Newbie 1717: Newbies Through the Looking Glass (Game Over)
Forum rules
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
I am. It doesn't look like this.In post 30, Mizzytastic wrote:8 -
Even if it's not his style of play I'd expect an SE to be aware this what start of day can look like.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
I'm going to be honest I'm phone posting on vacation and haven't really read anything yet that isn't addressed to me, plus I am focused on the other game I am playing at the moment. My first post was in regards to seeing the sheer volume of posts and the fact that people looked like they were already arguingIn post 46, Lycanfire wrote:VOTE: innocentvillager
I'm reading him as manipulating the pace of the game. At first Meepo made an "are you serious"-post to scoff at the tension. It was clarified twice that people weren't being serious, but Meepo still questioned other peoples motives. Grace admitted again to being loose with her vote. Then IV made a weak post steering discussion in the direction that would make Grace/Accountant/Meepo clash rather than look at someone personally or allow others the opportunity to look at anyone other than those 3. Town IV normally eccentric and aggressive from what I've read in other games (even to the Town's detriment). I'm not seeing any of this right now. Mizzy made a similar post, the third to do so.
Why not Meepo and Mizzy? Not Meepo because he is responding to pressure. That's just the way he chose to respond, and I don't disagree with the response on its own. IV had no meat in his post and I am hungry. Mizzy offered a lot more and seems more in character than IV is.
(RVS with jokes)
Meepo: Are we serious
Grace: no
Accountant: no
Meepo: Sounds pretty serious (the equivalent of "are you sure?")
Accountant: post using this theme to annoy Grace with
Grace: I don't care if it wasn't serious
at this point, it was stated nobody was all that serious 3 times and meepo questioned it twice already
IV: are you guys serious?
Grace: (directed to Accountant) I don't like serious people being serious when we're not being serious
Meepo: (still confused)
Mizzy: Questioning people being serious, making a lot of questions in general
Grace: somehow thinks people are serious now
Meepo: (directed to Mizzy) post about post8 being the joke it obviously is...
Mizzy: really being thrown off by Meepo at this point but I'm reading her post as town
Meepo: I'm not being serious!
Mizzy: repost of last
Meepo: clarifying saying about the same as before
Grace: it didn't seem serious to me
What do you mean "to the Towns detriment"? It's not like it's my fault people were scum reading me for me doing my style of scum hunting.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Lol I'm referring to his accusation on me that I am often eccentric and aggressive in my town meta, not this gameIn post 48, Mizzytastic wrote:Isn't people already arguing a good thing? And how is what you said scumhunting?- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Yeah but it was just so much so fast and sometimes games like this have a lot of noise that makes it annoying to read. It's foreshadowing that this is going to be an extremely long game, which I don't really like.
I'm like goldilocks and the three bitches. Too much activity and I sit back and skim like a bitch, too little activity and I'll fill the thread with bullshit, otherwise it's just right- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
You're right I haven't been scum hunting. I'm still cooling off from last game and on vacation so I don't feel like scum hunting atmIn post 51, Mizzytastic wrote:
He was scumreading you for a lack of your usual style of scumhunting, not because that's your usual style of scumhunting. Also, is this an admission that you haven't been scumhunting yet. If so, why not?In post 50, innocentvillager wrote:
Lol I'm referring to his accusation on me that I am often eccentric and aggressive in my town meta, not this gameIn post 48, Mizzytastic wrote:Isn't people already arguing a good thing? And how is what you said scumhunting?- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
I promise it's important to talk about townreads regardless, as it helps in finding scum by POE.In post 95, Meepo wrote:People please don`t voice your town reads so obviously just yet, because it will be easier to determine for scum who to kill during the night.
My initial impressions are a lot of slight townreads. I didn't really get much from the first page or two, other than that Grace is confused as fuck and Mizzy asks a lot of questions and Accountant is playing the classic null IC. The only thing was that Accountant was a bit unnecessarily defensive on the first page, but that wasn't even too bad since it looked like later it was just reaction testing. Fine.
Rereading Lycanfire's entrance post, I've decided he gets some townpoints for this. Newbs who make the effort to meta definitely get some townpoints (I never did it as newbscum, since there was no incentive to and I didn't think that far ahead). I would never scumread myself from an objective perspective, but I can understand his line of reasoning from a meta perspective. Yes, I do tend to be more aggressive as town and am probably more defensive (I'll leave it up to you guys to make that determination), but I'm definitely not anti-town. Also, I haven't played this game in like two years (minus the game other game I'm currently in), so my playstyle might be a bit different.
This bleeds newbtown.In post 93, Simoyd wrote:I still read a scum lean on meepo. maybe I'm stoopid
Yeah it's always better to have more activity than none, but there's a lot of noise in this game that is making it annoying to read.In post 48, Mizzytastic wrote:Isn't people already arguing a good thing? And how is what you said scumhunting?
I feel weird and scummish sheeping people but I like a lot of the things Accountant is saying, especially in 78. I have to say, I don't get this:
Why. I don't see it.In post 89, Accountant wrote:Okay, Meepo is town. RC, stop playing games and sheep me thanks.
I actually don't like Lycan's post here, even if I thought his first one fine. It's firstly noteworthy that he has done this "extensive meta research" on me, but doesn't say anything about my scum meta. If I meta someone, I want to make sure I look at both alignments and cross compare them, and I think any townie metaing would want to do that. Too many town games and not enough scum? I'll keep clicking until I see a scum game. Better yet, guess their alignment from a random game before looking to get reading practice. Second, I don't like the overreliance on the meta data, which put me not even just at leaning scum, but at full scum. Notice that everyone else on his list is at null or town; looks like he townread everyone since it's hard to find scummy things about people when you know they're town, and then realized that he needs a scumread, so he puts me down since he already had a "reason" anyway. That, for me, overrides the townpoints gained from making the effort to meta in a general sense.In post 92, Lycanfire wrote:Focusing on the meta element of my post 46 is negligent at best and scummy at worst. My point was that discussion was being centralized on a group of 3 people already attacking each other over what were nonsensical posts. Hanging back and watching people dig themselves a hole is only town if there's reasons to see someone's reaction. I sure didn't want to see analysis #10 of jokepost because it won't find scum.
