Mini Theme 2217 | Owner's market blitz | Over

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Gypyx is confusing me, he said we would have seen you visit jk’d Marci.

UNVOTE:

for now.

It’s definitely not us.

I don’t see why scum!SS guilties Gamma and why did Distance say that voting Marci was a scumclaim?

And why did Gamma push us so hard to vote you for MO?

Like even if you didn’t visit Marci, everything still seems to point to you and you pushing us as his buddy really isn’t helping much either, if I’m wrong.

I’m really struggling with how it could possibly not be you.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Which means that if I am the last scum, that Gamma is the one that tried to kill Marci that night.

Ask yourselves, if I were scum, wouldn't I have just used my hitman ability to bypass the jailkeeper? Scum did not have hitman available to them the night the JK protected Marci or they would have used it, so I should be clear in that regard.

Wait, didn’t you say you had it since D1?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And why did Distance die? Then I have no idea why scum would kill Flea.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And why did Distance die? Then I have no idea why scum would kill Flea.

So when you tried to push is with that, I auto assumed scum!you trying to frame us because I really can’t see any reason for faer kill, unless far was sus on Gamma? I don’t recall that though.

Do you have any idea who’d have cop if not him? I really don’t understand why he died unless scum thought he was cop though. Why else would scum kill him? I suppose VFP frame is also possible?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Ask yourselves, if I were scum, wouldn't I have just used my hitman ability to bypass the jailkeeper? Scum did not have hitman available to them the night the JK protected Marci or they would have used it, so I should be clear in that regard.

am i really an obvious kill..? i wouldnt think so

I don’t think scum no killed.

Did Mastina ever claim jk before then? Why would scum assume she was jk otherwise?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Which means that if I am the last scum, that Gamma is the one that tried to kill Marci that night.

Ask yourselves, if I were scum, wouldn't I have just used my hitman ability to bypass the jailkeeper? Scum did not have hitman available to them the night the JK protected Marci or they would have used it, so I should be clear in that regard.

Mastina never claimed jk until D4, so not a valid defense.


VOTE: Kyouku

I still think you not visiting Marci isn’t cleaning because Gamma was still in the game. Again, definitely not us, I don’t see why SS guilties Gamma and I think Distance was killed for likely having a cop inno on Marci, so I don’t see how it’s not Kyouku by PoE.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The fact is that no one knew either that Mastina was jk or that she would jk Marci. So if you didn’t know of either, your claim of holstering hitman isn’t clearing, especially considering it’s a one shot.

Gamma wouldn’t have killed us because until SS’ guilty, he had me thoroughly pocketed and if Distance had the cop and inno’d Marci, it makes sense that she’d be the kill. Maybe scum also feared her NA? Damned if I know but I don’t believe scum no killed.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Gypyx is confusing me, he said we would have seen you visit jk’d Marci.

UNVOTE:

for now.

It’s definitely not us.

I don’t see why scum!SS guilties Gamma and why did Distance say that voting Marci was a scumclaim?

If I had visited, you would have seen it happen, even if my kill attempt failed. UNLESS I visited with Ninja active, then, if I visited Marci, you would see that I didn't go anywhere. Because we know VFP bought Ninja, your result means I did not go anywhere that Night.

That in and of itself is not a clear on me, because 2 scum were alive at the time, but now we know the second scum was Gamma. Out of Gamma and I, which of us performs the kill if the town!S&M has the Tracker? More likely Gamma, because town!S&M is not likely to track Gamma.

Which means that if I am the last scum, that Gamma is the one that tried to kill Marci that night.

Ask yourselves, if I were scum, wouldn't I have just used my hitman ability to bypass the jailkeeper? Scum did not have hitman available to them the night the JK protected Marci or they would have used it, so I should be clear in that regard.

Wait, didn’t you say you had it since D1?

I have had it since D1. I am town. So scum did not have hitman available the night the JK protected Marci. If I were scum, then I would have had it available, and I would have used it to shoot through JK, because JK is the strongest protective in this setup. It stops kills both by jailing the killer or by jailing the victim.

Well who is scum then because it 100% isn’t us, so sell me on Marci, SS but I strongly believe they have better reasons for being town than you.

Explain why Distance was killed if he didn’t inno Marci or why SS guilties Gamma?

Again, no one knew Mastina had jk or would use it on Marci, so this isn’t clearing.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

marcis town
like
always town
dont bother pushing her

ill treat that as a scumclaim

This reads to me like a possible inno on Marci.

And considering that Gamma was more strongly sr than Gamma, it doesn’t make sense that he’d guilty him.

I KNOW we’re town and Kyouku’s hitman argument is meaningless because it implies scum actually knew either or both that Mastina had jk and that she would use it on Marci and no evidence to suggest this.

Kyouku tried to stop Kitty wagon. Gamma hardpushed me to vote her for MO > Flea/CB. I think the double bus theory is nonsence and Kyouku initially pushing us for allegedly bussing Kitty screams tmi to me.

Mastina never ever townlocks us here as scum. She said this is “transparently town!Nancy”.

Why I believed SS’ guilty was because I don’t believe scum!SS would guilty a buddy, so why wouldn’t I believe the guilty? I also sr Gamma’s “but who’s the partner” as not a town reaction. Then he said, he KNOWS SS is scum but Mastina tr him, another scummy reaction proving that he didn’t actually believe what he was saying, so your reasoning for my auto believing SS doesn’t hold up. Scum!SS tries to protect his buddies not guilty them and Gamma wasn’t even on his radar but Mastina did think if there was a bus, it could only have been Gamma.

I would also not gone out on a limb to save SS if I were scum because he’s seen my scumgame and that would have been extremely risky, so scum!me would just not do that. There has never been a game with town!him and scum!me where he hasn’t doubted me.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

marcis town
like
always town
dont bother pushing her

ill treat that as a scumclaim

This reads to me like a possible inno on Marci.

And considering that Gamma was more strongly sr than Gamma, it doesn’t make sense that he’d guilty him.

