Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Almost50]

Hello, hello, hello.. and hello to you too...

[Almost50]

^THIS is a scummy entrance. Greetings to everyone with no other content is a scumtell, but there's more to come

[Almost50]

o/

how's it going y'all

This here is a red herring too. My predecessor skipped RVS and only greeted people in his first post. I guess I caught you scum, GOBBLES.

[Almost50]

Oh, wait. skitter's here too. This one goes to you too.

[Almost50]

Well this is certainly a development

Just you wait, Mr French teacher. Your turn is coming up soon.

[Almost50]

Btw, should I be aware of anything in specific? Did anyone like.. CLAIM anything? (I know FB claimed Cop on P1, when he is in fact a Vigilante).

P-edit: Well, you ARE French and you ARE a teacher, right?

[Almost50]

@skitter am I remembering correctly that you have a claimed proficiency in reading A50 or am I mixing you up with someone else? It’s been a while since I played with him

Last time all 3 of us played together YOU were scum. I do remember THAT.

I think you modded me in one game shortly after that one.

[Almost50]

Almost50 replaces Chemist1422

o/

No worries, mate. Just let me do my thing and if you have any reservations that's what the scum PT is for.

[Almost50]

Welcome to the game Almost50.

How r u?

Thanks

And I'm doing fine. In fact, I am super excited to be here with you all. Fancy some turkey sandwiches on the run?

[Almost50]

Wayyyyy, too slow turkey, but also hi!

Hi skitt, hi fb, hi S_S!

Hi!!

I would call out the people I'm hyped to play with but it's literally just the entire playerlist

Now it's the entire playerlist "minus one".

[Almost50]

My name is Iñigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die

First TR prize goes to Pink Ball. (This means this is the one I will be shooting tonight, barring any explicit claims)

[Almost50]

Turkey will die

So, you kill the gobbler and I shoot you. I hope you went for the BP option.

[Almost50]

My father was an honorable man. He put drugs in people's wine, it's true, but he always gave you the alternative of not drinking it. That's the gentleman's code right there

Your father was the JIGSAW?

[Almost50]

Guys...hey guys...how about this:

Since Mena invited us all to play this game with him what about we - and this is the important part - flash lynch him before page 5 as a thank you.

Great idea, right?

Another P joins the Town list. P stands for Pretty Awesome this game it seems.

[Almost50]

I didn't roll sk and now my entertainment value has gone down.
Also the setup page looked complicated can someone explain how it works thx

Scum post (and now >I< am going to die on N1.. for real)

[Almost50]

Chemist is scum.

Amen to that. I'm glad someone else sees it too. LYNCH THIS SLOT.

[Almost50]

Mena/skitter/Mariar

Pack it up folks, it’s five o clock somewhere
Time for happy hour!

I hate to say it, but this looks like Town!gobble to me.

[Almost50]

and for my first post, a PAGETOP

hi friends! excited to play with everyone

yall, mena just copied the order of the playerlist. lol

Taken from my Role PM in Gitsou (back in 2016):

A master frontiersman from even an early age, you were equally skilled at mounting raptor, groden, and horse alike. While you keep a

raptor named Lilith

and a groden named Zach as pets, your most faithful companion is your trusted steed

Hunter

, so named because he has the white mane so associated with the paleskinned people you had only heard of before the rise of Gistou brought them to your doorstep.

So are you a bird of prey, or are you a a dromaeosaurid dinosaur??

[Almost50]

Good thing I’m the SK so I can kill those people who have stolen what is rightfully mine

Stop it. I have already decided PB was the SK. Are you trying to get me to kill you instead? Are you??

Btw, I hard claim PGO (so nobody should be on me tonight, and especially so in the case of the GS)

[Almost50]

I CC Serial Killer. Lynch Gobbles pls

Alright. I CC your CC, because it really is ME and I was trying to frame PB for being it so that Mafia would shoot him and/or GS/Tracker would be on him.

Boy, do we have a Mexican stand off here. A 3-way Mexican stand off. We need a fourth to mimic that scene from that movie that I just can't recall ANYTHING about except for this scene where 4 law enforcement officers from the states of NM, AZ, UT & CO all meet @ the point where all 4 states' borders converge. God I forget even who they were except for Michael Peña.

[Almost50]

I'm very ill with some sort of respiratory sickness (please dear god not covid) so I will not be here much over the next couple of days

Oh, shit. I sure hope it isn't, dude. Wish you all the best.

[Almost50]

I don't think anyone has any real reason to say 'no' to lynching Blake

Here's my preemptive NO.

[Almost50]

I CC Serial Killer. Lynch Gobbles pls

Alright. I CC your CC, because it really is ME and I was trying to frame PB for being it so that Mafia would shoot him and/or GS/Tracker would be on him.

Boy, do we have a Mexican stand off here. A 3-way Mexican stand off. We need a fourth to mimic that scene from that movie that I just can't recall ANYTHING about except for this scene where 4 law enforcement officers from the states of NM, AZ, UT & CO all meet @ the point where all 4 states' borders converge. God I forget even who they were except for Michael Peña.

If it was a mexican stand off. Why we all holding knives?

Hmm! Good point.

Btw, I looked it up (using Michael Peña as the key) and the movie is Vacation

[Almost50]

THE MONKEY, THE MONKEY IS HERE

Happy belated birthday dude change your username once and for all you can't keep lying!

Well, I'm not yet 50 by the standards of my planet.

Note: Please don't make me research for a planet that would meet the criteria. Just pretend you bought it and move on.

[Almost50]

Hi Lilith! You get a townpoint for figuring out the readslist first!

I did too, but I didn't say a thing because I was content with your scumlean on my slot.

[Almost50]

ooh maybe town!lilith

ooh maybe town!lilith

Would you say stuttering is a scumtell of yours?

[Almost50]

Oh snap. Scumgle is in this game.

VOTE: Scumgle

Did you mean to type Sméagol, my precious?

[Almost50]

I didn't roll sk and now my entertainment value has gone down.
Also the setup page looked complicated can someone explain how it works thx

Exactly one of the potential three commuters should claim and then never mention what night they’re commuting. No one else should claim outside of L-1. There’s a very optimal order for fakeclaims, but doing so without knowing what exists is dangerous in the extreme for scum. There are several roles that imply or guarantee the existence of a different role which is potentially very useful in the endgame. Most of the roles are actually variant versions, so be careful to check that the role in question works the way you think it does.

Otherwise, it’s a badass player list and we’re going to mislynch PB at some point to guarantee the town win

Thank you bringing this up. NOT that I'm claiming ANYTHING at this point, but it slipped my mind that we both had Commuters (and a Scum BusDriver) at first glance, so you mentioning it made me take another look at the setup wiki page.

[Almost50]

When this game starts to get serious so will I

And now I'm starting to get really paranoid. You sound like you did in TM2020 (although -to be fair- you also did that in the game with corporations and a civil war... what was it's name?)

OK: IF I WAS THE HIDER (AND I'M NOT CLAIMING TO BE) I'D BE HIDING BEHIND MARIA TONIGHT.

In other words, if I flip overnight, and I happen to be the Hider, and Maria is still alive, chances are she is Scum (who would probably try to claim Commuter to buy herself another day/night).

Now if I'm still alive by D2, and/or if Maria is herself dead, then we will know for sure.

[Almost50]

Oh, and also I am explicitly claiming not to be a commuter.

is this something that you think that everyone ought to claim?

CERTAINLY NOT! At the extreme case we have THREE Commuters, and everyone who claims not to be one is adding themselves to the pool of the NK for the scum/SK to shoot. (Unless -of course- you have a track record of fake claiming as either alignment. in which case nobody's going to believe it anyway)

Like, I am NOT the Hider, but IF I WAS I'd be hiding behind Maria tonight. Now am I a Hider? Am I a Commuter? Or am I something else? I mean, I could be Tracker and "track record" would be my crumb. Then again, I could be just a VT messing around and making Scum unsure. Hell, I could be a 1-shot Tracker (thus KNOW there has to be a FULL Tracker) and I'm just baiting the NK away from them, while -simultaneously- telling them that I would be on Maria so they should be on someone else.

I bet not even YOU can guess what my role is.

[Almost50]

Theoretically we should actually all crumb a person we are hiding behind at the end of the day to obscure any real hiders in plain sight.

Theoretically that's a bad idea because if I'm the Hider and announce that I'm hiding behind Maria:

A) Maria is Town >> Scum shoot her >> I'm dead on N1
B) Maria is Town >> Scum shoot her >> I'm not dead = I'm not the Hider
C) Maria is Scum >> I'm dying anyway >> Scum know not to shoot me and will shoot another townie
D) Maria is Scum >> I'm not dead >> Scum know I am not the Hider

Now apply that to ALL slots, knowing there is only ONE Hider in play at max, and you know they can exclude 3-4 players already from being it on a single night

BUT we can certainly think of another way to go about this. Like, if we knew there was a Doctor (and we don't) then we announce the Hider targets Maria and the Doctor protects her. That was if Maria is Town she is either confirmed or Scum would have to use their 1-shot Strongman on N1. If she is Scum and the Hider dies that's a hard guilty anyway.

[Almost50]

Disclaimer: Sleepiness is creeping into my eyes, so I may have overlooked something at one point or another

[Almost50]

and hider results aren't 100% with JK/busdriver in the potential mix.

They both resolve AFTER the Hider (according to the wiki page).

