Newbie 2072: All Guns Blazing!! - Ended

[Pavowski]

Hi all!

The statistical distribution of our names in the alphabet is all clumpy and weird, and Alstro is all alone at the front.

Does this mean something????

VOTE: Alstro

[Pavowski]

Yeah that's why I voted for the last of us alphabetically

That checks out

VOTE: Val

Since Val and Vote both start with V and linguistic logic will not be denied

[Pavowski]

I read that as a scum team accusation

Me too

In terms of Not_Mafia, then, maybe should we do the whole intent-to-hammer+claim shebang at E-2 instead of E-1 then...? More like an "intent to E-1"?

Intent to declare intent of declaration to intend

[Pavowski]

All,

I've played with some of you before, and I'm glad to see all two of you back for more. For those of you don't know me, allow me to introduce myself - my name is Val89, and I'm known for opening my games by posting what appears on it's surface to be a load of crap and can't possibly be alignment indicative, but actually completely deduces the scum team in my first post. If you don't beleive me, allow me to refer you to the game in question. Yes, a sample size of one, but that is 100% of the games I've played that aren't ongoing and thus fair game for discussion. Not bad odds, I am sure you will agree.

So, I have to say my attention has been immeadately drawn by not_mafia: Clearly, if we consider only alignment at this stage, ignoring the possibility of a serious mod error, there are only 2 possiblities: Not Mafia is mafia, or Not Mafia is not mafia.

There are 9 players in the setup, of which 2 are mafia. That makes the probablity of case A, that Not Mafia is Mafia, as 2/9ths; and conversely, case B, that Not Mafia is not mafia as 7/9s.

Let's now consider another Non-Not Mafia player from the list, lets say, for sake of example, Lukewarm. The same possibities apply - either Lukewarm is mafia, or Lukewarm is not mafia. But Lukewarm is not Not Mafia, because that would be against the site rules precluding playing in the same game under two different names, so Lukewarm HAS to mafia. This logic can be applied to any other player you substitue for Lukewarm, with the sole exception of Not Mafia, meaning that 8 out of 9 players in the game would have to be mafia. Clearly, this is a contridiction, and so our initial assumption is wrong.

If you instead consider the alternative posibilities that either Not Mafia is mafia, or that Not Mafia is not not mafia, then we resolve our contridication. While this doesn't give us any clues as to any of the other playerbase, returning to our example, Lukewarm being not mafia is fine, if not mafia is not Not Mafia. Thus, either Not Mafia is mafia, or Not Mafia is not Not Mafia, and since Not Mafia CLEARY IS Not Mafia, then Not Mafia is mafia. Easy

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Your logic is good, but have you considered the possibility that Not_Mafia is not(not[not mafia])?

I need an aspirin

[Pavowski]

7for7 is probably not the best way to play tbh

Oh, I agree completely, but 1for1 might well be reasonable, at least for the first couple of pages. I'll be sure to let you know if anything else pings my radar. I'm not adverse to adjusting my reads, particulary such early ones, if there is a reason to do so.

By the way, does anyone else have an opinion if Zyla's post counts as a potential Buzzword scumtell?

It's weird but I dunno if it's scummy. Does 7for7 count as a buzzword? It's a pretty odd reference to make, especially about Val's ... 1 for 1 claim?

For that matter, does "buzzword" count as a buzzword?

[Pavowski]

I still think since Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm, though. We can deal with him tomorrow.

This is probably the scummiest sentence I have read.

The idea that any town player would already be ready to decide who should be the Day 1 elim on page 2 baffles me

Not_Mafia is only at E-2, because he is voting for himself right now lol

What, even, is this interaction, coming on page 2, before the game is even three hours old?

Do we really think Val intends to elim Not_Mafia at this point in the game?

[Pavowski]

Normally the 'blowing up nothing into something' bit would ping scum for me, but I just don't think someone whose Topics List has so many games would fall into that trap. I also suspect that their questioning of me was a subtle way to try to sort me, which strikes me as town-like. So if I had to pick I'd give a TL, but everything is like scarcely off of null right now at this stage.

So you'd flag the Luke/Val kerfuffle as both players attempting to sort?

[Pavowski]

I just want clarify because I feel like I must be misunderstanding something here, your

I just want clarify because I feel like I must be misunderstanding something here, your

Yes?

The misunderstanding was so great it blew his hat off, give 'em a minute

[Pavowski]

Man. When I left it the Luke/Val thing felt town v town to me, but the fact that it's still going strong makes me .... less convinced. But since that truck seems firmly in the ditch, and I think it's early for anybody to be at e-2, let's try to change the subject a little bit.

UNVOTE: Val

Since Val and Vote both start with V and linguistic logic will not be denied

portia and pavowski both start with a p, which makes u teammates try to fight this undeniable logic

Why not vote yet in the game - do you normally not RVS.

I was wondering the same thing. Why no vote yet, Marci? You've certainly had the opportunity.

[Pavowski]

I'm also interested in the Umlaut / Not_Mafia crossvote; even though it feels like an RVS followed by a "no u" retaliation vote, there's this:

If I were voting seriously at this point, I'd be voting Lukewarm

Which implies either that NM is not voting seriously at this point, or that he's keeping his vote on Umlaut deliberately.

Then again NM claims to be here to troll, so what we can make of his posts must needs be taken with appropriate doses of salt.

Meanwhile Umlaut is on V/LA until tomorrow, I think, so I don't know where any of that goes.

[Pavowski]

Man. When I left it the Luke/Val thing felt town v town to me, but

the fact that it's still going strong makes me .... less convinced.

But since that truck seems firmly in the ditch, and I think it's early for anybody to be at e-2, let's try to change the subject a little bit.

which part of it isnt convincing, lukes side or val89s side?

To be honest, neither side looks particularly good after all that, but it honestly feels like Luke is trying to find a way to justify his case. I think Portia said he feels thoroughly tunneled, and I'd agree

[Pavowski]

After playing like 4-ish games with Not_Mafia, I am against a Day 1 Not_Mafia elim, and generally suspicious of people who lean into eliming him Day 1 -- he is an easy miselim target / angle for the scum team to push. Plus, I have also found him to be a pretty good scum hunter, and would like to see any pushes that he leans into before I personally try to sort him.

Although, I do not believe I have actually encountered scum Not_Mafia before

Is anybody actually making a case for a NM elim right now? The worst he's done from where I sit is not post very much and cast a reflexive vote on Umlaut

[Pavowski]

For now I'll shift to VOTE: Pavowski because of his relatively low content (except for Umlaut who is V/LA and Not_Mafia, of whom I have low expectations...)

I've been trying to evaluate things as I see them. What would you like to see out of me?

and portia and pavowski as well, ive noticed u havent rlly mentioned them

They are both in a "I need more content from them" category

From experience, Pavowski is not someone that I can read very well :/

In our first game, he replaced into a slot that I was pretty sure was town, and he tanked that read a bit in my eyes. It was in fact a town slot, so I am aware that I don't really read his posts as town, even when he is town

For what it's worth, I also tend to find Luke, like Dostoevsky, a difficult read

[Pavowski]

has anyone played with pavoski before, does he usually play in this laid back style?

