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Post Post #6 (isolation #0) » Tue May 25, 2021 8:22 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Hello friends (and MixLixWix)

VOTE: zyla

Spoiler:
Not sure if I should be sorry my name did have pun potential, or offended you did not vote for someone who did not have the curtesy of having a pun-able username
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Post Post #10 (isolation #1) » Wed May 26, 2021 3:24 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Kind of expected the thread to take off without me while I was asleep, but looks like everyone decided to wait for me <3
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Post Post #11 (isolation #2) » Wed May 26, 2021 3:26 am

Post by Lukewarm »

@wayward son

You should get a profile pic so that it is easier for everyone to tell your posts apart from T3 posts.

Same to anyone else who has not posted yet, if you don't have one, get one :)
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Post Post #13 (isolation #3) » Wed May 26, 2021 3:33 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 9, Wayward Son wrote:VOTE: Egix96

In Newbie 2060 you were confirmed Town. I'm not convinced that's the case this time around... Yet.
Actually, this is interesting. I was in 2060 with Egix, and you were not there. What drew you into reading that game?
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Post Post #15 (isolation #4) » Wed May 26, 2021 4:25 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 14, MixLixWix wrote:
In post 6, Lukewarm wrote:Hello friends (and MixLixWix)

VOTE: zyla

Spoiler:
Not sure if I should be sorry my name did have pun potential, or offended you did not vote for someone who did not have the curtesy of having a pun-able username
Well I didn't want to pun-name shame anybody. Then they would be even more
lukewarm
about it.
that pun... oof.

Please feel free to share any puns you came up with before you gave up on doing the whole player list

:lol: :lol:
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Post Post #24 (isolation #5) » Wed May 26, 2021 6:25 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 21, T3 wrote:
In post 11, Lukewarm wrote:@wayward son

You should get a profile pic so that it is easier for everyone to tell your posts apart from T3 posts.

Same to anyone else who has not posted yet, if you don't have one, get one :)
denied
I did not even ask you to get one, because I already knew your answer
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Post Post #26 (isolation #6) » Wed May 26, 2021 6:28 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 17, Wayward Son wrote: Egix was in it, and I wanted a baseline meta read. You being in it was an added plus.
Is this your first game?

I never thought about meta reads until after I saw other people doing it tbh.
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Post Post #27 (isolation #7) » Wed May 26, 2021 6:41 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 23, Zyla wrote:
In post 22, Wayward Son wrote: Not that I can prove it but I've never RVSed a scum buddy.
That definitely varies from person to person though, I knew a couple of people irl who would always vote for their scum partner day 1

Granted, they weren't very
good
at the game, but that's just because they were predictable, so it's better to switch it up
VOTE: Wayward Son
I cannot articulate why, but this post feels off to me
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Post Post #29 (isolation #8) » Wed May 26, 2021 7:02 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 28, MixLixWix wrote:
In post 27, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 23, Zyla wrote:
In post 22, Wayward Son wrote: Not that I can prove it but I've never RVSed a scum buddy.
That definitely varies from person to person though, I knew a couple of people irl who would always vote for their scum partner day 1

Granted, they weren't very
good
at the game, but that's just because they were predictable, so it's better to switch it up
VOTE: Wayward Son
I cannot articulate why, but this post feels off to me
Let's try. Is it the entire post or one section of it?
I think it is that she did not really address any thoughts about reading him, but then still dropped a vote. Like, if she thinks he is scummy, I would have expected that in the post.
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Post Post #30 (isolation #9) » Wed May 26, 2021 7:04 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 29, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 28, MixLixWix wrote:
In post 27, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 23, Zyla wrote:
In post 22, Wayward Son wrote: Not that I can prove it but I've never RVSed a scum buddy.
That definitely varies from person to person though, I knew a couple of people irl who would always vote for their scum partner day 1

Granted, they weren't very
good
at the game, but that's just because they were predictable, so it's better to switch it up
VOTE: Wayward Son
I cannot articulate why, but this post feels off to me
Let's try. Is it the entire post or one section of it?
I think it is that she did not really address any thoughts about reading him, but then still dropped a vote. Like, if she thinks he is scummy, I would have expected that in the post.
I guess, unless that was supposed to be a RVS vote?

But because she quoted him, and responded to a conversation about him, it did not feel like that to me.

It is walking a weird line between not looking like a RVS vote, but also not looking like a proper FoS vote.
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Post Post #40 (isolation #10) » Wed May 26, 2021 9:58 am

Post by Lukewarm »

VOTE: T3

This is based purely off of Meta, but I am like 75% sure T3 is scum this game :lol:
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Post Post #44 (isolation #11) » Wed May 26, 2021 10:21 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 37, T3 wrote:Bulge, what particularly stuck out to you about that? What stuck out to me was mostly that it was a brand newbie supposedly having read a bunch of games. This reads to me as if almost fake helpful and as if it was fed by a scumpartner.
Town T3 quite simply does not make this post imo.

Town T3 spends the first half of Day 1 posting vague reads. Like look at the first 4 posts in his iso in every one of the town games I have seen him in:

Spoiler:
1
2
3

These are the ones where he started Day 1, I have played a few games with him where he replaced in, and even in those he is the same way, but I just linked the most similar situations


Now compare that to scum T3

Spoiler:
In post 22, T3 wrote:From my experience early gutreads tend to be from town. Also, this seems to be his first game in a number of years and not what I would expect from a brand newbie.
Demainer's entrance feels very forced, and nothing like 2060 where he came into the game cheerfully, scumread some people. Here he just votes Ivy (in an apparently serious vote) and says he somehow knows she is scum.
VOTE: Demainer


Town T3, shows up, reads the thread, and keeps the thread up to date with his current reads without engaging with those reads a ton. He is much more of a passive player quietly trying to solve by himself.

Scum T3 writes a full length post trying to help a scum read float towards an elimination.
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Post Post #47 (isolation #12) » Wed May 26, 2021 11:03 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 46, T3 wrote:
In post 44, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 37, T3 wrote:Bulge, what particularly stuck out to you about that? What stuck out to me was mostly that it was a brand newbie supposedly having read a bunch of games. This reads to me as if almost fake helpful and as if it was fed by a scumpartner.
Town T3 quite simply does not make this post imo.

Town T3 spends the first half of Day 1 posting vague reads. Like look at the first 4 posts in his iso in every one of the town games I have seen him in:
{snip}

Now compare that to scum T3
{snip}

Town T3, shows up, reads the thread, and keeps the thread up to date with his current reads without engaging with those reads a ton. He is much more of a passive player quietly trying to solve by himself.

Scum T3 writes a full length post trying to help a scum read float towards an elimination.
I think that's fair, but you should also note that the Demainer vote was a bus. So your theory only works if I'm scum with Wayward.
Possibly. My verdict is still out on Wayward. I really need to see more from him tbh

But I am not 100% sure that it being a bus is required. I was mainly looking at the first time you made a post with both the purpose and the length of

For example 1, it was post 266. Example 2, it was post 399. Example 3, it was post 367.

But in your scum game it was post 22.

So my conclusion is that you approach your scum games with an agenda that is simply not there in your town games, and that shows in how you post.

I am pretty sure that you are the person I have played the most games with on this site, so I would hope I am getting at least a little bit of a meta sense for you. Although I am not sure how to go about pushing a meta read tbh...

So I think I am going to leave my vote on you. I have put all of the meta out here for other people to look at and draw their own conclusions.
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Post Post #48 (isolation #13) » Wed May 26, 2021 11:07 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 46, T3 wrote:I think that's fair, but you should also note that the Demainer vote was a bus. So your theory only works if I'm scum with Wayward.
This is also a
weird
defense imo.

Like, "the thing you are scum reading me for makes sense, but lets flip Wayward first"

If you are Town, and think that Wayward is scum, then this is a terrible defense. You are basically setting yourself up for a miselim Day 2 after a scum flip from Wayward.

But if you are Scum, and you know that Wayward is town, then this is position makes more sense. Flip him first, and use that to dismiss my meta case against you all in one go.
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Post Post #60 (isolation #14) » Wed May 26, 2021 1:15 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 59, Zyla wrote:
In post 57, Wayward Son wrote:
In post 56, Zyla wrote:As for the T3 stuff, I honestly don't know. As far as I can tell, t3 doesn't really have a list of games they participated in, and I don't have enough information to tell whether Luke picked a random bunch of games, random games that happen to show t3 in a negative light, or what
This sounds like you're scum reading Luke? It doesn't fit with the first half of the post.
I mostly just mean that I'm not sure if that's enough to say that t3's scum, since there's a chance that the games picked weren't quite accurate
You are welcome to look at their meta for yourself if you don't want to trust me on it.