Order of operations for night resolution is as follows:
Commuting
Hiding
Bus Driving
Jailkeeping / Roleblocking
Protecting
Killing
Investigating

[Almost50]

Not that I disagree that it's still a bad idea for all to crumb theoretical Hider targets, but I was refuting the part about Hider's results not being reliable.

[Almost50]

Lynch Almost50

and together we can rule Antarctica as Penguin and some kind of weird bear thingy.

WTF? Are you a soothsayer? psychic?? Or do you have a Time Machine???

[Almost50]

Hider is one of the safest fakeclaims in the setup, in that it has a built in reason for not dying and a massive benefit for town. Commuter, similarly, is a fairly safe claim.

Thanks for the tip. I shall claim one of these if I'm driven to L-1.

[Almost50]

~3 of the pseudoclaims come from scum, meaning that scum has no added incentive to kill that person. 3 town players all say that they're going to hide behind Y, because Y is moderately townread but not outside of their scumrange entirely. 2 more town players say they're going to hide behind X because same reasons. Scum now has the ability to bus drive Y and scum, and kill X. If no hider flips, none of X and the 5 players can be the hider. That's 10 players who can't be the hider at day start of D2. During N2, killing the hider becomes trivial.

I don't see how you got FIVE even if you thought BD resolved first. It's either or. BD resolves before Hider = those targeting X will actually hit Y and vise versa. If BD resolves after the the Hider hits the designated target of their choice. Unless you also assumed Y is SCUM (in addition to thinking BD resolved before Hiding), so you thought Y visitors would hit X (and if there's a Hider among them they will die, otherwise they're not the Hider) AND those who targeted C will hit Y (and if the Hider is among them will die because they hid behind Scum, otherwise they're not the Hider).

But anyway, since BD resolves AFTER the Hider that makes the Hider result 100% accurate, as they can neither be affected by the BusDriver nor the Jailkeeper (or even the 1-shot RB from the Scum JOAT if existent)

[Almost50]

Yes

When this game starts to get serious so will I

Scum!Maria doesn't post this

[Almost50]

Wait! I just realized NOW that Menalque resides at Southampton, UK. Did I confuse you with "teacher"?? I could have sworn you said you spent a few years in Latin America working as a teacher.

[Almost50]

I think Ppay have met his match

It's spelt POPEYE!

[Almost50]

I don’t like the idea of commuters claiming to confirm the hider exists.

Mate, Bingle said specifically that ONLY ONE Commuter should claim. There is no plural there. Just one. And while that

could

be Scum fishing for setup info, it could come from a town mindset all the same. Let's say it's NAI

[Almost50]

I can’t remember if you shit on my ability to read you in 1992 but I think possibly there as well

Mate. that was 28 years ago. get over it.

[Almost50]

Lilith is scum.

Are you disappointed in yourself for not managing to flashlynch me within 5 pages despite me trying to help?

Also, why?

Extremely disappointed. I wanted to get you a good gift.

Also, because I want to give her more reasons to scum read me since she thinks I’m being serious.

Don't bloody lick you finger, rub your eyes or touch your nose. It's how you let the covid-19 virus into your body.

[Almost50]

I think I'll stop here (bottom of page 14). I'll continue my catch up tomorrow (so don't be posting more than 10-12 new pages).

[Almost50]

There was an RVS wagon on mena which is mainly what i’m referring to, which consisted of gobbles, skitter, datisi, penguin, and mena.

I agree on the first 4, but how do you know Mena's vote wasn't serious, may I ask?

[Almost50]

Also, for the record: I see people calling for a Bingle lynch on page 15 and I have no idea why that is. As a player who has been subjected to the same notion more often of late (people suspecting me for no reason) I will admit I may have sympathy working on Bingle's side at the moment (not to mention I like the guy as a person), but the truth is -as far as I have read- Bingle is probably my 2nd or 3rd strongest TR. I'll keep on reading, but -as of now- Bingle isn't even close to being in my lynch pool.

[Almost50]

Hi a50 !!!!

A50 is town! That was easy!

Gobbles i hope you're ok/not suffering from covid

I dunno whether it looks like I'm stalking you or FB of late, but I saw a vacancy, I like the mod, I checked the players list and it looked awesome, so I hopped into the slot.

Now about this TR you have on me. I claimed Scum. The same thing I did in that game where you SR me the minute I subbed in. WHAT DIFFERENCE did you see here that wasn't there is my question.

[Almost50]

what if i told u. I have a cop inno on maria

I would call it a lie myself. I once checked Maria and she came back guilty, although she wasn't even in the same game with me. Maria ALWAYS returns guilty to all kinds of Cops, my friend.

[Almost50]

datisi’s iso indicating he’s scumreading mena

Contextually I think the continued vote after their interactions implies a scumread, but Dats can clear that up when she gets back.

Why is everybody calling Datisi a she when "she has a he" as the pronoun choice??

P.S. This is important in case I decide to let AP into this. He would want to know who is available for his flirting and who is not.

[Almost50]

Maria is town, I can prove it

Phil Fearon, is that you?

Spoiler:

[Almost50]

god its like ur my sister when she passes of a simple comment as not an insult when it contains an insult.

AP would like to know if said sisters plays Mafia at all.

[Almost50]

I want gobble to explain like, anything. His reads feel entirely made up on the spot/meaning to take advantage of the game state. It's a light read that will probably change when he gives me the sit down, but until then I will call him scum. This game had a lot more filler than I was expecting, making it a bit harder to get into it.

I'm tired of carrying, I get to be carried now

I am the backpack now

There are no backup Roles in this setup. Failed crumb gambit detected.

[Almost50]

She does a lot of lowkey sas.

You can press Shift while simultaneously doing your sass and it will be in HIGHER KEY. Just saying.

[Almost50]

We need to work on your sassyness

You can't make it obvious! But please teach me your sassy ways mentor

The first lesson is that it cannot be taught. Reach within. You will find the answer.

Yes. Search your heart, search your soul, and when you find me there you'll search no more.

[Almost50]

Naah mean girls is so 2010.

Actually it was 2004, although Mean Girls 2 was aired on TV in Jan 2011. Did you mean the second?

[Almost50]

I do strongly believe that Skitter30 and Something_Smart has scum within them.

And why did you pick skitter to vote of the two? Just for the record.

[Almost50]

This game now feels really different to how it did like 24-48 hours ago

Amen to that. Basically it became a boring reading of several 1v1's that I can hardly find anything to comment on, or even meme about!

[Almost50]

Okay, I'm gonna lay my cards on the table before I go to sleep

Spoiler:

Town:

Bingle

-- I am still a little iffy, quite frankly, about how he characterised my interaction with Datisi, but it didn't feel like a shitpush looking back at it. There's still some elements in his ISO that make me uneasy, like his hard townread on dats as of 148. I don't really care about/understand any of the mechanics so I haven't really read any of those posts. I'm hoping some town who's better than me at processing it can double check it, but I also kind of trust him that scum!him doesn't lie about mechanics anyway. He's not wrong that I kind of made up 140 (or at least made up the reasons even if the gut feel was really there). I agree with his take that in a world where he's town, the turkey could be sheeping along with my push. Reading back I'm still personally bugged by the way he seemed at times to be interacting with me in bad faith (see: 354 but after checking that with datisi, S_S) I think it's more likely me being over sensitive because he was calling me scum. If he is scum tho, and his partners aren't exactly (datisi, S_S) then I get to point out that he was, in fact, engaging me in bad faith and you guys should have backed me up. Ahem, I digress. I think the way he's clashing with me makes sense if he has a genuine scumread on me at the time he says he does, I like his shift onto gobbles because it came at a time I was thinking about doing the same thing but he pre-empted me, and honestly I don't think scum!him pushes

me

(knowing how much I hate being shitpushed and how tunnely and hyperposty I can be) for reasons as bad as the ones he gave when he was scumreading me. This may be a little arrogant: I don't care.

Datisi

-- I just feel like she's being honest in her interactions with me. Could she be faking being pissed off (or genuinely pissed off but bc she feels caught for the wrong reasons) at the beginning? Sure. Could she just be overall emotionally manipulating me to make me feel guilty for being uneasy on her? Also very possible. But fuck if this doesn't just feel like town!datisi. I think skitter is right too that her being sort of passive may actually be a towntell, with her not trying too hard to get into the towncore.

Maria

-- called out both gobbles and skitter at times when I was thinking similar things about them being weird and/or scummy. if gobbles and skitter were to flip town then would be worth revisiting as possible pushing things that look optically scummy without being so. But mostly I jam with those reads at the times when they came.

slightly weaker town:

fb

-- I would feel better about this if he actually produced his analyses of 3 players including a faked one. As I'm writing this I'm kind of realising that I don't have as clear reasons for townreading him as I thought and so I've moved him into this weak town category instead of letting him sit with the other three. There's, to an extent, the same thing happening with pure boi -- he's townier than the people at the bottom and there can only be so many scum. If there were a couple of town flips there, he'd definitely be someone to revisit. Overall, I feel this level of presence reminds me of him being town. I am cautious about that too though, as I've never seen scum!him, I don't think. There are bits of solving in ISO that look genuine to me too (see: 283, 294, 296, 516, 636). So, in conclusion: remembered him as town, couldn't put my finger on why, looked at his ISO as part of making this readslist and now feel better about this read again. He'll probably be horrendously offended to be my 4th highest towered.

Townlean:

Blake

-- she really hasn't done enough for me to feel good about her being town but I liked her readslist a lot and it seemed to line up very well with mine. I think her seeing the game that similarly to me is probably enough for me to just leave her here for now. I wouldn't say this is locked in, but I'd feel better if she lynches scum today.

