Mini 1802: Paint Mafia Sequel - Game Over!

[pieguyn]

I'm trying to figure out why my baseline for reads is so opposite basically the entire game.

RC is conftown, and I'm not worried about dwlee or bella in the slightest.

Katsuki's earlier posts directed to me (from 1137) are a huge towntell, because in addition to it perfectly explaining his behavior over the course of the game, I do not know him to be anywhere near the type of player who would feign that much disengagement from the game as scum. I've seen him lurk as scum but it's always strategic, it's never like _that_. the general tone of his posts today (I've never seen him be this openly dissatisfied with a game) and the fact he's decided he'd just sheep me/Nahdia at this point (which is something I believe he does at least semi-regularly) are both consistent with this, too.

Zulfy still looks town, and I'd be more interested in why people think he's scum since I don't remember finding any of the reason I've heard compelling and outside of that I have no understanding of why people think he's scum.

kraska's slot was where I originally wanted to lynch until her entrance. itle was posting stuff, but none of it came off as particularly compelling, and there were a few off notes that I don't like; the strongest point is that during the entire deadline scramble D1 between Aris/Katsuki he just kinda sat there and poked at dwlee without addressing Aris or Katsuki at all.

leaving {Nahdia, TBG, S_S}:

the only point for Nahdia being town is that she flipped blue. aside from that, I've seen no reason for town reading her besides "tone", which is a really awful reason for town reading someone, especially her;

I've mostly explained where I'm at with TBG already: I take issue with his recent posts, but aside from that I only have minor issues with him and the miller claim is slight evidence for him being town;

neither S_S or Spiffeh have done anything town, and I take issue with S_S's read progression on me. he started off thinking I was scum, and then I explained to him why D1 makes no sense with me as scum. he conceded I was correct about this, but apparently still thinks I'm scum for ... ???. you don't agree that the way someone led a scum lynch D1 makes them town, and that there is no reason that they would have done it as scum, and then continue saying they're scum anyway; that's not how reads work. he alluded to having other reason for scum reading me, but rather than falling back on it and trying to expand on and push me over that instead after the angle about bussing fell flat, he's spent all of his time focusing on coming up with some reason it somehow makes sense for me to bus there. it isn't a natural progression, it reads more like he decided he wanted to push me and isn't sure how he can go about it besides the bussing angle.

@dwlee/bella:

I'd like to hear where you two in particular think I'm going wrong on this list, since I feel relatively sure on both of you being town. actually now that I've wrote all of this out I could maybe see a {S_S, kraska} team making sense.

[pieguyn]

it is horrible, but he's confirmed town by virtue of being flipped blue D1 before scum would have had any chance to alter the flips. or do you think Cheetory would put the equivalent of a godfather in this game?

I don't know if I'd consider that unless it reaches LYLO.

[pieguyn]

tl;dr what's the order for night actions? wet/dry check first then mafia coloring town/themselves? or the other way round?

I don't have the slightest idea, unfortunately. someone who was in the last game should probably answer this.

in other news, dwlee, are you fucking _sure_ kraska would fake this?

[pieguyn]

this is the first game i play with dwlee lmao
why is his opinion on me supposed to hold any weight

it isn't a matter of him/you having experience with each other, it's a matter of his read disagreeing with mine.

[pieguyn]

Nahdia, in what universe does that vote make Katsuki scum?

am I just being completely awful at this game, again?

[pieguyn]

there is a reason, that being he just forgot about the fact we flipped RC's slot D1.

do you think this is something he'd be more likely to do as scum than town?

[pieguyn]

No, there's the 'I wouldn't do it because it's too flagrant to possibly come from scum!' defense.

I don't think him doing this is any more likely than him just legitimately forgetting it as town. I don't think it's overdefensive either, since RC's angle here actually is just flat-out awful and not thought through whatsoever.

[pieguyn]

vote: S_S

[pieguyn]

just so we're clear... your theory is that me/Katsuki painted myself blue, left him as red, and then... did nothing this game day to push the flip wagon on me through?

I'd have been more than capable of doing a hell of a lot more than I did here if I was invested in flipping myself. my position towards flipping myself today was "I don't really care, but other people seem to want it and Katsuki is town".

[pieguyn]

no, it's more like, you're being a fucking idiot and after Katsuki flips town people in this game will rightly ignore everything you're writing from now on.

[pieguyn]

im glad you dropped the "pie should go first and then we make inferences about katsuki's color flip"
im down for a katsuki lynch, tsq's posting pinged scum to me
VOTE: katsuki

how much have the game have you read?

have you made it to Katsuki's posts today?

[pieguyn]

you're so cute because you clearly don't have any conviction in Katsuki actually being scum here. you fear him flipping town and losing your credibility as a result.

tehe, this is fun~

[pieguyn]

In need of more paint suggestions!

Request: Nanami Chiaki blowing a kiss.

/looks away shyly

[pieguyn]

not enough to justify a strong townread, especially given that immediately afterward she used the towncred she got from the first lynch to push through another lynch onto town.

I find this fucking hilarious. your argument here basically amounts to "it's scummy that she lynched a town player", which... what?, and you're making this argument directly after conceding earlier that in no way would I have needed to bus in order to navigate this game as scum.

you're not genuinely attempting to read or sort me. you've decided that "she bussed Aris D1" would be a good somewhat-believable angle for feigning a read on me and are bending over backwards inventing reasons to justify it, rather than attempting to read my play.

[pieguyn]

Till ninas color flip so yes I saw a little of katsuki's posting

I'd highly recommend reading his posts from this game day/near the end of D2, and my assessment of it in 1240. that's a lot of where my town read on him comes from.

just so we're clear... your theory is that me/Katsuki painted myself blue, left him as red, and then... did nothing this game day to push the flip wagon on me through?

I'd have been more than capable of doing a hell of a lot more than I did here if I was invested in flipping myself. my position towards flipping myself today was "I don't really care, but other people seem to want it and Katsuki is town".

Did you forget that you were trying to sell a lynch on my slot before I replaced in?

I don't understand what point you're attempting to make here. rephrase?

[pieguyn]

after seeing 1302, I'm lynching S_S today, full stop.

I think I'm just going to wait for bella and Katsuki to arrive. I really hope I don't have to actually break that down and explain why a lot of what he wrote there is disingenuous.

@kraska, I'll respond to your post in full later (at work rn) but a quick point, Aris was pretty much completely fucked by the time he caught up at the very end of D1, so it absolutely would make sense for him to put a partner down as scum with the intent of distancing. it didn't actually do anything to put itle in danger, it was just words at that point.

[pieguyn]

um, is that directed to me?

in what universe would I care about RC's read on you?

[pieguyn]

AKA, nothing.

all you're doing here - both with this, and in 1302 - is generating noise aimed to distract, so I don't see any point in continuing this conversation

[pieguyn]

bella, you had S_S as scum before, right? are you open to lynching him today?

[pieguyn]

VOTE: katsuki
dhbdn

please don't do this.

why?

[pieguyn]

Pie is a very strong pick for it actually, given that she's trying to make this a pissing contest that I think she knows that she doesn't win.

OK...

listen up, fucktard

if you read my posts, you'd notice that I've been providing quite a bit of reasoning for why Katsuki is town and why S_S is scum. notice how when I state a read on someone, I can actually back it up with quotes, examples, etc. and argue my point. when you first came into this game, even, I specifically TOLD YOU that I would want to discuss reads with you if you bothered to elaborate on anything you were writing.

what you've done?

