KTaNE [game over!]

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VOTE: StrangeMatter

I feel like I would post 20 as scum

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I think the idea to fail defusals by default is correct for reasons catboi explained, but I'm also having an emotional reaction against it due it being counter to the nature of the set-up as well as the resulting loss of my agency lol

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well even if they were mandatory somehow, we'd just intentionally give bad info if we decide we want to fail all bombs by default

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PEDit: StrangeMatters is already out of their scum range by the way, slight townread on StrangeMatters from me.

Baffling read.

^^this

Tigger's iso is trash. Slight townread on Ceph.

weak townreads:
StrangeMatter
Cephrir

weak scumreads:
Lukewarm
GuiltyLion

I don't think I should be townread given what I've posted so far, but calling it "trash" feels a bit extreme, especially if you're gonna immediately put me in a category labeled "weak" scumreads. Why did you choose a word as inflammatory/strong as trash?

(also it's Hobbes not Tigger)

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hey Menalque!! it's good to see you again

how you feeling about this game? seemed like you were burned out on rolling/playing scum last time I saw ya

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PEDit: StrangeMatters is already out of their scum range by the way, slight townread on StrangeMatters from me.

Baffling read.

^^this

Tigger's iso is trash. Slight townread on Ceph.

weak townreads:
StrangeMatter
Cephrir

weak scumreads:
Lukewarm
GuiltyLion

I don't think I should be townread given what I've posted so far, but calling it "trash" feels a bit extreme, especially if you're gonna immediately put me in a category labeled "weak" scumreads. Why did you choose a word as inflammatory/strong as trash?

(also it's Hobbes not Tigger)

Frogster I don't care so much about the answer to this specific question anymore as you've since explained your read on StrangeMatter and I'm holistically townreading a lot of your other content, but to close the loop here did you intentionally ignore this post or did you miss it? because I agree with you that conversation can be a fruitful way to feel out people's vibes and generate intuitive reads, but if that's how you feel and you intentionally ignored me then I'd want to know why you didn't afford me the opportunity when I asked you a question

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I like the VP Baltar scumread

to add my own reasoning, I think 119 is a notably LAMISTy post/question. there's missing undercurrents of thought I would want to see in it, like are people who are wrong about mech town or scum?, why is knowing what you are talking about an important thing to call attention to?, etc. I find this post to be what I look for in a "busywork", "post to fit in" type of post if we're looking for "busywork" posts. And the way he's townreading Frog, I could see as an early attempt to buddy/deflect an extremely vocal player who already suspects him

VOTE: VP Baltar

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I wanna see an updated VC before I add my own heals but I'm thinking Greeting, Frogster, Andante, Menalque feel like appealing picks for me so far right now and will probably heal them in due time with a bit more thought

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VP why are you answering a question directed at the mod that the mod already answered

can you link me to a completed town game or two where you feel you played similarly to how you're playing here? maybe a mechanics heavy game if possible?

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@VP - not to my knowledge, no

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As for your second question, my intent wasn't to ignore your first question or your slot in general, in fact I did see your first question and was planning a response, but I prioritized responding to Andante's big post over your first question because I realized Andante had just become active in the gamethread and I wanted to see if she would respond in real time, and while I was writing my response to Andante I forgot about your question! I'm sorry again and I will try not to do it again

lol you don't need to apologize, I just wanted to clarify explicitly if I was ignored or if it was a mistake/miss

as for the rest, have no fear, the walls will come once I have Things Worth Walling About. I don't have a ton of footing in this game yet

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haven't read up yet, about to do so now, but looked at the latest VC and it seems like a lot of my initial desired experts are fairly consensus so

HEAL: Andante
HEAL: Frogsterking
HEAL: Greeting
HEAL: Menalque

will retract if I notice any issues during the catch up

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Why are you instantly tilted that I've said you can be scum

bad faith question alert

tilt is not scum-indicative

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hi pooky

menalque is the only non-consensus one, I didn't say he in particular was consensus. the other three clearly are

what's town is that I felt he passed a vibe check in the early game and my belief is if he were scum he'd be a lot more tryhard and also a lot more upset

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HEAL: Pooky
HEAL: Titus
HEAL: Catboi
HEAL: Andante
HEAL: Frogster
HEAL: Greeting
HEAL: Praet

I am willing to be bribed for my last heal thing

I like your heals Pooky

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HEAL: frogster
HEAL: Greeting
HEAL: catboi
HEAL: Andante

Why were you scumreading Andante then, dwlee?

The last paragraph?

That people are playing around her like this is actually what makes me think she is scum.

She is actually townier as scum and that everyone townreads her when she is normally a controversial day one slot is very scum-indicative imo

I'm not sure this really tracks. This reason feels more like something that was made up after the fact.

I went back and reread the posts between Andante's first post and your first post. There were, if I'm being generous, 3 [1][2][3] townreads and one possible scumread on Andante before you voted for her.

From whom did you get the impression that people were playing around her?

CSF town

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I'm just powerskimming to get caught up first but so far I'm vibing with most of the seemingly consensus reads so far this game

Luke scumreads make sense to me and I'm down to sheep the case laid out by catboi and others

like that Menalque has the same attitude on page 25

as of page 25 I'm down to vote any of Dwlee/Luke/Baltar

StrangeMatter Frog vote is odd, I have a hard time understanding how Frog can be anyone's choice of "this is the best use of my vote and the slot most likely to flip scum"

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I gave 351 some major side eye

351 felt very not serious to me

Same thought occurred to me but it was followed shortly by 360

HEAL: Cat Scratch Fever

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I liked some of morning tweets mechanics posting earlier but outside of that she's done ~nothing alignment indicative, don't get the townreads on her.

I've actually scumread a lot of Tweet posts because she feels a lot more hedgey so far than I recall from her in prior games

when I was scum against her she was terrifying and I don't think scum would feel terrified of her play so far in this game, it's been timid

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351 was a joke. 360 is unrelated to 351. Also: "it feels weird to make a gamestate read like that," well lemme show you some evidence:

feels hard to buy that 360 is wholly unrelated to 351

like even if 351 is meant to be a joke, you're still reacting to something you (presumably) don't like that Andante posted. I have to conclude that if your scumread on Andante is "growing" it's in part due to a post you just responded to

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Ceph might be scum because they feel the same as usual and they're usually scum. Someone brought up earlier something in the vein of how they aren't playing differently and i liked that

I thought VP didn't really react much to pressure which was the opposite impression I got from him when he was scum threatreing against Auro in our last game

I haven't really played with scum!Luke i just noticed he hit some of the notes that i get when im town and frustrated and everything i say just brings more votes. on the other hand i did not like any of his mechanical posts , felt like pointing out the obvious. I also haven't played with fire

Bell could be scum he's usually obvtown, i don't know Strange, Titus could be, GL maybe, he reminds me of last appearance when he was a little outspoken early then I didn't really notice him again

VOTE: GL

tweet why did you choose to vote me in particular at this point, do you have more confidence in me being scum than your other scumreads you expressed here or were you hoping to get a reaction out of me in particular? the timing rubs me a bit the wrong way with Ceph having

just

voted you and being present in the thread, you say you have reasons to SR Ceph, but instead move your vote away from Ceph to me when I'm AFK

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pedit: I'm voting GL because i think he has a reasonable chance of being scum

also tentative

again no one should really be townreading me for what I've done so far in the game but this is like the most weaksauce reason to vote me, no effort to scumcase anything I posted

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it gave me vibes of him feeling like he needed to come up with a read that was supported by something at that time

I do try to give reasons for my votes yeah

do you disagree with the actual point I was making about Baltar? the only thing I saw you say about him was he seems "normalish"

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I think it's worth considering there's a scum in this heal list and/or Luke's heal list.

I think Praet + Luke/Fire + VP + ?

Maybe GL or Dwlee or someone.

I think Dwlee/Tweet are better suspects than Praet at the moment

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it gave me vibes of him feeling like he needed to come up with a read that was supported by something at that time

I do try to give reasons for my votes yeah

do you disagree with the actual point I was making about Baltar? the only thing I saw you say about him was he seems "normalish"

Hi, did you ever look at that game you asked me to fetch for you?

No I haven't yet lmao

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VOTE: Morning Tweet

VP I promise I'll skim through that game at some point tonight for ya, main thing I'm just trying to see is if the style of asking a bunch of questions and posting random largely meaningless observations (579 another one that pinged me much in the same vein) is fully in line with your town game, seems fire (slash maybe a couple others IIRC?) is vouching for that but just want to check it myself

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Fire person's entrance is not good enough and has some red flags.

what are the red flags? I didn't really have any issues with fire's posts

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hedgey may not be the perfect word for the vibe I'm feeling, I think I'd opt instead for 'timid'. It's less about being unsure and more about not doing anything strongly. justification for the vote on me is one example I called out, this is another example:

Lukewarm sounds kind of deflated. I like the "go through the thread and mark townpings" approach. I've definitely had games (especially harder to parse ones) where that's all i feel like i have reads-wise

although on the other hand Luke felt a bit more disconnected earlier than im used to. He made comments on some of my mechanical posts i had early, but those posts had already been hashed out and the things he was pointing out i had all already known. This could be what others are pointing out I'm not sure.

like this just doesn't say or accomplish a whole lot, if I were scum!Luke I wouldn't feel bothered by this at all. I'll have to go reread the games I remember playing with MT (Jigsaw, Forest Fire) to refresh my memory, but my sense was at least with Forest Fire, that she was onto me early and felt like a major threat to me the whole time

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1. Posted about who they replaced.
2. Posted a reads list they made before they knew their alignment.

isn't this wholly NAI? Like I think it's a given fire made that readslist before they replaced into the game (the timing is too quick for it to be fake), and I think once they've done that then as town or as scum they'd post it. if anything it's ever so slightly +town since it indicates they aren't yet trying to Enact An Agenda, the only real scum-motivation I could see it in is a) it's what they'd do as town -> hence NAI or b) it could make them

look

town.

