Guns & Roses III [Game over]

[Menalque]

I think scum!you would probably try to buddy me too

[Menalque]

@DW okay I'm waiting for that reevaluation

@icon where are you?

[Menalque]

Can’t remember if I called it here but if not

VLA until after Christmas pls mod

[Menalque]

I know it's the holidays, kinda wanna kowtow with icon and GL tho

[Menalque]

After page 10 I trust S_S and distrust Iconeum, along with Menalque and alimdia
(FYI I’m officially doing the speed reading thing)

can u like give reasons and not just say things

[Menalque]

what do you mean by "how I stuck to iconeum"?

what were the weird things alim asked?

what was it about icon's early mindset that seemed scum!motivated?

[Menalque]

eh okay I'll reread D1 a bit later

I'm kinda in holiday stupor for the moment

[Menalque]

Can we not bring people to L-1 with this little discussion in possible MyLo

Louder for the people in the back

[Menalque]

If I had to like take a stab at the gamestate I think I'm still townreading Datisi, Ico, and Amrun, but I don't feel great about it. My gut scumreads are Smart and Menalque but I don't feel great about that either. Gammas slot is bad and I still want to lynch it, but we just lynched two bad slots that flipped town, and I don't have a confident read on Dogwatch or Alimdia. I kinda want somebody else to try to take charge for a little bit because I think somewhere along the way I've been buddied and I don't see it.

Why am I a gut scumread for you GL

idk if I can explain it honestly, you just feel different to me than our last two games together - it feels like there's more of an agenda/plan to the stuff you're doing and you're consciously trying to emulate your townplay rather than just being your townself. I can't really give firm reasons outside of the DDL tunnel D1 and your brief push on me D2 tho, it's entirely gut and I waffle on it myself constantly

Eh this is reasonable even if the logic is wrong

I’m just struggling to get into mafia generally rn so I keep having bits where I’m min efforting and bits where I’m hard playing and I think it’s throwing my tone off

Why do you think I would tunnel ddl D1 as scum/push you D2?

[Menalque]

also like I said Menalque, I'm still scum reading primarily in slots that were off both lynches and don't seem to be controlling the game state which is making me feel like someone more active is scum in my town pool... like if we had infinite lycnhes I'd just roll on through Gamma next here but I'm worried my overall reads are way off right now

if you wanna kowtow let's talk the Datisi/Amrun/DogWatch block that was with me in the middle of both lynches - possible there's no scum in there? What's your latest on DogWatch and Amrun?

Yeah the reason I want to engage with your SR on me is that I think I feel most comfortable on datisi + you = town and I think I work better when I’m able to bounce stuff off people I trust but that requires you being able to engage with me in good faith

Which tbf I think you are doing here but that’s why I was asking

Why do you think there is scum in there? I’m ruling out datisi scum so if there is it’s between DW and amrun but tbh I don’t really SR either of them

I guess if I had to choose I’d say amrun, but I think amrun/SS is SvT and I’d lean SS scum there atm

[Menalque]

I think SS is actually just scum probably

Like I don’t really think him just saying “yeah I guess I’m off my tone” is a good reason to ignore that I think he’s off

And like I don’t really think he’s trying to do anything with his questions, I think he’s mostly just trying to be contrary to everything and stop any momentum from getting going which I don’t remember from town!him

[Menalque]

I’m gonna hold off on voting for now tho, as we literally all should be bc this may be mylo

[Menalque]

Mena you gave a list for D3?

If I didn’t already then it’s something like

dats - town
GL
alim
DW - townlean
Amrun
Icon
Gamma - scumlean
SS - scum

[Menalque]

I don’t really think icon is scum but I feel better about all of the slots above him being town

Gamma hasn’t really done anything to redeem his slot for me yet

SS I just said and honestly he’s been bothering me all game

[Menalque]

I think if SS!scum then gamma very likely scum and icon prob!town or at least enough to not be considered until lylo

[Menalque]

Will try to get to this soon sorry, holiday season isn’t great for me

[Menalque]

SS I'm really struggling to get a good read on you this game

which I think may actually be town indicative for you bc the only time I personally played against scum!you I was TRing you very hard

okay, what made you change your mind from here

Why is Amrun above Icon?

I guess I realised misreading him as scum before doesn’t necessarily mean that I’d misread him this game

Re: amrun

Idk I think SS!scum is also -scum equity for her as well as icon but that can be resolved later

I still think SS!scum means gamma!scum and I’m willing to shelve sorting between whether it’s actually clearing for icon/amrun until later / whether I’m wrong on one of DW/alim

[Menalque]

Why do you think there is scum in there? I’m ruling out datisi scum so if there is it’s between DW and amrun but tbh I don’t really SR either of them

it's just because they were on both wagons in the deciding middle vote areas and I feel like it'd be really naive/foolish to assume that no scum was participating in either of those lynches as they were solidifying

but I agree with you that from like tonal/content perspective they all feel town and it's entirely a game state thing that's making me feel like I need to be careful

tbf unless it’s exactly (SS, gamma, icon) then you’re prob right here

[Menalque]

Menalque, give me the Sparknotes on Datisi town.

I still think datisi is townreadable on tone bc she struggles to simulate being relaxed as scum

I also think she was pushing the gamestate forward on D2 when it would have just apathied and even with the mislynch I think she was pushing for more readable content from people rather than trying to guarantee a mislynch, all of which I think is more town!motivated than scum!motivated

Today I think she’s been doing more of the same

I didn't say anything about "off my tone," either. My tone is my tone, it varies based on a bunch of factors.

What's off this game is my content, which is separate from my tone, but I think it's because not a lot of people have really put forward reasoning that I can engage with, and it's left me... disengaged. Shocker.

You said something acknowledging you were off, I thought it was tone but maybe it was content

I think there’s been plenty put forward and I think you could quite easily have engaged with it more if you’d wanted to?

[Menalque]

Why does scum!SS imply scum!Gamma?

I think gamma’s catch up was aimed at steering the lynch away from SS which is +scum for him if SS flips scum

[Menalque]

If I’m wrong about there not being scum in (amrun, datisi, DW) I’d rather sort there after lynching SS and prob gamma

[Menalque]

That’s re: the discussion on p92

[Menalque]

Super ok with this.