If you click their name, it will take you to their profile. From there, hit "view their topics" and it will take you to a list of all of the threads that T3 has been a part of. You might have to sort through a bit because you can see things like sign-up queues and dead threads.

Although, T3 almost confirmed by meta analysis on them in post . When he looked at how I described his town games vs his scum games, his response was "that's fair" not "you cherry picked those games, that is not always how I play"
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Post Post #62 (isolation #15) » Wed May 26, 2021 1:27 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 60, Lukewarm wrote:Although, T3 almost confirmed by meta analysis on them in post 46. When he looked at how I described his town games vs his scum games, his response was "that's fair" not "you cherry picked those games, that is not always how I play"
Which is why his full response has me really confused. Saying "your meta analysis on me is fair, but you should also think that Wayward Son is scum" is wild. Like the more I think about it the stranger it is tbh. He never says I am wrong in my analysis. He never even says he is not scum. He agrees with my analysis, but then says "your theory only works if I'm scum with Wayward."

Which is a strange connection for a town player to draw between themselves and someone they are scum reading. If he thinks Wayward Son could be scum, then he should know that that is setting himself up to be miselimed Day 2 if Wayward Son does get flipped scum today.

But on the otherhand, if T3 IS scum, then he may know for a fact that Wayward Son is town, and therefore he knows that it is safe to tie his alignment to theirs.

It is a common scum tactic to try and pair either themselves or their partners with a town player. That way, if they town player flips first, it can soft clears the scum player, or on the other hand, if the scum player flips first, it can net the scum team a miselim the next day, helping their partner still secure a victory.
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Post Post #64 (isolation #16) » Wed May 26, 2021 1:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

An aside, I am very much not used to being the number 1 poster in a game :dead:

In general, more posts from each player is better for town*, even if you are not confident in your reads, even if your reads end up being wrong. Putting it out there lets everyone else see what kinds of things catch your eye, look at how you are thinking about the game, and generally makes it easier for us all to sort you. Plus, it will give people things that they can discuss with you, and maybe you will point out something other people over looked.

Also, the more town players post, the more scum players have to post in order to blend in, making it more likely for them to slip up somewhere.

So please, feel free to respond to any post that gives you pause. Or just put thoughts out there on any player / conversation.

Spoiler:
*to a point. There can reach a point where someone is posting so much that it is clogging up the thread, but we do not appear to be in danger of that happening lol
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Post Post #66 (isolation #17) » Wed May 26, 2021 2:14 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 65, MixLixWix wrote:
In post 58, Xlos wrote:Alright, I have collected two weak pieces of evidence for the Zyla/Wayward Son scumteam.
First is the obvious
In post 23, Zyla wrote:
In post 22, Wayward Son wrote: Not that I can prove it but I've never RVSed a scum buddy.
That definitely varies from person to person though, I knew a couple of people irl who would always vote for their scum partner day 1

Granted, they weren't very
good
at the game, but that's just because they were predictable, so it's better to switch it up
VOTE: Wayward Son
Second is the claim here
In post 41, Zyla wrote:
In post 38, The Bulge wrote:tbh I probably would have ignored if it weren't for the "...yet" bit lol

their reaction to my vote is extremely newbscum too. and their whole attitude since then almost gives off an air of "oh yea? well you can't
prove
I'm scum" and it reeks.

I didn't think much of the pre-game meta homework but I'd buy that it was fed from a more experienced. scumpartner.
Honestly, while that is a possibility, there's also the fact that that are 2 possible role-sets that include masons, so it could be a townpartner as well
which is defending Wayward Son by bringing up an unlikely possibility (since he is the one reacting to the post of The Bulge).

Altogether not too convincing, but I'm going to keep my vote where it is.
Why in your words is wayward son scummy though? You haven't brought up wayward independently in the thread prior to this which irks me.
Xlos's entire iso feels strange, especially when I saw that they have been on site since 2019 and did not appear to realize that RVS voting is a thing. But I checked, and this is actually their first game on site.

Which, for me, puts them into the same category as Wayward Son - the "I need to hear more from you so I can tell if your posts sound off because you are scum or just because you are new"
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Post Post #67 (isolation #18) » Wed May 26, 2021 2:22 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 55, Wayward Son wrote:
In post 37, T3 wrote:Bulge, what particularly stuck out to you about that? What stuck out to me was mostly that it was a brand newbie supposedly having read a bunch of games. This reads to me as if almost fake helpful and as if it was fed by a scumpartner.
In the queue I made it clear that I wasn't "a brand newbie", and was reading games. I urge everyone to give it a look.

Of all my accusers, this looks the worst.

VOTE: t3
Also, I followed up on this, and he really did say in the sign-up thread that he was reading through games before the sign-up list was even filled, much less role PMs going out.
In post 6163, Wayward Son wrote:I'm currently reading games from the beginning
So he had like 3+ days of reading time between posting that and the game starting.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #19) » Wed May 26, 2021 2:44 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Very much like post .

Mix is both putting a lot of their own thoughts into the thread, and has repeatedly tried to draw content out from other players (25 / 28 / 31 / 42 / 53).
Spoiler:
Mix, if you are scum, go ahead and consider me pocketed.
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Post Post #70 (isolation #20) » Wed May 26, 2021 2:48 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I am a bit wary that you appear to have discounted so many of the people that have not posted very much yet tho. Like, Egix, The Bulge, and [the Opposite slot] are all still sitting in null for me.
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Post Post #84 (isolation #21) » Wed May 26, 2021 6:00 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 50, Xlos wrote:
In post 33, Zyla wrote:I'll be honest, I wasn't even thinking about the fact that I was responding to the person I was voting, I just used a random picker and got Wayward's name
Random is a lame reason to vote for someone IMO. It doesn't really encourage any discussion or have inspire any fear of being lynched. Even the first post of the thread had a reason to vote for someone! So that's my reason to VOTE: Zyla
In post 74, The Bulge wrote:
Lukewarm
two of the games you linked in are ongoing. please do not link to or discuss ongoing games in any capacity. this is an extremely essential rule of the site.
Oh. I'm sorry, I saw T3's alignment flip in each and I went with it. Because all I was looking for was his flip, I did not even think about whether they had concluded or not. My apologies.
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Post Post #85 (isolation #22) » Wed May 26, 2021 6:01 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Opps. Ignore the Q+ mistake
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Post Post #88 (isolation #23) » Wed May 26, 2021 6:02 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 75, The Bulge wrote:
In post 74, The Bulge wrote:
Lukewarm
two of the games you linked in are ongoing. please do not link to or discuss ongoing games in any capacity. this is an extremely essential rule of the site.
pagetopping this so it doesn't get glossed over and because the discussion goes on longer than I thought lol
I am sure that the meta stands without the ongoing games, and if anyone wants they can dig into his other concluded games.

Again, apologies for the mistake :oops: :oops:
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Post Post #109 (isolation #24) » Thu May 27, 2021 4:57 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Hero solve [T3 + Roden]
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Post Post #116 (isolation #25) » Thu May 27, 2021 5:52 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Roden, did you have any thoughts about my Meta case against T3?
Spoiler:
(Don't mention my first 2 links, but the 3rd town game and the scum game are both legal, plus my summary of his town game vs scum game from my experience).


OR about The Buldge's contribution
In post 81, The Bulge wrote:If you'd like some legal meta, I just modded a large normal where scumT3 laid down some incredibly bizarre distancing tactics D1 before being eliminated that ultimately factored into his team's win. giving me similar vibes here.
OR about T3's "rebuttal" to the meta case?
In post 46, T3 wrote:I think that's fair, but you should also note that the Demainer vote was a bus. So your theory only works if I'm scum with Wayward.
I find it strange that you read this thread, and did not have a single thought about it (agree or disagree) given how many people have chimed into this conversation. And you instead hand waved that all as "Just analyzing RVS votes"
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Post Post #118 (isolation #26) » Thu May 27, 2021 6:50 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 117, Egix96 wrote:UNVOTE:

VOTE: T3
Just so everyone knows, that puts T3 at e-1

So be aware, that if anyone else votes him here, it would be a hammer.
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Post Post #122 (isolation #27) » Thu May 27, 2021 9:43 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 110, T3 wrote:Wayward is lean town.
I like Roden's analysis
.
In post 121, T3 wrote:
In post 105, Roden wrote:
In post 50, Xlos wrote:
In post 33, Zyla wrote:I'll be honest, I wasn't even thinking about the fact that I was responding to the person I was voting, I just used a random picker and got Wayward's name
Random is a lame reason to vote for someone IMO. It doesn't really encourage any discussion or have inspire any fear of being lynched. Even the first post of the thread had a reason to vote for someone! So that's my reason to VOTE: Zyla
I'll start off by saying this is such a weird take. Zyla's vote was during RVS, why shouldn't it be random? If anything, trying to give a legitimate reason for votes during RVS feels a bit scummy.

