Large Normal 238 | Weiqi, Baduk, Go | Endgame

[fireisredsir]

And they're all dead aren't they?

(Sass without checking)

yeet was one, and yes, he is dead. im sure it was bc of vp and has nothing to do with his role. dragons was at the time. galron was. april was louder than she is today and convinced people off him.

[fireisredsir]

Fire, if I flip town, will you stop sheeping Nero and listen to Titus?

acting like im sheeping nero when we both know i have more reasons than nero does is kinda :///

but i will reassess things ofc

[fireisredsir]

I'm a much higher value asset to town. If you're going to take a chance by repeating this bad wagon AGAIN today, which is very much what you're doing, you risk less by limming Nero first. When you're wrong and I flip green, you've burned someone who actually has the ability to see through the nonsense happening, and would have essentially been confirmed town with a Nero scum flip. I'm very confident my theory about D2 is close, if not correct.

im pretty confident it's not. so if that's what you have to offer then i don't think you're that high value of an asset to town. i wasn't really planning to vote you today at first but i think that case was pretty off and i expect better from you if you're town

[fireisredsir]

@DV, Heated frustration = passion = lean town

it can also come from maf who think they were caught for the wrong reasons

[fireisredsir]

ok VP if you're town help me out here

you say that if you flip town then i should work with titus and follow your theory. but i don't trust titus and don't think your theory is accurate. so. if im right on that, then you've left me with nothing useful. if you're town, help me out by considering what your reads would be if instead your theory is wrong and if titus is maf

[fireisredsir]

ok VP if you're town help me out here

you say that if you flip town then i should work with titus and follow your theory. but i don't trust titus and don't think your theory is accurate. so. if im right on that, then you've left me with nothing useful. if you're town, help me out by considering what your reads would be if instead your theory is wrong and if titus is maf

answer this pls VP, i genuinely really really want to know what you think on this if you're town. i might need your flip in order to trust it but there's no downside to you. guaranteed i will carefully consider anything you say here so the more you analyze the better

if you're maf you can feel free to ignore it lol

[fireisredsir]

Dude, why do you think you're more correct than me when I've been wagoned for 100 pages?

people's read quality usually goes down when they're wagoned

thanks for the answer ig, i was hoping for a better one but appreciate you giving something at least

[fireisredsir]

I'm not sure why you think I'm so bad at this game lol.

i don't. that's why i think it's more likely that you're just maf

[fireisredsir]

So you think I'm bad if I'm town here? I hope upon my flip you reconsider that I am probably just closer to right, and to not wagon people over personality

not that you're a bad player but that you haven't played to the standard i expected. i don't think you're right. close to right, maybe? could possibly be nero, but i think cape is more likely, and it could be frog.

im not wagoning anyone over personality

[fireisredsir]

Why are you defending Nero all game? It does not make any sense. Your read does not make sense on his play. He has not done anything remotely town this game.

he reads like town who was thinking independently, found a read, and is confident in his read and that reads like town nero to me. scum nero i think would be have a different approach, with more appealing to others, going with the flow, ok to lim a scummy looking town like wu rather than getting paranoid about it and pushing back on the people sheeping him. i also think he's right that you're maf so i have no reason to suspect him. if you flipped town i would be more sus of him, but the other reasons im leaning more town still apply

[fireisredsir]

Titus is correct on the play though. There is no planet where Titus and I are buddies. You could claim she is scum trying to score points on my flip, but that would require admission I'm not scum.

this is the only reason im hesitating tbh, she is playing like you're town. maybe it's all just a huge wifom "i would never do this as scum partners" but idk

[fireisredsir]

Frogsterking - scum?
Scorpious - town
Save The Dragons - town?
Nero Cain - town?
DeasVail - ?
Titus - ?
Enchant - eisbfoejwbdkfjdneldj
Galron - town
fireisredsir - town
Eyes without a face - ?
VP Baltar - scum?
April Ludgate - scum?
Cape90 - town

Someone who's good at the economy help me budget this

have less question marks

[fireisredsir]

nero what are the chances we can pull off a switch to titus

and if so can we ever trust VP again

also 100% chance VP says no to this idea as either alignment

[fireisredsir]

ok ok just checking

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Titus

[fireisredsir]

titus prob just TMIing, and yet still pushing for vp to get limmed

can we just get this instead

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Titus

eyes prob votes me over VP so your vote effectively make me the leading wagon.

if eyes doesn't sheep me on titus (he should) then ill switch back

[fireisredsir]

titus is pushing for a vp flip over a Nero one despite the wagons being close at 5-4, probably bc both are town and she knows a vp flip will make her look better than a Nero one

[fireisredsir]

titus is pushing for a vp flip over a Nero one despite the wagons being close at 5-4, probably bc both are town and she knows a vp flip will make her look better than a Nero one

In what world are both Nero and I town? Highly unlikely

the one where titus is maf and nero agrees with me that she is, and she positions herself to look good on your flip but only if you're town

[fireisredsir]

titus behavior here just makes no sense from town pov. she's not solving. it's all positioning and political

april pls come back

[fireisredsir]

k well vp is either maf or so deep in the pocket that he might as well be. gee i wonder why titus wants to keep him alive