Pure boi

-- idk, he doesn't feel manipulative to me here (not that he ever does so *shrug*). he's mostly in town lean because I do feel positively about him even if it's not for good reasons, and because there are a bunch of slots I feel worse about (and there's only 3 scum). A good place to revisit if 2/3 of my bottom 3 turn up town.

True null:

S_S

-- honestly he felt fine right at the beginning, but I didn't love his re-entry and what he seemed to focus on with his comments. He's someone I read as town when he's not (I've never successfully identified scum!S_S) but also someone liable to being pushed by scum when he's town because of his fairly idiosyncratic style. I'd err town here, honestly, if it weren't for me not liking his reads on the game. On the flip side, is the CW to my favourite take for scum who's being pushed by my top take for scum and another slot I feel uneasy about. Leaving him here for now, not interested in lynching today. Hoping to sheep someone good at reading him.

Scumlean:

skitter30

-- I really don't jam with skitter this game, and that's weird because in the past when we've both been town, we normally do. That being said, I think that mislynching skitter on D1 is basically a wet dream for scum, and so I'm not really interested in lynching here. I find it strange that she can't get to more solid reads given that she has got a conception of what she thinks scum would be doing, and that she won't narrow it down further.

chem

-- I haven't really seen him do anything in line with what I expect from town him. I think dodging and promising content later while being funny is much more in line with scum!chem then town!chem who I think does always try to provide reads even when he's strapped for time or not around or whatever. But being lurky on D1 is not necessarily a scumtell for chem and he often gets mislynched to it. Plausibly scum, but not really an ideal D1, I don't think.

Scum:

lilith2013

-- my weakest scumread of the three, but also I think playing an under-the-radar game while not being actually lurky. I've been intentionally ignoring her at points, and she doesn't really seem bothered by it which is lowkey something I'd expect from someone intersested in solving the game. There's quite a lot of her describing what's happened rather than analysing it imo (see: 376, 383). She's pushing bingle with cover from my push earlier, I think, which also twigs me as off. I think I could be wrong here because I have less experience with her, and I do tend a little towards scumreading those I have less experience with in PLs like this (there's like a brief golden period after 1-2 games played with someone where I feel good about it before I start getting really paranoid about being wrong on them in the future -- see: datisi, Iconeum, ducky). I overall get a strong vibe of her wanting to look like she's doing stuff without really doing stuff. It also pings me mildly that she felt the need to make 858 as I think town that's busy typically just is busy and tends to drop content in when they can rather than excuse their not being able to do so. It's not lockscumable imo, but it is a tell that I've used and had used against me in the past and that in conjunction with the other stuff is enough for her to be in my solve.

PP

-- seems to be flying under the radar and avoiding committing to things, even when directly asked. (see: me asking about bingle) Generally, he reminds me more of when I modded for scum!pinguino, and the overall approach there (do little proactive, be funny and sassy, respond when needed) than times when we've been town together (see: turret's bizarre adventure pt2 where I also think he was more pro-active). Notable that he was the first one to hop off when the turkey got to fake L-1.

turkey

-- when me and gobbles were fighting, he seemed happy to get onboard. His presence has generally been very weak, and he really reminds me here of how he approached his Team Mafia game. He's good enough as scum to fake it to an extent, but not to be excited. I agree with Maria that he lacks the intense conviction in what he's doing that he has when town.

While I do -very much- appreciate the

effort

you put in this, I kinda feel like this is a really bad readlist from my PoV (which is always subjective, y'know). Mainly I "think" you are TRing scum and SRing town (or more to it, I don't think there's scum below your NULL line) !!!!

Still, I can't really say I'm confident enough in my current reads (and I do have less scum reads than I should, tbh) so I'm not going to go into more details. I'll just say you've got my strongest 2 TRs below your Null line.

[Almost50]

i agree both PP and gobbles are flying under radar. Not so sure about lilith.

I mean, seriously.. if I was reading the game from outside at the time I'd be shocked you're calling out all 3 of them and ignoring my slot! Like, unless you really are a Cop (and there are no alignment Cops in this setup) AND you were given a N0 check on chemist (This setup has a day start) I don't know why chemist has been given this slack WHILE you are attacking other people for "flying under radar".

[Almost50]

First things first, every single person who has voted my wagon needs to substantiate their reason for voting me. The list of people who need to substantiate why they voted me:
- Bingle
- Datisi
- Menalque
- MariaR
- Pink Ball
- Firebringer
- PenguinPower

How much are you willing to bet 2 group scums are in this list? (And if there's a SK they're in it too).

[Almost50]

EoP 48. Do we really take the SK claim for granted here? Do we lynch or leash them?

FTR, I didn't see a "crumb", but I got the gist Turkey was hinting [redacted] in particular when he said [redacted] (1st redaction is a TPR)

[Almost50]

I'm saying skitter said she saw the crumbs because it was convenient for her to say that, 'cause it's something you can wash off easily too ("Oh I guess what I saw wasn't a crumb then")

No. I did too. As I said; it was not a crumb per se that I thought I saw, but a hint of some sort. I also still doubt a SK would actually claim on D1 (although this is the Turkey and I witnessed him truthfully claiming he was culted and even outing the other player who was culted and was still alive, so I dunno how I feel about it really).

[Almost50]

4) skitter and gobbles are both scum and skitter is covering for gobbles?

skitter is scum with gobbles who then decided to claim SK, thus giving the SK 2 confirmed scum targets to eliminate??

P.S. Surely you're not suggesting Scum know there is no SK, because (a) I don't see a scum team composition that only exists in the lack of a SK, and (b) it would be even more stupid to claim SK and then have a single NK every night, or have 2 NKs and then have a Vig flipping.

All-in-all, I don;t believe skitter is scum with the Turkey for a second.

[Almost50]

I come home in the morning light
My mother says, "when you gonna live your life right?"
Oh mother dear we're not the fortunate ones
And Ball, he wanna have fun
Ponk Ball just want to have fun

Man, time after time I'm gonna just say your true colours are beautiful like rainbow.

[Almost50]

what’s “wim”?

Short for Wimpy; a fast food chain of restaurants that existed before McDonalds (funnily enough they were headquartered in Chicago, which is now where McDonald's is headquartered). Nowadays; Wimpy is based in South Africa and have now became more of a casual dining style diners chain (and ceased to exist in many countries they previously have been pretty much big in)

I hope that was helpful. You're welcome.

[Almost50]

I think that leashing killing roles is close to impossible the first night since there might be a bus driver

It might be better just to lynch him actually

+1, we still lynch gobbles today

I respect him trying to make a deal, but fundamentally he doesn’t have a town wincon and right now he’s in the weakest negotiating position. The more scum that die, the stronger the town position becomes and the weaker gobbles’ position becomes because we need him less and less to help. So there’s actually very little incentive for him as SK to help eliminate his top SRs. Equally, if we mislynch then his position becomes stronger because there’ll be a worry that we need to lynch scum and to try and deal with the SK later which is more likely to lead to some sort of weird kingmaker scenario in late game.

Scumhunting outside gobbles is fine now but we need to be willing to rewagon him to death by end of day. Talking of: VOTE: PP

Wouldn't you deciding to lynch the Turkey in advance make any other wagoning worthless?

[Almost50]

@skitter I don't buy your explanation. Thinking that gobble is crumbing because he used the word doctor in a post is looking down on gobble as a player and I don't think you would do that. Also, I already explained why it would be convenient for you to say out loud that you saw the crumb

And you wouldn't look down on a player who claims SK on D1?? COME ON!!!

Like, I do like gobbles

as a person

, and I like his company in games because he is funny (sometimes) but the quality of his play is not as likable (but I'm not complaining only because I am Town here. If I was Scum I'd be furious, like in that game where he claimed culted and refused to play ball with the scum team)

[Almost50]

I am shocked they are not town reads!! Do you think we need to call their doctors?

like this looks like a natural usage of the word doctor to you?
it's really weird both in and out of context

You still need to learn about crumbs though. Like. if I was a Doctor I'd be as subtle as posting..

Spoiler:

Or

Spoiler:

Or even

Spoiler:

which would have all went totally unnoticed. Right?

[Almost50]

And AP has just suggested an even better one:

Spoiler:

[Almost50]

OH.

Now I'm embarrassed I didn't see that one myself.

You're no alone. I though he was a totally different PR.

[Almost50]

I even had him at the TOP of my readlist because of it. (and now a certain UK south coast resident has one on me)

[Almost50]

^^ he's going to kill me because he doesn't know how to read me so can we please lynch the literal claimed scum thank you

I dunno about that. I would always think I am the Turkey's 1st choice, but I'm not too worried and I will let him live for at least one more day if the Town agrees to.

[Almost50]

VOTE: turkey

I will also hammer this if it's within hammering range by the time I'm all caught up.

[Almost50]

Why wouldn’t he take the guaranteed not group scum flip and just kill me here if he was group scum?

1- An extra NK os always welcome by scum, especially if they think your reads are bad
2- Because we get to wagon someone else and either have a claim or mislynch, and then you are the lynch of tomorrow, so we are wasting 2 days without lynching group scum

FTR, S_S is my prime suspect too, but I really shouldn't be outing my full readlist right now.

STILL HIDING BEHIND MARIA IF I AM THE HIDER

[Almost50]

Because I know I will be asked, I am voting for lilith2013 because I do not have a townread on her.