VOTE: something_smart

But we can’t let gamma coast either.


@GL:

I realize I shouldn’t be pointing this out because it makes you more likely to scumread me, but, I believe you’re town sooo... who is scum reading Ico? You said people are casually scumreading Ico but the ONLY person I can think of who does so is gamma. So I don’t understand your train of thought here at all.

Also don’t understand the buddy reads on S_S and me, but whatever, will cross that bridge when we get there, if we get there. I’ve never in my life seen scum openly sheep onto another scum with no wagon by following a dead player, and I don’t think I ever will.

I mean I’m SLing icon by PoE rn

Yeah Gamma's playstyle annoys me to no fucking end but I can't shake off the feeling that he's been dragged along as a mislynch

Okay if this is right then doesn’t it imply amrun!town bc otherwise why would she be trying to lynch the game winning mislynch today? Unless you think scum does have 2 guns left

[Menalque]

VOTE: SS

that’s L-1[/vote]

[Menalque]

Ffs

that’s L-1

[Menalque]

Why do you strongly TR icon @amrun

[Menalque]

I don't feel bad about losing this game, nobody is interested in thinking critically, and they have not been since the beginning of the game.

I don’t really think this is true, I think you’re just looking for excuses for why you haven’t been doing much

[Menalque]

Also the fact that you’re BoPing me for SRing you — and that is de facto what you’re doing when you say that I should be competent enough to not let town drive off a cliff, mixed in with some AtE, isn’t doing anything good for my read on you

[Menalque]

Eh, I'm not exactly TRing her
With so little kills i think there is a real chance scum might have saved guns for later

Plus even if not and they get like one kill tonight tomorrow would be 4v3 lylo in this dead town and good luck solving that

Given how many roses there are is it not more likely that scum hit a rose already?

[Menalque]

I want gamma and icon back before hammer

[Menalque]

I don’t remember for sure but I think I’ve been waiting for icon to respond to me on something for about a real life week

[Menalque]

Nah I don’t think that’s necessary, I wouldn’t have voted if I didn’t want him at L-1

[Menalque]

I TR Ico mostly for the timing and tone of his Salamence20 push. It just had very little scum
motivation fmpov.

Can you talk more about this?

I need to reread D1

Was he pushing sally as a contrast to you?

[Menalque]

Lmao it’s literally gamma/ SS

I am amazing at mafia

Yall welcome

Happy nez yeqr

[Menalque]

Oof

[Menalque]

French keyboards

Happy new year!

[Menalque]

Amrun r u the third

[Menalque]

I can see you’re online

[Menalque]

It’s u or icon

[Menalque]

Can u just say if it’s u bc we’re gonna get you via PoE anyway once we’ve done SS and gamma

[Menalque]

Tbh it just makes life easier for everyone

[Menalque]

Same thing to icon if he ever comes back

[Menalque]

I see you amrun

[Menalque]

Right first things first reminder to everyone

DO NOT VOTE UNLESS YOU ARE SURE

[Menalque]

I think I agree that mass claim is the way to go today

Like we lose anyway if we get it wrong so the benefit of having a conf!town or having a 1v1 if scum counterclaim is worth it I think

[Menalque]

Err no that sounds like a horrible idea esp bc we haven’t talked about any of the other slots

[Menalque]

shouldn't guns claim gun and night, but hold off with saying their target?

Yes probably

[Menalque]

Also I want this to slow down

Datisi why did you start day by talking about a you/me/alim townbloc?

[Menalque]

Bc my reaction to today is that I’m not really sure on anyone town anymore after the SS flip

And actually @icon, idk why I’m a scum priority NK when my reads have been ass backward this game

[Menalque]

why not?
we need to solve this game and we need to do it fast if Town's gonna have a shot

you two are still my two strongest TR's, I don't see an issue?

Bc we’ve just lynched wrong 3 days in a row and rushing into today is the exact opposite of what we need to do imo, which is be methodical try and do some VCA, reread ISOs and days

Mass claim too, but I’m not actually convinced that massclaim should be in the order you proposed

Like that’s the order I would have wanted pre-SS flip I think but post-SS flip I’m not sure

[Menalque]

literally everyone's (town's) reads are gonna have been godawfull this game seeing NOT A SINGLE SCUM has been lynched

so who do scum target on N1/2/3 according to you?

not even calculating the possible extra shot(s)?

Well this is why I wanna go back and reread the 4 conf!towns’ reads bc potentially theirs haven’t been

Idk I think sally and GL make sense but pret slightly less so, and AFF makes the least to me intuitively

[Menalque]

Getting a head start =/= rushing

I'm not saying we need to start voting within 15 minutes

But this town has been full of lurksacks and I'm not going to give them more excuses

I'm laying my stuff out and getting reactions

What order would you like?

Okay yes, everyone needs to be producing today that’s fine

I just don’t want to be finalising claim order yet until I’ve had a chance to go through a bit more but I’m about to go out to the cinema with my fam and then on to a friend’s birthday thang this eve so I won’t be able to do that properly until later

As for order: idk I’m still gut TRing you i think but I’m also kinda wondering if you could have just improved on the tone thing

[Menalque]

I would also like to know why datisi is/I am a high priority NK fypov

[Menalque]

If you want to have another round of real-time interactions later I'm down Mena

Yeah this works

[Menalque]

I’m having tinfoil about Mena but more sure about Datisi and I don’t think they’re scum together? Plus menal has some mindmelding with me on this page alone.

I’ll bet the game in Iconeum town. Will never lynch there.

Completely supportive of claiming.

Want to talk about this tinfoil?

Also when you say more sure about datisi sure she’s scum or town?

[Menalque]

I mean you're not wrong that those are NKs that I think could come from scum!me

not commenting on the gun point until we figure out an order for massclaim

what makes you question my commitment to the lynches I've pushed?

and what were the reasons you had me as town?