VOTE: vp

[fireisredsir]

yes frog it prob is deas

[fireisredsir]

let's just not end day and wait for april to come back. i can't lead for shit

[fireisredsir]

im bad at setup spec but 4 plus a traitor is possible imo

[fireisredsir]

ive been assuming 4 so if it's 5 or 4+1 then that is uhhhh not good

[fireisredsir]

holy crap i thought i posted more in this game 22 posts wow i'm probably scum

dragons crumbing traitor y/y

mostly kidding but also kind of not

[fireisredsir]

wiki says for a traitor to be normal, maf team knows a traitor exists but not who it is, and traitor knows who the maf team is

[fireisredsir]

Nah I don’t like how Titus keeps arguing 0 scum in the hood

if titus is maf then she doesn't know who the traitor is. but if there is no groupscum in the hood she would probably assume the traitor is in there, i think

[fireisredsir]

If that's accurate, what does that tell us?

we should not base any assumptions off of a random comment that might have just been a joke. buuut if we did, then april town

[fireisredsir]

VP i don't get why you decided cape is town

[fireisredsir]

I think he reconsidered on me at a time when he could have easily just pushed me as scum.

Weren't you in the people who shouted me down when I was scum reading his wu hammer?

yea i was, i thought his stream of consciousness case on you was towny cause he does that all the time as town. but he's kinda been coasting on that and most of his posts after that feel either more constructed or they're just making small catchup comments and questions. like his posts make too much sense and he's just kinda floating around. thats scum cape

and i thought his reconsidering on you was actually kinda scummy, cause as someone who thought you were scum around the same time he did, I do not think you started looking more towny at the time he said you did. but maf wouldn't know that, they'd just see you posting a lot and figure you're probably making yourself obvtown.

[fireisredsir]

UNVOTE:

if vp is willing to work with us here

[fireisredsir]

Ok, right. See that from my perspective in where I'm town, and you can see how I think he is not actually doing anything this game.

Who else is he truly pushing? What has he shown progression on in his thoughts toward the game? What utility has he provided to town?

if nero thinks your maf then i think he is playing just like how i would expect town nero to. from what ive read, town nero tbh isn't very high utility to town except that he has p good reads sometimes. but he just kinda sits there and yells that his reads are maf. he's independent and doesn't really work with people, and he is very stubborn and hard to move. but maf nero does work with people, he compromises, he tries to appeal, and he takes the easy mislims when he can.

he also does have other reads, he thinks titus is maf (which is +++town nero btw), he's talked about his opinions on the progression of game state with malc, galron, april, titus, and others

[fireisredsir]

Maybe there is a shot to lim scum today fire.

please, go on

[fireisredsir]

Is this first hand meta you have or you're going on what???

not from games ive played mostly, i just read a lot of games and that's the sense i get

[fireisredsir]

@fire-pretty unlikely I am going to vote Titus. Where else is your head at that we can maybe talk about?

deas, cape maybe. i don't want nero, galron, std, tene, april. i don't think an eyes or scorp flip is going to be very useful here altho they could be scum. enchant will either shoot someone or die before endgame so that's not a good flip. frog, eh, idk, not really a fan of that wagon.

looking at that tho im running out of scum candidates so, hmm

[fireisredsir]

Why do you not want StD though?

i thought he was towny until i remembered the comment i brought up, but even if he is traitor that's prob not a great flip. and i still think he's more likely town

[fireisredsir]

some thoughts

1) i think it's really risky to not flip in the hood today. we might have a better chance at hitting scum if we flip someone like deas, but if he's town, we've gotten nowhere. and if the whole hood is alive at elo there's no shot we win tbh
2) i think if scum april hard pushes malc yday, she has a plan for today. if her plan was to disappear and let someone else lead, then i think she's partnered with someone else who is active and talkative and can lead instead (possibilities include VP, titus, maaaybe nero if VP is town, and if im thinking objectively, prob me)
3) there's no way the scumteam is all people who are lurking today

[fireisredsir]

it is real life for april but even without that she said she was going to take more of a backseat today

[fireisredsir]

1) i think it's really risky to not flip in the hood today.

Why unvote me then? You're so confusing.

bc i don't want the day to end yet, mostly. and you seem more willing to work things out today

[fireisredsir]

i want to see what april and deas have to say. eyes was in the middle of catching up. and i think the longer that scum need to dance around and figure out how best to position themselves, the more likely it is they make a mistake and people start to notice

[fireisredsir]

i actually think there is pressure on scum rn and that they would like nothing more than for the day to end before they have to take a stance

[fireisredsir]

Fire, how do we get the lurkers to take a stance with the lim locked on VP/Nero?

i don't think the lim is locked there

[fireisredsir]

@fire - I just want you to realize that Frogster's only pushes this game have been Fua/Enchant, Yeet, Galron, and me.