I don't. It was closer to what I expected than IV.In post 82, Mizzytastic wrote:Lycan, you seem to be relying a lot on meta. I dunno about IV but I know you've not seen my scum game because I've not seen my scum game. What makes you think this is town aggression and not just me aggression?
I was hoping to be pushed back by now. IV said he didn't have time to post much, left a low content post that I didn't like. I called it and he spoke about being burnt out and hasn't been helping us any since.In post 90, Accountant wrote:Hey Lycan I feel like you're just sitting around and whaling on someone who can't fight back. Any thoughts on active players?
Town
Meepo
Lean Town
Accountant (IC)
Simoyd
RadiantCowbells (SE)
Null
Mizzytastic
Grace
Pants98 (SE)
Lean Scum
Scum
innocentvillager (SE)
Meepo screams town to me, whereas yourself and Simoyd have been contributing positively. I'm having trouble reading RC, but I'm reading a lot of 'noise' from Mizzy and Grace in general that my scumdar isn't feeling very well calibrated right now-I think she's more town than the others but if I didn't know that RC was a Titus alt I'd be guessing a Not_Mafia alt (say little, accuse lots). Mizzy went from "you're usually aggressive so what's the problem" post#51 to "[Lycanfire] you're relying a lot on meta" post#82 after your post#78. My original problem with the direction of the game withstanding I'm reconsidering my read. I don't hate or like her.
Grace is interesting. Nearly all of her posts contain a personal element to them. I don't think this is newbtown or newbscum in itself. It's noise and it's complicating my ability to read her until something more solid comes from her.
Pants hasn't posted. I can't get anything besides null from them.
VOTE: Lycan
More later, when I have time- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Can we clarify quickly who Titus and RC are/what hydras are going on in this game?
Accountant's defensiveness is starting to rub me the wrong way. A bit of defensiveness is fine, especially since I do it, but this seems a bit over the top. I have more thoughts but for now I'm going to sleep (still on vacation)- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
I'm definitely uncomfortable with Pants's sudden L-1. There is zero town motivation and 100% scum motivation to do that. If he genuinely miscounted, I guess that's fine (even if not very believable). @Pants why did you not bother to announce L-1?
VOTE: Pants[\vote]
It's one thing to not be active, but another to declare a specific post and not follow up on it. These are good enough reasons to give Pants some scum points out of the gate.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
You should know as an IC that people will make cases on you as town and scum and fypov some of the points may be misreps and maybe even all of them warrant a response. Even if it might not be "NAI", (it's certainly not pro town or IMO good ICing) I don't understand why you would post that last paragraph conclusion and go so far as to force your defense down his throat declaring that he was completely wrong, and his case was horribly misguided. He's a newbie. Don't try to manipulate him by strongarming him into town reading you.In post 126, Accountant wrote:How am I being defensive, IV? Simoyd wrote a post about how I was scum; I responded by writing a post about how I was not. This seems natural.
I have a slight scumread on you for this but I also agree with a lot of the things you say so you're at a null for me. I want to see Pants's belated case and response to my accusation first.
I'm also not liking Grace much lately in this game--she was so full of energy in the beginning and "curious" to learn the game, but has recently done nothing towards finding scum. It's as if she tried to appear townie by generating a lot of easy posts in the beginning to build up her count, and then tapers off when she sees the town doing the same. I feel queasy about this because my early scum attitudes were something along these lines, posting as much as I can when it was easy to get my post count up and then not actually make an effort to find scum when I need to. I do like the unvote on Accountant however, so she remains null/light scum for me.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
You seem to be very confident on Accountant. You're clearly busy, but even just a few sentences explaining why could potentially be very useful. I have my own reasons for being somewhat suspicious of Accountant, but I'm nowhere near as obvscum-Accountant as you.In post 187, RadiantCowbells wrote:I'm waiting for you to get lynched.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
More when I have time, but I really don't like this unvote. RC's screaming "Accountant's scum. Really like him for scum. Like my vote on him. He's scum, but I'm busy, so I won't give reasons, but he's scum." And suddenly, "I'm busy, so I'll unvote for now." I didn't have a problem with his tunneling on Accountant before he made this unvote.In post 222, RadiantCowbells wrote:I'll set aside a block of time before the 20th to tackle this game then.
Taking accountant off L-1 until that time.
UNVOTE:
It wouldn't really do much good to vote RC now since he won't be doing anything until the 20th, but I want to hear from Pants or his replacement soon, since the unannounced L-1 by an SE was a pretty scummy move.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
If you're referring to RC's post, why?In post 230, Postie wrote:Um, that's actually a pretty towny post.
I initially thought RC's unvote was bad but seeing after his explanation on wanting to really try when you replaced in is NAI at best.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Lol, I forgot that you were still tunneling on me. I guess now that I have a bit of time I can respond to your misgivings.
Yeah, sorry not sure why I said extensive meta research, the fact that you were relying on it so much made me subconsciously think that it was extensive research. If you've only looked at one game, that's not enough for meta research no matter how you look at it. I would never trust a meta from just one town game and skimming through more town ISOs; I have no idea why you're literally refusing to look at my scumgames. The other thing is, a lot of people don't have the same playstyle game to game especially since posting is done via feelings at the time, so meta honestly only works if you can average it out and conclude overall that a person has a tendency to do X in towngames, and a tendency to do Y in scumgames. So if you find that I seem different from some random town game you ISO'd, here I'll give you a cookie.In post 106, Lycanfire wrote:You thought my first post was fine, ignore the premise, tunnel heavily on the meta portion to the point of giving me towncred, and then when I dismiss meta as primary motive you suddenly want to make it about metagaming again.