I know you asked about me and didn't necessarily ask me directly, but seeing as things have quieted down a little bit today:

Early reads for me are based on not much and rely on parsing language for things that might or might not even be there (see the entirety of Luke/Val).

For now we're just jousting back and forth about innuendos and assumptions. (Which I guess some people put a lot of stock in, but I am skeptical how useful it is.)

Basically I'm still getting a feel for the people I don't know, and trying to separate out the meta from the ones I do. Any read I have would have a degree of confidence so low as to hardly bear mentioning.

[Pavowski]

Early reads for me are based on not much and rely on parsing language for things that might or might not even be there (see the entirety of Luke/Val).

For now we're just jousting back and forth about innuendos and assumptions. (Which I guess some people put a lot of stock in, but I am skeptical how useful it is.)

Basically I'm still getting a feel for the people I don't know, and trying to separate out the meta from the ones I do. Any read I have would have a degree of confidence so low as to hardly bear mentioning.

I understand this mind set, but when people take this approach to a game day 1, it results in an inactive game, and thus takes longer for the game to get to the point where you are comfortable with your reads.

I general, I find it more beneficial for players to be a bit fast and loose with their reads for the first half of Day 1. "This seems town" and "this seems scummy" for things that are not enough for a town or scum read in ELo -- players are voicing opinions, and people can ask themselves if those opinions make sense, and it can all be looked back on later.

Some thing that I have seen in our other game together (and I would say that I have seen this from town marci as well) is that you appear to hang back until you are sure of reads

I mean I agree with you in general, but I've tried to flag a few things that strike me about some players: (119, 122, 161). And this thread has been anything but *inactive*

Thing is, I'm not ready to do a deep dive on why player x is scummy or player y is towny at this point. That's not me hanging back until I'm *sure* of reads; I'll never get to that point. But I do like to have at least a basis for a read to go along with a gut feeling. Otherwise I'm flooding the thread with garbage I then have to walk back later on.

And, again, we're still early d1!

This does a few things:
--active scum can take control of the direction of the thread, because cautious townies are not trying to lead (see me orchestrating a miselim on Strange Day 1 in our previous game)
--you can get scum read by the town for not scum hunting (see Marci getting scum read in our last game)
--the scum ream can make a case against you stating that you are lurking (see me making a case against you in our previous game)

These are interesting points for you to make.

[Pavowski]

@Pav -- spoilered, because I feel like the discussion is entering like a "mafia theory" territory

Spoiler:

This thread has been anything but *inactive*
--------
These are interesting points for you to make.

If you removed the me v Val 1v1, there is a lot less going on -- and now that I have taken a step back from that, and it feels like no one else stepping forward to push us in a new direction.

I am trying to get other people to make pushes / apply pressure / ect -- on our last vote count over half the lobby was not voting for anyone (5/9), and of the votes that were out there, no one has more then 1 vote on them. So, no one is currently under pressure any pressure what so ever.

As it stands, I am left feeling like I could singlehandedly take full control of this thread -- which, if I were scum, would not be a good thing

I think that that is the single biggest difference I have found playing in Newbie Games vs other games. The majority of the lobby is playing a bit cautiously, as opposed to half the lobby loudly scum hunting, all pulling the discussion in various directions, so then the lobby can look at each direction and compare for themselves -- and decide which is the best option

You *have* taken control of the thread, though, for better or for worse.

Are you saying other games are better? I mean I guess newbie games are newbie games for a reason but you seem to be saying that cautious play is a bad thing and, well, maybe I just don't understand the ethos of this site but I'm not sure I agree. I like the pace of this game so far. I can actually follow it.

Anyway, I'll take a step further to say I think your tunnel on Val is misguided and your intent to continue it is scummy, and I now think there's scum on one side or the other of that little blow-up where I didn't originally.

I think Zyla is hanging back where she doesn't normally seem to, which is not a great look.

And while I think Portia maybe doesn't have the greatest manner (I'm still scratching my head over 166) he feels towny to me.

These are leans and gut reads and nothing more. But I agree with you, there are people I want to hear more from in this thread.

[Pavowski]

- My "intent to continue is scummy" -- can you explain that better? I have dropped it, and am currently looking in other directions -- my stated intent is to come back to it in a few days, and determine if I still think it is the scummiest thing I have seen Day 1. Do you think it would be less scummy for me to decide to just call Val town? Or to have kept pushing it without looking at other people?

- I also noticed this, and was keeping my eye on it. I looked back at our last game, and she seemed surprised herself that she found something to latch on to early -- have you played any other games with her?

-What feels townie coming from Portia? Any posts stand out?

1 -- your intent to continue signals to me that you've basically made your mind up on this one, and yeah, I think it's early for that. I'm not saying you could've or should've played it any other way, that ship has sailed.

2 -- The only games I have with her are the games the three of us were in, plus an ongoing normal we won't talk about. She feels less proactive this game. I don't love meta, though, as people can (and should) adjust their meta.

3 -- Nothing concrete, maybe it's just a similarity in playstyle with myself. As I mentioned I don't love the tone of how he jumped on you in 166, but I don't really see that coming from scum.

[Pavowski]

1 -- your intent to continue signals to me that you've basically made your mind up on this one, and yeah, I think it's early for that. I'm not saying you could've or should've played it any other way, that ship has sailed.

The reason I followed up on your first post was because you did not say "it is too early" you said it is "scummy"

Do you think scum!me would be more likely to make that play then town!me? And why?

See, this is what I mean about parsing words that don't necessarily mean anything. Yes, in my opinion it's too early to make up your mind about any particular player. Yes, I think it's scummy that you're tunneling *so hard* on Val and signaling intent to continue doing so. Those things are not exclusive; they are linked.

I think a townie looking out for town would move on from a bad push. They would certainly move on from pressure just meant to gather information. The fact you simply won't let it go reads more like scum pushing for a miselim.

[Pavowski]

For now I'll shift to VOTE: Pavowski because of his relatively low content (except for Umlaut who is V/LA and Not_Mafia, of whom I have low expectations...)

Pavowski

- null. i'm not quite sure about anything from them, from what they've posted nothing really seems scummy.. but the playstyle here just like is kinda offputting (he isnt the most active, and isnt contributing as much as i would like)

I just think it's interesting I'm getting pinged for low content by these two. I don't post as much as some, but the shoe is surely on the other foot (or feet) here.

Alstro dropped their vote and dipped for almost 24 hours now. I'm curious if there's anything at all behind it or if they were just hoping to get me to post more (in which case, I think I have). I think they're asking broad questions to give an appearance of scumhunting but I have no idea where they actually stand on anybody.

(Yeah, I know, given my recent posts this is a bit of pot and kettle, but it is what it is, and Marci asked.)

[Pavowski]

(Also, just totally off-topic, I feel certain I've made at least one mistake regarding people's pronouns somewhere in my posts and if I have, it's not intentional. I am trying!)

[Pavowski]

I am not sure why you think that that form of a question is meaningless tho

I'm sorry, I've lost the thread of what question we were originally talking about. I'm not sure it matters anymore at this point. To me, you were making a distinction without a difference when you pointed out in one post I called something "scummy" and in a subsequent post that "it was too early" to decide something.