But again, if you already made the readslist, prior to knowing your alignment, then you'd almost certainly post it as town too. It's not town-indicative, but I definitely don't see how you can think it's more scum-indicative than null

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he was basically a block of ice in PYP

what do you mean by 'block of ice', like he melted quickly or he was unfazed by anything?

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mehh it's just the same people talking, and the same people not talking, idk see yall tomorrow sometime, have a good night!!

what heck, I'm talking now!!

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She's absolutely a monster if she replaces into a game that has flips to work with because she's relentless but I can see her getting confused in a large theme that moves along fairly quickly. She hasn't done anything that makes me think she's town but I tend to give her a longer leash than most because like if she's town then she will be pretty useful later and if she's bad she'll be like obviously bad.

this is fair

I'd go to Dwlee instead if there's support for a wagon there

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hello, I am here and will be around for a bit, still have not read the VP Baltar game, about to read up but will respond in real time if anyone wants to chit chat

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I think fire is a good D1 execution by the way. I'm looking to compromise vote on fire EoD if this VP wagon doesn't take off.

Luke's ISO would be the main reason I would want to lim that slot today but have any of fire's posts moved the needle for you at all? I don't have any idea what scum!fire is capable of but nothing they've posted has felt scummy or disingenuous to me so far

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Why would you care at all if me/Andante/Frogsterking or whomever else was a consensus townread? Why does it matter so much?

I want to heal people that have a solid chance of being bomb experts, no point in vanity heals

and if people were scumreading my most confident townreads I'd want to hash that out with them

however, neither of those situations really applied (other than Dwlee SRing Andante for ???? reasons), so fortunately to me I didn't have to do any of that and could just vote my heals

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I really just think game state is pointing to town consensus being wrong right now

can you explain this statement in FAR greater detail

a) what do you see is the current "game state"

b) what is the "town consensus" opinion that is wrong?

and

how does a) provide evidence for b)?

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Andante you've said a few times you don't TR/scumread the other people that have a ton of votes, can you remind me which ones would you rather not be grouped with

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also who's good at reading dwlee? I think it'd be fun to put them in a group with people who can read them. Any volunteers?

I'd rather Dwlee not be a bomb expert at all currently

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GL is there any reason you can't townsend Menalque for me?

what does "townsend" mean? like prompt him to do towntell somehow?

or are you asking me to unheal him?

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I think his reason for keeping his vote on me is weak, but at least he is trying to come up with something?

did you miss that I switched to MT a while back

maybe that might help with some of your qualms around me not reading your game yet either

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overall I kinda think 1139 vibes like a townie readslist post

I disagree with chunks of it but the level of recall for specific events and the things VP Baltar looks at to put together his reads feels genuine to me overall

he could still be scum but I kinda think he'd be a bad D1 lim

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no greeting, no frogster, no mala, no titus, no strange, no vp, no andres

I agree mala/andres/strange should not be in a bomb expert position at the moment

Titus I wouldn't mind but don't feel a burning need to put her in a hood

VP needs more thought from me

Greeting/Frog I am townreading and think we could trust their intentions in a hood - is this more overall you don't trust them to be town or you don't think you'd work well with them even if they are town?

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"you can't townread cephrir for being the only one to think about this because i did too. but i didn't really since it was a half baked idea"

plz tell me what is wrong with my characterization or what the town motivation is

Lol, Greeting can certainly townread you for it. Just wasn't your idea. Credit where it's due.

Maybe you came to the conclusion independently, idk. Just saying you definitely weren't the first person to bring it up. I think greeting is more town than you, so I'd prefer they have all the information when making their decision on reads. That's my motivation.

This is a perspective slip because of what's unsaid here.

from VPB!town's POV - he should be townreading cephrir for having the same thought process as he does - unless he wants to claim that Cephrir is just plagiarizing him 800 posts later or w/e but that's clearly not his intent as he didn't even state things in the way Cephrir did.

Instead he seems peeved that Cephrir is getting town-read for a post that he already made - the goal isn't actually because he thinks Cephrir is scum - he just wants his own town cred for "saying something similar" which is kind of ????

Like this game isn't about seeing who can score the most town!points for statements about game state - this game is about sorting between bad guys and good guys. VP's entire conversation with Cephrir isn't about sorting Cephrir - it's about saying oh it's unfair Ceph is getting credit for something that I already said sort of kind of - which is not a town mindset.

actually maybe I should pay more attention to those posts instead of skimming

gonna go back and reread this again and give my take on it

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Instead he seems peeved that Cephrir is getting town-read for a post that he already made - the goal isn't actually because he thinks Cephrir is scum - he just wants his own town cred for "saying something similar" which is kind of ????

I see where you are coming from, my only issue is I could imagine it coming from town in his spot if his angle was more "Ceph should not be townread [because I do not townread Ceph]" rather than "I should be townread [because I said something Ceph said]"

you're kinda assuming the motivation is the latter, and it might well have been, but I don't think it could never be the former. You're right it's odd that he's taking this approach when he doesn't fully SR Ceph himself, but he also seems to be somewhat paranoid towards a lot of people overall, especially ones that don't townread him, and I could imagine it as a playstyle trait

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Not "x is town because y is town and townreads x". Forming associations like this Day 1 is a bad strategy as they are unsupported by any hard data as to whom is voting out whom and whom is nominating for bomb expert (which is equated to being a townread in this game). We'll get the hard data once Day 1 is over. Right now this is just constantly shifting and it's not uncommon for mafia to be distancing themselves from one another.

This is not how I formed my townreads, you are making an assumption or misunderstanding what I said

I expressed my townreads (without any reasoning) in 258, it was after I was away from the thread and came back in 833 that I healed them, but me healing them in 833 because they were consensus does not mean that I townread them because they are consensus

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catboi I'd be interested in your Pooky read if you feel you can explain it later, I don't really scumread him but I'm surprised people started TRing him when he ramped up his VP push cause the VP push I think would be really easy for any capable scum to make and I don't think Pooky's argument is especially compelling under the surface

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I like all of Bell's page 53 posting and I'm feeling a townread there now. He has the same sentiments I have about Baltar and I see the point catboi's making about the conviction in scum!luke

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Menalque used to care a lot about mafia and was very try hardy in a bunch of games we played together (I don't mean this in any negative sense at all btw, I can very much be a tryhard too)

but then I think after a year+ of playing super hard, a lot of really strong scum performances, he burned himself out, was getting really frustrated with games, hating playing mafia, and took a semi-retirement.

Since then he's clearly divested himself from trying so hard (as either alignment), which good for him, it's a game and fun should always be the goal, but at the same time my hunch is deep down he still holds a motivation to play well for his teammates at scum and at least turn in a respectable performance, which is kinda why he doesn't play much at all anymore.

so far the vibes I've picked up from him here are extremely laid back / not caring, which is kinda how I feel as well at the moment. I'm definitely projecting to some degree here but this PL has a lot of strong players and odds are most of them are town so I don't feel the urge as town to try really hard yet and put 100% of my energy into this game and I don't get the sense Menalque feels that either. I feel if he were scum he'd be doing a bit more and there'd be a small but detectable degree of frustration in him at a) rolling scum and b) having to try.

I could be wrong and he could be just yolo checking out as scum, but I feel a gut townread there until I see evidence to the contrary

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The problem is that "not scummy/disingenuous" is not a high bar toclaer, and I haven't actually seen anything from them that is hitting me as overtly towny, which is a problem when their slot was starting off from a negative position in my eyes and other people are at least giving me some sense of towniness.

this is fair. I don't have a great reason to townread fire given anything they posted

I liked that they agreed with me on Morning Tweet but I guess I shouldn't really put a bunch of stock into that being town-indicative

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hey y'all, I thought I would check this game before bed but saw there's like 20 new pages and my desire to read all that and post something useful disappeared instantaneously

I'll play tomorrow, should be a pretty laid back work day so I'll start catching up in the AM (8 hours or so from now)

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hey guys, what's going on in this thread

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nah but actually I've skimmed up, I'm fine with voting out Frogster, and he was the one who convinced me to re-evaluate on Strange so I'd currently sheep Andante on a partner read there too though I want to reread their ISO

VP Baltar probably town, still townreading Greeting/CSF/Andante/Menalque, Ceph seems town - everyone else not mentioned here I need to think about and I don't have a strong opinion

that's what I got in terms of thoughts so far. Dislike Dwlee playing for towncred like "I told you Frog was scum!", as if scum has never shaded/distanced a buddy before. Wasn't frogster a fairly consensus D1 townread, if anything it's slightly scummy to suspect a slot that had hoodwinked most of the rest of the thread, feel like Dwlee should know that

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I don't think we should be doing 4p team reads but I'm fine with Frog first and if that flips red moving onto Strange/Dwlee tomorrow

@Dwlee - can you point me to the case post(s)? Either post # or quote yourself is fine

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actually nvm I ctrl+f'd for Frog in your ISO and it's looking better than I remembered

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HEAL: VP Baltar

who else is eligible to heal, one sec

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HEAL: Enchant
HEAL: Bell

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HEAL: VP Baltar

who else is eligible to heal, one sec

Me

we'll see

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actually Frog scum almost certainly hard confirms everyone else in that hood as town right? Assuming he sacrificed himself to take out IC catboi, means there wasn't a better buddy who was worse positioned than he was to take the fall

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It is kind of a mystery why Frog didn't do it in a more subtle fashion though? only thing I can guess is solely to ensure less attention to other buddies today?