I never claimed "extensive meta research" on you. I claimed 1 town game of yours to 1 town game of Mizzy's, while skimming through your ISOs of other games to save time. I didn't need to compare a scum game to your town game to call your town game out of character here(to which you somewhat agreed). You were behaving more strangely than Mizzy, and that's why you're the one I placed my vote on. The moment you stopped posting was the moment I thought lean scum was too tame, because while waiting others did not cease accusing each other. Scum aren't in a hurry to contribute here if accused as each new post they aren't involved in offers opportunities. So, what about town? It would be in a townie's interest to make a meaningful post ASAP if they were the one being accused.
In a townie's interest to make a meaningful post ASAP if being accused? You were the only one that had a serious vote on me, so I didn't really care. Scum have a bit more incentive to stay alive than town, so quick defensiveness is a slight scumtell at worst or a nulltell at best. I'm not understanding your logic.
Also, longer defense/attack posts like this take longer and more energy, so even if I made a few "meaningless posts", those probably took much less time even combined.In post 118, Lycanfire wrote:
It was. My problem was that between my first post and my post placing him as scum, he didn't make a meaningful one, despite making a few in that time.In post 107, Accountant wrote:I thought #104 was pretty meaningful, Lyc. Is there any other reason why you think IV is suspicious?
Beyond the points in #46/#106, his post #54 I don't find anything else suspicious.
Accountant's defense of me, while slightly odd I agree, was completely right. I didn't need to do any more defense of myself when Accountant had given basically the same defense I would've given, why put in the extra time?In post 130, Lycanfire wrote:Accountant, why defend IV so hard when he had an opportunity to do it himself, gave it up and showed up 36 hours later to try? Popular opinion wasn't against IV. Why should you care more than he did, and what was the rush?- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Bruh how long does it take to read briefly through one or two scum games and get an impression? Probably way less time than it takes to write that post of yours. We're all busy here, no one sits on their computer 3-4 hours every day playing mafiascum. If you actually cared about finding scum and you actually have a scumread on me, investigate further into me and maybe you'll get another conclusion from my scumgame.In post 260, Lycanfire wrote:I work full time in retail performing several different jobs and make my posts as I eat or have my breaks. Why do you think you're worth true extensive meta research spanning scumgame vs town game vs town game instead of the only relevant analysis-towngame vs towngame of two different people when choosing to make my vote?
"it was good enough to keep my vote on you" I really don't like this statement. It's like you're refusing to take a few minutes to actually look for something that could be further evidence for your top scumread, and going like "OKAY, you're scummy enough for me". This is not a town-mindset, no matter how burdened you are. But looking at your postcount and the fact that you have taken the time to defend yourself using such defense shows that you clearly have enough time.It was good enough to give me responses that have made me choose to keep my vote on you.
I'm pretty sure I've already said this, but if most townies really thought someone was scum and they had meta at their disposal, we wouldn't just look at one side of the coin and come to a conclusion. You simply can't note someone scum for deviating from the one or two towngames you skimmed of them. I'm sorry, you just can't.
I was going to do it anyway.You're really going to have to deal with it, or re-vote me if it's suspect.
VOTE: Lycanfire
This is just wrong. I've already explained why.Lycanfire wrote:Scum don't have incentive to post while pressured, obv
It was rather odd that he took time to defend me, that's what I mean by odd, but the content was correct. I was on vacation so unofficially V/LA, but I don't need to declare that since I figured I could probably post once every two days. And yes, I was burnt out from my last game and I didn't post for a bit. Why you're scumreading me for not immediately jumping to my defense is ridiculous at best.Lycanfire wrote:Odd? Accountant said you were V/LA when you weren't tagged as V/LA. You gave some response about being burned out from your last game and left. Accountant's defense of you was flaccid, and I didn't start questioning it until Simoyd wanted to interrogate Accountant-I let him slide as going for him wasn't going to make you post, allowing him to pressure Mizzy was going to tell me more of his character. I wasn't about to derail that when my focus has decided to go MIA.
Still waiting on Pants to come back and actually post something.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Okay, I admit I am getting a bit tunnelly this game on Lycan/Pants/etc, so I'm going to figure out where I stand on my reads. My current reads list:
Town
Simoyd
Town-leaning
Harkonnen/Meepo (Both somewhat townie)
Null
RC
Grace
Mizzy/Postie (Postie is townier than Mizzy, which averages to null)
Scum-leaning
Accountant
Scum
Pants
Lycanfire
I have never had such an even distribution of reads before. What is this- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Wow, what a bad, bad post.
Yes, I am "passing the same posts back and forth", but somehow you have still managed to not realize why I'm not happy with you. I don't give a jackfuck that you pressured me over Mizzy. I don't care about Mizzy; in fact I don't think I've mentioned Mizzy at all in regards to this. Why was he even mentioned? I don't understand why I have to explain the fact over and over again that your meta on me is insincere and not town-motivated, since you have the time to write all of these random posts but can't take two seconds to skim through a scumgame or two of mine.In post 266, Lycanfire wrote:Complaining about meta that I pressured you over Mizzy is a distraction. I chose you because you were more disappointing. You continued to disappoint me, so my vote has stayed in lack of obvious scum. Flailing around talking about meta doesn't help your case, it only shows that you want to pass the same posts back and forth.
They're all plausible. Trying to divine the scumteam from Day 1 never works, I'd estimate it's wrong at least 95% of the time. I don't even think about scumteams until Day 2, when two flips have happened and people actually decide which wagon they're sticking with. One scum at a time. If you're town somehow, don't get ahead of yourself, I promise it doesn't work. We're not even at the end of d1—early game interactions don't mean anything because they can easily be reversed before the end of the day deadline.Next, your list of Pants/Myself/Accountant as likely scum is so incredibly flawed. Of the different possible scum teams, the only one that could plausibly be true is Myself/Accountant. But if this is the case why is Pants there?
I don't get why people think defending someone else early in Day 1 points to a scumteam between them. That's one tell I'll never understand, much less agree with. No one gives a fuck what happens in early/mid D1 in terms of interactions. If this dynamic were to continue well into D2, fine, that's noteworthy.
They're ALL SCUMMY. That's why they're there. What a concept.