[Menalque]

no popcorn is not fine

[Menalque]

Jesus, I leave thread for 5 minutes and people start wanting to popcorn, no

[Menalque]

popcorn is explicitly bad when there's someone who is being universally scum read because if correct then that just means giving scum the ability to dictate the order of claims more

[Menalque]

I also don't actually think we should be claiming yet bc people should be reevaluating prior to massclaim, even if we do need to massclaim soon

partly because scum is more easily caught here if they do something like push the gun really hard as scum only to then realise they're dealing with conftown

[Menalque]

I actually think gamma may be town here

[Menalque]

It’s slightly WIFOM but I genuinely think scum!him is better than this entrance today

[Menalque]

Okay basically why does scum!gamma think the best way to win the game is to enter, do fuck all, and call out mass claiming after literally having it yesterday

[Menalque]

Like it’s awful play but I really think that with a win this close from scum!gamma’s pov he would make more of an effort to try and look town

[Menalque]

I would def like to do massclaim first. Having a confirmed town could really help me depending who it is.

Yes +1 but not popcorn

Gamma goes first then we figure out order from there
I’m travelling back to France on Monday so idk if I’ll have a chance to reread before I get there

So rn my preference is something like

Gamma -> icon -> amrun -> DW -> alim -> dats -> me

[Menalque]

catching up

[Menalque]

Datisi is very likely scum out of the pool we have left. FMPOV it has to be you or datisi.

Why does it have to be one of us fypov and what exactly makes you think we're not possible partners?

and also your proposed massclaim order?

PoE. I mean, outside chance or DogWatch/alum/gamma but I just don’t think so.

And I guess my order would be Gamma - Datisi - alimdia - Menalque - DogWatch - Iconeum - myself

I mean you're not wrong that those are NKs that I think could come from scum!me

not commenting on the gun point until we figure out an order for massclaim

what makes you question my commitment to the lynches I've pushed?

and what were the reasons you had me as town?

Day 1 I felt like you were soft pushing DDL. You were hard pushing me, but dropped it - still don’t know if you TR me or what. You kinda sorta SR Ico but haven’t pushed it at all. I don’t have a sense of strong reads from you in general and that worries me.

I had you town from you tinfoiling people TR you for your “slip.” That seemed genuinely paranoid to me. Meh.

@alimdiah: I have explained my Ico TR several times now so I won’t re-invent the wheel. However, to add to it, the way he came into today treating my slot is not what I would see scum doing because I see myself as a mislynchable slot right now. Which is exactly why your soft SR on me and the way you went about it is scummy.

can you go through (again? I can't remember if you explained already) your datisi read?

I wouldn't say I hard pushed you but yeah I probably should have pushed ddl harder but I was starting to feel generally burned out at the time and so I didn't get onto it

I am beginning to SR ico more now, but I was TRing him initially. Then I started thinking he was scum via PoE. If you're not getting strong reads from me it's because most of my strong reads have been flipped and I was wrong about most of them, which is making me seriously question if I should keep trusting my reads or I should totally reevaluate

like, potentially I'm not totally wrong but I just misread town twice first

or I've had everything back to front all game and I need to look a lot more closely in all of datisi-alim-DW

[Menalque]

I mean GA should give reads first otherwise he can just make anyone popcorn claim next without needing to give a proper reason

strong +1

[Menalque]

Also... is there anyone that is like... setting up on a lynch on Icon? I don't see anyone doing it?

Menalque kinda

what makes me "setting up a lynch" vs not trusting icon and wanting to make sure he gets proper scrutiny? I don't think I've said at all that icon should be the lynch today

[Menalque]

because it's worked so far?

we can go at a different angle. Town!Gamma knows (1) that he's by far the most likely mislynch today and (2) that mislynching him today loses him the game. why does he enter, do fuck all, and call out mass claiming after literally having it yesterday?

I mean I'm not saying gamma has not been terrible here, but I'm saying I think being terrible is more likely to come from town when potentially all scum has to do here is look townier than the next person and the game is donezo

like there's a reason why I'm not saying "oh yeah we should locktown gamma based on this" I'm saying "this is making me worried that gamma is still here as the default lynch and that combined with his entrance makes me nervous about rushing in on him"

[Menalque]

I also don't actually think we should be claiming yet bc people should be reevaluating prior to massclaim, even if we do need to massclaim soon

partly because scum is more easily caught here if they do something like push the gun really hard as scum only to then realise they're dealing with conftown

um.. being wrong or pushing conftown before they're conftown does not mean they are scum.

I'm more concerned about your lack of addressal of *everything else*.

Ikr. Gamma slot is hella frustating. See this:

Pretty sure everyone is like 'yea gamma', which is worrying because he's either being dragged as a mislynch or actually scum and his buddies are getting credit while simultaneously spreading fear about gamma being a mislynch bait.

the point is if someone is pushing conf!town hard as being super scummy then seeing how they reevaluate in the light of that person being conf!town will be very AI for that person

it would also help clarify if two people were 1v1ing and calling each other's reasons for their SRs misreps etc etc easier to see if one person was actually fabricating their read rather than it being genuine

[Menalque]

like i

was genuinely gonna ask if we should skip massclaim and just lynch Gamma

, because if he's Zown we probably just lose at some point anyway so might as well end it right now and save everyone's time, and if he's scum then we're outing the conftown today and they're getting shot tonght, and having them at 5p lylo would probably be better than 7p

okay this makes me very uncomfortable

[Menalque]

like yes having a potential conf town at 5p lylo is good but as mentioned we literally just lose if we lynch wrong today

and I think it's just mathematically wrong? today with conf!town I have a 60% random chance of voting scum

then tomorrow in 5p I would have a 50% chance of voting scum

whereas this way round it's 50% today

followed by 66% tomorrow

but the 66% tomorrow is dependent on actually hitting scum today

[Menalque]

I mean I'm not saying gamma has not been terrible here, but I'm saying

I think being terrible is more likely to come from town

when potentially all scum has to do here is look townier than the next person and the game is donezo

like there's a reason why I'm not saying "oh yeah we should locktown gamma based on this" I'm saying "this is making me worried that gamma is still here as the default lynch and that combined with his entrance makes me nervous about rushing in on him"

why

because of the second part of that sentence?

I think town!gamma is slightly more likely to be defeatist here than scum!gamma

all scum!gamma needs to do is to try and be a little bit less scummy than the next person to win

whereas town!gamma who wouldn't know who scum is would have to effort only to potentially shift the lynch onto another town and lose anyway

[Menalque]

I’d actually rather lynch datisi today I think. Shocking, I know.

can you talk more about why this is?