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VOTE: frogsterking

i'm going back to sleep

p sure that's E-1

HEAL: Bell

this also still bad btw

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So I expected the bomb to fail because I wasn't sure why the scumteam would swap misty in as an expert and then not fail the bomb, regardless of misty's alignment. I didn't expect it to be all town experts and a town defuser after the swap.

I submitted correct info so that I would know for sure if one of the other experts didn't, and because I townread Baltar. I didn't think scum would be so brave as to give scum!VP Baltar two defuses, if he flips at any point we would fear-fail almost every other defuse so it's not really a winning strategy to get to the "4 defuse" wincon. And I thought if we happened to fail him and he flipped scum, it would give us three a bunch of towncred that scum wouldn't really want us to have.

I'm honestly a little surprised he didn't blow up. I'd like to hear people's thoughts on why scum would swap misty in yet there was a successful bomb defuse. and if TOWN swapped misty in they absolutely need to claim that today.

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Bell gave me some minor pings in the PT, he was asking a few busywork questions to Baltar about whether he prefers playing town/scum, how often VP Baltar posts as scum, which I thought could be fake solviness. I didn't understand why he was assuming the bomb defuse was likely to succeed, and he was expressing suspicion towards me which I thought might have been positioning to push me today when the bomb blew up. He did have one really townie feeling sentiment about being able to outpost me if I'm scum and I try to push him. But frankly the bomb defusing successfully I feel points to him being town again - I don't see why scum!Bell would swap misty into the hood and yet then give correct info and not sabotage the bomb.

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PT people, I'd love to know if you townread misty for any particular reason. I really think that slot is scum.

she wasn't very townie in the PT. took over a day to give info, I said I would treat it as a scumclaim if she didn't before she did. She didn't seem especially interested in interacting with me or Bell, just Baltar.

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the only reason I can think of to swap in a town!misty with town!Bell and town!Baltar (and town!GL) is to foster paranoia and secure Baltar/misty miselims... it's a lil WIFOMy, if misty is scum I don't get why she doesn't just blow up Baltar for a free kill. I guess Baltar softed some kind of venge ability but meh I'd probably gamble on that trade if I were scum in her position instead of giving town a defuse

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overall I just don't see what scum gained from the night actions last night at all, unless Baltar is just scum. but if Baltar is scum why swap in misty of all people

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I'm kinda wondering if Bell is town and was responsible for the swap and was pulling some sort of gambit to test me/misty, that almost feels like a more compelling explanation than anything where scum did the swap lol

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anyway I still need to reread some portions of this game and decide how I feel about everything, I'd probably want to hunt people who were on both wagons today, Baltar gave a POE in the PT of {Andres, Titus, Misty, Dwlee, Mala} and that also feels like a decent place to start

gotta work for a bit but I'll be around to play more tonight

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@GL: I did not put Misty in that solution. As for the rest, I still just think your play is disappointing this game if you're town *shrug*

I think you mistook Baltar's POE with yours?

regardless, sorry to disappoint ya I guess

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anyway I still need to reread some portions of this game and decide how I feel about everything, I'd probably want to hunt people who were on both wagons today, Baltar gave a POE in the PT of {Andres, Titus, Misty, Dwlee, Mala} and that also feels like a decent place to start

gotta work for a bit but I'll be around to play more tonight

I refuse to blame anyone for voting Frog. You shouldnt either.

it's not a matter of blame, obviously most people who voted Frog are town, but we've had two miseliminations with little by way of serious resistance, and more often than not there's going to be scum on those miseliminations

however once I actually went to check it

fireisredsir [10]: Bell, Malakittens, catboi, Dwlee99, Titus, Andante, Greeting, Andresvmb, Frogsterking, Menalque
Frogsterking [9]: Greeting, VP Baltar, Cephrir, StrangeMatter, Mistyx, Andante, Enchant, PookyTheMagicalBear, Andresvmb

the only common voters are Greeting and Andres, which is not as many as I would have expected, so it's not really a useful starting point

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VOTE: Mala

HEAL: VP Baltar
HEAL: Dwlee99

not sure who else to heal or is even eligible to heal, Titus and Strange?

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I also noted that I wouldn’t have needed to claim to get me through yesterday, and then make myself a target by swapping myself into the PT. As a strategic decision, attracting heat when I had weathered the storm yesterday and gotten a claim out (if I were Scum) didn’t seem sensible, but you all have to judge that.

Let's assume you are town, why do you think there was such a frenzy for the fire wagon yesterday as soon as your wagon took off a little bit?

I am Town. I claimed Doctor and there was no NK yesterday. Do you think the Scum held back from firing? Has anyone stepped forward to explain in a different way why there was no extra kill? Like I really can’t make this easier for you.

Scum sometimes push alternative wagons, and after my claim (and some clear resistance from multiple players against executing me), they probably felt they needed to push elsewhere. Frog still tried to bury me by ridiculing my claim. But they couldn’t get traction so they pushed fire relying on a flawed argument from catboi who was clearly trying their best and had a reasonable argument.

Like you can’t fault me for thinking the arguments against fire were reasonable and not argue against all of the other players that also landed there. I’m not hiding and saying I don’t own my vote I do. But you asked me what I relied on for it and when I tell you you say it’s bullshit. Well, it is what it is.

I didn't get to read/respond to this on D2 but I absolutely believe "scum held back from firing" is a more likely explanation than "doc!Andres saved town!pooky". scum only get one guaranteed unrestricted NK, why would they use that on N1 when it's least valuable? and if they use it immediately then they have to be careful about how they use their future ones to avoid potentially giving information on the alignment of defusers.

[GuiltyLion]

Strange is mafia

is this a result or a read

[GuiltyLion]

if VP Baltar is scum, why would scum risk Misty or Bell or myself deciding to blow him up last night? Surely that's the worst possible outcome for scum? Misty gets towncred, they lose a member, town knows for sure that scum has had a defuse and extra NK?

I don't think an extra early defuse is necessarily worth that risk in a gamestate where scum haven't lost anybody yet - if Baltar is scum I would have expected a swap with somebody more widely townread rather than misty.

[GuiltyLion]

I wonder why the scums want

VP Baltar

out so much. This has to mean he's town, because if he were scum, they'd have two nightkills by now and they haven't used any of them. Anyway, thanks for a half-confirmed townie.

No. They would actually have three nightkills by now. As they got one by default.

No. They would actually have three nightkills by now. As they got one by default.

Math 0/10

They'd only have two nightkills if they didn't use a single nightkill, one from the start of the game, and the second from the two defuses that happened.

which made me think back to this - isn't Greeting actually right here?

if VP Baltar scum

, scum would have

two

additional NKs, and possibly three total if they didn't use their original one yet.

There's a small part of me that wants to be like "Strange slipped knowledge of VP town!!", but then the more seasoned part of me that knows this probably isn't a bonafide scumslip. but it's worth highlighting I think

[GuiltyLion]

if VP Baltar is scum, why would scum risk Misty or Bell or myself deciding to blow him up last night? Surely that's the worst possible outcome for scum? Misty gets towncred, they lose a member, town knows for sure that scum has had a defuse and extra NK?

I don't think an extra early defuse is necessarily worth that risk in a gamestate where scum haven't lost anybody yet - if Baltar is scum I would have expected a swap with somebody more widely townread rather than misty.

I'm not voting Baltar unless somebody convinces me why this is wrong

[GuiltyLion]

Yesterday when I was pushing on andres, his incredulity that anyone could possibly read him as scum struck me as quite off. Andres can be prickly sometimes, but he is not unreasonable, and any reasonable person would look at the fire wagon and have some level of suspicion toward him. Obv frog complicated my push there yesterday. On the other hand, we still have no NK, so maybe he doc'ed successfully?

yeah, in agreement with this, that's what I was trying to get at with my 2833. Andres tried to defend himself from pressure by saying:

1) Frog is scum and I'm obviously not partnered with Frog
2) I'm doc and there was no NK last night

and both of these things are pretty easy for scum to fake riff on to project indignation at being accused. The lack of NK is not clearing at all and I'd say is probabilistically way lower odds that town!Andres made a correct save than scum simply chose not to kill.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Strange

I may SR strange... but that's a read I can agree with (for some different reasoning though)

VOTE: Dwlee

yeah umm VP having 2 bombs worries me tbh, and going "frog had value!!! must read into it!!" is not something I really want to deal with... frog just trolled around in the PT why are you implying all 3 of me greeting andres lied about what went on??