Though I'll admit I don't have a read on Zyla yet. I kinda get the feeling they're an experienced newbie, since their posts feel a little controlled/revised and they're mentioning some outside experience. I'll say they're townleaning for now because of a hunch.

Next, I'm seeing a
lot
of pressure on Wayward for very little reason. I thought at first people were just testing for reactions, but it feels like way too many people are looking too deeply into a couple fluffy posts of theirs. They of course could still be scum but it feels more likely actual scum are putting early pressure on them. Maybe to make them dig their own grave? The more they talk the worse it does look for them, but nothing they're posting reads as particularly scummy.

T3's giving me weird vibes. Only five posts so far (at the time of writing this), the first few posts had literally no content, and anything with content just reads as...well, not scummish but definitely not town.
In post 20, T3 wrote:What if the scumteam is just wayward and egix and we don't even have to think about anything at all this game. That would be fun :)
This especially just weirds me out. Why make this post during RVS but then not actually vote? It feels low key manipulative and helped jump start the current Wayward wagon. Though him reaching E-2 so quickly also kind of worries me. If anyone puts him at E-1, they need to get looked at.

Lukewarm reads as helpful, but I wouldn't say he's done anything to deserve a town read tbh. Anybody can analyze RVS phase posts and look good, there's literally zero danger to it. But at the same time, he's not really setting off any scum vibes. We've seen a lot from him but I feel like I need more that isn't just him analyzing everyone's RVS posts.

Mix gives me similar vibes. Though I'm noticing they also both seemed to buddy up almost immediately. Have you two played together before?

The Bulge reads pretty heavily town. I mainly just like his posting patterns, and him zeroing in on Wayward, even though I disagree with the suspicion itself, reads as genuine. He's putting pressure but letting others react instead of building a case himself.

Absolutely no read on Egix yet, he hasn't posted much or given anyone anything to work with yet. I'd like to see some opinions from him on the current votes and ask if he has any reads.
I don't like this post. Lean scum
.
Uhhhhhhh
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Post Post #129 (isolation #28) » Thu May 27, 2021 11:40 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 126, Roden wrote:
In post 109, Lukewarm wrote:Hero solve [T3 + Roden]
This is either a lazy hero solve or a reactionary one. Either way it's teetering on OMGUS. Which townreads a little bit better.
To be fair, my scum read on you is mild, but it has nothing to do with the vote on me, and everything to do with not liking post .
In post 126, Roden wrote: I don't really disagree with the meta sus and I think T3's defense is pretty awful. But a few days ago I also fully read the game the two of you were in (completely by chance btw, I just chose a recently finished newbie game so I could see how they play out), and T3 got scum read hard there but turned out to be town. You also ended up aligning yourself with both scum, and scum read the most obvious town player in the game.

Point being, idk how much credit to give your meta sus. I'd rather trust my own scum read of T3.
This is fair. Although, this was, I believe my first game with T3, and we have been in like 5 games together since then. I think I am getting a better feel for him. T3 often gets scum because of the normal way he posts as town. If anything, stood out for not being a lim-bait post :lol:

At this point, I am fairly confident on the T3 scum read. Post 20 piqued my interest, then the meta stuff about 37 made it enough for me to bring up and pressure him for, but his response in is what has really gotten me to the point of confidence. I just do not see that response to a meta read coming from a Town mindset.

So, like I am glad that I pushed him over the meta stuff, but it is post 46 that I think is where people should look to decide if they want him to be the elim for today. I personally think it is pretty damning.

my best guess about his swap on his reads for me, you, and wayward son are just him trying to leave confusion on who he could be paired with once he flips.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #29) » Thu May 27, 2021 1:43 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 134, The Bulge wrote:
In post 130, Xlos wrote:I'd rather have another candidate so we can get more controversial choice, otherwise mafia will just kill lukewarm the next day and we haven't learned anything.
are you assuming that t3 is mafia and lukewarm is town here? if so then why would you not want t3 to be today's elimination?
I
think
he is saying that T3 is scum and I am town, but wants all to keep talking and trying to find a counter wagon so that the mafia will have a harder choice with their night kill? Honestly, the whole post from Xlos makes my head hurt
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Post Post #136 (isolation #30) » Thu May 27, 2021 1:48 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 130, Xlos wrote:I think I've been posting fairly suspiciously but I haven't had that much suspicion fall on me yet
I think you have had like 4 total posts before this. And I have looked at them with a bit of suspicion, which is why I had you the category of
In post 66, Lukewarm wrote:"I need to hear more from you so I can tell if your posts sound off because you are scum or just because you are new"
Are you saying that you have been purposefully suspicious in order to gauge how town reacted to you? wtf?

Your whole post just now gives me a headache.
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Post Post #137 (isolation #31) » Thu May 27, 2021 1:48 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 130, Xlos wrote:Xlos mafia => Mix mafia
I'm not telling how I know this.
Well, if it is true, I don't think you need to tell us how you know it :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Post Post #138 (isolation #32) » Thu May 27, 2021 1:56 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 130, Xlos wrote:Lukewarm (I get confused when people shorten it to Luke)
...
Mix hasn't talked too much since the start of the day
How are you gonna be confused by people shortening Lukewarm -> Luke, but also feel comfortable shortening MixLixWix-> Mix lmao

Spoiler:
unless you are also named Luke, so you think people might be talking about you :o
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Post Post #142 (isolation #33) » Thu May 27, 2021 6:39 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 139, Roden wrote:Btw, what didn't you like about post 105? I'm curious since the only other person who didn't seem to like it was your scum read.
It felt very precise. Not sure if that is the right word, but I could see every single line of it being specially chosen to further a scum narrative.
  • Lightly defend two people who have come under fire (zyla / Wayward Son) to get them on your side, without actually committing to a read on them.

    Give a stance on T3 that neither furthers the push on them or comes across as defending them - more of a "if they sink, they sink" kind of thing. Like what does "just reads as...well, not scummish but definitely not town" even mean ??

    Then hand wave all of mine and Mix's content as just analyzing RVS in order to murky the thread's perception of us to stop two townies from getting hard TRs too early.
Quite honestly, that post felt like exactly the kind of post I would have made if I was scum walking into that slot given this game state. - So basically, I could picture scum me writing that exact post, so it set off some alarm bells.

But, like I said, it is a weak scum lean on you, and the rest of your posts don't necessarily give me that same vibe, so currently reevaluating
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Post Post #143 (isolation #34) » Thu May 27, 2021 6:55 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

As an aside, looking back at where you mentioned him in 105 reminded me of my own thoughts on Wayward Son.

He mentioned posting in the newbie queue about read up on games, and I followed up on it. The posts are are indeed there, and seeing his tone, he was obviously excited to get into his first game. So after following up in that thread, it put me with Wayward Son as probably just new-excited-town instead of scummy for their entrance.

Him throwing out so many TRs in post 124 also helps build that read on him imo. Like I think new scum would be more hesitant with those in case they needed to push any of those people out.

That being said, he is still pretty low in content, so I cant really put give him more then a light town lean.
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Post Post #152 (isolation #35) » Fri May 28, 2021 6:28 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 146, Roden wrote:UNVOTE:

General question for everyone. What's usually worth looking more into? An E-2 vote or an E-1 vote?

And since I want to put my vote somewhere else, VOTE: Egix96
I think depends on how T3 flips.

Before Zyla voted, there was basically 1 person vocally pushing on him (me) and 1 person who was arguable trying to shift the focus off of himself (Wayward Son). Zyla hitched herself to that, putting him at e-2 and making it properly a wagon. That seems too early to bus, but about the right time for scum to join a wagon on a townie. So I think her slot will get some townie points if T3 does flip scum, but both me and Zyla will look pretty bad if he flips town.

Egix putting him at e-1 I think is equally likely from either alignment. I can easily see town!egix having a scum read on T3 by that point, but it also comes about the time that T3 starts changing around his reads, so maybe around the time the scum team decided that T3 was a sinking ship.

So overall, I think I want to look at the Zyla slot after a T3 flip, but I am not sure that the Egix vote helps me sort him.
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Post Post #165 (isolation #36) » Fri May 28, 2021 12:01 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 164, Zyla wrote:
In post 162, MixLixWix wrote: Well I would like to here that. What do you think it is?
If I'm correct about it, it would probably not be best for me to explain, at least on the first day
I don't think this is a productive conversation. If it was a joke, it does not help us, if it was not a joke, then it is best not to spell it out Day 1.