I KNOW we’re town and Kyouku’s hitman argument is meaningless because it implies scum actually knew either or both that Mastina had jk and that she would use it on Marci and no evidence to suggest this.

Kyouku tried to stop Kitty wagon. Gamma hardpushed me to vote her for MO > Flea/CB. I think the double bus theory is nonsence and Kyouku initially pushing us for allegedly bussing Kitty screams tmi to me.

Mastina never ever townlocks us here as scum. She said this is “transparently town!Nancy”.

Why I believed SS’ guilty was because I don’t believe scum!SS would guilty a buddy, so why wouldn’t I believe the guilty? I also sr Gamma’s “but who’s the partner” as not a town reaction. Then he said, he KNOWS SS is scum but Mastina tr him, another scummy reaction proving that he didn’t actually believe what he was saying, so your reasoning for my auto believing SS doesn’t hold up. Scum!SS tries to protect his buddies not guilty them and Gamma wasn’t even on his radar but Mastina did think if there was a bus, it could only have been Gamma.

I would also not gone out on a limb to save SS if I were scum because he’s seen my scumgame and that would have been extremely risky, so scum!me would just not do that. There has never been a game with town!him and scum!me where he hasn’t doubted me.

P.edit: that should read, since SS was more strongly st than Gamma.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

I know S_S is scum but iirc mastina TRed him

This is why I believed SS’ guilty because town just never makes these kinds of posts here

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

I know S_S is scum but iirc mastina TRed him

This is why I believed SS’ guilty because town just never makes these kinds of posts here

has something_smart ever like mega-brainely bussed their partner or no?

Not to my knowledge. I seriously doubt there exists a scumgame where SS guilties them. I honestly don’t understand what scum was even thinking. They know SS claimed 2 shot watcher and why wouldn’t he have watched Mastina?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Gypyx is confusing me, he said we would have seen you visit jk’d Marci.

UNVOTE:

for now.

It’s definitely not us.

I don’t see why scum!SS guilties Gamma and why did Distance say that voting Marci was a scumclaim?

If I had visited, you would have seen it happen, even if my kill attempt failed. UNLESS I visited with Ninja active, then, if I visited Marci, you would see that I didn't go anywhere. Because we know VFP bought Ninja, your result means I did not go anywhere that Night.

That in and of itself is not a clear on me, because 2 scum were alive at the time, but now we know the second scum was Gamma. Out of Gamma and I, which of us performs the kill if the town!S&M has the Tracker? More likely Gamma, because town!S&M is not likely to track Gamma.

Which means that if I am the last scum, that Gamma is the one that tried to kill Marci that night.

Ask yourselves, if I were scum, wouldn't I have just used my hitman ability to bypass the jailkeeper? Scum did not have hitman available to them the night the JK protected Marci or they would have used it, so I should be clear in that regard.

Wait, didn’t you say you had it since D1?

I have had it since D1. I am town. So scum did not have hitman available the night the JK protected Marci. If I were scum, then I would have had it available, and I would have used it to shoot through JK, because JK is the strongest protective in this setup. It stops kills both by jailing the killer or by jailing the victim.

Well who is scum then because it 100% isn’t us, so sell me on Marci, SS but I strongly believe they have better reasons for being town than you.

Explain why Distance was killed if he didn’t inno Marci or why SS guilties Gamma?

Again, no one knew Mastina had jk or would use it on Marci, so this isn’t clearing.

I have theorized on why Distance was killed. I was pushing the theory that the D1 wagon on Kitty was a bus, so when scum killed Distance, it shows everyone else that the wagon was town-led and discredits the idea that there was a bus D1. Gamma has motive to kill Distance, because it takes suspicion away from the Kitty wagon.

This is also a.motive for you, but if you're town, you can still admit that Gamma does have reason to kill Distance to take pressure off of the Kitty wagon coming from me.

I do think that Distance innoed Marci, but I dont think that's why he died.

Also want to say that who has the JK does not matter. All that matters is if I'm scum, I know town won it, because scum didnt win it. I wouldn't be using hitman to specifically shoot through a protect on Marci, but because the Jailkeeper could stop a kill in 2 ways instead of 1

If you are town, you saw my case on Gamma. Regarding him sidelining as me vs you and mastina vs VFP dominate the thread with fighting. We've seen I was right about that. When you read my case and think about the whole game, I think it's clear that I have actually picked up on scummy behavior of Gamma's and that it's not a bus. That only leaves S_S, who I also cited as being a sideliney player. Another reason why you dont die as tracker, but mastina does, is that you had both Gamma and S_S TRed. Neither of them suspects you.

Basically if you are town, last scum has to be S_S as it seems Marci was innoed by Distance. What reason do you have to TR him?

Can you explain to me why scum!SS guilties his buddy then? Wouldn’t scum have a much better chance of winning with two scum at the end?

I can go over SS/Gamma interactions. Do you view them as SvS because Gamma seemed to put offguard by them?

Also, if SS is last scum, then why hasn’t he already hammered you?

What could scum!SS possibly be waiting for?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I'm not sure if I'll be able to post any more after a little bit. I think it's best to leave my vote on nobody. I very much don't want to kill S&M; I think ssbm and marci should crossvote and S&M should decide, but if you guys want to petition the mod for an extension so I can provide more input you can.

@Kyouku, I really don’t understand why scum!SS makes this post when he could have easily just hammered you.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

UNVOTE:

I’m going to unvote for now. I still think it’s you but I want SS to reassure me.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Why to guilty gamma: look at the end of the day before S_S guiltied Gamma. I was closing in on Gamma, and Imaginality was following. I think Gamma was going to be the lim that day even if he wasn't guiltied.

Problem is, it seems likely that Imaginality roleblocked S_S, which means if S_S is scum, he has hitman, and S_S and Gamma swapped claims. That would be really risky to do, which is why I'm sort of PoE'ed into voting you here. And I think you are also PoE'd to vote me if you're town.

