Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:41 am
It's page 13 and Frogsterking is now officially overdue on his SSS.
Based on what?In post 297, fwogcarf wrote:ofmercia/kitty not w/w
I'm not completely sure if it was. From my perspective it made sense though, I'm a bit trigger-happy with making that kind of play to save my hide if constantly hounded by someone all day (generally as scum). Even if it wasn't, ofmercia is still the scummiest player to me currently, both off "vibe" and their strange early push.In post 299, TistDaniel wrote:Auto: Looks like you're saying in 277 that I'm recommending seeking breadcrumbs and rationalizing gutreads, when that's the exact opposite of what I recommended in 273. Have you just given up on reading the thread?
Kitty: I agree that ofmercia seemed scummy in response to the Progo controversy. But ofmercia is right that they said the RNG stuff after I unvoted. Sure, Progo was scumreading them, but that's not a whole lot of pressure.
Let's look at Progo's activity:
Two posts at the top of page 5: 100, 102. We hear nothing at all from hum after that until 205, more than a hundred posts and four pages later. He drops his reads in 216, and then, up until ofmercia's RNG comment, never made another post. Progo had put very nearly the absolute minimum pressure on ofmercia that he absolutely could. Plus, I had just removed my vote from ofmercia, which I originally placed in 116 on page 5.
ofmercia has had a vote on them ever since Norwegian's vote in 93 on page 4. In other words, ofmercia has had at least one vote against them, sometimes two, for eight of the twelve pages of this game. They had been scumread by one of our least active players three pages earlier, and never heard from the guy since then.
I mean yeah, I guess ofmercia had a little pressure on them, but not more than they've had on them for most of this game. Actually, it feels like significantly less, because my vote which had ridden for six pages had just moved.
Are you really sure the "RNG" comment was intended to deflect pressure?
I wasn't talking to you, but was making a reference to what you said. Have you just given up on reading the thread?In post 299, TistDaniel wrote:Auto: Looks like you're saying in 277 that I'm recommending seeking breadcrumbs and rationalizing gutreads, when that's the exact opposite of what I recommended in 273. Have you just given up on reading the thread?
I read this as you ascribing those views to me. I realize you're not addressing me, but you're presenting it as if these are views which I agree with.In post 277, AutoDefenestrator wrote:I'll be sure to artificially boost my visual contribution to town by hunting breadcrumbs and making up vacuous rationalizations for gutreads from now on (Daniel, 2022), sir.
It seems like you're suggesting that I'm promoting things that I literally said were bad ideas just four posts earlier.In post 273, TistDaniel wrote:"Mastin's Golden Rules" suggests coming up with logic to justify your gut reactions. Again, as a psych student, I think that's the exact opposite of what you should do.
[...]
Going beyond guides and into what I see in use, I feel like a lot of people majorly overvalue "slips". The idea is that scum somehow can't keep straight in their head that seven of the nine players in the game are not in on their secret, and so they keep saying scummy things without thinking about it. The idea seems really silly to me.
Sorry can’t post as much but, can you point out what and why you think this?In post 253, KittyTacky wrote:Ofmercia is new. Honestly their posts ping me more as a newbie scum than a scummy newbie, if that makes sense.In post 247, TistDaniel wrote: I think I've seen the most scummy behavior from ofmercia, but I think true scum would make more of an effort to hide scummy behavior. Not quite ready to townread them yet, but they are at least one of the more active players.
Pars of this post reads similarly to the player Sommus (Who was scum) in the last newbie game being Information instead of Analysis, such as the early paragraphs and the words per post.In post 148, TistDaniel wrote:A lot of people have been saying that discussing town strategy is not alignment indicative, but I'm also the most town-read player (18, 59, 60, 72, 128, 137) when most of what I've done in this game is discuss town strategy. Not quite sure how to interpret that. Anyway, I decided to read back over responses to my discussion of town strategy.
