FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

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Post Post #1425 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 9:29 am

Post by Cabd »

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to burn a servant.

Caster (1): Lancer
Avenger (1): Shielder
Ruler (1): Archer


Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)

Page Usage: 26/42
Last edited by Cabd on Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1426 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:59 am

Post by Servant Rider »

In post 1350, Servant Lancer wrote:beast/avenger unlikely to be partners.
Why do you think this?

I'm fine with the idea that Foreigner is probably just town considering it was likely they were the scum-designated mislim.

My preferred elimination pool currently contains Avenger, Saber, and Beast.
In post 1389, Servant Foreigner wrote:Me and saber were first to catch Moon, so you should follow me now.
Who are you even voting right now? Or are you just implying that you'd like to eliminate Avenger?
In post 1411, Servant Caster wrote:I think we just keep killing the people who don't seem to care because I think the scum team might be demotivated and barely playing.

You can pick which ones you would like to go after.

[Scummiest]: Rider
Regarding my 'apathy,' just because my effort doesn't look like another player's effort, it doesn't mean I don't care. My schedule is such that I run into periods where it is very difficult or even impossible for me to post or pay attention to this game. But I'm still following along and contributing when I can.
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Post Post #1427 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:03 am

Post by Servant Beast »

Why are you scum reading me Rider?
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Post Post #1428 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:04 am

Post by Servant Rider »

I feel like I went through it pretty extensively in my previous (albeit unfinished) analysis of the game.
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Post Post #1429 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:12 am

Post by Servant Beast »

I reread it. There's not much to comment or clarify on.

VOTE: Saber
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Post Post #1430 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:33 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

VOTE: Saber
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Post Post #1431 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:40 pm

Post by Servant Archer »

UNVOTE:
@Saber -- I would very much like an updated read list from you, with reasoning please and thank you
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Post Post #1432 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 3:04 pm

Post by Servant Shielder »

In post 1415, Servant Berserker wrote:
In post 1355, Servant Shielder wrote:Personally I feel that a traffic analyst claim should at least earn Saber a night to attempt actions
I don't think TA is going to yield much given Moon's flip
I don't see why not based on flip

I am concerned about saber's true name being revealed
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Post Post #1433 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 3:08 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

In post 1432, Servant Shielder wrote:
In post 1415, Servant Berserker wrote:
In post 1355, Servant Shielder wrote:Personally I feel that a traffic analyst claim should at least earn Saber a night to attempt actions
I don't think TA is going to yield much given Moon's flip
I don't see why not based on flip

I am concerned about saber's true name being revealed
Why's that a particular point of concern for you?
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Post Post #1434 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 3:14 pm

Post by Servant Shielder »

In post 1433, Servant Alter Ego wrote:Why's that a particular point of concern for you?
I have a reason to believe that there is a redirection role in this game. Possibly even tied to revealing your name, since we don't know what that entails.
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Post Post #1435 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 3:57 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

On review, I think Lancer and Rider both look very, very good off the Moon Cancer flip. Those two, plus Shielder and Archer, are my top town currently.

I find the positioning of Caster and Beast around the flip problematic. I understand the impulse to go after Avenger given the awkwardness of his stance around Moon but I'm feeling some reservations. I'm not actually sure scum pull such an attention-drawing move like that.
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Post Post #1436 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:14 pm

Post by Servant Archer »

In post 1435, Servant Alter Ego wrote:On review, I think Lancer and Rider both look very, very good off the Moon Cancer flip. Those two, plus Shielder and Archer, are my top town currently.

I find the positioning of Caster and Beast around the flip problematic. I understand the impulse to go after Avenger given the awkwardness of his stance around Moon but I'm feeling some reservations. I'm not actually sure scum pull such an attention-drawing move like that.
Can you explain what makes Rider look "very, very good" off the Moon Cancer flip?