So maybe we should all assume it is a joke, and move for the day :dead:
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Post Post #169 (isolation #37) » Fri May 28, 2021 1:14 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 168, MixLixWix wrote:I was going to ask Roden, but since others are hinting at it, there seem to be a decent chunk of people who indicate that they are waiting for later phases to reveal things. I really don't know how to progress things with that. I guess what I am trying to ask is what are your guy's goal prior to flipping T3 for day 1? I would like not to kill motivation to play and do not want to drag things out if others don't want to?

This isn't meant to be mean or what not btw, I genuinely don't know what to type after staring at the screen for a bit.
Basically, I am trying to get a read on the other players, while basically asking myself "who is T3's partner if he flips scum" and "who do I most suspect if he flips town"
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Post Post #170 (isolation #38) » Fri May 28, 2021 1:17 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I think I personally have exhausted my questions for the time being tho
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Post Post #171 (isolation #39) » Fri May 28, 2021 1:19 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

My biggest question mark is on Egix atm, but it is more of a "I wish he had more content" and less of any specific questions for him.
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Post Post #175 (isolation #40) » Fri May 28, 2021 2:28 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Should we get T3 to go ahead and claim? That at least has potential to spice things up lol
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Post Post #177 (isolation #41) » Fri May 28, 2021 2:51 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 176, Zyla wrote:Lol, it would definitely be interesting to see what he'd choose
It might be boring if he goes with Vanilla Townie tho :oops:

I do feel like the thread is dying down, so if someone objects they need to come liven up the thread some.
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Post Post #178 (isolation #42) » Fri May 28, 2021 2:52 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I am not used to being the top poster, I don't know how to to lead the town, so I really need somebody to come be more active then me. Pretty please
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Post Post #180 (isolation #43) » Fri May 28, 2021 3:08 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 179, MixLixWix wrote:
In post 172, Roden wrote:There is another potential but unlikely T3 partner. Does anyone think Wayward vs T3 could've just been scum vs scum?
What comes off to you as mafia vs mafia?

I don't think wayward/T3 are scum together for the fact that I don't really see him urgent to line up someone to eliminate after T3 is voted out. The closest he has gotten is saying Zyla/you are suspects, but neither read is deeply formulated.
I don't really see them as a potential scum team tbh.
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Post Post #184 (isolation #44) » Fri May 28, 2021 3:36 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Welp. A VT claim means the wagon should go through.
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Post Post #187 (isolation #45) » Fri May 28, 2021 3:44 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 186, T3 wrote:fwiw Xlos and Zyla slipped as masons. Don't trust any prs claims.
What an anti-town post to make. If it is true, then at least one of them will be alive tomorrow to claim it themselves.
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Post Post #189 (isolation #46) » Fri May 28, 2021 3:45 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 187, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 186, T3 wrote:fwiw Xlos and Zyla slipped as masons. Don't trust any prs claims.
What an anti-town post to make. If it is true, then at least one of them will be alive tomorrow to claim it themselves.
Like if you really are town, all this post would do is put a target on them for the night kill. :facepalm: :facepalm:

So I am going to assume that you are actually just scum claiming at this point, and just trying to leave confusion behind you
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Post Post #191 (isolation #47) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:04 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 190, T3 wrote:I'm town.
I will say that your posting style has reverted back to normal lol

But if you really are town, you have been wild this game. Posting strangely, your "rebuttal" of my meta read was... interesting. And then you did not come back with any form of defense until after you were put to e-1...

If I am wrong about you, I will feel bad because I like playing games with you.... but I still don't think I am wrong :/

If you are town, feel free to leave any other reads you want in the thread, I promise to look back at your iso after your flip

Spoiler:
regardless of your alignment tbh
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Post Post #193 (isolation #48) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:14 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Just, by the way, I think that we should hammer soonish
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Post Post #199 (isolation #49) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:27 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 198, T3 wrote:Shit.

It seems you have just eliminated your friendly neighbor.
You already claimed VT lmao
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Post Post #203 (isolation #50) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:31 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

:(

I am sorry I caught you so quick.

And post 37 was honestly a really good post coming from scum. Like really well crafted. It just is not how you post as town :(
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Post Post #204 (isolation #51) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:33 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 203, Lukewarm wrote::(

I am sorry I caught you so quick.

And post 37 was honestly a really good post coming from scum. Like really well crafted. It just is not how you post as town :(
If it were not for meta, I never would have scum read you for it. It was good.

You just gotta either try and post more that way as town OR you gotta post your normal way as scum
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Post Post #205 (isolation #52) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:56 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I currently have Egix and Roden as my top choices for T3's partners.

I don't think T3 is partnered with WWS.

I dont think scum!Zyla would have brought up 160. Scum would have just brought it up in scum chat imo.
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Post Post #207 (isolation #53) » Fri May 28, 2021 5:04 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 206, Roden wrote:After all that and you
still
think T3 was covering for an active player over a passive/coasting one?
I have Egix as one of my to choices based on the possibility for T3covering for a passive player.

But I also think that you have played your slot about how I would have I had to took over that slot after my scum partner was already sinking pretty hard. So yeah, I still have you as a possibility, and do not want town to townbin you automatically if I die tonight.
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Post Post #208 (isolation #54) » Fri May 28, 2021 5:07 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Sorry for typos, not taking the time to fix because thread could lock at any time :dead:
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Post Post #210 (isolation #55) » Fri May 28, 2021 5:22 pm

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In post 209, Roden wrote:Egix please just NK me so we don't have to take this to Day 3.
I am quite surprised by your reaction to this seeing as how I said my top choices were "egix and roden" meaning egix could totally die first :)
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Post Post #211 (isolation #56) » Fri May 28, 2021 5:24 pm

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I am not actually ready to commit to who I would vote tomorrow. The NK can affect my reads. I mainly put it out there just in case I die, so that town will keep an eye on you after I am gone
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Post Post #213 (isolation #57) » Fri May 28, 2021 5:50 pm

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In post 212, Roden wrote:Because this is a solved game and I can't join another until Egix goes. This is only my first game.

Also, you're not dying. Scum has to go after potential Masons even if it's just bait. Most likely Mix over Xlos since Mix scum read me. That'll be Egix's/your argument for why Mix is chosen at least.
Yeah, I assumed they would go after the masons, and did not plan on leaving my "in case I die post", but then T3 threw the mason info into the thread, and that made me consider the possibility of them leaving them alive for weird WIFOM shit. Dropped my last will and testament just in case lol.
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Post Post #214 (isolation #58) » Fri May 28, 2021 5:51 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 213, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 212, Roden wrote:Because this is a solved game and I can't join another until Egix goes. This is only my first game.

Also, you're not dying. Scum has to go after potential Masons even if it's just bait. Most likely Mix over Xlos since Mix scum read me. That'll be Egix's/your argument for why Mix is chosen at least.
Yeah, I assumed they would go after the masons, and did not plan on leaving my "in case I die post", but then T3 threw the mason info into the thread, and that made me consider the possibility of them leaving them alive for weird WIFOM shit. Dropped my last will and testament just in case lol.
But now that I think about it, I think I just let a weird scum play get into my head. Ignore me, we can drift into the night phase now :lol:
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Post Post #217 (isolation #59) » Fri May 28, 2021 6:55 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 216, Wayward Son wrote:
In post 153, Egix96 wrote:
In post 145, Roden wrote:Also, interesting to know about the vote but idk how that checks out. The post you voted T3 with explicitly says you spent a couple hours reading posts, and my only major post at the time mentioned that he was at E-2 and that anyone putting him at E-1 should be looked at. The part of my post you quoted and said you liked states this in the very next line. I'm not trying to fish for a "gotcha" moment here but I just find it hard to believe that you wouldn't have known.
While reading the five people after you in alphabetical order I must have forgotten you had said that :oops:
I'm really drunk tonight, forgot it was a 4 day holiday. Seriously. And also Father's Day, a lil early.

Why read thw thread in alphabetical order??? I always read it in chronical order.

WHY?
He was doing ISOs.

