Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[numberQ]

Can't post much right now but I was really hoping we'd talk about assignments more. Voting this early gives scum a nice smokescreen to act within.

[numberQ]

Have I played with anyone here before? I recognize a few names but I can't remember if those were games I modded or played in. Though maybe it's a moot point since idk if I'd be able to read them well even if I did have player experience with someone here.

So all that said, I'm fine not picking where I go. I have no real preference for which location I'm in.

[numberQ]

I'm about to play catch up, will probably take it page by page and person by person. If there's anything in particular you want me to look at, let me know and I'll see your suggestion when I come out the other end.

[numberQ]

I made it through page 4 in my comprehensive read through, then ISOed DArby as he was giving me the worst vibes up til then. Then I saw he only had 2 other posts I hadn't seen yet, and suddenly I know why some of you are pairing him with me (who has 4 posts counting this one)

To put some meat on my DArby read besides just his low post count, his 50 and 66 particularly struck me. He tried to throw some confusion into what I thought was a pretty logical observation about Luke + Ari not being S/S. And in 66, the appeal to scum not swapping him was weird and felt like he was trying to towntell or townspew or something.

(I don't actually know what "townspew" means and how it's different from "towntell" if at all)

Other bad vibes:
Toogeloo
Aristeia

I quickly skimmed their ISOs too. I think they both look better past page 4, but it's hard to tell without full context.

---

As for my thoughts on the location makeups.

My first instinct is that I'd like to put two strong TRs with a SR at the Gate, then try to stack two scum together in a different location. If we are right about those reads, scum will only be able to break up the Gate if we fail to stack scum elsewhere. And at that point, scum is forced to confirm one of the two strong TRs, and the three of them take out the strong SR from there.

Those of you saying DArby and myself should go together, what location would you like us in? I assume this is based on SRing both of us. So I'm actually not opposed to that if no one likes my Gate idea. I think putting me with DArby with a 3rd person (preferably another SR I think) will force something interesting and valuable to happen with the swap tonight. I don't know if that's better to happen in the Gate or the Wall though. Feels like a hard win to get if you put us in the Wall, but maybe lowering the odds of a win there is worth it to raise the odds of a win in the other two.

---

I'd like to say I'll read past page 4, but I don't know if I can promise that lol. So from this point on I might just keep up with new posts and look back as it makes sense.

[numberQ]

Yeah that all checks out.

Your page 8 summary needs to be memorialized because I had like, 3 different "oh that's funny" moments with it.

[numberQ]

but Toog I like Toog

can you spell this out for me?

also, i'm probably getting tunnelled, but i think i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location. these interactions bug me.

I liked his entry about being willing to float where ever for the games, when I would expect scum to be wanting to have some control over it. I also noticed that he did not lock into the keep, even through I kinda invited him to twice. And atm I am leaning town on Ari, so I would expect a scum player to be almost looking for a reason to take that last slot in the keep, and he just ignored me - both times lol. That would have been pretty good cover for him too I think, he already said he didn't care where he went, so he could just say he was following my suggestion. So unless I am just wrong on Ari, that is a pretty good +town for Toog imo.

I have also seen Toog get scum read for lower content, but I think that is just how he plays, so I was hoping Ari would tell me if they had suspicion for anything more then that.

I think it's a mistake to say scum would 100% want to have control over where they're going. Like yeah, they need some amount of control so that they aren't all in the same location. But depending on playstyle, I can easily see scum just shrugging their shoulders when deciding where to go. Particularly as an entrance to the game, where there's less pressure for scum to pick their location compared to some potential later scenario. It's not difficult to say first thing "I don't care where I go", then later come up with a reason to go somewhere specific.

They may also predict reactions like yours, and are seeking the towncred.

[numberQ]

I think it's a mistake to say scum would 100% want to have control over where they're going. Like yeah, they need some amount of control so that they aren't all in the same location. But depending on playstyle, I can easily see scum just shrugging their shoulders when deciding where to go. Particularly as an entrance to the game, where there's less pressure for scum to pick their location compared to some potential later scenario. It's not difficult to say first thing "I don't care where I go", then later come up with a reason to go somewhere specific.

They may also predict reactions like yours, and are seeking the towncred.

Well again, it wasn't just the entrance. It was the entrance

plus

not accepting the invitation to the Keep.

Seems to me that he is either town who really does not care about where he goes, or he is scum who does not want to go the Keep - so my Ari town read is propping him up a bit, because I am not sure why else he would not want to go to the keep when given an easy opportunity.

