Newbie 1752: Wave - Game Over

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Drone

[Raskolnikov]

Unvote cloud from l-1, we aren't having a claim this early.

[Raskolnikov]

TKD town
Cloud probably town

Need info but should be easy

Blake ?t
Hellfire ?t
Desmond

Difficult sorts

Tenshii
Drone
BBT

[Raskolnikov]

Okay so, we have some very fresh players. PSA, if anyone hammers this early into the day you will be lynched tomorrow on policy.

Theorytalk! IC usually does this but BBT is busy doing whatever those italians do in their free time.

Why lynching very early in a day is bad

Town wins via communication and information, the more the better. You need a certain minimum to be able to analyse and find patterns. If a day ends too quickly you usually can't get much out of it next day.
Even if a person is scum it's bad to rush their lynch, as you're denying scum the opportunity to make associative tells. In other words, how people react to the wagon of a scum is important, as you may find the partner through this. So you want to give everyone the chance to react to a wagon as well.
But particularly it's on the chance that a person is town that you want to give them the opportunity to change people's minds and prevent their lynch.

That doesn't mean playing every day to deadline though. Just a solid few days minimum, a respectable level of back-and-forth discussion, and a basic stance/viewpoint on the wagon (and if against the wagon, who the alternative they would prefer to lynch is) given/made public by every player is good. Typically day 1 has a few wagons and a lot of people doing different things until people get finally tired and consolidate on one, which has the most support.

There's also roles and claims which is complicated, but another reason against early lynching. The tl;dr of it is you should never hammer someone without getting their roleclaim.

[Raskolnikov]

lol...

[Raskolnikov]

->tenshii prob town and pr

why would you out this though if you're town...

[Raskolnikov]

Think I like blake for his paranoia on me and bbt.

Another PSA, it's bad to discuss out loud if you think someone is a power role because you don't want that information being public. In general you don't want that to be a topic of discussion; you want them safe and secret to be able to survive to as late in the game as possible.

[Raskolnikov]

Seriously i fought out and hard about outing pr reads, i stil think its not scummy by essence. It gives information to town and if im worng, pr reads that turns out to be non-pr are like 80% mafia

You say that, but one day you'll get a cop killed n1 and ruin a game that way. Not every setup even has a protective.

Unfortunately it sounds like you're town after all since you're arguing with me over that point.

Also, if I die. A word of advice for people who think "mafia would never hammer it's too risky!". My very first newbie game. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=64538
Hammered page 2 by someone playing the "I'm new it was a mistake I'm so sorry!" card, they were scum and no one punished them, they survived all the way to the end and won the game.

[Raskolnikov]

Hell fire is 1 mafia, the last 1/3 scum pool is tenshii, BBT and Desmond

Pretty much my thoughts.

[Raskolnikov]

Blake, cloud's essentially already dead, he's been hammered by hellfire.

[Raskolnikov]

Lol I didn't actually check the count
VOTE: hellfire

[Raskolnikov]

Huh. Apparently I missed people saying it was l-2. I might have been the only one to think it was l-1.

[Raskolnikov]

@Drone
His thinking on PR makes partial sense even though I don't agree with his conclusion on outing it. It's his statement that pr-reads that aren't actually pr are usually scum; it's because pr and scum actually have a few things in common. That part I can confirm from my own experiences at least, so him outing a read as "either pr or scum" I could see as a real perspective. Still bad though.

[Raskolnikov]

Are you asking cloud if hellfire is bussing HIM?

[Raskolnikov]

I like, explicitly made a giant post outlining why it's a terrible idea to quickhammer and especially the danger of doing it without claim, and right after you voted assuming it was a hammer.

[Raskolnikov]

You even admitted you didn't know whether it was hammer or not. WHY vote there if you don't know for sure what it is?

[Raskolnikov]

1. I say why quickhammer is bad (a. ends day too early, b. he didn't claim -> you could have lynched a power role)
2. You then vote him, not knowing if it's hammer or not

???????

[Raskolnikov]

Where did you hear about mafia?

[Raskolnikov]

The problematic thing is he's not even seeming to recognize that he did anything wrong or is guilty despite everything...
Usually mafia at least kind of "know" why they're getting lynched because they're aware it comes with being mafia and think about it all game.

[Raskolnikov]

Think he's pretty young too.

[Raskolnikov]

Desmond, what are you thoughts on his alignment through this?

[Raskolnikov]

I didn't vote you yet, but I might missile. While you're right that Cloud's posting pattern is inconsistent, he begs for us to give him a shot. I've decided to do so. I AM going to lynch him if you flip town though.

