Newbie 1391 - Game Over - FINALLY!!!

[Mr. Flay]

I'm on my phone right now so no big post, but I am at L-1 is that right? Somebody better have a GOOD case...

[Mr. Flay]

UNVOTE: Stubbs for great justice. My predecessor's reasons were crap.

Still rereading and still on my phone, but champoin is my first gut read for scum. Something about his D3 entrance strikes me as off.

I expect 6:1 with two Nights is a good place for a massclaim, but that's easy for me to say since Gen Wolf already claimed. If you do ends up lynching me I STRONGLY recommend doing so tomorrow.

More before midnight. Didn't realize my slot was so reviled.

[Mr. Flay]

Why not today?

Because I work all day, went to dinner, then had Games Night until just now. Looks like I won't get to this game until morning, actually.

[Mr. Flay]

So, finished my reread. My predecessor definitely had some dumb things to say (including not wanting to lynch Antagon), so if I still look like a good lynch by the end of the Day, so be it. But I think I can add value to this organization.

1. First of all,
   Nacho
   looks Town for Day One. Neither Antagon nor Nacho did anything that I would expect from bussing scum. Nothing since then strongly affects my opinion, but I hope his V/LAs get more rare from here on out, as his intermittent activity is not very helpful.
   
2. Antagon
   was simply too stupid to live so conclusions to be drawn are weak, but... aside from the Gen_Wolf_Town read he had, the only thing that sticks out to me in early Day One is his waffly love for
   Fegelein
   and Miss Stranger.
   
3. Miss Strange
   r posts a lot but generally consistent with what I would expect from newish Town. I do hope she'll stop with the grid though, it's obfuscating.
   
4. Fegelein was the first to jump to Antagon's defense when the wagon started. Oddly he gives a rundown in post 71 of everyone BUT Antagon, and votes Nacho because of (as far as I can tell) NG 1344. He reiterates his Townread on Antagon in 126. In 149 Antagon puts a pretty strong note of suspicion onto Fegelein...trying to course-correct for the defense by his buddy, maybe? I think so yes. Defends Antagon AGAIN in 219, when he's sitting at L-1. With two days left before the Day 1 deadline, Fegelein is suddenly apathetic and unable to post. Wah.
   Unfortunately he turned out to be a Townie, so nevermind.
   
5. Generic
   avoided voting or commenting on it entirely when he came in at page 2. Gets VERY defensive when Nacho start hammering on him. By post 61 he was reading Antagon as Town, but flipped near the end of Day One when he could have stayed on Nacho if he was Antagon's scumbuddy. Due to the lack of Nightkills and the strong cross-group Generic Townread I strongly suspect he's been protected by someone at least once, and therefore Town. Also I find it impossible to believe a scum would even bother posting the "is it a two man or three man team"? blunder.
   
6. Feel It
   is very keen to be seen as Town. Page 3, less than 72 hours in, he's declaring himself "one of the more involved players". Not impressed one way or another by the 'if soandso flips town' WIFOM game he's playing on pages 3 and 4. With chkflip/Fegelein dead he seems like the best candidate for scum. Self votes in 331... Wah more. His whining/analysis of the lack of Nightkills on Day Three strikes me as frustrated scum.
   
7. As I mentioned earlier,
   champinoman
   rubs me the wrong way. He doesn't seem to be reading very closely and his reads from Day One are pretty safe. However he could have pushed another direction than L-1 for Antagon in post 294. I don't see that coming from scum.
   
8. James May
   was pretty silent at first, but that seems to be from genuine lack of access/time. Starts building the Antagonwagon on page 6... then replaced by
   Stubbs
   . Stubbs removes his vote for the reread, then re-adds it when he's done. Townie Brownies. I also like his way of mentioning in 286 that people SHOULD keep James May's posts in mind when analyzing Stubbs. Scum would find it easier to ignore that or downplay any responsibility for ScumV1.0's actions.

With all of that said, I definitely feel like (heh) Feel It is the best remaining option for scumbuddy of Antagon. However I disagree with Nacho on the subject of massclaim. Another Night will probably not result in yet another No Kill, and we may lose an entire Power Role's results that way. I have Opinions about which part of the grid we're in, but I don't want to say more before we commit to the claim. If we do so, it worked well last game I played to resist popcorn and go with a Scummiest-to-Towniest massclaim. Condorcet (preferential) voting works well for this and forces everyone to take a stand on everyone else left alive, something we could also use at this point.