I think I glossed over that part of your post I originally responded to. Though looking back, that invite and the whole interaction was muddied somewhat with your back and forth with Tanner. Maybe ultimately it ended up with Tanner turning the slot down and leaving cover for scum!Toog to jump in, but I think there was enough attention on that last Keep slot to make joining immediately kind of dicey.

And then 8 pages passed which I've skimmed at best, so okay, maybe within that timeframe scum!Toog would have joined.

[numberQ]

Yeah imaginality's plan only works if Luke/Ari is T/S. If they're not, T/T/T means the plan immediately falls apart because the people involved are no longer all there tomorrow, and T/T/S means we lose the Keep. And since we don't know what scenario we're in, any swap that does involve the Keep will be difficult to get any useful data out of I feel.

[numberQ]

Tanner's a stronger TR for me than Luke. I disagree with this point:

[snip]

I have been kinda watching you ever since post 83. You suddenly deciding that you " i

already

don't want to go to the keep"

I was surprised that you were suddenly so turned off of the keep, I expected that you be your top choice even without your plan. And your plan, frankly, wins the keep for you whether you are town or scum. My worry has been that you had a plan to win the keep as scum, but if that plan did not work, you were going to transition to angling for the wall.

So, you being uninterested in the keep when I was saying that I could vote for Ari, and still uninterested with Ari said that they could vote for me - but suddenly reinterested if we both commit to voting the third slot is giving me the heebie-jeebies

[snip]

To me, the evolution of Tanner's thought process here only looks unnatural when it's cherry picked like this.

[numberQ]

The reason I was keeping my reads close is because I suspect scum would either be trying to buddy a player they anticipate being with early, or paint that person as scum if they know they are playing with them.

[snip]

Can you elaborate on this? I don't know if it's just my reading comprehension but I think you just said "in this situation, scum would either do this thing, or this other diametrically opposed thing", and I don't get how that's useful.

---

pedit: Maybe you already answered this, my bad if so. But who would you be comfortable voting in that 3rd slot?

[numberQ]

Lukewarm and Tanner are both being very persuasive right now imo. Does anyone else have a take on all this? Because I think there's 1 scum between them, but I keep going back and forth on who it is.

Tanner agreeing to go to the Gate could be scum taking an out from the mess that Lukewarm pointed out. But town could just as easily do that for nearly the exact same reason.

[numberQ]

Lukewarm and Tanner are both being very persuasive right now imo. Does anyone else have a take on all this? Because I think there's 1 scum between them, but I keep going back and forth on who it is.

interesting that you come to that conclusion? if we're both being persuasive, wouldn't that mean that both our points are good, and that therefore it's possible we're t/t?

Yeah it's possible. But the shape of the interaction feels like TvS in my gut. I can't really put my finger on a concrete reason, which sometimes means I'm full of shit, but for now that's just what I feel.

[numberQ]

I think this is the first time I've seen someone argue they're town because they would have felt too guilty to lie as scum. It's such a weird thing to say in a game that is almost entirely all about lying and sussing out who is or isn't lying.

pedit: Sometimes. I used to have a bad habit of replacing out because games moved faster than I could keep up, but that was years ago and I like to think I'm a changed man. Plus I'm usually playing when I'm supposed to be working, so it depends on how busy I am at work. Or if it's a weekend, how busy housework keeps me.

[numberQ]

So... the same argument, but reversed and projected onto someone else?

[numberQ]

Fair enough. I won't press it too hard, ultimately random thoughts like that are probably +town indicative. It's just so alien to me that someone would feel guilty for the most basic unit of scum gameplay.

[numberQ]

Well he had a cocaine problem, so it's pretty close

[numberQ]

Any reason for me to not just vote Wall now?

[numberQ]

He also may not exist anymore. That ISO's still sitting at 6 posts.

Honestly even if there were more discussion to be wrung out of this, I'm ready to move on.

VOTE: Wall

pedit: Oh there we go. Just one more needed at any location I think?

[numberQ]

Oh right, for some reason I thought it was that the final three get auto assigned. Though if I thought about that for more than 3 seconds I would have realized that made not much sense lol

[numberQ]

Long night made me forget a lot of the game state lol

Was Pav moved because they're scum and it was obvious that slot would be voted out at the Wall? I could see both Luke and Ari being town tbh in light of this swap.

I have to look back at Toog and implo to remind myself what I thought of them.

[numberQ]

Oh wait, if Pav is scum and they were swapped then either A) implo is ALSO scum and we managed to put one scum in each location by accident, or B) Toog is lockscum.

@mod

, will individual minigames flip at the time they're completed? So if we finish for example the Wall today, will all 3 alignments at the Wall be revealed before the end of the game?