Not only is this a very small number of people for frogster to push (last town game with him, he went after almost everyone in the game at some point), but there is a nonzero chance these people are all town. Like, if you're buying that argument from Nero about me, Frogster looks worse.

yea i know. the two sudden wagons on him this game tho both look kinda sus to me. but he could still be scum

[fireisredsir]

3183, 5605. both were like immediate 3 votes. both involved you and the datisi/titus slot following you, interestingly. i had forgotten who the 3rd vote was in the first one, but it was yeet ig, so less sus

[fireisredsir]

Ok, so very small wagons. I think your main deal is the titusiti slot, but I feel like the suspicion there is due a lot to scum!vp. There is a world where she and I are both town

my suspicion of her is unrelated to my suspicion of you. i think she's looked a lot more sus than you for most of today and the end of yesterday, and if she is scum i think you're actually more likely to be town due to the way she is encouraging your lim while positioning herself to look good off a townflip

[fireisredsir]

I didn't start thinking about this as a possibility until Frog brought up "VPB is trying to tie me together to him so after he flips, people will think I'm the partner." I have a question for everyone, did any of you guys think about the possibility of Frog and VPB as possible scum partners? Like I said, I didn't.

can you link where he says this? i don't remember the context

[fireisredsir]

judge it based on the fact he's been pushed the entire time, not overall. that's fire holding too high of a standard that aren't able to be lived up to.

And none of VP's reads have flipped either, so that's also prejudging his reads. Don't love this post on an overall level, especially considering you stated it could possibly be Nero/Frog, two people he is pushing. Nero's been pushing him for a long time too.

i wasn't saying he was playing poorly due to his reads. i was referring mostly to other reasons but we don't have to get into that again cause i think we're past that

[fireisredsir]

ok yea that is a v odd thing for frog to think there, i def would not have thought it looked like that at all. i don't know if them being partners is the only conclusion to make from it, but i can kinda follow the logic

[fireisredsir]

what changed from yesterday where you were saying VP was def town?

[fireisredsir]

i think i would slightly prefer cape to VP at the moment

[fireisredsir]

can you give me your town titus case, april? i don't see it

[fireisredsir]

This would also be horrendous scum play by me if I were scum antagonizing a town vig.

so if in theory we later learn that someone who is scum was antagonizing the vig... do you think that it was likely a bus?

and yea fua was scummy af before the claim and even after it

[fireisredsir]

yeet was TRing me? i think he wanted to vote me actually

[fireisredsir]

VP is probably more info but i think cape is more likely maf rn

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Cape

[fireisredsir]

literally just openwolfing bc too many people tr her holy

[fireisredsir]

in what world does someone who says she will vote anyone to save VP
who says she has him as her strongest TR
who literally has zero attempts to solve cape's slot in her iso, just a couple mentions of a townlean

in what world does that person vote VP over cape here

[fireisredsir]

like anyone who is town, I beg you, read through this progression and tell me that comes from town. this is scum titus who is BEGGING for a vp flip despite her saying that she will vote anyone else to save him and that she strongly townreads him. she even asked eyes, one of her strongest scumreads at the time, to vote with her on VP to end the day. how do y'all not see this

Spoiler: titus

Titus you voted VP yesterday, what's making you not want to vote him today?

My VP vote was not based on his play but based on in thread events and prior wagons. Now that I'm invested, I'm voting on play.

Fire tene and myself surely all can’t be “agency captured”.

Why do you feel this way?

Where is the cognitive dissonance?

Is it simply you TR VP?

I answered the cog dis above.

I feel strongly that VP is town. While I doubt you're all agency captured, you are led astray. When you post things that don't jive with my read of the thread, we need to figure out who is wrong if they are agency captured or scum.

Why Cape? Does it not bother anyone that I am the only person tring vp?

It’s starting from facts namely if you’re town every wagon D1 was on town
If VP is town and Galron is town then every wagon for the entire game has been on town

Then who is scum in that set of facts? It’s assuming what you want me to and asking broad questions.

Town cannibalizing its loud vocal players strongly indicates pride. Namely, slots are getting scumread because they oppose other vocal townread slots.

How many people contributed to today beyond saying VP is a good/ok elimination? There's far too many players that sat back and let this elimination go through. Scum have no interest in saving VP.

Frogsterking - A few questions to me. Otherwise, no real contribution.
Scorpious - Random vote on Cake and wanting to die.
Save The Dragons - Sheep and leave.
DeasVail - FoS and then VLA
Eyes without a face - Prodded said nothing
April Ludgate - Included to be fair. No real push.
Cape90 - Barely here, but he arguably could be excluded.

A good bulk of your scum are in here.

this game really makes me think of that time I hard pushed one of Titus' buddies and she hard defended them + attacked me

???? I'm leaning town on you. How can you say that I'm attacking you here. That's not consistent with what's happening.

Also, who am I hard defending? VP? You think that I go to this length to defend a dead man walking when the best response is to shut up dead buddies?

Yes you’ve been hard defending VP all day

Yes. If I was scum with VP, I'd have him shut up. Reads only give town more to work with. Particularly the rule of 3. If VP is scum here, I'll eat my hat.*


*Not a bet, just a confidence expression.

I feel it's wrong to want the day over with but I kinda do. I don't see a way VP is saved, he doesn't want to be here, he's given final reads and I don't see what else we learn. Fighting for fighting's sake only hurts us.

I would like to resolve VP today, if we really can't get him Titus is fine but VP should have been flipped yesterday. All his stuff about being a good hunter and a net positive for town is just bluster. Don't let him fool you.