I am looking at Rider's iso, specifically for mentions of Moon Cancer

- Does not have Moon Cancer in their "prefered elimination" list - actually has 5 other players listed higher: "Saber, Beast, and Avenger. Just outside of that pool are Foreigner and Shielder"

- covers the entire player base, does have moon as "Not a huge fan here." But, because it is in the middle of a reads list, it is not actually pushing moon

- Empty vote, votes Moon Cancer

But then there is very little trying to get other people to go there. And by "very little" I mean that Rider does not mention a single reason for people to vote Moon Cancer, then moves to Saber
In post 935, Servant Rider wrote:If people would rather skip the partner speculation, I'd be perfectly fine with wagoning/eliminating Saber here.
Post gladiate, they vote moon again -


I mean, I don't think Rider looks bad on a Moon flip, just curious what makes you think they look "very, very good"
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Post Post #1437 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:15 pm

Post by Servant Archer »

I am also realizing that I am having the hardest time keeping Rider and Ruler's posts separated in my head :dead:
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Post Post #1438 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:22 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

In post 1436, Servant Archer wrote:855 - covers the entire player base, does have moon as "Not a huge fan here." But, because it is in the middle of a reads list, it is not actually pushing moon

912 - Empty vote, votes Moon Cancer
That feels a little bit of an unfair assessment? Just because the evaluation came "in the middle of a reads list" does not make it any less correct. The naked vote also goes entirely in conjunction with the read - sure, he
could
have voted elsewhere based on his previous stances, but he
didn't
. (He also had early, although that is admittedly a very slight point about the oddness of Moon scumreading me but voting with me, I give credit for them actually bothering to call it out). If they were not the most vocal or aggressive pusher of Moon Cancer, I still like them significantly better than those who were trying not to call attention to Moon Cancer at all.
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Post Post #1439 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:24 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

In post 1436, Servant Archer wrote:But, because it is in the middle of a reads list, it is not actually pushing moon
The names in that list aren't in any particular order.
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Post Post #1440 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:25 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

I loved Caster's energy in the first phase, where she seemed truly committed to her read of Berserker, even if it was wrong. Here's everything she's done since then:

Spoiler:
In post 765, Servant Caster wrote:I've never been happier to be wrong *dances*
In post 780, Servant Caster wrote:
In post 771, Servant Berserker wrote:Caster, I would like you to do a hard reset and give me a few scum picks when you are up.

Still waiting on Shielder's finished catchup as well as the others to chime in tomorrow.
Can I just flirt with you and poke your massive pecs instead ~.~
In post 781, Servant Caster wrote:I'm really quite confused why the scum team decided to play this way.

like it would be a real shame if the entire scum team was in the awol section of the game.

I was really looking foward to playing this >.<
In post 837, Servant Caster wrote:
In post 794, Servant Berserker wrote:There's a 0% chance scum don't have tons of fun toys. It's why we crush them with day play.
This line is so hot

Please let me be your sword.

Your enemies are my enemies from this day till the last day.

I just want you to carry me because I'm silly and stupid and you're better than I deserve <3
In post 838, Servant Caster wrote:I should probably be responsible and read and figure things out but I'm just sooo

I don't even know how to describe this emotion.

I want to flirt and dance and sing and be happy.

I'll probably sit down and actually try to put some coherent words together.

just let me be happy for this weekend

<3
In post 1015, Servant Caster wrote:It almost feels like Saber is trying to get townread by claiming a really useless and anti-town NP, I can't really understand how anyone would think this type of NP is strong?

If a TvT got toxic/heated we could just tell the two players to take a 24 hour break? Why would we even use an NP it's just kind of crazy.
In post 1075, Servant Caster wrote:I have a lot of stupid paranoid thoughts in my head and I kind of just want to shut up and follow your lead and hope we kill the bad people because I think you have a better grasp on this game than I do.

The game feels too easy right now and I just kind of hope it really is that easy and it probably just is?
In post 1077, Servant Caster wrote:like if you want my full thoughts on Saber I can write them up but I don't want to confuse the issue anymore.

If you think executing Saber for D1 is the best choice I am more than happy to follow your lead.
In post 1082, Servant Caster wrote:
In post 1078, Servant Alter Ego wrote:What are your thoughts on Moon Cancer? You don't seem to have spoken about them at all.
They have eleven posts and none of them are very good?

Just skimming over its ISO it looks pretty bleh and not very involved in the game.

Could be lazy scum, could be lazy town. I don't like how it doesn't really justify it's reasoning for several votes/comments, transition from berserker is terrible to voting for berserker is absent.

