehow more unlikely than any other combination.
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Post Post #685 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:34 am

Post by copper223 »

Dechs Kaison wrote:In post 678, copper223 wrote:
Go learn about baysian updating before preaching about statistics, we have a vested interest in choosing one card over another because the powelevel of each is different and we want to win, which is something your initial distribution doesn't take into account so once you claim you are giving new information that update your initial probability, if you don't understand this it's your problem, end of discussion.


We're not talking about what cards we chose out of the set we were dealt. We are only talking about what was dealt. There is no Bayesian updating to consider. You don't understand that.

No we are not, we are talking about what cards were delt, knowing the the player claimed x and discarded y.
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Post Post #686 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:35 am

Post by Soren »

KittyCupCake wrote:The odds of a game using this setup having
both
a player with 3 vanilla cards
and
a player with 3 negative utility cards is about 1 in 500. So, now we're stretching plausibility with these claims. -It is still, technically,
possible
, of course, but only barely. I'd wager on at least one of these extraordinary claims being a lie.

prawneater wrote:This is the last game I was in with WW. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=60415

Iso him, you'll see he does the same tree stuff as he's doing here. He was town that game.

After looking through that, I see WW posted a full read list in that game, which we haven't seen here, despite that being requested. And WW seriously pushed at its scum reads in that game, to the point of near spamming the thread, whereas the pushes here have been much lighter. And while it did do the tree stuff in that game, that wasn't to the exclusion of content and interaction, like we've seen for the second half of this game so far.

So, if that game is what its typical town play looks like, although I am seeing the same curtness and brevity that was mentioned as being part of its style; here, the play looks much more like an attempt to just avoid content and interaction.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: WW

Keep in mind that playstyle can always change even if they remain the same alignment.
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Post Post #687 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:40 am

Post by Soren »

Soren wrote:Oh Dechs you are an interesting fellow. You say that you lie as town but tell the truth as scum. Now if we put this with the following question we get quite the interesting result

"Are you scum?"

If you are town you would lie, therefore you will answer yes.

If you are mafia you will tell the truth, therefore you will answer yes.

The answers will be the same regardless of alignment!

But wait!

How do know that this statement "I lie when I am town, and tell the truth when I am scum" from Dechs is the truth? If he is townie then that statement is false! If he is scum then that statement is true!

Ehh, maybe that statement shouldn't be applied so religiously to everything that Dechs says.
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Post Post #688 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:43 am

Post by Dechs Kaison »

copper223 wrote:No we are not, we are talking about what cards were delt, knowing the the player claimed x and discarded y.

So technically we're only talking about a choose two scenario because we know what the third is.

Ok, I think I finally see what you're saying. We know he discarded Town Ascetic, so we should assume that the card he chose a role from is "better" than Ascetic. That sounds logical and all, but I've already shown you a case where some guy deliberately chose the weaker card to keep.

Again, Kitty wasn't talking about that, though. Look at this quote carefully this time. I'll even bold the relevant part:

KittyCupCake wrote:The odds of a game using this setup
having both a player with 3 vanilla cards and a player with 3 negative utility cards
is about 1 in 500. So, now we're stretching plausibility with these claims. -It is still, technically, possible, of course, but only barely. I'd wager on at least one of these extraordinary claims being a lie.


Look, she's only talking about the three cards we were dealt. She's saying that part is implausible. She's not talking about what we chose and that making it unbelievable. She's only talking about what we were dealt. So, no, we're not talking about anything requiring Bayesian updating.
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Post Post #689 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:44 am

Post by Soren »

Dechs Kaison wrote:
copper223 wrote:Well, I have no idea what Dechs is about, I do know it's not helping town from where I am sitting, so that townread is gone.

How is what I'm doing not helping town?

I started by bringing my experience as scum in a similar setup to the table. I gave you guys
the successful scum strategy
I used then and kept us from going down that same path this game.

I'm discouraging people from being fooled by logical set ups and from mathematical fallacies. I'm trying to get people to focus on actual behaviors.

I'm focusing the pressure on WW and I'm trying to get him to take a stance and give us some content to actually analyze.

