Newbie 1926: Baseball (Game Over)

[teacher]

Pagetop reminder that Godmid is L-1 and should claim.

[the worst]

Catch ya tomorrow teacher/Urist.
I'm back home now sadly so more available :'{

[Godmid]

I'll write a defense towards urap2's posts if I get the opportunity, but I want to make sure that I get the chance to write my closing thoughts before the end of the day since I have the potential of getting hammered at any moment.

Two clusters have emerged during the day. The "core town" cluster which has composed of TW, urap2, Urist and Lavender, and the "scum suspect" cluster which has composed of myself, Denmon, Ryno and Marcus(recently replaced by Teacher). Shoshin probably could have integrated herself with the town cluster, but due to her extremely lurky nature after the start of the game, she has just turned into a massive question mark. All of the members of the town cluster have been almost solely focusing their scum reads towards players in the scum cluster while the focus of the players in the scum cluster haven't been concentrated in the same way.

This isn't that insightful since the general existence of this dynamic should be fairly obvious to everyone. However, it's worth remembering that the emergence of these two clusters along with it's members was fairly clear very early on in the game.

Beyond this, there are a few other factors that are going into my current opinion...


1) Even though I know urap's conclusion that I am mafia is incorrect, it's clear that he has put far more thought into his argument for scum reading me then I initially believed back when I thought that it was just based on the "greeting tell" and that the exemption on TheWhig/Urist slot might have just been sheeping The Worst. As such, I have even more doubt about my case against TW/urap2, and I think that even if there is a scum among them, my approach may have been incorrect and based upon a flawed belief.

2) My lynch is unlikely to upset the overall balance of the game in terms of lynch priority. That is to say, if I'm lynched, the next day will most likely begin with the players who pushed for my lynch giving their shocked reaction to my town flip, then rationalizing it off as the correct call due to my scummy appearance, then once again looking to lynch from the remaining players in the cluster (Denmon, Rhyno, Teacher; most likely Denmon or Rhyno). Night actions might have some impact, but the likelihood of this scenario should be pretty clear to whoever the scum are, which carry's on into my next point...

3) Even if my case towards a scum among TW and urap2 was completely unfounded, it still presented an opportunity for scum to try and point suspicion towards the town cluster. However, there was relatively little movement in spite of this. Denmon was the only other player to point suspicion in that direction. Rhyno and Marcus/Teacher have both been content to go along with the lynch, even though there is a high chance that the attention will turn back to one of them tomorrow as mentioned above.


My current opinion...

I don't think that both of the scum are in the Rhyno, Denmon and Teacher group. Main reasons for this are that...

A) If both of the scum were in that group (especially if it was Rhyno + Denmon) I think that there would be a lot of movement from those players since it should be fairly obvious to them that they will be at the top of the suspect list tomorrow (hard to say whether the players who voted for Marcus will carry their suspicions over onto Teacher). As mentioned though, Rhyno is playing way more passively then what would be expected if this was the case.

B) It is unlikely that the scum team is Denmon + Teacher due to the interactions between Demon + Marcus when Denmon first subbed in (I'm pretty sure that TW picked up on it if I remember correct). It's possible that the interaction was staged (which would have been clever), but it seems genuine from my perspective.

C) I still lean town on Rhyno and I'll take one more swing at trying to articulate this point. Generally when players are scum, their focus is to act pro-town to avoid getting lynched and whenever they do something more overtly scummy, it's with some intent to swing the gamestate into a more favorable position for scum. I don't think this matches how Rhyno has been playing. With some of his posts, they have been openly controversial or borderline contradictory with other posts he has made. For example, he has been openly criticizing the use of reads, then immediately engaging in the use of reads. He has also been actively uncooperative with some of the people who have questioned him even when there isn't that clear of a scum motive to act in that way. I think it's less likely he would be playing this way if he was mafia and I think that calling him out for being uncooperative when there isn't much of a reason for mafia to be uncooperative is lazy.

Then between Denmon + Teacher, I lean scum more on Denmon. Firstly, his reaction to the greeting tell just seemed odd.