[numberQ]

Oh cool. So the question is whose flip will help solve other locations? I don't have that answer until I look back at the thread, not gonna happen right now though.

[numberQ]

[snip]

I didn't like numberQ yesterday they kept making pushes as me scum early, and then again at day start today.

[snip]

Pushing a scumread isn't scummy, what?

I'm currently leaning scum were already 1/1/1 in the games, and Darby was probably moved to The Keep for chaos purposes.

Very interested in hearing this reasoning, because I'm currently going back and forth on it myself.

---

By play, I think Toog is much scummier than implo. But I'm struggling to reconcile the swap if that's true.

1) If Toog is scum and and Pav is not, I don't think it makes any sense to split them up and then pull implo, who was a fairly widely TR slot, into a location that previously had 3 very much less widely read slots.

2) If Toog is scum and Pav is as well, this makes even less sense. You get the same problem as point 1), but then you also send Pav's slot into what is probably the hardest game for scum to win. DArby was very strongly SRed before his replacement, and Pav had 0 interaction with the game before the swap decision had to be made. I don't see scum putting a slot like that at the Keep.

3) If they're BOTH town, this swap actually

does

kind of make sense, for the exact same reasons I outlined above. It means implo is scum with a good town mask, so of course they'd want him here so Toog and I fight. It means Pav is town who's unlikely to be town-voted for extenuating reasons, so of course they'd want him at the Keep so the scum there has one less slot to worry about looking townier than.

This scares me because swap analysis points me to a totally different conclusion than pure play analysis did. I sure would like others to weigh in on this theory because I don't like it lol, but I can't roll it around in my head to a shape that I do like.

[numberQ]

Ah you know what, I think my theorizing isn't considering the fact that scum HAD to swap. That might make scenario 2 more valid? Because then they definitely have to send either Toog or Pav to the Keep. Does it make sense for them to send Pav? I did lightly SR Toog D1. Though I don't think I gave off an indication it was a strong read at all. Just bad vibes mostly. Whereas I was pretty happy with my DArby SR. And it doesn't look like implo talked about either, so that'd be null in the scumteam's decision. IMO it would have made more sense for Toog to go to the Keep in a {Pav, Toog, ?} situation.

[numberQ]

NumberQ can you rewrite your thoughts for me please? I am having issues understanding your wall.

I don't know exactly what parts you had trouble with but I'll try.

It was analyzing the swap in the context of Pav and Toog associations (since they were both in my location before getting split). There are 3 scenarios I went over:

1) Toog is scum, Pav is not. Splitting them up makes little sense, because it's putting implo (who was fairly TRed D1) into the Wall (which would have had myself, Toog, and Pav, 3 slots who were not very TRed). Why not keep the three of us in the Keep so it's that much harder for town to win?

2) Both Toog and Pav are scum. This makes even less sense. Again, pulling implo into the Keep is a bad move, plus now the scumteam is putting Pav in the Keep. The Keep is the hardest game for scum to win, so putting Pav there doesn't make sense to me. DArby was strongly SRed by most of the player list, and Pav had 0 interactions in the thread before the swap happened. So it would be unlikely for him to win the Keep for scum.

3) Both Toog and Pav are town. I think this scenario makes the most amount of sense. None of the problems with the above 2 scenarios are present here. It would imply that implo is scum, so the scumteam would see this location as Toog + me fighting, which is a scum win. And like I said before, Pav is unlikely to be voted in the Keep, so now the scum slot in the keep only has to worry about being voted over one other player, not two.

This is the opposite conclusion that I would have come to through pure play analysis, and I'm very uncertain on it.

NOTE THAT my followup post does undo some of this, but I tried to keep my general state of mind at the time of the post.

In my followup, I realized a flaw in my theory, which was that I didn't consider that scum HAD to swap. That makes scenario 2 more possible I think. Now, in a scum!Toog/scum!Pav scenario, one of them definitely has to go to the Keep. I speculated here that it would have made more sense for Toog to go instead of Pav, but rereading it I think I flubbed my thoughts as they came out onto the keyboard because looking back that doesn't make sense lol. I'm pretty sure I wanted to say it DOES make sense for Pav to be swapped out in this scenario. It was late after a day of housework don't @ me.

So ultimately, both Toog and Pav could be scum in my eyes.

[numberQ]

Long night made me forget a lot of the game state lol

Was Pav moved because they're scum and it was obvious that slot would be voted out at the Wall? I could see both Luke and Ari being town tbh in light of this swap.