VOTE: Feel It

Also, the softclaiming in this game has GOT to stop, if we're not massclaiming.

[Mr. Flay]

Yeah sorry, it was late and I was trying to wrap that megapost up.

"If we go with massclaim, I suggest we avoid the popcorn method (one player claims, then picks the next person to claim, and so on) and instead claim in order of decreasing scumminess. You determine who is scummiest by having everyone list the other living players from scummiest to towniest (ties allowed), and a Condorcet matrix tells you who is the worst. Then you just go down the line from there. This avoids scum having any real control over the order, in case they want to see if X really is the JK first, etc."

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=621 shows how it worked last time - one scum came up top on the list, stalled for a bit, then claimed VT. Other scum was second on the list, in fact, which I had just noticed.

[Mr. Flay]

[SCUMMIEST]
Feel It
champinoman
Stubbs | Miss Stranger
Nachomamma
Generic
[TOWNIEST]

[Mr. Flay]

I suggest everyone who needs to should prepare their claim so that time is no excuse.

What is there to 'prepare'? You read your role PM and decide how many words need to be said (hint: it's probably a max of two).

Only scum will need time to prepare.

[Mr. Flay]

On my phone: I understand I've got a rope in my face. And we can still debate a bit about massclaim, but the lists are valuable either way and we only have 3+ days left. I do want to hear if Nacho is still opposed.

[Mr. Flay]

Feel It and Flay tie; fortunately we've both already claimed.

Spoiler: Showing my work

Code: Select all

champinoman>Flay>FeelIt>Generic>Stubbs>MissStranger>Nacho
Flay>FeelIt>champinoman>Generic>Nacho>MissStranger>Stubbs
FeelIt>Flay>Stubbs>Nacho>champinoman>Generic>MissStranger
FeelIt>champinoman>Stubbs>MissStranger>Nacho>Generic>Flay
Flay>FeelIt>Nacho>Stubbs>MissStranger>Generic>champinoman
FeelIt|Flay>Nacho>champinoman>Stubbs>Generic>MissStranger

http://www.cs.wustl.edu/~legrand/rbvote/calc.html (Dodgson method)

1. Feel It
   
2. Mr. Flay
   
3. champino
   
4. Nacho
   
5. Stubbs
   
6. Generic
   
7. Miss Stranger

[Mr. Flay]

champino what you did is more similar to Instant Runoff.

In any case, you're up; claim in your next post, please.

[Mr. Flay]

That's... an interesting idea. I can certainly see a world where scum would target Nacho twice (they would know BP is a risk), but his play has been REALLY intermittent, and avoiding a game in massclaim and deadline yesterday is not wise. He should know better.

That said, I need to think about the odds more and will post more comprehensively tonight when I am not on my phone.

[Mr. Flay]

I need to think further, but believe the plan could work. I'm not sure scumNacho would have a mathematical chance any more...

[Mr. Flay]

Note to self for postgame: tristrbtj

Nacho: why are/were you voting Feel It when you ended up ranking both champino and me higher on your Condorcet list?

[Mr. Flay]

I'm fine with going along with it as long as long as the town makes sure to lynch him on the third day if scum hasn't been found.

I can guarantee you I will be on board with that.

Here's the thing: scumNacho has No Way Out, now that he's agreed to be lynched after two tries at finding scum.

1. VRK's ruleset says that the Jailkeeper takes precedence over the Roleblocker, so he can't kill ANYBODY as long as champinoman stays on target.
   
2. So we get two free lynches, and then we kill scum. Lynched Town still win.

But if he's TownNacho, then we have two ConfTown, not just one (again, I'm assuming rational actions here, and a CC would have happened if it was needed).

1. If champino, or in fact a majority of anybody, thinks Nacho's reasoning for who to lynch is crap, we lynch him.
   
2. If Scum get impatient and kill Nacho, or champino, we abandon the plan obviously.
   
3. But given that we're at 6:1 now, even if we mislynch today and tomorrow (out of a pool of 5) and the hidden scum kills one of the ConfTown tomorrow night, we've still got 1 ConfTown and 3 unknowns. MyLo, but with the endgame players of OUR choosing, not scum's.
   
4. If the secret scum waits for us to kill TownNacho on Day 5, then we will lose champino that Night and we're at 2:1 LyLo, again with the players of our choosing. So it's probably worthwhile to do one Nacho-champino-directed lynch and re-evaluate..