Again. You're not even reading my posts . I've said my reasoning for my Pants scumread at least twice. I'm not repeating it again.Is Pants on there for being universally disliked from promising twice to make a post that never appeared? Is he there because the deadline is/was supposedly the 18th (prior to replacements)?
I never claimed Pants to be the best lynch choice, I'm not even sure why this block of text is here. Enlighten me.Is Pants your best lynch choice?
I'll flat out say right now: Pants is not the best choice. That's why I was disappointed with Accountant's answer: he could have said RC was just as likely, or that they were the scumteam, that one was more likely than the other sure, but what I asked was if Pants was the best lynch candidate. This means yes or no, not "yes if not him then other person". I don't know if that's 50/50 or 80/20 or in favor or who.
Simply, Pants is not the best lynch because it doesn't give us clues as to who his partner is. For Accountant moreso-that's why I said it was important and asked him, rather than anyone else. In my opinion, if Pants flips scum Accountant is town. I think this is a safe assumption. For the rest of us, we won't have much clue as to who their partner is based on their posts, but we will know two things-we are town, and Accountant is very likely town as well. Accountant does not get this luxury-if town, they would only know one person is town and has less scumhunting to work with tomorrow.Therefore, there is no scumhunting Accountant can do tomorrow that he cannot do today..
WHY DO YOU NOT READ WHAT I WRITE? Did you just not see posts 104, 248, or 261? I've explained why you're scum multiple times. Hey, let's add cursory reading/bullshit posting/misreps to the mix!If I'm your vote target why am I scum? Why should I be lynched? Make your case, because I'm not going to sit on my hands waiting for deadline so we can lynch Pants. Convince me that you're in this too.
VOTE: Lycanfire
In case it wasn't already clear.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Are you capable of typing two or more lines of text
I mean it's not even like you're a shitconfused newb, you're an SE who's played this before
I can't figure out what you're saying by this post, decrypt it for me plz?Lycanfire wrote:You're still ignoring my tell I pointed out in my first post. If you called my premise silly rather than complain all game I would have unvoted you ages ago.
Okay sure, well if you read my responses I've basically responded to that.Lycanfire wrote:Secondly, I wasn't claiming that you believed Pants was the best lynch-I was claiming your three choices were suspect due to his inclusion on your list for two separate reasons. I questioned why you were voting me at all if you were going to defend rather than attack all game with the conclusion that Pants may be on your list because he is convenient.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Postie while you're here can you explain to me this?
Why was RC's unvote post townie, if he'd been tunneling Accountant all game? I find it null at best, after he explained he did it because you replaced in.In post 230, Postie wrote:Um, that's actually a pretty towny post.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
No. We're not doing this for the very reasons Lycan suggested. I hate to admit it, but he's right on that part. tl;dr Pants's flip tells us nothing.
We are running out time. More votes on Lycan plz
Or Accountant if need be- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
I've made my case on Lycan multiple times; I really don't want to do it again, but you want, I can.In post 312, Postie wrote:
Why?In post 311, innocentvillager wrote:Okay, the scumteam is very likely Lycan/snoe.
Pants's L-1 vote was horrible and way too scummy for an SE.
Snoe is doing a great job of appearing town, but it looks fake.
Okay, IMO this is just him begging to be townread. If this isn't fake I don't know what is. It's basically posting useless shit and going like "I know I'm posting useless shit but plz don't scumread me for it." Doesn't change the fact that the notes are entirely for show and an effort to be more transparently town. Whenever people clearly try to look town and go out of their way to provide transparency in their "thoughts", that rings alarm bells for me. Natural vs forced towntelling--this reeks of the latter.In post 310, snoe wrote:Finally, here are my notes on reading through the game. They are long - sorry. But I think it’s worth posting them because …
1) One of the few benefits of getting a replacement player is getting a new set of eyes looking at the game. Might help?
2) I need to give you all SOMETHING with which to read my slot. Pants, bless him … didn’t.
3) I usually phone post (meaning I don’t do giant formatted posts like this often) - would like to have this available when I’m on my phone.
Also, from my experience scum love to do shit like this, where you're trying to make it look like you're helping town but you're really not helping town.
Don't believe me? Let's look at his notes. Most of the notes are just summaries of random posts that are COMPLETELY NAI. Why write so much summary text, if most of it is just going to be NAI? More scumpoints for attempting to look useful without being useful. I could quote them all but there's way too many for me to quote--if you really want me to quote more, I can. But honestly just read through it and JUST TRY and tell me that 90% of his "notes" don't contribute nothing to reads, are completely NAI, useless, you get it.
Okay, so the only way I see any of this as town is that he felt the need to take comprehensive notes, so he must've written these notes first and then drawn his reads from looking at these notes, right? But he doesn't even do that. Take his read on Mizzy, for example:
He does explain 30, 81, and 82 in the notes, but where is 51?? He makes no real mention of 51 in his notes. So where did that scumread come from? These clearly aren't comprehensive notes, which alone proves that he didn't just take extensive notes, and then draw reads from that. So what's the alternative? Well, in my mind there are a couple of possibilities. He insincerely bullshitted some notes, and maybe took some reads from those notes but also looked back at the thread for a lot of analysis. But if he had to look back at the thread, why take the notes in the first place?? That defeats the purpose of the notes. If he can't even use his own notes effectively to make his reads, how does that make his notes OR reads genuine? The other main possibility is that he wrote the reads concurrently with the notes. This would make it less scummish than the first scenario, but it's still not good, since then there is still really no point in writing the notes in the first place. Finally, the last possibility is that he wrote the reads first. This is the scummiest of all, and if this one is true, he needs to be autolynched. In any of the three cases, they read fake, fake, effort to appear town, fake, etc.In post 310, snoe wrote:Especially posts 30 & 51 in early game; sheeping Acct in 81 & 82.