[Pavowski]

WB Umlaut,

Okay, I'm skimming through the topic now. Quick remarks (writing as I go, so earlier comments may not reflect later read updates)


[*]192 -- "tunneling is scummy" is an odd take, do you think tunneling is actually >rand probable to come from scum?[/list]

I'm looking back over those posts you've referenced but since you asked, I have to agree with Portia's recent post:

As for the earlier question about how I could not like the 1v1 and still find it alignment/tone indicative, it has to do with duration.

It's not that the tunneling is scummy. It's that it went on too long, for my tastes, to be an information-gathering exercise and moved into "this feels motivated" territory, to the point where one of two things seems to have happened:
1) town!Luke has decided he's cornered scum here and doesn't want to let the chance to eliminate scum on d1 slip away, or
2) scum!Luke wants to get Val miselim'd for reasons

Neither would surprise me but given the tenor and the duration of the interaction I lean slightly toward #2 at the moment

[Pavowski]

In post 200, Pavowski wrote:
(Yeah, I know, given my recent posts this is a bit of pot and kettle, but it is what it is, and Marci asked.)

whats pot and kettle mean in these terms o-o i dont think ive seen anyone use it.

Bastardization of "the pot calling the kettle black", or in other words, I'm pointing out flaws in other players that could also be pointed out in me.

[Pavowski]

I’m most interested in sorting the Lebowski person.

Who?

Spoiler:

He means me; my username is a mashup of my actual name and one of my favorite movies, The Big Lebowski

[Pavowski]

Also, sorry all, I had some RL stuff happen today and I'm too tapped out for thinking, gonna come back and see how all this looks in the morning.

[Pavowski]

A self-vote? Yuck.

Luke, the fact you've played 2 nearly flawless games doesn't move me the way I think you want it to.

I think your read on Val is mostly confirmation bias if it isn't outright scummy. Your self-vote gives me pause as far as thinking you're scum, but seeing as you were nowhere near elimination when it happened, I am less moved.

While I agree that a Luke/Val elim probably yields good information today, I'm not sold on it for d1 yet.

[Pavowski]

but I agree that limming in {Luke, Val} is helpful

But if you limmed Val, and I flipped town, then you

still

wouldn't feel comfortable flipping Luke? How it is helpful in sorting the other slot, then?

A Val flip would give information for sorting Portia, Umlaut, and Marci in my opinion. Not so much info on Luke. A Luke flip, while I’m opposed to it, would admittedly give a ton of information on almost everyone. I do not need help sorting the other slot because I feel like I’ve pretty much already sorted it, but I acknowledge that a Luke flip would tell us a lot more than, say, an Umlaut flip or a Marci flip.

In other words: those two options would both give a ton of information which is why I think either could be useful, but I would prefer to lim Val because I’m pretty sure Luke is town. However, if everyone was like “nah let’s do Luke” I wouldn’t be thrilled but I would take the info.

I’ll agree to trust NM and VOTE: Val to stake my position but if it seems like we’re on track to hammer to fast this is coming off.

Sorry for any bad formatting I’m mobileposting.

At this point having read both the ISOs, I'm reasonably confident Luke is town. He has been the main instigator for most of this, and I would really not expect scum to keep bringing this up, going so hard, and drawing so much attention. He has also basically set himself up for an elim if Val flips town, which is not something that scum would do (unless this is next-level bussing, which I think there's just no way). He has also just been doing more productive in general besides the Val interaction. Now, that does include the possibility that this is TvT, and I'm honestly not convinced that it isn't. But if I had to pick, I would pick Val. I haven't seen a confirmed scum!Val yet, but I'm getting a really different vibe than 2068. It could in part be that Val didn't get as much serious heat in 2068. To summarize where I'm at, I'm TR on Luke and a slight SL on Val. I still don't have enough from Umlaut, Not_Mafia, and Portia to really feel confident about Val, but I agree that limming in {Luke, Val} is helpful and between the two would rather do Val.

I don't want to vote because that would bring Val to E-2 aka "NM E-1" and I don't want to go there when there is so much of the day left.

I am just curious it you are actually scumreading Val for anything in this thread or if, as you seem to say in 279, it's basically a case based on meta.

[Pavowski]

Strong TR on Lukewarm still.
Some degree of TR on all of {marcistar, alstroemerial, Pavowski}.

Gives me an elim pool of {Val98, Not_Mafia, Zyla, Portia}.

NM has done fuck-all but I kind of expect that from him. Would not object to an elim there but in my experience we either do it or don't, trying to use votes to pressure him is useless.

I'm glad you brought NM up again because I was just wondering about him. On the one hand I want to say if the slot isn't gonna be participating in a meaningful manner, it's worth a policy elim. If nothing else it'd get us to d2 and give us a NK to work with rather than continuing to ride this Luke/Val merry-go-round, and who knows, he could be scum for all anybody knows.

On the other hand I think we learn a lot more from some of the other potential flips.

[Pavowski]

At the risk of derailing this conversation, I think we need to entertain other possibilities. Val points out that the Luke/Val extravaganza is allowing townies to coast, but there is at least 1 mafia out there coasting as well (unless these 2 are scum together, in which case I am quitting this site forever).

I think Zyla is coasting. I know she said RL was a factor, but I looked over her ISO -- including the posts she made this morning after checking back in and refreshing -- and I don't see her actually taking a clear position on anybody. Before yesterday, it's much the same.

VOTE: Zyla because I think you're hedging. You said you think Luke/Val is SvT but you're not sure which way. If you think there's scum on one side, you must have an opinion, even if it's only an inkling.

I am also, like Umlaut, ready to consider a policy elim on NM if others feel similarly.

And if we absolutely must settle Luke/Val today, well, we'll fall off that bridge when we come to it.

This is e-2 for Zyla by my count.

Luke, Val, (and anybody, but I especially want to invite these two to talk about something else -- I venture to say, anything else), I'd appreciate your thoughts on Zyla. If you've given them previously, well, I'll admit to being one of those who has gone a bit glassy-eyed in this crossfire.

[Pavowski]

I am currently of the opinion that you and Luke are both town. Maybe not the most towniest, but town. If that's on the fence, I guess I can't argue with you, but I am not resigned to voting strictly between the two of you yet.

I think the whole town is asleep at the wheel; so no, I'm not voting Zyla for something half the playerlist is guilty of.

I wasn't asking you to vote her, I just wanted your thoughts, but I guess that'll do.

Duly flagged, however, that Luke asked for your thoughts before giving me his own on Zyla.

[Pavowski]

val seems a bit more aggressive rn imo

That's a fair assesment. We are approaching page 15, and I'm getting a little frustrated that everyone seems content to sit back and watch.

I can't speak for everyone, but I'm recovering from something right now, and the harsh tone of the thread is making it harder for me to enjoy the game, and thus harder to play. It's not that I'm content to sit and watch as much as that I feel engaging with it too much isn't a good idea for me

I think we all need to take a step back and remember that we're doing this to have

fun

Spoiler:

Sorry to hear that, Zyla. Do make sure you do what's best for you outside the game.

[Pavowski]

In post 346, Pavowski wrote:
I am currently of the opinion that you and Luke are both town. Maybe not the most towniest, but town. If that's on the fence, I guess I can't argue with you, but I am not resigned to voting strictly between the two of you yet.

pavowski, i dont really see you explain this anywhere (i might be missing it tho), but what made you think tvt? also whos the coasting-scum then?