So, Nacho? Choice?

[Mr. Flay]

I don't like the no lynch idea either, nothing will happen either way. if nacho is guilty nobody will be killed, and if he's innocent scum will almost certainly no kill

This. Nacho's plan allows some progress - No Lynch ends in (at best) stalemate.

That's not correct. Roleblocker takes precendence. However, if Nacho is scum then there is no roleblocker anyway so it's irrelevant.

. Not true, we could be in Column A. But under VRK's ruleset it doesn't matter.

[Mr. Flay]

We can't be in column A if Nacho is scum because nobody counter claimed bulletproof.

Ah good catch.

VRK got it 'backwards' for this game:

If the Mafia Roleblocker is blocked by a Town Jailkeeper then the Roleblocker will receive a PM stating “No Result”.

Mafia Role PM, near the bottom of that post.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm like 78% sure Feel It is the last scum.

[Mr. Flay]

^ That worked better when it was going to be posted below 574. Oops.

[Mr. Flay]

When I updated my rules set for the Matrix6 setup, I forgot to take NAR into account (which is where the rule in the wiki for Matrix6 comes from). Now that I'm thinking about it that rule is pointless, because a Roleblocker shouldn't/wouldn't get a result back stating whether his block action was successful.

I'm taking the line out from the Roleblocker sample PM. Thanks for catching it!

...uhhh, okay. Since you're confirming the ruleset, does the RB still lose ties to the JK?

Yes. According to NAR, all blocking actions take precedence over protection actions. Sorry for the confusion

-Vel

[Mr. Flay]

NACHO. we need you!

[Mr. Flay]

Flay, are you familiar with the Amished Tell?

No idea. Wiki is unhelpful, seems he always lost as scum (certainly not my problem).

[Mr. Flay]

That's a really odd tell. Who doesn't read their predecessor? And when somebody is playing THAT BADLY, it is worth commenting on.

Anyway, that's L-1. Generic?

[Mr. Flay]

If scum aren't Nacho, I don't want to give them any ideas about who to kill. Needless to say they have a target-rich environment...

[Mr. Flay]

Goddamnit Nacho, stop signing up for more games when you can't find time for the ones you're in!

[Mr. Flay]

Well then.

In answer to your rhetorical, we lose NOTHING by testing the claim for a Day or two.

[Mr. Flay]

I also helped edit the wiki page for and (vaguely) helped design the Matrix 6 setup, as well as the one before it that had a JK-RB combo in it. So I'm pretty familiar with how I thought it would work, and was surprised to see VRK's ruleset read the other way.

Mainly though I noticed because if it worked the way the wiki says, then NachoScum would NOT be stopped from killing at all, and we'd all be barking up the wrong tree. That's why I went reading the sample role PMs, which are in the first posts of every Newbie Game.

[Mr. Flay]

*scratches head* Let me try explaining that again.

I knew how it's supposed to work: RB stops JK if they target each other. So the speculation about "well Nacho is scum because there was no kill and he was JK'ed" didn't make sense, because Nacho appeared to have a pretty good idea who the JK was (see 523). If Nacho is scum, he would have broken out, more likely than not (at the time I was thinking we were probably in the Column A setup... there are reasons for a BP not to claim, after all). So I went to read the first page, just in case I was crazy... which is what led to the Note to Self in 556 ("tristrbtj" stands for "the roleblocker is supposed to resolve before the jailkeeper", from the wiki). I didn't want to give any actual Mafia Roleblockers ammunition in case they hadn't realized this yet... but eventually it came out in thread anyway.

[Mr. Flay]

No idea. I'd have preferred we got a fourth vote to analyze, but...

Really want to hear from champino.

[Mr. Flay]

Not keen, but not against. NOT liking his ignoring the thread thus far.

[Mr. Flay]

It's not obvious because if nacho is town then my ability is pointless because I'll be roleblocked.

This STILL isn't true. Jailkeep STILL overrides Roleblocker in this setup, under VRK's ruleset. Try to keep up.

Metagame, I feel like Nacho would have conceded last night if he was Mafia. But that is by no means a sure thing. I'd still prefer to lynch somebody else, decided on by champino and Nacho, today.

[Mr. Flay]

Okay, thank you!