The notes themselves just give me a huge scumvibe. There's so many accusations and random "I like this post!"s just being thrown around with no weight. As scum, I notice people when they make scummy posts, because I'm really making an effort to look for them. I'm thinking, I know everyone here is town, so every post seems extra towny. The moment I see something not townie, I point it out, so I can come up with an excuse to find people scummy. But that's all it ever is: accusations that die. There's no life to his accusations, no desire to look more into these conflicts, only listing them as conflicts. He picks the one scumread he had for the 3 pages or so since that happens to be the easiest, safest choice without stirring up conflict especially since Mizzy was a) pretty widely accused but more importantly b) has literally replaced out, so there's no one to take the blame. He doesn't even attack Postie at all, just Mizzy for like 3 posts that weren't even that bad. So he's done all this "analysis" where he's throwing scumreads everywhere in his notes, tries to stay impartial to the major conflicts going on but just lists them as "conflicted". This right here, while maybe a bit intangible, is a big deal breaker for me.
As far as snoe and Lycan being a scumteam together, I initially thought I saw snoe subtly buddying Lycan, despite listing him under "Conflicted" which was a huge association tell for me (SUBTLE buddying is an association tell, HARD buddying is NI). But I realized while reading through this that he's done this to all four players listed under "Conflicted". I can only conclude that it is likely one of these four players is the scumbuddy, and it's obviously not me, so Lycan/Accountant/RC. I can't read RC, Accountant is kind of scummy, but Lycan is the worst of the three so it seems logical that Lycan/snoe are a scumteam.
Addressing various posts:
So he says this.In post 310, snoe wrote:Good response from IV in #27 questioning the whole dialogue
But then says this. He agreed with me that it was good to question the dialogue, but he finds it fake when I complain about the noise level?? In what world does that make sense?In post 310, snoe wrote: 51: Mizz pushes IV on not scum hunting yet; IV complains about the “noise” level in the game; IV’s response bugs me as fake:In post 52, innocentvillager wrote:Yeah but it was just so much so fast and sometimes games like this have a lot of noise that makes it annoying to read. It's foreshadowing that this is going to be an extremely long game, which I don't really like.
I'm like goldilocks and the three bitches. Too much activity and I sit back and skim like a bitch, too little activity and I'll fill the thread with bullshit, otherwise it's just right
What SE still uses OMGUS as a scumtell? This is a tell that maybe a beginner mafia player would use.snoe wrote:262: IV posts reads. The scum read on Lycan strikes me as OMGUS.
But even so, this has nothing to do with OMGUS. I had been scumreading Lycan for most of the game, and I gave reasons for my scumread and voted Lycan before I made that reads post. You admit yourself that Lycan's initial case on me was asinine and a stretch.
I never disrespected the life of a retail worker. I've worked a couple jobs at the same time before, and it sucks. But while Lycan claims he's so busy, his post count and posting frequency would disagree with that. You can't deny that Lycan has been posting a fair amount, so no matter how busy he is, he clearly could have taken time to briefly read a scumgame of mine instead of post once or twice in the thread. It REALLY does not take that long, and should be what a townie would do if he's so intent on me being scum.In post 310, snoe wrote:261: IV disrespects the life of a retail worker. This is so wrong: “Bruh how long does it take to read briefly through one or two scum games and get an impression? Probably way less time than it takes to write that post of yours. “- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
You're not missing anything, you are correct. They (Lycan and snoe, the scumteam) are incorrect.In post 315, Simoyd wrote:"Scum don't have incentive to post while pressured, obv"
^ Can someone explain this to me. I guess I'm missing the obvious but wouldn't scum be more motivated to defend themselves because they have more to lose from dying? Even in this game people have commented that forced or excessive defending is a scum tell. How is the opposite (not posting, so not defending) also a scum tell??- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
In post 306, Lycanfire wrote:
Sure... I considered you or Mizzy as directing attention towards Meepo/Accountant/Grace for no reason. Mizzy offered a lot more and seemed well enough in line with her usual play. You left a question that was already answered twice and it seemed clear to me that you were happy if people kept talking about useless things. At this point, the IC was busy ripping into a newbie and another newbie had no idea what was going on. It's fine if they wanted to have a go at one another, but others needed to drag more people in this. I stepped up to the plate and chose you.In post 282, innocentvillager wrote:I can't figure out what you're saying by this post, decrypt it for me plz?
If you're referring to the question answered twice, are you seriously still scumreading me for my "wtf are you guy srs" post or whatever? I already clarified what I meant by that, and it wasn't the same meaning as the previous questions asked. READ. MY. POSTS.
Happy if people kept talking about useless things? I made a whole post where I told people to STOP posting useless things! Why don't you read my posts?
where. because i really, really need to see this rebuttal.In post 282, innocentvillager wrote:Okay sure, well if you read my responses I've basically responded to that.ARE YOU SERIOUS? WHY DON'T YOU READ WHAT I WRITE?? Did 267 just not exist?? Do you only choose to read/respond to the things that benefit you?
I'm so done trying to converse with you. I don't understand how you can't scumread Lycan at this point. Misrepping, not reading posts, insincere meta, tunneling, stretchy reasoning, insincere scumhunting, etc, etc, etc.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Okay peoplz we have 3.5 days left. We need to start forming a wagon, or we're not going to have enough time to make an informed lynch and/or we'll get a PR claim that will confuse the shit out of everyone and the lynch will go to shit. It takes time for people to agree, and only scum benefit from the chaos. With the number of people not actually making substantive posts lately, this is likely to happen.
I want to lynch snoe or Lycan. I am fine with either one. I would prefer Lycan since snoe still hasn't been in the game very long and his flip wouldn't give many association tells, but I am still more than fine with snoe.
I'm baffled at why Lycan is not getting shitstormed by you guys. Can just one of you, even one of you just be like "hey IV, your case is full of shit and here's why: *makes intelligent case on why IV is full of shit and Lycan is not scum* ". If not, I don't see why you're not voting Lycan.
VOTE: Lycan- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Great, thank you. I'd love to hear the reasoning.In post 322, RadiantCowbells wrote:I don't particularly like your Lycan case.
In post 310, snoe wrote:260: Lycan continues on IV. I think Lycan is tunneling here, but it may be townish tunneling. Lycan says “Scum don't have incentive to post while pressured, obv”, which is true but ignores that IV may be as busy as Lycan is.