But I don't think VP is town, and that's why his groups keep successfully disarming bombs

VOTE: VP

Andante why not vote Mala?

[GuiltyLion]

I can't really play this second but skimming past few pages and just wanna say this feels like a Dwlee town game to me

[GuiltyLion]

probly 4 of these 5:

Dwlee99
Enchant
Titus
Mala
Strange

why is Dwlee in this list

the other four are fine as POE scummy picks but Dwlee does not belong in this group unless you have good points against them

[GuiltyLion]

Strange isn’t scum

Mala if you have time / see this post I'd like you to explain this read in particular

I don't think Strange is especially scummy, but I'm not convinced she's not scum, so I wanna know what lead you to this conclusion

[GuiltyLion]

There really isn’t a reason for the Scum to have withheld shooting last night. I can’t think of a good reason. N1 maybe, but yesterday? The game feels like it’s headed in a wrong direction so why not take advantage to blow up a Town leader? I’m not sure I understand.

hmm

I didn't like Andres D2 posting about lack of NKs but this post feels genuine to me

I do agree a lack of kill last night, especially with knowledge that scum can't multi-kill, feels off

[GuiltyLion]

Besides,

Malakittens

is like the too obvious choice. They have done nothing in the game and barely even posted, scumreading someone for inactivity, lurking and lack of reads is the classic. But why did she accumulate 7 votes so fast? Why not, for instance,

Mistyx

or

Titus

whom I also feel are doing nothing?

I'm starting to feel like I'm being shu nned about

VP Baltar

and the attention is being redirected to the

Mala

wagon instead on purpose. Which makes me question if that wagon is town-led at all.

personally I'm just voting Mala because she already had a bunch of votes and I'm fine with her lim, she hasn't done anything townie

I'd be open to switching to Misty if we wanna wagon there instead, I think she's pretty scummy and confirming her alignment might help figure out wtf was going on with the swap last night

I'm hesitant to lim Titus at this point because I don't think her inactivity is alignment indicative, Titus is perfectly capable of playing/keeping up as scum so probably just genuine IRL busy-ness there

[GuiltyLion]

So the argument is that Malakittens is bad at deepwolfing and that it's just blatant scum? That may be, but if so, is her team bussing her right now? I refuse to believe there is no scum amongst those seven that are voting her right now.

this is worth keeping in mind once you have a Mala scumflip in hand - I would certainly feel pressure to bus Mala if I were her teammate here - but it's not a good reason to scare yourself off of voting the Mala wagon

[GuiltyLion]

I love that Dlee is simultaneously trying to claim credit for nailing frog-scum on D2 while also protesting that they weren't voting for Frogster on D3

w i l d

do you think this is an alignment indicative point

because I don't think it's an alignment indicative point, feels like some gotcha logic

[GuiltyLion]

why are we splitting up this perfectly good mala wagon

Post or die. Those are the rules.

I agree. Did mala post anything useful?

I know Titus is capable of posting useful stuff. That's the difference. Also, we have enough people alive to run them both up. If I can't get Titus wagon support, I'll come back to u bb.

VPB have you played Titus scum? Cause I have, many times, and she has no issues around playing/posting as scum. "Not posting useful stuff" is not a scumtell for Titus

[GuiltyLion]

I assure you that mala is a more than capable town player.

I’m also a damn capable scum player

Your point

this is scummy

Ceph's point was just that "not being pro-town/useful" is a bad reason to prefer a Titus vote over a Mala vote, and Mala jumps in to be like "but I can also play better than I [currently] am as scum" to try to suggest his vote is bad. It doesn't have any actual meaningful reason as to why we're to believe Mala is town, it doesn't interrogate whether Ceph has any additional reasons to scumread her aside from activity. She's just trying to dunk on Ceph to invalidate his read while not engaging with the actual context at all

[GuiltyLion]

ok I'm caught up and hey I am gonna give a quick n dirty readslist

town: {CSF, Bell, Ceph, Dwlee, Andante, Greeting}

prob-town?: {VP Baltar, Andres, Menalque}
nothing has pushed me either way: {Titus, Strange}
kinda scummy: {Pooky, Enchant}

scum: {Mala, Misty}

I'm really only feeling confident about the top and bottom tiers, middle is waffley. I do not like a lot of Pooky's most recent pushing on Dwlee. Enchant is making bad lazy votes.

CSF made a really good point in 3248 about misty's comment on Mala - I am having a hard time squaring Misty's "Mala is scum and scum are bussing her" as a genuine, real, townie thought when Misty is not also indicating real support for a Mala lim. I'd almost prefer Misty over Mala solely on that point + me thinking the swap last night had to benefit scum in SOME fashion, but I am not going to derail the Mala wagon while it is leading.

[GuiltyLion]

This is a correct interpretation of the game state and also explains some of my posts this day phase that show clear frustration towards players that fall into that group.

look man I'm sorry a lot of important stuff happened while I was away from thread on D1 and sometimes y'all are hyper posting while I'm away and so I've felt too detached so far to earnestly power-town, I'm here now and feeling like I got my head in the game and some motivation so let's discuss all the points I just made and what you think of my reads

[GuiltyLion]

i don't think i've ever read a dwlee scum game where they posted a single complicated thought in my life

yeah same lol that's exactly why I'm just like "I'm not TRing them..." half the ISO is literally about me... like...

they're so obssessed with you

this better not be some sort of bullshit scumtheatre cuz I will be heartbroken andy if you lied to me

one last thought

I don't think I can explain this particularly well but this post also sets off my scumdar

basically because I don't really believe Pooky actually thinks at all that Andante is scum doing scum theater with Dwlee here. the last line feels like the kinda thing scum like to post to buddy someone like Andante and give an impression of being uninformed. I feel town!Pooky is less likely to genuinely entertain a Dwlee-Andante S/S theater idea, but it's easy for me to imagine a scum!Pooky posting this with the explicit intent to stay off Andante's radar

[GuiltyLion]

I don't understand this top town ranking like at all, I TR Andres over Greeting, Andres is a doc claim, said he saved bell last night, no kill happened honestly I see no reason for maf to not try and kill town reads off, the doc claim is probably real, maf isn't killing andres cause so many people sr him?? not sure, but I don't like these reads AT ALL

Doc claim doesn't mean a whole lot to me in a game this large

also I'm not

not

townreading Andres, I just am not as confident as I currently am in the higher tier

why should I not TR Greeting? Haven't seen anything disingenuous in their posts at all and several instances of a lack of mech awareness that indicates uninformed alignment

and yeah I'm currently reading Misty/Mala maf - I highlighted things I thought each of them did that were scummy in my string of posts preceding and I have absolutely nothing from either of them that has struck me as town-indicative

also "confidence" is a relative term there, I'm not saying confidence as an absolute "yes I'd bet the game on these reads" but rather they're more confident than the blob in the middle.

[GuiltyLion]

all your posts with like pooky and dwlee are odd, like, pooky said some stuff that makes me think he has the same thoughts on dwlee as me, you think Dwlee has been towny this game? GL, I'd LOVE for you to show me the posts that make you go "dwlee does not belong in this group"

Mainly Dwlee has been active and pushing a lot of their own reads/opinions whereas the other 4 I really struggle to remember significant stances they've taken

Dwlee's attitude does not vibe to me like one that is trying to be townread, one that is avoiding conflict or coasting. My impression of Dwlee's scum game is more centered around being inoffensive and difficult to find reasons scumread. Dwlee here doesn't care about either of those things, I think they earnestly believe in what they're pushing, especially with the off the grain reads like scum!Andante early game or the random CSF scumread

also like... you should think about the

actual reasoning

I gave on Pooky and respond to that, not just "he agrees with me on Dwlee... TOWN!!" - bad read there Andante

[GuiltyLion]

yep I'd love a more fleshed out explanation of why Pooky is town here

[GuiltyLion]

especially when I just called out a specific post where I think he's buddying you

[GuiltyLion]

all your posts with like pooky and dwlee are odd, like, pooky said some stuff that makes me think he has the same thoughts on dwlee as me, you think Dwlee has been towny this game? GL, I'd LOVE for you to show me the posts that make you go "dwlee does not belong in this group"

this suggested to me that you townread Pooky explicitly because he agreed with your read on Dwlee.

if you're not townreading Pooky then why are you grilling me for calling out how Pooky has skeevy reasoning to shade Dwlee, lumping Dwlee in with non-posters and also doing gotcha logic on them?

[GuiltyLion]

like I don't know how you read the Dwlee-Pooky Dialogues on pages 125-128 or whatever and come away with the take that Dwlee is the scummier one there when Pooky is instigating a scumread on Dwlee over NAI weaksauce points and Dwlee is doing nothing manipulative just rebuffing it without any noticeable fear or fake reasoning

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion can you explain your Cephrir read? I'm in stumped on reading them and I wanna know why you're townreading him.

Also, I want you to explain your read on me because right now I just cannot think of how people just haven't leaned either way on a slot like mine this far into a game.