[Mr. Flay]

So that being said, half my analysis goes out the fucking window. Nacho is either what he says he is (BP), or he's a Goon (not RB), and champino has saved us all (and we win whenever we lynch Nacho). If he's what he says he is, champino is useless. Problem is we won't know until Nacho flips...

Not sure I like Nacho floating the idea of a Generic lynch. It looks kinda like going after the guy who is AFK. Stubbs 632 is interesting but I wasn't here D1 so I don't have the same sense of the flow that you guys do. Why is it that everyone who WAS here was extending a whole plateful of Townie Brownies to Generic until very recently? I'm confused, which will be read by some as scummy I'm sure.

[Mr. Flay]

While I agree with not rushing, you're in the driver's seat here, and we've wasted four days waiting for your case...

[Mr. Flay]

Because we're essentially playing Surprise Kingmaker now? You (and to some degree, champino) are the only ones who get to decide the lynch today. Where is our incentive to participate except defensively if/when you call us out?

[Mr. Flay]

Tomorrow will either be 4 alive with me as confirmed town

Wait what? How are you confirmed if you're alive tomorrow and champino's dead?? The plan was to lynch you if you don't hit scum today.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm not so sure. If it were me I'd be targeting the JailKeeper every night that I'm still alive in the hope he tries to be too smart for his own good and jails someone else. Then once the Jailkeeper is dead you have tricked everyone else in to believing you are confTown because he was supposedly jailing you.

If you take your eye off the ball, we deserve to lose. That said, I can agree overall that Nacho is non-zero scum, but very small chance. We're lynching him anyone if it's not won today. I do like the analysis of why non-Nacho scum might target Nacho anyway (coming from anybody else it would be scummy, but you're the only confTown role we've got).

only way champino dies while i'm scum and he's targetting me is A) if i'm a roleblocker, or B) if he fails to target me.

You being RB requires some idiotic maneuver by our BP... but yeah. Fair point. I was thinking we were farther down the chain of events than we were. However I'm also distracted by the idea that it took VRK so long to come up with the resolution to the Night Actions. If there were a RB I would think he'd have had a better answer, and faster... which argues for Goon. Which is Row 1, not Column A at all. ARGH!

Anyway, Miss Stranger strikes me as newbieTown. Post #24 in particular doesn't look like something scum would say on Page One.

Generic still doesn't strike me as a good scum candidate. He could have stayed off the Antagonwagon D1, among many other things mentioned already.

Stubbs, on the other hand, replaced James May, who was Antagon's RVS vote. James May stuck Antagon right at the bottom of the Null-read section in #141, and pretty much ignored Antagon all Day. He voted him for lurking, but signaled that he would remove the vote if Antagon improved.

And yes, I realize Gen_Wolf was Antagon's sole Townread. If you must lynch me, so be it, but I think the massclaim I orchestrated argues against it. Scum had no reason to get into that behavior at this stage of the game. I do NOT like the cute little "at least James May was voting the right guy eh?" when Stubbs comes in, either. Looks like he decided his scumbuddy was sunk. Stubbs' #324 explicitly wants to dissuade speculation about why there was no NK, which is admirable from Town buuuut...

I'm drifting into confirmationbiasland right now though, so I'll stop.

[Mr. Flay]

Sonnova... added that to the wrong paragraph. That should read:

Stubbs, on the other hand, replaced James May, who was Antagon's RVS vote. James May stuck Antagon right at the bottom of the Null-read section in #141, and pretty much ignored Antagon all Day. He voted him for lurking, but signaled that he would remove the vote if Antagon improved. I do NOT like the cute little "at least James May was voting the right guy eh?" when Stubbs comes in, either. Looks like he decided his scumbuddy was sunk. Stubbs' #324 explicitly wants to dissuade speculation about why there was no NK, which is admirable from Town buuuut...

And yes, I realize Gen_Wolf was Antagon's sole Townread. If you must lynch me, so be it, but I think the massclaim I orchestrated argues against it. Scum had no reason to get into that behavior at this stage of the game.

[Mr. Flay]

Firstly, Mr. Flay, not one of your links to posts in post 664 work. 2 out of the 3 actually lead to different threads

Yeah, sorry about that. The # apparently played hell with the bbcode...

[Mr. Flay]

Last page.

Karnage replaces Ms. Stranger.

[Mr. Flay]

I have more than enough trust in Nacho's scumhunting abilities.

I have not read a scummier statement all week.