Fair enough. I'm not going to even bother ask you why you've been ignoring chemist either, but I do expect to have a read on me (by you) by the the time I'm caught up (I think I posted enough for you to gutread or meta or do whatever you decided to do this game if you are Town here).

[Almost50]

your wincon or “be the last bird standing”

If that was his wincom he would be shooting PP and not me. "The last animal in the zoo" is more like it.

[Almost50]

FTR, I am reevaluating ALL of my reads. I only have 2 confident TRs at this point. Everyone else I will reconsider I think.

[Almost50]

In fact, here's a request from

EVERYBODY

: Could you please out your read on me.my slot before I start giving reads?

P.S. I am not even guaranteed to give a full readlist on D1. I think it best if I kept the details for myself and only outed what I think is beneficial to town at this point. Like, if I say I SR S_S it's a good thing for town because if he is Scum he gets checked and caught and if he is town scum are less likely to kill him on N1. I don't think S_S could be lynched on D1 as either alignment, so this one works fine and I have no problem stating it out loud now. Also, if I'm the Tracker that's certainly not where I will track, and if I'm the JK I am unlikely to block him (and that's how WIFOM works, because now S_S doesn't know whether to do the kill if he is scum or not, because he knows better than to believe anything I say)

Also outing my strongest TRs is bad in case I am a Doctor, so... no full readlist from me on D1.

[Almost50]

mena when do we get to push chemist for not doing anything

Err.. never?? (Sorry to disappoint you. Still love you and all)

[Almost50]

I kind of don’t want to lynch gobbles now I know that he’s SK because that puzzle piece is solved but I’m pretty much set on that being correct play

Can you bloody make up your mind on that already?? Cuz I'm mainly sheeping you on this one.

In fact:

@Bingle: What is the correct play here? Lynch gobble on D1 or let him live for a day or two?

[Almost50]

Like, if it was the duck I would have been certain I wanted him to live (See? I'm not a racist. Not auto-lynching everything that has feathers on it)

[Almost50]

I actually really disliked smart’s efforts to preserve gobble because I think that gobble is very much not going to play pro-town however much he says he will, because I respect gobble too much to thing he would disregard his wincon just because

I can .. like.. testify in his favour in that he will try to play pro-town. I am worried about his reads and his stubbornness though. Like, if he decided I was scum not even the mod could convince him otherwise, hence my indecision.

[Almost50]

I think I still *want* to lynch Lilith the most because if I’m wrong there I think I have an idea of where I should be looking but ehhhh

I had town pings from her already, and I specifically typed (in my notes file) she was not group scum. Now that we do have the SK outed I think lillith qualifies for a strong TR (not in the top 3 though)

[Almost50]

i would kinda be ok with that but i'm hesitant because there's the potential of a bus driver and i'm a little worried about things turning ugly

like i would be ok with: here's a lynch pool of 3 names and you must shoot one of them. that would drastically lower the possibility of things going awry via bus driver i think because scum wouldn't know who to bus drive

Consider this though: The proposed pool actually contains only 1 scum. Scum simply BD that one with someone else who is not scum and they are guaranteed the kill doesn't hit them.

If we are letting the Turkey live we let him shoot at will, and never say or hint who he would be shooting (he already outed some reads and statements he shouldn't have, like him telling Datisi he won't be shooting there on N1, which was another bad "revelation" if he wants to side by town, and I still think he does)

[Almost50]

Oh, don't end the day just yet. Give me a few more hours (I don't even know how the VC looks like in the "future")

[Almost50]

Oh, and @Bingle: YOU are allowed to speculate on my role at this point. I won't confirm or deny anything, but I would like to know if you picked up on anything I said (so far I have literally claimed/hinted Doctor, Jailer, Tracker, Hider, Commuter, Vig & Gunsmith. This leaves me with a to-do list of Vengeful & Role Cop.

[Almost50]

I think the idea of letting gobble live is to have scum considering shooting him before he shoots them. THAT is the one true argument I have for him to live. NOT his shot (even if he sides by Town he is shooting in the dark like a Vigilante would. No guarantees).

[Almost50]

Dunno. I have people I would lynch though - you, Lilith, S_S, Chemist

Good luck lynching chemist, since he has left the building.

Now if you still want to lynch

his slot

by the time I'm all caught up, I might as well be calling you "enguinower" from now on.

Spoiler:

That is to say I will be removing your PP if you missed the hint.

[Almost50]

Here is the compromise. I will give you my PoE pool, so that you can know who I am aiming at so it isn't surprising.

God. NO! Does anybody have a time machine? I only need to go back like 3 days in time. Doctor Evil? Throw me a bone here.

[Almost50]

The argument that actually holds weight? I'm willing to make the high risk high reward play that gobbles here performs similarly to tw in that game where tw shot the entire scumteam as SK.

Man, I swear I didn't read this post of yours when I made mine about letting the duck live as SK.

[Almost50]

Does anyone know if PB would be likely to fake a townslip as scum?

What townslip? I must've missed it.

[Almost50]

Does anyone know if PB would be likely to fake a townslip as scum?

I think the answer is no, but I've spent the last like 4 games we play together mislynching him so I don't really trust myself on that judgment call.

I kinda think he would I just don’t know if he has. He’s done it twice which has given me some doubts

Is this English

Sowndz lyk Inglish to mi, monsieur dinde

[Almost50]

It's not like it's not obvious or anything, but scum PB would know that scum can't actually determine if there's an SK

Oh, that one. I guess I didn't think of it that way.

[Almost50]

i think fire is town

How certain are you on him? because I have him as null (and with me failing to have as many SRs as I should he 's in my PoE)

[Almost50]

At any rate, I can’t lolkill anyone because I can’t kill anyone. I’m not actually a serial killer.

I would be shocked if you actually flipped not SK!! I wouldn't have thought (and still don't think) you were the type of player that pulls off such a gambit as either town/scum.

Was this the last if it? Or did you go back to claiming SK next?? I guess I should be reading a few more pages (already close to being all caught up, so I'm pushing for it and refusing to let sleep take over me)

[Almost50]

Chemist1422 is likely town. I suspect he'd have more presence or at least feel more pressure in some way if he was scum. For reference, I recently co-modded a game he was scum in.

Hmmm.. nice take. At least I now understand why you didn't try to push him more.

[Almost50]

I'm waiting for him to confirm whether it was serious before I say anything about it.

Or do anything...?

Yes it was serious. I am a vt. I was dropping all sorts of crumbs with the hope a scum would catch one of them and kill me. Why would I not at least try to claim vig as SK if I was SK?
Also, it should be obvious by how fast my wagons formed and how no one has done anything since my claim that I’m not group scum.

The question is why would you retract it if your intention was to bait the NK on yourself?

[Almost50]

Well, I don’t know about everyone else, but I sure feel pretty good about the scumteam not being (skitter, gobbles, S_S)!

Like, if all 3 claimed scum together now I'd be willing to forfeit the game to them.

[Almost50]

Judge the bird for his actions: he got to L-1 because players who have played with him thought he was a bit off. He's now voting SS, the most suitable counterwagon.

1- I/chemist never voted gobble
2- I never thought he was off
3- Judge is not playing here. Only I and -occasionally- AP are present

[Almost50]

Hmmm turkey makes a good point saying that he could've gone with the leash thing, so he had to unclaim 'cause he's not really the SK. Unless he's planning to no kill until the end of times. Let's see: town!gobble's reasoning behind the claim and the unclaim after I don't really get it. SK!gobble's reasoning would be to no kill until the opportunity arises. scum!gobble same as town.

So ok gobble could go either way, but I think that SK!gobble unclaiming SK is a brilliant move. SK!gobble can't win if everyone knows he's the SK 'cause he'll eventually die. So the only way to get to endgame, his absolute only course of action, is unclaiming now (because doing it later would get him immediately lynched). I think turkey succumbed to pressure and claimed his role thinking that would save him. SK!gobble would be scumsiding right now, 'cause he won't kill during the night and makes it harder for town to achieve wincon.

So in conclusion, if gobble is SK, he has to be lynched now. And people like skitter trying to make it look like the bad choice is either really wrong or really scummy hurt my tummy.

Don't forget he also said "if we get 3 red flips and the game isn't over" we can lynch him. In a vacuum that is a scum claim (because we can't possibly get 3 red flips with one group scum alive), but I'd still be questioning the sanity of a Mafioso who claimed SK on D1 regardless. It doesn't make any shred of sense to me either (so I'm with skitter on this)

[Almost50]

You know what? call me a fool, call me naive, but I think I'm leaning on buying Turkey goofed up once more that believing him as group scum. It's like 50% VT, 45% SK, and 5% Mafia for me.

[Almost50]

You know what? call me a fool, call me naive, but I think I'm leaning on buying Turkey goofed up once more that believing him as group scum. It's like 50% VT, 45% SK, and 5% Mafia for me.

What do you think of the S_S wagon then?

I am probably warming up to join it, but I need a VC.

See, my lynch pool is in S_S/Maria/Datisi/FB. Everyone else I TR to some extent (as I said I won't be doing a full readlist, so you may take wild guesses on how the TRs are ordered for now). I have been leaning Scum on S_S from the start (I don't remember the exact post(s), but I got the impression he was trying to manipulate something), and then the SR was still intact when I looked at certain VC counts (that made sense for the team to be in this lynch pool) and he was mainly not voting in all 3 of them (the scum that stays off wagons while his partners fish for the desired mislynch that would stick), and then came his sudden rush to lynch the Turkey when he had not wanted to earlier (also not wanting to lynch the SK could come from scum as I've explained in my response to... erm.. PB?? Either him or lillith) as it would from town (skitter wanting to leash him makes sense from town too). I mean, wanting to lynch/save the SK both could come from Town/Scum, but it's odd for town to not want to lynch the SK and then want to lynch them when they retract the claim.

