Open 642 - The Woodshed - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

Well I mean essays are fine, but I'm not holding others to that standard.

What do you think of the posts shotty made specifically and panthers take on them?

Ps I did take a pretty hard stance on ranger, but panther made some interesting points on her, and I wasn't impressed by the wagon that formed either. So I'm back to asking questions, both for her and others. I still think she's a wolf but I'm not sure.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt your last post, btd tends to be mislynch bait as town, including in open 644 which we just had together.

[Xkfyu]

What do you think of the posts shotty made specifically and panthers take on them?

I thought Shotty was genuinely celebrating and bragging on how he caught scum based on one post.

Panther says those kinds of posts are easy to fake. While I don't necessarily disagree (not completely, anyways), that doesn't suggest that it is faked.

At some point you have to make a decision on what is faked and what isn't, and I don't think this was.

[Xkfyu]

Wrt your last post, btd tends to be mislynch bait as town, including in open 644 which we just had together.

Yeah, that makes sense, considering some his posts.

That's too bad. I kinda wanna lynch him, but that makes me hesitant.

[AlpacaAlpaca]

Nulltown: Kappy, InnocentVillager
Null: Alexcellent, Smv, KickAssAndGiggle, Shotty, Alpaca
Nullscum: Music And Mail

These are incredibly weak.

VOTE: InnocentVillager

All my reads are practically null. You are a miniscule townread but I believe pressure is the key to escaping RVS. The read is too weak to matter much.

Ok so we start off with the wonder that was this post which I know, has been explained but I mean come on.

I primarily want a Music and Mail lynch but I am fine with lynching Ranger. With this setup a lynch on scum Ranger is no doubt good but a lynch on town Ranger is not too bad. Ranger will most probably survive the rest of the game (unless she was primed N1) and can input her reads.

Besides, she promised.

Than we have this where he says he is scumreading M&M but is actually down with a lynch on Ranger whether or not she is scum but its ok because "she promised" or maybe it was because that was a really easy wagon to hop on then with a really easy no thinking reason to top it off with.

Ranger was actually my weakest scum read out of {Ranger, Touka, Mhsmith, M&M}. The scumread was mainly due to her self-voting and "promise" to get lynched. Now I don't see that much reason to scumread her so I should vote another scumread.

VOTE: Mhsmith

Not as strong as M&M, but a lone vote on M&M won't accomplish anything at this stage.

But than he clears it up with this her self vote was actually scummy and so was her promise to get lynched even though he said nothing of the sort when he was talking about lynching Ranger in fact citing her promise as a reason to vote her. Also voting Smith instead of trying to push his highwer scum read M&M

Than we had, not even going to lie, my favourite part of this game so far which was see how many quotes I can re quote before BTD answers the question of why he voted Smith instead of M&M, are you ready for it

This is one long twilight

This should get pressure.

That was lowkey a prodge on my part since I wanted to get something in before night started since I hadn't posted in like 1d and 18h or something like that

and also

@BTD why do you think that Smith is scum?

I have a dream that someday BTD will answer my question

On the topic of explaining who scum is...

Yeah it sure would be nice if btd ever got around to explaining themselves and their reads...

There is literally 0% chance you haven't seen this, and I would love an answer

You need to answer this if you aren't feeling like getting lynched, and I am almost at the max quote wall so sooner rather than later would be great

^^^^^^^ 7 times this question was asked and it wasn't even like he wasn't here he was just straight dodging the question probably fumbling to make up a reason and hope nobody voted him for it

Theres alot more I want to do today, but with everyone V/LA, I think I want a flip.

So fuck it:

VOTE: BTD

L-1

Why do you actually scumread me?

Especially as no one on my wagon actually has good reasons for it, as I have explained.

A healthy bit of irony for your morning

His recent posts have been 'better' but not enough at all to warrant me not thinking he is scum

[mhsmith0]

@ranger: I'd really like your btd thoughts. What about them this game is notably different from the micro you modded?