Ceph - this is more of a gamestate/mindmeld read rather than specific things I can point to in Ceph's posts that I wouldn't say come from him as scum cause he fooled me pretty well in our last game together. But mainly I feel I see pro-town motivation in all of his heals and votes this game - I especially like that it's apparent he's thoughtful about how to use heals (D1 arguing to put capable null reads rather than burning through 8 obvtowns, unhealing Frog when he disagreed with Frog's philosophy on how to treat defuses, healing and unhealing me D2, etc). I think the D3 Mala wagon is likely to be on scum and I like that Ceph has consistently called attention to when it is fizzling or people trying to start Alternate Wagons, I feel it's unlikely he does that as a Mala partner. Also just holistically there hasn't been a single Ceph post I've felt struck me as disingenuous or agenda-motivated, and several where it's exactly what I would have wanted somebody post whether pushing a read I agree with or constructively directing thread conversation towards a point/topic I think is useful. Not a slot I see as worth indulging in paranoia over until it's clear he's attempting to steer things in an anti-town direction.

With you - I just don't really remember anything you've done this game. My impression of your ISO is you've been around to share thoughts and ask questions, but not in an especially impactful way. But tbh some of that might be a function of a few of my absent periods from thread. Let me ask you in return, what do you think you've done to push the gamestate in a direction that is closer to eliminating scum?

[GuiltyLion]

Titus do you want to be a bomb expert tonight? What are your thoughts if any on the current group of {VP Baltar, Dwlee, StrangeMatter}?

[GuiltyLion]

Well I think it's not a great idea to explain. I think its fairly obvious what I do to push the game state towards eliminating scum is though its unlikely to be as impactful (at this point I've accepted that I don't influence games as much), but I do think pointing out things that seems really off to be town are usually scum indicative

I think maybe we have different expectations or ideas around town play vs scum play

in rereading your ISO currently I do think you come across as genuine/transparent in expressing yourself, but the thing is I have no idea whether you are capable of emulating that as scum and so I need votes and real wagon/consensus-building to feel good about a read on you, and your votes/participation in wagons or scumreads so far has not struck me as something that feels like it's definitively coming from someone uninformed who is trying to vote out scum

and to be fair it isn't striking me as especially disingenuous or meant to push miselims either, it's just kinda non-impactful to me overall, and I don't have history with you to look for other personality/thought process tells

[GuiltyLion]

I'm ok with being a bomb expert but not particularly desiring. Whatever the group wants.

if you don't want to be bomb expert then I'm not going to vote you for it today. not sure I feel the lack of agency here is scum-indicative but it's certainly not a good townie feeling

[GuiltyLion]

HEAL: StrangeMatter

[GuiltyLion]

overall I see where Andres is coming from, but I do feel the fatalist attitude and reflexive scumreading is not a great look.

I'm struggling with the Titus point because it's definitely a questionable claim to say she was going to post content & obvtown and it was cut off prematurely, yet then not have that obvtown content available for us today here and now, but at the same time I can imagine a town!Titus earnestly believing and making this push.

I don't like Enchant's 3316, that's nothing more than an attempt to goad Andres, but I don't think it's necessarily scum-indicative either. so far I haven't really gotten anything useful out of this, I'd maybe like Andres to show some work developing more townreads cause reactive scumreading everyone suspicious of him is too wide of a net

[GuiltyLion]

I kinda still think this is flipping scum? how would Mala know a track result is town pr and not scum pr / thwarted NK?

[GuiltyLion]

Why were dwlee and strange experted?

the only other options were Titus and Enchant

also I think dwlee is town

[GuiltyLion]

Doesn't help that Dwlee gave two sets of information, and the second time they were clarifying things up.

why would scum who planned to secretly blow up the bomb with bad info risk calling attention to themselves by giving two answers / needing to clarify? if anything this points more to town than scum IMO, and I don't like the way this is phrased as shade without making the accusation directly. So you think scum!Dwlee just bungled their delivery of faulty info?

[GuiltyLion]

HEAL: Cephrir
HEAL: Cat Scratch Fever

I need to think about a third heal, possibly Andante but I'm not sure about it

VOTE: StrangeMatter
tbh though I'd be most confident going after misty today. I think her "scum are bussing Mala" was a lil TMI and meant to shade the whole wagon for post flip, again she should have been also voting Mala if that were her true belief

[GuiltyLion]

Someone said SM was being TMI with the accusation that scum must be bussing, GL said it I think.

I don't think it's unreasonable to suspect that scum were bussing Mala, that's not what I'm saying. I'm more talking about the actual delivery/context under which misty expressed it:

if you want my actual insight

bell town
confused about why everyone kept mentioning waiting for titus input earlier then entirely ignored her andres push? probably slightly scum indicative for andres

gth i would say the vote dump on mala includes a bus

there's no evidence of any critical thought as to

who

would be bussing mala here, just shotgun shade on the entire wagon without any reasoning. It also indicates full confidence Mala will flip scum, yet she never voted Mala or gave any indication that she wanted to. In fact she voted CSF later, despite Mala wagon leading, so if she thought Mala was scum she threw her vote elsewhere why? was she MORE confident in scum!CSF?

it just looks like a weak response to a buddy getting wagoned, it's not consistent with how I would expect town who believed a) scum!Mala and b) Mala being bussed would play or behave.

[GuiltyLion]

@Dwlee - CSF first pointed it out in 3243 and 3248, so she deserves the credit more than me, but I totally agree with it

[GuiltyLion]

And I mean by GL interaction, I mixed up what I meant, what I did mean was I just don't like how they're going about my push on Dwlee.

Can you answer my question? Why do you think scum!Dwlee re-clarified their solve if they planned to give a fake one? Doesn't that serve no purpose other than risking making themself look suspicious?

I would imagine scum giving bad info would just do it cleanly, but you suggested Dwlee giving "two sets of instructions" was scummy and I don't follow that reasoning or why it's convincing to you. And maybe can you explain your read on VPB?

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion, why do you think that Dwlee wouldn't bus Malakittens? In fact, I really want you to explain your Dwlee townread.

I am feeling reactive to the way this question is phrased - I don't believe I ever said anything about whether Dwlee would or wouldn't bus Mala? Rather I just don't think Dwlee is scum, so therefore I don't think they bussed.

I've played a handful of games with Dwlee across alignments and I don't think this vibes to me like their scumgame. I think the confidence they had in Frog scum on D2 to the point of gloating about it isn't as natural or easy to fake as scum. I think their D1 scumread on Andante isn't a position scum is likely to take. I think their responses to Pooky's pressure was very townie in nature, and I haven't really felt them being disingenuous at all D2 or D3 at a time when it feels like a lot of people were throwing shade at them. And I think if they wanted to blow up the bomb on Andres, they wouldn't go through the rigamarole of giving bad intel and then clarifying that bad intel afterwards

[GuiltyLion]

3685 and 3686 are the first Pooky posts I've liked in a while

I currently wanna do Strange->Misty and then reassess from there, if that's 2/2 on scum then last scum probably feeling some low WIM right now

[GuiltyLion]

I currently wanna do Strange->Misty and then reassess from there, if that's 2/2 on scum then last scum probably feeling some low WIM right now

Is the Strange -> Misty order assuming Strange flips scum?

yeah, but I could go for Misty first here. I am starting to get cold feet about Strange skimming through the most recent pages - not enough to never lim, but I kinda vibe with Cephrir, feeling like it's hard to feel especially good or certain about scum!Strange

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not maf lol

I been on Misty since the start of the game

[GuiltyLion]

like if we're at town!VPB scum!misty, why wouldnt misty just let VPB defuse and become focal point of game and misyeeted?

its better for scum to have townies be misyeeted than blown up by a bomb

esp if VPB!Town already defused a bomb on night 1, then Misty!scum has a lot of incentive to let VPB!town defuse again and give them a NK and it creates town paranoia on VPB and a misyeet possible in the future

this makes sense to me

I also want to point out again that Misty was Not Townie in our hood, she didn't talk to me/Bell much at all, just interfaced with Baltar, and delayed giving her info until within the last RL day. I told her if she didn't give info I would be treating it as a scumclaim

[GuiltyLion]

page 159 - Bell isn't eligible to be nominated

I kinda want to nom Pooky if Andante doesn't want to be an expert
HEAL: Pooky

[GuiltyLion]

I want to post something useful at the moment but I genuinely don't feel like I have anything to say

I tried to talk myself into worlds where Baltar/Dwlee is scum over Strange but I can't find a convincing argument for it. I know people touched on this a while back but I agree with the idea that scum!Baltar is better served openly saying he's going to blow up Andres rather than lie about it, and I also still don't see why scum!Baltar makes himself a defuser and swaps in a town!Misty as expert in the N2 hood.

[GuiltyLion]

right... isn't that an issue for D5? you wait for me to come in here yelling the explosion death isn't my fault? Titus wants a hood to solve in, many people here are good with giving Titus a hood to solve in. The question is just "with who?" I'm totally good with solving with Titus. I need to reconsider my reads, I also would like to solve in a hood, so as long as titus isn't gonna be too busy with RL... I'm down!!! but we need a 3rd, and given my options, I prefer Enchant, enchant has some knowledge and wisdom I'd love to hear, so I really do want enchant as the third. I was literally having a good conversation with enchant here, not sure why you suddenly think I'm pulling names out of thin aire....

why not Cephrir or Pooky for third?

I've been loving talking to enchant today

can you point me to the dialogue with Enchant that you enjoyed?