While I disagree with a VP elimination, I know he can't live until elo without a clear. A clear is unlikely to happen with yeet's flip. I'd rather admit I lost the argument and try again tomorrow than drag the town through a screaming match that is likely to fail and demotivate us further without a scumread of my own. In the rare event I am wrong, then I fully expect to be vigged tonight or eliminated tomorrow and I've made my peace with that. I think game health needs VP dead no matter how much I disagree.

Eyes, thoughts about VP and ending this day?

titus prob just TMIing, and yet still pushing for vp to get limmed

can we just get this instead

I'm not pushing for VP to get eliminated. I just can't herd cattle to get any of my suspects wagoned. I'd literally vote any of them to save my town core. That's Mama Bear.

titus is pushing for a vp flip over a Nero one despite the wagons being close at 5-4, probably bc both are town and she knows a vp flip will make her look better than a Nero one

Literally everyone else is avoiding a comment on Nero. There are plenty of fake votes on VP from slots such as Deas. If I could get Nero, I'd take it in a heartbeat. It's just not happening.

Are scumreading eyes are not popular anymore and everyone sheep instead...

I'm just saving VP. I'd kill anyone but you Galron or Math to do it.

titus behavior here just makes no sense from town pov. she's not solving. it's all positioning and political

april pls come back

No. I have solved a chunk of the game. VP April Galron Math and Enchant are my core even if they don't or can't work together. I think that's enough to trap scum, even a deep wolf.

If you're willing to see that VP is town, then VP might not be the automatic elimination. We're starting to talk about the game as a whole. It's a long shot but we have scum in my pool.

That's incorrect. While I townread VP, I'm not alone. There are people voting with me and/or wanting not VP. There's people sheeping me like Scorpious. Eyes is wanting not VP. There are people not voting like April.

I mean about scum not being in the hood.

I'm not certain there are. I townread everyone in the hood. Could I be wrong on one? Absolutely. That's why I'm not resisting but documenting my objection. People can support opinions by disagreeing by defending me as town without actually agreeing by Titus is saying that Titus is town but wrong. It encourages people to keep me, and thus my voice, alive.

You’re the only one who thinks everyone in the hood is town is my point. You’re actively pushing where scum likely aren’t.

I laid out that scum are just as likely in the hood rather than out.

Fire, how do we get the lurkers to take a stance with the lim locked on VP/Nero?

Then just vote VP math and I'll vote VP and we can end the day. SCorpious and VP will follow.

VOTE: Cape

Fuck it

We need to prove April and VP scum

And if I am wrong and VP is town everyone wins

This just is hard to process on so many levels.

It’s simple

I am tired of fighting

Tired of the negativity

And just done

So April and VP agree on Cape and it’s in the hood

So it’s pretty much we hit scum in the hood today or prove VP scum.

And April if Cape is town diverted from VP twice

So then it checks them both

Flipping someone rarely proves someone else. You're directing the charge today. Flip who you want. If VP is actually scum, flipping him would be harder. We could leash the vig in this situation. That might be helpful.

So we follow your theory. You don't get distracted.

VOTE: VP

[fireisredsir]

scorp sheep me im obvtown

[fireisredsir]

and also right, probably

[fireisredsir]

Is it bad I want to not lim in the hood right now?

extremely

[fireisredsir]

you know what, let my lim go through, I think it confirms Nero as mafia becasue look who swapped to me.

Maf are desperate and it shows

please expand on how it confirms nero maf based on who swapped

please expand on how maf are desperate when they're winning and most of town is tired and annoyed

[fireisredsir]

im ok with settling for vp and will switch back if needed but i think it's cape/titus

[fireisredsir]

i have no idea what frog is talking about for a lot of his posts. is that maf indicative? idk, maybe

[fireisredsir]

im ok with settling for vp and will switch back if needed but i think it's cape/titus

I kinda think that’s bad. I don’t like how ther was resistance earlier but now I vote Cape VP is now fine

there's not enough people willing to see cape/titus for it to go through, i think

[fireisredsir]

I think what’s happening is more a power struggle

Whichever mini clique isn’t getting their way starts being negative

So whichever person I push it will never seem like enough people

Because the people who hate it will rapid post how that elim sucks and so whatever

and sadly i think a lot of the people pushing back and forth on each other are town

[fireisredsir]

Which is like ?? given the fact they have pocketed VP like this entire time.

yes... they have.... wait, do you think titus is maf? I'm confused now

[fireisredsir]

Titus should be very low on your scum reads when I flip town. Like, what is her motivation here?

Yeah, you give me pause on Titus, who I thought could be scum from me reading last night. Kinda don't see them as mafia now

this is the only post i can find from cape where he gives a read on titus

[fireisredsir]

why say they've pocketed VP if you don't think they're maf?