- you came here and insisted I was scum and that Katsuki was scum
- you didn't elaborate on any of these reads, because your reads are so fucking amazing that no one else has any right to question them
- you didn't respond to my point about why Katsuki/me makes literally no sense
- you're basically just demanding that everyone lick your balls and unconditionally take your reads as gospel because you're confirmed town
- you STRAIGHT UP SAID your goal was come in here and do the above
- you're doing it again right at this second claiming "lelel I know S_S is town, if you don't follow my amazing reads I get to force you to do X tomorrow"

and you're claiming that I'M turning this into a "pissing content"?

just stop playing this game, because you're fucking delusional

[pieguyn]

idk

...

S_S is a much, much better lynch than Katsuki. what do you think of what I wrote about him in 1240 or 1287?

I can break down even more than I already have why his read progression on me is horrible and doesn't make any sense, but the long and short of it is he doesn't genuinely believe in his read.

[pieguyn]

bleh

what does "bleh" mean?

in what universe do you think it makes any amount of sense for someone to think that it's somehow a point against me that I mislynched ONE town player?

[pieguyn]

i think S_S is incoherent town. there's nothing about what you've pointed out that screams scum motivation to me. scum like to have a strong justification for their pushes as much as town does; not having one can really go either way in my mind and iirc i had some other reason for calling him town which i can't really remember but it was probably good.

he first attempted to push me as scum because he thought it'd be a viable read and he thought he could get a lot out of the "OMG, pie is some master manipulator who bussed Ari D1 and is fooling you all" nonsense he came up with. after I broke that down in as much detail as I could and made it obvious that this made no sense, he couldn't push it anymore, but still continued believing I was scum for "other reasons". he outright conceded that the point about me bussing didn't make sense. from a town POV, if you have two reasons for someone being scum and the first one is wrong, what would you be inclined to do? you'd say something along the lines of "eh, this isn't correct, but I still have reservations about her because X and Y".

what he's done? "eh, this isn't correct" and then he just sits kinda sorta sits there inventing reasons to throw shade at me. if you read his posts, there's no attempt at so much as

explaining

what these "other reasons" for scum reading me were, and he has had _the entire fucking game day_ to do so. outside of the bussing angle, he straight up hasn't attempted to engage me at all.

why not? because he can't fabricate a viable point, and doesn't want to look like obvscum making it obvious his read on me holds no water. so instead, he sits there and nitpicks semantics (which is all he was doing in 1302... notice how he conveniently side-stepped me asking him how it was somehow a point that I mislynched someone D2) to make it look like he has a point.

the part where he pushed me for lynching a town player is actually just nonsense, and it falls into territory where it is coming from scum since it's not something a town player would think makes sense, ever; see: the above about inventing reasons to throw shade at me. this is not the only time he has done this, but it's the most egregious point. and about Katsuki's RC push, it would be perfectly well-reasoned if it weren't for the sole fact that RC is confirmed town. RC's play here is complete shit and makes absolutely no sense. Katsuki's interpretation is the correct interpretation, and I probably will avoid RC after this game ends because I feel pretty shit about mafia in general and I can't deal with players like him anymore.

so tl;dr of this is his read on me actually does have a fair amount of scum motivation, and doesn't make sense from a town POV, especially when you consider that I'm mostly a consensus town read (or at least not a consensus scum read) outside of RC. he would not be kind-of sort-of passively pushing this read, not thinking it's important to explain his reasons, etc., if he legitimately thought I was scum. he would if he thought it would be viable for him to fake a "scum read" on me, though.

[pieguyn]

i'm super disconnected from this game and haven't read a lot of these walls

you should at least read the posts I linked (and the post directly above this one).

it really isn't that difficult to understand.

[pieguyn]

first of all pie, i read the stuff you wrote on katsuki in that breakdown post, and i clicked on the linked post and funnily enough two posts below katsuki's, you refutd your own townread on him by saying he played an active part in lala's lynch...so...him asking "why the turnound" is as good a reason as any to townread him or anyone else

first off, you're missing a lot of the context behind my read on Katsuki and how it developed the way I did. I first took issue with his posts this game day because I thought his disengagement was feigned, yes. then he made 1140, which basically killed off whatever thought I had of his disengagement being feigned entirely and made it obvious it was legitimate. you might say that it was faked, but I think that his tone around the end of D2/start of D3 points to it being legitimate, and I can empathize with his angle here. lala was doing jack shit to try and actually sort the game

and it isn't a general read, a lot of it is meta specific to Katsuki. to my knowledge, he is not someone who would be so openly dissatisfied with a game as scum. he has games where he lurks as scum, but it's always deliberate; it's never him being legitimately disconnected or dissatisfied. he's much better at scum than he is as town and actually puts effort into trying to win when he's scum, and tends to get disconnected from games when he's town. this is why the obvious lack of effort here is such a huge town tell, and it's why my progression on him is what it is: I thought he was trying to feign disengagement, which would make him scum, but then he came in and posted that and made it blatantly obvious it was legit.

and you might say, "how can he get away with playing so differently from his town game when he's scum, it'd be obvious?", but in fact, Katsuki has an established history of believing that people who play the same way as scum and town don't know how to play scum correctly, and has actually been able to back this up in the majority of his scum games... that isn't a concern for him.

i dont give a crap about katsuki's rc vote and if it's supposed to make me reconsider a lynch on him, it's not working. i can recognize when people are being too ridiculous to be scum, but this is different bc that was a vanity vote.

I do not think the vote on RC itself is a town tell. the point I was making there was in response to people saying it was somehow a scum tell, which it obviously isn't; as you wrote about it here, it's null. I do think it looks town because I can strongly empathize with the thought process behind it, though. I probably would have had the exact same thought process if I was in his position and *if* I had somehow forgot about RC being confirmed town. that's how completely stupid the way RC is playing this game is.

but that's mostly a separate point. the key point there is that even if you don't think the vote is town, most of the people in this game are incorrect to call it something more likely to come from scum.

also why are you pulling a curtain over his predecessor's posts? tsq's posts were mostly nothing more than overblown reactions(similar to katsuki's) and misrepresentation

I'm not and in fact I took issue with TSQ's posts back when he first made them for the same reason. at this point, though, I feel it's more likely this is something TSQ just does all the time, especially since I have now had a game with him where he played in basically that exact way as town. even without the meta, it wasn't such a strong point that I would feel confident in a lynch over it. now, the town tell on Katsuki is strong enough to where I'm not really taking issue with it anymore. before the town tell today, I was mostly ambivalent on Katsuki's slot and probably would have been open to lynching it.

but anyway, let's consider this alternative. katsuki's iso is vacuous mostly, his lurking makes him difficult to read and he's not doing anything useful to town. im pretty sure i will keep second guessing myself the entire game if he stays alive, and that i will be unable to move forward with my reads until i see his slot's flip. it's a good lynch regardless

if you feel this way about Katsuki, he's probably town. see: the point I made in the first paragraph where he actually efforts as scum and rarely gets legitimately disengaged from games.

as for your point that Katsuki flipping scum would make the color flip moot, wouldn't this be the case if we lynch any scum who doesn't flip blue? I think it's a good point in general, but not a good one for specifically lynching Katsuki, and moreover, *if* we happen to flip scum who *is* blue, all blue flips from here on out can be trusted. meanwhile a red scumflip doesn't tell us anything; it could be that scum chose not to paint themselves blue for whatever reason hoping to save it for later, or the last scum could repaint themselves a different color (to directly answer your question, yes I expect it's possible).

if there's anything else you're looking for an answer to, let me know. I might have missed something.

