↑fferyllt wrote:Nacho says he'd prefer formerfish to DV. Thoughts?
I'm extremely hesitant.
I feel it'd have a higher chance at producing a scumlynch than Espeonage, and certainly more than CDB and probably more than Dan, but while I could probably support and maybe even vote the wagon...still hesitate to vote it, when I think that DV is scum so much stronger and yet is about equally a realistic lynch candidate.
...Plus purely on a selfish note, a Formerfish scumflip does nothing to clear/condemn anyone whereas a DV scumflip basically clears me and my entire townbloc.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:20 am
by fferyllt
I never care about that sort of consideration. I just want to lynch scum/not lynch town.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:24 am
by ActionDan
Ill be gone for 2 hours. Might be here just in time for deadline. If needed
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:26 am
by mastin2
And I feel DV is scum much, much, much stronger than I do Formerfish.
Fish I feel is maybe scum. By general feelings, is technically fourth from the bottom on my readslist and thus you could say is poe scum, but given how fluid the 'The Rest' section is, that doesn't say much. I see plenty which makes me think "could be town", even though I see plenty that says "could be scum".
DV I see as scum. I see basically nothing which looks town, and a ton that looks like scum mimicking it. That's why DV's my preference.
That a Fish flip gives nothing except the flip itself (admit it, it's true), and the DV flip gives a ton regardless of whether I'm right or wrong, is an added bonus.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:40 am
by Shadoweh
Okay I have to go and I see my vote is in the right place right now. Good luck everyone! Ffery i will miss you rip gestalt ;_;
i will probably not like, read mafia overnight though or remember im in a game EeeeEeeeeEEeee
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:43 am
by fferyllt
Nacho's reads list:
Oversoul - Tammy was extremely, extremely town. Oversoul is very, very town. The chances of two players who hate playing scum coming into this slot and towning it up this hard as scum is basically zero
GammaGooey - he came into the game, found his stride and has been strongly strongly town ever since. Nacho doesn't think he can fake that as scum. he's made very townminded pushes several different times, and his reads have been fluid, which is something that takes a lot of effort, care and energy to do as scum. he's not playing in anyone's shadow and he's very deliberately butted heads with us on the specifics of our reads several times. All stuff very difficult to fake as scum, and vanishingly unlikely to come from gammagooey-scum. But, he's kept this up all through the game, even when he's said he feels unmotivated and lost. It's been an emotion, not an excuse.
Cheetory - he's had a phenomenal number of genuine moments in the game. As one example look at his strongarming and frustration at the end of this day, and his questioning of us on Espeonage.
------ above this line will not flip scum -------
singer - her level of engagement here vs in her scum games simply leaves no comparison. it's ridiculous to call this play scum. Additionally, regfan's contributions are far more likely to come from town-reg than scum-reg. since ASOIAF, nacho has approached Empire reads carefully. he found Empire's play to be very town, and his replace out to be stratospheric levels of town. he can't see Zar, who prides himself on his scum game replacing out because of heat from Tammy. Also, don't forget to look at Empire's other replace-out in this contest.
Mastin, the only reason this read isn't in the next-up section is because of your scum read. Without that it would be 100%. With that, Nacho feels it's 95% this slot flips town.
titus - stuff nacho loves about her play: the interactions with Ika through GiF, crumbing her sign to him, telling him he should be townreading her, he loves the way she freaked out about possibly outing Alquin. he feels titus' interactions with mastin wouldn't happen that way if she were scum. he thinks the way she's tried to get mastin and us to agree on a lynch is insanely town. 2352 is a strong town tell. the comment re not getting invited into townblocs is a strong towntell. Telling mastin she's not conftown is a strong town tell. Nacho fully believes scum-titus would be willing to buddy mastin for a seat at the townbloc table, which is exactly what didn't happen. the waffle on singer-scum is a towntell. the only reason to do that is to buddy us, and we're dead in a few hours - no reason to buddy us.