I think it's a fine flip and probably better odds than random to flip scum.
In post 1084, Servant Caster wrote:I have promised my vote to Berserker and I will follow him wherever he goes <3
In post 1085, Servant Caster wrote:Since we have a shared deadline I would like to get the flip done before we are at 4 days so we have proper time to process the flip.
In post 1246, Servant Caster wrote:Words can't describe how sad I am that I won't get to flirt with Notsci.

Image

Also what's going on I haven't caught up yet
In post 1248, Servant Caster wrote:VOTE: Avenger

I think this is what Notsci would've wanted from the post he slipped on
In post 1269, Servant Caster wrote:VOTE: Moon Cancer
In post 1402, Servant Caster wrote:
In post 1350, Servant Lancer wrote:caster: reaction to the gladiate was nonexistent, used notscience's post as basis for vote and avoided saying literally anything else about the gladiate
I was not online during the gladiate

when I logged on the gladiate was over.
In post 1403, Servant Caster wrote:
In post 1397, Servant Foreigner wrote:What is this vote? Caster had no earlier concerns about Moon but jumped in as soon as saw that Moon is going to die.
another lie

if you're town you should really learn how to read posts
In post 1405, Servant Caster wrote:This was my reply to Alter Ego when they questioned me about Moon Cancer. I was very fine with voting the slot and felt it was fairly good odds to flip scum but I had promised my vote to Berserker. I then went to sleep. When I logged on the gladiate was over, Berserker was replaced and instead of reading 8 pages of people yelling at Foreigner I just read what Notty's last post was and it was an OK to vote for the person I thought was pretty susp before I fell went to bed so I voted Moon Cancer.


In post 1082, Servant Caster wrote:
In post 1078, Servant Alter Ego wrote:What are your thoughts on Moon Cancer? You don't seem to have spoken about them at all.
They have eleven posts and none of them are very good?

Just skimming over its ISO it looks pretty bleh and not very involved in the game.

Could be lazy scum, could be lazy town. I don't like how it doesn't really justify it's reasoning for several votes/comments, transition from berserker is terrible to voting for berserker is absent.

I think it's a fine flip and probably better odds than random to flip scum.
In post 1084, Servant Caster wrote:I have promised my vote to Berserker and I will follow him wherever he goes <3
In post 1085, Servant Caster wrote:Since we have a shared deadline I would like to get the flip done before we are at 4 days so we have proper time to process the flip.
In post 1409, Servant Caster wrote:I must've forgotten what actually happened since I was sleepy when I woke up.

I did vote avenger, that is what notty would've wanted between the two of them.
In post 1410, Servant Caster wrote:
In post 1095, Annie Edison wrote:Yeah, I clocked that too foreigner. We will deal with them next flip.
^ this is the post I was referring to where Notty said he wanted Avenger dead on next flip.
In post 1411, Servant Caster wrote:
In post 1407, Servant Alter Ego wrote:Caster, it's been a week since day 1 started. Do you have reads?
I think we just keep killing the people who don't seem to care because I think the scum team might be demotivated and barely playing. The MC flip would imply this.

You can pick which ones you would like to go after.

My current order list is:

Towniest
Berserker, Alter Ego, Ruler, Shielder,
Beast, Foreigner, Lancer, Archer
Assassin,
Saber, Avenger
Rider
Scummiest
In post 1412, Servant Caster wrote:Revising this:

Towniest

Berserker, Alter Ego, Ruler, Shielder,
Beast, Foreigner, Lancer, Archer
Assassin, Rider
Saber, Avenger

Scummiest

I didn't remember anything rider posted but then re-reading the ISO I thought was a pretty decent effort-ish.

Maybe I need to look in the townblock earlier than I thought I would have to.
In post 1424, Servant Caster wrote:
In post 1416, Servant Alter Ego wrote:You realize that would probably mean killing you at this point?
I'm pretty sure I've cared/put more into this game than most playing have.

I've stepped back when I felt it was better for thread health and to let Berserker run things.

If I were scum I wouldn't be playing support. I usually just play mid solo.


This leaves me to ask: Where's the solving? For the most part she was exclusively leaning on notscience until he altslipped. I find it problematic now how her view of the game in the first phase had been mostly narrow but on being proven wrong there was no effort to re-evaluate or broaden her view. She never mentioned Moon Cancer until I asked about them, agreed they were scummy, but opted to lean on notscience and his decision instead. Since then the most we've gotten is a naked readslist.