[Menalque]

Menl is openwolfing here wtf

lmao what

[Menalque]

In short menal is now going against open claiming without good reason and calling gamma, the widest scum read slot, as town zithout explaining

He's not playing to a town wincon here

lmao WHAT

[Menalque]

having concerns about a slot =/= calling them town

also I literally haven't been against mass claiming (assuming that's what you mean by "open claiming" at any point???)

[Menalque]

nope
first scenario is 0.6*0.5 = 0.3 = 30% of making it to 3p lylo
second is 0.66*0.5 = 0.33 = 33% of making it to 3p lylo

because we all gotta get it right both times

if we ignore any possible 1v1s

pedit: jfc can you SLOW DOWN

okay but I'm weighting having a higher percentage chance here in 7p as more valuable than having it in 5p

[Menalque]

like honestly the way you/icon/amrun is acting is kiiiiind of worrying me tbh

amrun and icon are hard TRing each other

amrun has said she wants to Lynch you today but I don't think she's cased you and she hasn't really been pushing it

she's also said she's tin foiling me as scum

you're TRing me which is what I'd expect

but also pushing a gamma lynch really hard and kind of ignoring the other slots in the game

icon is entering with a strong "Mena/gamma + 1" scum team read, indicating he'd be fine with gamma too

so it just sort of feels like this could be 2 scum pushing on town while one is distancing from it in case it doesn't work out


***

that said

idk I'm still struggling to believe you can emulate your town play this well as scum but equally you have fooled me hard before as scum

but then again that was our first game together and I'\ve literally not been wrong on you since then

[Menalque]

remind me if you've been scum with icon before datisi?

[Menalque]

Mena you gave a list for D3?

If I didn’t already then it’s something like

dats - town
GL
alim
DW - townlean
Amrun
Icon
Gamma - scumlean
SS - scum

Can u just say if it’s u bc we’re gonna get you via PoE anyway once we’ve done SS and gamma

On phone hare to prop quote

He goes from scum reading gamma to town read based on an opening post to still wanting gamma to go first in mass claim

How

err because I'm not TRing gamma I'm just not lockscummed on him because it seems like there are a lot of people who are and that should also be worrying to you given that this is lylo??

and I want him to go first because as I said idk if I will have time to reread properly before I head back to France and so this is based on where my reads were at + on finding an order that is agreeable to, and gamma is scumread widely enough that in spite of my doubts I still think he should go first

[Menalque]

but also pushing a gamma lynch really hard and kind of ignoring the other slots in the game

the reason why i'm doing this rn bc as i said if we're planning on lynching Gamma somewhere down the road if he's Town we lose anyway so let's rip the bandaid off. and if he flips scum then scum needs to plan for 5p lylo, and it's better for them to do so with as little information as possible

and no, i haven't

well yeah but my point is I don't think the right approach is "oh we're definitely lynching gamma lets get it over with" I think it's "let's actually try to sort gamma here because IF he's town playing badly then it's gg if we Lynch him for that"

like I think town loses more often because of default lynching the scummiest looking player rather than looking for actual scum, and I think it's often justified with "if X is town/scum we deserve to lose"

[Menalque]

we still have what, like 6 days? I sure as shit don't wanna lynch gamma without him making more than about 5 posts today, and I also don't wanna Lynch him without discussing everyone else in the game too

[Menalque]

A conf town today is stronger then maybe having one tomorrow because scum could nk him

Also more information today let's us have better odds

it doesn't
the point was
we can a) massclaim then prob lynch Gamma
b) skip massclaim and lynch Gamma immediately

and like sure in case a) there might be a 1v1 but we're probably likely to just lynch Gamma sometime down the road

basically we're probably lynching him *anyway* so let's not do a)

Is it this one? I don't read this as opposing mass claim

I don't disagree with the fact that gamma is being lynched anyway soon

But Id rather solve the next 2 lunches today

Mass claim is gonna make a pool to work with and gives scum less wiggle room if we lynch correctly


My thoughts

Conf town if any today is stronger then potentially no conf town tomorrow

Don't give scum a chance t kill there

And if scum kill the conf town overnight?

I actually do agree with all these points in favour of massclaim today

hmm

[Menalque]

i'm not justifying with with "if Gamma is Town we deserve to lose"
I'm justifying it by "I really don't think town!Gamma is going to start acting so Towny to live to 3p and actially win there so if he is town we lose sooner or later so let's end it sooner"

do you have any experience with Gamma?

yes, I played against him as scum in Pokemon ruby, he beat me as scum in pfup, and I think there's at least one other game that we've played in together as well as that

he's also modded a game where I was town

[Menalque]

like I'm not saying we don't Lynch gamma today dats

I'm saying we do due diligence on the other slots in the game as well instead of only talking about gamma for 7 days and then speedlynching him because we've failed to assess anyone else

[Menalque]

what's your current take on icon and amrun?

also on DW and alim?

[Menalque]

and icon, why is alim your top TR?

[Menalque]

Menal scum we lose?
Bullshit

No i think it's actually very very likely

Not because Mena is a god-tier scumlord but because of something else

Whats your read on me Icon?

rude

[Menalque]

datisi why are you thinking one scum in (me, amrun)?

[Menalque]

like I'm not saying we don't Lynch gamma today dats

I'm saying we do due diligence on the other slots in the game as well instead of only talking about gamma for 7 days and then speedlynching him because we've failed to assess anyone else

and i'm saying if we're lynching gamma *anyway* then assessing other slots and giving scum information about who thinks what is literally helping them set up 5p?

yeah but what I'm saying is that I don't want to default lynch gamma here

I'm saying okay

we may VERY WELL end up lynching gamma anyway

but maybe we don't because we find a better option for today, but the only way we're gonna do that is if we actually use day to make the most of things

and yes, scum get more information about who thinks what, but scum have more information

anyway

so as much as there is some small upside for scum, increasing the information level in the game is singificantly more +town EV than it is +scum EV

[Menalque]

Actually can you give me a tl;dr on town!Amrun

Scum would come into today leaving my slot open as potential mislynch

Not hard town reading

why not if they think they can get a pocket on you?

[Menalque]

why doesn't that team make sense to you?

[Menalque]

I never said you ignored other slots all game?