[PantherPunt]

Smith talk to me about btd and his ignoring of questions

[mhsmith0]

Alpaca asked btd the same question (why do you think smith is scum) repeatedly and btd kept ignoring it. Imo it's a poor look for both of them (alpaca for literally doing nothing else for like a week, btd for dodging what should be a super easy question to answer). I don't know it's really strong on either of them though.

Wrt btd, I'd been skimming their meta, and I don't see flagrant differences between town and scum for them. There seems to be a bit more of an inward focus to them when they're scum, especially under pressure, at least in open 638 and micro 618. In this game I see similar tendencies, though it seems a bit dampened (but much more inward/defense focus than in open 644, where they were wagoned d2).

Notable other town games where they got lynched:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
There's a notable lack of investment in self defense in both those. IMO it's pretty particular for a meta read though.

It's also annoying because the odds of btd having been primed on n1 are essentially zero for obvious reasons, which means that there's no chance that we could essentially buy an extra mislynch here if we're wrong. That said, if I buy ranger as town (and I re-read open 635 and didn't see the kind of posts that you cited as indicative... but that IV vote was so bad, and the whole self-vote saga looked terrible and manipulative in my book too), they'd probably be my next best guess as to who is a wolf, especially given the flat-out lie surrounding the whole "claiming by is scum indicative while I'm fake claiming pr as scum in another game" bit.

[innocentvillager]

Can we just lynch and call it a day? I'm serious, I really don't care who at this point as long as it's not Panther or DGB.

[innocentvillager]

Put your money where your mouth is then. Self-vote.

What, for the town cred?

Sorry, no.

I'll self-vote. It'll happen today, especially since I have literally no defenders; every single player is suspicious of me and that means I make a good lynch.
It does not need to happen instantly.

True. Even if we do end up lynching Ranger for pushing that IV lynch, we don't need to do it immediately. We have 2 weeks, peoples. We can drag it out to get as much information about the other scum as possible.

I lmfao'd reading back on this

[innocentvillager]

^ That gem was Mon Jun 13, 2016 6:30 am, site time people, 2 days after the Day 2 start. It is now almost 6 weeks since then.

[mhsmith0]

My lynch pool is {ranger, btd} and MAYBE Titus or dgb if someone wants to make a solid case there (anther has my attention but I'm not sold on dgb). I'm not interested in lynching off the d1 IV wagon, and I'm not interested in lunching panther after kappys post lynch celebration stuff.

[mhsmith0]

At any rate we are just over 24 hours away and CANNOT no lynch. What is everyone's lynch pools at this point?

[Titus]

Ranger/you/BTD

[mhsmith0]

Talk about how that vote analysis points to me?

[Titus]

One of the three two banger wagons would likely be scum. The splits just seem unnatural.

[mhsmith0]

You mean one of the three is all wolf? Or two wagons have one each? I get the idea the splits may be unnatural, but I dont follow you on how that points to anyone in particular.

[Titus]

One of the players wagoned is likely a wolf.

[Quaroath]

Vote count 2.13

mhsmith0 - (1) Ranger
Ranger - (3) DrippingGoofball, BTD6_maker, Titus
DrippingGoofball - (1) PantherPunt
Titus - (1) Xkfyu
BTD6_maker - (1) AlpacaAlpaca

Not Voting - (1)mhsmith0

With 8 eligible to vote, is takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline will be 7/23 @ 10pm PST.

Edit to correct font

[BTD6_maker]

My Internet works now. I will try to post often when my Internet cooperates. Anyway, there are a few points I should probably address.

@ranger: Speaking of that game...

VOTE: btd ^6^ scum post

p-edit
Kappy
s point may be weak but look at BTD's reaction

How is my reaction scummy? I'm honestly tired of repeating myself over and over again.

Mhsmith, I did think an IV/Ranger team was likely, and I found both of them scummy by themselves. The Tree claim was just a weak comment but I would not have hammered a claimed Firefighter.

Also, in my experience, scum have never claimed a PR

. You are assuming that small comments I make are the whole reason for the hammer, which is false. I don't see why you think pointing out the flaws in your reasoning is scummy.

Also, I never said I wanted to lynch a Tree or that a Tree lynch is good. Once again, you are using irrelevant comments as my whole case, which is misrepresenting me. That comment was not hedging.