VOTE: Stubbs - let's go, Nacho.

[Mr. Flay]

Nacho is deadscum walking if he's not Town, so we might as well look elsewhere for today. But yeah, super frustrated with his lack of attention to the thread.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm pretty tired of associative tells at present, actually.

In general/meta, or in this game specifically?

Generic still doesn't strike me as a good scum candidate. He could have stayed off the Antagonwagon D1, among many other things mentioned already.

What are the other things mentioned already that you like the most?

I'll have to reread to tell you specifically, and this week is very busy. Basically it was all of the Good Guy Generic posts after D1, rolled up in a ball.

I have more than enough trust in Nacho's scumhunting abilities.

I have not read a scummier statement all week.

It's exactly the mindset I expected from him. Why is it scummy to you?

It's pure buddying. "I believe in you Nacho! You can do it Nacho! As long as you're not going to lynch me..." And he does it again in 692.

I don't think you're comprehending how DEMORALIZING it is to wait days and days for you, Nacho. Everyone's basically beholden to your decision-making, but you're not interacting, you're proclaiming from on high, every few days, and then disappearing again. There's no fucking reason this game has to take as long as it is right now...

[Mr. Flay]

Nacho dies tomorrow (or tonight, if scum want to be helpful). LyLo is the day after.

[Mr. Flay]

...no he's not?

[ongoinggames]He just asked for replacement in the last one he was in. He got replaced in this and one other already since mid-July.[/ongoinggames]

[Mr. Flay]

Generic still doesn't strike me as a good scum candidate. He could have stayed off the Antagonwagon D1, among many other things mentioned already.

I'm pretty tired of associative tells at present, actually. What are the other things mentioned already that you like the most?

Spoiler: The things that I just nodded along with during my initial read of the thread:

I liked Generic's #61. I feel those sorts of things are overkill on page 3, but my perception of him as passive, coasting scum is clearly wrong.

I think that Generic's response to pressure has been excellent; my original problem with him was that I thought he was trying to justify not providing analysis by claiming that he was afraid that everything he did would be taken as a joke and dismissed, but his recent analysis has blown that point out of the water. I also thought that his initial suspicion of me had very nice trajectory; the kneejerk response caused by OMGUS, that was slowly whittled away during the course of our exchange and ended up being leaning town, but not that town.

Generic:

almost certainly town. Consistent and insightful analysis and good reaction to pressure from Nacho. Doesn't seem to care about compressing his posts content or rewording them, which is good. Excellent response to paranoid attacks from Champ. I don't think I can find something suspicious.

Generic's post 297 is Town as hell. Just go read it.

^^^
This makes Generic incredibly, incredibly town. He didn't even give Antagon any time to pull out any counterclaims, which is the entire point of fakeclaiming a power role in the first place.

And then my own initial analysis, for a self-reminder:

Generic

avoided voting or commenting on it entirely when he came in at page 2. Gets VERY defensive when Nacho start hammering on him. By post 61 he was reading Antagon as Town, but flipped near the end of Day One when he could have stayed on Nacho if he was Antagon's scumbuddy. Due to the lack of Nightkills and the strong cross-group Generic Townread I strongly suspect he's been protected by someone at least once, and therefore Town. Also I find it impossible to believe a scum would even bother posting the "is it a two man or three man team"? blunder.

Furthermore, even the scummy-looking Town that we've mislynched have mostly called Generic Town. The ONE thing that gives me pause is that he should have been a NK target by now, but that way lies Wine In Front of Me... it's just as possible that scum believed he would be protected, and hunted elsewhere (though why they would be obsessed with Nacho is odd, if he's actually Town)

Speaking of Nacho:

1. D4 started on Jul 28, 2013 6:45 am (608).
   
2. ~108 posts have been made since then, only 10 a day or so.
   
3. ~34 from Generic.
   
4. ~19 from Stubbs.
   
5. ~17 from Flay.
   
6. ~14 from champino.
   
7. 9 from Nacho.
   
8. 6 from Karnage/Stranger.

Nacho is in the driver's seat. But he can make dozens of posts elsewhere... I'm not trying to lay the whole game on him, but I think it's very unprofessional of an IC to ignore this game if he is Town. If he's scum, of course, the reason for his apathy becomes clear...

