A Musical Mafia! (Game over)

[Cerberus v666]

OMG i'm so close to caught up but I'm running out of steam and starting to feel guilty here at work like I should go accomplish at least one thing I'm getting paid for today.......

Also, the hydra's all scare the shit out of me if they're scum. Those particular sets of players should never be allowed to hydra. Fucking wrecking balls for town.

With that said though, there's approximately a 96% chance that The Pied Pipers are town.

pedit: Spiffeh, I've made 3 posts now. You should definitely know my alignment at this point. ^^

[Mirhawk]

And mirhawk is cool for agreeing with me, and I like that vote too.

Aren't you worried that mirhawk might be whiteknighting you?

WTF is this.

[Cerberus v666]

Mirhawk is my second strongest scumread and I am willing to lynch him, I just feel more strongly about Skybird. I think her last post addressing me with "that's just how I play, sorry" was potentially promising? Not town, but I think if she's town she'll be able to set me right there.

Thanks for reminding me. When you made that post earlier(or maybe someone else did?) about Skybirds just dropping in and asking questions and not following up, I meant to grab that quote and just say that doing so hasn't been alignment indicative for her in my experience. It's a scummy behavior in my opinion, but it's a thing she does that I wish she would stop doing.

[Cerberus v666]

People taking about flavorclaims.
I see no reason to not do it. As I stated before, my flavor has nothing to do with my role so I kind of doubt it does for anyone else. I don't think it will gain us anything, but I don't think it will lose us anything either.

My flavor is related to my role. I recommend against.

[Axelrod]

I've finally caught most of the way up from the weekend.

Currently Townleaning hardest on Amihan. Even aside from the fact I think it's extremely unlikely that a scum counter-claims pistachi0n in that spot, I like her other stuff, especially the part where she admitted she wanted to get town-read so she wouldn't have to scum-hunt so hard. Those kind of things are just not natural for scum to say. Not that a strong scum player can't fake it, but it's much harder.

I also still like Beeboy. The most active player is always going to get a favorable nod, and I liked his early enthusiasm. I don't know about his "meta" argument against Friendless Seniors, but it at least felt like a genuine push, and not manufactured. I've also got a note that I agreed with #734, which is where Beeboy points out that he pulled back on his posting because people were complaining about it, but FS was still using him as an excuse to not play.

Kind of like Tammy for a lot of the same reasons, particularly early enthusiasm. I slogged through the whole back and forth with Wrong Lynch, and basically came out of that more agreeing with Tammy than Wrong. I don't have a "scum" read on The Wrong Lynch, but he's sort of fallen back to Neutral.

Other people I like okay to this point: podoboq, Sir Cakes, Mirhawk. Which maybe deserves a bigger post, but I don't see the Mirhawk hate. I mean, I understand, but I don't agree.

People in the middle: Pistachi0n, Pied Piper, Tic Tac, TrueOgre, Sakura Hana, Skybird. The Miller claim is kind of null to me. If pistachi0n had done it before most of the people in the game had already posted it would have been a stronger play, but the delayed entrance made it a much less risky proposition as a scum gambit. and then he was away for another day after, and by the time he came back Ami was no longer even voting for him. He hasn't done enough of anything else to give me a strong feeling about him. TicTac I thought had a strong entrance, but then the rest of his posting has been kind of meh. Sakura it's possible there's a language or cultural thing going on there but the whole exchange with him was just weird. The way he jumped on whether or not my random vote was serious did not make any sense at all. Skybird hasn't done much of anything. I kind of liked Ami's point about him, so he might be more a leaning scum than a total null.

I feel like Spiffeh is going to be impossible to read as someone who essentially posts nothing but 1-liners. I so cannot do that. I don't actively dislike anything he's said so far though.

Dramonic is like Spiffeh but with less content and worse opinions. He's definitely possible to be scum. The other people I like the least are (still) Friendless Seniors, and Davesaz. I also do not like the lurkers - Swordworth and SnarkytheSnowman. But that's almost as much a principle thing as anything they have actually posted.

I know some people asked me some questions in there and I'll get back to those in just a bit.

[Cerberus v666]

Nah we aren't lynching Mirhawk today.

Yay and I'm 100% caught up anyone can ask me anything and I'll have an informed opinion so you guys should totally ask me things!

Also, that took 3 hours? wtf? Man. I'm falling off, or else this game is especially wall filled. I can't believe I only read like 300 posts an hour. 5 a minute? more than 12 seconds each? Super lame show by me.

dramonic, when are you going to start playing? Are you happy having opinions that nobody cares about?