It does seem risky to switch claims... but maybe not as risky as I originally thought. Scum!S_S knows I am town. They know I will try to.avoid boosting the scum powers, but if they listened to what I said about powers slipping through the last day, they may have been willing to gamble on dayvig or hitman getting through and going for a play like this. Watcher is the only role that can safely swap claims, because they can watch their partner to make sure they were not auction detectived, and they can get away with it because you did not suspect them, so you would not track them.

Also remember Misty's day 1. She sounds dejected to have rolled scum. "I feel the setup can be won by poe" and "that's going to be my excuse anyway" - what if she is frustrated to have rolled scum already, and then sees.Gamma bussing Kitty. Scum!Misty does not want Kitty to die and starts a counter wagon on VFP. I jump on with her and try to convince Gamma to switch, but he persists in bussing. Misty replaces out - possibly because she is frustrated that I gave Gamma an out and he still bussed Kitty.

I admit I’m having doubts now. Mastina was suspicious of SS and he usually does more as town. As long as you were tunnelling me, it seemed like a slam dunk but then if he thinks that Distance inno’d Marci, then why isn’t he locktowning her? So that is kind’ve bothering me. Why does he want you and Marci to vote each other? Why does he even advocate for that?

If he is scum, then I’m going to feel absolutely stupid for flipping the vote onto Cyrus.

I’m having serious doubts rn. :/

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Why to guilty gamma: look at the end of the day before S_S guiltied Gamma. I was closing in on Gamma, and Imaginality was following. I think Gamma was going to be the lim that day even if he wasn't guiltied.

Problem is, it seems likely that Imaginality roleblocked S_S, which means if S_S is scum, he has hitman, and S_S and Gamma swapped claims. That would be really risky to do, which is why I'm sort of PoE'ed into voting you here. And I think you are also PoE'd to vote me if you're town.

It does seem risky to switch claims... but maybe not as risky as I originally thought. Scum!S_S knows I am town. They know I will try to.avoid boosting the scum powers, but if they listened to what I said about powers slipping through the last day, they may have been willing to gamble on dayvig or hitman getting through and going for a play like this. Watcher is the only role that can safely swap claims, because they can watch their partner to make sure they were not auction detectived, and they can get away with it because you did not suspect them, so you would not track them.

Also remember Misty's day 1. She sounds dejected to have rolled scum. "I feel the setup can be won by poe" and "that's going to be my excuse anyway" - what if she is frustrated to have rolled scum already, and then sees.Gamma bussing Kitty. Scum!Misty does not want Kitty to die and starts a counter wagon on VFP. I jump on with her and try to convince Gamma to switch, but he persists in bussing. Misty replaces out - possibly because she is frustrated that I gave Gamma an out and he still bussed Kitty.

I thought you had hitman or do you mean 2 shot?

I guess it’s possible that the watcher claim was fake.

That also has been bugging me. Why does jk!Mastina die > 2 shot watcher!SS? The correct play for scum is to always kill an invest before a jk.

Another thing is that Gamma would 100% tell you pocket me. Gamma KNOWS about my meta of being extremely hard to miselim.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The way I see it, conceivably Gamma could be sheeping you, as he almost always is following you. But you so adamantly TRed him all game and I dont feel like you ever provided sufficient reason to. Misty and Gamma look like partners for sure though, and I think my interpretation of Misty's gameplay makes a lot of sense. Scum that is disappointed to have rolled scum, and frustrated that her partner is bussing on D1. So frustrated she replaces out.

It’s possible. Misty hate rolling scum. I really really don’t want to be responsible for losing us this game but I really don’t understand why you’d kill Distance.

I do think he was killed for what looks like a Marci inno - and in fact SS was the one to point that out first, so SS straight up not voting you and still suspecting Marci makes no sense.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I also still need your full bidding history, it's suspicious you still haven't shared it

I have but not in one post. It’s all in our ISO.

D1, we bid 365 on cop, didn’t get it.
D2, bid 300 on AD, we got the one shot.
D3, bid the remaining 200 on one shot tracker.

That’s it because we ran out of money.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Fwiw, Distance might have been softing an inno on marci.

That obviously would put us in an awkward position if marci reports that Distance had the cop.

She also probably doesn't kill Distance.

I'm not sure if I'll be able to post any more after a little bit. I think it's best to leave my vote on nobody. I very much don't want to kill S&M; I think ssbm and marci should crossvote and S&M should decide, but if you guys want to petition the mod for an extension so I can provide more input you can.

@SS, if you believe Distance got an inno on Marci. why would you suggest Marci be voted?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Fwiw, Distance might have been softing an inno on marci.

That obviously would put us in an awkward position if marci reports that Distance had the cop.

Could that possibly be why Marci was targeted? To prevent her from revealing Distance had cop?

Why would that put us in an “awkward position”?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

marcis town
like
always town

dont bother pushing her ill treat that as a scumclaim

This really does sound like he could have gotten an inno on her.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

D2 $500 on watcher and got it.
N2 did not act.
N3 watched Smoke & Mirrors, no visits.

Wait, so what you're saying is.

You bought the 2x Watcher.
And on a night with NO NINJA POSSIBLE (the ninja didn't exist until D3), with us being DOWN ONE SCUM (meaning a guilty on scum N2 brings scum down to one scum alive), and there being AN OBVIOUS NIGHTKILL (Distance was the obvious kill), you chose to holster that role which you only had two shots of...

...And then, AFTER A NINJA WAS IN THE GAME (meaning that there's an obvious problem with watching the nightkill), instead of holstering until the ninja was dead, you THEN used it on the second-most-likely nightkill other than marcistar who is the obvious choice to say you used it on if you're planning on claiming the role without visiting the nightkill, WHILE THERE IS AN ALIVE NINJA no less (basically, claiming watcher on marcistar would mean a 1v1 between Something_Smart and someone else, beit a claimed guilty or a claimed no-visit which is a guilty on VFP so Something_Smart cannot target the nightkill of marcistar)...

...And that all through D3 you had almost no reaction to my outrage to the watcher being taken for $500 and then not used competently (other than mentioning that not all people had chimed in when I made that post)?