[GuiltyLion]

right... isn't that an issue for D5? you wait for me to come in here yelling the explosion death isn't my fault? Titus wants a hood to solve in, many people here are good with giving Titus a hood to solve in. The question is just "with who?" I'm totally good with solving with Titus. I need to reconsider my reads, I also would like to solve in a hood, so as long as titus isn't gonna be too busy with RL... I'm down!!! but we need a 3rd, and given my options, I prefer Enchant, enchant has some knowledge and wisdom I'd love to hear, so I really do want enchant as the third. I was literally having a good conversation with enchant here, not sure why you suddenly think I'm pulling names out of thin aire....

why not Cephrir or Pooky for third?

I've been loving talking to enchant today

can you point me to the dialogue with Enchant that you enjoyed?

@Andante

I struggle to see the value to putting two slots that have not given a lot of useful content (Titus/Enchant) as Experts over two more confident townreads

[GuiltyLion]

Andante are you ignoring me?

[GuiltyLion]

right... isn't that an issue for D5? you wait for me to come in here yelling the explosion death isn't my fault? Titus wants a hood to solve in, many people here are good with giving Titus a hood to solve in. The question is just "with who?" I'm totally good with solving with Titus. I need to reconsider my reads, I also would like to solve in a hood, so as long as titus isn't gonna be too busy with RL... I'm down!!! but we need a 3rd, and given my options, I prefer Enchant, enchant has some knowledge and wisdom I'd love to hear, so I really do want enchant as the third. I was literally having a good conversation with enchant here, not sure why you suddenly think I'm pulling names out of thin aire....

why not Cephrir or Pooky for third?

I've been loving talking to enchant today

can you point me to the dialogue with Enchant that you enjoyed?

@Andante

These questions

[GuiltyLion]

I have since said I'm good being with Cephrir, and rest of that im ignoring yeah

ok, well then I'll make my position clear, I looked at your conversation with Enchant and I think you saying you've been "loving" talking with him today is a weird remark and doesn't feel very genuine to me

[GuiltyLion]

Did Mistyx attempt to persuade to kill VP in the hood? (Note: Check context.)

She made a bit of a show about needing to sort him, asked him to link a past scumgame, asked him questions about his D2 vote and his scumreads (this is all heavily paraphrased), then gave her solve and went silent. Barely talked to Bell or I at all except in response to some questions Bell asked her early in the hood. No real attempt to convince us to blow him up when we both said we'd give correct info

[GuiltyLion]

Andante you seem a lot more interested in using catboi's D1 reads rather than your own

having Dwlee scum over Strange here just feels motivated to avoid a Strange vote, Dwlee is town far more of the time than Strange here

[GuiltyLion]

I want Andante's head now, seems she'll throw out token scumreads towards both Strange/Misty but then find reasons to vote literally anywhere else, which was the same story on D3 with Mala

[GuiltyLion]

and the whole Titus/Enchant hood thing was just weird

[GuiltyLion]

@Titus I was talking about Andante's suggestion to make you and Enchant experts with her, sorry that wasn't clear

[GuiltyLion]

HURT: CSF

for the record I have CSF as slightly more town than Pooky (though I TR them both and it prob doesn't matter), but I kinda like the idea of a possible Menalque/CSF/GL hood for tomorrow and regardless I def want CSF in any hood tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

HEAL: Titus

let's lock it in

[GuiltyLion]

Who is eligible tomorrow? Will Bell be eligible? Feel better there than Menalque atm

yah Bell is also eligible and yeah I wouldn't argue with him taking a spot whether it's from Menalque or myself

on that note, do we think Andres N2 on Bell was definitely a save? I haven't seen a lot of discussion on it but with Andres flip in hand it feels a lot more likely

[GuiltyLion]

I felt all three of Pooky/Ceph/Titus were townie in the hood and I think if scum in any of them were trying to get rid of me they could have just openly scumread me and blown me up without much consequence

I think Baltar is scummier than Dwlee

[GuiltyLion]

Baltar and Andante, can you both talk about your reads on each other?

[GuiltyLion]

I think Baltar is scummier than Dwlee

Go on

Also, why do you think that scum picked you to defuse?

I've said a handful of times why I townread Dwlee, this doesn't vibe like their scumgame to me and I also think they've been remarkably genuine and straightforward in their reads/thought process and reactions under pressure - like everyone's thrown a ton of shit at Dwlee and I don't think I've seen a single instance of them twisting words or crafting a narrative to suit an agenda.

I think scum picked me to defuse cause it was a win win for them - either I get blown up and out of the way, or they can use a successful defuse to foment paranoia about me being scum and the scum count possibly at 3 refusals. See Andante's posts lmao, which I actually predicted might happen from her in the PT last night

they could have just openly scumread me and blown me up without much consequence

Actually, expand on this too please

I still think anyone unilaterally using the expert role to vig someone who isn’t a p consensus SR is kinda scumclaiming, so this doesn’t figure to me. I think you’re broadly p townread this game, so I’m not seeing how there would have been likely no consequence from them killing you

I don't feel broadly townread - I haven't tryharded all that much and I'm not like power leading on scum this game. I think scum would feel there's enough paranoia around me to rely on people either blowing me up or limming me without too much scrutiny. at least at this stage

[GuiltyLion]

that nigjt 1 argument of “why whould scum team send vp to the top person SRing him makes perfect sense to me, and after last night, it’s like, I didn’t think GL was a huge TR nor was he bottom of the poe, I think GL was scum and they just solved their 3rd bomb, it is the only way this makes any sense

I predicted Andante could spin me being saved like this

no he was pretty level headed for the most part

im wondering if i was the dummy getting the wool pulled over my eyes in that pt

then yeah, there’s no way GL was town.

Also, this post suggests that if I had freaked out and fought hard to survive that would make me town?? Am I to believe that's the read you'd take from that situation?

I'm not gonna lie I have some past town games where I got all riled up and defensive, but I also can tell when I'm being pushed by scum or when I'm being honestly sorted and no one in the PT was pushing any bullshit - there was really nothing that I could have even emotionally reacted to.

[GuiltyLion]

I think people are forgetting scum have to earn NKs from successful defuses by players?

it's possible they just didn't have a kill last night if Andres hit on a save

[GuiltyLion]

I vote we wait for a little more clarity on Titus' plan cause I don't think I understand what she was suggesting

but I also am fully reassured Ceph/Pooky are both town now

[GuiltyLion]

You're fully assured that they're both town,
why?

hood stuff

[GuiltyLion]

that nigjt 1 argument of “why whould scum team send vp to the top person SRing him makes perfect sense to me, and after last night, it’s like, I didn’t think GL was a huge TR nor was he bottom of the poe, I think GL was scum and they just solved their 3rd bomb, it is the only way this makes any sense

seriously though did I not predict this exact angle from Andante

[GuiltyLion]

no no I do not think Titus is scum at all, let me be clear. She is town

[GuiltyLion]

I think Cephrir's reflexive paranoia and jumping to conclusions is what makes him town there, not that he was correct in his assessment

[GuiltyLion]

I'm at work and have lots of catching up to do, will be around to play for sure this evening. To restate my positions and avoid making this a contentless protege post - I think VPB scum, Dwlee town, other two scum are two out of three of {Misty, Andante, Menalque} - Andante scum equity very high given how she's trying to chain me to VPB and make people paranoid about me, Misty just feels like scum, but if one of them is town I see Menalque being the only other slot I'm not sold on being town. Review the Andante/VPB interactions, they go at each other constantly but never actually take significant sway to get each other limmed in the earlier days, looks like textbook distancing to me.

Skimming last page to see Andante is still on the shtick about me being scum with a third defuse - if I'm a defuser again you always blow me up obviously. But if she's trying to lim me over Misty tomorrow that's a no-go

[GuiltyLion]

GL in the hood makes exactly 0 sense there from a town!GL perspective. like, yeah no, that's scum throwing thir middle player in, winning a defusal

like this is a joke, right

the obvious town explanation is either I get blown up (win for scum) or scum can make this exact argument to misyeet me later

[GuiltyLion]

I'm game with that, I just haven't read like 15 pages so I'm not gonna vote yet

[GuiltyLion]

yo I'm here and reading up for real now

[GuiltyLion]

I'm probably not going to respond to much in the prior 20 pages until I've read most of it and can double back to touch on stuff that wasn't addressed in some form or another. but I'm also here for real time interactionz if need be

[GuiltyLion]

I've had several avatars during my time here, I had some Porter Robinson Worlds visuals for a while, I was rocking Nathan Fielder for a bit, but settled on Hobbes cause he's the best

I also like that the avi makes me look inquisitive

GuiltyLion just came from an internet random username generator haha, it was some kind of random adjective + random noun thing and I generated and handful and liked this one the best

[GuiltyLion]

I find andres' doc saves weird and unlikely to be kill targets unless scum are really incompetent, but fair enough on the count. Where is the other kill? If you're saying I'm scum, that just speaks more to the point I'm making.