So basically you think it could be a scum-scum swap scenario?
If implo is scum then scum had a more or less guaranteed win with implo at Keep, given he was the most townread of the three, so I'm not sure there'd be benefit for them in this swap unless their read on the gamestate is significantly different to mine.

I refined my reads later after giving the swap more though, so no I don't think it was a scum/scum swap.

Oh wait, if Pav is scum and they were swapped then either A) implo is ALSO scum and we managed to put one scum in each location by accident, or B) Toog is lockscum.

From your POV yes, I'm a bit wary of how you state this without that qualifier though. Since for the rest of us it only means either Toog OR you are scum.

If I'm town, I know I'm town. If I'm scum, I'm trying to appear town. Is it not a given that my POV in my analyses will be that I'm town? That's true for literally everyone in this game. I don't see anything productive in saying "if I'm town, this. but if I'm scum, that."

[numberQ]

I asked them the same thing. The more I let it simmer the more I think the scumteam is Pav/Toog/? (I'm a little less tuned into the Gate). Putting out a 1/1/1 lean without an explanation strikes me as scum trying to make us think there couldn't have been 2 scum in one location pre-swap.

I'll give some benefit of the doubt considering Toog's fever though, and would like to hear their response when they're feeling better.

[numberQ]

don't worry, you're not rushing my vote. i am... notorious for dragging out the yelo decisions until the last second, so.

If this is the case, we should probably set "Deadlines" to flip our first and second game, to make sure that we are not pushing the first flip out so far that the last game does not have time to course correct / read adjust from the other flips

Day deadline is 10 days out. Should we aim for 3-4 days from now for our first game?

[numberQ]

Are we allowed to vote there, or is it strictly like a MeLo thing and only the people in the group can vote?

When I say this, I know our vote doesn't matter I guess, but is there a reason we can't vote just so that people not in the games are held accountable as well? Or will it not matter?

I don't see how fake voting makes for more accountability. We're all supposed to be giving reads about the other games anyway (which I've been bad about for the Gate to be fair). This feels like scum coming up with something that appears +town at first glance but really doesn't mean anything in the end. It'd be so so easy for scum to "vote" each other and look good without any real risk if we do this.

[snip]

That said, you (Luke) are SRing me pretty hard. I take it that means you'd rather vote Ari right now?

[snip]

Reading this surprised me. I don't remember Luke hard SRing you, Pav. Can you point out where this happened that I missed, or are you just feeling guilty?

[numberQ]

Gonna drop an edible and drop some spicy takes on the proper 1v1 tonight, buckle up

Really embodying your profile pic huh?

Actually did The Dude ever get high in that movie? I don't remember

[numberQ]

I guess fair enough if you guys have history. Me SRing you now is giving me NEP flashbacks, so I'm definitely second guessing myself that our own history is coloring my read.

[numberQ]

Of course, you

were

scum in NEP, so maybe I should trust that feeling

[numberQ]

I know one of you and Luke are mafia.

I know both of you have embraced the strategy of shading each other while saying you tr me in order to make each other jealous.

I think it's a pretty good strategy given how much you both are familiar with each other.

At this point the dance between the two of you is like a game of chicken.

Two steps forward one step back.

I'm thinking the best ending would be if the scum between the two of you votes for me, and this causes the town player to panic vote the scum.

That would be quite a thrilling conclusion.

Did I say I TR you?

Your scenario at the end there is pretty unlikely, though it would be dramatic. The moment any person in our game votes somebody else, the voted party should immediately self-hammer. To do otherwise would be against wincon regardless of alignment

This is an insight I hadn't considered that kind of gives +town points to Pav. Maybe the self-vote thing was obvious to everyone else and I'm just dumb, but I don't know if scum points this out and in turn makes everyone even more cautious.

[numberQ]

What was dumb shit? The "summoning 100" meme?

[numberQ]

How does pursuing a scumread make me scummy?

[numberQ]

I'm still sick, and all I want to do is sleep when I'm not working.

@numberQ, have you thought I was scum since before Day 1 ended? The impression I was getting from you was you were setting me up as scum once the teams were scheduled by Baltar. I very rarely ever saw you talk about the possibility Darby might have been scum prior to the swap, and I don't think you've entertained implosion other than as wifom discussion from the swap.

@everyone, if I continue to feel like crap tomorrow, I'm probably going to need to request a replacement in fairness for people expecting a bit more WIM attitude from my slot.