More scumpoints for lying and self-contradiction.snoe wrote:
Simoyd, can you give context for the quote? I'm not sure who said it. I'm pretty sure it wasn't me, but it could've been.In post 315, Simoyd wrote:"Scum don't have incentive to post while pressured, obv"
^ Can someone explain this to me. I guess I'm missing the obvious but wouldn't scum be more motivated to defend themselves because they have more to lose from dying? Even in this game people have commented that forced or excessive defending is a scum tell. How is the opposite (not posting, so not defending) also a scum tell??
(As to the point - I guess scum have more to lose and hence a greater incentive to defend themselves in this setup, but every townie KNOWS they're town and knows nothing else. It makes sense for them to defend themselves too. Did I miss your point?)- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
I want to apologize for the hostile tone and caps lock, as I got a little emotional, but my frustration remains. I've considered the possibility that I'm confbias tunneling on you, but I've come back time and again in calm states and still think you're likely scum.In post 317, innocentvillager wrote:In post 306, Lycanfire wrote:
Sure... I considered you or Mizzy as directing attention towards Meepo/Accountant/Grace for no reason. Mizzy offered a lot more and seemed well enough in line with her usual play. You left a question that was already answered twice and it seemed clear to me that you were happy if people kept talking about useless things. At this point, the IC was busy ripping into a newbie and another newbie had no idea what was going on. It's fine if they wanted to have a go at one another, but others needed to drag more people in this. I stepped up to the plate and chose you.In post 282, innocentvillager wrote:I can't figure out what you're saying by this post, decrypt it for me plz?
If you're referring to the question answered twice, are you seriously still scumreading me for my "wtf are you guy srs" post or whatever? I already clarified what I meant by that, and it wasn't the same meaning as the previous questions asked. READ. MY. POSTS.
Happy if people kept talking about useless things? I made a whole post where I told people to STOP posting useless things! Why don't you read my posts?
where. because i really, really need to see this rebuttal.In post 282, innocentvillager wrote:Okay sure, well if you read my responses I've basically responded to that.ARE YOU SERIOUS? WHY DON'T YOU READ WHAT I WRITE?? Did 267 just not exist?? Do you only choose to read/respond to the things that benefit you?
I'm so done trying to converse with you. I don't understand how you can't scumread Lycan at this point. Misrepping, not reading posts, insincere meta, tunneling, stretchy reasoning, insincere scumhunting, etc, etc, etc.
I did a brief meta of snoe, and what I got from it was basically nothing, since he didn't replace into either of the games and never gave a PbPA in either. I'll probably take another deeper look when I have more time, but let me know what you find.Postie wrote:Not sure. His catch-up seems very safe, so I can't make much of it. I'll do a metadive to see if he's usually like that.
P-EDIT:
Yes you said that, but you still clearly contradicted yourself. You're still saying that scum have a greater incentive to defend themselves, and only that "it makes for townies to defend themselves as well". This clearly shows that you think scum have more incentive to post while pressured, yet you agree with Lycan's "Scum don't have incentive to post when pressured, obv" statement.snoe wrote:Maybe you missed the last clause of the sentence:
In post 323, snoe wrote:but every townie KNOWS they're town and knows nothing else. It makes sense for them to defend themselves too. Did I miss your point?)
The fact that you contradicted yourself isn't even that scummy (although it definitely is), but your refusal to admit that you messed up makes it worse.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
I LMFAO'D I FELT THE SAME WAYIn post 376, Simoyd wrote:Additionally in 269 you say "I questioned why you were voting me at all if you were going to defend rather than attack all game". I've read it a dozen times, what does that mean?
Okay, what does THIS mean? Missing the meat of 92? I'm not sure what this is referring to, or why this is relevant. Why are you quoting those posts?
I'm not sure how those are mutually exclusive. Accountant was feeling rather nullish at the beginning, despite being a bit defensive. That has nothing to do with the game state. In less than 2-3 hours or so, the game already moved onto arguments on page 2. That's unusual, and there was a lot of noise, which made it annoying. I explained this in one of my posts, but that was a while ago so whatever. I'm just confused on why you're bringing this up NOW, instead of a long time ago—this wasn't even that relevant of a discussion to be brought up again.
So Pants I voted to get him to produce content and for his scummy unannounced L-1 vote. When it became clear that he was not going to post, I redirected my attention towards other people. My scumread on him was always there, and now that snoe's replaced in and made that slot even scummier, it's definitely still there.Simoyd wrote: You seem to be undecided on pants and RC votes. Not liking RC for the unvote in 229 then recanting in 239. Same with pants, hating the L-1 in 146, then moving away in 291. Now for pants, there's a good reason I think. But I'm curious what caused you to be okay with your previous RC hate, as no real explaination was provided? Or do you still lean scum on RC? This waffling around gives me a slight scum read too. Wondering if you're just feeling the crowd to see what's safe.
As for RC, I scumread his post initially since I didn't see any town motivation that he would release his tunnel/pressure vote. RC later explained he unvoted b/c Postie replaced in so he wanted to really make sure he was playing his best, which I buy because that sounds reasonable. That made it NAI for me, so I stopped scumreading RC for that. Make sure to read the surrounding posts before you accuse, I'm basically just regurgitating the next few posts after my unvote in 229.
Wait what? I never said that phrase, Lycan did, and that was before I posted. I was talking about how the noise of the game was affecting my ability to read people and was also breeding apathy.Simoyd wrote:IV
Pretty early in the game 52 you're talking about manipulating the pace of the game. Not a big fan of this.
More coming a bit later.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
You're welcome. You can flail all you want.In post 388, snoe wrote:I'll respond to IV's wall tomorrow. Looks like a wall o' bullshit to me, but I'll try. Thanks for the tissues, by the way.