For a mechanics-oriented player, this smells of bullshit, so it might actually just be VFP + Something_Smart, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut...

1: VFP the ninja needs to die first, and,
2: With the claim of having one shot left, Something_Smart is mechanically better to keep alive today because it limits his options.

I WILL say that this is dismal play from Something_Smart regardless of his alignment tho--if he's scum he should know this is a terrible-ass claim that borderline scumfirms him;
If he's town then out-bidding me on the Watcher when I fucking knew how to use it is basically criminal especially with the holster claimed on N2 when we were down one scum and the Ninja was not in play yet and the claimed watch on Smoke & Mirrors is, while plausible to town, also the watch most convenient for scum to claim.

In either case it's bad from him, and I could make an argument for either--but overall I'm instantly putting him in the suspect pool. He may still be town yet, it could be Gamma+VFP, but VFP+S_S could be it as well.

I'm not really ready to make the call on who VFP is scum with, but the play today is to eliminate VFP and then coordinate the best usage of actions, including imaginality's roleblock and Something_Smart's second watch shot.

(I will say tho that overall balance of probability I thing S_S scum > Gamma scum here. Something_Smart's negligence-if-town and the convenience of ease in being scum, not to mention having defended VFP, mean that overall I would favor him as scum over Gamma right now. Something_Smart's play here as a mechanical player is bad regardless of his alignment, but it is much much much worse as town than as scum; if he is scum, he could have reasons to believe claiming may make him town, he could believe that claiming gives him more of an edge than faking having no role, he could believe that the claim is the lesser of two evils, he could make the claim and hope nobody figures out why it's so egregious, etc.; there's half a dozen reasons why he could believe that he needs to make the claim as scum, even though it is a very bad claim. But if he is town, the negligence is borderline criminal in his usage of the role. So while it could come from Something_Smart as either alignment and you can argue it either way, there's more in favor of him making the bad claim as scum than making that bad of choices as town in my opinion. Ultimately, it doesn't matter tho; we're eliminating VFP today, not Something_Smart, so whether S_S is scum is left to tomorrow, not today.)

Btw RE: the track:
Since scum, presumably, attempted to outbid me on the jailkeeper, but failed, they would know a town player got the jailkeeper.
If the jailkeeper was used to protect, they would assume that it was on Smoke & Mirrors, the more universal townread and loudest voice, which again is why a watch there is convenient.

If the jailkeeper was used offensively rather than defensively, though? Who would the scum think would be blocked? VFP, the person with the ninja and a universal scumread, or the other scum?

OBVIOUSLY, with the scum not having control of the jailkeeper, they would know that IF the jailkeeper were used offensively, that the jailkeeper would be roleblocking VFP, necessitating the non-ninja to perform the nightkill.

Which means that in all probability, the clear on SSBM is in fact a clear. While it's obviously possible scum, knowing that they didn't get the jailkeeper, chose to holster out of fear of the jailkeeper, them deliberately no-killing guarantees the jailkeeper agency; if the jailkeeper was used offensively on VFP, VFP's a guaranteed elimination; if the jailkeeper was used defensively on town, then the town player is cleared from the jailkeeper; this, regardless of an attempt to kill or not.

In other words: scum

could

have holstered, but they had more reason to take a shot than to not. Meaning that the clear while not absolute, I still trust as being reasonably likely to be correct.

So at this point:
Smoke and Mirrors = marcistar = ssbm >> imaginality >>> Gamma Emerald

>

Something_Smart >>>>>>>> VFP to me.

i really need to do some rereading.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I also still need your full bidding history, it's suspicious you still haven't shared it

I have but not in one post. It’s all in our ISO.

D1, we bid 365 on cop, didn’t get it.
D2, bid 300 on AD, we got the one shot.
D3, bid the remaining 200 on one shot tracker.

That’s it because we ran out of money.

Okay thanks, I was wondering if there were any other bids on D1 or D2 that you made, but did not win. I did have all that info already.

Why did you bid 365 on Cop though? The mid-day was 125, so I thought maybe you made a bid on a second power for 135, and put the rest on Cop, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Surely you also saw Imaginality's D1 post about bidding at least 400 on roles so that scum cannot outbid us later if they do it now. What bugs me about 365 on cop is 2 things:

1. scum!S&M bidding 365 is left with 435 for later days. 435 is approximately what the rest of town would be bidding on powers if following town!Imaginality's strategy, so it is a good amount to be left with if you're scum.
2. The leading mid-day bid on 2-shot AD was 365. I'm not sure who placed that bid, but knowing that you later claimed to have made a 365 bid on D1 makes me wonder if it was actually you that was leading mid-day with 365, which would not be possible with 500 dogecoin, because you won 1-shot for 300.

So, is there any reasoning you had for bidding 365? How did you and pooky arrive at that number?

I have no idea, he just posted that in our hydra PT.

It’s not us and it’s obviously not Marci, so maybe no elim is optimal?

You know that Imaginality confirmed our one shot AD and now you also know we did track you. I was just really confused by Gypyx’s answer. I’m now clear you didn’t go anywhere.

Pooky just clarified for me on Discord that jk was only 1 shot, so she was probably killed for tracker and she was likely tracking either SS or Gamma based on her reads.

She locktowned me and Marci and wasn’t suspicious of you.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Wrt Distance and marci, I think it's possible they inno'd her, but it's also possible that someone else like Flea got the cop.

I think the Distance kill points away from marci, inno or no inno, but my townread on S&M is much stronger than that, so that's why I framed it as S&M deciding between ssbm and marci.

Locktowning us is one thing but blindly sheeping us is another. If you think that, then why didn’t you just vote Kyouku? I don’t understand what locktowning me has to do with me deciding?

Being obvtown doesn’t make me right and why would Distance say pushing Marci was a “scumclaim” if he didn’t have an inno on her?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Regarding the track, it seems like you were initially mistaken. Ssbm did not attempt to kill marci. However, that's not conclusive, because Gamma could have attempted to kill marci that night.