Personal health comes first. Don't stick around if it's physically paining you. (Also don't take this as breaking the replacement discussion site rule, I'm not urging you to rep out or anything, just saying to take care of yourself)

To answer your question - you pinged me a little bit D1, but it wasn't anything concrete. I very much SRed DArby D1, but there wasn't much to go on so my analysis of the slot was short. And I TR implo by play, and now that I've realized (and people have pointed out) flaws in my original swap analysis, there's not as strong a reason to SR him by mech.

ok, here's my thoughts. when you have 1 scum in 2 people, we can preflip some ideas as +scum without actually flipping anyone. what i mean is, if we find an idea that both of baltar and imaginality supported, we can assume that it's a pro-scum idea, because at least one scum was in favour of it. and i just realized that there is a funny coincidence here:

VP Baltar, DArby, imaginality

Maybe flip Tanner and DArby

@Tanner: you not wanting to go with numberQ and DArby makes me slightly suspicious that VP and I are both town and you're scum trying to get in with us so there's one scum among us. You saying DArby should be with VP and me if you're not doesn't do much to dissuade me from that concern.

That said, I kind of like the idea of you going to Gate with us because I think if you are town and get IC'ed you'd be a useful voice. And I think the same of VP and me, whereas DArby if town seems less useful if IC'ed.
For the same reason if VP and I are at the Wall I'd rather DArby is with us than you.

now, an exercise for the reader: if both of baltar and imaginality wanted either me or darby at the same location, and it's confirmed that i am town and that there is 1 scum in baltar/imaginality... what alignment does that make the darby slot?

I thiiiink I see what you're saying? Though it assumes scum and town would never come to the same +town conclusion together. Talk is cheap and scum could say things against their wincon just to look more town.

Although tbh I'm not sure I totally follow the logic in the first place. I might just need to reread it a few times lol

[numberQ]

Go offsite for one day and come back to almost 10 unread pages, wee. Gonna try to catch up, but is there anything in particular to focus on?

[numberQ]

jfc. I'm like 30 pages behind. I see there was a flip so today I'm going to try and at least look at associations before my NYE plans this evening. Sorry for the total lack of engagement on my end, just didn't expect this week to be so difficult for me to play in a fast paced game like this.

[numberQ]

Still like 40 pages behind but I am at this exact moment going through Luke's ISO and picking out interesting posts to comment on. So this is not a vague "I'll probably get to it later" like my last post lol. I'm half-working at the moment though so the final result of that may come later considering Luke has like 260 posts.

[numberQ]

Results of hyperskimming his first 200 posts:

First off, kudos to Luke I guess because he has a very town looking ISO for most of the game.

Anyway I am going to focus on my minigame, because I've been very unplugged from the Gate this whole time so I feel my current efforts are better placed here. Then I can look at Gate stuff later if need be.

Luke was pretty good at giving reads to all three of us at the Wall. Here's where he talks about implo:

Spoiler: implo talking

Maybe you already answered this, my bad if so. But who would you be comfortable voting in that 3rd slot?

Implo is probably my top choice atm

Here are my thoughts on each slot after doing an ISO dive on them - apologies in advance, these are rough. Did not find time to do a second pass

[snip]


Implosion

post 79 is a pro town post I think. And it is his genuine thoughts on the set up, given it being the same that he outlined in the scum chat for that game, post 11 https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12894505

89 -- hmmm. Him linking directly to his scum chat, where he made that similar post, almost undercuts the townie points from 79. Because, yes they look exactly the same as his genuine thoughts, but he also pointed everyone directly to where we would need to go to see that.

I did reall like his follow up with me [118, 129] and my decision to go the keep. Felt like he was trying to get to that info to sort me.

I also find his 178 very pro town to make. Scum implo wants me making the vote to avoid the scum in the keep from being forced to make the vote, so trying to talk me out accepting it is pretty +town for him imo. And, this one (more so then post 79) is something that he very easily could have just stayed out of. Like it was a fight between me and Ari, and he was not in the keep yet. I think that scum implo ignores my post about being the one to vote.

[/u]Reread verdict if there is no swap[/u]
I am leaning towards them both being town here But, if there is no swap in the keep, I think I get get the vote power. If I had to chose right this second, I think I would vote Ari?

Like I said, I have played with Ari before, and she is hitting the same cords with me. And then with Implo, I also realized that a lot of his iso is focused on mech, and while his mech all seems really spot on and pro-town, I could possibly see scum hiding behind that? But again, this is just "if no swap" - otherwise, I am leaning both town here.

One sort of small thing that I've noticed: I, for one, absolutely forgot like half of my opinions overnight. I did not think about this game almost at all during the break and I kind of imagine scum would have been thinking about it more than town

I feel like this might also be a personality thing - I for one get mildly obsessive with my games, like lay in bed at night thinking about them. But, from what I have seen from Toog, I don't think that he is that way. So, your point about Toog seems good.