[pieguyn]

VOTE: s_s

grazie~

[pieguyn]

I think you don't have the slightest clue what a "pissing contest" is.

[pieguyn]

I think the world is ending. never has Katsuki posted so many things in one game that have synced so well with my thoughts, nor do I think he's manipulating me since there is no way he could have known I was thinking this.

yes, this is me declaring that I specifically think Nahdia looks really bad on the Katsuki wagon.

anyway

unvote:

for TTH, a lot of where I stand on S_S/Katsuki (and reads-wise in general) is in my posts this game day, so I'm really hoping once you get to there you'll be able to at least actually discuss it with me unlike what's been going on ever since RC came into the game. I don't think Katsuki's recent play looks like anything he would do as scum and I find the wagon on him really questionable.

also Katsuki, you actually said it after Touhou 3 ended. I tend not to forget those kinds of things.

[pieguyn]

Is there a compelling reason why scum would've painted Katsuki?

TSQ's slot was (and still is) a consensus scum read, or at least no one was town reading it. I don't really know why people today have been finding it unlikely.

[pieguyn]

I'm through page 43 and if my two choices are really Something_Smart and Katsuki, I would definitely go with Katsuki.

keep reading.

[pieguyn]

I'm trying to parse this town read and I feel like you're saying, "Katsuki isn't scum because if he were he would fit a different behavior pattern." Is that correct?

for the most part, yes. if you want I can link the scum games of his I've seen so you can get more of a feel for what I'm trying to say here?

also, about S_S, specifically, can you look at 1338 and tell me from what POV you see his play this game day making more sense? I really don't see why he'd be this focused on this whole bussing theory he's pushing (things like "she might have bussed Aris D1", "she used the town cred from Aris D1 to lead a mislynch D2", in general everything he's wrote about me recently) when he supposedly had other reasoning for scum reading me and has had one and a half weeks to do something (read: anything at all. he seems to have completely gave up pushing it after he vaguely alluded to it in his reads list all the way back D2) about it; the only way I see it making sense is if he thought he could fabricate a scum read on me, but then had no idea how to go about pushing it after I made it obvious the angle about bussing wouldn't work and can't come up with any viable material based on my actual play he could push me with.

TBG is someone who I have huge conflicting feelings on. I hated some of his posts D1 and his interactions with lala D2 and RC this game day, but aside from that I haven't taken issue with any of his posts and I think he'd look really good on a S_S scum flip. I don't think I agree the miller claim would make this scum sided, though, since more likely than not it'd just claim immediately; it's just one player who can't be reliably color flipped no matter what. or am I missing your point?

[pieguyn]

also I'd be interested in hearing if you think S_S has made a single reasonable point in his interactions with people about me. the vast majority of what he's written recently has been overly semantic, and read more like he's nitpicking on minor things in order to look like he has a point than actually doing anything - which maybe he's just really illogical, but he's doing things like asking me random questions about irrelevant things or getting in an argument over how TBG's reason for town reading me not being "enough to warrant a strong town read", instead of just trying to explain to people why I'm scum. the focus here is just all wrong and off.

[pieguyn]

I meant the point about the miller claim not making sense with the setup. I'm more than open to other reason for him being scum.

[pieguyn]

his vote on Aris looking like a bus is something that I thought myself a while back when I went to look at it again, actually. it read as "I'll stall out to see whether this gains traction", and then him joining after dwlee voted Aris almost immediately afterward. I think I forgot to mention it, though.

[pieguyn]

Going after you as a busser as opposed to one of the weaker links of the Ari wagon (e.g. Bella) seems like a suboptimal scum play. Going for a Katsuki color flip and then not pushing that lynch once it came up red doesn't seem like a play scum would make either.

mm, I'll wait for you to look at the rest of what I wrote before making that huge of a point over this but S_S seems pretty clearly lined up to vote on the Katsuki wagon if his push on me doesn't go anywhere. I don't think there's much of a reason he'd hard push the Katsuki lynch when in most gamestates Katsuki would have been the de facto lynch regardless of whether he put any effort into it or not. the only reason it wound up like it is now is because I stalled out the Katsuki lynch really hard and then RC replaced out.

I agree that him pushing me would be an unusual scum play, but that's exactly why that kind of thing works. "push the most town player and get people to think what you're doing makes no sense as scum" isn't an unheard of strategy, and I actually don't put something like that past him.

[pieguyn]

I mean, that's the point: he went off and pushed me after the Katsuki colorflip, yeah, but it realistically likely wouldn't have mattered. his vote for all practical purposes was going to Katsuki at some point or another.

sorry if that was unclear, I'm pretty exhausted rn.

[pieguyn]

I could be wrong, but I _really_ do not think he or anyone else would have expected me to be as successful at stalling the Katsuki lynch as I was.

I think the plan was always "Katsuki will get lynched after he flips red, and that's that".

[pieguyn]

I was going to take the time today to make a case on pie, but with RC's replace out it seems the odds are one to zero against her being lynched in the near future.
I can still make the case if you guys (primarily TTH) want, but I'd rather look again at the TBG/Katsuki/Zulfy slots if my work would be pointless anyway.

here's a question. don't go off about anything irrelevant, just answer the question directly.

why have you not attempted to explain or talk about any of your reasoning for scum reading me? I don't mean things like telling people (TBG) their town reads on me are wrong, I mean things like actually quoting my posts and saying "this is more likely to come from scum because X".

[pieguyn]

and because I didn't see it as necessary yet.

under what circumstances would you have seen it as necessary?

[pieguyn]

Once some major wagons began to develop, aka, yesterday.
Hence post 1411.

with the gamestate the way it was, how were you expecting to get a wagon on me going without making the case first, or otherwise putting serious effort into convincing a bunch of people of me being scum?

you clearly intended to lynch me, but without doing something to that effect, it would have been impossible to even get a wagon on me past like 2 votes (you and RC). I think that's a lot of my issue here since this is the major reason I don't understand how you approached this.

[pieguyn]

well, shit.

let me think.

@TTH:

for the most part, yes. if you want I can link the scum games of his I've seen so you can get more of a feel for what I'm trying to say here?

you really don't want me to do this? I think if you look at how he tends to play when he's scum, it's pretty obvious that it doesn't look the same as here.

[pieguyn]

Pie, I think TBG is a great place for us to meet in the middle. It sounds like you're picking up on the same things I am and you haven't given any reason to think he's town.