Eh? How do greetings correlate with being mafia? I've never seen this before in my experience

Huh, that is pretty strange. I think it is more of a coincidence than something that mafia just does. But just in case, I guess I'll keep my eye out for Godmid then O.o

This actually makes sense. (Should I not introduce myself in future games to reduce possible suspicion xD I normally do this when I don't know many people)
I'm actually gonna take this, and see if it checks out from where I usually play. I'm playing another game there that recently started that has a good amount of noobs O.o

I wanted to question it before I made assumptions as I never have seen the greeting tell before. I also don't think it is a very strong tell and that we should rely on other reasons to find who is red. You mentioned you had experience in forum mafia, right? Maybe the greeting tell doesn't apply to us because we aren't complete noobs, but I haven't looked too much into this to say it doesn't.

Not sure what else you would want me to say here. It's a bit of a vague question

While this is partially based off of his reaction being different then my own reaction (hard skepticism), it has the feel of someone who isn't sure how to proceed with the situation. It goes from heavy skepticism to softer skepticism + shading another player for the tell to acceptance of the tell back to uncertain skepticism. Additionally, some of his posts seem opportunistic.

Some of Marcus' posts did seem odd or forced which is a point that has already been brought up, but I'm still not scum reading the slot that heavily off of it.

If Denmon ends up being scum, I think Urist makes the most sense as the second mafia. As mentioned above, I don't think that Denmon is on a team with Rhyno or Teacher. urap2 and TW are also unlikely teammates, leaving Urist, Lavendar and Shoshin (as mentioned, Shoshin is pretty much just a wild card after her massive lurking). Among these options, Urist makes a lot of sense due to the people he chose to push on. Even though his accusations towards Marcus and Rhyno seemed pro-town at the time since he wasn't just sheeping the most obvious targets, he was still targeting two of the more vulnerable lynch targets which was clear at the time that he posted. As such, if Denmon is mafia, there is a decent chance that Urist may have been positioning himself to appear pro town, then once urap2+TW caused a D1 mislynch on me, he would have looked to take control of the lynch after lost credibility onto urap2+TW, leading the town into more mislynches.

I'm not really thinking of the possibility that myself, Denmon, Rhyno + Marcus/Teacher are all town since I will show some faith in the ability of the experienced town players within the town cluster to not completely misidentify the suspects day 1. Of those, Denmon is the one whose behavior I see as the most suspicious.

I will be sad if TW is mafia and chose his lynch targets to match with urap2.

Again, I'll respond to urap2's case in full if given the chance. The meaning behind my opening posts concerning Shoshin have been heavily misinterpreted and quite a few of the other points are just scum reading my normal habits (I'm naturally quite wordy with my sentence structure). However, these are the main points I want to give before days end.

Tldr; I don't think both of the mafia are among Rhyno, Denmon and Teacher. If I had to make a guess towards the scum team, I am leaning towards Denmon + Urist. Denmon because I think he makes the most sense as mafia from the players being suspected and Urist because I think he is the player who makes the most sense as being Denmon's teammate if Denmon is mafia. If Denmon is town, Urist is probably also town and the scum team possibilities become quite wide.

[Godmid]

I'll throw down my token vote.

VOTE: DENMON

Then for my final claim, I am not a power role.

@brassherald, I know you probably only included it because of the midway baseball section, but I absolutely love Paradise by the Dashboard Light!

[the worst]

though it's cold and lonely in the deep dark night
i can see paradise in the denmon wagon

VOTE: DENMON

urist/urap i'm sorry i'm doing that thing again where i drive people to the edge then change my mind

[the worst]

i'll be around for a few hours & plenty tmrw if anyone wants to talk to me about things but i have EXCITING THOUGHTS

[teacher]

Excite me duck

VOTE: Denmon

[the worst]

if godmid is scum he's being bussed
denmon's reaction to godmid being wagonned is scum indicative regardless of alignment

if godmid thinks he's going down (very possible due to stagnant activity levels) and is w/w with {denmon,urst} it makes sense to attempt a last minute distance
BUT i think gamestate/lack of cw softly suggests that he's either town, or scum doesn't have enough power to force a counterwagon (either are very possible given lurky gamestate). his post just now was actually kind of solvey and not a wolfy reaction to being wagoned but this is just a ping


if we are looking at godmid/denmon then we're steering off godmid onto the partner he wants to set up as a deepwolf so i'm just gonna vote my biggest scumread

[DENMON]

Ok sorry I was gone yesterday. I don't think u r a person 2 is red anymore because he put a lot more effort into lynching Godmid than I thought he would. Usually reds don't like to start bandwagons unless under certain circumstances. However, I don't actually like the reasoning used to call Godmid scum. He is just picking phrases that can seem scummy, but honestly I can do that for anybody and make a case for it. I can see a green saying the stuff that Godmid said that u r a person 2 is saying is suspicious. The reasoning is pretty weak, and we need to focus on the people that are voting, and why they are voting for the best information.