I've gone back and forth on it but I come around like this: the way this thing has (d)evolved, it virtually guarantees that if we eliminate one, and they flip town, the first place we will look the next day is at the survivor. I don't think scum is going to lean *that* hard into a miselim on d1. I guess by that rationale it's *possible* it's SvS, as if the other flips scum, then that gets the other a pretty solid town-read, but I am, how shall I say, exceedingly skeptical of that possibility.

I think in short both players are making a case they honestly believe to be true about the other.

As I mentioned a few posts ago, I think Zyla is coasting, as I don't see a lot of substance out of her posts and not a lot of evidence of hunting or analysis of the game. I think she's a prime candidate for scum, but she's also stated she has some RL stuff going on, and, well, that's a mitigating factor I have to contend with.

Where the last scum could be hiding, I haven't theorized a whole lot yet. Obviously if my assumptions are correct it's in one of the remaining 5 (Portia, Marci, Umlaut, NM, Alstro). Of those, I have town pings on Umlaut and Alstro, nullish reads on Marci and Portia, and NM is a friggin' black box.

[Pavowski]

I've literally no idea what Zyla has done to deserve sitting at E-2 though. Two to the votes seem to be 'Zyla's coasting', and I've already explained why I think that could be fairly applied to a lot of players in this game.

That's a fair point. But of players who might qualify as "coasters" I get less towny pings from Zyla.

[Pavowski]

I'll say it again: Read the second to last paragraph of post 99. Read the part of Lukes 324 in which he quotes from that paragraph and look what he has ommitted. Read the question he asks after, and then come back and tell me Luke honestly beleives the case he is making.

Okay, fine. My morning has been slow, I'll do the homework.

Here's the paragraph in question:

The concenus may well be that it makes Lukewarm townleaning, or that it's NAI, but I'll open up by saying my initial thoughts are that it leans scummy. The first post that Lukewarm indicates they had a perspective switch from "Val isn't serious" to "I should take Val at face value" is post 33, where I imply that I think Lukewarm might be Not_mafia's scum buddy.

That to me says Lukewarm is over-the-top sensitive to any suggestion early game they might be scum.

If it is obviously RVS, fine, but if there is any doubt it might be the start of a serious scumread, or might lead to one

, then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early.

I can better see why scum would react in such a manner than I can town - while a townie isn't all that worried about about a single player throwing some shade at them on page 2, if that shade causes attention to fall on an actual scum, even if it was accidental on the part of the person throwing it, then that could potentially lead to the scum team going into N1 having lost half their faction - potentially game losing for them.

The highlighted text is what Luke quoted, the bolded is the part Luke snipped out in 99:

In post 99, Val89 wrote:
my initial thoughts are that it leans scummy.

The first post that Lukewarm indicates they had a perspective switch from "Val isn't serious" to "I should take Val at face value" is post 33, where I imply that I think Lukewarm might be Not_mafia's scum buddy.

That to me says Lukewarm is over-the-top sensitive to any suggestion early game they might be scum.
{snip}
then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early.

And the followup question from Luke is:

My question to Val is, and has been:
Why would you expect scum!luke to behave the way you outlined in post 99? Why would I need to discredit you there? Why would I continue on that push once you explicitly said that "Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm," ?

Luke, it's a fair question. Why snip out that one part of that one sentence?

[Pavowski]

Luke, it's a fair question. Why snip out that one part of that one sentence?

Mainly because his paragraph, as written, was dense and hard to read.

He spent like 5 lines in that paragraph to say "and scum luke would be worried that either he, or his partner would get eliminated from this" I feel like that was still evident in what I posted -- if it wasn't, my bad I guess

My point was that there was no reason for me to be worried about getting eliminated when he was suggesting we flip Not_Mafia first (and, in this theory, Not_Mafia was no longer my partner from his PoV)

I'm not gonna say it breaks this game open or anything -- we are talking about one sentence amidst pages of argument -- but it's shady to cut out a conditional that changes the entire tenor of what he was saying.

[Pavowski]

We're getting close to the prod point on Not_Mafia, with the only post in the last few days being 194, which is almost comical now in its irony.

Portia's approaching prod status as well, for that matter

[Pavowski]

Compiled Reads list for ease of reference

Alstro - Town Lean - 255
Pav - Slight Town Lean -

Seems to be genuinely trying to sort

Marci - Null - 256
Not_Mafia - Null - 257
Umlaut - Null - 296

Portia - Null Scum - 264

One probable Scum in

Luke - Null Town
Val - Null Scum

Luke has definitely not been playing up to what I've seen before, but page 15, it seemed like he was trying to move away from the 1v1 and interact with the thread as a whole, but Val was dragging him back in

So, gth, if you had to vote Luke or Val, it'd be Val?

[Pavowski]

Why is Zyla getting wagoned?

I can speak for myself; the day is half gone and I'm trying to figure out the Zyla slot. We're still waiting to hear why you want to vote Lukewarm.

[Pavowski]

Just like, self reflecting on this game, and I am coming to the conclusion that my biggest flaw in my town-game is lacking in the ability to explain my scum reads in a digestible / convincing way, and it has been a recurring theme.

Spoiler: Open 812

I was CONVINCED that Unwnd was scum, and I tried repeatedly to make the case for it to Ffery, who was an IC that game, but I just could not explain it in a way that convinced her. I eventually gave up, and we lost that game in Elo to scum Unwnd

I lost this game because I could not convince ffery that Unwnd was scum

Spoiler: Micro 1010

I made this whole case on what scum!Bingle was doing day 1, basically he tanked himself / purposefully got himself eliminated to save his partner. At first, I thought he saved Hopkirk (and was really loud about it). I later realized that he had actually saved 2 people that day: Hoplrk and Vanders.

So I made a big deal that the last scum was inside [hopkirk, vanders], and said repeatedly that we just needed to kill both of them to win... but I could not convince anyone. Vanders killed me the night before elo, and then town lost that game by voting Guilty Lion

Bingle later came back and confirmed that I was right in my analysis of what he was doing

I lost this game because I could not convince people that I had figured out what Bingle was doing

Spoiler: Newbie 2065

Most people got on board for T3, but mainly because he had a TERRIBLE reaction to me accusing him. I tried pretty hard to lead the thread to a Zyla elim, and that was like pulling teeth.

I had just lead the town to a Day 1 scum elim, but no one wanted to follow me on Zyla day 2. (Except my mason partner, all he wanted to do all game was sheep my reads lmao)

But like no one else seemed particularly convinced by my points, and instead like the whole lobby went the other way, and ran Egix up to E-1. Hell, even Egix was like "nah, Zyla is just town here." I could not convince anyone. It was not until Egix himself acted really townie right before his hammer, that people finally decided to go with Zyla.

I think I am generally pretty good at getting near universally town read.
I feel like my reads are generally better then average.
But then, despite being town read, I feel like it is a STRUGGLE to get people to see what I see

And it is honestly pretty frustrating.

That is the motivation behind those posts I made before btw. The ones that people said was me "begging for votes" --245 / 250 -- it is more like just the frustration of apparently being so unable to convince people in several of my games. And in this game, it was even more so. In the other games, I was mostly playing with people who had never played with me before, but then, in this one its like, half this lobby should have had a decent impression of my scum hunting, but even then... nope.