Basically, you make it so that you can only see 1 single players posts in isolation. Sometimes makes inconsistencies easier to see, but it can definitly help you get a feel for a player without being distracted by everyone else. I generally read through the thread as it happens, but then I later go back look at players ISOs.
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Post Post #218 (isolation #60) » Fri May 28, 2021 6:55 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

It is especially useful after someone flips, going back to look at who they interacted with and how
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Post Post #224 (isolation #61) » Sun May 30, 2021 8:23 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 223, Egix96 wrote:VOTE: Xlos

It's either this or Bulge imo. From re-reading, I think everyone else is town.
I have the bulge as pretty hard town tbh
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Post Post #225 (isolation #62) » Sun May 30, 2021 8:24 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 220, Gypyx wrote:
T3 has been eliminated !

he was a...
Spoiler:
Mafia Goon


Night 1 starts now and ends in (expired on 2021-05-31 02:02:08)
Seeing the green on T3's flip post made my heart skip a beat on first glance.

Mod is playing with my emotions.
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Post Post #226 (isolation #63) » Sun May 30, 2021 8:27 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 221, Gypyx wrote:
Night 1 has ended !

Roden has died ! He was...


Spoiler:
Vanilla Townie


Day 2 starts now
This is an confusing NK imo.

Like, I was making a case for Roden to be T3's partner, and I am widely TR (I think) so I feel like they easily could have left him alive. So I guess they were PR hunting?
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Post Post #227 (isolation #64) » Sun May 30, 2021 8:29 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 212, Roden wrote:Scum has to go after potential Masons even if it's just bait. Most likely Mix over Xlos since Mix scum read me.
But if there were PR hunting, why did they not target Xlos/Mix?
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Post Post #228 (isolation #65) » Sun May 30, 2021 8:32 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I can see the argument for Xlos as the scum partner here. If he were the scum, then he would know 100% that the "mason slip" was not real, and would not need to pr hunt in this pair.
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Post Post #229 (isolation #66) » Sun May 30, 2021 8:35 pm

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I have two possible targets in mind, but want to hear more from other people before I state my number 1 choice for the day. I want to hear everyone's thoughts without anyone tries to just sheep me for the day.
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Post Post #231 (isolation #67) » Sun May 30, 2021 8:48 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 230, Wayward Son wrote:I personally think Bulge, Mix, and Luke are above suspicion.

Not so sure on Egix anymore. if not him, then Roden.

I never made my Hero Solve Yesterday, but I'd almost bet it's one of them.
Well Roden was killed by the Mafia, so I don't think we need to worry about him lol
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Post Post #233 (isolation #68) » Sun May 30, 2021 8:54 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 232, Wayward Son wrote:Oh. Slinks away. :oops:
You have me, bulge, and mix all in the "above suspicion tier" - Egix as your solve.

Thoughts on Xlos and Zyla?
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Post Post #247 (isolation #69) » Mon May 31, 2021 6:24 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 130, Xlos wrote:Xlos mafia => Mix mafia
I'm not telling how I know this. Mix hasn't talked too much since the start of the day so I'd like to hear his thoughts on what is going on. So far he's sparked some discussion though.
@xlos
People thought that this was a mason crumb. Like you left a joke saying that you and mix were partnered, so that if either of you ever flipped as a mason then the other could point back to this to "prove" that they were your partner
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Post Post #249 (isolation #70) » Mon May 31, 2021 6:37 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 248, Xlos wrote:
In post 247, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 130, Xlos wrote:Xlos mafia => Mix mafia
I'm not telling how I know this. Mix hasn't talked too much since the start of the day so I'd like to hear his thoughts on what is going on. So far he's sparked some discussion though.
@xlos
People thought that this was a mason crumb. Like you left a joke saying that you and mix were partnered, so that if either of you ever flipped as a mason then the other could point back to this to "prove" that they were your partner
Oh, that makes some sense looking back. I was somewhat confused because I thought the claim being made was that me and Zyla were masons.
T3 randomly switched mix for zyla, but there was a whole conversaton about "we should not dig into a crumb" revolved around that post, and then Roden even responded to me end of day that they had to kill one of you.

I think T3 decided to call out the crumb to reaction test, but did not look back to see who you actually crumbed with (because he knew he was getting ready to be hammered and did not want the thread to lock first)
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Post Post #250 (isolation #71) » Mon May 31, 2021 6:38 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 243, Zyla wrote:Uhh, maybe we shouldn't be this quick to vote someone who might be a mason. Getting E-2 at less than 5 hours in isn't a good thing in this case.
It's definitely weird that Mix-los didn't get killed, but it could've been scum gearing up to try and say that one of them was on the scumteam
I agree, that is part of the reason why I have not voted yet.

Who do you think it is Zyla?
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Post Post #252 (isolation #72) » Mon May 31, 2021 6:49 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 251, Xlos wrote:
In post 231, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 230, Wayward Son wrote:I personally think Bulge, Mix, and Luke are above suspicion.

Not so sure on Egix anymore. if not him, then Roden.

I never made my Hero Solve Yesterday, but I'd almost bet it's one of them.
Well Roden was killed by the Mafia, so I don't think we need to worry about him lol
This seems like a pretty town misunderstanding
Agreed. This is town-slip. Basically messing something up that the mafia would 100% know is not true, like who was or wasn't nightkilled, and therefore gives the impression they must be town.

I fully believe that this was a genuine town-slip, but I have also seen scum purposefully drop town-slips for the towncred. So don't always let that sway you in future games
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Post Post #270 (isolation #73) » Mon May 31, 2021 12:52 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 269, Xlos wrote: Wait, if that's true, then this is a pretty strong town tell for Zyla, right? Why would T3 accidentally switch the person he thought I was a mason with with his scumbuddy?
Honestly, I think that Mix's response to the "crumb" in posts and gave away that they were not ever the mason with Xlos, because they would not keep asking questions about it / not understand why we would want to table it.

I knew at that point that it was not true, but did not want to say it in case it could still draw a mafia Night Kill from the real PRs.

So T3 very well may have seen that too, and knew it was not real. And then all of T3's eod posts were just designed to create confusion. They all just make my brain hurt, and I am choosing to ignore everything after he gave me a Town Real tbh
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Post Post #274 (isolation #74) » Mon May 31, 2021 1:58 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 273, Zyla wrote:I want to see what Mix and Bulge think of the night happenings before I commit to a vote.
Yeah, at this point I am also holding off for Mix and Bulge.

Thanks for putting your reads out here :)
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Post Post #278 (isolation #75) » Mon May 31, 2021 2:19 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Bulge you're here! And you also suspect Zyla. That certainly makes me feel better about my own case lol
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Post Post #279 (isolation #76) » Mon May 31, 2021 2:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

The case for Zyla


Wayward actually touched on my biggest concern from Zyla earlier, and that is that she appears much more in a mindset to spot Masons then I would expect town to be. Definitely thinking about it a lot more then I am.

From my pov, there are just so many town PR combinations out of [cop / doctor / jailkeeper / tracker / friendly neighbor / masons]. More town PRs then I am going to individually try to attribute to players. I am much more interested in looking for scum.

But from the scum's pov, there are only 3 possibilities, and there is a lot of benefit from figuring out the PRs, so they would be hunting for it.

These comments from Zyla are not bad per say, but they definitely betray that she is examining players differently then I do as town
Spoiler:
In post 41, Zyla wrote:Honestly, while that is a possibility, there's also the fact that that are 2 possible role-sets that include masons, so it could be a townpartner as well
In post 160, Zyla wrote:I'll be honest, I was thinking of this as more than just a joke, although if I'm wrong, there are 2 or 3 people who could tell me otherwise
In post 243, Zyla wrote:Uhh, maybe we shouldn't be this quick to vote someone who might be a mason. Getting E-2 at less than 5 hours in isn't a good thing in this case.


tl;dr Every single conversation on Masons being in this game stemmed from Zyla, which could indicate that Zyla know we are in a column with Masons
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Post Post #280 (isolation #77) » Mon May 31, 2021 2:22 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 275, The Bulge wrote:all the talk about masons this game that seemingly stemmed from nowhere makes me think the likelihood of there actually being masons is quite low. plus T3 claimed Friendly neighbour after the hammer, probably a strange last-ditch attempt to out a PR, so I think it's quite likely we are in column 2.
I also noticed a lot of Mason talk this game, so I looked for the cause, and every time it was Zyla.

Although, I think I have the opposite thoughts on T3's Friendly Neighbor claim. I think that makes us less likely to be in Column 2. I think he was wanting someone to say "we can't have a friendly neighbor, because I am ____" Basically, I think he knew that every PR in the game could cc a friendly neighbor
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Post Post #281 (isolation #78) » Mon May 31, 2021 2:33 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 280, Lukewarm wrote:Basically, I think he knew that every PR in the game could cc a friendly neighbor
Which could put us in column C
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Post Post #283 (isolation #79) » Mon May 31, 2021 3:57 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 282, Xlos wrote:The nightkill choice would be pretty questionable if it weren't for these last few quotes. Either the mafia is Egix trying to help his odds, or it's someone (would Zyla do this?) trying to frame Egix. The latter seems like too much doublethink
Egix could have killed someone else, and then supported Me/Mix leading a wagon against Roden. - Anyone else could have left Roden alive so he would tunnel Egix.

