Do you think that the remaining scum are username+Porkens? Do you think that SpyreX is scum? Assuming the answer to both those questions is "no", can you see anything wrong with the plan described in 1511? If we lynch username and he flips scum, will you agree to redirect us to Quill tonight?
But, if Quill can only be scum with username or SpyreX (because there's a slight problem with my role PM in pairing us with him) then I can't say "no" to do I think SpyreX is scum.
Wish I'd been present to jump into this conversation about my motivations (haha, get it?) in real time, but it can't be helped. Let me know if I don't answer anything important.
First of all,
In post 1559, Kdub wrote:Based on play alone, I definitely feel worst about Quill. He's hedging like crazy after attacking me yesterday for the same thing, and his votes yesterday onto me and then PV were very conveniently timed in terms of getting momentum on the wagons. However, my reads have been fairly bad this game, and objective evidence suggests he is town.
I was all set to be "no way, man," and then I actually looked back at my posts. And fuck if they weren't exactly as hedging as kdub says they are. I don't have any excuse except that I'm legitimately unsure which of Morph and Awesome we should lynch tonight, and I'm now quite sorry for seeing that as exclusively a scumtell earlier in this game. I won't make the mistake of auto-reading uncertainty for scumminess again.
In post 1562, Kdub wrote:Wait, if awesome flipping town already implies Hadrian is confirmed town, why not have Quill motivate one of me/Porkens/Hadrian, Spy follow morph, and morph redirect Quill to SpyreX? If Spy dies, that means the three confirmed town in that case (me, Porkens, Hadrian) are alive tomorrow and we have the numbers to beat a morph/Quill scumteam. If Spy lives, he can say whether Quill's motivate reached him or not, as well as give his follow result. Based on that information, we can probably figure out who the two scum are among morph/Quill/Spy.
This plan looks good, but as I think some other people have said, it can't be followed if Awesome isn't actually town, because then we have to add at least Porkens and probably Hadrian back into the scumpool and they could just kill Spyrex overnight for an easy mislynch of yours truly.
I don't want to quote a specific post because it's more of a drawn-out conversation, but can someone explain to me what evidence there is for the "Morph is an Aesthetic" theory, because I'm not seeing it. That and the argument that there must be a scum roleblocker, because in my estimation that seems both unlikely with a jailkeep and my one-shot roleblock and unnecessary mathematically, as I've already thrown out a few ways my motivation of HighShroomish could have resulted in the extra block.
And Kdub, if you or Hadrian could, I'd love a quick summation of the revised plan for if Awesome flips scum, as I feel like it's spread out across a bunch of posts and I know I won't have time to do more than keep tabs on this thread via phone today. I feel like my role in it is to motivate either Porkens or Spyrex, which is fine because that was my plan anyway.
Quill - Why did you use your motivate night one on HighShroomish??? I just looked back at your day one reads and in not one nowhere not a little tiny place did I even see you remotely suggest you thought HighShroomish was town. Am I missing somewhere? Did my contrl-f not find the post where you
change your mind
on him?
If no, can you please explain for the class why you motivate someone *on a whim* you don't have a town read on?
In post 1579, Quill wrote:And Kdub, if you or Hadrian could, I'd love a quick summation of the revised plan for if Awesome flips scum, as I feel like it's spread out across a bunch of posts and I know I won't have time to do more than keep tabs on this thread via phone today. I feel like my role in it is to motivate either Porkens or Spyrex, which is fine because that was my plan anyway.
If awesome flips scum, it almost doesn't matter what the night actions are because it's pretty close to a guaranteed town win. I'd say make your own decisions for actions and just don't do anything obviously stupid.
SpyreX wrote:Ok someone with some druthers.
Lets play the pros/cons game weighting risk/reward. I'm spinning my wheels and its driving me nuts.
Risk/reward of what? Of lynching awesome vs. lynching someone else? The main advantage of lynching awesome is that his flip gives the most information, plus morph/Quill's roles are potentially more confirmable. The disadvantage is that we know awesome's role and we know it can't really mess with anything tonight, unlike morph (who's action is unconfirmed) or Quill (who could have more than one shot of roleblock if he is scum).
Lynch Awesome; 50% hit scum, 50% get 2 clears.