I am still very, very sure that Val is scum. But I am tired of trying to convince people of it. My vote will be there til the end of the day, and even then will only move if it is needed to avoid a no elim for the day.

Spoiler:

I get the feeling that maybe I should just take a page out of Not_Mafia's standard town play, and not actually scum case people. Just point that the scummiest person in the room and say "_____ is scum" and drop a vote. From what I have seen, that is more likely to get people to take heed then what ever it is I have been doing in my games. :/

Kinda off topic Luke, but since you're reflecting, I'll say this for your ability to convince me:

Spoiler:

Your style is a double edged sword. You make good arguments, sometimes excellent arguments, and I usually have a hard time disagreeing with much of what you post or how you read people. And I do *tend* to read you as town. But -- and maybe this is because I was on the receiving end of one of your pushes last game when I knew it was wrong -- I know you can use those arguments and reads as scum framing a townie just as well as you can as a townie reading scum. So while I find your reads insightful and maybe even correct, I take them with a hefty dose of salt; probably more salt than I take other players'.

tl;dr -- I think you're an excellent player, and that's why I will never fully trust you unless you're confirmed.

[Pavowski]

Things I know I never like: self voting.

Things I know: I’m aggrieved hammered again (this week is the one I took off work)

Things I want to know: why Zola and Astro haven’t made any impression on me so far.

Things I want to do : bullshit at mafia for a bit.

Whos with me?

Portia, since you're likely to see this, have you refined your reads on Zulu (kidding Zyla ) and Alstro?

Also earlier, you described Marci as "fairly newb town" -- is that still holding up?

[Pavowski]

Spoiler:

Your style is a double edged sword. You make good arguments, sometimes excellent arguments, and I usually have a hard time disagreeing with much of what you post or how you read people. And I do *tend* to read you as town. But -- and maybe this is because I was on the receiving end of one of your pushes last game when I knew it was wrong -- I know you can use those arguments and reads as scum framing a townie just as well as you can as a townie reading scum. So while I find your reads insightful and maybe even correct, I take them with a hefty dose of salt; probably more salt than I take other players'.

tl;dr -- I think you're an excellent player, and that's why I will never fully trust you unless you're confirmed.

Spoiler: Side Conversation with Pav

Okay, but in that case, shouldn't that, at the very least, make you think that me v Val has a decent chance of being TvS and not TvT? Either, I am town and making a real argument against my strongest scum read, OR I am scum making a push like I did on you?

Because, from what I have seen, you still appear to think it is TvT

I think in short both players are making a case they honestly believe to be true about the other.

Spoiler:

Of course there's a chance, and I'll grant it's greater than a slight chance, but at the moment I am more convinced it's TvT.

[Pavowski]

@Pav

please don't miss this

Spoiler:

Your style is a double edged sword. You make good arguments, sometimes excellent arguments, and I usually have a hard time disagreeing with much of what you post or how you read people. And I do *tend* to read you as town. But -- and maybe this is because I was on the receiving end of one of your pushes last game when I knew it was wrong -- I know you can use those arguments and reads as scum framing a townie just as well as you can as a townie reading scum. So while I find your reads insightful and maybe even correct, I take them with a hefty dose of salt; probably more salt than I take other players'.

tl;dr -- I think you're an excellent player, and that's why I will never fully trust you unless you're confirmed.

Spoiler: Side Conversation with Pav

Okay, but in that case, shouldn't that, at the very least, make you think that me v Val has a decent chance of being TvS and not TvT? Either, I am town and making a real argument against my strongest scum read, OR I am scum making a push like I did on you?

Because, from what I have seen, you still appear to think it is TvT

I think in short both players are making a case they honestly believe to be true about the other.

Spoiler:

Of course there's a chance, and I'll grant it's greater than a slight chance, but at the moment I am more convinced it's TvT.

Spoiler:

From what I can see, this is the reason you think it is TvT:

I don't think scum is going to lean *that* hard into a miselim on d1.

And, I would say that while this might apply to me, I do not know that it actually applies to Val.

I would describe his play, less as "leaning into a miselim" and more "needing to present me as scum, to stop my push on him"

Compare the VERY distinctive tone shift starting immediately after I made 214

Spoiler: Val's tone before post 214

My 99 was simply pointing out something that pinged me as scummy, but I entered into this conversation believing with further exploration it may well turn out to be NAI or even perhaps town motivated.

While Lukewarm appears to have taken my post 99 as saying "I read Lukewarm as scum", I'm not all the way there yet.

Whilst I think Lukewarm has started to ping me scummy, I am not throwing my vote down on them and calling them a scumread until I have more reason to do so, in an attempt to avoid another Val v JamesTheNames situation.

I will point out that, while I am definitely getting some scumpings from Lukes slot since then, I don't think it's anything to vote over just yet

VOTE: Lukewarm
{snip}
It's not a strong lean, but it's good enough for a early-D1 first serious vote.

Spoiler: Val's tone after 214

No offense, but I know your case is bullshit, and I think it's fairly obviously bullshit and will be seen as such by the other players

Hope your scumbuddy isn't giving you too much crap in the PT right now

you are doing a grand old job of basically bussing yourself here.

@Pav

If you do have other reasons to think he is town, can you town case him for me?

I know you are certain of your case and I know you want to believe that this tone shift is evidence of scum losing their grip on the situation. But what if he's town? And what if he's getting hounded and feels like he's made his case (just like you have) and isn't being heard (like you said you were earlier today -- or late last night, whenever)?

I think it makes just as much sense -- maybe even more -- that the tone shift you're describing is a result of frustration at retreading the same ground after so many posts. I don't love the tone shift you're putting on display here, but I do not read it as automatically sinister.

I didn't mind the spoilered posts while you were sort of reflecting on the situation in general, but this is the game we're talking about, and as Val points out:

Pav, the only townread that's shown some inkling they are actually started following our 1v1 a bit and found something of yours to be scummy, and suddenly you are all over him in a "side conversation".

He spotted your snipping my posts to change the tone of them once, I trust he will spot you cherry picking quotes in that little manuever, too.

this is another of those weird things that doesn't make sense to me if you're town.

You asked for a town case for him, here is one thing (without diving into a deep ISO, which I don't think I have the stamina for on a Sunday). If he were scum against the wall, I'd expect him to be trying to distract and divert and send the rest of us down rabbit holes. He's not doing that; he's mostly playing defense and watching your moves like a hawk.

He's doing

exactly what you're doing

, just with a different style.

[Pavowski]

I think their conflict is TvT, but if I had to vote against one or the other, right now I would vote Luke.

It's not by a lot, but if the elim is one or the other, that's where I am *right now*.

Don't mean to make my read confusing, but this is difficult when I don't *particularly* scumread either Luke or Val. It's weird. Like in a vacuum I'd say they're both more or less neutral for me right now, but their 1v1 feels TvT.

[Pavowski]

I do see her recent effort and it's pulling her back some. I'll have another look at her ISO but that may be tomorrow.

I'm curious what she's looking for from Alstro above because I'm trying to figure out if I actually TR Alstro or if I'm just gutfeeling it there.

Incidentally Luke if you turn out right and it's Val + Portia/NM I'll sheep you in every game from now on

[Pavowski]

this is another of those weird things that doesn't make sense to me if you're town.