[fireisredsir]

"yes... they have...." = "yes, they have pocketed VP." but with lots of pauses bc im confused

[fireisredsir]

UNVOTE:

[fireisredsir]

i don't know anymore

VOTE: VP

[fireisredsir]

cape how did you go through all that on titus and then have her land basically in null

[fireisredsir]

maybe it is just nero

[fireisredsir]

Is there anything I can say or do to stop this hideous wagon on VP from going through?

well the alternative is prob nero who you also townread

[fireisredsir]

and frog i would not get too attached to the idea of a serial killer. i think it's v unlikely. and i don't think it would be titus anyway if there was one

my guess is townsiding means, mafia is winning rn, and if they get too far ahead then serial killer would prob lose. so if they existed here, they would want to play on the town side of things and hunt mafia to even things up more

[fireisredsir]

im happy to see deas is back to saying the same things that im thinking. if april's insistence that there was 1 scum between us was a maf ploy to tear us apart it was very clever and it also worked

[fireisredsir]

not sure why you suspect me, Fire

the gamestate doesn't really make sense to me if vp is maf so im considering other possibilities

but idk if any of those possibilities really make any more sense

[fireisredsir]

idk if i said it but it is one of the possibilities I've been considering lately so maybe you just read my brain

[fireisredsir]

sure why not, ill hate myself either way

VOTE: nero

[fireisredsir]

imo titus is playing a scumgame that april should be capable of recognizing and it concerns me that she doesn't. like 5999 and 6008 are deeply unsatisfying to me

[fireisredsir]

i thought it was cape but that was like a whole 24 hours ago

times have changed. wars have been fought. hearts have been broken

[fireisredsir]

Math will certainly instavote in elo.

You think math actually lives to elo?

Better question is why you all think tomorrow is elo.

obviously we have 2 groupscum and 4 traitors

[fireisredsir]

*runs away screaming*

very relatable

why does 15 players left feel like elo

[fireisredsir]

my main fear is that like... if vp is town i would like to have him around to talk to and help solve this. but maybe the game will be too tainted by the number of people who think he's scum for that to be useful anyway

[fireisredsir]

talk to me about how you see the gamestate and how a scum VP doesn't make sense. Why were you voting VP if you thought he didn't make sense as scum? How do you go from Nero is ++++town for scum reading Titus to voting me?

titus is my strongest scumread rn and has been for a while.
1) scum titus play today doesn't really make sense with vp scum. feels like she is TMIing vp town for most of the day. i think it's more likely that I was wrong about vp than that im wrong about titus. i also think that there would either be a stronger attempt at a counterwagon if vp was scum, or he would have just been bussed already and shut up. this whole situation where he is going to die but he has been talking and solving with people for a while just doesn't make sense to me if he's maf, unless it's a maf team who is very confident that they can set themselves up to look good on a vp scumflip. but i don't think anyone has really done that so idk
2) ive still voted him at a few points bc of wavering levels in my own confidence in multiple factors: the value of his flip, the likelihood that im letting scum vp slip away again, the possibility that im reading the gamestate wrong
3) i reread some more of your scum games and you engage with and attack and suspect more of your partners than i thought you did before. so if im basing it off the titus read, then i prob shouldn't be. i also started townreading both vp and cape more than i had before, which makes suspicion on you naturally go up. when i reread your iso with those thoughts in mind i find a few of the reasons I used to tr you to be less convincing, and a few of the reasons that others sr you to be more convincing. but it's not that confident of a read individually, more of a poe/gamestate read

[fireisredsir]

yea we can just end it ig, it's not going to be anyone else at this point

[fireisredsir]

vp you're just a straight up town ascetic neighbor?

[fireisredsir]

yea yea i will

[fireisredsir]

So what are these "convincing" reasons?

idk you haven't seemed very solve-y lately and you're pretty stuck on vp. like i kinda townread you for doubting yourself on the wu wagon bc i know you think confidence is towny and expressing doubt gets scumread, and that you act accordingly. and then i figured your vp thing was just you being stubborn. but i feel like it's gone kinda past the point where i can give you the benefit of the doubt, and starting to feel like you're projecting a confidence to try to look like a tunneled town

[fireisredsir]

11th hour Nero CW, not suspicious at all

then let's see who joins! it'll be fun!

[fireisredsir]

bc i know you think confidence is towny and expressing doubt gets scumread, and that you act accordingly.

naw that's really butchering what I said.

I told Greeting that a lot of players do see confidence as towny and doubt as scummy but I never said that I specifically try to follow this strat

i mean based on my reads of your games it looked to me like you kinda do

[fireisredsir]

hmm i mean regardless of vp's alignment i feel like it was objectively valuable info to see who joined the last minute nero wagon. but okay

[fireisredsir]

but math is such an easy scapegoat since he's conftown

hands are tied! can't do anything about it, sorry guys!