Lynch anyone (other than Hadrian) else, 50% hit scum, 25% simple misslynch, 25% chance to lose outright. Of course with this option we may get another report from Awesome, as well.
In post 1565, SpyreX wrote:The only thing is either there is a scum blocker or morph is Aesthetic.
Didn't we already discuss how morph can't be ascetic?
We aren't ascetic.
Still waiting to hear from Cabd on the D2 stuff with Spy/hiplop.
Surye had already posted once without the posting restriction, so we thought something was possibly up with our night action. We checked with the mod to find out if our action would be shown as targeting person Y if we redirected person X's actions to Y. The answer was no. So, we chose not to tip our hand regarding our full role.
And then after he made two more posts we knew it was for sure interfered with, so we chose to keep it in the bag
. That's L-1, so if we need to talk about anything else for overnight we should do it now, before Kdub or someone else hammers.
This post has really bothered us. Seemed hasty as fuck putting AUN at L-1 at that point.
Both our guts feel Quill is more likely scum than AUN, though AUN's role seems pretty powerful given the other investigative roles that have flipped. Town Detective. Tracker (with some sort of restriction). And the other claimed investigative role. Voyeur.
But, with jailkeeper and a hypothetically town 1 shot roleblock, and a redirector there was alot of room for possible interference.
So...maybe?
Anyway, our guts say lynch Quill.
We're in no position to push, lead, cajole. But, that's what we think.
However, we'll follow the plan if AUN is lynched instead.
I'd very much like Quill to respond to 1580 before we hammer. Why
did
he motivate HS on night 1, given that the last thing he had to say to HS on day 1 was "you haven't done much this game [...] your posts are self-contradictory even inside themselves"? And when before that he'd said "the more I'm reading the more I'm not as convinced of his towniness as everyone else seems to be. The logic of his posts is all over the place"? This doesn't seem to make any sense. Why motivate somebody you think is self-contradictory, illogical and lazy and who you doubt is town?
Not sure there's much point dragging things out beyond that though. My money's on Morph/Quill being scum and AUN being town, for the record. But I think that's still a town win if we stick to the plan.
when Cabd posted 457. Something to do with his gambit, but
I don't know what
.
He may have assumed
that Surye wouldn't have avoided the posting restriction at first because why bother and why take a step toward losing his vote for the day.
When ffery's talking about this decision, it's all "I suspect" and "if I had to guess" and "I don't know what Cabd was thinking". Now suddenly it's something that "we" -- Cabd and ffery -- both decided on after thinking about it and checking with the mod. This seems like a pretty massive discrepancy.
But also, the first answer
doesn't make any sense
. You said that your posting restriction only triggers after three violations. And you had
asked
Surye to post
just that message
in the thread. You asked everyone to do this. Why on earth would it surprise you that he did exactly as he was asked to do? The weak post restriction you claim to have given him was no reason not to. For all he knew, his post restriction came from somebody else, and you really were a lie detector or something of the sort. He could always decide to start obeying the post restriction stuff later, once your reasons for having everyone post the same message had gone. And that's exactly what you should have expected him to do.
If you wanted to test for a limited post restriction, ordering everyone to post a fixed message was exactly the worst thing to do.
You'd have been better off saying nothing at all. How could you not spot this?
I felt pretty bad when Cabd and I finally went over the sequence of events, because at the start of day 2 he told me he'd ask the mod about whether our action would show up as us targeting player Y, and then told me what the mod said, but I didn't see the discussion (it was a skype convo I think) and I didn't remember it however long afterwards that spyrex brought it up and kdub asked about it again.
I think I'm ready to hammer after Hadrian gets a response from Quill and is satisfied with whatever discussion comes out of that. I still think awesome has a decent chance of being scum, but I agree that if he's town, it's probably morph/Quill.
You do realize it would've been really dumb for me to post in-thread how Hadrian could win today if I was scum with them, right? Hadrian should already be as cleared as SpyreX.
If you really think I'm town, you should vote for morph. Or Quill.
In post 1592, Hadrian wrote:My money's on Morph/Quill being scum and AUN being town, for the record. But I think that's still a town win if we stick to the plan.
We are so close to agreement here. But I think this is going to be a town loss on the back of our eventual mislynch.
)
.