Yes, I realize that now, Gypyx’s initial response confused me but he made it abundantly clear that Kyouku did not in fact visit Marci or anyone for that matter.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

It’s not us, I believe Distance did get an inno on Marci, so it’s either you or Kyouku but certain things aren’t making sense to me. Gamma’s no dummy. In what world does scum think watcher wouldn’t watch Mastina but he visits her regardless. And based on her reads, Mastina was very like tracking either you or Gamma. She was never going track me or Marci and she wasn’t sr Kyouku.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Locktowning us is one thing but blindly sheeping us is another. If you think that, then why didn’t you just vote Kyouku? I don’t understand what locktowning me has to do with me deciding?

Well, when I thought the deadline was going to fall before I returned, it would come down to either me deciding with no information from today, or you deciding after seeing everything that happens today.

(Also, my reads have been not excellent this game which is understandable because I replaced in so late, and I generally just try to defer making decisions if I can, so given the choice to avoid making a decision I will generally choose to avoid it. )

Being obvtown doesn’t make me right and why would Distance say pushing Marci was a “scumclaim” if he didn’t have an inno on her?

I mean, sometimes people are overconfident about things. I definitely know people who would say something like that without a hard inno. (And I mean it's obviously exaggerated anyway; even if Distance did know marci was town, it still doesn't mean that town couldn't be wrong about marci, and so it's far from a scumclaim to push on her.)

Except for the fact that we have a winning 1 shot cop bid unaccounted for and calling a push on Marci a “scumclaim” is extremely strong just based upon a read and add to that, that he was the NK - I think it likely scum killed him thinking he had cop.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Locktowning us is one thing but blindly sheeping us is another. If you think that, then why didn’t you just vote Kyouku? I don’t understand what locktowning me has to do with me deciding?

Well, when I thought the deadline was going to fall before I returned, it would come down to either me deciding with no information from today, or you deciding after seeing everything that happens today.

(Also, my reads have been not excellent this game which is understandable because I replaced in so late, and I generally just try to defer making decisions if I can, so given the choice to avoid making a decision I will generally choose to avoid it. )

Being obvtown doesn’t make me right and why would Distance say pushing Marci was a “scumclaim” if he didn’t have an inno on her?

I mean, sometimes people are overconfident about things. I definitely know people who would say something like that without a hard inno. (And I mean it's obviously exaggerated anyway;

even if Distance did know marci was town, it still doesn't mean that town couldn't be wrong about marci, and so it's far from a scumclaim to push on her.)

Wait what? How could Distance know she was town without the inno? If he KNOWs she’s town, then he obviously can’t be wrong on her. Are you now saying you know Marci’s town?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Locktowning us is one thing but blindly sheeping us is another. If you think that, then why didn’t you just vote Kyouku? I don’t understand what locktowning me has to do with me deciding?

Well, when I thought the deadline was going to fall before I returned, it would come down to either me deciding with no information from today, or you deciding after seeing everything that happens today.

(Also, my reads have been not excellent this game which is understandable because I replaced in so late, and I generally just try to defer making decisions if I can, so given the choice to avoid making a decision I will generally choose to avoid it. )

Being obvtown doesn’t make me right and why would Distance say pushing Marci was a “scumclaim” if he didn’t have an inno on her?

I mean, sometimes people are overconfident about things. I definitely know people who would say something like that without a hard inno. (And I mean it's obviously exaggerated anyway;

even if Distance did know marci was town, it still doesn't mean that town couldn't be wrong about marci, and so it's far from a scumclaim to push on her.)

Wait what? How could Distance know she was town without the inno? If he KNOWs she’s town, then he obviously can’t be wrong on her. Are you now saying you know Marci’s town?

Oh nm, I misread this. If Distance is town and got a cop inno on Marci, he was clearly softing it. Did you not interpret it that way?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

marcis town
like
always town
dont bother pushing her ill treat that as a scumclaim

I don’t see why Marci kills Distance here and it’s worrying me you won’t townlock her. You are the only one who isn’t and you’re the first one to point it out iirc?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Maybe it wasn't clear that if I vote ssbm and then disappear for the rest of the day, that basically kills her, as long as marci also votes her and doesn't unvote. So if I were to put down a vote early in the day, I'd effectively be robbing you of any say at all in the decision.

Obviously the extension is the best of both worlds because now we can talk it through together. But if you are having doubts on my slot then you should put those to rest first because right now I can't tell if you're interrogating me or trying to work with me.

I’m town and I’m extremely confident Marci is as well, so it’s between you and Kyouku. I’m clearly trying to figure out which of you/Kyouku is scum because I was initially convinced on Kyouku!scum but now I’m having doubts obviously.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Oh nm, I misread this. If Distance is town and got a cop inno on Marci, he was clearly softing it. Did you not interpret it that way?

I mean, I was the first to point out that IF Distance had the cop, they were clearly softing an inno on marci. I certainly agree with that.

As I said before, I'm not willing to accept that Distance had the cop 100%, but I do agree that they're the most likely person to have had it. I do also agree that marci probably wouldn't kill her biggest cheerleader and I haven't forgotten that mastina also locked her as town and also died.

In fact, marci probably wasn't getting tracked by mastina, and it was public that mastina had won the tracker, so it makes a lot more sense for marci to carry out the kill on me and if Gamma gets tracked then it looks good for him.

But there obviously was no kill on you or you would have died instead of Mastina.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Well yeah, my point is that it's further evidence in favor of marci being town.

But if you're really 100% convinced that she's town already, then I guess I'll take your word for it.

VOTE: ssbm

It’s not my word, I’m looking at the facts. No one ever claimed cop but Distance looked like he softed an inno on her.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

If you're still not sure about me, this is the right track to look at. I can elaborate on this if need be, but for me to be scum would require me to do a lot of suboptimal and unnecessary things and also get lucky with the PR's.

And I mean, I would have no reason to fake a guilty on Gamma and complicate things when I could probably just fake one on ssbm and win.