Also, I'm not posting in this thread until tomorrow night late maybe. Hopefully when I come back a substantial wagon will have formed on Lycan or snoe.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Before I write my catch up post:
Okay, if thjs isn't a scumslip, I don't know what is.In post 393, Lycanfire wrote:because I know I'm town and you don't
VOTE: Lycanfire
I'm not moving my vote for the rest of day unless I hear something damn fucking good.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Really? If he's town, how would he know that I don't know that he's town? He didn't scumread or townread me really at the end of his post. This is slipping that he knows I'm town.In post 465, RadiantCowbells wrote:that's not a scumslip?- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Explain please.In post 469, Titus wrote:
That's not a slip unless he claimed to scumread you.In post 466, innocentvillager wrote:
Really? If he's town, how would he know that I don't know that he's town? He didn't scumread or townread me really at the end of his post. This is slipping that he knows I'm town.In post 465, RadiantCowbells wrote:that's not a scumslip?
Also I know you just replaced in, but he's been scumreading/tunneling on me basically this entire game, and only in that post did he finally put me at null.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
We've clearly both been tunneling on each other. Maybe me more so than him, but he was definitely quick to put me at the top of his scumlist and that didn't change until very recently.In post 472, Simoyd wrote:
I think you've been tunneling on him, not him on you.In post 470, innocentvillager wrote:but he's been scumreading/tunneling on me basically this entire game- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
I've read this like 10 times and I'm struggling to understand how it refutes my argument.In post 473, Titus wrote:It means he'sconsistentlycompletely open about you being town regardless of who was tunnelling whom.
I've thought about it over some more, and I think I kind of get your point, but I'm still not sold on loosening "rope".
So we agree that if he's scumreading me at post time, it's a scumslip because if he was town, he would be very suspicious of me and should post with the mindset that I'm probably scum, and therefore claiming that I don't know that he's town is scummy.
We also agree that if he's townreading me at post time, it's not a scumslip because he's posting with the mindset that I'm town, and subconsciously assuming so is understandable. I would argue that it's still a bit of a scumtell because accidental surety is scummy (unless he was 100% townreading me). So far so good, right?
Then comes the case where I'm somewhere in-between, which is what this is and clearly what we're disagreeing on. I realize confbias might be getting in my way to call this accurately, but I still think this is at least a major scumtell. He was just very suspicious of me for the past 12 or so IRL days, and now I'm suddenly at nullish. He's clearly still suspicious of me, even if not as much as before. To subconsciously post with the mindset that I am town is contradictory, and shows scum-motivation for the same reason that it would if he was scumreading me. If not a scumslip, at least a major scumtell.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Okay, that's actually a good point. Fine, I'll agree that it's not a slip or a major scum tell. I still get a bad vibe from it due to the surety.In post 477, Titus wrote:No. To shift from scum to null suggests an implicit considering of you as town.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Honestly I think this circleshitting session between Postie Titus RC and Accountant can happen on d2. I'd much rather get Lycan/Blank today.
Blank doesn't give major scumvibes necessarily, but definitely has not been towntelling. His reads aren't as scummy as much as they are bizarre.
I'm willing to lynch him based on the horribad scumminess of Pants/snoe.
Intent to hammer- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Postie, you were very recently all for lynching Blank. What happened?
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Sorry, I was actually just about to talk about that before you posted and then my computer froze on me so I lost my post.
Yeah, I read RC's case. Some of it I agree with, and the logic behind the case in general makes sense. A lot of it I don't know because most of it is still meta-shitting. Now, you and RC and maybe Titus can all speak to that since you've played with Accountant and stuff, fine. But you and RC can't expect to get others to just sheep you if RC's just assuming all these things about what town!Accountant would do or wouldn't do when there's no easy way to verify that.
That said, I'm leaning scum on Accountant, definitely more so after RC's case. But I like the snoe/Lycan scumteam a lot better, and I can reasonably entertain the possibility of a town!Accountant in this game. With snoe and Lycan I'm struggling to see them as anything but scum.
Um, yes I can? What kind of strongarming appeal to authority attitude is that? Off your high horses please. Just because RC finally comes out with his SOLE well-reasoned post this entire game doesn't mean I HAVE to read it and respond to it before making a vote. I'm disappointed by this part of your post.You don't get to just skip over it and then state intent on another player.
How about "IV, have you read RC's case? If not, read it. Otherwise, explain why you're not voting Accountant." Not too hard, right?- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
These suggest it:In post 633, Titus wrote:
Where was Postie in favor of lynching Blank?In post 630, innocentvillager wrote:Postie, you were very recently all for lynching Blank. What happened?
In post 418, Postie wrote:*shrug* As long as we lynch all of Accountant/Lycan/snoe at some point we should be good.In post 427, Postie wrote:If we kill Accountant we can just kill snoe the day after though...
Looks like Postie obviously wants Accountant over BlankFace at least for today, but I don't see why she would get so upset if we lynched Blankface instead on d1. He's in her scumpool. IMO Postie overreacted.In post 443, Postie wrote:Yeah, I'm good with lynching BlankFace after Accountant. Those reads are awful.
I'm almost leaning scum on Postie, but at the same time I already have 3 scumreads which is a problem so I'll give her the benefit of the doubt for now.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Postie, where does this come from? You already knew at this point Titus is willing to lynch Blank right now, especially when she put Blank at L-1. So I'm not understanding why this quote suddenly makes Titus much more of a scumcandidate.
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Ah okay, sorry I interpreted your comment differently lol. I get that.In post 644, Postie wrote:Sorry if I came across as harsh. It's just bad form to state intent on a player without addressing or even acknowledging the disagreements people have just brought up about your choice of lynch.
Stats on RC reading Accountant correctly/incorrectly?In post 644, Postie wrote:And the meta stuff is pretty credible given RC's track record when it comes to reading Accountant. That's not really something you can just ignore or heavily downplay because you haven't played with Accountant before yourself (I haven't either).- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
100% from how many games..?
2 for 2 is pretty different from 10 for 10, for example.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Okay, let's use math to figure out how good RC is at reading Accountant lolIn post 657, RadiantCowbells wrote:4 / 4
Probabilistically (approximations)
1/4 chance Accountant is scum, 3/4 chance of town
I'm guessing 2 scum (saw 2 scumgames of Accountant) and 2 town.