------- gap - more to come --------------
paraphrasing while keeping the full gist takes a lot of time. bear with me.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:45 am
by fferyllt
oh - the only reason titus isn't 100% is because nacho usually has uncertainty in his titus reads. not having uncertainty is ironically a source of small uncertainty.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:51 am
by hitogoroshi
VC 95 (Major Day 1, VC 57)
(6)
Espeonage:
Shadoweh, Cheetory6, ChannelDelibird, Aronis, ActionDan, Titus [L-4]
(4)
ChannelDelibird:
Formerfish, Bulbazak, TellTaleHeart, Espeonage
(ActionDan, Titus)
(3)
mastin2:
Gammagooey, Untrod Tripod, vezokpiraka
(Cheetory6, ChannelDelibird)
(1)
ActionDan:
DeasVail
(1)
Gammagooey:
Oversoul
(1)
Titus:
singersigner
(1)
DeasVail:
mastin2
(0)
singersigner:
(mastin2)
(1)
Not Voting:
GuyinFreezer
(Aronis)
With 18 votes in play, it takes 10 to lynch. Deadline is Saturday, April 25th, at 9PM CST.
Bulbazak is V/LA until April 27th. GuyInFreezer is V/LA until April 27th.
Just over 3 hours until deadline.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 12:05 pm
by fferyllt
Next chunk
mastin2 - Nacho has seen this stubborn read-pushing but relatively low engagement style from mastin-town a couple times in recent memory. he's never seen it from mastin-scum. This style of play alienates her from player lists (unless there's a huge contingent of players who know her fairly well) and makes her an easier lynch target. he agrees with me that the incessant crumbing is not something he's seen from her as scum. The mindset behind her "walking deadwoman" posting which, as Regfan has pointed out, only makes it more difficult for her to explain being alive at endgame. In this game, scum-mastin would be aiming to be alive at endgame. Some of her stranger reads, e.g., Cheetory-scum, singer-scum, DV (nacho disagreed with DV-scum once but not so strongly anymore) are scumreads that won't be getting lynched anytime soon - not easy to push if scum, and in total alienate her from the rest of the playerlist to some extent. She would be pushing easy mislynches if scum townread. her mindset is quite simply not a scum mindset.
Vezokpiraka - Nacho's main reason for townreading Vezok can't be talked about in this game, but it's there and it's informed this read for much of the game. Vezok tracing TTH to DV is a good towntell. it's possible that the scumteam realized that most players are going to be detecting and thought that tracing and claiming it would look town as fuck, and that this scumteam would and decide to give the tracing results to vezok to claim since he already knew someone's sign . It's possible, but Nacho doesn't find it all that likely. His aggressive push on TTH after the Trace on her, and the continued pushing of her even after he moves off the wagon, and his hostil interactions with mastin after that wagon falls down) also feels very town. When you look at the evolution of his mastin read, it has a surprisingly good progression behind it. (I would call this awesome trajectory!) he doesn't think all of this focus from vezok is something he'd think to fake as scum.
Aronis - I already posted our thoughts on his meta. The way Copper took specific interest in TTH and TTH only ( which was to the point where he encouraged a push initially, and then backed off before the wagon began disintegrating) seemed pretty fucking town. scum!copper expecting TTH to townread him from that interaction alone is unlikely.
Espeonage - Nacho backed off this Espeonage as a scumread mostly for the way that he claimed early, treated his VT claim (attempted to WIFOM scum by claiming his sign, offered to claim Cheetory's sign). Both those interactions follow the cryptic way he's treated his role in other games where he's been engaged as a PR. Nacho also still kinda likes his interaction with Tammy.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 12:16 pm
by mastin2
I'm working on a VCA, but multitasking. Posting where I am now so it goes through.