[fireisredsir]

Nero before Titus pls.

we'll see

[fireisredsir]

yea nero seemed like he would have been a major lim candidate for today... unless that's the vig kill and the maf kill got blocked lmao (or enchant is maf and they're gonna pretend that's what happened)

[fireisredsir]

ok so i was thinking about this, and hear me out here... at first i didn't really buy that April genuinely thought the vp/frog/tene solve was a good one (cause it wasn't)

but

i think scum april would be smarter than that lol. like there's a few people saying "hmmm idk if i trust you" and math saying "let's follow you and see if you get us a scum" and i think like 95% of the time there scum april gives them a scum. i think scum april, knowing alignments, would be way less likely to consider the vp/frog solve (cause where do you even come up with that if you know vp is town) and use it as a basis to flip reads completely on vp. is that a thing? am i allowed to townread someone bc I think they'd be better at the game if they were maf? cause i kinda do

[fireisredsir]

anyway

VOTE: Titus

[fireisredsir]

Yeah, I'm definitely lost this game, but I think i'm only a few clicks away from finding a solve, but the thing is, I don't have the trust/momentum, and have a good chance at being one of the final misfades this game.

gimme titus, then ill trust you

[fireisredsir]

frog is possible. eyes is possible. enchant is likely. deas is possible. tene is ehh

[fireisredsir]

Fire, how do we get the lurkers to take a stance with the lim locked on VP/Nero?

thought this was sus at the time (bc it wasn't locked on those two at the time, people were still willing to push elsewhere) and it's even more sus knowing both were town

[fireisredsir]

No way scum don’t have a person in that four player hood with TPR that has flipped

it's possible considering everyone is going to convince themselves into voting there and will always be paranoid that there is scum in it. nero kill does also shine a spotlight on cape which... could be wifom, could be not.

[fireisredsir]

Fire, how do we get the lurkers to take a stance with the lim locked on VP/Nero?

thought this was sus at the time (bc it wasn't locked on those two at the time, people were still willing to push elsewhere) and it's even more sus knowing both were town

Titus time

VOTE: Titus

Titus also reacted weird when I tried to wagon Cape and started being defeatist when I tried to wagon Cape over VP.

Titus Cape Frogger I think nets 3 scum

yeah, i talk about this in 6074 and 6090 but that series of posts right before that where she voted vp over cape is one of the scummiest things I've ever seen and could def mean cape is a possible partner

[fireisredsir]

but math is such an easy scapegoat since he's conftown

hands are tied! can't do anything about it, sorry guys!

Nero before Titus pls.

im just glad vp gets his dying wish

nero before titus

[fireisredsir]

if enchant is scum they already had a lie ready, there's no reason for them to stall to make one up now

[fireisredsir]

FTR I have reason to think you are town unless you are scum with a certain person but your vote is bad and the fact that you don't care about being bad is just horrible.

btw this post might be why nero is dead (referring to scorp here)

knowing he's a doctor tho, idk what he meant by it, it might've just been based on play but it sure sounds like mech

[fireisredsir]

there's a very good chance all 3 of those are town shots so if you are town then maf team is doing us a favor lol

[fireisredsir]

ohh maybe, that seems like a weird way to phrase it tho since he doesn't have any more reason to believe it than anyone else

[fireisredsir]

also tene even if he did mean you, scum might not have known that and thought it was him softing something else

[fireisredsir]

I can't shake a paranoia feeling of ScumFire just controlling this game completely.

well if I'm scum ill give you at least 2 scum here first so you can wait until later to worry about that

but im obvtown smh

[fireisredsir]

the fact that you were "proven right" is evidence against you not in favor of you. if vp had flipped scum, then maybe I'd reconsider

[fireisredsir]

like i hate to break it to you but pushing a town flip all day while the whole time crying about how you townread it so strongly and that you're sure it will flip town but it MUST BE DONE anyway is... not towny, even if you're looking at it on the most basic level

[fireisredsir]

We're just going to keep doing the same thing, huh?

Unless my scumpool decides to defend me, probably.

you should prob just tell them to bus so we can get this over with

[fireisredsir]

The correct play from town was to give out hope that I wouldn't be the day's misfade.

maybe, but town is tired of doing the back and forth, will they won't they, and we need a scumflip for motivation. i think you're smart enough to know not to give too much away if you're the leading candidate

[fireisredsir]

same

[fireisredsir]

i think frog is a decent possibility. the way titus/datisi jumped onto frog immediately after VP voted there both times... it could go either way. i can see a world where maf would jump on a partner like that in a place where they're not likely to get limmed and where it appeases vp

still would much prefer titus but i think cape and frog are both in the poe i would have for her partners anyway

[fireisredsir]

the power of masons is much more in being confirmed town to each other than it is in being to talk to each other. 4 town neighborhood does not have that power

[fireisredsir]

So if you dictate my green flip, you still won't admit my theory is right will you?

what theory?

[fireisredsir]

Fire/April, are you sure you want to be agreeing with someone who proposes the mod do something in public is a scumslip? Are you sure you want to be agreeing with someone who accuses you of making up games? Someone who is responsible for two dead town (VP and Nero)?

annnnnnnd this is why you arguing with math does not in any way make you obvtown

[fireisredsir]

like you're clearly trying to rile him up bc you know he's easy to prove wrong and you think it will make you look better for being the one in the right

i mean it worked on april, so go off I guess

[fireisredsir]

@titus, the fact that math agrees with me on some things has no significant effect on my reads. i appreciate it when he does, though

you trying to argue that me and april shouldn't trust our own reads because they align with what math thinks, and he's been wrong about a lot of things, is incredibly blatant in its manipulative nature, and also a fallacy. im actually a little offended that you think that would work on me tbh

[fireisredsir]

If Math wasn't conftown, we would have limmed him long ago for expanding the lim pool. Instead, we're forced to go down this path.

nothing that i do or have done or plan to do in this game is because math says we should

[fireisredsir]

Really? You're playing in his pool. You're following his lims.