[Mirhawk]

He says he's worried about a scum counterclaim from Amihan, then us lynching pistachion. He says he doesn't know what we'd do after that, but I think it's obvious that you just lynch Amihan in that case. This is moot now, because Amihan claimed it was a gambit, but if she stuck to her Miller claim, and pistachion flipped Miller, the play seems obvious, and it's a 1for1 trade. That's good for town.

He suggests lynching pistacion, then suggests not lynching Amihan in retaliation if pistachion flips Miller. That could be protecting a scum partner (Amihan) or more likely, getting town cred for suggesting not to lynch someone he knows will flip town (Amihan), knowing that if we follow through with the pistachion lynch we would definitely lynch Amihan next. Again, these lines of play have changed since Amihan claimed it was a gambit, but that's where town was when he made that post.

I was going to address this later but this is a good post to respond to so;

The thing I was worried about from the beginning was that Ami was scum, and that lynching Pistachio wouldn't result in lynching her the next day.

It wouldn't be that hard for her to avoid the lynch honestly. 1 for 1's are bad scumplays, that argument alone might have saved her.

I decided after posting that there was no way find out if the CC was legit or not without flipping one or both of the people involved, so I voted for pistachio anyways.

I didn't think Ami was gambiting until several posts later when I noticed that she repeatedly avoided addressing weather or not she was a miller directly.

I don't like miller gambits as I have gotten stung by it before, so I immediately demanded clarification.

The game in question is http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=57822 in which Salamance led a town mislynch on me after claiming Miller.

I don't think I can make my reasons clearer than that, but ask away.

[Mirhawk]

My flavor is related to my role. I recommend against.

Alright.

I assumed that because mine wasn't that it was universal.

[Mirhawk]

That's what bothered me most about the Mirhawk post around the miller claim. It felt like he saw right through it and that he was fencesitting himself to go either way and kinda show that he knew Ami was lying.

If Mirhawk flips scum; I'd prob say that FS could potentially be a huge partner.

What exactly do you want to know regarding my Mirhawk push?

I DID know Ami was lying. I don't get why people keep saying I said that for townpoints. How on earth does knowing that make me town?

I DO expect that at some point someone is going to congratulate me on a good catch however.

If I was scum and I knew Ami was lying you should lynch should be Ami, not Seniors. As that's the only way I could have known she was lying about the miller claim.

[Spiffeh]

Then why were you voting for pistachion because of the counter claim if you knew Amihan was lying?

[Mirhawk]

The Wrong Lynch and Tammy, can you sum up the argument between you two? (...three?) Too many words.

Also, I think my Skybird case was pretty solid and it is being ignored for boring FS stuff.

Skybird's acting really weird.
You seem to be his top scumread but he hasn't even mentioned that miller business.

[Mirhawk]

Then why were you voting for pistachion because of the counter claim if you knew Amihan was lying?

Because I might have been wrong and I wanted her response first.

Is there some kind of reason my vote shouldn't have been there?

[Spiffeh]

Because YOU KNEW Amihan was lying lol

[Mirhawk]

Not really sure what you mean by the bolded?
Do you mean that you're not comfortable with Amihan's alignment if Pistach flips town?

No.
I meant that if we assume she was scum then we have to assume she is playing badly.
If we assume she is town then we are making assumptions about the game setup that we cant back up and have no way to confirm.

I don't like either of those choices.

[SirCakez]

How on earth would I know its fake?

What does a third party have to do with it?

How does this in any way invalidate my earlier statement?

I just said!

Third party wouldn't CC miller randomly.

What earlier statement?

[SirCakez]

K all caught up and I even read ALL of the long posts!!!

Town: {Amihan, Sakura Hana, Tammy, The Pied Piper, davesaz, podoboq, TWL}
Townlean: {beeboy, True Ogre, pistachi0n, SirCakez}
Null: {tictac, Friendless Seniors, dramonic, millar/Cerb}
Scumlean: {Mirhawk, Axelrod}
Scum: {Skybird, Swordsworth}

I think that's everyone

I plan on elaborating on this and answering any questions later but I have to go rn

VOTE: Skybird

When did Seniors move to null whoa

[Mirhawk]

@Spiff
Would you be happier with "I thought"?

@Cakes
Of course a third party wouldn't CC miller, it would be a terrible play. That's why I asked why you're bringing them into this.
I'm referring to post 857.