I didn't like Marcus325 cause there was no reason for me to say he was green, so by process of elimination he should be red. Then teacher replaced him and I still don't like him. If Godmid and I are green, then I just see him as joining a bandwagon and wanting a lynch to occur, which is pretty red. Also I have a reason for everybody else for being green, but my thinking for Shoshin is probably the weakest. I originally thought that he would be more active in the lynchings if he was red. So my team is teacher and Shoshin.

VOTE: teacher

Oh there is like 3 votes on me now. I'm vanilla and honestly the votes are fair. I'm not playing too well. The problem I'm having is that this site has 10 days for day 1. This is far too long for a day that had basically no information. So when I'm stuck, I usually just post for the sake of posting and I don't think too much about it. Can I survive this day and try to redeem myself on day 2? Once I have information to work with, I can actually throw some solid accusations using the votes from day 1.

[PvtUrist]

Readlist haven't changed much since #283;
{the worst, Lavender}
{u r a person 2, Shoshin}
{DENMON, Godmid)
{Ryno56, Teacher}

My vote will remain on Teacher for D1, with the only exception of needing my vote to avoid D1 no-lynch.

I believe both DENMON and Godmid are town, and even more so after their latest posts. I'll go into Teacher's posts a bit, but am otherwise open to questions.

[PvtUrist]

Some comments on Teacher's posts;

Null/null-scum intro

Spoiler:

Hello. Got to read a bunch and I’m mostly a night player.

Big charisma

Spoiler:

VOTE: shoshin
quack quack

<3 been hoping to play w you again for a while.

I live and breathe the Yankees

I was at the 96 series and actually believe I started the “throw him out” chant about the Braves manager. But \_o_/

Mech talk

Spoiler:

I think I've asked this a few times, can someone point out the benefit of lynching someone today when we could wait for more information?

I'm going to let someone else go through the details because I'm sure they will do it better than I would, but rest assured that lynching d1 - even mislynching d1 - is +ev for town

I’m assuming he meant real life day rather than game day? But yea, no lynch in a 7-2 is terrible play.

Null

Spoiler:

I'm starting to be suspicious about Shoshin repeatedly pointing out her desire to help newbies, as in #41 and #50, for example. It seems a little over the top, like it's an attempt to ingratiate herself to the newbies. Therefore, in the spirit of "overstating a scumread a little," I scumread Shoshin.

VOTE: Shoshin

First total town read. Irrespective of Shoshin read, the reaction is natural.

Null/null-scum fluff content, and not relevant for town unless commented on later

Spoiler:

I don't see how you end up reading Lavender town, she's done nothing yet.

Lavender's town?

yah i think probably. not a strong read

Putting this in my ISO.

Null/Null-scum

Spoiler:

Hello everyone.

Null/null-scum appearing active, not directly beneficial to town

Spoiler:

You gave three slightly reasoned arguments for your reads here but nothing for urap2 - why?

I like this.

Null/null-scum confusing statement, no real reason for post

Spoiler:

which pair are actually working together I guess.

Associatives are fairly weak D1 I think. Almost not worth it (though I always do)

Mech talk

Spoiler:

I think I've asked this a few times, can someone point out the benefit of lynching someone today when we could wait for more information?

I'm going to let someone else go through the details because I'm sure they will do it better than I would, but rest assured that lynching d1 - even mislynching d1 - is +ev for town

I’m assuming he meant real life day rather than game day? But yea, no lynch in a 7-2 is terrible play.

I'm pretty sure he meant game day

Assuming no saves (saves are long odds), all no lynch does is turn D3 lylo into mylo, with less vca and wagon information. No lynch is a no.