We should do Frog today or maybe StD like Enchant wants.

his pool happens to be similar to mine. my reads come from me, im not following him at all. i disagreed with him yesterday that it had to be VP and was exploring other options. im open to the possibility of frog today

[fireisredsir]

i liked enchant's bingo card, that was fun

[fireisredsir]

What are your thoughts on StD?

same as last time you asked

[fireisredsir]

nero also may have been killed bc it was likely mostly town that suspected him, and scum needed the titus counterwagon to be someone that they would be able to help push. this especially makes sense if scum had townreads on nero

[fireisredsir]

hmm maybe what i just said doesn't make that much sense actually, idk

[fireisredsir]

my thought was that in a titus scum world, the rest of the team wouldnt want to be stuck unable to join the counterwagon due to townreading the target. this was inspired by a sudden push on april, which has i think a wider range of people willing to support it, and probs just as many town who would vote there as would vote nero. depending on the player, scum can be afraid to join a wagon on someone they previously townread. saving scum titus would probably require there to be a wagon that has scum supporting and encouraging it, and my point was that a nero kill pushes april forward to be the most likely second wagon.

but on further thinking idk if i really agree with that take, since it's probs also valuable (maybe even more valuable) for there to be a wagon on town that is mostly being pushed mainly by town. and maybe they rolecopped him or something anyway and this is irrelevant

[fireisredsir]

april is a very big fish but also shouldn't be fried

[fireisredsir]

me and math just said we did like a few pages ago

[fireisredsir]

this especially makes sense if scum had townreads on nero

Scum literally cant have scumreads on Nero. They can see him as a threat.

stated townreads in thread, obv

[fireisredsir]

Frog/Tene/Cape/Titus…?

idk if it's both tene and cape. but i think that's at least 2, and a good shot at 3/4

[fireisredsir]

im still not happy with how late yesterday cape was ISOing titus and basically pulled out all the reasons i think she's scum and was like "hey this is scummy!" and i was excited that someone else finally saw it and was ready to call him town and then he lands on "mixed" and "the opposite of a conclusion" and puts her in undecided and then moves on

i was so disappointed

[fireisredsir]

Only thing that is preventing me from hitting that vote button is IDK how scum!Titus works in either of scum!VP or scum!Nero's world

like hey guess what we're not in a scum!VP or a scum!Nero world

so what's stopping you now

[fireisredsir]

i once was lost but now im found

[fireisredsir]

yes it did, cause i am a shepherd, and in the name of charity and good will, i guide the weak through the valley of darkness

[fireisredsir]

How should I vote oh wise shepherd

not april. preferably titus. frog or cape might be good picks. tene or eyes or deas probably aren't happening but i bet one of them is maf

[fireisredsir]

think that's e-1 btw

[fireisredsir]

alright let's goooo i think this game should be not as painful now that we have one scumflip

[fireisredsir]

some possibly interesting datisi posts i collected (mostly just ones that comment in some way on people that are still alive)
336
1037
1863
2238
2489
3184
3189
3281
3407

[fireisredsir]

don't think its likely I vote outside frog/eyes/cape today

[fireisredsir]

btw i think deas is town. he's been slightly away lately but i think posting 6823 (his only post of the day) with no comment on titus right as the wagon is starting to make its final push... it just looks so bad that i think a titus partner would feel too self-conscious to even do that lol

[fireisredsir]

april and std are like the least likely for me to want to add to that list. im not 100% sold on those 3 being the team tho so it may be someone outside of that, but I think for today those are the most likely

[fireisredsir]

also y'all are forgetting nero. he could have doctored one of the shots

[fireisredsir]

right ok so why is galron sus of std

[fireisredsir]

april town

[fireisredsir]

april town

Why?

some of my reasoning is in 6525. titus was also hard pocketing him

[fireisredsir]

frog is scum who did not plan well enough for today and is trying to look genuine but did not choose the correct direction to go lol

[fireisredsir]

i caught titus and convinced like all of the wagon to vote there. give me my poe for today at least

[fireisredsir]

ok mb you're right, you get credit too. but i did convince tene and dragons and cape at least, and april at one point

[fireisredsir]

Not really liking all the bold declarations in thread versus communicating and block forming.

what if i boldly communicate my block forming

[fireisredsir]

Not really liking all the bold declarations in thread versus communicating and block forming.

what if i boldly communicate my block forming

That’d be a good idea.

