Mini 1802: Paint Mafia Sequel - Game Over!

[TellTaleHeart]

Hi everyone, let's play.



Preview Edit: Yay! ^_^

[TellTaleHeart]

Is there anything I should keep in mind while going over what's happened so far?

[TellTaleHeart]

Could someone please take SS off of L-1 as I'm catching up as a courtesy please? :3
I would really appreciate it.

[TellTaleHeart]

I see Katsuki flipped red.
Is everyone thinking that's not definitive because it's assumed scum have a similar factional ability they did in the first game?

[TellTaleHeart]

Whoever's in beeboy and UTL's slots are probably town.

[TellTaleHeart]

for TTH, a lot of where I stand on S_S/Katsuki (and reads-wise in general) is in my posts this game day, so I'm really hoping once you get to there you'll be able to at least actually discuss it with me unlike what's been going on ever since RC came into the game. I don't think Katsuki's recent play looks like anything he would do as scum and I find the wagon on him really questionable.

Is there a compelling reason why scum would've painted Katsuki?

[TellTaleHeart]

I'm shocked you all lynched lalaladucks.

Her interactions with Ari point very strongly to her being town.

[TellTaleHeart]

Has anyone checked out TBG's miller claim?

[TellTaleHeart]

I think TSQ's opening posts are kind of town. :\

I think TBG's opening posts are kind of scum.

[TellTaleHeart]

Having a color miller

and

giving scum the ability to paint seems like overpowering scum to me.

[TellTaleHeart]

So far, the people I want to lynch are neither of the leading wagons.

[TellTaleHeart]

for TTH, a lot of where I stand on S_S/Katsuki (and reads-wise in general) is in my posts this game day, so I'm really hoping once you get to there you'll be able to at least actually discuss it with me unlike what's been going on ever since RC came into the game. I don't think Katsuki's recent play looks like anything he would do as scum and I find the wagon on him really questionable.

I'm through page 43 and if my two choices are really Something_Smart and Katsuki, I would definitely go with Katsuki.

[TellTaleHeart]

{Pie, Katsuki, Bella}

We are flipping and lynching in these 3.

Replace pie with TBG and this is where I am in terms of reads.

[TellTaleHeart]

I don't think Katsuki's recent play looks like anything he would do as scum and I find the wagon on him really questionable.

I can't say I agree on either of those counts.

[TellTaleHeart]

Katsuki's earlier posts directed to me (from 1137) are a huge towntell, because in addition to it perfectly explaining his behavior over the course of the game, I do not know him to be anywhere near the type of player who would feign that much disengagement from the game as scum. I've seen him lurk as scum but it's always strategic, it's never like _that_. the general tone of his posts today (I've never seen him be this openly dissatisfied with a game) and the fact he's decided he'd just sheep me/Nahdia at this point (which is something I believe he does at least semi-regularly) are both consistent with this, too.

I'm trying to parse this town read and I feel like you're saying, "Katsuki isn't scum because if he

were

he would fit a different behavior pattern." Is that correct?

Admittedly, I have very limited acquaintance with Katsuki's meta so that may be why it's not really resonating with me.

[TellTaleHeart]

VOTE: TehBrawlGuy

This is who I feel is likeliest to flip scum of the bunch.

[TellTaleHeart]

@tth what do you think of this?

Pie is a very strong pick for it actually, given that she's trying to make this a pissing contest that I think she knows that she doesn't win.

But this is so weird
Can it really be that easy?
Something is off, this setup seems really disadvantageous for scum
I'm pretty sure there's some new twist to color manipulation going on in this game that we haven't figured out yet
The color flip phase makes the first two days equivalent to four days...that's way too much information in a short period of time and makes surviving difficult for scum

I think town knowing colors can be manipulated right from the beginning greatly undermines mafia's power. It would make more sense if town are ignorant of color manipulation at first and the PRs are forced to soft in order to inform town...but that's not even the case here. So there must be something on the scum side to balance powers with town bc this seems unfair from scum pov

I don't really get your point here.

Knowing colors can be manipulated undermines the perceived reliability of the "color flipping" after Day 1, which works in scum's favor since the results get more and more ambiguous and less and less actionable.

[TellTaleHeart]

My main point is, 2 flips per day generate more information than usual in the first two days

I don't think that makes it townsided.

10:3 (which I'm assuming unless there's reason to think otherwise) is inherently very scumsided. The mechanic by itself doesn't bridge the gap.

[TellTaleHeart]

TBG is someone who I have huge conflicting feelings on. I hated some of his posts D1 and his interactions with lala D2 and RC this game day, but aside from that I haven't taken issue with any of his posts and I think he'd look really good on a S_S scum flip. I don't think I agree the miller claim would make this scum sided, though, since more likely than not it'd just claim immediately; it's just one player who can't be reliably color flipped no matter what. or am I missing your point?

You are, but that's because I haven't really outlined my point yet.

A lot of what he's done, the early pushes on Nina, Ranger, and lalaladucks, just rub me in all the wrong ways and they were all on town. The Ari vote felt like a bus. Ari's mentioning of him was very weak and perfunctory. I also think he's sticking to you way too much.