[Mr. Flay]

3.5 days to go until deadline. Nacho may or may not be abdicating his kingship, but we should decide if our backup lynch really is Stubbs, or what. Also everybody taking stances will help if we go to LyLo.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm still fine with Generic. I think his behavior today mirrors my own, i.e frustration at the game, not at his chances as scum diminishing. *shrug*

Bydefault that would Karnage down as my second (after Nacho of course), but Miss Stranger was sort of a non-entity for non-game reasons there...

[Mr. Flay]

Bydefault that would Karnage down as my second

Wow, typing fail.

"By default, that would make put Karnage down as my second" (after Stubbs and Nacho)

[Mr. Flay]

I must point out flay is far townier than karnage in this but I cannot ignore the predecessors.

I'm not ignoring that, I just can't do anything to 'argue' against it. *shrug*

[Mr. Flay]

Also, Nacho just replaced into ANOTHER GAME. JFC.

[Mr. Flay]

Post or Perish.

UNVOTE: StubbsKVM
VOTE: Nachomamma8

[Mr. Flay]

UNVOTE: nachoslacker8

[Mr. Flay]

Will not vote Generic except to avoid a NL. Karnage can have the hammer.

(this is not scummy, because if I'm wrong, we win)

[Mr. Flay]

I don't find Generic scummy, at all. If I'm wrong, Karnage's hammer will win the game. If he won't/doesn't hammer, I will to avoid a No Lynch. If I'm right, my conscience is clean, and we lynch you tomorrow as planned.

[Mr. Flay]

I want to see nacho try and back peddle from this now.

Do you think he will backpedal?

[Mr. Flay]

Not even considering that Generic might be scum, Karnage? Why is that?

[Mr. Flay]

Or he's dead scum talking... either way Town wins. *\o/*

[Mr. Flay]

... dafuq is this game?

VOTE: Nachomamma8

[Mr. Flay]

Damnit Generic, you ruined our three-post Day.

[Mr. Flay]

UNVOTE: Nacho to talk a moment.

Now in day 6 with 4 alive we can’t lynch Nacho.

4p 3:1 is MyLo. You either have to No Lynch or flip the coin. No Lynch leads to stalemate or (if scum kill) 3p endgame like the current plan, so forget that unless I miss something.

If you flip the coin:

1. If we lynch scum, we win.
   
2. If we lynch town, someone dies overnight and it's 1:1. Scum win.

But it's not a 50% chance, because

Nacho can still be scum

. The only way this plan benefits us is... if Nacho is scum!

[Mr. Flay]

tl;dr: The point was never to get to endgame with confirmed townies. It was to leverage the CHANCE that Nacho is Town and get the optimal number of lynches out of the game, which we've done.

[Mr. Flay]

I don't understand your strategy then. I guess I'll think on it after dinner.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm not saying we are trying to get to endgame with confirmed townies, however having them increases the chance of hitting scum in the event that it is a coin flip decision.

But if we lynch Nacho today and he flips town, then day 6 (with 3p 2:1) we have a 33% chance of hitting scum.
At 4p 3:1 we have increased the odds to 50% (excluding myself and Nacho from calculations).

[*]If we lynch town, someone dies overnight and it's 1:1. Scum win.[/list]But it's not a 50% chance, because

Nacho can still be scum

. The only way this plan benefits us is... if Nacho is scum!

If the one person left other than Nacho and Myself is the last scum then there is no way we were going to win anyway. But at least this way we have given ourselves the best chance of winning.
If Nacho is scum then he dies in D7.

It's all about minimizing risks. We are gaining extra lynches whilst not losing anything. If scum has been playing us the fool by not killing at night then they have just made the game harder for themselves but giving us more opportunities.

I don't think you understand me in 784. The 'coinflip' only works if Nacho is Town. But we do not, CAN NOT know he is Town until he's dead, or you are (actually even your death won't assure it, but close enough for government work). Until then all lynches are suspect, just like usual.

[Mr. Flay]

You're not making them 'waste' anything though. The chances don't significantly change down the line... it's about 67% either way.

[Mr. Flay]

For Town I mean. working on a revision of your chart.

[Mr. Flay]

Okay so apparently I'm REALLY rusty at probability. Anyway, Branch NachoScum has a 66.6666% chance of hitting scum. Branch EndlessGame has a 74%* chance of hitting scum overall, but that first lynch has a

much

lesser chance at this point, given the gamestate.

To wit:

Why would nonNacho scum continue to No Kill last Night?