Yes, I know you’ve mentioned that you think dats!scum but I can’t remember if you gave reasons for why or not

And either way it would be helpful for that to all be in one place to see your thought process on it

I would strongly prefer that gamma fullclaim first but I’m okay with you going second

How does this sound as a proposed compromise order? If we really can’t find consensus in the next rl day you go first and we’ll popcorn as much as I don’t like it

Gamma -> amrun -> DW-> datisi -> Icon -> me -> alim

[Menalque]

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11486339]post 2646[/url], Amrun"]And also you haven’t pushed anything either today, Menalque?

Who is scum, Menalque? I really don’t know what you think except throwing vague, unsubstantiated shade at icon and me. You haven’t proposed that we are a scumteam, which seems to be the only thing that makes sense with your current stance. Is that what you think, Menalque? Who is third scum then? Why am I having to drag it out of you?[/quote]

The answer to your second question answers your first: I’m not sure where scum is and that’s why I’m not pushing anything yet

I don’t want to rush through lylo and there seems to be a lot of pressure to do that which is making me paranoid that game is nearly over

Yes, I do think you+gamma is plausible seeing as hard TRing each other given it’s gg today and defending each other is strongly in scum’s interests today

However, I also think you could be pocketing icon

But equally I haven’t interacted with DW or alim for ages and I would like to do that

[Menalque]

No, it’s not, which is why I’m saying we should set a hard limit of 24hrs and proceed from there if he doesn’t turn up

I just don’t like it bc it’s an excuse to avoid going early in the claim order, but equally we at least know he’s claimed rose so *shrug*

Yes, I obviously mean you and icon, I definitely don’t think you’re scum with gamma

I think you and gamma are v likely TVS but the problem is IF it’s gamma!town you!scum I’m not gonna know until it’s already too late

And because you actually do seem to have a scumread on datisi? I’m not pushing anything because I feel deeply unsure and I don’t think it’s helpful because why would i push something I’m not myself sold on? Whereas if you really think datisi is scum then why aren’t you doing more to sell us on that?

[Menalque]

Am I misunderstanding the strength of your datisi SR?

[Menalque]

Also should datisi pushing gamma not fypov give you some sort of pause on gamma?

[Menalque]

oh that's awful amrun, I'm so sorry

I hope everything is okay

[Menalque]

I mean I'm not saying gamma has not been terrible here, but I'm saying

I think being terrible is more likely to come from town

when potentially all scum has to do here is look townier than the next person and the game is donezo

like there's a reason why I'm not saying "oh yeah we should locktown gamma based on this" I'm saying "this is making me worried that gamma is still here as the default lynch and that combined with his entrance makes me nervous about rushing in on him"

why

because of the second part of that sentence?

I think town!gamma is slightly more likely to be defeatist here than scum!gamma

all scum!gamma needs to do is to try and be a little bit less scummy than the next person to win

whereas town!gamma who wouldn't know who scum is would have to effort only to potentially shift the lynch onto another town and lose anyway

i'm not justifying with with "if Gamma is Town we deserve to lose"
I'm justifying it by "I really don't think town!Gamma is going to start acting so Towny to live to 3p and actially win there so if he is town we lose sooner or later so let's end it sooner"

do you have any experience with Gamma?

The point where popcorn if used scummily can help us catch scum, is only valid if we actually catch scum first.

yes but the point is who popcorns to whom is potentially useful in finding that out at all

[Menalque]

If you’re the scummiest slot at lylo and you’re actually town, you do a hell of a lot more than gamma has to clear yourself in order to play to your wincon. What is really more likely:

- gamma is town that has given up and doesn’t give a shit if town loses
- gamma is scum who is trying to coast to a likely win
- gamma is scum whose team wants to bus him at lylo

I don’t think it’s the last one because why would scum prolong the game when they could just push a mislynch

?

why is this unlikely fypov? if scum don't feel like they're in a good position to get a mislynch today, why risk the game entirely by doubling down on your teammate being town instead of hard bussing them and going for the win in 5p lylo when you've got towncred for hard pushing scum?

[Menalque]

The slot is so widely scumread that I don’t think post-flip towncred means a whole lot in this particular instance.

it doesn't need to be worth "a whole lot" just enough to get someone who busses hard and early over the line of being less scummy than the scummiest town player

[Menalque]

Gamma -> amrun -> DW-> datisi -> Icon -> me -> alim

So, we following this then or no?

DW, alim?

[Menalque]

Yo I’m back in france

[Menalque]

I don’t like how hard icon pushed back against popcorn and created this position where he’s going last but I also do now understand it

[Menalque]

And icon knows why too

[Menalque]

Icon I want you to go last.

Before I claim, why was this DW?

[Menalque]

Well I had to run through the airport to make my bus bc the flight was 50 minutes late but other than that meh

It’s the same

U?

[Menalque]

That is

Unfun

There was a bathroom on the bus at least tho right?

Also that doesn’t sound like the best idea in the world tbh

[Menalque]

Ones with toilets on them?? This is a normal thing to have on a bus right my peeps

Someone back me up here

Are you “studying” in the same way that I’m currently “sleeping”

[Menalque]

Icon I want you to go last.

Before I claim, why was this DW?

Specific reason but I want your claim first

I don’t mean to be a child about this but: I asked you first

[Menalque]

Considering I'm currently wandering the city at half past midnight

Yes

Ahhh cities

I already miss them

[Menalque]

N2 rose

Going back to sleep now

[Menalque]

Hmm

[Menalque]

2798, 2821

Both of u talk

[Menalque]

Hmm

Why would u do this here

[Menalque]

That is possibly +town for u tho, as idk that scum!you intentionally makes me uncomfortable here

[Menalque]

gamma - DW - Amrun - mena - datisi -

Amrun

Alim - Ico

Menl is openwolfing here wtf

In short menal is now going against open claiming without good reason and calling gamma, the widest scum read slot, as town zithout explaining

He's not playing to a town wincon here

It’s slightly WIFOM but I genuinely think scum!him is better than this entrance today

I'm calling shenanigans on this

But ok I'll use the same logic

Town menal does not oppose
Mass claim here

Do you think town Mena calls gamma town today based on that logic?

I now think Menalque can only be scum if gamma is.