All in all, I think S_S is a fine lynch.

On another note: LET NO ONE FORGET THAT I AM NOT THE HIDER, BUT IF I WAS I'D BE HIDING BEHIND MARIA.

[Almost50]

Also does the retraction have any impact on your take on Lilith?

I don't see the link between the two.

[Almost50]

I may very well be an idiot but I think the monkey is town

Why not both???

Disclaimer: SORRY! It's just the way I pull my friends legs. Please don't be offended, for I certainly do not really think you're an idiot.

[Almost50]

So... I'm fully caught up now. I dunno if I should put S_S @L-1 before I log off and hit the hay though. My vote is on him in spirit, so I would request that he claims when he comes online and not have to wait for the formality of being actually @L-1

[Almost50]

Oh, yeah. It was 605 that first pinged me from S_S. Him calling it a low risk high reward strategy when I had thought the opposite (and so did Bingle) felt manipulative, as it is indeed a high risk low reward to have us all claim hypothetical targets as it it does out everyone who said they'd target scum and didn't die as scum. It also gives scum themselves the opportunity to lay the grounds for a fake claim in case there was no Hider in play. Like, they claim targeting each other, and once they know there is no Hider one of them fake claims Hider and clears the other. And now that Bingle has -once again- put my total ignorance of how NAR works under the microscope I can see that EVEN if said partner was somehow killed and flipped red it could be chalked on the Bus Driver having switched them with a townie. If the fake claimer is the one that flipped it's no hard guilty either, for they were faking. I dunno how S_S decided that was a plausible route to pursue.

[Almost50]

And these were the precise VCs I checked (I had copied them into my file so I'd have to re-ISO ofrhz if you needed links, but I think this will do and you can verify them yourself if you need to):

Bingle [4]: Menalque, PenguinPower, gobbledygook, Firebringer,
Menalque [3]: skitter30, Datisi, Bingle,
PenguinPower [3]: Blake Belladonna, lilith2013, MariaR,

Not Voting [3]: Something_Smart, Pink Ball, Chemist1422,
-------------------------------------
gobbledygook [5]: Bingle, Datisi, PenguinPower, Menalque, MariaR, [L-2]
Bingle [2]: Firebringer, gobbledygook,
PenguinPower [2]: Blake Belladonna, lilith2013,
MariaR [1]: skitter30,

Not Voting [3]: Something_Smart, Pink Ball, Chemist1422,
-------------------------------------
gobbledygook [4]: Bingle, Datisi, Menalque, Pink Ball,
MariaR [2]: gobbledygook, skitter30,
skitter30 [2]: Blake Belladonna, MariaR,
Something_Smart [1]: Firebringer,
PenguinPower [1]: lilith2013,
Menalque [1]: PenguinPower,

Not Voting [2]: Something_Smart, Chemist1422,

[Almost50]

And now I'm off for real. (Going to bed at 11:35 am is a blessing, don't you think?)

@Menalque: Once again I do sincerely apologize if my 2005 offended you in any way. If it did, just say so (even by PM or via the mod) and I will no longer try being funny in this manner with you.

[Almost50]

VOTE: Maria

I have doubts now about S_S being Scum here. Not that I TR him, but there's reasonable doubt in mind after reading his new posts (especially how he responds to lillith).

Maria on the other hand is doing her thing of flying under the radar. She's here by name but has no presence at all. She's not pushing anything, not debating or arguing a point. She's probably content with the game status and more likely is counting on the BD to switch her with someone else in case I was really the Hider.

We still have more than 5 days to deadline, so I believe a new wagon is very much an option, and I think Maria is the best one at this time.

Views?

[Almost50]

@Blake: My point about Maria staying silent about me announcing I'm targeting her is the strongest point in my view. If I were to say I am targeting Blake tonight, how would you react? Would you say something like "That's fine by me" or "I would rather you didn't announce that in case there's a BD"? Or would you just ignore it and not comment about it? Assuming you're Town in that case, I mean.

Maria didn't even try to engage me -as of yet- and didn't actually engage anyone in any AI manner so far. If she was a PT (thus trying to avoid being a loud voice on D1) she knows well that Scum will most likely target her with something or another tonight for that. Like, if I was Scum and Maria wasn't on my team and I saw her doing practically nothing I would most certainly kill or RB her just to be safe. If there's no JOAT in play killing her N1 seems like the only option though.

Maria's no noob as either alignment and she knows exactly what she's doing and what the consequences are. She also knows it's hard to get her lynched without a hard guilty on her.

The second point is regarding her vote on gobble without saying a thing about S_S (the counterwagon) at all. ISO her. She says she wants gobble or skitter and no mention of S_S (neither positive or negative) at all. That's probably her keeping her options wide open in the future to go back and push S_S (if he is Town) or even bus him (if he is Scum and she needs the towncred to get to endgame).

I mean, I could vote S_S to L-1 and force a claim out of him now if that's what people want me to do, but if S_S is town I think it's best to keep his role for himself.

[Almost50]

Does anyone know if Maria does play for pocketing people?

Maria has a wide range of play styles she could almost do anything IMHO.

[Almost50]

I agree there are many of us that may seem like high priority kills, but that's kind of my point too. If you know chances are slim that you would be the NK on N1 due to the pl being stacked, then why the hell try to single out yourself for being the least contributor of the list? If you are town scum will deduce that you are more likely a valuable PR than those who are active and contributing.

As for why Maria? It's because I struggle to get a read on her every time we play together. I think I wrote you off as group scum somewhere in the opening 40-50 pages of the game, and had you promoted to a full TR somewhere later (I do have the markers on my file, but I don't recall the specific posts. You have one small and big pluses, thus a TR of some sort of strength)

[Almost50]

I only have one minus next to Maria's name and a remark that say "most posts are NAI"

[Almost50]

Now about this TR you have on me. I claimed Scum. The same thing I did in that game where you SR me the minute I subbed in. WHAT DIFFERENCE did you see here that wasn't there is my question.

i'm not sure what game that was but you feel like town!you here

Jazz Mafia

[Almost50]

Blake is scum with lilith. Can we lynch gobble and move on?

Y'know sometimes I question my own ability to comprehend plain English text. Other times I suspect the person is either not thinking straight or pulling a prank. In this case I think it's both.

[Almost50]

I probably need to go back and check why I TR PB & lillith in the fist place (lillith I am not familiar with, so it must've been something generally townie).

HOWEVER, if BOTH are defending S_S (PB doing it indirectly though) they can't both be scum with S_S (OK.. they can, but it's extremely unlikely), and I'm more confused than when I was when I had just finished catching up.

@PB: It's a 50-50 that gobble is the SK. He did fake claim scum with lavender in a recent game (faked a slip) in order to get her lynched on D1, and he got lynched instead and flipped green. In short, silly gambits are NOT out of Town!Turkey's range.

Now let's consider the 50$ chance he is indeed the SK. Turkey -as outed 3P- has a history of siding by town. I witnessed it myself too, and I was frustrated because I was a member of the Mafia team in that game (he was culted), so EVEN IF gobble is a SK I would still be reluctant to lynch him on D1.

Summing the two points I think it is a bad move (lazy at best) to lynch him today.

@Blake/Menalque: If you two check this you would probably notice PP is indeed GREEN.

[Almost50]

PP could easily have been sorted at night. NOBODY would expect a Gunsmith/Role Cop/Tracker or even Jailer to be on him over the majority of other players. UNLIKE Maria who KNOWS she would be targeted by the "opposing team" no matter what her alignment is.

Like, do I have to say everything out loud? This is a competent enough players list everyone should already know what they're supposed to do. Saying things out loud just helps SCUM more. *Sigh*

[Almost50]

We should be focusing on the potential "scum masterminds" today, and leave the "unlikely to be the strongest player of the scum team" to night action.

[Almost50]

Generally speaking (i.e. disregarding my own reads) I'd say skitter/Maria/Bingle/S_S are. (You may add me if you want to, but I don't want to look like I'm full of myself.. although it might as well be the case)

And that's not to say the rest are not good enough as scum, but if any of those 4 is scum they're likely to assume leadership of the team AND to have a plan already.

[Almost50]

I'd say skitter/Maria/Bingle/S_S are.

Don’t make Blake’s list of priority nightkills or the monkey’s list of scum masterminds, what do I even bother playing for

As I said, it doesn't mean anyone else is of a lesser skill, but would you say you would assume leadership of the team if any of these 4 was on it? I mean, if it makes you feel better you are indeed the 5th name I thought of, but then I would have had named half the players list.

P-edit: Alright then. You're officially on the list.

[Almost50]

Nightkills? Is that ALL there is to it?? How about who is what role and whom are their targets? How about who is the SK, who are they killing, and when would be best to take them out? And how about fishing for semi-safe fakeclaims for the team in case one of them is being wagoned?

I a recent game (one that we lost.. Notebook) Bingle was Scum with me, and he was lynched on D1, yet if I had followed his advice which he did leave in the scum PT we would have probably been in a MUCH better position come D3. My mistake was to go rogue and assume leadership after he was removed from the PT. (FTR, Bingle has beat me every single time he rolled scum against Town!me)

[Almost50]

a50 are u scumreading maria just because ur scared of her scum.