I have my doubts about Katsuki so I'll hold off lynching there (but if TBG really is scum I expect Kat to go tomorrow).

was thinking the same.

vote: TBG

about Katsuki, these are the scum games of his I was either in or followed to some extent:

Touhou UPick 3 this was my direct experience with Katsuki as scum. it had a lot of trolling, etc., but he clearly was taking the game seriously, attempting to make town-sounding points and look town, was significantly more active than he is here, and so forth.
Anything UPick this is actually where I started seriously thinking about Katsuki and whether it made sense for him to be scum here, since I wasn't in this, but I came across it looking for Katsuki scum games a while back. here he lurked a lot, but he makes it obvious it was strategic both in postgame and due to his demeanor in general - he wasn't posting but when he did post it was very focused and goal-driven.

there are also games like Through the Looking Glass, which while that happened all the way back in 2014 it at least makes it completely obvious that Katsuki enjoys playing scum and knows what to do as scum.

then these are the most recent games when I've seen him as town, FG's game excluded:

Pick your Power 6 was disconnected the majority of the game, didn't do anything, didn't push any reads.
Touhou UPick 4 basically just trolled all game, didn't push any reads.
Mod error he got wagoned D1 and spent most of the game lashing out at people voting him for stupid reasons. he was really loud about his reads, but he did this because he actually had reads he felt strongly about, and most of them were correct.

from my experience with him, which I think these games highlight, he's a player who as town doesn't feel any need to play the game seriously until and unless he has something he actually wants to accomplish.

what he's doing here? he's disconnected, not enjoying the game, and most of his major pushes came as a result of what he thought were people pushing him in disingenuous ways (lala D2 and RC/Nahdia this game day). outside of that, he's not pushing any reads and has mostly just latched onto me in terms of the direction he wants to take the game. it doesn't seem goal-driven at all, and his disengagement doesn't seem feigned. in particular I empathize with how he felt about lala, since my impression of lala's play was "it's really wrong and I don't have the slightest clue why she would be playing like this if she was town". with this in mind, his D3 opening read to me (both tonally and in terms of content) like he was just lost and had no idea what to even do with the game anymore.

I thought the way he blew up at me after I pushed him also looked town since I really didn't see an ulterior motive behind it; if you try to follow his mindset, though, then it makes sense. here he was not knowing what he should do and the person he's mostly just following is pushing him. I first thought it lacked all the fire I usually see from him when he's town, but after reading into his posts more I think it makes more sense that way just due to how apathetic he's been.

I am going to feel really fucking embarrassed if I posted this and he winds up being scum, especially since he has a play style that in theory would allow him to decide one game to go "hehueuhe I'll just be completely useless all game and people will read me as town for it!!11", but I don't *really* think that's what's going on here (his reads seem fairly reasonable to me) and I don't know why he would pick this game where I'm likely the only one who's had enough games with him to be able to see something like that, if he even would have expected it from me.

so all things considered, I think it's pretty likely Katsuki is town here.

[pieguyn]

That said, I'm not sold. How much effort someone puts into a game or how much someone enjoys a game depends a lot more on just alignment they drew. It's possible that he had a lot more synergy with his scumteams in the games you linked or he simply meshed with the player lists more.

that strikes me as *really* unlikely, just given what I've seen of Katsuki and how much he prides himself on his scum game. going off memory I'm pretty sure I have never seen this happen to Katsuki as scum, at all, even outside of the games I linked.

but, w/e, I'm obviously not getting anywhere. I'm stepping away now.

[pieguyn]

this is so stupid, because I feel really really sure on this, but I have no idea how I can explain it in a way that people will understand and agree with. then, at the same time I've had reads like the IAI read from the last game where I'm just completely fucking wrong and insane and just shouldn't be playing the game.

this game makes me want to cry sometimes.

[pieguyn]

can you explain why you town read Nahdia?

if I'm right about Katsuki and he flips town and I'm dead and a blue scum hasn't flipped, then I can say with confidence I don't want her anywhere near LYLO.

[pieguyn]

She has interactions with Aristophanes, specifically too many of them, that make me think they're not scumbuddies.

The blue flip doesn't hurt.

her interactions with Aris are actually something that I keep coming back to and questioning. on her side, I didn't see anything of note up until 575, which was the only time she actually talked about or implied any kind of read on Aris and then she never followed through on it. on Aris' side, there's 342, which I don't know if he would do this or not but that's actually exactly the kind of thing I like to do to my scum partners since the vast majority of people auto-assume scum won't hard town read each other.

can you point me to what I'm missing here?

[pieguyn]

bella is in my "do not touch until endgame" pile along with dwlee. I'd like to know why people are actually scum reading her since I don't take issue with her posts, at all.

[pieguyn]

I still feel mostly sure all the remaining scum are in {TBG, S_S, Nahdia}, btw. kraska is an outside shot, but I doubt it.

I swear to god, if you all lynch Katsuki after I die and I'm right and he flips town (obviously void if he flips scum), and I'm right on who the scum are, there will be fucking words. I feel really sure he's town here, but WTF do I know anyway.

[pieguyn]

When do you suppose you'll be dying Pie?

I'm assuming tomorrow night at the latest.

[pieguyn]

my ultra strong immovable town read on bella was because I thought she was a doc who saved me N1. -.- with that out of the water, I want to read her again. if anyone wants to pitch me a case on bella, now would be the time to do so.

I actually *really* want a Nahdia lynch. she has done literally nothing town besides flipping blue. I hate her treatment of the Katsuki wagon, and after thinking about it, I still continue to hate how she handled Aris D1. I can think of reasons to town read everyone in this game except for her (pending bella). I want people to explain based on her PLAY why they think she's town, and if Katsuki is lynched and flips town, I want a mass agreement that she goes next.

kraska needs to stop with that "autolynch" nonsense from the end of yesterday.

I would consider a massclaim today as it's the day before MYLO. I don't really have any strong feelings on who we should flip.

[pieguyn]

I am not allowing a Katsuki lynch unless Nahdia comes next on a Katsuki townflip.

I cannot reiterate this enough. I don't have *any* strong idea of who is scum at this point besides her.

[pieguyn]

{dwlee, Zulfy, Katsuki} are my strong town reads, but after that I don't have much of an idea.

[pieguyn]

well, Wingback has basically mind-melded with where I'm currently at.

now I get to figure out if he's going for this on purpose, or if it's an artifact of the fact that we approach games in practically the exact same way. /paranoia

[pieguyn]

When I flip town, do consider just straight up sheeping my reads. I'll post a final list before I die.

*if* we lynch you and you flip town, then I'm completely off and I will be happy to do this; I will also do my best to ensure everyone else holds themselves to this.

I still need to think, though. my issue with lynching you at the current point in time is that if we run into a scum who happens to flip blue, you're confirmed town.

[pieguyn]

I actually really like the idea of "lynch Nahdia, if she's town follow her reads until endgame". I feel mostly sure that either I'm horribly wrong on Katsuki and he's just scum, or I'm right and he is just obviously town and Nahdia is making a push that she should know better than to make. this 1. resolves this before MYLO, and 2. *if* I'm wrong on Nahdia it prevents me from having to make a game-deciding choice after being wrong 3 consecutive times if I'm still alive tomorrow, since I don't think I'd be able to handle that after that god-forsaken Waltz game.

[pieguyn]

^I'm going to spam that until it gets addressed, btw. I think the likelihood is ~95% that {Nahdia, Katsuki} contains exactly one scum, and in a scenario like this, it's just flat-out theoretically wrong to leave that until XYLO, you resolve it before. it's the exact same as a claim/CC situation, which is the entire reason massclaiming the day before XYLO, and not at XYLO, is usually correct . . .

I'm open to arguments for my premise of {Katsuki, Nahdia} containing exactly one scum being wrong, but I really don't think it is. also, if we do this, we aim for a blue flip today, since a Nahdia blue-scum flip would confirm that and all subsequent blue flips as town.