I don't buy the claim, but that's the last bullet on the list.

[TellTaleHeart]

also I'd be interested in hearing if you think S_S has made a single reasonable point in his interactions with people about me. the vast majority of what he's written recently has been overly semantic, and read more like he's nitpicking on minor things in order to look like he has a point than actually doing anything - which maybe he's just really illogical, but he's doing things like asking me random questions about irrelevant things or getting in an argument over how TBG's reason for town reading me not being "enough to warrant a strong town read", instead of just trying to explain to people why I'm scum. the focus here is just all wrong and off.

I haven't read all your points on S_S and I will do that now. But I'll give you my first impression of him.

I think he's either town or he's playing a total "refuge-in-audacity" scumgame. There's not really evidence of planning ahead or scheming. Going after you as a busser as opposed to one of the weaker links of the Ari wagon (e.g. Bella) seems like a suboptimal scum play. Going for a Katsuki color flip and then

not

pushing that lynch once it came up red doesn't seem like a play scum would make either.

If he's scum here, then frankly I'm pretty impressed at the balls it took to play a scumgame like this.

[TellTaleHeart]

His push on you was

never

going anywhere, pie, and you'd have to pretty delusional to think otherwise.

[TellTaleHeart]

Yet here we are with an unlynched Katsuki.

[TellTaleHeart]

also I'd be interested in hearing if you think S_S has made a single reasonable point in his interactions with people about me.

Not really, but I don't think anything he's said has been

really

out there. I also don't think rationality is tightly connected with alignment.

I say this knowing your definition of what you think is "reasonable" very likely differs from mine. For example,

not enough to justify a strong townread, especially given that immediately afterward she used the towncred she got from the first lynch to push through another lynch onto town.

I find this fucking hilarious. your argument here basically amounts to "it's scummy that she lynched a town player", which... what?, and you're making this argument directly after conceding earlier that in no way would I have needed to bus in order to navigate this game as scum.

you're not genuinely attempting to read or sort me. you've decided that "she bussed Aris D1" would be a good somewhat-believable angle for feigning a read on me and are bending over backwards inventing reasons to justify it, rather than attempting to read my play.

Confession: It crossed my mind that you thought you could get an easy ducks mislynch after the Ari lynch flipped scum.
The details are missing from his line of reasoning, but I thought the gist of what he was saying was reasonable.

[TellTaleHeart]

I'm about to go to bed so here's my tiered reads list.

{pieguyn, Dwlee99, Nahdia, kraska77}
{Something_Smart, Zulfy}
{Bellaphant}
{Katsuki}
{TehBrawlGuy}

[TellTaleHeart]

I was going to take the time today to make a case on pie, but with RC's replace out it seems the odds are one to zero against her being lynched in the near future.

You would be correct in that assessment.

[TellTaleHeart]

So I'm crossing out pie and tgb as scum #3 candidates because they're sticking out their necks too much in a way that doesn't make sense for scum survivalism

Being in the shadow of one of the most opinionated people in the game is the exact opposite of "sticking his neck out."

[TellTaleHeart]

well, shit.

let me think.

@TTH:

for the most part, yes. if you want I can link the scum games of his I've seen so you can get more of a feel for what I'm trying to say here?

you really don't want me to do this? I think if you look at how he tends to play when he's scum, it's pretty obvious that it doesn't look the same as here.

I'm not hard scum reading anything Kat's doing but the red flip still looms and I'm not townreading him either.

You can go ahead and do it but I can't guarantee I'll put much stock into it.

[TellTaleHeart]

@pie: tbh I kinda expected more people to sheep RC. So when I saw that wasn't happening (and other wagons were building up instead), I was going to make a case on you.

SS seems to be doing his best to prove I was wrong about him.

[TellTaleHeart]

He is openly sheeping pie and joins her whenever she's grilling someone, yes...but he's being just as vocal about all of this as she is. and the way he was constantly discrediting rc is idiotic play if he's scum

Not really. By himself, he wouldn't be able to carry this game and I think he's well aware of that.

[TellTaleHeart]

Pie, I think TBG is a great place for us to meet in the middle. It sounds like you're picking up on the same things I am and you haven't given any reason to think he's town.

I have my doubts about Katsuki so I'll hold off lynching there (but if TBG really is scum I expect Kat to go tomorrow).

[TellTaleHeart]

If you think he's scum, who do you have as possible partner? Do you not agree katsuki would have flipped blue if he were teamed with tgb?

Bella
I don't agree at all and I don't know how you arrived at that conclusion.

[TellTaleHeart]

Who besides my slot has ever called TBG scum?

[TellTaleHeart]

Everyone? Everyone has tgb in their scum pool iirc

Fuck, I had no idea I had to deal with a Titus mini-me.

[TellTaleHeart]

Here's what's happening: pie isn't going to let a Kat lynch go through and I'm not 100% sure that's what I want anyway. I don't think I want S_S to be today's lynch either.

TBG is probably scum and it's someone I would work with pie on. If you have a reason for thinking TBG is town, explain it using words. Otherwise, you're just being an obstructionist and you're doing more damage to the game state than scum could ever hope to do.