Spoiler: VCA stuffs
In [url=/forum/viewtopic.php?p=6723084#p6723084]post 416[/url], hitogoroshi wrote:(3)
Gammagooey:
ActionDan, vezokpiraka, Marquis [L-7]
(3)
Zar
: Tammy, Bulbazak, Titus [L-7]
(2)
vezokpiraka:
T S O, ChannelDelibird
(1)
No Bane:
GuyInFreezer
(1)
Mastin2:
Shadoweh
(1)
Marquis:
Gammagooey
(1)
Bulbazak:
DeasVail
(1)
Untrod Tripod:
Cheetory6
(DeasVail)
(1)
Titus:
mastin2
(T S O, ChannelDelibird)
(0)
Cheetory6:
(Bulbazak)
(0)
ChannelDelibird:
(Titus, Cheetory6)
(5)
No Bane Vote:
Antihero, Aronis, Espeonage, Untrod Tripod, Zar
(mastin2)
Starting from here, btw. The Zar Bane is the first to get any real support, and boy does it look towndriven. The Gamma one contemporary to it (okay technically it was first, I guess, butstill) is solidly "meh".
Two on, one off the Gamma wagon. (Marquis/Fish leaves to join the Empire wagon, too.) Empire and Cheetory join. I can see this as coming from any combination of alignments, though.
DeasVail, Gammagooey, Shadoweh, Cheetory6, Titus, vezokpiraka, GuyInFreezer, Aronis, Tammy, T S O
(Tammy)
[Decided!]
(2)
Empire
: Bulbazak, Marquis
(GuyInFreezer)
(3)
vezokpiraka:
T S O, ChannelDelibird, Untrod Tripod
(2)
Gammagooey:
ActionDan, Empire
(1)
Titus:
mastin2
(3)
No Bane Vote:
Aronis, Espeonage, TellTaleHeart
(Aronis, Tammy, Tammy)
Then, ten hours later, BAM.
But the only possible scum later-on is Aronis.
DV, Gamma, Cheetory, vezok, and Aronis are the possible scum names.
DV I'm pretty sure is scum.
Cheetory is a gut-scumread.
Gamma's a possible scum as well, but not an absolute one.
Aronis is not particularly appealing one way or another.
Neither is vezok.
So this is a critical VC, it's just one that we need a bit of time to realize is one.
When it comes to the boon, like the choice, I'm skipping it, because it mostly seems like theory. There may be some theoretical scum-sided stance (like maybe vezok got booned because he wouldn't use it in a threatening manner?), but I don't think I'd be able to pick it out.
Actiondan, Deasvail, GuyinFreezer, mastin2, Shadoweh, TellTaleHeart, T S O, Untrod Tripod
(Cheetory6)
Peak of the TTH wagon. In hindsight, this was...really, really not towndriven. Titus and Tammy are town. But all the other names I could see as scum, most-likely to least likely being Empire, Cheetory, | Aronis, Marquis, and vezok.
I quote this one because it shows the first Esp wagon peak at ~8 names (not sure they were all on at once), along with the emergence of the singer wagon. The start of the singer wagon is a bit sketchy, but the townbloc not so much. The Esp wagon in contrast is kinda...meh. Not bad, not terrible, but just meh.
Second peak of the Esp wagon, with a grand total of three solid townreads in there: CDB, Shadoweh, and sorta GIF. Add in a UT-not-likely-scum read, and you've got an
I'd also like to point out the awesomeness of the singer wagon. The only iffy name there is Gamma.
I'll continue as I can.
/multitasking.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 12:20 pm
by DeasVail
Vote: Espeonage
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 12:29 pm
by ChannelDelibird
I'm a bit more here now than I was before but I've also got some other stuff to do before bed. Given that it looks like I'm going to survive the Day, I don't think there's a great deal pressing for me to do right now beyond continue to check the thread for changes. Mostly just posting to confirm that I'm more or less up to date and to say thanks ffery for playing on in a pretty thankless position and for putting together these reads before you go.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 12:46 pm
by fferyllt
Nacho's CDB Read
406 Nacho is pretty sure that CDB was one of the first people to bring up the "let's not Bane #1 scummiest" approach. This fits and makes sense given CDB claiming he's an investigative PR. I love it when you can find early evidence of the mindset that a specific PR should give a town player.
In 920 he reiterates this, and makes a weak towntell into a strong one.
The Westeros push that CDB is somehow scummy because they don't believe town-CES would take a position about vezok being hard to read when he's actually pretty transparent. Reasons why this doesn't look scum motivated - there is no real scum motivation for scum-CDB to bane vezok rather than anyone else. And, scum-CES wouldn't lie ab out a player being unreadable because it's a dumb thing to lie about.