But the gulity on Gamma obviously wasn’t faked.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

If you're still not sure about me, this is the right track to look at. I can elaborate on this if need be, but for me to be scum would require me to do a lot of suboptimal and unnecessary things and also get lucky with the PR's.

And I mean, I would have no reason to fake a guilty on Gamma and complicate things when I could probably just fake one on ssbm and win.

But the gulity on Gamma obviously wasn’t faked.

I’m so confused right now.

VOTE: no elimination

[Smoke and Mirrors]

me and nancy talked a lot and now we think its SS

VOTE: SS

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Basically she thinks there's no way Town!SS blindly sheeps us no matter what.

and she thinks his recent posts feel super scummy

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 6.3

Smoke and Mirrors (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - Something_Smart
Something_Smart (0)
marcistar (0)
No elimination (2) - ssbm_Kyouko - Smoke And Mirrors

not voting (1) - Marcistar

day 6 ends in (expired on 2021-07-20 14:35:14)

We might be too late but lim SS tomorrow.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Basically she thinks there's no way Town!SS blindly sheeps us no matter what.

In what context? Before my V/LA, or after?

You were extremely opinionated in micro game. I don’t recall you sheeping anyone.

And Mastina would have only tracked you and Gamma - either of you she believed to be a buddy with VFP.

And when I initially tried to flip the votes to save you, your first choice was Distance.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Pedit: I think it's weird to point it out as town if you don't put stock into it originally. I remember feeling on rereading you that it felt like you wanted to contribute something by pointing it out, but at the same time didnt want Marci absolutely cleared by it.

You don't remember the context under which I brought it up? We were talking about marci gravedigging Distance, so it was a highly relevant conditional. I always put 100% stock into the statement "If Distance had the cop, then they had an inno on marci" but there was no reason then to believe that Distance had the cop.

Well we would know for sure had he either not died or had Marci been able to gravedig him. Why wasn’t there? Marci said Kitty didn’t have it and then he softs an inno on her, then is the next nk.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Sorry, I just typed something I would probably regret saying and then backspaced it. But that's incredibly stupid. Sheeping people I trust is my MO as town, especially since I hate making decisions and will go to great lengths to abdicate responsibility for them.

When did you ever do that in micro? I recall you had very strong opinions on reads.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And when I initially tried to flip the votes to save you, your first choice was Distance.

Yes and what? Why do you think scum me would try to kill Distance and then tell everyone that they had inno'd Marci?

Your first choice for us flipping the votes from you was Distance who Gamma had also been pushing. Me and Pooky both believe Distance softed a cop inno on Marci and that would then obviously mean that she was targeted so she couldn’t confirm it.

And you’re the only one who keeps doubting Distance inno’d Marci.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Like if you want to talk about things I would or wouldn't do as whatever alignment

Why do I spend 499 on godfather when I know the cop is dead and then get my partner to claim it (opening us BOTH up to AD)? In what world is THAT a smart play? I'm better than that as scum.

It was Gamma and it looked like he was maybe hoping town spends 500 on it, because we know he claimed that.

I had the 1 shot and already used it on Imaginality. Maybe Kyouku is right then and you actually have the 2 shot then because no one so far has claimed it?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If I'm scum

Why did I bring it up in the first place

Because you have a rep as being mech savvy and to look like you wouldn’t kill him. I just have trouble believing that town!you brings that up, tries to get us to flip votes on you to Distance and doubts Marci.

I don’t believe you don’t think Distance had the cop, so you shouldn’t be doubting it considering he died and considering Marci was probably targeted so she couldn’t gravedig him to confirm.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

It was Gamma and it looked like he was maybe hoping town spends 500 on it, because we know he claimed that.

Right okay, if Gamma himself spent 499 on GF, then we didn't swap roles. It follows that I was the one who got watcher for 500, and therefore I didn't get hitman for 301, and therefore I couldn't have killed last night because I was roleblocked.

Does that all make sense??

But no one has claimed 2 shot hitman. I know we don’t have it. What does you spending 500 on have to do with Gamma spending 499 on GF?

It looks to me like Gamma wanted us to doubt that Distance had cop.

Unfortunately we have no idea who Imaginality rb’d last night because Kyouku claimed 1 shot hitman. so he could have rb’d anyone.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I think Distance probably had the cop, like maybe an 80% chance.

Is that hard to understand?

Just give me a yes/no, do you understand what I mean by that.

Yes but scum killed him and then they targeted Marci so she couldn’t confirm it. She couldn’t have anyway due to jk but why didn’t you watch Marci, why us? Considering that scum killed Distance and Marci was going to gravedig him. shouldn’t you have been watching her not us?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

But no one has claimed 2 shot hitman. I know we don’t have it. What does you spending 500 on have to do with Gamma spending 499 on GF?

Well, it was established that since I was RB'd last night, the only way I can be scum is if I swapped claims with Gamma so I would have enough to afford hitman. So that would require Gamma actually buying the watcher and me actually buying the godfather, so I would have 301 left. If you don't think that's what happened, then I can't be scum.

Imaginality said he would do that because he thought you were the only one who didn’t have hitman but then Kyouku claimed it, so we don’t know for sure who he rb’d.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Unfortunately we have no idea who Imaginality rb’d last night because Kyouku claimed 1 shot hitman.

... He RB'd me. He said he would do it yesterday and he confirmed it to marci in the hood.

???

Where did he confirm that to Marci?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Yes but scum killed him and then they targeted Marci so she couldn’t confirm it. She couldn’t have anyway due to jk but why didn’t you watch Marci, why us? Considering that scum killed Distance and Marci was going to gravedig him. shouldn’t you have been watching her not us?

You were my strongest townread. I don't think we even knew the cop was dead by that point?

Distance died N2, Marci was jk’d N3.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And did he have anything in the PT for you to share now?

im not allowed to copy paste right?
he 100% roleblocked something_smart i think.
he didnt really leave me "share with the class" sort of thing tho.

i can share what his reads were, but im not sure how much of it u guys wanna see? do u want everything

Oh but how do we know you don’t have 2 shot hitman? How do we know you actually have watcher?