Also this makes me think there's exact one scum in {Amrun, Mena} with Gamma being scum regardless

Agree with this

Menal is scum with gamma and a third that I've not given proper thought yet

Here is my solve

Gamma

Menal

DW

menal - alim - ico

or if everyone is very displeased with that

menal - ico - alim

my thoughts

I meticulously planned my choice of gun and slash or rose, so I could do this.

Let’s make things spicy.

I’m a Night 3 Rose.

Counterclaiming this shit.

^I'm Night 3 Rose

the N3 rose meme is real

So it's just me and menal, then?

I meticulously planned my choice of gun and slash or rose, so I could do this.

Let’s make things spicy.

I’m a Night 3 Rose.

Counterclaiming this shit.

^I'm Night 3 Rose

the N3 rose meme is real

So it's just me and menal, then?

spicey

the reason I called this spicey is because I knew then that menal was *most likely* the conftown, barring a lie from town

and i'm thus mistaken in my scumteam

Icon

Explain this

[Menalque]

ain't saying shit until this circus is over

pedit: because you just posted "hmm" as well

ppedit: how is "hmm" makinf you uncomfortable sorry what?

I ah

May have been reading into that

Idk it’s like you’re being jokingly suspicious by copying me if that makes sense but I felt like you were doing it in a way that was to intentionally seem suspicious to me which I was thinking might be you trying to make me think that you were scummy and that obviously you wouldn’t try to look scummy so you weren’t scum

[Menalque]

I considered briefly that icon might be locktown here as I thought that scum would surely CC the gun after forcing their way into claiming last

But then I realised that icon knew by the time he claimed that I wasn’t the gun (so he knew gun was lying if scum!icon) which would presumably only be to gambit bait a scum into a fake CC so I don’t think he would do this especially as forcing himself into the final position as scum would look p bad optically esp if the real gun had crumbed early game

That’s not to say this does make icon scum, but the fact he didn’t claim gun when he knew gun was lying already doesn’t make him as town as I initially thought it did

[Menalque]

Because I rly need to go to sleep

But also weird shit is happening and icon not being the conf!town has thrown me off

[Menalque]

I’m really thinking gamma!slot is the most likely conf!town at this point

[Menalque]

And I think that probably does spew amrun town

Which means 3 scum in (dats, alim, DW, icon)

[Menalque]

ok so fmpov: icon is town, and i'm assuming everyone's TR of alimdia isn't wrong
means 3 scum in [Gamma, Amrun, Mena, DW]

Amrun and Mena aren't scum together - if they are i'll be very shook
and I don't think Amrun and Gamma can be scum together either unless Amrun was doing a weird ass bus the whole game on a teammate that wasn't that active?

which would leave exactly Gamma/Mena/DW - i haven't checked this wrt wagons tho

alim, one of your teams includes both Amrun and Gamma, you think they can be scum together? also how do you come to exactly those two solves?

That’s an interesting question from the person who made this post

[Menalque]

I think icon intentionally tried to go last in claims

I was initially wondering if he wanted to be in best possible position to decide on CC or not (whether he thought he’d win the 1v1)

When it was just me and him, I thought he was conftown

From town him POV he would be thinking the same thing as idk why you’d lie in msss claim — or at least, why you’d sssume lying

But for town!him POV he knew once I claimed that someone was lying BUT that’s also true for scum!him POV so outing himself there would be a huge gamble as he still wouldn’t know if he was likely to have to 1v1

However scum!icon is would have a strong incentive to get his claim out first which is why I thought for a moment this was lock!townable

Then the other bit occurred to me and I realised that if you’re scum and you KNOW that the gun is gsmbitting it’s p ballsy to out there

[Menalque]

ok so fmpov: icon is town, and i'm assuming everyone's TR of alimdia isn't wrong
means 3 scum in [Gamma, Amrun, Mena, DW]

Amrun and Mena aren't scum together - if they are i'll be very shook
and I don't think Amrun and Gamma can be scum together either unless Amrun was doing a weird ass bus the whole game on a teammate that wasn't that active?

which would leave exactly Gamma/Mena/DW - i haven't checked this wrt wagons tho

alim, one of your teams includes both Amrun and Gamma, you think they can be scum together? also how do you come to exactly those two solves?

That’s an interesting question from the person who made this post

not sure i see it?

I forgot it could be scum!amrun shitpushing gamma!town all game

Oh wait but actually that would be a weird decision bc if he gets lynched before then who’s the winning mislynch?

[Menalque]

Right yeah I’m going to sleep

[Menalque]

@dats i feel fairly confident at this point that it’s icon/amrun + 1

[Menalque]

I have about 5 minutes before I head to class

[Menalque]

Here is the very brief gist: I think amrun entered today pushing for the easiest mislynch (gamma) which is what it would be if the scum team assumed it was me who was gun

But had “paranoia” on me to allow a pivot

Icon turned up and shitpushed me (and you, which is making me think you have negative partner equity)

I think the continued gamma push is to feign a big reversal once he sees it, but also it doesn’t matter bc I think I’m now the target today?

[Menalque]

So now I think scum has presumably realised that gamma is the gun taking off the table what they thought was the easiest push

Meaning that it’s now necessary to force a new take on me

And I think amrun’s “reversal” on you is p obviously faked

[Menalque]

I’m not the gun, how fucking obvious does it need to be

[Menalque]

Yea sure thing amrun

[Menalque]

Fypov i make 0 sense as scum considering gamma

Gamma was the obvious mislynch today

Given that it’s LITERALLY GG if he’s lynched, what’s the scum!motivation in me defending him before there was any reason to suspect he was gun?

[Menalque]

That was @anrun

[Menalque]

@icon if it’s not you then I’m p sure it’s amrun + 2/3 of dats/alim/DW

But you and amrun felt v coordinated here so I think it’s prob just you

[Menalque]

Gamma was the obvious mislynch today

you are certain gamma is town?

Not 100% but if anyone here is gun they’re being a cunt

[Menalque]

I literally have class in 7 minutes

[Menalque]

Tbh atm I'm more interested in

Why did you pick rose, mena?

2 reasons — (1) I thought it was the strategically safer bet after last game and the 3 roses

(2) — I thought scum would sssume I’d pick gun and thought I might bait one of the shots

I’m actually not convinced I didn’t succeed given that there was only 1 kill on N2 but GL flipping last night is making me think they prob just shot him twice

[Menalque]

What’s the scum motivation in me reversing my read on Datisi AT ALL?