We've talked already about CDB's push on Empire about lack of empathy looking town. Nacho has done some meta research looking at CDB's emotions in scumgames and still feels this is a type of emotional manipulation that he can't easily see coming from scum-CDB.
His questions about whether to out Aronis's sign before he died was also very town.
CDB is holding the same top 5 townreads Gestalt does, and this feels good. Even more so because he talks about having a LOT of confidence in his townreads but not a lot of confidence in his scumreads. That's how we're feeling about the game as well.
Overall, CDB is a strong townread for Nacho.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 12:46 pm
by mastin2
TOWNBLOC:
TellTaleHeart (TTH is town, period)
Bulbazak
Titus
Shadoweh
TOWN:
Oversoul/Tammy
GuyInFreezer (GIF off of Titus-trust)
ChanelDeliBird (I fully believe CDB's claim)
ActionDan (I hated the wagon on him)
lmfao.
I'm hoping moreso that Espe flips scum so you can feel bad for using VCA/ignoring the possibility of bussing on day fucking one of all times in the game.
I'm seriously just laughing at the idea that you think VCAs are useful on Day One.
Like.
Wow.
Scum please kill me.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 12:52 pm
by Cheetory6
Like, if you're town.
I'm going to be seriously disappointed in how you decided to use the last three hours of this cycle.
Choosing to do tilted/awful VCAs with absolutely no information to put into them just feels like such a cop-out/bullshit way of trying to analyze the game.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:00 pm
by fferyllt
TTH - Nacho thinks that 1486 seems like a strange approach to take to the game for tth-scum. it's a hell of a claim to make and she could have at least tried to fight off the wagon without claiming and locking herself into a potentially bad situation on day 2. and yet, she didn't even so much as try. Her scumhunting isn't particularly terrible, though it'd be great if she was more engaged than she has been. her comment on DV's lynch pool is decent. #2492 as a reiteration of her power looks town as shit. Anti's reachout to mastin because of townread looks pretty town. Also, turning on her strongest defender (mastin) is additionally very town, and a town defender is not something a scum player would want to put at risk. behaviorally, the attitude she's put into the thread so far does make sense from a player who expects to be confirmed town eventually.
Even if she doesn't confirm herself tomorrow, nacho wouldn't immediately lynch her. scum roleblockers and such are a thing after all.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:02 pm
by fferyllt
@DeasVail
Nacho would like to know if you have about 20 minutes to chat-by-proxy with him.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:06 pm
by DeasVail
I do! I can't promise that I'm super up-to-date with the game because I'm not, but I'd love to talk.
On here, again, the names jumping out are singer and Cheetory.
Titus is town. CDB is pretty dang town. GIF I'm trusting to be town, and I don't see Dan as scum. Gamma/vezok could be, but Nacho trust + natural read = not pursuing.
The main thing that makes me doubt my line of pursuit is this.
CDB is a townread. Yet...who on the wagon is scum? The only names that're currently in my considering pile are Fish and Esp.
(At this point, though, I DO think that one of Formerfish/Aronis is scum...like Bulb said ages ago. And not the other one.)
There's definitely a scum on my wagon, too. Not CDB, but the only names left are Cheetory and UT, with UT as doubtfully scum. So this does reinforce my Cheet scumread.
Not much here, not much changed.
I'm not right. On everything, I know I'm not right.
Still feels fairly close, though.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:13 pm
by fferyllt
↑DeasVail wrote:I do! I can't promise that I'm super up-to-date with the game because I'm not, but I'd love to talk.
Awesome, thanks.
Right now, what is your scumpool - players you think have an ok-ish to decent chance of flipping scum?
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:15 pm
by DeasVail
ActionDan, Bulbazak, Gamma, Shadow, TTH
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:17 pm
by DeasVail
Aronis maybe too, but that's more from PoE than anything in particular about him so I wouldn't say I think he's scum.
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:18 pm
by ChannelDelibird
Gotta go to bed, so it's Espeonage or bust, I guess. See you on the other side.