Dunnstral came in (14) immediately after my first post (13), answering a lot of my questions. He didn't really go deep into advice for town strategy. He also didn't agree with my ideas about town power fakeclaiming. I asked (15) if cop should claim the instant they detect scum, or wait to find the second scum. (I personally was thinking that cop should claim immediately after detecting scum, since that's vitally important information for town to have, and there's a 50% chance there will be a doctor to protect cop.) Dunnstral never actually answered this question instead talking (17) about how cop shouldn't claim when they *haven't* found any scum yet. Could just have skimmed over my post and misunderstood.
NorwegianboyEE came in (16) to reply to Dunnstral's answers (14) to my questions (13). His advice is good. He townreads me after (18). I asked about an unlikely hypothetical situation with doctor (19). I think it's best to claim in that circumstance. NorwegianboyEE disagrees with me (20), but his perspective is a normal perspective for people to have. NAI. He responds (21) to another unlikely situation about cop that I asked about (19). His answer seems reasonable to me. Elaborates on views (22, 23), and points out (24) that cop doesn't need to claim after a guilty to make an elimination happen, so claim should be a last resort. He elaborates on this further (26). He didn't have to point this out, and I don't think anyone would have noticed if he hadn't, and it's good advice that hadn't occurred to me, and probably hadn't occurred to other newbie town. I think this *is* alignment-indicative, and it indicates town.
KittyTacky came in (28) to elaborate on what NorwegianboyEE said (26), then disagreed with my fakeclaim ideas (29). This is not an unusual perspective to take. NAI.
ofmerica pretty much just restated accepted site meta (35) when prompted (34). They seem to have misunderstood what I was saying about what mafia would know in my hypothetical, so I clarified (36). Then they went on to say that it's a bad idea to claim mason (37, 42). I'm not going to say this is alignment-indicative though, because I think mafia would want cop to claim cop rather than mason. I can read what ofmerica said as either town-beneficial or scum-beneficial.
fwogcarf said (48) that strategy discussion is NAI. I think it can be AI, as I explained in my read on NorwegianboyEE. Still, I can believe town having fwogcarf's perspective here. I prodded (49) saying that this was beneficial to town, and fwogcarf blew it off (52) saying that it wouldn't factor into his reads. He then said (53) that it benefits mafia more than town, but he wouldn't protest if the discussion continued without him (54). Seems a bit shady to me. If you believe that a discussion benefits scum more than town, why wouldn't you try to shut it down? I called him out (56) pointing out that his claim (53) that scum knows more about the setup is wrong (on average). He admits to having made a mistake (64). And it is an easy mistake to make. I don't think anyone was studying the NewD3 table as much as I was.
ofmerica (66) asked Dunnstral about Progo's "slip" (62), but without saying there was anything wrong with it. ofmerica spent a lot of P5 arguing that this was a slip. That looks to me like scum trying to start a wagon without actually being on it, and I said as much (116). ofmerica defends by saying that they didn't vote Progo because they wanted to hear from Progo first (118) ... but I'm not finding anywhere where ofmerica actually asked Progo to address what was happening, or anywhere where ofmerica actually addressed Progo directly at all. Just double-checked ofmerica's posts: they have not directly addressed Progo in this entire game.
Reads thus far:
NorwegianboyEE - Probably town for volunteering town-beneficial advice that wasn't obvious (at least to newbies) and wouldn't have been noticed if it were omitted.
fwogcarf - Might be scum for not trying to stop a discussion that he seems to have thought benefited mafia. I don't have a strong feeling about this though. Might be sub-optimal town play.
ofmerica - Might be scum for quietly trying to start a wagon without engaging in any actual questioning of the person the wagon targets. I'd put the odds of them being scum higher than fwogcarf, which is why this is still my vote.
I'd really like to hear more from the other five players though. Since I don't have much in their words to go off of, I'm going to post some stats:
AutoDefenestrator
5 posts: 44, 122, 123, 129, 130
447 words. 89 average words per post.
fwogcarf
12 posts: 38, 39, 48, 52, 53, 54, 64, 70, 78, 79, 80, 84
216 words. 18 words per post.
ofmercia
15 posts: 8, 30, 35, 37, 42, 66, 87, 94, 98, 103, 111, 112, 115, 118, 128
566 words. 37 words per post.