Then why does Gamma kill Mastina? It should be obvious to him that you would watch Mastina. Like it’s scum suicide to kill Mastina with a town watcher who likely catches you.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

On N3 we did not know for sure the cop was dead, I don't think?

Don’t you find it suspicious that Marci gravedigs Kitty and finds no cop, Distance soft innos Marci then is NK’d. Then next night she is clearly the target because scum no killed?

Like he straight up said D2 that pushing her was a “scumclaim”. And we know that someone had to have cop and then your #1 sr when I asked you who should we flip the votes to to save you, was Distance.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Unfortunately we have no idea who Imaginality rb’d last night because Kyouku claimed 1 shot hitman.

... He RB'd me. He said he would do it yesterday and he confirmed it to marci in the hood.

???

Where did he confirm that to Marci?

in the neighborhood i had with him

Was this at night?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Because he thought I would WIFOM out of it?
Because he thought he could win the 1v1?
Because he was counting on his partner to carry?
Because he just didn't think that far ahead? Hell if I know. It's not my job to justify the actions of dead scum. It's my job to explain why my actions don't make sense from scum, because they don't.

How do we know you have watcher and not 2 shot hitman? So the rb on you is not clearing. If your buddies with Gamma then you would obviously know he killed Mastina and why would we get visited > gravedigger Marci?

Same reason Mastina didn’t jk us despite us being her #1 tr.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That entire plan doesn't make any sense because I WAS THE ONE TO SAY DISTANCE MIGHT HAVE INNO'D MARCI. It's not even WIFOM. It's just me ruining my own plan! Once I've brought it out in the open, I can't be all sneaky sneaky trying to prevent you from figuring it out... If I wanted to keep that a secret I would just shut my goddamn mouth and quietly kill marci.

That’s especially why you sussing on her doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Well, Marci would probably be dead without the jk, so it’s obvious scum didn’t want her to gravedig Distance and if you were 80% sure that Distance had an inno on her, why did you want us to flip the votes to him?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

How do we know you have watcher and not 2 shot hitman?

What would I have instead of watcher? 2 shot AD? Why wouldn't I just claim that? If I wanted to call Gamma guilty I could just say he drafted hitman directly, that would be so much simpler and there's no reason to lie if I don't have to.

Or do you think I just have nothing and spent no money for the first 3 days?

How could town!you possibly know if Gamma drafted hitman and since no hitman was apparently needed to kill Mastina, how is this even relevant?

@mod, what were the final bids on both 2 shot AD, 2 shot hitman and watcher?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

This is honestly just ridiculous.

You are bending over backwards trying to believe a narrative where I am scum and pull some stupid insane gambits that you already admitted are not at all within my comfort zone as scum, when there's absolutely no reason ssbm can't be scum. None at all. You are not pelting her with questions. Why? I don't know, but it's infuriating, and even more so because I don't doubt that you're trying to help town.

I have seen so many more games lost due to last-minute paranoia than won because of it. Trust me when I say (and I would not lie about this!) that your sudden theories are going to be less accurate than the ones you developed over the whole game.

It’s your reasons, positioning around Distance/Marci that is bothering me. Considering Distance said pushing her was a “scumclaim”, why would you want us to flip votes to him and even after he is NK’d and no kill due to Mastina jk’ing Marci, you still doubt it?

Like why didn’t you have this take on Kyouku sooner and instead of rereading the game, you say you’ll take our word that Marci’s town? Why wouldn’t you look to the actual game instead of sheeping us?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

How do we know you have watcher and not 2 shot hitman?

What would I have instead of watcher? 2 shot AD? Why wouldn't I just claim that? If I wanted to call Gamma guilty I could just say he drafted hitman directly, that would be so much simpler and there's no reason to lie if I don't have to.

Or do you think I just have nothing and spent no money for the first 3 days?

How could town!you possibly know if Gamma drafted hitman and since no hitman was apparently needed to kill Mastina, how is this even relevant?

@mod, what were the final bids on both 2 shot AD, 2 shot hitman and watcher?

450, 301, 500, respectively iirc

Kyouku can you tell me your bidding history again? I know you have one shot hitman, how much did that cost you?

Marci, you too please. How much did you spend on gravedigger.

Like the same person can only have one of these. Was Gamma’s 499 a midday or final bid and

@mod, why was the final bid on cop redacted?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

It was Gamma and it looked like he was maybe hoping town spends 500 on it, because we know he claimed that.

Right okay, if Gamma himself spent 499 on GF, then we didn't swap roles. It follows that I was the one who got watcher for 500, and therefore I didn't get hitman for 301, and therefore I couldn't have killed last night because I was roleblocked.

Does that all make sense??

But no one has claimed 2 shot hitman. I know we don’t have it. What does you spending 500 on have to do with Gamma spending 499 on GF?

It looks to me like Gamma wanted us to doubt that Distance had cop.

Unfortunately we have no idea who Imaginality rb’d last night because Kyouku claimed 1 shot hitman. so he could have rb’d anyone.

Marci claimed that Imaginality told her in their hood that he was going to roleblock S_S last night. unless Marci is scum, S_S was roleblocked last night. Why does scum!Marci tell us who was roleblocked? scum!Marci can just lie and say she was not neighborized, and we all can go along thinking maybe Imaginality chose not to use it, or we can all think he must have neighborized our top SR and our SR is lying about not being neighborized, etc.

I don’t think Marci is lying but unless Imaginality changed his mind, SS would have to have himan right? Or Gamma?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

soo like im having doubts again aa

lmk if you want to no elim

nahh i think its more beneficial to vote here

Marci, you too please. How much did you spend on gravedigger.

225 on gravedigger

Did you buy anything else? Imaginality bought rb and ? All of this mech stuff is so confusing.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I’m just having real trouble buying that Gamma kills Mastina knowing town!SS still has another watcher. I don’t see how Gamma wouldn’t expect to be caught?