[pieguyn]

vote: S_S

I like this as a backup strat in case I'm correct on Nahdia, but wrong on S_S.

[pieguyn]

actually, I don't even know. it might be better to try and solidify town reads, since I doubt someone like e.g. dwlee or Wingback would have been interfered with on N3, the logic here being Nahdia -> blue N1, Katsuki -> red N2.

[pieguyn]

my issue with a {Nahdia, S_S} team is that they should have killed me on N3, no questions. you can claim WIFOM, but not when if they leave me alive they lose a member, guaranteed. the only way I see that being possible is if they were explicitly relying on me thinking this and thinking {Nahdia, S_S} was impossible because of it.

for this reason, I think Nahdia + someone else is more likely, with the end goal of leaving me alive to lead an incorrect lynch on S_S and then killing me.

[pieguyn]

vote: dwlee

this is a solidifying-town-reads vote, since I severely doubt he was flipped N3 and if I assume Nahdia scum I would start second-guessing the hell out of my read on him.

[pieguyn]

It's a katsuki lynch today. S_s is fine with voting katsuki i reckon? Pie and wing will have to come along

pay the fuck attention.

dwlee, if I'm not mistaken, was agreeing with the plan proposed by Nahdia/me to lynch Nahdia today and then sheep her reads iff she flipped town. under this plan, it's a Nahdia lynch today. you don't have the numbers to go against it unless you convince someone.

or at least if this isn't what he was doing, I need to have a serious talk with him

you clearly haven't read, or just don't give a shit about, any of my posts this game day, both in terms of what I've been discussing and in terms of the reasoning I (or Wingback) have provided for Nahdia being scum. to be blunt, you need to quit fucking around, actually pay attention, and be a productive member of this team.

[pieguyn]

Pie, what order do you think we should go?

I'll get back to you on this, I would need to think about it a bit more.

[pieguyn]

I read and im not convinced
Don't wanna do another compromise lynch like tbg
Already said my piece on katsuki and TBG on day 3 so i have nothing new to contribute

I frankly don't care whether you're convinced or not. you're not going to get your way today if things continue going like they have been. I have enough numbers to make it happen without you, and you can enjoy sitting around and helping scum all game.

just if you make it to XYLO (you will if the game doesn't end before then), you better realize that if you act on your own free will, you're walking directly into what scum is expecting you to do.

[pieguyn]

like, you are aware that under this plan, *if* Nahdia is town, you get your Katsuki lynch anyway? just it's tomorrow, not today.

you legitimately have not read, or if you have you haven't fully understood, any of my posts today.

[pieguyn]

my issue with a {Nahdia, S_S} team is that they should have killed me on N3, no questions. you can claim WIFOM, but not when if they leave me alive they lose a member, guaranteed. the only way I see that being possible is if they were explicitly relying on me thinking this and thinking {Nahdia, S_S} was impossible because of it.

for this reason, I think Nahdia + someone else is more likely, with the end goal of leaving me alive to lead an incorrect lynch on S_S and then killing me.

more on this: in a {Nahdia, someone else} gamestate, they leave me alive another night; I mislynch S_S D4; they kill me N4, and someone (kraska is most obvious and if town would be considered pretty much a guaranteed Katsuki vote, which is what makes it so compelling, but it could be literally anyone) votes Katsuki in XYLO for the win.

I think a Nahdia scum flip legitimately breaks the game at this point.

[pieguyn]

A katsuki nahdia team is a possibility I haven't crossed. If we go for nahdia first and she flips scum, im sure you'll spend the remainder of the game whitenighting katsuki

this proves to me you are extremely out of touch with everything that has happened in this game.

there isn't any way Nahdia spends the entire game shitting on Katsuki in the way that she has been in a {Nahdia, Katsuki} gamestate. even discounting the fact there's no reason for her to do it, Nahdia's treatment of Katsuki, if Nahdia is scum, reads strongly like scum sitting around pushing a mislynch they know will go through but not pushing it too hard for fear of blowing their cover, not like scum genuinely taking issue with their partner's play.

[pieguyn]

add to that the fact I know that Nahdia is a bus-averse player (and if she is scum she has demonstrated this _in this game_ with Aris D1).

[pieguyn]

you seriously are so fucking lost if you think my reason for it not being {Nahdia, Katsuki} is "meta". it is entirely based on Nahdia's treatment of Katsuki in this game. the meta is just a bonus that makes me go from feeling 95% sure to near-100%; it functions exactly the same way without any use of meta. you haven't even bothered to comment on how off Nahdia's approach to the Katsuki wagon is.

what you're pushing here is fucking laughable.

[pieguyn]

I'm not "obstinate", you just have no compelling reason behind anything you're pushing and I'm shutting it down.

[pieguyn]

On the other hand, killing someone that suspects both of them over a conftown is dangerous territory as that means TTH would rethink her reads. The other reason I don't want to dismiss Smart as town is that despite TTH defending him early on, she was later questioning that read (Post 1429) and thought she was wrong about my slot being scum (Post 1478). That makes sense as a subtler kill on someone just about to catch them as opposed to you who were blatantly pushing him and being pushed by him. Killing you means he has to make up a new scumread. TTH's qualifier that she doesn't want Smart to be "today's" lynch is another point where I think Smart could have realized that he couldn't count on TTH continuing to defend him in the following days after she sees that she was wrong on TBG. It's one of those subtle word-choice indicators I tend to look for when I'm scum to figure out who's just about to turn around on me or my teammates.

I considered this, and this is the major reason I could think of for {Nahdia, S_S} killing TTH over me; my general opinion is that while it could happen, at that point it's probably a good idea to look for other possibilities too.

I was thinking about this possibility. I don't think Katsuki or Zulfy are partnered with Nahdia which leaves just Smart, dwlee, or kraska as a potential partner.

I agree it's probably not Katsuki or Zulfy. from there, that leaves {S_S, dwlee, kraska, you}. I think you as scum probably could have played this by defending her and taking one of the essentially free mislynches available, but I'm not completely discounting it in the same way I am Katsuki or Zulfy since I think the bus route is also plausible if you're feeling adventurous. this is why I want to flip someone in this group who I don't think scum would have altered overnight; being able to eliminate another person would be potentially game-breaking.

massclaim might also help in this regard, I'm not sure.

[pieguyn]

as much as I hate to say it, I'm at the point where I don't see myself lynching outside of Nahdia's slot unless CO somehow does something really really town.

I'm not really waiting on anything else, I'm just waiting for people to show up and either help me flip dwlee or suggest someone else.

[pieguyn]

are we lynching kat

no.

weren't you agreeing with me before on a Nahdia lynch? if not, have you read my recent posts in full?

[pieguyn]

have you read anything I've posted at all this game day?

[pieguyn]

that probably is the worst idea I have ever heard. for what reason, based on her PLAY and not her flipping blue, do you think she's town?

me and Wingback have both been making arguments for why her play is scummy, and I really don't have any other strong leads.

[pieguyn]

also, make sure you've read and agree with what I've been saying in e.g. 1552~1553.

[pieguyn]

:^)

you can kindly shove it with the holier-than-thou attitude, by the way. the fact still stands that you have no leg to stand on and you're sitting there pushing a horrible read without thinking critically about it.