Her trajectory on Saber has taken a complete reversal since the first phase and I've no real idea why aside from the fact that Saber is a popular scumread now. I also find her read on Rider to be quite lazy, she had him placed at the bottom presumably because he's less active and "doesn't seem to care", but moved him up slightly because of his "effortful" wallpost. This bothers me because I don't think "effort" in and of itself is an indication of towniness, and it makes no effort to comment on the actual
content
of his wall or of any of his posts. For my part I feel as though Rider has been consistently scumhunting with his posts even if his input is sporadic, and he was one of the earliest pushers of Moon Cancer when there was still resistance to that wagon, and I give him credit for that. By contrast, Caster looks like she's barely going through the motions at this point.

VOTE: Caster
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Post Post #1441 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:36 pm

Post by Servant Lancer »

In post 1417, Servant Berserker wrote:
In post 1367, Servant Alter Ego wrote:If I may be permitted a brief moment of self-indulgence: I told you so.
In post 1363, Servant Assassin wrote:I'll take a look at the relationship between Moon Caster and Saber, but I'm going to prudently treat Moon's reads as being WIFOM.
This is probably wise, NK15 hardly even bothered to explain himself after his first few posts, I feel like he went into shutdown mode the moment he got even the slightest bit of heat. Posts in the Townstumps Scum PT indicate he doesn't really put in effort.

What's going to be more relevant is how people positioned themselves around Moon Cancer. Given the strength of his role I suspect that scumteam didn't want to lose him right away and that was why he was so difficult to flip.

I'm not going to immediately jump on Avenger for the hasty gladiate, that was a dumb and incredibly frustrating move but I'm not sure if scum would willingly draw so much attention to themself like that. I have a few other people in mind I want to take a look back at.
Given this I take it you think scum should be off the Moon wagon, especially the initial one?
likely off the initial moon cancer wagon (probably on foreigner or, less likely, on saber), but probably at least one on the second wagon because notscience had declared moon as the elim already. staying off entirely would probably be considered too suspicious.
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Post Post #1442 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:38 pm

Post by Servant Lancer »

In post 1426, Servant Rider wrote:
In post 1350, Servant Lancer wrote:beast/avenger unlikely to be partners.
Why do you think this?
I don't remember but will go check
In post 1406, Servant Lancer wrote:
In post 1402, Servant Caster wrote:
In post 1350, Servant Lancer wrote:caster: reaction to the gladiate was nonexistent, used notscience's post as basis for vote and avoided saying literally anything else about the gladiate
I was not online during the gladiate

when I logged on the gladiate was over.
ok and still no reaction to it?

also

this is literally during the gladiate:
In post 1248, Servant Caster wrote:VOTE: Avenger

I think this is what Notsci would've wanted from the post he slipped on
still not very satisfied with caster recently.

@caster can you give thoughts/reaction to avenger's gladiate now, since you're here?
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Post Post #1443 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:53 pm

Post by Servant Ruler »

It is very hard to get into this game and to understand what's going on
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Post Post #1444 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:04 pm

Post by Servant Ruler »

In post 1288, Servant Archer wrote:Do you think that having a gladiate ability is inherently townie? Do you think that the way Avenger used it was particularly townie? Were you town reading them before the gladiate?
Tldr, no i don't think it's particularly townie, i think that as a role itself its Neutral but how it was used is not a scum for scum trade and the scum flip there further

On top of everything else, everything strongly points to Saber being truthful and all the push on saber is largely due to playstyle difference and i wouldnt be surprised if there was a bad faith argument being made in sabers direction

I thought saber was more null before the gladiate and I dont understand how they suddenly moved to hard scum by multiple people due to it.
In post 1294, Servant Lancer wrote:
In post 1287, Servant Ruler wrote:Excuse me for my language but my lord and savior wouldnt approve of my rage.

At least one between lancer/alter is scum for their hard push against avenger.