TistDaniel
19 posts: 13, 15, 19, 26, 31, 33, 36, 40, 41, 43, 47, 49, 50, 56, 116, 117, 119, 125, 131
2616 words. 137 words per post.
ProgoWoshua
9 posts: 45, 46, 51, 62, 68, 88, 89, 100, 102
183 words. 20 words per post.
KittyTacky
14 posts: 6, 11, 28, 29, 74, 75, 76, 86, 99, 110, 113, 114, 121, 124
437 words. 31 words per post.
NorwegianboyEE
37 posts: 9, 10, 12, 16, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 27, 34, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 63, 69, 71, 73, 81, 83, 90, 91, 92, 93, 95, 96, 97, 101, 105, 106, 107, 109, 132
1474 words. 39 words per post.
Dunnstral
5 posts: 14, 17, 65, 67, 82
387 words. 77 words per post.
Frogsterking
7 posts: 7, 72, 77, 85, 104, 108, 120
234 words. 33 words per post.
I said (47) that I'm a very slow and analytical reader when it comes to mafia games. This is why. I'm collecting and organizing data as much as I can. I feel it helps with investigation. For example, you can tell at a glance that Dunnstral, AutoDefenestrator, and Frogsterking are the biggest lurkers in this game. fwogcarf and ProgoWoshua are less obvious lurkers: they've made more posts, but they've said less in those posts. I'm the most active player by wordcount, and second most active by postcount. NorwegianboyEE is the most active by postcount and the second most active by wordcount, which reinforces my townread on him: lurking is anti-town, and he's lurked less than anyone.
My vote remains on ofmerica.
I'm not sure I'm following this bolded part here. Exactly what about that is scum indicative that translates over multiple games?In post 269, fwogcarf wrote:i do not like a majority of autodefenestrator's posts, his first ones to me explain how he's going to play the game, which i find scum indicative in most cases.i feel like he hasn't done anything this game
This is one of those posts that is so easily faked with how often I've heard this exact phrase and wording.In post 197, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Consistent or not consistent isn’t necesarilly indicative of town or scum.
Town players contradict themselves all the time. And players that are very consistent when they are usually not, may be scum.
Is consistency something you scum hunt with Frog?
their recent interactionsIn post 302, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Based on what?In post 297, fwogcarf wrote:ofmercia/kitty not w/w
This is a read that's supported from other games that are not on this site, and I tried to make this play when I rolled scum in one game, didn't work out.In post 312, StrangeMatter wrote:I'm not sure I'm following this bolded part here. Exactly what about that is scum indicative that translates over multiple games?In post 269, fwogcarf wrote:i do not like a majority of autodefenestrator's posts, his first ones to me explain how he's going to play the game, which i find scum indicative in most cases.i feel like he hasn't done anything this game
This post is what solidified that read for meIn post 289, ofmercia wrote:What? We were discussing something totally different. This is a big stretch lol. The two aren't even related at all. This has to be scum.In post 288, KittyTacky wrote:This is still scum. Not much ofmercia said or did makes much sense as town. Jumped on someone for what is blatantly a language mistake, when people started piling up votes, attempts to deflect with "the game is RNG".In post 286, ofmercia wrote:Actually proving me right. So keep going.In post 285, KittyTacky wrote:lmao. It's not quite RNG because scum tend to be scummy. Like you for example.In post 275, ofmercia wrote:Oh, I haven't read any of it, because it's pretty obvious the game is mostly rng especially day 1. So there's probably no reliable guide to catching scum. Especially with all the varying behaviors each game from both alignments.
VOTE: kittytacky
Post faked? I stated a fact.In post 316, StrangeMatter wrote:This is one of those posts that is so easily faked with how often I've heard this exact phrase and wording.In post 197, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Consistent or not consistent isn’t necesarilly indicative of town or scum.
Town players contradict themselves all the time. And players that are very consistent when they are usually not, may be scum.
Is consistency something you scum hunt with Frog?