[TellTaleHeart]

Everyone? Everyone has tgb in their scum pool iirc

Fuck, I had no idea I had to deal with a Titus mini-me.

im not pulling this stuff out of my butt
nobody townreads tgb(except dwlee hehe), which means everyone finds him scummy to some degree, he's nobody's priority lynch or priority to sort out but he's in everyone's scum pool

Alright-y

Why does that make him town? Don't tell me "secondary scumreads are usually town." I haven't kept data, but I've been on this site for two years and that doesn't sound like a very salient trend.

[TellTaleHeart]

so all things considered, I think it's pretty likely Katsuki is town here.

I'm not looking to fight you on this and I appreciate that you put the effort into making that post.

That said, I'm not sold. How much effort someone puts into a game or how much someone enjoys a game depends a lot more on just alignment they drew. It's possible that he had a lot more synergy with his scumteams in the games you linked or he simply meshed with the player lists more.

[TellTaleHeart]

my premise: katsuki is scum
therefore it follows that tgb is not scum bc katsuki flipped red and not blue

My rebuttal: No.

[TellTaleHeart]

I don't know what you're screaming about.

I'm being as transparent in my argument as you are.

[TellTaleHeart]

where is the problem here?

The problem is that you're

insisting

Kat and TBG

absolutely can't

be scum together for some ~phantasmagorical~ reason.

[TellTaleHeart]

Agreed. I hope you reconsider if TBG flips scum.

[TellTaleHeart]

can you explain why you town read Nahdia?

if I'm right about Katsuki and he flips town and I'm dead and a blue scum hasn't flipped, then I can say with confidence I don't want her anywhere near LYLO.

She has interactions with Aristophanes, specifically too many of them, that make me think they're not scumbuddies.

The blue flip doesn't hurt.

[TellTaleHeart]

She has interactions with Aristophanes, specifically too many of them, that make me think they're not scumbuddies.

The blue flip doesn't hurt.

her interactions with Aris are actually something that I keep coming back to and questioning. on her side, I didn't see anything of note up until 575, which was the only time she actually talked about or implied any kind of read on Aris and then she never followed through on it. on Aris' side, there's 342, which I don't know if he would do this or not but that's actually exactly the kind of thing I like to do to my scum partners since the vast majority of people auto-assume scum won't hard town read each other.

can you point me to what I'm missing here?

My assessment is colored by what just happened in Queen Mafia when I was scum with Ari. If you have extra time, go count the number of meaningful interactions he has with me over the course of the game. If you don't have extra time, I'll go ahead and tell you it's zero.

[TellTaleHeart]

He is openly sheeping pie and joins her whenever she's grilling someone, yes...but he's being just as vocal about all of this as she is. and the way he was constantly discrediting rc is idiotic play if he's scum

Not really. By himself, he wouldn't be able to carry this game and I think he's well aware of that.

I could if I felt like it - I've done it in enough games. Obviously I don't feel like it, though. I agree with Pie's content and don't really want to put in much more effort beyond quick looks at ISOs to verify that.

Regarding everything else, you (and pie both) have given me little to respond to. Either push me so we can actually do something with this wagon or don't and go push elsewhere. I'd give you a ton of shit for the lazy push if you two weren't conftown and my biggest town read.

Who's scum besides S_S?

[TellTaleHeart]

Two half-baked snippets on the two lowest hanging fruit available and

I'm

the lazy one here?

Sure...

[TellTaleHeart]

I'm super conflicted about lala's last set of posting, because some of it vibed town, but there's an air of manufacturing seems super scummy.

Also, her meta read on me seems pulled out of the air: lala, can we talk about what this is based on?

Ari's beetlejuicing (lol, tbg) is suspect though: ari, even if you are skimming some of the walls, which, admittedly I am this week, what's your take on the general game state? What do you think is going on with pie/ranger? Have you had much experience with stream of consciousness lala? Because I don't think I have, which is what's making me 0.0 my meta read.

Ari's beetlejuicing (lol, tbg) is suspect though: ari, even if you are skimming some of the walls, which, admittedly I am this week, what's your take on the general game state? What do you think is going on with pie/ranger? Have you had much experience with stream of consciousness lala? Because I don't think I have, which is what's making me 0.0 my meta read.

I have zero games with Lala ever besides this one. So I have no basis for a read there but this game.

I will have to get back to you on Pie/Ranger. Gimme another day or two and I'll have something.

Now that you mention it though, this interaction does

not

have a scum-scum feel to it.

Bella's end of the interaction feels too detailed and prodding. I also think if they were scum, she probably should've known that Ari didn't have any experience with lala since that's a topic of discussion in nearly every pregame scum PT.

[TellTaleHeart]

Don't just throw it out there.

Vote it out there.

[TellTaleHeart]

Nahdia could you please join the the TBG wagon? :3
There's 3 days left to deadline and I'd like not to have a last-minute scramble.

[TellTaleHeart]

I might not be here tomorrow. ;_;

[TellTaleHeart]

We only have about a day left.
Can we please get 2 more TBG votes so we can get on with this?