Thats a horrible trade off but I dont see two scum going to bat for their buddy in this manner
Or avenger either horribly misplayed or is scum but do go on, would love to hear more about this
And i would love to hear more about my sloy being scum but you moving away from it in favor for... (I would have to check) despite me being solid scum.
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Post Post #1445 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:16 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

I feel as though, if anything, the scumflip should implicate Avenger, considering Avenger led the Foreigner wagon at Day Start in response to the Moon Cancer wagon and gladiated Foreigner when original Berserker proclaimed Moon Cancer was scheduled to be eliminated.
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Post Post #1446 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:22 pm

Post by Servant Archer »

In post 1438, Servant Alter Ego wrote:
In post 1436, Servant Archer wrote:855 - covers the entire player base, does have moon as "Not a huge fan here." But, because it is in the middle of a reads list, it is not actually pushing moon

912 - Empty vote, votes Moon Cancer
That feels a little bit of an unfair assessment? Just because the evaluation came "in the middle of a reads list" does not make it any less correct. The naked vote also goes entirely in conjunction with the read - sure, he
could
have voted elsewhere based on his previous stances, but he
didn't
. (He also had early, although that is admittedly a very slight point about the oddness of Moon scumreading me but voting with me, I give credit for them actually bothering to call it out). If they were not the most vocal or aggressive pusher of Moon Cancer, I still like them significantly better than those who were trying not to call attention to Moon Cancer at all.
My point was that Rider called several people scummy in that post, and I did not read it as leading a push towards Moon Cancer (I would even say that some of the other cases presented were stronger and more thought out --

I also don't think it makes sense to link their empty vote, to that long read list. It came 57 posts later....

Again, I do not think that they look bad, I just don't think they look overly good. Like, they had moon in their scum pile, but generally had other people listed as scummier from what I can see.

However, Alter, you avoided my question: what makes you think that they look "really, really good" as you put it.
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Post Post #1447 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:26 pm

Post by Servant Lancer »

In post 1444, Servant Ruler wrote:
In post 1288, Servant Archer wrote:Do you think that having a gladiate ability is inherently townie? Do you think that the way Avenger used it was particularly townie? Were you town reading them before the gladiate?
Tldr, no i don't think it's particularly townie, i think that as a role itself its Neutral but how it was used is not a scum for scum trade and the scum flip there further

On top of everything else, everything strongly points to Saber being truthful and all the push on saber is largely due to playstyle difference and i wouldnt be surprised if there was a bad faith argument being made in sabers direction

I thought saber was more null before the gladiate and I dont understand how they suddenly moved to hard scum by multiple people due to it.
In post 1294, Servant Lancer wrote:
In post 1287, Servant Ruler wrote:Excuse me for my language but my lord and savior wouldnt approve of my rage.

At least one between lancer/alter is scum for their hard push against avenger.

Thats a horrible trade off but I dont see two scum going to bat for their buddy in this manner
Or avenger either horribly misplayed or is scum but do go on, would love to hear more about this
And i would love to hear more about my sloy being scum but you moving away from it in favor for... (I would have to check) despite me being solid scum.
I have literally never called you scum??? so I'm not sure why you're saying this???

explain why you think one of me/alter is scum for pushing avenger
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Post Post #1448 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:28 pm

Post by Servant Lancer »

your deflection of my question is also noted
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Post Post #1449 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:29 pm

Post by Servant Archer »

In post 1444, Servant Ruler wrote:
In post 1288, Servant Archer wrote:Do you think that having a gladiate ability is inherently townie? Do you think that the way Avenger used it was particularly townie? Were you town reading them before the gladiate?
Tldr, no i don't think it's particularly townie, i think that as a role itself its Neutral but how it was used is not a scum for scum trade and the scum flip there further
I still don't understand why you were so angry at us for pushing Avenger when the gladiate was in effect? Can you explain that again?

If the moon cancer flip has changed your stance, you can mention that too, but I am specifically asking for you to explain your stance pre-moon cancer flip.

What lead to to making these posts :
Spoiler:
In post 1284, Servant Ruler wrote:THIS IS DUMB AF

WHY ARE WE MOVING TO ELIMINATE THE GLADIATOR
In post 1287, Servant Ruler wrote:Excuse me for my language but my lord and savior wouldnt approve of my rage.

At least one between lancer/alter is scum for their hard push against avenger.

Thats a horrible trade off but I dont see two scum going to bat for their buddy in this manner

And, why did you hone in on Lancer/Alter, as opposed to the several other people, incuding me and including Saber, who all pushed back similarly to the way Lancer and Saber reacted
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