I feel like people keep making good points, or they make posts that ping me, and I keep flip flopping on numberQ/Toog and imaginality/Baltar. I need to nail down my reads on these 4 :/

Almost entirely townreading implo. No boat rocking here.

Spoiler: Toog talking

I would not be opposed to Toog coming to the keep with me an Ari. They are the only two people on this player list I have ever played with, so might help us read each other ?

I'll go where I'm told to go. The game looked like an interesting exercise in ways to play out MeLo. I have absolutely zero preference in where I end up.

Like, you want people to suggest where you go? Or are you wanting to be the final person who ends up in just what ever slot is left?

I'll fill in unless someone wants me in a particular location.

This seems like a town post?

Scum would want to make sure they end up in different places, so "I'll go where ever is left" seems townie I think.

I think it's a mistake to say scum would 100% want to have control over where they're going. Like yeah, they need some amount of control so that they aren't all in the same location. But depending on playstyle, I can easily see scum just shrugging their shoulders when deciding where to go. Particularly as an entrance to the game, where there's less pressure for scum to pick their location compared to some potential later scenario. It's not difficult to say first thing "I don't care where I go", then later come up with a reason to go somewhere specific.

They may also predict reactions like yours, and are seeking the towncred.

Well again, it wasn't just the entrance. It was the entrance

plus

not accepting the invitation to the Keep.

Seems to me that he is either town who really does not care about where he goes, or he is scum who does not want to go the Keep - so my Ari town read is propping him up a bit, because I am not sure why else he would not want to go to the keep when given an easy opportunity.

The Wall

Toog

I mentioned before that I like Toog's entrance for town.

His iso feels a little more barren on an iso-read vs a real time read though.

I still think it is +town that he did not engage with me on possibly joining the keep. Obviously scum!toog could not jump in, but me voicing a town lean on him, mentioning him joining the keep, and then me and ari getting into a 1v1 - that would have had to have been an appealing slot for scum!toog, and I would have expected him to at least test the waters on joining, asking about if he should, ect. Instead there was radio silence.

Again, there is not a ton more in his iso... so I would say that I am leaning town here, but not as strongly as I had Ari or Implo.

[snip]

Again, almost entirely townreading Toog.

He townreads me as well except for one post where he analyzes the location makeups, but I closed that tab already so I don't have the quote handy. That location analysis isn't really even a SR on me though? Regardless, I'm not going to linger here because I know I'm town.

The interesting bits happen once RH9 reps in. I won't quote everything because I'm really short on time right now and have to run, but go to the second page of Luke's ISO and ctrl+F "RH9". He starts scumreading him hard, a total reversal from his Toog read. Which is normally fine, it's a new player so a new read makes sense. But what does scum!Luke gain from going after scum!RH9 so hard? Luke was in the hardest game for scum to win, and RH9 is in the easiest game for scum to win. Not sure it really makes for scum!Luke to work on trading those odds.

If I was scum in the Keep I'd probably just consider it a lost cause and do my best to muddy associations. And my final thought for now is, wait, is that literally what Luke did and I'm falling for it?

I'm like 15 minutes past when I should have stopped so this is to be continued. Things to do: investigate RH9 and implo more closely.

[numberQ]

numberQ, are you up to the part where I reaction-voted you and implosion didn't hammer?

No I did not see that.

If RH9 is scum, he did that to capitalize on my lurkiness and hope for implo hammering.

If implo is scum, he didn't hammer because he's playing the long game and is feeling fairly comfortable alongside two other slots who are more SRed than he is. Luke flipping scum is making me really paranoid that implo is too despite me mostly TRing him for a lot of the game (the parts of the game I read anyway)

My gut is telling me it's implo. With town having won a game already, I think it's perfectly within reason for scum!implo to want to keep helping tip the balance over at the Gate. And it feels like such a risky move for scum!RH9 to make, again, particularly because scum is already down one game.

But what does scum!Luke gain from going after scum!RH9 so hard? Luke was in the hardest game for scum to win, and RH9 is in the easiest game for scum to win. Not sure it really makes for scum!Luke to work on trading those odds.

If I was scum in the Keep I'd probably just consider it a lost cause and do my best to muddy associations. And my final thought for now is, wait, is that literally what Luke did and I'm falling for it?

I'm not sure why you're asking this question when you answer it immediately at the start of the next paragraph?