No one gains a ton from a Roden death, so I think that the most likely answer for why anyone would have killed Roden was PR hunting tbh.

And I get the feeling that Zyla has been PR hunting
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Post Post #284 (isolation #80) » Mon May 31, 2021 3:58 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Xlos, to be clear, I don't think your case on Egix is bad. He is probably my second highest priority after Zyla
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Post Post #286 (isolation #81) » Mon May 31, 2021 4:37 pm

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In post 282, Xlos wrote:The case for Zyla is pretty compelling, but I still think that Egix is more likely.
If we end up in consensus that the scum is likely between Egix or Zyla, then we can just kill them both :D :D :D

We get to kill 3 more people total before we lose
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Post Post #288 (isolation #82) » Mon May 31, 2021 4:59 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 287, The Bulge wrote:Egix doesn't ping me at all, he's been basically my only nullread all game. if he were scum I'd be disappointed lol, but I'm definitely not taking him out of any PoE
sshhhhh

Spoiler:
I didn't want to tell Xlos this, but he is in my elimination priority list too.
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Post Post #290 (isolation #83) » Mon May 31, 2021 5:45 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 276, The Bulge wrote:
In post 273, Zyla wrote:Anyway, I don't think I've read said much about my reads yet, so

Currently, Luke is my main TR, Bulge seems to be leaning in that direction, but honestly hasn't posted that much yet, so mostly null.
I've been liking Egix for town, but I do want to see what he says about having something to gain from the NK.
Mix has been hard for me to read, so honestly I'm null on them
Wayward and Xlos are both pretty high on my suspect list, but I want to see what Mix and Bulge think of the night happenings before I commit to a vote.
what do you mean by "mix has been hard for me to read"? havent you been assuming very strongly that mix is a mason since yesterday? when and why were you attempting to get a read on them?

also when and why did xlos suddenly shoot up your scumlist, and why didnt your independent scumread of him make you reconsider your mason theory earlier?
I would like to +1 all of the questions for Zyla.
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Post Post #302 (isolation #84) » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:02 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 298, Egix96 wrote:
In post 224, Lukewarm wrote:I have the bulge as pretty hard town tbh
Are you willing to go into more detail on this? I'm asking because I don't think I'll be able to form an actual read on Bulge that isn't just PoE, otherwise.
A lot of it was from T3 / Wayward interactions
In post 37, T3 wrote:Bulge, what particularly stuck out to you about that? What stuck out to me was mostly that it was a brand newbie supposedly having read a bunch of games. This reads to me as if almost fake helpful and as if it was fed by a scumpartner.
Like here, the post that let me catch T3. I felt like this post from T3 was designed to goad a townie into leading the push against Wayward.

And then bulge very quickly joined my T3 meta push
In post 76, The Bulge wrote:T3 certainly does have a weird defense to the scum meta
In post 81, The Bulge wrote: If you'd like some
legal
meta, I just modded a large normal where scumT3 laid down some incredibly bizarre distancing tactics D1 before being eliminated that ultimately factored into his team's win. giving me similar vibes here.
Both agreeing with it, and providing more meta evidence on page 3.

Also, just looking at his iso, the way he is interacting with everyone really feels like he is trying to sort. All of the questions make seem genuine.
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Post Post #303 (isolation #85) » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:09 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 298, Egix96 wrote:Also, to address something a bit more recent, I find it surprising that Luke "fully believe(s) that this was a genuine town-slip" (referring to 230) since, if someone is town, they need to check the nightkill to make sure they're not dead themself.
I did not TR wayward for the townslip. I already thought Wayward was town, so I believe the townslip was a genuine one.

What I was trying to get across to Xlos was that town slips are generally NAI. His comment made me think he was using it to give town cred to Wayward Son, which can be dangerous because scum can purposefully make them. However, I did not want Xlos to think that I was trying to get him to be more suspicious of Wayward this game, so I said that I believe it was a genuine town slip.

Basically, I was dropping a "for future games don't TR people over this, but I also TR this particular person anyways"
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Post Post #304 (isolation #86) » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:11 am

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In post 298, Egix96 wrote:I was more expecting that people would pile on me first, with scum simply having to sit back and watch as I was falsely incriminated, rather than them having to take the initiative themself.
Scum saved you from that by killing Roden.

(And that does include you possibly having saved yourself)
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Post Post #306 (isolation #87) » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:17 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 299, Zyla wrote:I mean, the first was just saying that I didn't agree with Bulge that if someone else told them to read that it had to be the mafia, but we've already established that that isn't that important.
As for the second, I do regret bringing attention to it, since if it had been a breadcrumb I could've been bringing attention to the PR, which isn't the best plan.
And I completely misunderstood how everyone was reacting to it and thought the most people were in agreement with them being Masons, hence my being confused with the votes on Xlos happening that way.
By the way, my point wasn't that you brought it up, it was the you spotted it in the first place. I didn't, because I wasn't looking for town PRs. It was not until you commented that it could be more then a joke that I even realized it could be a pr slip :lol:
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Post Post #307 (isolation #88) » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:21 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 301, Zyla wrote:This still doesn't read as a joke to me, it reads as Xlos breadcrumbing as mason. I think he wanted it to fly under the radar for a bit so that he could deny it if pressed, which he eventually did.
What would scum!Xlos gain from bread crumbing masons with Mix? Masons is a hard thing to fake claim if your supposed mason partner is not your scum partner, and they cannot both be scum at this point.
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Post Post #308 (isolation #89) » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:24 am

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In post 301, Zyla wrote:After all, he's very specific in saying that T3 isn't his mason partner, not that he isn't a Mason, not that he isn't partnered with T3.
If anything, Xlos leaving that possibility open is a pro-town move. If Xlos is not a PR, but leaves people to think that he might be one, then it can draw the NK with is a good thing.
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Post Post #309 (isolation #90) » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:33 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 301, Zyla wrote:Maybe this is just bad math, but for it to be 50% chance of column C, you would have to know at least one of the roles is in the game that can't be in the third column, which only PRs and mafia know.
I am having a hard time finding a solid threw line for your thought processes. Because, you have repeatedly pointed out the possibility of someone being a PR as a reason we should be careful assuming they are scum, but then you don't think the same thing here. What makes this pr chance different then the others?

Spoiler:
Also, I don't think the math is bad. The first scum flip we see being a goon, ups the odds that we are in column C
Basically, T3 was either [Column A goon, Column B goon, Column C Goon1, or Column C Goon2]
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Post Post #310 (isolation #91) » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:35 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I also have some questions about your interactions with the T3 push, but I feel like I am spamming the thread at this point :(
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Post Post #313 (isolation #92) » Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:23 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Xlos what do you think about Zyla saying "Mix has been hard for me to read, so honestly I'm null on them"

She has stated that she thought Mix was a mason with you starting in post , and did not realize that that was not true until .

So she claims to have believed Mix to be a mason for about about 3 irl days.

Her wording seems to indicate that she has thought they were hard to read this whole time, as opposed to something like "looking back over Mix, I don't know how to sort them" which makes sense given her prior read's basis supposedly just fell apart.
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Post Post #315 (isolation #93) » Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:18 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

@Zyla, after I explained how to look at T3's games yourself, how many did you look over to decide that my meta case was not cherry picked?
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Post Post #327 (isolation #94) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:49 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Zyla, are you still here?
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Post Post #328 (isolation #95) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:50 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Hoping for a real time conversation :)
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Post Post #330 (isolation #96) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:53 am

Post by Lukewarm »

You skipped a question of mine

"I am having a hard time finding a solid threw line for your thought processes. Because, you have repeatedly pointed out the possibility of someone being a PR as a reason we should be careful assuming they are scum, but then you don't think the same thing here. What makes this pr chance different then the others?"
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Post Post #331 (isolation #97) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:54 am

Post by Lukewarm »

That was in reference to when you thought Xlos had more info then you did. That did not seem to give you that immediate "maybe we should make sure he isn't a pr first" response
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Post Post #332 (isolation #98) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:59 am

Post by Lukewarm »

What was your thought process there? That line about it was in your "My reasoning behind my scumread of Xlos" post.
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Post Post #334 (isolation #99) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:03 am

Post by Lukewarm »

What does Xlos defending you make you think about his alignment?
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Post Post #335 (isolation #100) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:03 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 333, Zyla wrote:So the key difference was the votes vs just suspicion
That makes sense
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Post Post #338 (isolation #101) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:09 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 337, Zyla wrote:That being said, WWS is taking my top scum-spect slot rn
Can you give me your top 3?
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Post Post #339 (isolation #102) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:11 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I know that our most obvious win condition in finding the scum today, but if we can find 4 town players, we win. Are there any players you are comfortable putting into "I am confident they are town"
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Post Post #342 (isolation #103) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 340, Zyla wrote:
In post 338, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 337, Zyla wrote:That being said, WWS is taking my top scum-spect slot rn
Can you give me your top 3?
Suspect to Town

Wayward,
Xlos,
Bulge,
Lukewarm

Unsure of
Egix
Mix
The formatting on that makes it hard for me to tell where you have bulge. Like, clearly less suspect then xlos but more then me, but like. is that leaning scum, but less then xlos? or is that leaning town, but less then me?
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Post Post #344 (isolation #104) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:10 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Ugh, I just need Mix to return :sob:
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Post Post #352 (isolation #105) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:36 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 351, Egix96 wrote:
In post 172, Roden wrote:
I believe Zyla is town. Scum wouldn't make those posts, not even newbscum, and as I said earlier I think she's experienced with this game.