No, no. I did explain why I SR Maria here. I do very much account for her scumgame. That much is true. But I do not actually try to lynch her for no reason other than it. I think Maria is Scum here because she is absent, has made no real pushes, no solid stances, and has not engaged with anyone seriously (and hasn't engaged with me in particular)

[Almost50]

Oh, and let alone her awkward. "I did not roll SK so I'm less motivated"?? I mean, this is a trademark FB entrance, not Maria's.

[Almost50]

she just seems disinterested in the game and wants a flip. Why do u think this is scummy?

Where is her push for said flip? If she thought gobble's flip will enhance her ability to scumhunt she would have pushed it more. But she's only voting him without trying to convince those who aren't. Saying she wants a flip is borderline saying she is scum who is after any given lynch that is not on her or her team.

[Almost50]

and i don't think its fair to say she has made no pushes? She has been calling for gobbles lynch for awhile now.

Really?? Ok. Let's lynch FB. THERE. I made a push on you.

[Almost50]

Maria was voting PP at one point, then when gobble's wagon gained momentum she hopped on it, then she switched to skitter.. and that's just me remembering things based on the VCs I had copied to my file without actually ISOing the mod at this time. Now she's back on gobble, but she hasn't been "pushing" it. It's like she wants it to happen with no responsibility whatsoever on her. Or maybe she doesn't want to be loud about it in case gobble is really the SK and town decides to spare him (because now if they have a BusDriver they would be forced to switch Maria with someone, i.e. limiting their pool for the night) and if they don't she'd be officially screwed.

[Almost50]

and i don't think its fair to say she has made no pushes? She has been calling for gobbles lynch for awhile now.

Really?? Ok. Let's lynch FB. THERE. I made a push on you.

WE AGREED IN THE PT TO NO BUSSING MR A50

Geez, I missed that post. SORRY!

[Almost50]

Maria, you 'shaded" gobble (asking him to explain his stances). You then voted him but quickly switched to skitter saying you are starting to doubt your SR on him. You then put him on L-2 9and faked L-1, which some would consider fishing for a claim mind you). You then -once again- switched to skitter, and finally you are back on gobble.

Aside from you voting pattern, I don't see the inquisitive Maria, nor do I see the confrontational Maria either. It's like you're being a pale shadow of yourself. You aren't asking questions or making convoluted deductions. You are there but not really there.

[Almost50]

Looking for places to move

You too? Is everybody reallocating of late? I mean, I seem to recall FL was, and then skitter, and now you.

Anyway, good luck finding a new place, and good luck also with college stuff. Now when can we expect you to have some time and energy for this game?

[Almost50]

I don't feel like dragging the day any longer. If it's decided it's decided. *Sigh*

VOTE: gobble

Let's see if A50/Mena/skitter were right about the Turkey

[Almost50]

ATTENTION ALL TOWN PRS: WHEN CHOOSING YOUR TARGET, PLEASE BEWARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE BUSDRIVER. THANK YOU.

[Almost50]

Also, UNLESS gobble flips MAFIA (very slim chance of that) there is at least one (more likely 2) scums on his wagon.

[Almost50]

gobbledygook has been hammered!

He was a

Vanilla Townie

No fucking shit!

[Almost50]

Pink Ball died during the night!

He was a

Vanilla Townie

Interesting choice for a NK

[Almost50]

I'll catch up in my usual way, so please hold for a few minutes

[Almost50]

Weird kill

It is indeed.

[Almost50]

In your memory does skitt normally play for wifom?

skitter goes for optimal night action in my experience. Also the only reason I can think of for killing PB is to guarantee the NK goes through, as he was most unlikely to be protected by a Doctor (if in play). Now that I think about it maybe they thought I was gonna hide behind him, despite me asserting if I was a Hider I'd be hiding behind Maria? The last possibility is that they thought he crumbed something which went under my nose undetected. because 2 & 3 sound silly from where I stand I think it's just to make sure the kill went through.

[Almost50]

I was poisoned last night guys

Wrong thread.

[Almost50]

Why did you hammer so early A50? Also can you vote lilith please

Because it was inevitable and I didn't want to spend 4-5 more days debating if we would lynch gobbles no or wait until deadline to do it.

VOTE: lillith

[Almost50]

WAIT THE FREAK UP! I totally forgot about the BUSDRIVER. I think the PB kill almost confirms he was busdriven with the original kill target.

OK, so Mafia switched one of theirs with PB, SK shot at said Mafia and hit PB instead. That means Menalque is Scum who shot at lillith and she didn't die so suspects she is the SK. How does that sound?

P.S. I TR Menalque's play though, but I can't resist the urge for my mind going places here.

[Almost50]

I mean, if there is no SK and IF we don't have a Vig (or we have one that holstered last night) then I dunno why PB dies over the rest of us to be quite honest. That kill almost always is a result of a busdrive action, and if it is then where did the Mafia kill go?

[Almost50]

@lillith: Just oblige me, OK? If you are the SK it's time to come clean and say who you intended to shoot last night, and we can lynch that. Otherwise I don't know how to solve this puzzle of having only one NK AND it being on PB precisely.

You suggest PB was the SK kill?? Fine. Now where the hell did the Mafia kill go?

Your posts have a subtle unspoken message that reads (I shot PB and I am willing to work with the Mafia) which -while cannot be directly deduced or proven- I would be willing to work off it and actually lynch you here, unless you do come clean and try to work with the TOWN.

Note: If my theory is true you're already done with. You either get lynched today or get shot tonight (depending on whether you side by Mafia or Town). I understand either way, since -if you are the SK- you have virtually no chance of winning this by now.

[Almost50]

My theory is lillith intended to shoot in Menalque/Blake, btw. I could be wrong and living in another dimension, but it won't stop me from exploring this route unless I'm provided with one that sounds more likely.

[Almost50]

OK, so where do you think the Mafia kill went; assuming PB was killed by the SK as you proposed?

---

Spoiler: Mod VC

lilith2013 [4]:

Menalque [2433], Datisi [2465], Almost50 [2467], PenguinPower [2470]

-- [L-2]

Something_Smart [2]:

skitter30 [2389], Firebringer [2424]

Not Voting [5]:

Bingle, MariaR, Something_Smart, lilith2013, Blake Belladonna

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to hammer.

[Almost50]

OK. skitter's claim only tells me there's less of a chance we have an SK. HOWEVER, Mafia still didn't know that and would have still assumed it was an SK kill (I agree lillith saying that increases her chances of being Mafia) and they may still have suspected their own shot failed because it hit the SK (with them already thinking there is one).

The major change here is if lillith flips Mafia Menalque is almost confirmed a townie, because there's absolutely no need for him to have bused in that case given the game status.

[Almost50]

i really don't like being vig, it feels like a lot of pressure and i don't want to mess it all up by hitting the strongest investigative role or something by mistake :/

FTR, I would have holstered if I were you. Vig shooting blindly on N1 is not a good idea IMHO. If we have had NO KILL last night the game status would have been a lot different too and "maybe" scum would have pushed their kill target as an SK then. Not saying you did anything wrong. Just stating what I would have thought and done for the record.

[Almost50]

OWEVER, Mafia still didn't know that and would have still assumed it was an SK kill (I agree lillith saying that increases her chances of being Mafia)

i think (?) we're saying the same thing?

I mean, I did say "I agree" implying that we are saying the same thing.

[Almost50]

there’s a 50% chance of there being an SK.... vs like a 5% chance of a vig. like in most universes we do have an SK?

I don't get where you got those %ages, but I'd say the Vig has a way higher probability than 5%. Just ONE rolle of a K (10% each roll * 7 rolls = 70%, then divided by 2 because it's a 50-50 Vig/Vengeful = 35%. Assuming one K was rolled (10%) another K is 60% (60% total) but in that case we would be guaranteed BOTH Vig AND Vengful, but I'm not going to take this into account. Just the first part tells me we have

at least

a 35% chance of having a Vig in play).

[Almost50]

ok but we dont' know that yet so i don't want to rule out those things yet

i know i'm a pr
there's likely a doc/commuter/etc

so two PR's, and TTTTT or fewer, and that's all i'm comfortable assuming just yet

You know me, so you'll probably understand I won't rule out 6T unless we do have a second PR flip/claim. Theoretically is could still be 6T with scum deciding to holster to see if there's another kill to decide if they are in 6T or 7T themselves, while giving town the false impression that there might be a Doctor or there is not a SK (Too convoluted? Yes. Unlikey? Yes. Possible? Definitely YES).

Like this is why I'm good at Scum. I do things that are considered last likely and are automatically rules out. It's also probably part of why I get SR'd as Town because I do consider what I might do as scum.

In short, the only setup I am excluding now is 7T

And while at it (and this is not directed at skitter, but is a general statement) I "sometimes" may FOS someone I suspect are a TPR (as Town, that is) to give scum the false impression they might still mislynch that person, so as to make it less likely for then to shoot that person. So, if I suddenly decide to keep skitter in my PoE while nobody else is willing to go there you know what I'm doing.

[Almost50]

i don't want the day to end like before i talk to a50 about who he thinks i ought to kill

Like, tight now I have at last two reasons to recommend that you don't shoot anyone on N2 (or if you do then it's goes unannounced and uncrumbed). First reason is I do not have one single genuine

strong

SR. This means I only have a bunch of TRs and some sort of a PoE list, which i not good enough to say "Shoot X, They're either scum or in confirms Y is scum".