[pieguyn]

*shrugs* I understand people should stick to their guns in forum mafia, that's not what I take issue with at all. It's just the way you engage with those who happen not to agree with you is kinda offputting...theres no give and take, only shutting down

your idea of "give and take" is offputting, is how town loses games, and is a lot of the reason I'm seriously in need of a mafia break right now.

town wins games by thinking critically, considering every possibility, reasoning things out, and identifying people who are objectively likely to be scum - not by being complacent about their reads because "they're my reads" or getting caught up in the flow of the game. I think that's a part of why I tend to get people following me: when people have doubts about what I'm saying, I can actually show my work, think through their argument, and either explain why they're wrong if they're wrong, or acknowledge they have a point if they're right.

you haven't done this, you just sit there and the closest you've come to actually addressing anything I've written was claiming it was "meta" when it clearly is not, never mind the fact it's really stupid for scum to manipulate their meta when there's a total of at most one person (me) who would pick up on it and even then they would have no way of knowing *I'd* even pick up on it. even *if* Katsuki is somehow scum here, I would not say that you had any good or compelling reason for scum read him; I would say that you largely picked up on null tells and it was correct by coincidence.

[pieguyn]

yes I think nahdia is town on play

can you walk me through this in more depth? I think this is the first time you've mentioned her since like D2.

can you walk me through why you think Katsuki is scum?

[pieguyn]

actually when I gut town read nahdia in her first game on site she was scum so maybe I'm wrong lol

(((dwlee)))

[pieguyn]

fact of the matter is, if you're unsure about Nahdia's alignment, then from a pure numbers POV, it'll be better for you to join us on Nahdia. we already have

me, Wingback, Katsuki, Zulfy (I think?)

if no one defects, the Nahdia lynch is basically guaranteed, and we just need one person on the Katsuki side to join us. from there, even if she ends up being town, Katsuki is guaranteed to be the next lynch, and so it's a very safe play even if you think Katsuki is the scum in the pair (this line of reasoning is why I highlighted my posts around 1552).

if Katsuki is lynched first and is *town*, on the other hand, it's basically a loss since by that point there won't be enough numbers for a Nahdia lynch and I have no idea what people like kraska will do.

p-edit: it's a hug~

[pieguyn]

yeah, I'm totally the one insisting my reads are better than other people's, all you're doing is insisting people trust your "intuition" and claiming your way of reading people is better than everyone else's

[pieguyn]

And we're going to lynch nahdia who will likely flip town. Look at nahdia-ranger interactions, that looks like genuine town/town.

lol

lol

lol

lol

I won't even bother.

[pieguyn]

because Katsuki is town, TBG was much more likely scum, and lynching someone who's town for "information" is a fucking horrible idea?

why am I even responding to you.

[pieguyn]

ftr, if I had even the slightest reason to believe you care about anything anyone else is writing in this game, I would make the point that TSQ always does that stupid sort of forced shit in pretty much every game.

the exact same thing pinged me in another game I was in with him about two months ago - the *exact* same thing in terms of "forced posts", i.e. specious argumentation, really out-of-place overreactions, all of it - and he was just town. it isn't a scum tell, it's just how he always is.

[pieguyn]

Zulfy, you won't get anywhere arguing with her, most of what she's been said this game has been nonsense.

do you have any objection to flip dwlee -> lynch Nahdia?

[pieguyn]

Yes good night

have you read what I've been writing about her this game day?

another thing is, even with S_S, we pretty much need to lynch Nahdia today. if we let her get to tomorrow, then there will never be enough numbers to lynch her since I'll be nightkilled, Katsuki will have been lynched, and kraska will pretty much ensure no actual scum lynch ever goes through.

she's probably going to come in here and make 100 posts about how I'm being "obstinate" or what-the-fuck-ever, but both of us know it's true.

[pieguyn]

welcome to kraska logic, she just pushes whoever as scum and doesn't give a fuck about playing the game correctly or actually attempting to think critically about her reads. why do you think I need to go this far and wide to play around her?

Nahdia absolutely needs to be lynched today because I do not want her running around in MYLO if Katsuki flips town.

[pieguyn]

pie: why do you think Katsuki was painted N2?

TSQ-slot/Katsuki was essentially a consensus scum read. painting them red would make perfect sense.

[pieguyn]

to lay things out in more depth for people like Zulfy who might not have followed all of my posts so far:

I think S_S and Nahdia is the most likely scum team. however, there are two imminent issues with an S_S lynch: 1. I also feel about 95% sure {Katsuki, Nahdia} contains exactly one scum, and in a situation like that you resolve it the day *before* XYLO, not at XYLO, and 2. if we lynch S_S first, I die overnight and Nahdia's slot will likely get away straight to endgame, especially with people like kraska in the game who are not only easily manipulable but who are also going to turn around and straight up lynch one of the people who is scum reading her.

my scum read on Nahdia is a lot stronger than my scum read on S_S, and I think there are some other possibilities outside of S_S being the second scum; namely I think Nahdia's partner is somewhere in {S_S, dwlee, Wingback}, with Wingback being more of an outside shot than anything. for this reason, and because there has been no talk at all about the idea of flipping dwlee and so he would not have been flipped last night (and couldn't have been flipped N1/N2 because those went to Nahdia and Katsuki) - despite thinking S_S is more likely scum - it's more prudent to flip dwlee here, for the end goal of solidifying town reads. the end result then becomes that if dwlee flips blue, it makes {Nahdia, S_S} very close to a lock unless something stupid is going on or at the least *if* S_S is town we have a lot more information about who the last scum is, and if he flips red, then that's a lot more useful than something like S_S flipping red where there'd be a lot of WIFOM regarding whether scum altered his color or not.

lynching Katsuki first out of this pair doesn't work for the same reason lynching S_S first doesn't work: Nahdia's slot will get straight to endgame if we take that route. and if Nahdia somehow flips *town*, then I feel a lot better about the rest of yall's chances tomorrow despite not trusting people like kraska for shit, since the Katsuki lynch will be guaranteed with really no way for him to argue his way out of it.

ergo, flip dwlee -> lynch Nahdia is the percentage play and the play that is by far the most difficult for scum to play around

if Nahdia and Katsuki are both town then lolol, we all just collectively suck so I don't mind as much.

[pieguyn]

As for Nahdia being painted, I mean its possible but it's a headache to think about, so I find it easier for me to assume it didnt happen. May re evaluate later.

who do you think the second scum is?

1664 sums up most of what I've posted this game day, if you don't feel like reading all of it - can you look at it and tell me if you take issue with it?

[pieguyn]

. . . so you're saying you're actively choosing to ignore me?

[pieguyn]

if that's what this has come to, let me know and I'll just replace out of the game. I have no idea how anything I've done or said to you this game would warrant that kind of reaction, but people obviously hate playing with me, so.

[pieguyn]

that's fine. sorry I took your post that way, I'm really on edge rn.

[pieguyn]

I'm OK with flipping myself if people want it, though I'm like 95% I'm dead tonight.

I'm pretty sure you're misunderstanding that? scum wouldn't be aware of Ranger visiting dwlee until the end of N2, not while N2 is still going, so they wouldn't be able to kill her on that same night. the thing that would be relevant would be who Ranger targeted N1 (which was S_S's slot).

[pieguyn]

kraska isn't scum, she's just a really bad player who thinks she's the end-all-be-all at the game.

Nahdia -> you -> kraska doesn't work if you both are town, we only have 1 extra mislynch. I feel mostly sure Nahdia-slot is scum, though.