I am curious what quotes you think I shortened to the point of being misleading?

----------------

This is the thing I was trying to draw attention to was:

Prior to post 214, Val appears to have had a weak scum lean lean on me. He said himself in post 183 "It's not a strong lean"

Then he read post 214

After that, his read on me changed so much so that he appears to be so sure that I am scum that he has not indicated even the slightest worry that I might be a townie tunneled on him.

And I was hoping that you would ask yourself, does it make sense for his read and tone to have changed so suddenly from immediately before 214 to immediately after 214.

---------------

I feel like the quotes I chose highlighted that, and were not misleading about his stance on me either before or after.

I mean, I understand why Val wants to present it like I was misquoting him in some way, but I am not sure what drew you to agree with him there.

Shortening quotes misleadingly is a dumb play to make from either alignment tbh. The quote box links directly back to the original post, so if you want to look for further context it is right there. Making a misleading quote seems like a dumb trap to set up for yourself, since it is so easy to follow back on.

That thing from me is not about shortening quotes, it's the whole concept about the spoilered conversation ... I didn't say anything about being misleading in that post, the only time I did was when I responded to Val's point about you snipping the middle bit out of a sentence in, I think it was 99

[Pavowski]

UNVOTE: Zyla

I don't see any indication that NM is scum at this point, and an elim on him would tell us next to nothing, so as much as I am not a fan of the slot, an elim here doesn't make a lot of sense right now

Val's comments about Alstro are having some kind of effect on me. Then again I'm kinda liking Alstro's 468. I still TR Alstro in the top half of the players here. In fact looking back through his ISO, I need to hear from Portia's slot.

VOTE: Portia

[Pavowski]

For that matter I'd like some updated takes from Umlaut as well. I'm looking at your proposed elim pool of {Val, Zyla, NM, Portia} from 309, is this still where you are?

[Pavowski]

Hey hey I know I was the first Portia vote on this wagon and I'm glad people are following me but can no one else vote Portia until either he picks up the prod or gets replaced? I don't want this to move too fast before he can say anything.

Agree wholeheartedly, Umlaut's vote makes Portia e-2 by my count

[Pavowski]

[Pavowski]

Well that didn't work.

Anyway, if Portia is getting replaced I'll move my vote until we hear from the slot

Marci, I see you asking lots of questions but I'm not sure where you stand on a lot of this. I see your reads list in 191 where you were mostly null on a lot of this, and based on content in between it seems like, thanks to Luke/Val, you are reading Val scummier than you did in 191. Got any updated takes?

[Pavowski]

UNVOTE: portia

[Pavowski]

I will supplement that to say that I was trending downward on the slot -- the agro comments and the drunkposting look way worse in the context of giving up and walking away imo -- but will give a replacement the benefit of the doubt

[Pavowski]

I know Luke/Val was the source of fireworks in the thread, so I'm glad that's settled down even though the thread has gone quiet (I guess it was destined to happen with a replacement coming). But I begin to suspect I've gotten most of what I can out of today short of hearing from the Portia slot. We're getting a little low on time and it's time to start thinking about how today ends.

My elim pool right now looks like:
Portia (initial towny read has turned to scummy thanks to ghosting)
Zyla (was heading back into null but still null at best)
Luke (if Luke/Val is the decision today)

Marci, Alstro, and Umlaut give me towny enough vibes to stay above the line

I don't think Val is the move today

Honorable mention for NM, (Luke rightly pointed out a few posts ago that most of us have weighed in on the slot one way or another so I've come to consider a flip here again, but would only be a *we should at least flip somebody* option)


I'll put a vote down when Portia weighs in.

[Pavowski]

After Zyla's vote, I was going back through the ISO and preparing to work up a post outlining the reasons I was scumreading Umlaut in case that was the direction we were heading, and in the process of doing so, I've decided I was wrong.

NGL I had the same reaction to Zyla's vote and went back to rethink my Umlaut townlean. I still lean town on Umlaut and am back to leaning scum on Z.

[Pavowski]

Welcome to the party, Shrek!

[Pavowski]

Color me confused by the claim, but I guess I understand your thinking on it.

If the thread and what people have said is any indication, NM is unlikely to respond to your request for more contributions.

[Pavowski]

Peace was never an option

[Pavowski]

I'm about to be on an overnight trip. Won't declare v/la because I'll still be reading on mobile, I just won't be able to post at length, but here's where I'm at in the meantime:

On the one hand, I don't want to lim either Luke or Val because I think they're both good sources of info in this game, town or no

On the other hand, this feels like something we're going to have to sort out sooner or later, and if one of them is right, it's a big help to the game

Portia's slot had become one of my top susses but, what can I say, I feel some kind of way about voting Shrek the moment he lands in the game, and he's at least pulled the slot back toward neutral a bit

I'm still open to other possibilities but I think for now VOTE: Lukewarm is where I want to go

[Pavowski]

Reviewing a little bit on mobile tonight, of course the thread picks up while I'm away for a night hehe

In other news, Shrek got something out of NM so he's got that going for him

Shrek is there anything you are finding particularly scummy about NM besides the playstyle stuff?

[Pavowski]

One more food for thought to encourage people to vote for the Shrek/Portia slot: I know it sucks to replace in and get eliminated quickly, but that shouldn't be a reason to deter town from voting if they think they've found scum. We have to play to win. Portia was prickly at suspicion, avoidant of actual questions, and flying under the radar until eventually disappearing altogether. Shrek has been a little better but I'm not satisfied with the explanation given in 603 -- this conversation seems so full of hedging without putting a solid stance down, in order to avoid getting held accountable for something later. If it's Not_Mafia or a no elim, I'll help make an elim happen, but if we have some time left I would really ask people to consider this.

These are fair points and I'm finding it hard to disagree

im fine with being miselimmed if it means that itll help people narrow their poe down when it comes to a more pressing situation where they need to focus specifically on the alignments.

I can't decide if this is super-towny or scum trying to appear super-towny, between stuff like this and the claim Shrek is pinging me in both directions at this point and I don't like it

Trying to catch up on the rest of the thread, I should have a bit more tonight.

[Pavowski]

That was E-1, right? ...right?

UNVOTE: Shrek

I actually like their reads post, not just because they call me hard-town (though that's probably part of it just because it surprised me a lot)

Wait, did you unvote because you like their reads post or because Shrek was suddenly at e-1 and you didn't like it?

[Pavowski]

I was just noticing that, too. I had been under the impression we had until midnight EST in this day.

Shrek's had plenty of time to check in and speak today; If it's not hammered by t-minus 45, I will do it.

[Pavowski]

I wanted to give Zyla the chance to follow through, but I agree, we're too close for comfort.

VOTE: Shrek

[Pavowski]

I don't think scum!Luke makes that kill after all that back and forth during the day.

[Pavowski]

I want to start today with VOTE: Not_Mafia due to his just sneaking quietly into the middle of the Shrek wagon.

Interestingly his vote on Luke didn't count and he never corrected the record, his initial vote on Shrek didn't count and he *did* make sure it counted.

Then immediately capitalizes on the Val kill to push Luke today?