[Cerberus v666]

Mirhawk, I believe the line of reasoning you're questioning goes like this.

You are scum. You believe it is unlikely for there to be more than a single miller in a game(I think this is untrue, but I've been playing in games ran by crazy people often enough lately that I'm willing to accept a lot in terms of weird setup situations).

As scum, you see a miller claim, and then you see a counter claim. You know neither party claiming is a member of your team, and you believe it is unlikely for third party to CC a miller. Therefore, given your belief that it is unlikely for there to be two millers in the game, you deduce that the second claim must be a lie/gambit of some sort.

The logic is sound, once you make those assumptions I outlined in the first paragraph.

[SirCakez]

^ this, thanks Cerb.

[Cerberus v666]

Then why were you voting for pistachion because of the counter claim if you knew Amihan was lying?

Because I might have been wrong and I wanted her response first.

Is there some kind of reason my vote shouldn't have been there?

Because YOU KNEW Amihan was lying lol

This, btw, is more damning than cakez' point in my opinion. It does not make sense for you to join in on the wagon of pistachion, if there is in fact no counterclaim from your perspective.

I find myself doubting the analytical skills of anyone who looked at that sequence of events involving you and came out on the other side feeling as though you had done nothing weird.

[Mirhawk]

Sorry I've been a bit absent recently. Kinda haven't had much to add. Here's a tiny readslist.

TOWN

Amihan: Her gambit has been immensely useful for the town as a reaction test. If she's scum, she made a huge mistake.

Pistachion: I mean, he isn't counterclaimed. I'm not voting pistach unless something pretty serious happens.

beeboy: Too much loud nonsense to be scum. He drew

way

too much attention to himself.

Cakez: I think his perspective on things is very towny. He's open to contribute, engages in just about every conversaiton, and his opinions seem to align with mine for the most part.

SCUM

FriendlessSeniors: Not contributing in a meaningful way, and attacks Cakez for what is clearly bs.

dramonic: The only way dramonic seems to know how to contribute is by flinging shit at people then ducking away and seeing what stuck. He's scumreading people, but refuses to provide any logic as to why. I've asked him why he's scumreading Axelrod, but no response.

Mirhawk: Hate hate hate the response to Amihan's gambit.

Swordsworth: Hate his response about as much, but he has contributed less, so I'm willing to back away from him now on the expectation that there is more to come.


Assume everyone else is null at this point.

[Cerberus v666]

I don't think the third party thing is relevant though, cakez, now that I think about it. I put it in there because it's another alignment, etc, but the way third party would act in this situation doesn't make it any more or less likely that the claim was a lie. All it means is that once you know the claim is a lie, it is improbable that the slot making the cc is third party.

[Mirhawk]

@Cerb
What would I stand to gain from that scenario?

[Axelrod]

[quote="In post 570

So, I went to look closer at FS and, yeah, this is a truly horrendous series of posts.

I did not like this post at all. Seniors was already being pressured in many ways and to me, what you've done here is switch your trajectory and make a stong post justifying it. Too much.

In your own words and also in a couple of sentences, please sum up why Seniors is scum in this game.[/quote]
Okay, (1) I haven't said "Seniors is scum" and don't expect to say that anytime soon with any degree of certainty. This is just an early vote for me. I rarely, if ever, will make a pronouncement like that without a lot more information, which usually comes later in the game. For this reason, I get criticized for being waffly and/or not taking strong enough stances, but that's the way I am. It annoys me when other people declare someone to be scum with a degree of certainty they have no business having so early in the game.

But, assuming you're really asking "Why do you think Seniors is the best vote right now (beyond what you already said in the post where you voted for him)." I don't know what else to say. His first vote was essentially an OMGUS vote on a lurker. He then made one decent post (#190), and went right into the series of post for which I voted him. (#252 and sequence). Those posts were all just bad.

And since then, I haven't seen any reason to move the vote. He's complained that Beeboy's tunneling him, but not done anything to change his mind either. He got all sulky and said Beeboy sucked the "fun" out of the game for him, which I could easily see happening to a scum who's getting caught for what they think are garbage reasons.

I will say I think the "EP" head sounds better than the "Hippy" head? At least, as best I can tell, I think most of the posts I don't like seem to be coming from that one, but that could just be the one head not being as good at being scum as the one head just being more Townie. And even the EP head appears to have defaulted to a "Sheep" vote behind another player, so that's not particularly great either.

[Axelrod]

Sorry I messed up the quotes. That was TrueOgre's question to me from #570.