[pieguyn]

In that case I'm okay with either I guess. Leaning towards you tho, pie.

/stares directly into your eyes

[pieguyn]

ya you're not town.

[pieguyn]

in other news, feck I didn't realize deadline was in 16 hours.

everyone flip dwlee plz. or if you really think there's some universe where I'm not dead tonight flip me, but I'm pretty sure that will be largely useless.

[pieguyn]

Did we run out of time?
I will be furious if we did.

no there's still like 8 hours.

[pieguyn]

ITT kraska still not reading the game. then she wonders why the way she's acting is giving me an aneurysm...

[pieguyn]

you're saying that you've read the entire game and seen that I'm the "wrecking ball" of the game, so to speak, but in your reads list you don't even list me as a town read. why not?

also someone hammer dwlee, there's less than 3 hours.

[pieguyn]

what.

vote: CO

[pieguyn]

the question here is, which among the following do we believe:

1. the scum team is {Nahdia, S_S or someone else who isn't dwlee}. they flipped Nahdia N1, Katsuki N2, and N3, of all the town players in the game, decided on flipping dwlee N3 despite him being pretty much widely considered town and no one talking about flipping him whatsoever? I don't mean this rhetorically, I'm wondering if there's something I'm missing here.

2. the scum team is {Nahdia, dwlee}. they flipped Nahdia N1, Katsuki N2, and N3 gave dwlee a different non-red color that wasn't blue?

3. Nahdia-slot isn't on the scum team and it's {Katsuki, someone}, and they just didn't bother painting Katsuki blue for some reason? in that case we have no idea except at some point they flipped dwlee, and we should consider who they figured would be a more valuable use for the blue paint than Katsuki, which I have trouble seeing since he was a consensus scum read and pretty much everyone wanted to flip him.

no one bum rush shit, I need to think about this more and probably won't be back until later.

[pieguyn]

Yes ure missing the fact that neither of them pushed for a dwlee color flip nor could they have seriously anticipated dwlee of all people being colour flipped on day 3

ya, that's my point exactly. for that reason, my initial guess is that a {Nahdia, someone who isn't dwlee} team who painted dwlee N3 seems really unlikely.

the point of the exercise is that I want to be sure of this, i.e. there's no reason I'm just not thinking of they might have done it.

[pieguyn]

the question here is, which among the following do we believe:

1. the scum team is {Nahdia, S_S or someone else who isn't dwlee}. they flipped Nahdia N1, Katsuki N2, and N3, of all the town players in the game, decided on flipping dwlee N3 despite him being pretty much widely considered town and no one talking about flipping him whatsoever? I don't mean this rhetorically, I'm wondering if there's something I'm missing here.

2. the scum team is {Nahdia, dwlee}. they flipped Nahdia N1, Katsuki N2, and N3 gave dwlee a different non-red color that wasn't blue?

3. Nahdia-slot isn't on the scum team and it's {Katsuki, someone}, and they just didn't bother painting Katsuki blue for some reason? in that case we have no idea except at some point they flipped dwlee, and we should consider who they figured would be a more valuable use for the blue paint than Katsuki, which I have trouble seeing since he was a consensus scum read and pretty much everyone wanted to flip him.

no one bum rush shit, I need to think about this more and probably won't be back until later.

4. Nahdia and Katsuki are, god-forbid, T/T, scum flipped Katsuki N1 or N2 and are obfuscating one of their members by coloring dwlee and someone else purple? (either just not using the blue shot for some reason or they don't have one) I really don't know how likely this is since I think Nahdia is highly likely scum, but I can't say it's impossible.

[pieguyn]

Just a passing thought but...
With a town blue painter, it would also make sense for mafia not to have any blue shots

I considered this might be the case at one point but..... Nahdia's play.

I don't think TBG's role would preclude scum having blue shots? it's not a blue painter, it's essentially a doctor + paint bodyguard; I can't think of any reason blue paint would be incompatible with that.

[pieguyn]

We know that Dwlee was painted probably because he didn't claim it, so it makes it way more unlikely for Katsuki to be painted...

have you read literally anything that has been posted this game day?

[pieguyn]

Actually I did not...

read. and I highly recommend reading D3 at the _least_, too.

Katsuki is pretty obviously not scum here, or at the very least not the correct lynch today. if you want to positively contribute, you should familiarize yourself with what's actually been happening in this game, not just sit around and poke Katsuki for "fake" posts (which btw the post you quoted is exactly what he just does in general, alignment-regardless).

[pieguyn]

Your role is: Town Painter's Tape and you're coloured Blue.
-----------------------------------------
You are aligned with the town and will win when all threats to town have been eliminated.
Every night you may target a player to cover them. If they would be killed that night, they will be protected. If they are targeted to have their colour changed, then your colour will be changed in their place.

I think you're probably misunderstanding.

[pieguyn]

I don't really see what the purpose of a massclaim right at this second is; I severely doubt there's more than at most two PRs left in this setup, and claiming everything right at this point doesn't accomplish anything besides nullifying all of them. if you have a role and you think it'd be advantageous for you to claim then you can probably go ahead and claim, or if you have a role that might have info depending on things but want a massclaim before outing this info a massclaim might be OK (just straight yes/no, don't allude in any way to what the info might be).

[pieguyn]

I'm pretty sure the color mechanic is entirely scum controlled. if a town player somehow managed to mess with dwlee's color and somehow decided that would be a good idea for some bizarre reason, then it absolutely needs to be claimed right the fuck now.

[pieguyn]

I haven't checked the interactions properly, but the first thing of note is that {Nahdia, dwlee} perfectly explains why I was left alive over TTH, too. TTH might have been town reading both, but in addition to that making her an excellent low-info kill and the fact there is no guarantee she wouldn't have reevaluated it, it is absolutely no secret at all that once I get a town read on someone (which I've had on dwlee all game), I pretty much give them my full trust and never really look back and question it until it's too late. I have no intention of claiming this as a point that makes dwlee more likely scum, just that the TTH kill does make sense with that as the team.

also, *if* it's {Nahdia, dwlee}, then holy fuck that 11th hour dwlee color wagon might actually have outright saved the game. the thought of what might have happened otherwise scares me. o.o

[pieguyn]

what is "saved"

[pieguyn]

And also the way nahdia was protesting ari lynch when it was pretty much a lost cause

you are very rapidly making me want to yell at you again. there is no reason she would not have done that as an Aris partner, and in fact, that's actually a lot of the reason I'm scum reading her (the other half being that her push on Katsuki D3/D4 was completely horrible, and a general lack of anything town at all).

at first glance, I disagree that the beeboy/Nahdia interactions don't make sense as scum/scum, too. they poked at each other over how Nahdia was reading Ranger, but that's all it was - there was no real push there, it was just them poking at each other. Nahdia didn't even state a firm read on beeboy in her 144, she actively deferred it and then started town reading him . . .

[pieguyn]

I am not really sure about Dwlee, but I think he is probably town-aligned because why would a scum-aligned player paint themselves purple when they could paint themselves green? It seems like pointless WIFOM when there is a low chance that someone is painted.

.....................................................

you *are* aware blue is the town color, correct? green and purple are equivalent in terms of what color means in this game.

[pieguyn]

in the last game, scum only had one shot of blue paint, and there is no way they would be given more blue paint in this iteration of the setup. they would not be able to paint both Nahdia and dwlee blue. hence, the theory that in a {Nahdia, dwlee} gamestate, their goal was to paint over dwlee's red color using a different non-blue color.