Maybe there's a

third

protective lol

More seriously, maybe scum were roleblocked or maybe they're saving the third kill

More importantly, I don't think the lack of NKs should be that surprising from your POV, and I think it's a possible slip

!! good posting from CSF, honestly whenever I'm away from thread just outsource my thoughts/reads to her

I also think Bell being saved N2 makes a lot of sense, he's kind of obvtown and universally townread, hard to get rid of for scum, so I agree from a town!VP PoV the fear mongering around missing kills reads very off

p-edit: any kind, tigers will do anything for a tuna sandwich

[GuiltyLion]

Town is gonna lose this game lol

Mena do you know something the rest of us don't? Because if you do, now would be a great time to out it

VP BELIEVES DWLEE IS TOWN SOMEHOW BECAUSE "IT'S TOO EASY FOR THEM TO BE MAFIA."

LIKE WHAT

I mean basically this

I don’t think scum more or less ever takes that line in a 1v1

ok I know I said I probably wouldn't respond to much but I lied it's just easier to rapid-fire takes when I have them

I wanna know if Menalque ever explained this cause I feel like it's an easy angle to take as scum? Like if scum!VPB wins a 1-1 on Dwlee and Dwlee flips town, he's just toast tomorrow. Why not stall his or Dwlee's flip as long as possible if it can prevent town from achieving useful info? Winning the 1-1 doesn't really do a lot for scum!him other than delay his own death by a day, pushing elsewhere allows for more confusion especially via another miselim

and if anything it might get him townread enough to get out of a 1-1 situation, which you'd be falling for here

[GuiltyLion]

You should take a step back and think about what I would actually gain from approaching the game this way as scum (nothing)

and like he even explicitly tries to invoke it for towncred here

[GuiltyLion]

if VPB flips scum here...

like GL is never defusing another bomb.[no1 in their right mind would let him defuse another bomb]

I am never defusing a bomb.

If the scum really r doing 4 defusal win condition it would have to be someone extremely townread as the third partner

ok now that I'm getting to this post in context

if VP flips scum, I personally know it would be safe to defuse another bomb, but I think people without knowledge of my alignment would be smart to play it safe by just not defusing no matter who it is, I think that's just kinda correct from a neutral view. so I would expect probably scum are just gonna throw townies in there and let the experts blow them up and we probably just have to deal with that, it's the cost of letting VP get two defuses

[GuiltyLion]

I think with context I actually like Andante's posting/reads a lot more

I get the paranoia about me being a VPB partner and I don't think scum!Andante really has a lot of incentive to clear Dwlee? I mean maybe that's setting herself up for endgame but I think she's too townread, if we get to ELO we have to ask why Andante is still around, right?

Main thing is just not to let her defuse any bombs in case this is a bus on a buddy, but I think I'm wrong on scum!Andante and I feel Menalque's positioning has been a lot more convenient than hers. VPB/Misty/Menalque is the easy answer but I feel like it fits the puzzle pieces we have so far here

[GuiltyLion]

The implied visit was an attempt to secure an accurate read on VP. The hood established a crumb section for me since I claimed a cop in our thread. I could not actually check anyone. However by implying I had a result on whichever Dwlee or VP got ran up, it would be more likely the result was correct.

Our crumb system had me document who I "checked". I deliberately started with my first post outside of that range.

If my hood had a scum, they would waste roleblocking or kills on me.

hence everything i said earlier. i thought titus was claiming roleblocked when she crumbed something that wasn't in our code and therefore gl or pooky was scum

yeah, I think Pooky trying to be like "chill Ceph let's wait until Titus explicitly confirms she was roleblocked" was a townie reply too

I mean maybe Pooky is like god tier manipulator but my instinct is that it was an uninformed reaction

[GuiltyLion]

Titus likes a big brain play as scum

I remember when she was on (and maybe the driving force behind?) a scumteam in nomination mafia that made the first set of nominees the entire scumteam

lol that was a fun gambit but it screwed us over so hard in the end because there was no way to flip two of the three without it suggesting that the third was also likely to be scum

[GuiltyLion]

I'm a compulsive vengeful defuser. Anytime I am nominated as defuser, if I get blown up, the mod will send me a list of names of anyone who gave me incorrect information. I then must choose to kill one of them.

I am thinking about this claim and it doesn't feel like a mechanically sound role as town, right? Because how are scum supposed to play around this? The only way it's not a guaranteed 1-1 is if multiple players in a hood submit false info, which would be really hard to intentionally orchestrate. You basically have to be limmed or NK'd to be dealt with safely, and that's if scum have knowledge of the role

I would have been more inclined to believe just a straight up vengeful, but the "list of names of who sent incorrect information" feels too OP for it to be a town role

I also agree with Dwlee that you should have baited a blow up on the second defuse instead of threatening us that you would kill us if we didn't send correct info. like this would be a role that's meant to be blown up in a hood but you pushed against that fairly strongly

[GuiltyLion]

HEAL: Bell
HEAL: Andante
HEAL: Enchant

I'm not sure about Enchant but I think fairly decent odds he's town and I agree with CSF around saving a strong townread (her) for tomorrow. at the moment I don't want Menalque as an expert

[GuiltyLion]

I'm also thinking that Andante is a level of weaker townread where I'd actually much rather her be the expert than the defuser, like if she's scum she would do more damage as a defuser than as an expert

[GuiltyLion]

I'm going to vote VPB I was just assuming we didn't want the day to end yet in case there was deliberation over experts or whatever

are we just trying to end the day at this point?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: VP Baltar

[GuiltyLion]

it's not that detailed of a claim

[GuiltyLion]

I have too little free time to car that much about mafia.

you're also top 3 in postcount this game

[GuiltyLion]

I'm responding to the point he made of "I don't have enough time to come up with a fakeclaim!!"

like come on Andante, he's clearly playing hard this game regardless of alignment

[GuiltyLion]

VC stuff? just coloring names?

[GuiltyLion]

Dwlee posted a much more thoughtful long ass case at the very start of this day

[GuiltyLion]

Yooo guys I'm at a music festival this weekend so I am effectively V/LA until Monday, I'll have time to skim through and maybe post a lil bit in the late evenings or mornings but it won't be effortposting

I've skimmed through the thread and I have gathered CSF/Mena CC each other, Andante was totally making everything up lmao, and people wanna yeet Misty. I'm totally good with that and will vote Misty once we have an up to date VC and good experts picked

Also I think the CSF tinfoil case around scum collectively misunderstanding the setup is pretty good too lol

HEAL: Cat Scratch Fever

[GuiltyLion]

HEAL: Dwlee99

[GuiltyLion]

HEAL: Bell
HEAL: Pooky
HEAL: Andante

VOTE: Menalque

[GuiltyLion]

actually I guess we should wait to see if CSF jailed Menalque? he might be cleared then right?

[GuiltyLion]

Unfortunately my role is lazy so it will not work if Misty flips scum

ooh wait nvm lol forgot about this

[GuiltyLion]

yah I think correct play with the defuses from here on out is to defuse for anybody who has not defused before and blow up anybody that's already had a successful defuse. That way we let town control the majority of kills while ensuring scum can't win by the 4 defuse wincon

[GuiltyLion]

here I'll give a response:

Then I have to have decided to: crumb only one role, and it’s one that happens to fit with what we know about setup balance

can you explain how your crumb was a crumb? I didn't follow how saying there's a scum in a group of four is some kind of ironclad crumb we would be expected to see and one that you could never ignore or walk back from.

Not bothered to crumb any other possible fakeclaims for lategame me as scum, when there’s no reason not to have other available backup claims as more setup info is revealed

similarly, if this:

largely for postgame credit i'm gonna call ~1 scum in {frogster, VP, andante, bell} for this thing

This is a crumb

counts as a crumb then like virtually anything in your ISO could be a crumb you could pull out if you needed to, as far as I'm concerned. Unless I'm missing something obvious about how this is a crumb that can only signify babysitter.

Taken positioning on Baltar that as various points *just makes me look bad and does not help me longer term*

Is the argument here that scum!you would have bussed VPB strongly or something? What would be the most useful stance for scum!you to take on Baltar?

Decided that despite being willing to try hardish this game, as I am today, that I would wait until AFTER incriminating myself through partner interactions to do so, instead of, oh, idk, claiming a PR result to try and defend or hardbus, either of which would have given me better optics for today

This is maybe the best point in your favor, but your WIM has been erratic all game, you were absent for a lot of D2 and D3 when town was kinda just eating itself alive over Frog/Andres

There’s also my actions that make considerably more sense viewed through the lens of being a town PR: hammering fire on D1, deciding to just rofl your case because I foolishly somehow assumed that a modicum of critical thought would be applied in this game and that my PR along with early crumb would make me very obvious town

I feel like this is all scummy stuff - no explanation needed for why lolhammring an unclaimed player is scummy, Dwlee's case was actually quite thoughtful and worthy of a more serious response than "lol", I don't see how you can earnestly believe this is an obvious town game from you

[GuiltyLion]

Bell is lock town for me given the N2 hood - we elected VPB/Bell/myself as experts and scum swapped VPB to be the defuser and put Misty in as an expert. Why would they do any of that if Bell was scum? Also, Bell in that hood was clearly not aligned with either Misty or VPB

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like Pooky's trajectory on Baltar was pretty much the same as mine so I don't really see how it's a scum-indicative trajectory. Baltar felt fairly town during D2 and D3 when he was one of the most involved players in the game. And the mechanic arguments Pooky was making around forcing scum to make him defuser again felt sound

[GuiltyLion]

and also I still fail to see why scum!Pooky wouldn't have just blown me up on N4. Scum has been really hurting for NKs/explosions, it would have been easy for him to say "GL isn't townie, I'm not going to help defuse" and not face any major consequences, especially once I claimed VT in the hood. why keep me alive instead?