I'm trying to keep the day from rushing to a close before we've gotten solid stances from Diego and Ika (It'd be nice to get you guys' reads on the table before the day ends, regardless of whether we still want to lynch WW).

I tried breadcumbing my lack of role, but two people wouldn't leave it alone. To prevent it from being a drawn out, useless discussion, I just spelled it out. Yeah, disadvantage mine but what do I care? I'd rather we focus on the scum hunting. (Future note, guys, when someone's being cryptic like that, there's probably a reason, so try to figure it out)

I've provided
my entire meta
in response to someone asking about it. I'm a completely open book. I don't have anything to hide from you guys.

Which part of that is not helping town?


Because you're doing all that to make us think that you're town. There's a checklist of things to do in order to appear as town, and so long as you tick all/most of the boxes, you're sure enough town!

The way that you're able to pick out all the townie actions that you've done makes it seems as though it was planned beforehand, thus you have a clear idea of such "townie actions" and is able to present them.

That, or you're just very conscious of your actions. Which is meh.
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Post Post #690 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:47 am

Post by Soren »

Dechs Kaison wrote:
Soren wrote:"Hypergeometric" - Copper 2015

Lmao

To be fair, I was the one who brought that up. I linked the wiki page on the math behind a hypergeometric distribution.


Ah, now I feel bad. I was skim reading in the morning because I only had like 5 minutes and saw hypergeometric in copper's post and thought "what is this guy doing lmao".
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Post Post #691 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:52 am

Post by copper223 »

@Dechs
See, I am not as intellectually challenged as you implied, yes it is assumed players are rational individuals that play to their wincon, it's possible this assumption is violated but if you do without it than any scumtell you can give me I will be able to say is not scum indicative and we might as well randomly decide who to lynch, which kind of defeats the point of this game.
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Post Post #692 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:59 am

Post by KittyCupCake »

Dechs Kaison wrote:Of course I wouldn't, but that's because you're using a flawed analogy.

Fair enough. -Let's look at it this way then:

I invite kiwi and DK to play my roll 6's to win diamonds game. I hand each one die, and let them roll in secret. First, Kiwi claims a 6. Okay, that's unlikely, but so is any given roll, and there is a 17% chance that he's telling the truth, the same as if he'd said any number. Then, however, DK claims a 6. Now, there's a 97% chance that at least one is lying. Why? Not because rolling one number is more likely than rolling another, or because rolling one influences the outcome of the other, but because the nature of the game encourages lying and makes some claimed outcomes more advantageous than others.

So, yes, the odds matter here. In a game where there is choice between roles, and therefore ending up with power is by far more likely than not, having one player claim a forced vanilla and another claim a forced negative power is very, very unlikely to contain honesty all around.
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Post Post #693 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:02 am

Post by Soren »

copper223 wrote:The part where you claim VT for no good reason, crumbing your role was questionable to begin with and I see little advantage in that but claiming is downright providing negative utility for your faction if you are town, not happy about that you enter a semantics discussion about not having claimed town but just vanilla :roll:

The distribution behind our picks is not even close to hypergeometric, the incentive to pick certain combinations over others because we believe they help us win and even our alignment if we were allowed to chose the one we all personally like more means the probability of each combination being chosen is not the same and the likelyhood we are telling the truth can be guessed at when claiming based on known player preferences, what you wrote there is valid for the cards we were initially dealt but is of little relevance to the part that matters which is assessing claims.

I agree we should focus on scum hunting and you are not helping there either with these theory posts and all the self meta WIFOM you brought into the game, if you townread me because you got up at 5.15 I might vote you for giving a bogus townread but I certainly am not going to try and convince you I could be scum because your clock was 5 minutes off.


"The part where you claim VT for no good reason"

For what reason was it bad?

I understand that Dechs claimed his cards even though he was against this at the start. But this doesn't mean that he shouldn't claim his role at all right? Thus, he's been breadcrumbing to hint his role at us. And was forced to reveal himself because we were questioning as to how Dechs knew for a fact, 100% that not everyone has a power role. Or, it was meticulously planned by Dechs. What do you think copper?