Mastina claimed tracker and sr both SS and Gamma.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I’m just having real trouble buying that Gamma kills Mastina knowing town!SS still has another watcher. I don’t see how Gamma wouldn’t expect to be caught?

Mastina claimed tracker and sr both SS and Gamma.

the bid for 2 shot hitman wasnt concealed, so i think gamma was expecting to be caught by the numbers so maybe they werent worried about being caught out in the kill..?

Nothing was concealed though, because scum wanted us to see what it sold for. If it was concealed, we might be thinking it sold for 300 which points to S_S who bought Watcher, right? Scum wanted us to know it sold for 301, because they wanted us to think Gamma bought it.

Why was cop redacted? I think it was the only one that was.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I WILL say that this is dismal play from Something_Smart regardless of his alignment tho--if he's scum he should know this is a terrible-ass claim that borderline scumfirms him;
If he's town then out-bidding me on the Watcher when I fucking knew how to use it is basically criminal especially with the holster claimed on N2 when we were down one scum and the Ninja was not in play yet and the claimed watch on Smoke & Mirrors is, while plausible to town, also the watch most convenient for scum to claim.

In either case it's bad from him, and I could make an argument for either--but overall I'm instantly putting him in the suspect pool. He may still be town yet, it could be Gamma+VFP, but VFP+S_S could be it as well.

I'm not really ready to make the call on who VFP is scum with, but the play today is to eliminate VFP and then coordinate the best usage of actions, including imaginality's roleblock and Something_Smart's second watch shot.

(I will say tho that overall balance of probability I thing S_S scum > Gamma scum here. Something_Smart's negligence-if-town and the convenience of ease in being scum, not to mention having defended VFP, mean that overall I would favor him as scum over Gamma right now. Something_Smart's play here as a mechanical player is bad regardless of his alignment, but it is much much much worse as town than as scum; if he is scum, he could have reasons to believe claiming may make him town, he could believe that claiming gives him more of an edge than faking having no role, he could believe that the claim is the lesser of two evils, he could make the claim and hope nobody figures out why it's so egregious, etc.; there's half a dozen reasons why he could believe that he needs to make the claim as scum, even though it is a very bad claim. But if he is town, the negligence is borderline criminal in his usage of the role. So while it could come from Something_Smart as either alignment and you can argue it either way, there's more in favor of him making the bad claim as scum than making that bad of choices as town in my opinion. Ultimately, it doesn't matter tho; we're eliminating VFP today, not Something_Smart, so whether S_S is scum is left to tomorrow, not today.)

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Can you share what was in the hood?

sure

Spoiler:

said he had a townread on me and wanted to share his rb target without announcing in thread.

we talked about the mastina kill,
then [after something_smart outed his results] had a long chat about gamma and something_smart.

i originally trusted it instantly because the numbers did add up.

he showed what he was thinking during the night;
scum wouldve bid more on hitman if they could (other scum mustve bid 499+), he was wary of something_smarts claim because of this. though he knew there was a chance something_smart was truthful.

then i started having second guesses about gamma.

talked about gamma possibly being framed, i tried to figure out how gamma couldve been framed. i mentioned susing you around this time.

at this point he had reads something like
-he could see you being possible scum, but liked ur posts.
-thought smoke had bad posts, but would prob be town is gamma was scum
-something_smart could be bussing, but thats risky. felt like watcher wouldve been killed instead of mastina (if watcher was town).

i mentioned i thought of the possibility of something_smart bussing but thought they wouldve just faked a guilty on you instead.
mentioned how smokes posts at this point eased my worries about gamma. this is where i said gamma would prob be scum

the numbers to him seemed a bit planned i think, he said it felt too easy.

he talked about scum lying about bids, he mentioned something_smart and smoke in this post.

i asked if smoke wouldve bussed so early into a game.

he said he could see it, talked about how if he was partners with pooky he would've just told pooky to not post so that they could play the meta to their advantage.
mentioned how ^ is an outside possibility, at this point he said its more likely something_smart and you, ssbm_kyouko > or if hes wrong about gamma, it would be you and gamma.

i mentioned how gamma as town would've prob voted something_smart alot quicker, and mentioned how u didnt seem town based on ur play (d5).

he mentioned how someone used the "voting alot quicker" argument on him before > so it isnt certain.

he asked if its common that scum cant see the bids they hid, he thought if it wasnt common knowledge that this couldve been a scumtell on you (that you knew)

i mentioned how you pushed him not voting cupcake instantly
i asked if gamma did anything to help town, mentioned how something_smart has done more.
i mentioned how you felt like you were keeping options open + trying to please easier to convinced people.
mentioned how im the worst person to ask about what the common knowledge is.

he agreed gamma hasnt done much, if it werent for the watcher result and the hitman bid he wouldve voted gamma based on content.
he mentioned if its gamma, he thought remaining scum would try to get a miselim on him. he thought it wouldve been a big red flag of whoever that person is.

i mentioned how itll be easier if he isnt killed,
mentioned possibilty of if the remaining scum had a hitman they might leave him alone.

[gamma flips around this time]

he wanted to see if a something_smart roleblock will work, didnt think he could have hitman (scum reversing bids seemed too risky).
he said theres no use for scum to no kill in this scenario since that would give us an extra miselim chance.

he said it was most likely something_smart would be cleared, and one of me/smoke dies.

i mentioned how i dont think something_smart has hitman as well,
mentioned how i think ur (ssbm_kyouko) scum, and how i think ull try to get imaginality miselimed.

we talked about how sure i was on this read on you.

hopefully this is allowed..? ill cry if not lol-
hopefully its understandable who said what..?

So if SS knew he was being rb’d from this post, his not townlocking looks even worse because I honestly can’t see why scum!you ever makes this post

[Smoke and Mirrors]

went for cop, didn't get it

dont wanna out how much yet and it probably doesnt matter anyway

[Smoke and Mirrors]

can we all VOTE: short night phase now because I think as of deadline we were on no elim?

I am in so many games, I’ ve barely had time to eat.