[GuiltyLion]

there's also the mechanics point of we have a small point of evidence in favor of town!pooky (doctored on N1 when no-kill) and a small point of evidence for scum!Menalque (jailed on N4 when no-kill), neither is conclusive since we don't know when scum used their NKs but it's worth weighting in favor of limming Menalque over Pooky

[GuiltyLion]

hmm hmmm hmm

that crumb is a lot better than I had realized

why is Enchant town in your book Menalque? and Andante your strongest TR? I TR Andante but I don't think she's the slot I'd bet the game on being town, her associatives with a lot of the flipped scum aren't especially clearing IMO

[GuiltyLion]

I think my list at start of day would have been like

Menalque -> Enchant -> Andante -> Pooky -> Dwlee -> Bell -> CSF

but yeah like Pooky I'm kinda getting cold feet about Menalque here. I also want to reread cause there's several portions of this game that I never paid super close attention to

[GuiltyLion]

at the same time, I still think CSF's case on the scum team all not understanding the nomination of experts vs defusers is weirdly compelling

did Menalque ever explain the "I wanna be defuser" comment?

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like the only person who would kill Cephrir here is Menalque. Does anyone have a refutation of that?

I'm growing more and more tempted to switch to Enchant

[GuiltyLion]

whoops, that is an old post I was thinking about replying to yesterday but then didn't

[GuiltyLion]

I'm really confused by what scum were doing on N2

so scum's swapping role hasn't flipped yet

why swap misty into the experts is what I'm not getting, if they were already going to swap VPB into the defuser role? was it to give misty more towncred short term after VPB doesn't blow up? because that seems wildly short sighted given that they then used VPB to blow up andres -- why not put misty in again there

yeah this honestly still makes very little sense to me, it's not at all how I would have played it myself. I speculated on it in the hood last night and I think the plan was to either have:

a) misty bus VPB and make herself look townier that way
or
b) misty help boost consensus on town!VPB to secure him another defuse

Bell and I both expressed early townreads on Baltar and said we would give correct info, at which point Misty did a little dog and pony show of 'sorting' Baltar before eventually giving a solve not too long before deadline. so I think had Bell or I indicated more suspicion, they probably would have gone a lot harder on a bussing approach between the two. but overall it's still kinda weird since I don't think scum really had a chance at the 4 defuse win with the way they went about it

[GuiltyLion]

UNVOTE:

I'm want to engage tryhard mode and reread a lot of D1/D2/D3 again. Stay tuned for that today/tonight in between bouts of work

[GuiltyLion]

but yeah Menalque much like you are constantly asking about Pooky, I would really love like a truly convincing case from somebody why Andante is town. The best point in her favor is all the fake JOAT claim stuff, she claimed accurate results and used it to help town lim scum rather than secure a miselim so I get the idea that it's ~ probably ~ ++town, but I don't think it's impossible to come from scum?

The main thing holding me back is I feel like her read on Dwlee pivoted from scum to town very suddenly, she claimed it was a result that caused this - which we now know it wasn't - and then all her post-N4 VPB interactions looked to me like distancing where her primary goal was to look unaligned with him. A lot of her early game reads were very wack to me and she has been constantly trying to throw suspicion on me throughout the game

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Dwlee

dwlee and strange have to be the next 2 flips. no reason to ever not flip both

and I need Dwlee flipped before Mistyx cause there's a strong thing catboi pointed out that they're not partners, which I'd agree with

VOTE: Dwlee

dwlee and strange have to be the next 2 flips. no reason to ever not flip both

Flipping Morning Tweet would give a lot of context to the game at that point.

i'm tryinggggggggggggggg

we have to flip Dwlee

VOTE: Dwlee

my reads change too much for me to be town, and at this point no one even thinks I have a decent read.

Dwlee for sure has to go tomorrow after this flips town

VOTE: Dwlee

I've decided I'm not gonna encourage the likely town lim, and instead I'll be voting mafia, also yeah, asking me for a claim here? lmao right... not gonna happen

no. I TR nothing about Dwlee. Dwlee has only significantly changed their playstyle after pooky and I were like "dwlee has done 0 solving"

oh I hope strange flips town

Just got here.

Oh I will.

I'm fairly certain you flip town lol but these people...

These are all the Andante posts on Dwlee/Strange immediately prior to Strange flip

then the next day, she comes in voting VPB and saying she has a town result on Dwlee

now that we know she's a VT

Why did her read change??????

[GuiltyLion]

I don’t really think Andante is good enough scum to fake defensiveness about their decisions.

I don't understand what this means? scum!Andante in my experience from Holiday Dance was very defensive and prone to AtE

[GuiltyLion]

what were you thinking of saying to this btw?

just that I don't think Ceph is a particularly weird kill, he was obvious town. Could see anyone as scum making that kill really, not exclusively you. But then I decided to wait and see if you were going to say anything

[GuiltyLion]

so uh my reread didn't happen yesterday sorry about that I'll try to do it today

in the meantime

@DWLEE

can you look at my point about Andante randomly changing her read on you and claiming it was due to a result? IMO that's a far worse 180 than what you're calling out from Mena here

Menalque feels town. Wrong but town. Can we all PLEASE revisit Andante I'm begging I see everyone writing her off as "obvtown" and it freaks me out

[GuiltyLion]

Pooky what do you think about Andante 180ing on Dwlee and claiming a result despite every post of hers the day prior saying Dwlee needs to go before Baltar and that Strange was flipping town

why did her read change

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Dwlee

dwlee and strange have to be the next 2 flips. no reason to ever not flip both

and I need Dwlee flipped before Mistyx cause there's a strong thing catboi pointed out that they're not partners, which I'd agree with

VOTE: Dwlee

dwlee and strange have to be the next 2 flips. no reason to ever not flip both

Flipping Morning Tweet would give a lot of context to the game at that point.

i'm tryinggggggggggggggg

we have to flip Dwlee

my reads change too much for me to be town, and at this point no one even thinks I have a decent read.

Dwlee for sure has to go tomorrow after this flips town

I've decided I'm not gonna encourage the likely town lim, and instead I'll be voting mafia, also yeah, asking me for a claim here? lmao right... not gonna happen

no. I TR nothing about Dwlee. Dwlee has only significantly changed their playstyle after pooky and I were like "dwlee has done 0 solving"

oh I hope strange flips town

Just got here.

Oh I will.

I'm fairly certain you flip town lol but these people...

Why does VT!Andante's read on Dwlee flip so dramatically after Strange flips town if she truly believed any of this

[GuiltyLion]

yeah so she pushed Dwlee over VPB until it was obvious VPB was going down, and she explained away her switch in position by pretending to be an investigative

she's not hardtown unless I'm missing something

everyone keeps just saying it but nothing in her ISO is hardtown

[GuiltyLion]

when has she even bussed this game

[GuiltyLion]

Malakittens [9]: Dwlee99, Cephrir, Cat Scratch Fever, PookyTheMagicalBear, GuiltyLion, Andante, Andresvmb, VP Baltar, Enchant [HAMMER]

Andante pushed a bunch of other wagons before finally giving up and landing on this one, I remember I even called it out at the time 2931

Also that post you quoted didn't lead to her pushing either VP or Misty for several days??? I look at votes not words

[GuiltyLion]

like she posts 3720 then spends the day shitfighting with Dwlee and insisting to lim them before Misty or VPB?

[GuiltyLion]

she also has basically said nearly every slot in this game is town/scum at some point or another, you can find an Andante quote with whatever read you want

ok, so she didn't do a simple single trajectory on her teammates, ergo she didn't bus, why are you saying she's town for bussing

[GuiltyLion]

GL has literally started tunneling me since last night, can GL be maf? like, there's 0 reason to even think I'm maf here...

explain why your read changed on Dwlee after the Strange flip

[GuiltyLion]

like, can we just vote me out if people wanna play the Andante!Maf game? cause this game has just genuinely been annoying me since N1...

ATE

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Andante[/voet]

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Andante

[GuiltyLion]

literally all my actions point to me being town.

which actions

[GuiltyLion]

you think scum!me is pushing you and you decide to vote yourself??

[GuiltyLion]

GL, why do you think I’m wrong on pooky? Did you read the spoilered post?

I actually haven't read the spoiler post yet lol, I'm just coasting off my prior reasoning for town!Pooky. I'll read it and give you a response in a bit but I fundamentally just don't vibe with why any of y'all think he's scum

[GuiltyLion]

when I literally asked to die last night, and you still decided to solve the bomb truthfully. I said if I was so SRed, TO KILL ME AND GET ME OUT OF THE GAME...

also on this, it's just objectively correct to defuse somebody who doesn't have a defuse yet and wait for the scum NK to get more info

I mean I guess we could have used it like a vig shot as Dwlee mentioned but that's worse for the game than coming into today and evaluating and then making a case if I think you're scum so everyone can engage with it

[GuiltyLion]

you also didn't ask to be blown up lol, you said you'd understand if we did but definitely didn't ask to be blown up