Her and Egix were my two PoE for T3's partner but now it really only leaves Egix. Even if T3 somehow flips town I still don't think Egix looks good.

I believe T3 wants to be hammered ASAP at this point so there's less information to dissect Day 2. His theoretical partner has very little suspicion on them and an ongoing Day 1 threatens that. That's why I refrained from hammering, and potentially why Egix put T3 at hammer range. Maybe to tempt someone to hammer a player who looks like obvscum.

There is another potential but unlikely T3 partner. Does anyone think Wayward vs T3 could've just been scum vs scum?
Hmmm, I'm feeling like the parts I've highlighted here could be pretty important.
Others are welcome to comment.
I see the point that Roden is an odd kill for zyla to make. On the Wayward front tho, It seemed to me like Roden had an overall town lean on Wayward, he even followed up on this exact conversation

Spoiler:
In post 192, Roden wrote:I didn't get any scum vs scum vibes either but I wanted to get opinions on it just in case

In post 145, Roden wrote:though I can say Wayward is leaning more town with every post
In post 163, Roden wrote:Partial town read. But I also just don't think he's partners with T3. Especially when going by Luke and Bulge's analysis.
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Post Post #355 (isolation #106) » Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:55 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 353, Gypyx wrote:
Searching a replacement for MixLixWix
No mix, come back

:(
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Post Post #359 (isolation #107) » Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:35 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I find it strange that both Egix and Xlos are against a Zyla elim, seeing as how they are the 2 other most likely people in the possible elimination pool.

I am not sure yet what that makes me think about any of their alignments
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Post Post #360 (isolation #108) » Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:00 am

Post by Lukewarm »

What do people think about Zyla having exactly 1 town read (me) compared to Egix, who apparently has 4 Town Reads

Spoiler:
In post 223, Egix96 wrote:VOTE: Xlos

It's either this or Bulge imo. From re-reading, I think everyone else is town.
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Post Post #364 (isolation #109) » Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:46 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I am interested in Zyla's progression on T3 as well, and thought I would bring it to everyone's attention

After I make my meta case against T3, Zyla appears to vaguely try to discredit the meta case on him
In post 56, Zyla wrote:As for the T3 stuff, I honestly don't know. As far as I can tell, t3 doesn't really have a list of games they participated in, and I don't have enough information to tell whether Luke picked a random bunch of games, random games that happen to show t3 in a negative light, or what
In post 59, Zyla wrote:I mostly just mean that I'm not sure if that's enough to say that t3's scum, since there's a chance that the games picked weren't quite accurate
So then I explain to her how she can look at T3's games herself, and she reports back
In post 63, Zyla wrote:We seem to be coming out of RVS, so UNVOTE: Wayward Son

And reading from his other games (and re-reading his "rebuttal") I'm starting to see what y'all mean
VOTE: T3
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Post Post #365 (isolation #110) » Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I think what caught my eye was how quickly she had that 180. Like from post 59 to 63 she went from suspicion in my meta read to being on board with it
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Post Post #366 (isolation #111) » Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:49 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

So I checked time stamps. She learns how to do it herself as of post 61 [Wed May 26, 2021 8:24 pm], then is ready to vote T3 as of post 63 [Wed May 26, 2021 8:36 pm] so she seemed skeptical of my meta case, but then changed her mind like 10 mins later. That is why I asked how many games she looked at.
In post 326, Zyla wrote:
In post 315, Lukewarm wrote:@Zyla, after I explained how to look at T3's games yourself, how many did you look over to decide that my meta case was not cherry picked?
I ended up looking at the same amount you posted, because I could only find the one scum!t3 game and a lot of t3's games seemed to be expiremental/non-standard
10 mins seemed like a short amount of time to find out she could read them herself, then hunt for any other scum games other then the one I pointed out, read through apparently 5 games worth of isos from T3, and then form a conclusion on his alignment this game.

Maybe I am just slow at meta reading people, but I feel like I would have needed more time then that :dead:
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Post Post #367 (isolation #112) » Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:58 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

That is also part of the reason I asked her if she would answer some of my questions real time. And there was definitely a delay in her responses.

Spoiler:
7 mins to answer my question in 330

5 mins to answer my question 334

18 mins to answer my question in 338

8 mins to answer my question in 342


I guess it seems weird that it would take her 18 mins to answer the question "who are your top 3 scum reads," but then only 12 mins to do a meta dive on T3

My counter proposal is that she did not do a meta dive on T3 there, but instead switched over to the scum PT where T3 told her not to defend him so that she would not look bad after his flip. That could explain how she would do a 180 so quickly there.
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Post Post #381 (isolation #113) » Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:00 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 380, Pavowski wrote:Hi everybody. I gave the thread a skim last night but I'll give it a closer read today and share some thoughts in the coming hours.
Hello, I have 1 question for you:

Spoiler:
are you mafia?
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Post Post #384 (isolation #114) » Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:20 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Pavowski, I would say in general to completely ignore every read that Mix had prior to joining, and just figure out what you think.
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Post Post #385 (isolation #115) » Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:23 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 384, Lukewarm wrote:Pavowski, I would say in general to completely ignore every read that Mix had prior to joining, and just figure out what you think.
If anything, read through the thread as if Mix was an not your slot, but was an Innocent Child
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Post Post #388 (isolation #116) » Fri Jun 04, 2021 2:24 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 386, Pavowski wrote:Thanks for the tip.

BTW I've seen the term "hero solve" a couple times in thread but -- and I swear I'm not trying to be dense -- I'm not sure I understand what it means. Is it just a callout of who you think will flip as mafia in the end?
It is an almost joke guess as to who you think the scum team is given out on Day 1. Almost always wrong, but it can be funny to point back to it post game if you did manage to figure it out Day 1
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Post Post #431 (isolation #117) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:40 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 418, Xlos wrote: Though before I am totally convinced I'd like to hear someone's opinion against this defense of zyla:
In post 356, Xlos wrote:The more the day wears on the less I'm feeling like Zyla. Not only is the nightkill strange for a general player in her position, but it's strange for what I get of her personality in her position. Unless she was lying about if she thought that I was a mason during the night. Since this implies she was not PR hunting. Maybe she was trying to frame Egix, but she didn't even realize who killing Roden would insinuate . All in all it just seems incredibly unlikely. Here are the options I can think of for her being a mafia -

1) She's been lying constantly about everything from whether she thought I was a mason to who she thought the nightkill would be framing
2) She had some incredibly unlikely reasoning for the kill (like hoping that a post like this one would appear)
3) She rolled a die for the NK

I don't see any of these things having much chance of being real.
To me this really does seem like a very strong argument, I'm wondering if anyone thinks that I'm missing a likely case or thinks that one of these 3 cases is actually quite probable for some reason I can't see.
I feel like you limited the choices, when there is this possibility.

What from their iso makes you think that this could not be the case: She was looking for PRs. She saw what could have been a mason crumb from you, and commented on it. Once Mix responded, she knew that you+mix were not masons, but did not say anything. She killed Roden because she thought he was could me one of our PRs.
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Post Post #432 (isolation #118) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:45 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 419, The Bulge wrote:
In post 367, Lukewarm wrote:I guess it seems weird that it would take her 18 mins to answer the question "who are your top 3 scum reads," but then only 12 mins to do a meta dive on T3
I don't like the first part, 18 mins to make a post could be 3 mins typing after 15 mins on the shitter. but the rest of what you're saying is actually pretty compelling
I think that all of her responses had a little bit of a delay, I just picked the longest one to compare lol.