Shade on Godmin/Lavender, distancing on Ryno

Spoiler:

Stopping at page 6 ftm. As of now my read is godmid and rump, with a lavender counterwagon. I’m at my parents for Easter weekend so may not be interacting all that much but feel to leave me questions about anything in particular.

Conflicting statement, agree on Lavender town desipte previous shade

Spoiler:

before we start, shoshin

can you tell me if you are town reading all of {Lav, TW, Shoshin, ME}?

That's my town bloc and if we disagree there we should work on that first

Agree.

WIFOM fluff

Spoiler:

It’s cause he knew I was coming. Clearly.

I’m actually kinda interested because my prediction was light scum to me.

+town points, +charisma, not +town agenda

Spoiler:

ALso, it is courtesy to say:

Godmid is at L-1

So nobody can say the lolhammer was an accident.

Page reminder that godmid is L-1

As TW mentioned, due to deadline that slot should claim regardless intent.

Pagetop reminder that Godmid is L-1 and should claim.

More distancing

Spoiler:

Godmid and Lavender seem to be reactive instead of proactive, so I'm reading them as the scum atm

Playstyle=/alignment.

You talked about Lav. Talk to me about God.

[teacher]

Shade on Godmin/Lavender,

I did not shade Lav in the spoiler or elsewhere. I was saying Lav was a town counterwagon as momentum picked up on God. I had them as nullishbtown the whole time.

[teacher]

joining a bandwagon and wanting a lynch to occur, which is pretty red.

Honestly at this point I will join any wagon to get it through. That’s how impt I view a day One lynch.

[teacher]

I'll go into Teacher's posts a bit, but am otherwise open to questions

How about do you have any questions for me? In my two days in the game I put out a hell of a lot more posts and content than you, so asking (and getting things - like my read on Lav - right) might actually be better.

[PvtUrist]

How about do you have any questions for me?

Not really

In my two days in the game I put out a hell of a lot more posts and content than you

Cool story

so asking (and getting things - like my read on Lav - right) might actually be better.

Feint

[Ryno56]

Sorry if I've missed any questions. I haven't really been enjoying this game, so I haven't paid much attention to it. I don't want to quit so I'll be following kinda passively. If anyone has a question, ask me

[teacher]

First of all your wall is a bitch to react to on mobile. There’s a lot I’d like to say but I can’t excerpt and respond the way I’d like.

1. I’d love for you to explain how my intro is null-scum, but my calling out the same thing in Godmid’s intro is also null scum. Tbh that makes zero sense unless it’s conf bias.

2. How on gods green earth is sharing reads - with reasons (unlike

somebody’s

readslist) “null” (Whig), null-scum (Godmid), or “not directly beneficial to town” (Robotnick2). Should I just not comment on other slots other than to call them “sexy town”?

3. Asking questions - like why someone townread a someone I suspected (even if my pred) - is “fluff” how exactly?

4. You may call ryno distancing, but maybe you want to reconsider scumreading the only other player who shares your read of that slot? If you can get a wagon there, I’d be more than happy to vote.

Sorry just not understanding your two line summaries or how they can present a consistent world view.

[teacher]

Godmid and Lavender seem to be reactive instead of proactive, so I'm reading them as the scum atm

Playstyle=/alignment.

You talked about Lav. Talk to me about God.

@ryno.

[u r a person 2]

Then for my final claim, I am not a power role.

This is the lynch today, and I really don't know what you guys are thinking to be bouncing around. I won't be around til later today

[Ryno56]

I'm fine with lynching Godmid

[the worst]

I'd rather lynch a slot I feel better about flipping red tbh
Urist's reaction to teacher's repin is an extremely forced read and my townresd there just instantly vanished

[teacher]

It’s sleepytown in here. I need some shoshin in my life.

Honestly I’m fine w whichever of my PoE pool can get across the line before deadline. I had earlier and harder vibes from Godmid but am willing to go along to get a lynch through.

[teacher]

I'm fine with lynching Godmid

I can tell. But why? Kindly case.

The new rules are that I cannot encourage replacing, and I get the reasons for that. But you signed up for a game, so kindly contribute.

[the worst]

I'll be around before the end of the day and will switch back to Godmid if the DENMON wagon doesn't get enough support. I'd also like to see what Godmid's take on the last page is tbh

[Ryno56]

I've already said what I think about Godmid