That datisi seems more likely to vote me than I do her and so you decided that was a better angle

Esp if you and icon could push her towards scum!mena together

[Menalque]

Gamma was the obvious mislynch today

you are certain gamma is town?

If gamma is the gun

DW is the lynch

and we work from there

thoughts?

My thoughts are that you and amrun have been really fucking in sync all through this on who should be lynched

You came in going “oh why aren’t dats and mena dead”

Amrun went for “oh I have a paranoia SR on mena, and I still think dats is likely scum”

Both of you seemed very okay with the gamma lynch without pushing it

Now you’ve both shifted to “yeah DW should definitely be the lynch if gamma is conf”

[Menalque]

Idk why it quoted the first post as well

[Menalque]

@menal

who are your possible teams and who do you think we should lynch today if you consider gamma the gun?

I think the most likely at this point is you/amrun/alim

But I could also see you both hard bussing DW and going for the win in 5p by trying for a mislynch on me

I guess it could be dats but that’s mostly just a paranoia thing, I’m not really SRing her rn

I don’t really see a team without you in it with conf!gamma

Maybe amrun/dats/DW? Amrun/dats/alim seems off amrun/DW/alim and dats/DW/alim also don’t make a lot of sense to me just intuitively

Like I very doubt that DW and amrun are aligned but I do need to reread their thing on I think D2 to see if that could have been distancing

[Menalque]

Like

menal thinks gamma is most likely the gun

so his PoE is LITERALLY ico/dats/alim/dw/amrun

if he leaves me out, then 3 scum are automatically in dats/alim/dw/amrum

YET

he is only 'pretty sure' that is to be the case if I'm town?

What the actual fuck is the line you’re pushing here icon

Yeah you’re just scum

I think pushing “scum slips” as opposed to using occam’s is prob scum

The much simpler explanation is — I was rushing to get to clsss and didn’t think about the fact that yes, that is mechanically the only pool if you’re town— the reason I didn’t think that much about it is BC I think you’re probably scum and now I think you’re almost lockscum

You’ve been pushing a shit angle on me all day and twisting whatever you can find into being scum!indicstive for me

[Menalque]

Big brain theory
Mena/Icon/alim

Goodnight

Yeah great job datisi you figured it out

[Menalque]

ok bro

ok boomer

[Menalque]

No but keep shitpushing me icon go ahead

[Menalque]

What the actual fuck is the line you’re pushing here icon

you lit quoted the line i was pushing

'if ico town, then all remaining scum are in all remaining players minus the conftown'

that's what you said

And I think that course of thought is WAY beneath town!Menal's thinking

because i was running out of my room and think you’re probably my top pick for scum rn

So yeah I hadn’t thought about teams without you that much since you hardclsimed not gun and when running through that it went “other scumresd + 2”

Trying to push that as a scum thought process is just fucking wow

[Menalque]

I think you’ve been pushing me as scum since day opened with like anything you can get

[Menalque]

What do you want me to think

[Menalque]

Menl is openwolfing here wtf

It’s slightly WIFOM but I genuinely think scum!him is better than this entrance today

I'm calling shenanigans on this

But ok I'll use the same logic

Town menal does not oppose
Mass claim here

Where???? Is Mena??? Opossing mass claim????

Like I'm the only one saying "maybe we shouldn't massclaim today"

Like I don’t think town you makes this series of posts when I literally was never opposing mass

But I do think scum!you could make them if you thought you wouldn’t be able to get me to vote datisi and I was pushing back on gamma who was your set mislynch

[Menalque]

YOU PUSHED ME FOR OPPOSING MASS CLAIM WHEN IT’S LITERALLY EVIDENT FROM READING MY POSTS TODAY AT ALL THAT I NEVER DID AND YOU’RE SAYING YOU STAND BY THAT

[Menalque]

What do you want me to think

If ur town, I want you to solve this game

If gamma is town, then I think you calling him town (you know what I mean) at the beginning of the day is town!indicative of you

because scum would definitely have gamma as their winning lynch today, and not start towncalling him

Yes no fucking shit

[Menalque]

And you literally came in today with some post about how gamma was like locked as the lynch

[Menalque]

Why would I not just bus gamma there

I don’t think this makes any sense fypov

[Menalque]

Well not doesn’t make any sense I suppose I can see that

But I feel like you’re intentionally taking less likely scenarios and basing your reads around them and I doubt that’s coming from town you

Like the far more solid play is to hardbus gamma there and then push probably you in 5p there

[Menalque]

It’s not worth going for the insta win if you’re setting a loss by burning all your towncred if it goes bad

[Menalque]

YOU PUSHED ME FOR OPPOSING MASS CLAIM WHEN IT’S LITERALLY EVIDENT FROM READING MY POSTS TODAY AT ALL THAT I NEVER DID AND YOU’RE SAYING YOU STAND BY THAT

oh hell no

I believed it when I wrote it, but datisi made it clear that I was mistaken wrt to you opposing massclaim (it was only opposing popcorn).

My main issue with you was 'openwolfing' by defending gamma

what are you standing by then

[Menalque]

Also talk me through why it was noteworthyily suspicious that datisi and I were still alive

[Menalque]

Like the far more solid play is to hardbus gamma there and then push probably you in 5p there

Doesn't mean scum!you isn't gonna try by soft defending gamma and see what happens

Literally my scum play is all about doing the fundamentals right and going for the win

Generally, that means not bussing but if I’m in a situation where I know I’m TR enough to probably get the win so long as I don’t have awful associations with flipped scum, I would bus to the ever living fuck

[Menalque]

Also talk me through why it was noteworthyily suspicious that datisi and I were still alive

again?

sure

I think if both of you are town, either of you would have been NK'd already

Right why

What makes me or datisi a better nk than any of pret/sally/AFF/GL

[Menalque]

I don’t understand this game if gamma isn’t the gun and frankly it’s fucked

[Menalque]

Like I initially wondered if the gambit was a big brain play to bait scum into a bad CC but keeping it up here is just trolling and I think actively lowering town win EV

[Menalque]

Only the team you just listed has got basically no experience with either of us and so idk why you think they’d fear kill either of us