But moreso this post has no real conclusions in it; saying that Luke went after RH9 so if RH9 is scum he'd have to be bussing pretty hard but maybe he was doing it to muddy associations... is... all true. What's your conclusion from it? Is the conclusion that RH9 is town because Luke wasn't bussing, or that RH9 is scum because Luke was bussing?

We're at the point in the game where we need to be making conclusions, not just stating facts.

It was stream of consciousness. I answered it in the next paragraph because I literally had that thought as I was typing it. This is me messily sorting out of my thoughts as I go through some of the material I missed, it's all very patchwork. Stating facts, questioning them, and sorting through them is a valid way to come to conclusions.

[numberQ]

What would RH9’s scum motivation for voting here be. Like they can exist but it just seems much simpler to imagine it’s a town move. Scum should at least want to entertain the notion that the afk player might be convinceable.

I don't understand this post. I agree with the conclusion that the RH9 vote is probably town, but the way you got there doesn't make sense to me. Like, sure, scum are going to entertain any notion that might get them a mislim. Including trying to get an afk player mislimmed. Why is that a reason to TR RH9?

[numberQ]

Do 1086 and 1090 sound like scum talking about scum? Not to me.

Does RH9 bus his partner as hard as he does in 1256? Seems unlikely.

1299 from implo I feel deflates my scum!implo theory at least somewhat. I don't know if scum!implo defends his buddy this blatantly. Hence, I am still on the fence. I'm going to stop ISOing for now and live in the moment for a bit, get a feel for the current conversation.

(Note: "a bit" here means tonight. With just over 3 days left I think it's smart to try and resolve the next game within the next few hours.)

[numberQ]

[snip]

It actually isn't very risky. If I was scum, I would just need implosion to hammer and Tanner to miseliminate in order to win. While scum is down a game, if I was scum, I would know enough about your towngame to fake a reaction-vote so that you don't suspect me and scapegoat implosion if it went wrong. Also, then I could be an openwolf and say this exact paragraph.
But I am Town, so the above is just hypothetical, though I still think that it should to be taken into mind.

I don't follow. My town meta is to TR someone for reaction voting in LiLo? And it's like you're trying to incept the idea in my mind that you'd only scapegoat implo if you were scum. I don't see the throughline.

pedit: Are you pocketing me?

[numberQ]

So scum!you reaction votes me because scum!you thinks from my meta that I'm going to TR someone who puts me at E-1 as a reaction.

Which means town!you reaction votes me to legitimately get a reaction out of me, but then town!you spends a non-insignificant amount of effort trying to convince me it could be scum!you trying to score towncred from me because of my meta.

I guess all I can say is I have no idea what to make of any of that.

[numberQ]

I don't understand this post. I agree with the conclusion that the RH9 vote is probably town, but the way you got there doesn't make sense to me. Like, sure, scum are going to entertain any notion that might get them a mislim. Including trying to get an afk player mislimmed. Why is that a reason to TR RH9?

There's strong disincentive to vote first in 3p elo and I think that incentive is more pronounced as scum than as town who can be more brazen specifically in the situation where things are so precarious as they were when RH9 voted. I think at a precarious moment like that scum will want to keep options open.

If town vote first in ELo and they are wrong, the game is immediately lost. That is a much greater disincentive to be brazen. Unless I'm misunderstanding something your logic doesn't track to me.

Speaking of keeping options open you seem to be still doing that in spades, saying you're gut scumreading me and then going back to on the fence immediately thereafter. I know it's possible to be on the fence as town but from the perspective where RH9 and I both at least seem to be leaning you (at least, I imagine RH9 is given that he was willing to vote you earlier, though things could have changed, but what's important here is the appearance) playing the way you are in this fashion seems like the prudent thing to do as scum.

RH9, do you think this recent spate of posting says much meaningful about nQ's alignment?

Misrep. I didn't "go back" to the fence. I've been sitting there pretty comfortably ever since I started posting again, actually. I have been pointing out posts that make me suspicious of either party. Scumreading you and then finding a post that makes me doubt that scumread isn't "keeping options open". It's a thought process. Being extra cautious and particular about that process during ELo is not scummy.

[numberQ]

I have intent to vote implo, but won't be acting on it until the morning (EST) at the earliest. Would like some input before committing to it, and I have to at least try to sleep now.

[numberQ]

Misrep. I didn't "go back" to the fence. I've been sitting there pretty comfortably ever since I started posting again, actually. I have been pointing out posts that make me suspicious of either party. Scumreading you and then finding a post that makes me doubt that scumread isn't "keeping options open". It's a thought process. Being extra cautious and particular about that process during ELo is not scummy.