Holy shit

VOTE: Drone

[Raskolnikov]

Right so, hellfire's vote was atrocious but his response to the pressure is different from what I usually see from scum.
Furthermore it's too early to end the day; BBT said nothing yet (and he's potentially the most dangerous player here), drone with intent bothers me, and we can still return later if necessary. If he's scum he'll scumtell again.

[Raskolnikov]

Intent to Hammer

I didn't vote you yet, but I might missile. While you're right that Cloud's posting pattern is inconsistent, he begs for us to give him a shot. I've decided to do so.

I AM going to lynch him if you flip town though.

Drone is getting ready to hammer hellfire and saying he'll lynch cloud if hellfire flips town.

Drone put hellfire to intent pretty easily, so one would assume he doesn't doubt that hellfire is scum. But this statement reveals his mind is thinking about that, in the wrong place so to speak.
The more you doubt the flip, proportionally the less easily you'll intent and lynch without giving it some thought. But drone doesn't really give much thought to it at all, doesn't say much about hellfire really.
Because drone has talked a lot more about cloud than the person he's even about to lynch, it feels like he's preparing for tomorrow instead of thinking about what should be his problem right now, which should be figuring out hellfire.

Now, scum have a big incentive to say something like this if hellfire and cloud are both town, because he could have hammered hellfire today and go back to cloud tomorrow for 2 easy lynches.

[Raskolnikov]

You're not supposed to get a claim unless you're ready to lynch the person.

[Raskolnikov]

What the fuck though?
Why do you want to lynch distractions instead of find scum?

[Raskolnikov]

So, how do I know you aren't scum just pushing mislynches on easy targets?
Compared to last game you're putting no thought into this whatsoever.

[Raskolnikov]

And Hellfire as a distraction being lynched and flipped town, wouldn't it prove that Cloud is a distraction himself?
His loud cries to sheep after him must have a justification, if he's wrong I don't see why it's not natural to lynch him.

Pretty sure at least 1 of {cloud, hellfire} is town because of their fight with each other. No one will contest this I think.
So that's minimum 1 town, maximum 2. And if 2 town, that's the game put in LYLO and an almost guaranteed loss. To clear out "distraction".

In our last game? People all debated carefully, there wasn't anyone acting even vaguely anti-town. That's not at all the norm, usually there's 2-3 people in every game that fit your "distraction" label, more often town than not. And if people play to get rid of all of them instead of scumhunting, in most cases that's a loss.

[Raskolnikov]

rereading

[Raskolnikov]

I think TKD and blake are both super obvtown.

[Raskolnikov]

Want tenshii to explain his reads, even though they're pretty close to my own.

[Raskolnikov]

Cloud, your logic has holes bigger than all holes from cheese added together.

[Raskolnikov]

Desmond what are your reads on drone and tenshii?

[Raskolnikov]

Tell me, why Blake is obv town?

He's like theorising advanced wagon mechanics already this early, and his analysis on hellfire is super deep for someone he's not even pushing.
It's not even casting doubt I think, because it seems pretty balanced/unbiased. If you want to cast doubt you're supposed to make things look worse than they are.

What is your read on tenshii and desmond?

[Raskolnikov]

@Rask, drone and turkish basically said the same thing here, drone's quote made you sure he was scum while you think Turkish is obvtown, what makes you differ in your reads?

TKD is new but I think maybe drone should know better than to use that (pretty weak) logic.
I townread TKD for his earlier posts, plus tbh I'd probably be pressuring drone even if he didn't say that.

[Raskolnikov]

Does that mean you guys are gonna analyze his posts still and wait for the new guy to come in and add Turk's + New guy posts together to get a role?

Alignment, yeah. Some people like to forget about the old and judge the new, but most people try to consider all the players who played in the "player-slot" together.

In an ideal world, replacements actually help read a slot accurately because it gives you more chances/greater sample size. But in practice it's usually just random what happens. I doubt anything will change the townread I got on TKD though.

[Raskolnikov]

Tell me, why Blake is obv town?

Hellfire what are your reads, now that you've had a chance to relax?

[Raskolnikov]

Whoops, quote.

[Raskolnikov]

Tell me, why Blake is obv town?

Hellfire what are your reads, now that you've had a chance to relax?

I don't even know how to read still.

I don't know who's Mafia or Townie or whatever

Just who looks to you the most fishy or is acting strange, someone you think is hiding something.