Killing champino would have netted a 4p MyLo with almostConfTownNacho, like I said earlier. We can either No Lynch, which just puts us in 3p LyLo with no confirmed Town, or take the 33% chance of hitting scum in MyLo.

Why would nonNacho scum not take those odds over a 2/3 or greater chance of autoloss, AND a continued degradation of their ability to control the game?!?

For that reason, I still think Branch 1 is the best option. It's the only thing that makes sense; NachoScum's only hope is demoralizing the Town through and endless series of bad lynches. I'll wait for someone to doublecheck my math before revoting.

[Mr. Flay]

All that and I forgot to post the image!



* The 75% becomes 74% because there's a tiny, TINY chance that scum nokills that night to force us to lynch NachoTown. In fact it's pretty much their best bet, so it's probably a greater reduction than 1%, but it's not strict probability so fuckit.

[Mr. Flay]

Can you please confirm which one 'Branch 1' is? Based on what you said I think you mean the branch that doesn't lynch Nacho, but I'm not sure.

No, I mean the leftmost branch, the one you read first...the one where we lynch Nacho today.

I know you think the extra lynch is good, and based on the graph it's slightly better.. But I don't think it's THAT much better, and it makes NO sense in the larger context of the game. Conversely it makes PERFECT sense for NachoScum.

I don't see why they'd bother. A simple night kill would win it for them.

Can't kill if you block them. Again, it's a tiny chance, but it's nonzero.

[Mr. Flay]

You're not counting enough coins. There's six coins in the Left Branch (50% Nacho is Scum, plus 1/3 for the second lynch), which gives a 3/4 chance of hitting scum. There's 24 coins in the Right Branch (8/8, 5/8, and 5/8), which gives a 3/4 chance of hitting scum, BUT you have to ignore the game history to go with that argument.

Excluding Nacho distorts the odds. If you weren't Confirmed Town, I'd be suspicious of your motives here.

[Mr. Flay]

*scratches head* If champino is a Roleblocker, I suppose we could be in Column A still, and that would make his press for Right Branch make more sense, too...

But it's getting late, and I'm getting paranoid.

[Mr. Flay]

Nevermind, I'm insane.(ly tired).

[Mr. Flay]

There's six coins in the Left Branch (50% Nacho is Scum, plus 1/3 for the second lynch), which gives a 4/6 chance of hitting scum.

Fixed.

[Mr. Flay]

I may be wrong in the probabilities, but that doesn't explain why nonScumNacho would continue to No Kill. Their chances were much better with 4p MyLo.

[Mr. Flay]

I'd vote Stubbs first, unsurprisingly. There's not enough going against Karnage/Stranger to build a good case, which is the sort of PoE clear that worries me. With Right Branch I don't have to choose though, because everybody gets lynched in the end except one, which I'm obviously hoping is me.

But I think there's a flaw in the plan.

(and yes, I'm talking about more than my shitty latenight math) According to the graph, Nacho does NOT get lynched in every scenario. Very middle of the chart, there's a Day Six 3p LyLo with Nacho as 'confirmed' Town. But if he lives that long and champino is dead, he's STILL NOT CONFIRMED. Why?

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town 1-shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

NachoScum means we're in Row1, right (otherscum means we're in ColA)? That means that after the N1 missed kill he could have been setting up a ColA claim all along... it's the exact opposite of his position on the chart (C1), and because he was blocked he knows what setup we're in. So worrying about Doctor and Tracker goes out the window... Nacho is sophisticated enough to play the long game on this. I'm not actually saying it's

likely

, but it is why he is Never Confirmed Town Until Dead.

Now, in Left Branch, we learn very quickly what the actual roles are in the game, and go into LyLo with that. Otherwise I solemnly swear that I will be unsurprised when we end up in the middle of the graph...

[Mr. Flay]

If champino dies blocking me then I am confirmed town, unless VRK is one of those mods who likes giving the scum a one-shot strongman when they haven't gotten a successful kill in a while.

Eh, I suppose you're right. And I have faith in VRK's integrity, I'm just still under some lingering confusion from that JK-RB thing.

3 lynches it is. But for the love of all that is holy, can you two put the pedal down this time? I'm going on vacation for 10 days in less than a week, and would at least like to be done with D5 by then...

[Mr. Flay]

Pre post #817 I was wanting a Stubbs lynch.
Now I want a Flay lynch.