It's not a misrep, you said your gut was saying I'm scum and then two posts later you were saying actually you're on the fence. That's literally "going back" to the fence. Maybe you were misrepresenting your own thoughts with your words but I'm accurately representing your words in the order you said them.

I can have a gut read without trusting it 100%, thus still being on the fence. I don't know why you're making it out to be a binary thing like I can only be on the fence if my reads are null. That's the misrep.

By the way, I actually still have troubles imaging a scumteam of Lukewarm-Baltar-implosion as suggested by imaginality. That scumteam doesn't make sense to me because Baltar and implosion haven't exactly been acting partnery.

Has implosion been partnery with imag? Have I been partnery with Baltar or imag?

The Wall seems like a hot mess right now. (As compared to the Keep which was a Lukewarm mess lol)

I did think at the start of D2 Wall might be the easiest game to for us as a whole to get a consensus view on but eesh.

A request: Wall players ideally should state who they see as more likely scum between VP and me before they resolve Wall. I'm sure it's probably there in their isos but would be useful to be reminded.

I don't think you'll find it in my ISO lol. I'll take a look and form an opinion after my meeting.

[numberQ]

I'm skimming D2 and slowing down whenever I see Baltar or imag.

Spoiler: Baltar stuff

Toogeloo
- in my head I thought they were lurking but they've posted more than I remembered, probably a town point as my scumdar pings louder than my towndar
- some good questioning of Ari
- I'm doubtful of his idea that it's better not to give reads yet but doesn't seem like a stance scum would take

Looking at imaginality's wall post right now because snow and ice has canceled my dinner plans...

This read looks very fake reasons to me. Other than "some good questioning of Ari", imaginality is hand waving here by stating 'these things might be scummy, but ill actually town read Toog for them'. Which is unfortunate because I had kind of had gut town pings on Toog.

Don't like this, feels fake.

Starting my read over coffee now. Probably will take me a good part of the day since I'd like to fully read everything on D2 so far. I'll try to keep responses to a reasonable amount so I'm not spamming the thread.

I think it is kind of crazy people are even considering I'm scum since I drove D1 to arrange D2 partially around Tanner's scum reads. Feel like the town motivation for me to be in the same game as Tanner would also be low since he almost always suspects me. Maybe it would have happened anyhow, but seems like I would not seek that situation out as scum.

I think Tanner also had a question along these lines? I need to go fetch it.

Is this true, about Baltar driving D1 to arrange D2 around Tanner's scum reads? If it is true I'm failing to see how it's +town.

Tanner, I am only skimming. Are we certain to have a scum at the gate? If yes, resolving that first makes sense. We can yeet imaginality into the sun.

The dumbtell has already been discussed a bit, and my thoughts on it are minimal. It didn't give me any alignment pings either way really.

Spoiler: imaginality stuff

[snip]

2. He tried to rush the Gate vote today:

Tanner, I am only skimming. Are we certain to have a scum at the gate? If yes, resolving that first makes sense. We can yeet imaginality into the sun.

i mean, the whole point of the setup is that there's one scum in each of the three locations. and you're going "wait, there's scum at the gate?"

what was your thought process wrt our location when you saw that i was ic'ed?

I thought scum can place wherever they want as long as it's not all three at one location?

If it has to be one at each, then my thought is your imaginality read was right and let's flip it

This is objectively anti-town since VP won't be able to post after Gate is resolved, so if he were town he shouldn't be pushing to yeet me before he's shared his reads etc. in full. Whether or not there'd be value in getting me to post more also before yeeting me is more arguable, wifom etc., but him not wanting to wait to share his reads is not a pro-town mindset.

[snip]

I admit I didn't read this entire wall. But point 2 here really stands out to me because imag goes after Baltar for rushing the Gate vote - but literally the first thing imag did D2 was vote at the Gate.

I'm only up to the end of page 30 but I'm feeling scum vibes from Baltar much more than imaginality. Will be posting more as I continue to skim, but I wanted to put this out a while at least.

Some other misc thoughts:

I think Ari asking Luke for his best scum game is poignant because if Luke is scum he's playing a hell of a game here.

This one post more than anything else makes me doubt my push on implo. The associations are killing meeee

[numberQ]

Wow my reads were terrible this game. Sorry for dropping out for a while there everyone, but yeah good game!

Thanks for modding Prism, the flavor was really nice.

[numberQ]

implosion, I think that you are a hero for hammering numberQ and letting scum win a minigame.

implosion hammered me? Am I blind or something?

[numberQ]

Oh that makes sense

[numberQ]

Or maybe you were calling him Notch, the creator of Minecraft, which would be an insult indeed.