I will also post a "case" on IV showing why I scumread him at the time.

Did you pick up on this one? Btd6 had done EXACTLY what they said they'd never seen ( fake claim pr as wolf) in that game, AND it helped them escape the d1 noose. I expected this to pong you to the point you'd be a lot more curious about btd6 in general, even if you couldn't mention this specifically since it was an ongoing game. So I'd like to know:

1) did you notice it?
2) if yes, why didn't this make you a lot more interested in sorting btd6?

Also, we've both seen btd6 as town (open 644) and wolf (micro 610). What about this game makes you think it's more comparable to the town game than the wolf game?

There is a major difference here. When I made that post, my only completed games were Opens. The game I fakeclaimed Seer was a closed game. The difference is that in an Open a fakeclaim either guarantees a counterclaim or has a high chance of one but in a closed game this doesn't happen. I originally claimed to out a PR (I thought I was lynched) but once I realised I wasn't I could simply keep on pretending to be the Seer without risk.

This is an Open.

[BTD6_maker]

Alpaca asked btd the same question (why do you think smith is scum) repeatedly and btd kept ignoring it. Imo it's a poor look for both of them (alpaca for literally doing nothing else for like a week, btd for dodging what should be a super easy question to answer). I don't know it's really strong on either of them though.

Wrt btd, I'd been skimming their meta, and I don't see flagrant differences between town and scum for them. There seems to be a bit more of an inward focus to them when they're scum, especially under pressure, at least in open 638 and micro 618. In this game I see similar tendencies, though it seems a bit dampened (but much more inward/defense focus than in open 644, where they were wagoned d2).

Notable other town games where they got lynched:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
There's a notable lack of investment in self defense in both those. IMO it's pretty particular for a meta read though.

It's also annoying because the odds of btd having been primed on n1 are essentially zero for obvious reasons, which means that there's no chance that we could essentially buy an extra mislynch here if we're wrong. That said, if I buy ranger as town (and I re-read open 635 and didn't see the kind of posts that you cited as indicative... but that IV vote was so bad, and the whole self-vote saga looked terrible and manipulative in my book too), they'd probably be my next best guess as to who is a wolf, especially given the flat-out lie surrounding the whole "claiming by is scum indicative while I'm fake claiming pr as scum in another game" bit.

With the House MD game I was not as invested as I could have been (considering I had 6 active games at that point, far too much for me to take on). In fact, in the end I was ISO diving everyone, completely missing the fact that I weakly Townread someone who replaced out, and scumread the replacee. In short, not a good game for me.

With Newbie 1708, I had stated that their reasons for scumreading me were not valid (mostly because I was the JK's target on a No Kill) and had gone into probability theory before I was hammered.

Check out Newbie 1700 for better meta. I was one of the two Day 2 wagons and throughout Day 2 I consistently defended myself and pushed on RadiantCowbells (the other wagon), who was scum. I may not have done it as effectively as possible (that was my first ever game) but I tried.

[mhsmith0]

Why is your first ever game better meta than your more recent town games? Also, even there, as you say, you were pushing on RC. In this game, I see a bit less of an outward push than that game, and quite a bit less than in other town games of yours. It seems like in general when you're town, pressure and votes on you aren't a massive focus of your energy, while they are much more so when you're scum. And in this game, there's been more of a focus on defense from you, more similar to your scum meta than your town meta.

That said, what are your opinions on the other current wagon options (ranger, me, dgb, Titus) and why on each? Essays aren't needed, but we need to know your thoughts on these. Which are you willing to lynch, which are you NOT willing to lynch, and why?

[Titus]

We have about 13 hours until deadline. If you believe Ranger is town, defend her and case an alternative. If you are not sure Ranger is town, you should be voting her. Ranger should claim immediately.

[mhsmith0]

I'm not going to slap on an l-1 before an official claim from ranger in case someone lol hammers using the deadline as an excuse.

Also what's your dgb read?

[DrippingGoofball]

We have about 12 hours until deadline. If you believe Ranger is town, defend her and case an alternative. If you are not sure Ranger is town, you should be voting her. Ranger should claim immediately.