Random chance would say (1/4)*(1/4)*(3/4)*(3/4) = 3.5% chance of calling alignment correctly every time
Hm, that's pretty good. Okay, I'll buy you on your meta provided that you aren't scum, which I'm estimating to be below a 10% chance at this point.
I still want Blank lynched, but I'm game for an Accountant lynch too I guess if Blank's lynch isn't going anywhere. This is a bit troubling, since at least one of Lycan/Blank/Accountant are going to flip town, but I have a good feeling the scumteam is in there.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Why not?Harkonnen97 wrote:These numbers make no sense IV lol
In post 659, RadiantCowbells wrote:Just tell me if you're a diagonal PR (Tracker/JK/Cop) you will check Titus tonight if this is a scum flip, not one of those 3.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
If town completely randomly determined who to kill, town would win roughly 35-55% of the time.In post 662, Harkonnen97 wrote:RC didn't just randomly guess Accountant's role in all of those games. I doubt that he just said "Accountant is scum!" and was right about it. He used logic and read him.
This isn't about numbers, it's about .... I don't know the word in English
Town, in this setup, wins 48.9% of the time. Generally, it's pretty close to 50-50, in an effort to make it balanced for both factions.
My point is, reads do not make it THAT much more likely for town to win versus random chance. It will of course, help, but not substantially. The probability that RC predicts Accountant's role correctly in all 4 games where Accountant was scum twice and town twice is 3.5% based on random chance. That's about 1 in 30. Reading might theoretically push these odds up to 1 in 15 max, but the fact that RC can pull off a 3.5% chance read on someone is clearly indicative of something mathematically significant, you can't deny that. How could this manifest? Most likely, he has some sort of system for reading Accountant that has worked.
Was he just lucky? Could've been. 1/30 odds, if we're not to believe that RC is a good scumhunter at all. But mafia itself is a game of probabilities. I'm willing to weigh such odds in my decision to further scumread Accountant.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
I still want Blank gone, but it doesn't look like we're going to be able to decide on Blank with the little time we have.In post 663, Simoyd wrote:so vote accountant then IV
VOTE: Accountant
I believe that's L-1.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
If we do end up lynching Accountant, Blank/Lycan need to die tomorrow REGARDLESS of the flip.
Lucky you, you might get another 2 weeks to cure your hangover and craft your scummish prose.BlankFace wrote: I'm also incredibly drunk right now, I'll finish it tomorrow morning. But if you can't read between the lines and see my focus is right now, with how far I've analyzed, I'd have to say you aren't reading the posts I make that are actually meaningful.
HoS[\b] IV&Titus for that L-1 and intent before I'm even caught up fully.
What's a HoS??
We're out of time. If we get a PR claim, we need to be able to account for that before we hammer. No last minute PR claims and wagon shifting. We don't have time to wait for you to catch up.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Stop with what? I did what you wanted, with the L-1. I just hope you're right. I've already accepted to place my faith in your empirical successes.In post 670, RadiantCowbells wrote:IV stop.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Not game related but are you seriously really awkwardly trying to hit on Postie.... this post makes me so uncomfortable lol.
Okay, I think this is fair. If we trust that RC has scum pegged this time and Accountant flips scum, I think diagonal PR should listen to him. I'm fine with this form of sheeping since RC establishes prior credibility by leading lynch on a confirmed scum, instead of just appealing to authority. And of course, if Accountant flips town, then RC's credibility plummets, so PRs can do whatever they want.RadiantCowbells wrote:Here's what's going to happen.
If this flips town all PRs can do whatever.
If it flips scum I am going to assume that diagonal PR is auto targetting Titus.
That means if you flip later and haven't claimed we are taking Titus as confirmed town.
Just do it, please.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
I don't know. This is the next best alternative.In post 674, Accountant wrote:Why is Blank not six feet under yet?
Yes. Like I explained, 4/4 is pretty damn good, especially if 2 of those are scumgames.Also, are you guys seriously wanting to lynch me because RC has a perfect record of reading my alignment?- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
In post 665, Simoyd wrote:We're don't have a whole lot of time left. And people tend to go awol on weekends... We should really put accountant at L-1 asap
8 Pages without doing anything? LMAO nice try. I was on vacation, like you mentioned, but I still made 12 posts in those 8 pages. At least half of those were substantive and contributed to the game. I voiced multiple quick opinions. Did you even read, or are you just grasping at straws to justify your OMGUS on me?In post 678, BlankFace wrote:I want to lynch you because of pages 5-10. If you have an issue with what I've said, respond to it.
IV, HoS is a step above FoS. It means trying to hammer someone who isn't caught up 100% is scummy as shit. We have 2 days, calm the fuck down and hold your horses. And you'll be lucky if I am hung over tomorrow, you got by for eight pages without doing anything. Don't think I didn't take note of that. Vacation or not, it's not hard to voice a quick opinion.
You're overreacting. My intent on you was not scummy as shit at all. I had a huge scumread on snoe, had a decent scumread on Pants, and nothing about you was making me feel anything better about your slot, so why should I wait for you to catch up when you're all hungover and we have less than 2 days left?
And yes, believe it or not, 2 days is not a lot of time. People don't just magically appear online all at once. We'll also need someone to claim before we lynch them. If they claim VT, fine, get them, whatever, unless they start spewing obvtown in their last writhing moments. If they claim PR, we need to accomodate time for that to go through, make sure everyone has had a chance to cc, before finding a WHOLE new wagon, and asking them to claim, etc, etc. I've been through bad shit like this before, and we've made terrible d1 lynches from that and/or outed more roles than necessary. We need that "just in case" time.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
Nope, just checked you're at at L-1.In post 679, Accountant wrote:
Uh? Unless the vote count is screwed up I'm at L-2.In post 675, RadiantCowbells wrote:That seems like a fairly strong reason to want to lynch you.
Claim.- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
- innocentvillager
-
innocentvillager Jack of All Trades
- innocentvillager
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9430
- Joined: March 12, 2012
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager
- innocentvillager