Why? Because I post stupid things when tired?

Nothing I said is scummy, just dumb logic.

[Mr. Flay]

So your entire argument boils down to an hour or two of bad math. Got it.

Also, you are COMPLETELY ignoring my question about why nonNacho Scum would let the game get to its current state. That is the 'gamestate' factor that you are completely ignoring in your quest to make this a probability game. It's not. It's a logic game and the course of action that leads to nonNacho scum makes NO SENSE.

So yes, lynch me, lynch somebody, then lynch Nacho. I'm confident I'll be right in the end, and if not, hey, I still have a 74% chance of winning!

[Mr. Flay]

- What’s wrong with a 3p LyLo including a confirmed townie? Seems better than a 3p LyLo with no confirmed townies to me.

Why would scum POSSIBLY give you that chance?? All you've done is give them a roadmap for how to win with your graph?

[Mr. Flay]

So what’s your argument again?

In case you haven't noticed, no argument. I'm down with the Right Branch method. I just think two of the lynches will be unnecessary, is all.

[Mr. Flay]

I admit I'm partially frustrated because I didn't expect this game to go on 3-4 months...

[Mr. Flay]

I don't understand the question?

The plan makes some mathematical sense, but I think it is short-sighted and unnecessary in the context of the larger game. But since the only real loss is time, I'm not going to rail against it took hard.

[Mr. Flay]

"too hard." Stupid phone.

[Mr. Flay]

I don't know who I think is scum at the moment.

This has been the pattern since you asked for control of the lynch. It's incredibly scummy from my perspective, seeing what it's done to the morale of the game.

[Mr. Flay]

But I fear that he is just an excellent player and has the ability to come back from the position he was in.

This is so common it has a 'name': "Lynch Flay Just In Case". All you're doing is saying you have no refutation, but I MIGHT be scum. Which, while true from your perspective, is utterly useless information.

Why is Karnage/Stranger such a strong townread for you? For me it's closer to null... they say nothing egregiously wrong, but nothing super amazingly town, either.

[Mr. Flay]

It's kind of moot with you two driving the bus.

[Mr. Flay]

It's irrelevant whether or not these initial votes lead to a majority. We need to see where everyone sits so that it doesn't become a last minute panic to get someone lynched.

We know who my choice would be - I've already said, in 817. Voting does NOTHING until you two make a choice, and it's not like anyone in this game is going to quicklynch with 5 alive. Just look at yesterday... there was a solid building wagon on Nacho for inactivity, and when he came in, everyone fell in line.

[Mr. Flay]

*shrug* That's not what I said at all. I said NO ONE is going to quicklynch, on anybody, in this fucking game. One living scum is not going to quicklynch anyway.

So say that I VOTE: StubbsKVM. What changes? I've said three or four times he's my first pick for non-Nacho scum. No one else is voting him. What have you learned??

I don't mind voting him, but I don't see what it accomplishes at this point in time.

[Mr. Flay]

Huh? I don't know what that means, but champino is still conf town. Why would I trust anybody else? I've made my case, and seen nothing from Stubbs to make me want to change my mind since.

[Mr. Flay]

Wait, you're against the three lynch model?

[Mr. Flay]

Better than your chances as scum, though fairly unsporting.

[Mr. Flay]

*sigh* Go back and read the argument between champino and I about it. Then tell us why you're still in favor.

[Mr. Flay]

Still waiting for Karnage.

In fact, that comment is enough to switch my order for today/tomorrow.

UNVOTE: Stubbs

VOTE: Karnage

[Mr. Flay]

If I were in the game, Id have wanted to scrap the plans/models and just lynch Nacho

If you'll notice, we tried that several times. EVERY TIME it garnered accusations of being scum.

I maintain that the sportsmanlike thing for Nacho to do would have been to concede post-massclaim. Yes there was some minor chance champino would flake or miss his choice, but instead we got MONTHS of pointless discussion, apathy, and non-Mafia-related arguing. And while it was good WIFOM to make me think he was Town trying to salvage the game, it was never enough WIFOM to make me not lynch him in the end. Several people said that, enough to have majority every single Day. So why not concede?

Also your slow play and JOINING OTHER GAMES WHILE IGNORING THIS ONE made me furious.

Also also, what was up with the first two missed kills by scum?

[Mr. Flay]

That's the weird thing. The whole game came down to what happened D1+N1.