The second reason is we have yet to rule out the BD, and if there is a BD then you do NOT announce your target beforehand, EVEN if it was a Scum player. In fact, "if I was scum myself" I would let you shoot said target (provided it's not the BD themselves) to give you the false impression there is no BD. Don't forget the BD is ONE SHOT, so it has to be used strategically. Now if your announced target is not scum, I'd say scum may switch them with someone of a higher priority for them to kill, and that includes yourself. Coupled with they own NK that's then having 2 of their desired "elimination list" removed in the same night, and if they also have a JOAT they can RB a third and tonight will be their best night ever.

Your one and only problem is you do not think as Scum when you roll town. You think as Town and only as town. Try imagining that you are scum and do the planning you would considering what you know, and will probably be able to see a lot of what we sometimes miss because we are thinking from a purely town perspective.

P.S. Do I even make sense above? I feel like I've typed a lot trying to explain too little. Whatever.

[Almost50]

i don't want the day to end like before i talk to a50 about who he thinks i ought to kill
and mena that scenario is lowkey ridiculous, sorry

i'm p confident there's at least one scum in the original gobbles wagon, as well as the final gobbles wagon, so i'd like to concentrate there

(S_S, mariaR, fire) if lilith reds?

before

i talk to a50

I mean, this is indeed my PoE (plus Datisi) but I would still strongly recommend that you holster. Unless someone decides to claim Commuter and that they're Commuting tonight (well, even that could be a bluff with a JOAT in play, so they can RB you and then that fake Commuter claim is falsely verified)

[Almost50]

Datisi, skitter - town
Blake, bingle
A50 - townlean
S_S - null
Firebringer, mariaR, PP - nullscum
Lilith - scum

I think this is /probably/ very right or very wrong and there’s only one way to find out!

Yes, and that is to wait for endgame and find out.

[Almost50]

https://imgflip.com/i/45btzw

I couldn’t make it appear using the normal img tags but pls enjoy this meme I made

WARNING! NOBODY CLICK THAT LINK!

Reason: That guy is not wearing a mask.

[Almost50]

hmmmm ngl i was expecting more people to inform me i'm an sk

If it makes you feel better; you're the SK.

But seriously, claiming the kill on PB is too poor a play of you were the SK, not only because you have just set yourself as a target for the scum team (well, that could be chalked up on you realizing they actually shot you so they know who you are anyway), but also because it stopped a certain someone from going places with their wild theories (which would have been beneficial to you if you kept them going for a while). Finally, SK you would have to explain your kills from now on, or would have to holster (if you follow my advice) which will certainly hold you back for longer (which means the scum team influence will increase if we don't lynch them, or the town becomes more ready to lycnh you if we do lynch scum). I simply can't see you making such a poor move if you were the SK.

[Almost50]

Like 4 Ts or 3Ts are the most likely outcomes, yes? I’m pretty sure bingle/ddl ran the math on that in C9++

So if we’ve ruled out that we’re in 7 or 6 Ts and we know that 0 or 1 Ts are unlikely, it means that unless we’re in 2 or 5 there’s no bus driver

It is in fact a bell curve, yes.

AP says he loves curves

[Almost50]

I kinda think either we have a solve or there’s like the entire scumteam in (bingle, Blake, skitter, A50) and the game is deeply fucked

You just need to explain why and Maria are both still alive if any combination of that pool is scum together.

[Almost50]

Is it not fun to click submit 4 times for your post to finally go through?

[Almost50]

I kinda think either we have a solve or there’s like the entire scumteam in (bingle, Blake, skitter, A50) and the game is deeply fucked

You just need to explain why and Maria are both still alive if any combination of that pool is scum together.

Why who and Maria are still alive?

*Why YOU and Maria.

[Almost50]

@skitter: Why S_S over lillith? Or are you trying to see who is willing to vote whom?? I don't get it.

Basically we were in agreement (saying the same thing) about lillith before you decided to raise a couterwagon on S_S, and this is what I'm asking about.

[Almost50]

I probably would be willing to vote S_S (depending on the level of his engagement in the game today and what content he provides). I don't think it's impossible to get the wagon on him going, but I think it better to be on lillith at this time (for ME to be on lillith, that is. You do you).

[Almost50]

Warning: I am practically "brain dead" today. It's 40 Celsius today and I've slept over 12 hours and I feel more exhausted (body & brain) than I was before I went to sleep. (Just wanted to say that in advance in case I posted something that didn't make sense and/or sounded totally irrelevant, although I don't even feel lik talking too much)

[Almost50]

I’d much rather you just shot him tbh

NOT, unless we flip exactly the BD today (in which case I retract my "do not shoot" recommendation but will still request the target goes unannounced. The worst the scum can do if they don't have a BD is block the shot, and if they do they may as well have blocked one on a townie if the target is unannounced beforehand, which means other townies (read: TPRs) can act freely. The problem at hand is we don't know if scum do/don't have a BD, so the only way we'd be sure of the game status is if we do lynch someone who flips Bus Driver.

[Almost50]

A50, holstering from skitts just lets the scumteam know they can use the theoretical BD as a strongman.

Agreed, but it would still be just ONE kill (and the BD is one shot anyway, so giving them a strongman shot in exchange of saving a townie is worth it IMHO)

@skitter: Bingle is saying scum knowing you won't act can BD their intended NK with someone (in case the target had a Doctor on it) and then shoot the other person (which will now be the original intended target after the switch) while the Doctor would be actually protecting the other person 9now in the original target's slot after the switch)

[Almost50]

Oh ffs I forgot about the rb

It's ok. I forgot the BD at the start of the day. It's a confusing setup, especially to those who played C9++ before

[Almost50]

VOTE: S_S

L-2

If Bingle is spot on then S_S/Maria should be on lillith, and lillith may or may not vote S_S (survival vs TRing S_S), so Datisi is probably the decider.

[Almost50]

[Almost50]

S_S flip should help me (and many others) better my/their reads. lillith probably doesn't get to LyLo either way.

[Almost50]

And if lillith is Town and wrongfully TRing S_S she will reconsider all her reads. The only problem here is if lillith is Scum and S_S is Town.

[Almost50]

Worthy of note that both wagons got to L-2 with both lynch candidates NOT VOTING. Chances are higher than average both are scum.

Also noteworthy is that Maria prefers lillith over S_S. lillith the Goon??

[Almost50]

VOTE: Maria

@Menalque: Vote with me ans skitter, please. Anyone else is welcome to join too.

[Almost50]

VOTE: Maria

@Menalque: Vote with me ans skitter, please. Anyone else is welcome to join too.

Why calling out to me specifically monkey man?

I didn't ask you that when you made 2456. I also said I was sheeping you at some point (1972) and would expect you to return the favor rather than posture.

[Almost50]

VOTE: bingle

Sorry, skitts, but I'm not gonna sheep you on this one. Bingle not trying to take control of the game is town indicative of him. Of course, he may not feel the need to do it because the town is doing scum's work for them, but in that case the other scum is/are in our town reads, which I find to be an even harder proposition. Like, does something like Bingle + PP/menalque (or both) look feasible to you?

[Almost50]

Of course, he may not feel the need to do it because the town is doing scum's work for them,

ok but in the town!ss and town!lilith universes that townie would be me, no?
i'm not sure why this would necessitate a scum in the townreads

Because who else is scum with Bingle? Everybody else has been pushed, aside from FB and Bingle himself.

[Almost50]

The question is: If we were pushing a scum partner of Bingle, why did not Bingle intervene to assist his p and redirect the pressure elsewhere. Bingle is pretty good at directing the flow when he is scum.

[Almost50]

bingle/lilith?

Then why aren't we lynching lillith again?? I thought we were talking off the assumption S_S/lillith was T/T

[Almost50]

@vla through sunday

work + weekend plans gonna keep me busy.

Why are you telling

vla

your plans?

[Almost50]

UNVOTE:

I bet that there ARE scum in this game. I mean, that's a given. Right??

[Almost50]

The problem is no one makes sense as scum with anyone else. I get the feeling we are in 6T and there are only 2 of them, maybe? Could this be why I fail to see a "team" associative tells?

[Almost50]

But if that is the case then skitter is our only TPR, and we are likely playing a semi-mountainous game. Remind me who said it was like 5% we had a Vig? Was it lillith?? Because THAT is a scum claim if we are indeed in 6T.

[Almost50]

there’s a 50% chance of there being an SK.... vs like a 5% chance of a vig. like in most universes we do have an SK?

Oh, yes it was lillith.

VOTE: lillith

Also worth noting 50% chance of there being a SK goes with scum team being of two but not knowing whether it's 6T or 7T. Either way, scum!lillith wanted to lynch the killing role that's not on her team. I could even buy -in theory- scum shot skitter last night and thus know she is SK not Vig, but I'll be frank: I TR skitter the most here (by play) and thus would go for the less likely scenarios of (a) Scum also shot PB (??!!!) OR (b) Scum holstered to make absolutely sure there was only one kill if there is a SK and none if there isn't. (I think b makes more sense than a)

P-edit: Yeah, I know your math was off. I just wonder if it was an innocent mistake or done on purpose. You see, if you are scum (of 2) your mind will automatically concentrate on the SK, and -even more probably- it was discussed in the scum PT when you decided to holster.

Also, why holster? Well, aside from finding out if there is a SK, scum know we have ONE PR at most. That could be a Tracker, for instance. So they wait and see if they can spot that PR if there were no NKs and turn the game to mountainous and not fear being caught by night action at all.

I kno it's just a theory, but it's the one I'm following right now.