[Raskolnikov]

hey charloux how's it been

[Raskolnikov]

You think it's hellfire/bbt? Kind of feels too easy.

[Raskolnikov]

Want tenshii to explain his reads, even though they're pretty close to my own.

Do you want anything in specific?

Desmond. Also, I kind of assume you scumread drone for the same reason as me, but don't actually know.

[Raskolnikov]

Would be willing to end after I get a bit more out of desmond and tenshii, so that's today or tomorrow. Doesn't look like bbt replacement is coming any time soon, waiting for it probably not worth.

[Raskolnikov]

I wondered if with the pressure of the wagon gone hellfire would start scumhunting. Nope lol.

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah that's my point. Been a few days since the l-1 was retracted and still nothing.

[Raskolnikov]

Don't want to answer that quite yet, but I will before end of day.

[Raskolnikov]

Okay, I noticed it.

UNVOTE:

??

[Raskolnikov]

Let's wagon this for fun
VOTE: desmond

[Raskolnikov]

oh I'm sorry it's a newbie game.

I got towntells from most players but I don't know much about desmond. His post showed he's not quite new-new too and I don't consider the bar as low for him as others, although it's not really fair suspecting people on BoP that's how it is.

Also to remember, that effort he made was made in response to cloud; when it wasn't about him he was kind of just fence-sitting on hellfire and less involved. Not a surefire tell but it's interesting.

[Raskolnikov]

hellfire that's the case with literally everyone's first couple of games

[Raskolnikov]

Creature do something.

[Raskolnikov]

Second guessing some things now rip.

Blake you haven't really said anything about drone since you voted him, why is that?

[Raskolnikov]

Don't think tenshii is scum unless it's with hellfire. He defended hellfire but it doesn't look like whiteknighting, and also he REALLY wanted to see your slot and you replace in before ending the day. Minor, but think scum wouldn't care about something like that.

[Raskolnikov]

No but his push on drone is okay.

Read the game you lazy sack.

[Raskolnikov]

There's no walls and every post is 1 sentence, so this is actually more like 10 pages than 20

[Raskolnikov]

Creature how do you clear hellfire?

His later stuff is consistent with not knowing anything but when he was wagoned he showed some basic level of understanding (205 206). Like, he seemed to try a basic level when under pressure, but when people backed off he then went full-blown clueless even more than before. Rjxr had played the newb card pretty hard too if I remember.

[Raskolnikov]

Let's see if desmond picks up his prod or gets replaced.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: hellfire

Final thoughts are
Preferred lynches (hellfire / desmond slot)
Scumpool (hellfire, desmond, creature, blake)
Probably town, if not, only scum with hellfire (tenshii, drone)
Wouldn't touch all game (cloudkicker, tkd-slot)
Obviously take new information into account, etc etc.

Doubling down on 477 WRT to tenshii, also have drone-blake and drone-tenshii as very unlikely in terms of association from drone's interactions with both.
Creature talking with hellfire would ordinarily count but may be super wifom.

[Raskolnikov]

Right so, lean scum on him for the cloud vote and now putting pretty much no effort into the game, beyond "hey look at me I'm clueless". Not really any learning or like, evidence he's put real time/effort into fixing it since.

But this is partially policy. Not a concept that's necessarily easiest to grasp for newbie queue but he's by the safest, lowest-risk no-downside lynch, I'll explain:
1. Has already claimed; each additional wagon runs the risk of outing a PR which can be disastrous
2. Low value if town, probability a liability if game gets to lategame (VT claim means that if he's tow he will never be nk'd)
3. Rich on associations, based on either flip it narrows things down
But mainly it's that there's not much time to deadline so any wagon now would be frantic, risky (there wouldn't be time to reconsider based on new information), and if town would more or less leave the game in the same position as today, but in next day.

Ordinarily this stuff (utility and pro-town vs anti-town) doesn't get explicitly said/stated outside of this queue as it's generally understood, but yeah. Even then, some people like to play risky and like a hero and dislike practical/sensible and low-risk moves because it seems boring. Also something people screw up with, they think something is either policy or not-policy (black and white) when something can be a mixture, in fact "potential usefulness/downside vs upside" factors into every lynch to some degree, but especially day 1.

[Raskolnikov]

I'm gone this weekend, back monday.

PLEASE lynch hellfire before the deadline ends, or someone else in my lynchpool at least, anything but nolynch. I played a game where deadline ran out and that happened because everyone was all like "I've never had that happen d1" and complacent lazy and scum lurked and didn't vote and it was really bad.