Like I’ve only got a completed full game with alim and it was autumnal which you know was an awful game for me

And amrun I think at the time of N1 at least hadn’t caught up in tris’ mini normal

So what reason is there to think that team would fear kill either of us

[Menalque]

Like I initially wondered if the gambit was a big brain play to bait scum into a bad CC but keeping it up here is just trolling and I think actively lowering town win EV

unless it comes from an afk slot

Well yeah this is why I think it’s gamma

[Menalque]

Fucking hell I actually do feel slightly better about you now

[Menalque]

But idk if I should or if it’s just the consequence of real time interaction

[Menalque]

i'm saying what I think, from my PoV

Fuck if I know what experience you/dats have with other players

Well my point is generalising from what you think to what other players should think is generally not a reliable way of scumhunting

[Menalque]

Like that’s literally what I ended up doing to GL briefly on D2 before SS called it out

[Menalque]

how is DW not scum here?

My main concern around DW not being scum is that if you and amrun are scum then you seem to both be pushing the same angles today

[Menalque]

Like independently of gamestate DW could be scum but I need to reread

But two players hard manoeuvring from one slot being locked in as lynch towards another is major alarm bells

[Menalque]

But like if you’re town then fucking

Idk

Amrun/DW/alim

[Menalque]

Amrun/datisi/dw

[Menalque]

Idk none of them make sense

[Menalque]

Fuck I just still think datisi is town

[Menalque]

Or at least I really want datisi to be town

[Menalque]

datisi alim dw
alim amrun dw
datisi alim amrun

wtf is this game

menal i don't really see a solve with you not in it :s

I have basically the same problem wrt you

[Menalque]

Tbh I just really want like RC/skitt/NSG to rep into conf!town gamma slot

Bc I would feel totally absolved of responsibility if I sheeped one of them as conf!town and they got it wrong

[Menalque]

Well maybe not totally but I would feel at least okay with it

[Menalque]

Wow it’s almost like you don’t have any actual reasons for me being scum amrun

[Menalque]

Btw people that say 'I dont see a solve without you'... literally everyone has the same POV btw

What do you mean?

[Menalque]

Kumbayaaaaaa my lord

[Menalque]

Yeah I think amrun is prob scum here

[Menalque]

Like I get having tonal reads and letting tone continue to influence you but unless you know someone really well it’s susp af to be mostly basing your read off “they sound frustrated differently” instead of what they’ve actually been doing in the game

[Menalque]

That’s some spicy AtE

[Menalque]

And if datisi or icon is scum after all this, just fuck me

Why is Datisi suddenly town to you?

Bc she’s scum, alim

[Menalque]

Like I get having tonal reads and letting tone continue to influence you but unless you know someone really well it’s susp af to be mostly basing your read off “they sound frustrated differently” instead of what they’ve actually been doing in the game

Why is that suspect? You have only the most garbage of reasons to suspect anyone at all. All game you’ve been trying to drop Icon back into PoE for NOT ONE SINGLE REASON. Your push on me day 1 was literally better than your push here and it sucked then too.

I had a decent “case” on Datisi with pretty good reasons but now I don’t even think she’s scum.

This game sucks and town sucks and I suck. I’m over it. If I’m to be lynched in LyLo for extremely bad reasons, so be it. The game is half scum so we probably lose anyway. I deserve to lose for having such poor reads this game.

What the fuck are you even talking about amrun

“All game you’ve been trying to drop icon back into PoE”

Fucking WHERE

literally I was calling icon town until D3 at which point I straight dropped him into the PoE bc that’s how PoE fucking works

Also get the fuck outta here “most garbage of reasons”

What like “menalque feels frustrated differently” is such a solid reason and not at all obviously bullshit for the fact that fabricating a real scumread takes effort that you’re trying to get out of by AtEing all over the thread

[Menalque]

Like you’re literally just lying saying I’ve been trying to drop icon back into PoE all game

[Menalque]

So I’m not casing because on mobile but I just looked through ISOs

You know who basically every single conf!town player thus far thought was scum?

Give you three guesses

[Menalque]

Bar AFF, notably

[Menalque]

But literally all of creature, pret, sally, ddl, GL, SS had amrun at the bottom of their scum list or in their scum pool when they died

[Menalque]

Icon if ur town then at least make the effort to read what every single actual conf!town player thought I’m not saying read entire ISOs rn but at least read their final 20ish posts and check their final readslists/posts with reads in

[Menalque]

Yeah I know I’m not because I’m fucking town and I don’t have any reason to lie

Unlike amrun who seems to get a nice buzz off talking shit

Read me in ISO too icon

I start PoEing you scum — I’m still not convinced you’re not because you backed off like this when I called you on it in autumnal too — on D3 after my top SR flipped town and because you were being lurkt af which fit with your meta from avp and bc you made a post with some bollocks like “this is where we catch scum!mena” or something which felt like you were looking for ways to lose your expressed TR on me later

[Menalque]

all of this is still assuming that the gamma slot is conftown

Again if that’s not the case then the game is just fucked bc idk how to sort between a fakeclsim and the real one in any of us who have been posting at this point

[Menalque]

but datisi would fearkill menal? no?

I *think* so but this does potentially fit with the missing N2 kill if it was on me

But also in any world where it’s dats she might have chosen to kill GL if she thought she could keep me pocketed and he was less likely to

But I don’t wanna lynch dats today ever basically

Like I still think she’s town

Prob will have to sort between (dats, alim, DW) if I’m right on amrun

And if it’s not you which I still dk if I entirely believe tbh

[Menalque]

i'm not lynching datisi today, ever

DW needs to come in and start explaining stuff

Okay well we can agree on both of these at least

[Menalque]

Pls don’t

[Menalque]

This game is also another reminder to me of why to trust my early reads more I think

[Menalque]

Salamence you've done nothing but take cheap shots at me all game, and been treating me incredibly unfair. If ur town I see absolutely no reason for you not to try and sort me properly instead of these under-the-belt takes you are having.

If ur scum, by all means keep going. Better kill me tonight then tho.

This is the soft I was talking about, or at least what I thought was Icon softing gun. My assumption earlier was that Icon was trying to draw out a cc.

Why would icon be trying to draw out a CC on D1?