But I would also like to point out that her responses today were after I asked "can you answer questions in real time," and even in that context there was a delay from her answers. But when she did the response to the meta stuff, there was not an expectation of real time responses you know?

Given the context of a "real time conversation" I would expect fairly quick response times. Given the context of "let me go check the meta of someone" I would expect a fairly long response time. But then both had similar over all response times.
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Post Post #433 (isolation #119) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:46 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 423, The Bulge wrote:
In post 382, Wayward Son wrote:While laying in the dark (not sleeping),I kinda decided that I'd like to push Egix all the way to a claim. If he claims a PR, we can address it tomorrow.
this post is so chaotic if wayward is scum hahaha but I discounted that possibility a while ago
That is the exact feeling I got from this post. Some of Wayward's posts are a bit wild, but I am struggling to see a scum agenda to them
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Post Post #434 (isolation #120) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:52 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 424, The Bulge wrote:mix slot still town. welcome, dude.
The mix slot is still town leaning for me, but that is mostly because Mix was pretty high on my town list Day 1. Need more time with Pavowski to see how I feel about them
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Post Post #435 (isolation #121) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Overall, I would say the Xlos has risen in my read list throughout the day, so I don't think I would be on board for a wagon there anymore.

I am between Zyla and Egix. I think that I am still leaning Zyla, but would be okay with a Egix wagon if other people don't like the zyla wagon (and it looks like both Egix and Xlos do not like the zyla wagon)
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Post Post #441 (isolation #122) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:59 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I guess you should go ahead and claim Egix.

You can treat this as my
intent to hammer
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Post Post #442 (isolation #123) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:06 am

Post by Lukewarm »

This game will be infinitely more interesting at the moment, if we are actually in column C
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Post Post #444 (isolation #124) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:41 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 443, Zyla wrote:
In post 442, Lukewarm wrote:This game will be infinitely more interesting at the moment, if we are actually in column C
Because we would only have one PR? (Assuming there aren't
actual
masons who were probably laughing at me in their thread :lol:)
Basically. And that would interact with scum's ability to claim themselves as a PR
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Post Post #446 (isolation #125) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:18 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 445, Egix96 wrote:
In post 441, Lukewarm wrote:I guess you should go ahead and claim Egix.

You can treat this as my
intent to hammer
I'm vanilla town.
Sad, but that is the most likely thing for you to claim from either alignment I think :/

I am not in a terrible rush to hammer here. So I will give The Bulge a chance to comment or he can hammer if he wants
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Post Post #448 (isolation #126) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:38 am

Post by Lukewarm »

:/
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Post Post #449 (isolation #127) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:39 am

Post by Lukewarm »

VOTE: zyla

Bulge, you can still hammer Egix if you want, but I think I would rather go here
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Post Post #452 (isolation #128) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 3:33 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

VLA until Tuesday


I will check in to make sure that my vote does not stop a wagon from going through, but probably wont be around for much discussion.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #129) » Sun Jun 06, 2021 5:10 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I would say that Zyla has already essentially claimed Vanilla Townie just from her stating to have believed Mix-los of being Masons - if she was any power role, then she would have known that that was not the case.
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Post Post #484 (isolation #130) » Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:21 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 479, Zyla wrote:
Pavowski wrote:As much as I am not confident in this vote, I am even less confident the votes are there to eliminate Egix tonight. Let's hope this is the game.
I'm glad I was able to spread
some
doubt at least :lol:

Anyway, I can't say I'm
surprised
, even if I am slightly disappointed I don't make it another day.
GG all and congrats on a game well played
You did pretty good over all, but you had an uphill battle with T3 getting caught on page 2. I actually feel a little bad about that tbh
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Post Post #485 (isolation #131) » Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:22 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 484, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 479, Zyla wrote:
Pavowski wrote:As much as I am not confident in this vote, I am even less confident the votes are there to eliminate Egix tonight. Let's hope this is the game.
I'm glad I was able to spread
some
doubt at least :lol:

Anyway, I can't say I'm
surprised
, even if I am slightly disappointed I don't make it another day.
GG all and congrats on a game well played
You did pretty good over all, but you had an uphill battle with T3 getting caught on page 2. I actually feel a little bad about that tbh
I am not even 100% sure that I would have realized how shady his push on Wayward Son was if it wasn't for the fact that I knew Wayward was innocent, because he was my Mason partner lol
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Post Post #489 (isolation #132) » Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:27 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 486, Gypyx wrote:
a win condition has been reached !

the
Town
has won !
Image
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Post Post #492 (isolation #133) » Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:13 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 491, Roden wrote:I just have to know. Did you actually think I had a PR, Zyla? It was funny that I asked to be NK'd and then actually was, but I just wasn't sure why you did it. I'm pretty sure I was up to be voted out next. I had even pre-wrote some long posts during the night phase lol
If you and Egix had both lived to Day 2, I think we would have eliminated Egix. I may be wrong, but I think that is where we would have gone.

You dying lowered Egix's scum equity from my pov. When someone is hard accusing someone else, then dies, I generally feel like that is normally someone trying to frame the other person.

Despite me thinking that today, we still almost killed Egix anyways
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Post Post #498 (isolation #134) » Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 494, Pavowski wrote:Luke as Mason explains a lot. Honestly I was starting to sus you a little bit *just because* you felt so hard town to everybody. Maybe I wouldn't have felt that if I had started the game with this set. But I was gonna be looking at you and Wayward if the game went to another day, hah.
I was locktown to everyone, because I had accused T3 of being scum on page 2 of the thread, and pushed it the entire day, then he flipped scum.

That is generally enough for someone to be assumed town, all the way until they are still alive at Elo. Then people might start wondering why you are still alive if you have been Town Read so hard for so long, but day 2 that is enough to be assumed town lol
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Post Post #499 (isolation #135) » Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:59 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 497, Zyla wrote: Nah, the night kill was way simpler than that
In post 356, Xlos wrote:3) She rolled a die for the NK
In post 33, Zyla wrote:I just used a random picker and got Wayward's name
Maybe not the
best
strategy, but it seemed to help muddy the waters at least
Omg, I was under the impression that the wayward thing was the lie out of those two claims. I kinda thought that that was a way of trying to back away from that vote.
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Post Post #500 (isolation #136) » Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:00 am

Post by Lukewarm »

@Everyone - it was a good game, I hope you all stick around :)
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Post Post #506 (isolation #137) » Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:48 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 505, T3 wrote:I've seen that pick before losing as scum to you.
omg, I knew I had done it before, but I did not realize it was the other game with scum!you
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Post Post #511 (isolation #138) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:56 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I knew she was mason hunting lmao
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Post Post #513 (isolation #139) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:25 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I left a breadcrumb, but you missed it
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Post Post #514 (isolation #140) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:26 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 143, Lukewarm wrote:in that thread, it put me with Wayward Son
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Post Post #516 (isolation #141) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:47 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I think that it would have done a better job for me if he had died first, and when I made that post that was a real possibility, and that is why I made it to begin with
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Post Post #517 (isolation #142) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:48 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Like, if WWS was killed Day 1, and suddenly we entered Day 2 with both scum alive, and my mason partner out, then that could be there for me to point back to
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Post Post #519 (isolation #143) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:57 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 518, Zyla wrote:Gotcha. Tbh, I was thinking of nking you just because of your signature (before you added the strikethrough to "[I've] never been nightkilled"), but then that changed and I just tried roleblocking you instead (not very helpful). Probably would've been a better choice :lol:
Yeah, I think I would have been a good choice. Killing me would not have implicated you in any way, and I was gonna be hard townread over pushing T3. And you would have gotten a surprise PR kill out of it lol

It would have also left Roden alive to push Egix
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Post Post #521 (isolation #144) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:35 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 520, Xlos wrote:
Nice nice, I had fun reading the mafia chat since all the posts are about me XD The last post made me particularly happy, gotta love it when your plots come to fruition

In post 238, Wayward Son wrote:
In post 130, Xlos wrote:Note Egix votes T3 later, risking whatever suspicion Roden promises, a bit of a shift. But not surprising he said he did most of the analysis later. Overall Egix has town-like behavior. I like his long post cause it's the kind of post I've made when I was town with nice formatting and stuff (though I guess I've never been non town except for one game when I joke claimed scum in my first post and got lynched for it D1. I wasn't scum either though...)
After the game, I'd like to know if this is true. You've never been scum?
Never on the forums. Somehow irl I roll scum more than half the time :P But I still enjoy it
I have never been scum either :/
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