[pieguyn]

I could easily see {Nahdia, dwlee} planning that starting from N3 they'd just paint a bunch of people purple in order to obfuscate the location of the last scum color-wise. in that scenario, holy fuck me flipping dwlee earlier was just one of the most serendipitously unfortunate things for them imaginable.

[pieguyn]

Dwlee's last posts looking like caught scum trolling and Chaos completely ignoring the result does make me think that that's the team though.

uh, ya, this.

why am I still the only vote on CO?

[pieguyn]

Uh there was continuation to this post idk what happened. It didn't look like dwlee was getting flipped any time soon but the leading color flip wagons on day 3 (katsuki and pie) both would have continued being Wagoned even after a blue flip. They didn't have to waste red paint on either

the scum team was obviously planning on mislynching Katsuki, and on N2 it would have been trivial from their POV to preempt a Katsuki flip D3. it would have been theoretically possible to lynch him despite a blue flip, but realistically it probably would have went in similar vein to Nahdia D2: people still kinda stay suspicious of him but don't lynch him right at that point. the plan was to probably have him flip red, and then from there he gets lynched and that's all there is to it (and it would have worked if it weren't for me hard derailing the lynch).

[pieguyn]

and as I've been saying, dwlee was nowhere near being flipped at all, for the entire duration of this game, until I heel face turned and flipped him today. I don't think there is any way any scum team would have preempted being him flipped, ever.

[pieguyn]

kraska still isn't scum, she's just a really, really, really, really bad player.

lynching dwlee over CO is really bad and it isn't theoretically correct due to there being one scum in CO/Katsuki. moreover, there are a few things I need to look at before being sure of whether it's dwlee or not.

[pieguyn]

dwlee is not "confirmed scum", or even more likely scum, really, if CO is town. if CO is town then we're in case 3 from my 1716, and scum could have done just about anything with the flips.

that's a large part of why lynching dwlee first is really fucking stupid, and it's also the reason it's stupid that people are claiming this is "lining up lynches". if CO flips town, we don't do anything with dwlee tomorrow, we reevaluate from there (with the additional knowledge Katsuki is very likely scum).

[pieguyn]

dwlee, take your vote off yourself and vote Nahdia-slot/CO with me.

I'm not really sure why you're so resigned to being the lynch today. I'm aware that the way kraska is treating you is really stupid, but it's literally just her who is seriously invested in lynching you (and Zulfy who probably can go either way), and she's been acting like this all game. I think you could potentially be scum, yes, but I'm not going near you today and I need to do some reading to confirm/deny it first.

[pieguyn]

don't vote kraska, either.

her play is horrible, yes. however, that's all it is. it isn't scum, it's just horrible.

Nahdia, on the other hand, was scummy as shit, and CO's posts are doing absolutely nothing to make me second guess this read.

[pieguyn]

like this kraska wagon is actually horrible, and if you vote on it, the only thing I'll be left with is that you *are* just scum and that CO and you are just doing this as a last-ditch effort to get out of what happened this game day. I would lynch CO based on his posts about kraska alone; combined with the fact that it's Nahdia's slot?

[pieguyn]

. . . wow

[pieguyn]

If ChaosOmega is scum-aligned like I suspect, for us to have targeted the person who was painted every day without fail is kind of unreasonable.

you're actually just objectively wrong about this. it isn't any more or less likely than any other possibility. you might think it looks unreasonable, but try thinking about arguments like (for instance - this is just to draw a parallel to highlight why what you're saying is poorly reasoned) "the scum team couldn't have flipped Katsuki N2 because we chose to color flip him D3 and we correctly identified the other two people who were flipped". it's incorrect, and obviously so.

with no a priori information - i.e. if you looked at this game in the pregame phase and tried to find the probability of us flipping the altered player every night - the probability would be low, but this is not the same case as that. don't get caught up in logic like this, just try to read play and see what that leads to.

to go through the rest of what you wrote point-by-point:

- Katsuki, if town, would be the obvious person to flip if scum's goal was to frame a town player, since on N2 literally everyone in the game had some form of scum read on him. he almost got lynched on D1, there was a lot of focus on him, and in general it seemed fairly obvious that people would find it a good idea to attempt to flip him.

- Nahdia and Katsuki aren't scum together, specifically *because* Nahdia's push on Katsuki comes off as really really strained and forced. it isn't the type of push you would make on a partner, it's the type of convenient push you would make on an easy target who has done a bunch of things that have looked bad hoping that people will accept it without thinking too hard about it. none of the points she made held any water or showed any sort of critical thinking - it wasn't her taking legitimate issue with a buddy's play, it was her seeing "oo red flip" or "he pushed RC who flipped blue on D1" and thinking it would be a convenient angle of attack. Wingback has gone in-depth previously on how her Zulfy push from D1 falls into the same category as this.

- I could explain why I'm bitter over this game (and in mafia in general), but it would involve me going on a long-winded rant about why I thoroughly hate how the site meta has shifted recently and find it no fun to play anymore. among the list of things I hate is when people think it's acceptable not to read long or detailed posts just because "not concise enough" ...

if you want me to go into any more detail on any of this, ask, but I will kill you if you just say something like "lel I disagree" without explaining why and then try to blame it on me for not going into enough detail, as I've seen basically everyone do recently.

[pieguyn]

- I could explain why I'm bitter over this game (and in mafia in general), but it would involve me going on a long-winded rant about why I thoroughly hate how the site meta has shifted recently and find it no fun to play anymore. among the list of things I hate is when people think it's acceptable not to read long or detailed posts just because "not concise enough" ...

Site meta's been shit for 2 years now.

Which is why this was going to be my last game of mafia in a long while until FG dragged me into Alice.

(((Katsuki)))

also,

MOD: I'm V/LA until Monday evening. Cabd/penguin wedding hype~

[pieguyn]

iro, I need you to address my 1842.

if you're going to say "not concise", then just don't, because that is actually a very concise post. it is really obvious you're on the wrong track with Nahdia/Katsuki being a team, the reasoning there is not difficult to understand, and if you're going to just ignore it because the reasoning is so detailed I need four entire sentences to explain it, then fucking rofl

[pieguyn]

OK, you obviously didn't even read it.

I am so fucking sick of this game.

[pieguyn]

if the day ends while I'm gone still: if CO flips scum, I think lynching both of {iro, dwlee} wins. I legitimately cannot put up with trying to argue and work things out with people in this game any longer, and iro if town after CO flip will basically replace kraska in the "won't ever lynch actual scum" slot.

do not look back, do not second guess it, {iro, dwlee}. even if it *is* someone else, I am slowly coming to realize that the game will be impossible to win if that is the case, so I am fucking done.

if CO flips town, this is obviously void.

[pieguyn]

my overwhelming amount of prayer for this to end in a town win was answered!

there was much cheering in the dead PT over the course of the last 3 or so hours. also, dwlee, I love you.

[pieguyn]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p8307143

[pieguyn]

thanks for modding, Cheetory. this game looked outright impossible to mod with that many replacements needed, and you did an amazing job keeping up with all of it. I'd play another one of your games in a heartbeat (and if you're discouraged because of N1 I would always be willing to co-mod for you if that's something that you think would reduce the chance of something similar happening in another game).