I'm not gonna e-1 him before we have some time to discuss but this is not a great look

[Pavowski]

Alstro, I'm not sure how much we can read into NM behaviorally, but to clarify my post, I just think it's interesting that he cast a vote on Lukewarm earlier in the thread, was instructed by the mod that it didn't count, and never seemed to correct the record. Then he voted against Shrek which was similarly not counted, but that one he corrected to make sure it did count.

The latter vote was of course part of the wagon that resulted in Shrek's elim.

Interestingly NM calls for us to elim Luke today but isn't actually voting him now, either.

It's weird.

[Pavowski]

Interestingly NM calls for us to elim Luke today but isn't actually voting him now, either.

So I can hammer him later

There you have it, weirdness resolved

[Pavowski]

Good morning! I have scoured the thread to bring you everybody's vote record for d1, because I'm trying to figure out ways to make sense of the thread. It's as complete as I can make it but it's possible I missed a vote or two here and there, if so, my apologies. While we have the NK to puzzle over, I think it's interesting to look at who voted where, and when. Your assessment of when RVS/shitposting ends and the real voting begins may differ from mine. Draw your own conclusions obviously, but here are some of my observations:

Luke: Alstro (24), Val (31), Alstro (59), Val (73), Umlaut (134), UNVOTE (138), Portia/Shrek (178), Val (214), Luke (239), Val (241), NM (497), Portia/Shrek (618)
Moves his vote around a lot to pressure people, still reading town

NM: NM (12), Umlaut (55), Luke (418) (not counted), Shrek (583) (not counted), Shrek (634)
Early votes aside, the only vote he casts that counts lands on Shrek.

Zyla: Luke (10), UNVOTE (140), Umlaut (547), NM (610),
Early vote is rescinded and does not vote for a loooong time. RL things were happening apparently so not sure how much we can read into that. Ends on a NM wagon which is an easy, uncontroversial vote to make.

Alstro: Zyla (7), Pav (159), Val (293), Portia/Shrek (319),
Interesting thing here is they vote Val in 293 but make it clear they don't want to wagon/lim the slot. Shortly after, they plant on Portia/Shrek and stay there.

Portia/Shrek: Val (110), NM (582)
Only votes twice, 2nd (final) vote lands on NM and is immediately OMGUS'd and ultimately lim'd.

Val: NM (25), UNVOTE (115), Luke (183),
Kinda speaks for itself.

Umlaut: NM (35), Zyla (201), Portia/Shrek (523), UNVOTE (635), Shrek (663)
Also doesn't vote much; is a part of the unpopular-with-some-of-the-lobby Zyla wagon before moving to Shrek.

Marci: Zyla (191), UNVOTE (542), NM (656)
REALLY doesn't vote much, is on the unpopular Zyla wagon, then lands on the less controversial NM wagon

Pav: Alstro (8), Val (11), UNVOTE (119), Zyla (338), Portia/Shrek (504), UNVOTE (545), Luke (609),

Shrek hammer

(672)
You'll have to decide for yourself how to read my votes

[Pavowski]

My big takeaways from all this are:

I'm townreading Luke, lots of pressure and a willingness to give up his top scum read (who gets NK'd), his death-tunnel with Val does not jive with a Val NK for me
I'm a little more sus of Marci than I was for taking what look like "easy" votes,
Alstro settling on Shrek and their drive for us to consider voting the slot could either be towny trying to make sure we don't miss a lim opportunity on d1 or scummy trying to make sure we don't miss a mislim opportunity
NM feels scummier than before given an early drive to get Luke today
Umlaut and Zyla are still kinda in null for me

And sorry for the wall in the previous post.

[Pavowski]

I'm a little more sus of Marci than I was for taking what look like "easy" votes,

whats ur definition of easy votes wth

Not a hard-and-fast term, but given that the prospect of a NM elimination was pretty much "meh" on d1 and Zyla was never really in serious danger of getting eliminated -- especially when you voted her -- I would consider those easy votes

[Pavowski]

Marci is Null still, but townier than yesterday

Why is Marci townier today?

[Pavowski]

I'd say it's "easier" to vote somebody to e-3 than to e-1 for example, yeah.

[Pavowski]

I'm a little more sus of Marci than I was for taking what look like "easy" votes,

whats ur definition of easy votes wth

Not a hard-and-fast term, but given that the prospect of a NM elimination was pretty much "meh" on d1 and Zyla was never really in serious danger of getting eliminated -- especially when you voted her -- I would consider those easy votes

i agree, my not_mafia was totally just an easy vote. i dont remember if i said around the timebut i wasn't confident at all in that vote, but i didn't want to vote shrek at all.

for the zyla thing, i voted her pretty early on. of course she wouldn't be serious danger of getting elimed.

Kinda my point exactly here, I have yet to see a strong read from you one way or another.

oh oop i totally should've put this in that same post

pavowski, so whats ur order rn of least scummiest to scummiest?

Kinda thought I gave it in my post after looking at d1 votes but I'll make it more explicit, I guess right now my POE looks something like

Luke

Alstro

Umlaut
Marci
Zyla

NM

I think on d1 I was townreading too many folks and now it feels like I am scumreading too many. I am really having a hard time getting a read on Umlaut especially and I don't like it, but he says he'll post more soon and I guess I'll wait on that

[Pavowski]

Meanwhile the day is ticking away

VOTE: Not_Mafia

The push he wants for Luke is opportunistic and doesn't make sense

[Pavowski]

That's e-1 btw.

[Pavowski]

Would absolutely blow my mind to see a Luke lolhammer in any situation, ever

This is probably your best opportunity

[Pavowski]

Meanwhile the day is ticking away

VOTE: Not_Mafia

The push he wants for Luke is opportunistic and doesn't make sense

This is a very scummy E-1

How do you distinguish it from a towny E-1?

I'm ready to hear you out on this but you have to say something.

Opportunistic, he threw shade on me from the word go, the backed down when responded to, now I’m scum again all of a sudden. Terrible read progression

You went from null to scummy, for me, with your idea that Luke makes sense as a push for today without making that case at all. I know Umlaut says there's a way in which the Val NK makes sense with scum!Luke but I'm not sold. Can you in any way justify your scum!Luke case?

[Pavowski]

We have four whole days left, there's no hurry here.

I agree there's no need to rush, but we're three days deep in the day and only three people have bothered to place a vote (well, Luke is now declaring intent). The sooner we get some votes on the table the more time we have to discuss.

[Pavowski]

We are at that point where 3 living players have not posted in over a day and we're closing in on 4.

I know it's a Saturday, but it would be really nice to hear from the rest of the players in here

[Pavowski]

I'll leave it to Alstro to interpret their own post, but suffice to say they don't want to lim NM, or at least not right now

I'm not married to a NM lim but I still haven't heard why his call for a Luke lim today makes any kind of sense.

[Pavowski]

I still think you're scum, but I'm open to hearing other, y'know, reasoned arguments

Do you have one of those?

[Pavowski]

Interested in trying this

VOTE: Pavowski

I don't really follow what N_M is saying about Luke (and I think honestly it would be hard for me to ever believe Luke is scum) but the Pavowski read actually makes some sense.

Weekend is busier than anticipated but I am at least reading along still, btw.

Well, at least you voted.