I think that if dealt with only vanilla cards, the best one to go for is probably town. If you're mafia and you go for goon, that's pretty pointless because you need more power as mafia, in my opinion at least, especially in a game where everyone is able to pick what role they want, and it is almost undoubtedly that everyone will go for the stronger roles. Having just said this, Dechs is the type of player to put himself in the most disadvantageous situation as scum and therefore would go for vanilla mafia.

"but claiming is downright providing negative utility for your faction if you are town"

What negative utility? Because it causes more confusion than it solves?

"I agree we should focus on scum hunting and you are not helping there either with these theory posts and all the self meta WIFOM you brought into the game"

Yeah but it's day 1, where you won't have anything concrete to work with and day 1 is the longest day phase. Thus, I think it's okay to throw theory posts around and talk about self meta, it helps other players get a grasp of the game and get to know what kind of player we are.
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Post Post #694 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:07 am

Post by copper223 »

Soren, I am not going to tell you how scum can profit from it, suffice to say there is a reason why VT's don't mass claim D1 in the games you play.
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Post Post #695 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:07 am

Post by Soren »

copper223 wrote:I did not misread, you made or implied a logical leap from the special case where your alignment is forced by the cards you are dealt to general considerations about evaluating claims by saying we should ignore the odds behind a claim and just take it at face value.

It is unsettling to me you would waste all this time correcting Soren for what ones has to assume from your POV is a correct read just because you feel that read is bad on you, maybe you are awkward scum and try to appear truthfull to a fault is one point that came to mind, I could have also seen pigheaded town that refuses to issue any false statements but you already told us lying can be fine if it's pro town so that's not it, all in all I can't really figure your motives but it'certainly not helping my read of you.


Dechs is certainly a confusing fellow.
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Post Post #696 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:10 am

Post by Soren »

Dechs Kaison wrote:
copper223 wrote:I did not misread, you made or implied a logical leap from the special case where your alignment is forced by the cards you are dealt to general considerations about evaluating claims by saying we should ignore the odds behind a claim and just take it at face value.


No logical leap was made. Kitty made this statement:

KittyCupCake wrote:The odds of a game using this setup having both a player with 3 vanilla cards and a player with 3 negative utility cards is about 1 in 500. So, now we're stretching plausibility with these claims. -It is still, technically, possible, of course, but only barely. I'd wager on at least one of these extraordinary claims being a lie.


Kitty says that one of the claims has to be a lie simply because of the likelyhood of what is dealt.

I said you can't do that. Then I explained some math and theory to back that up

How did you misinterpret that?


Isn't the possibility of any possible combinations the same as all of them anyways?

The possibility of me getting my cards combination is the same possibility as Dechs getting his cards combination right?
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Post Post #697 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:12 am

Post by Soren »

Dechs Kaison wrote:Let me try and phrase this another way for you.

Kiwi's claim: Town PGO, Town Lover, Town Ascetic
My claim: Three Vanilla

Kitty's statement: "One of those has to be a lie because it's so unlikely that that combination got dealt."

My statement: "That's not at all the way odds works. You can't make that conclusion."


Yup this is right.
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Post Post #698 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:17 am

Post by Soren »

Dechs Kaison wrote:Missed this part the first time.

guille2015 wrote:Why would someone intentionally pick a survivor card?


Why would someone pick scum or town or alien or werewolf? Because they think it'll be fun. Remember I picked Alien over Mafia in my last GIM game. Why would I choose a faction with one nightkill over one with one nightkill every night? Because I thought it'd be more fun!

Survivors have an interesting mechanic in that they can side with town or mafia depending on how the game plays out and still win.

Hell, if I were given the option to go Survivor PGO, I might do it. I'd behave pretty much exactly as Kiwi did, too.


That depends on the player wouldn't it? Does kiwi match this kind of player to go for survivor over other roles?
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Post Post #699 (ISO) » Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:18 am

Post by Dechs Kaison »

No idea.

All I can say is that he's sure acting like someone more interested in personal survival and advancing the game state than an actual townie.
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