[Almost50]

Yeah, that was stupid of me. I just claimed VT inadvertently. Can I take it back???

[Almost50]

My "broad" lynch pool is in Bingle/S_S/Datisi, but realistically I can't see past S_S being the JOAT. The only time S_S voted was for gobble, He even refused to vote lillith while being the counterwagon.

Also S_S is the only one who had the motive to actually shoot skitter here. Bingle would have probably let her shoot another night at least (unlikely for her to shoot him and he likes to play it risky anyway), and Datisi wasn't even in skitter's pool for shots, so even less likely to have killed her over Blake.

I also agree that both Maria & Blake are mechanically most likely town (but I'll keep SRing Maria anyway because it's a ...)

Spoiler:

[Almost50]

Also reminder: Theoretically speaking, there's still an infinitesimal chance we have a silent SK (I probably would have gone down that route in this game status), but realistically we should be in TTTTK??

[Almost50]

Also S_S is the only one who had the motive to actually shoot skitter here.

Apart from, y’know, firebringer?

I think skitter was ALWAYS going to shoot in FB/S_S anyway. My question would be WHY did the JOAT not block her? And I guess occam's razor is that they already used the RB shot on N1

[Almost50]

Why is PP not in your pool monkey?

Has he ever been? PP is town to me. Not as Town as sjitter was, but Town none-the-less

[Almost50]

Oh, and I also have other "speculations" I have, but I think it anti-town to reveal at this time, as those would be regarding exactly what type(s) of PRs we still have alive.

[Almost50]

It's entirely possible that the scumteam suspect that I was the one who blocked their kill on night one, so they roleblocked me instead night two.

Say no more. We do NOT want the remaining Scum to be able to figure what you are/aren't. Please go silent on this.

[Almost50]

@Bingle/Menalque: You both had S_S at the very bottom of your readlists at one point or another. Please go back and check why that was and what has changed that indicates S_S might not be scum after all. I think that FB was distancing with S_S because he knows it's harder to lynch him than lillith. Even when there was no pressure on S_S yet FB was voting there (vanity wagon), so that's another thing there, and it explains why the S_S vs lillith wagons got stagnant for a long time. It was because it was a S vs S situation and both refused to vote each other.

[Almost50]

I don't think SS/Lilith was S/S.

Based on what? And why did lillith refuse to vote S_S when it was the only way to save herself?

[Almost50]

Btw, if we do lynch the JOAT and the game isn't over then BINGLE is the SK. I know it's a very very unlikely scenario to begin with, but if it is the case then Bingle is the ONLY player in this player list who would adopt the holstering policy to hide his existence as SK.

[Almost50]

@a50 vote S_S then?

Is it not my turn to hammer? Or are we giving Datisi this chance?

[Almost50]

Btw, if we do lynch the JOAT and the game isn't over then BINGLE is the SK. I know it's a very very unlikely scenario to begin with, but if it is the case then Bingle is the ONLY player in this player list who would adopt the holstering policy to hide his existence as SK.

I'd've shot Blake last night, tbh. She's a claimed PR and she has a history of not only catching me but getting me lynched.

OF COURSE you'd argue against that AS SK. Geez, man. I said "if we lynch the JOAT and the game doesn't end", so Town!You had absolutely no reason to refute that!!!

[Almost50]

And why did lillith refuse to vote S_S when it was the only way to save herself?

Because then she couldn't make the "I'm not scum because I'm not voting my cw" argument and she could leave behind the obvious association you're following.

The narrative just falls apart if SS is actually scum though.

Straight up: Which is better? To get a mislynch today at the expense of Goon!You being lynched tomorrow (or vigged at night)? Or AVOIDING THE MISLYNCH so you can "maybe" argue you're not scum, and then pick the one fake claim that would get you lynched 10 times out of 10?

I think lillith is still rusty after coming out of her hiatus, and that was proven by her fake claim, which leads me to believe she also wouldn't have thought of "not voting her counterwagon to argue she can't be scum because of that AND to setup the lynch of S_S in the future"

[Almost50]

Does A50 have a fetish for insulting scum!me? I am beginning to wonder

Not at all, but I have not been scum with you, and scum!you has not beat me 3 times in a row (and manage to lynch me in LyLo despite a Cop clear on me). Perhaps I'm underestimating your scum game because I haven't seen it frequently enough?

[Almost50]

Bingle isn't groups scum because FB wouldn't have been the 4th vote on his wagon (even if it was RVS) with Bingle the JOAT. Also if Bingle was scum lillith eoulf have never claimed Vengeful of all available fake claims.

Blake isn't group scum because she wouldn't have panicked to the idea lillith may have venge killed her, and vlaiming a PR at that point was suboptimal play for scum!her

Maria isn't group scum because she was the alternative lynch to both lillith and S_S, and -similar to Bingle- I don't think lillith claims vengeful if Maria was on her team (not to mention Maria wanted lillith lynched and it didn't look like a bus to me)

Menalque isn't group scum because his general play does not have an agenda. If he was the JOAT he would not be throwing himself in the center of almost every occurring in the game.

Penguin isn't scum because this is certainly not his scum meta, and he has not made a single move from the infamous "PP Scum Play Guide"

This means I have S_S/Datisi as the remaining suspects, and I have no case (other than PoE) for Datisi to be scum here.

Theoretically anyone could be SK (IF there is one) but to adopt a no killing policy from the get go would not be my idea of how anyone would play it, with the exception of Bingle. HOWEVER, if the SK exists AND they should PB on N1 (because that's what the SK does. Kill people who are unlikely to be shot by the MAFIA) THEN I might consider a broader pool of players who may have used that to adapt and change their play policy accordingly. Still, SK!Maria for instance would not have shot PB over most anyone else, I think, and neither would have PP tbh.

Disclaimer: I maybe talking out of my arse here. I do not claim to be fluent at predicting everyone's moves as <insert role here> and I know my own decisions would have depended greatly on the game status, so maybe I am way off base? I dunno

[Almost50]

I actually could see A50 as scum quite easily

You really think Scum me would restart the push on my p (lillith) after it looked like it had diminished? And you think scum!me would go easy on Town!Maria rather than choke her to death there?? Do you think I let lillith claim vengeful???? Finally, do you really think I shoot PB on N1 over everyone else??

[Almost50]

Finally, do you really think I shoot PB on N1 over everyone else??

SKITTER SHOT PB

Keep up

The rest is sort of compelling but also you were the first to deflect away (or like encouraging people not to) and your vote history also isn’t great in a similar way to datisi’s not being great

Also tbh I have no idea who let’s lilith claim vengeful there and I kind of think the answer is either “no-one” or “maybe Blake or bingle or S_S”

1- True. skitter did shoot PB. The question is WHO did scum!me shoot (and get blocked)? The follow up question is why did I not shoot then again? And if I thought they were a Hider why not shoot someone else? Why would I EVER shoot skitter, who would have probably lynched/vig'd the whole damn roster over me? (Hint: "to make this argument" is never a good reason here. I stand to benefit A LOT more by keeping her alive to shoot people (trim the living numbers) AND still have her as a suspect for being the SK.

2- I won't argue my "voting history". I restarted/reignited lillith's lynch, and that is something I NEVER do to a scum p. Not EVER.

3- "No one" is an acceptable answer, but it instantly clears many players because we are known to be "scum masterminds" meaning we assume leadership in the scum team (unless someone else does). To be more clear i would happily let Bingle be the leader if I was scum with him (obviously that's not the case here), but in the case of FB/lillith I'd imagine neither would object to me taking over the leadership spot.

4- You yourself brought up a game (that I honestly don't remember) in which I supposedly bus'd you

for the win

. This alone proves (a) I do tend to assume leadership or at least be a loud voice in the scum PT, and (b) bus'ing is an art for me. I don't do it unless it's necessary and will bring me closer to the win. Now what did I gain from bus'ing lillith AND keepind FB in my limited lynch pool? You do know that I TR PP despite you and Bingle going the other way. Why did I not keep PP in the "nulls" at the very worst, and instead decided to bus both my partners so early?

5- Vengeful NEVER comes from Bingle. He knows how to pick a fake claim. He also knows how to read the game and push it in the direction he wants it to go, so wouldn't have lost BOTH his teammates in the same cycle.

I could have accepted your "half SR" on me as a way to actually protect me, except I've already outed myself as a VT (didn't mean to, btw) and we know now that we have 2-3 living PRs, so I'd be shocked to be the NK over anyone else.

[Almost50]

i've been sus of PP since Day 1 so i kinda see that. your logic Makes Sense i guess just as much as everyone else's Makes Sense - the problem is that people are reaching different conclusions and calling for different heads.

I don't actually get what it is, but something's wrong about you capitalizing "Make Sense" twice there.

[Almost50]

V/LA until further notice. The next heat wave is here and it doesn't look like it's going away anytime soon.

Does this mean you're wearing less clothes? Asking for a friend.

[Almost50]

this is the first time anyone in the game used third-person pronous to refer to me. fb used she. why? we don't talk outside of games, and the only time we played together was on the flying scumsman where everyone was consistently calling me he.

so again why? my thought was that in pregame, when he was talking with his scumbuddies, they referred to me as she and it stuck with him for the beginning of the game. lilith was calling me he, so it isn't her.

who's the only person on this playerlist that consistently calls me she?

Sir, I am honoured to extend this invitation for you to join us in our "Most Insane Players on MS Society" (MIPoMSS). It is collectively our opinion that you would make a WONDERFUL addition to our moto: Think bizarrely outside the box