So NM has a bad read on Luke, but a good one on me? My scumread on him today is based pretty much entirely on him saying Luke is the move following a NK that I think most of us agree does not jive with scum!Luke. You are the only one who has even made an effort to justify NM's push on Luke (in 696, you imply that a partner might convince scum!Luke to NK Val even if he wouldn't do it on his own), but now you seem in agreement with me on Luke?

Why *wouldn't* I adjust my read on NM based on his early posts today?

[Pavowski]

I think Zyla gets another prod before the replacement train starts up.

[Pavowski]

I just refuse to believe Luke is scum and I don't refuse to believe you are. The way you phrase your initial question here seems to indicate some degree of incredulity that N_M could have one bad read and one good one, do you really think that's hard to believe?

I said in 696 that I didn't actually believe Luke was scum, did you miss that?

I suppose you could adjust your read based on N_M's posts, but you haven't really made any argument I can see that N_M's push on Luke is actually scummy as opposed to just wrong. You did say it's "opportunistic" but particularly given it's a continuation of his stated scumread on that slot from yesterday I don't understand where that comes from. What opportunity exactly is N_M taking advantage of?

Obviously anybody can make good and bad reads but in this case they seem to be linked.

I don't see his push on Luke today as a continuation of his read from day one. I didn't put much stock in his scum read on day one. Today though he seems to be legitimately pushing Luke in response to the NK and I don't think there's a good faith reason for that. I think it's scummy.

I could be wrong, though. Maybe he's making good his promise to troll the fecal matter out of this game.

How do you view NM'S push on Luke today?

[Pavowski]

Oh and Umlaut I did see your 696. What I was pointing out was that the consensus amongst everybody who's weighed in on the matter is that the NK doesn't really make sense for scum!Luke. Your post that scum!Luke's partner might have convinced him to NK Val is the only thing I see actually entertaining the possibility (and I will grant that you don't actually think Luke is scum).

But NM wants us to push Luke. Why?

[Pavowski]

How do you view NM'S push on Luke today?

I don't understand the push because I haven't seen any case to speak of. I don't like it that N_M refuses to give a case but I don't think it's necessarily scum-indicative of him.

You didn't just say it's a bad or nonexistent case, though, you said it's

opportunistic.

So either you just chose a buzzword at random or you think there is something in particular that is opportunistic about it. Do you think he's an easy target? I certainly would not characterize anyone as prolific and aggressive as Lukewarm in that way, so what do you mean?

I'm saying a gut reaction to Val dying would lead us to look at Luke, so pushing on Luke would make sense. For a few seconds.

Of course, the moment you think about it, you'd conclude (as most of us have) that the kill does *not* make sense from a scum!Luke POV.

So, yeah, I'm right with you. The case is nonexistent. The push seems opportunistic (Hey, Luke and Val were arguing, Val died, let's kill Luke!).

Am I being that unclear?

[Pavowski]

Honestly I don't know what goes in that guy's head

I just don't understand it

[Pavowski]

Welcome T3 and holy crap, what is happening?

Logged in to see if Zyla had a replacement and there's 2 pages of bizarreness to catch up on. I'm with Alstro in not having enough brain for this tonight but will dig into this tomorrow.

[Pavowski]

T3, NM can't wait to vote for Luke or me, he just wants to be the hammer:

Interestingly NM calls for us to elim Luke today but isn't actually voting him now, either.

So I can hammer him later

He's doing the same to me as he was doing to Luke to start today, pressuring other people to vote me while withholding his own vote. He had more than enough opportunity to hammer T3 though.

Meanwhile, your (t3) call for massclaim as a ploy to test Luke or take the fall for NM or -- whatever all that was -- smells, and 838 feels just designed to make your slot unreadable.

[Pavowski]

Sorry all, I said I'd take a closer look at the thread but it was a late night for me and a long one at work today. I'm trying to find the energy to post more in depth but I'm kinda scraping bottom right now. Need to get some food down my neck and I'll circle back.

[Pavowski]

Anyway, to think a little harder about this I'm not sure anybody else should claim at this point. The Val NK only really makes sense in light of PR-hunting as I think Umlaut pointed out, unless this is Luke pulling a galaxy brain play. And I don't buy that.

For me, I think it makes sense to wait another day for claims. We'll be at 5 tomorrow (or who knows, maybe 6). If we don't reveal, there's a decent chance we don't lose a PR tonight. I'm just not in favor of revealing the PRs and doing scum's work for them.

PEdit: Luke makes a good point about what T3 could've known. Makes that entrance a bit less scummy than I originally thought

[Pavowski]

I don't see how you're confused by my thoughts about Luke in D1, I thought I had explained it, but once more: I thought the whole thing was tvt but if it came to it I would have rather voted Luke than Val at that stage, and I wanted that on the record.

As for today, I've tried to give my thoughts and make them clear, but if I'm the vote I guess I'm the vote.

I frankly don't see how anybody is TRing NM or T3 at this stage but I guess you all will have to figure them out in the final 5, and good luck with it.

That's about all I can manage from work.

[Pavowski]

Sorry Alstro, I'm not trying to imply you're stupid or anything like that, I just thought I'd made my thoughts on Luke v Val clear on d1 and I'm a little frustrated both of these scummy players are on my wagon

[Pavowski]

Incidentally Luke if you turn out right and it's Val + Portia/NM I'll sheep you in every game from now on

Also, you bastard lmao

I'm still kicking myself about d3. Right before things turned on me, t3 was at e-1 and I thought to myself I should really hammer before anybody changes their mind. Figured even if it would have looked scummy (and it sure would have) at least we'd have made it to d4 and been in elo. But Alstro moved their vote from t3 before I could get home from work.

Playing as scum is hard
Oh well.

[Pavowski]

And there was no dead thread I was also dying to see what val had to say, lol

[Pavowski]

Not hammering T3 meant that you or marci needed to also be leading a push somewhere else I think

100% agree, except

I couldn't push you because I was hard townreading you
The NM push clearly wasn't happening
T3 fizzled out
And I didn't feel strong enough in my ability to make cases against Alstro or Umlaut

So I was kinda stuck =\

Honestly I think it went off the rails for us (or I should speak for myself, for ME) when we swallowed the PR bait Val dropped d1. I was certain he was gonna flip cop. After that I was kinda playing on my heels. If we'd had him as a mislim option (as you pointed out early d2 Luke) ... well, who knows!

[Pavowski]

I am curious now, @Pav & Marci, is the reason that I didn't get NK'd the fact that there wasn't a possibility of tracker in the game?

You were in the running for a n1 nk, but I didn't buy your "slips". We also knew we were in column c which limited the options. Ultimately I thought val was a more likely PR.

I also thought we could either miselim you or force you to claim d2. (It almost worked.)

[Pavowski]

hope we can play together in future games

You can join popcorn mafia!! It’s in open queue
Half this group is playing again!

I swear I'm not stalking this crew but the popcorn setup looks hella fun.

[Pavowski]

hope we can play together in future games

You can join popcorn mafia!! It’s in open queue
Half this group is playing again!

I swear I'm not stalking this crew but the popcorn setup looks hella fun.

I have talked to other people who have played popcorn in previous incarnations, and it appears to be a decisive set up.

Like people either really like or, or they hate it lol

I feel like it's sure to stress me out no matter which side I'm on, I don't know why I'm doing this to myself.