Because right now I think you’re boldly going where no scum has gone before

(Brownie points if you get the reference)

im not old enough to get the reference (but i do get it anyway. the final frontier!)

my personal block is me/math/april/std/deas. galron, tene, and scorp are a bit weaker. the other 3 have at least 2 scum in them imo

[fireisredsir]

cape your deductive skills are unmatched. that's two days now, first yeet and now this? how does he do it

[fireisredsir]

i mean that's ok too. im just telling you who i think is town. you don't have to agree with april yet, but i do plan to see what she thinks in terms of solving this

[fireisredsir]

also i think it is pretty possible still that we have a traitor. in which case maybe im wrong about one of my townreads. but we might as well aim to catch the groupscum first if we can

[fireisredsir]

skitter would def be willing to early push datisi if they were maf together imo, i don't think that's really very AI for her

[fireisredsir]

remember it's only 6 votes to elim, i don't think we have to rush through today now that we have some decent info from the flip, so be a little careful with throwing around votes

[fireisredsir]

titus did def have the goal of arguing with you and trying to get on the town side of that argument and push you away. i interpreted that as having the selfish goal mostly of trying to appear as the "correct" one and get townread off it, especially to pocket April, which worked btw. but it could have had a dual purpose also of not letting you work together with town

[fireisredsir]

Anyone bringing to quick e-1 is sus

Where was this caution yesterday?

yesterday town was tired and dead and there wasn't really much to talk about. now i think we're kinda energized and there's a lot of things to look at and see which associations are being built. i also was more confident in titus scum than I am of any individual being scum today

[fireisredsir]

cause i don't think you approach the last 2 days the way you did if you were maf partners with titus

[fireisredsir]

I think fire is trying to kill the frogs and scorps and I'm the only one that sees it

you've flipped opinions twice in the last three posts lol

i also have no interest in killing scorp at the moment

[fireisredsir]

cause i don't think you approach the last 2 days the way you did if you were maf partners with titus

Huh?

that was @deas. i think his wincon as scum (especially considering who is left as possible partners) would have been to deepwolf and commit hard to getting on the side of the people who are leading the town. i don't think he votes for vp after expressing doubt there unless he genuinely believes he's likely maf. i don't think he would have ignored titus yesterday like he did. he's also just been less engaged and communicative with people lately than he was earlier which i think is the opposite of what his scum approach would be. at first i thought maybe he was maf drifting away from town and having trouble reconnecting, but after seeing the flip im pretty sure he's town

[fireisredsir]

frog do you already know the answer to that

but yes, obv

[fireisredsir]

hi april

i think frog/cape is pretty likely, what do you think of eyes?

[fireisredsir]

don't think its likely I vote outside frog/eyes/cape today

I thought fire voted me here in 6863

im not in a hurry to vote bc I want to talk more first. but if i were voting now it would prob be on you

[fireisredsir]

im pretty on board with that

[fireisredsir]

i kinda believe scorp too, the only argument i have for him possibly being scum is that after a recent game ended he was all like "ugh im so tired of being scum" so maybe if he rolled scum this game he decided to just hard coast it out. but he's pretty low on my priority list

[fireisredsir]

math ive had plenty of paranoia over April this game. 2 game days ago i was feeling like it was more likely they were maf. ive gone back and forth, but right now i don't see any reason to think they're maf, based on the way they're playing and the way that titus played. the same way that titus' play made me feel it was most likely that vp was town. and even though they've been wrong with some reads, I think that they're p valuable to work together with and solve with

[fireisredsir]

I'll need someone to convince me on Frogster? I'll have another read through, but I'd feel nervous eliminating there. The all-over-the-place-ness of their stances and posts seems more "lost townie" to me than scum-motivated. And given the gamestate up until the titus elim, "lost townie" seems pretty believable. I may be falling for it, but I'm not as convinced by Frogster being scum.

im not 100% confident on it, and i think lately there is a bit of those vibes, but looking back on their ISO it doesn't look like town, especially for frog. there's a pretty major lack of attempting to solve through the early and mid game, not much of the trademark overexitedness and overconfidence and just... effort that is trademark of town frog. he's been pushing town the whole game and there were literally zero attempts to sort datisi (despite a few mentions of "i still need to sort this slot", no questions or reads or thoughts given) until titus replaced in, then you have 4029 and 4042 which are pretty weak, 4836, and then after that he has at least a few engagements with titus, then the wild theory of her being SK, but once that calms down he doesn't even mention her again until after the flip (although he didn't post at all for like 4 days in there)

it's also a poe sort for me, there's not many people left that I think could be scum

[fireisredsir]

don't forget the part where titus was townreading VP and said she'd vote anyone to save VP and then a counterwagon started forming on cape and then she told math "don't get distracted" and voted VP instead of cape

[fireisredsir]

yes! that's why i thought it was very important for the health of the town that we flip titus yesterday

[fireisredsir]

can y'all chill im p sure everyone fighting here is town lol

[fireisredsir]

i would just... really REALLY love to lim in frog/cape/eyes today, and we can worry about the rest more later

[fireisredsir]

unfortunately, no can do.

I have 3 votes on me, with 4 votes out there that would be willing to hop over.

hmm and will they see the light if you die or is it not worth it

[fireisredsir]

i don't wanna have to pull out the shepherd... uh... stick? what's that called? a crook? anyway I don't wanna have to pull that out again, but dragons and tene you followed me last time to the promised land of titus, can you do it again just for today away from the unpromised land of april? and into any of frog/cape/eyes

[fireisredsir]

@Fire - This was another odd move by Cape if Cape is scum. Just like when Cape came after me that one day phase that just felt really dangerous as scum. Could you see Frog/Eyes/STD?

not really! my townblock (math/std/april/deas) is pretty locked for me, unless any of them is a traitor. i don't see any as aligned with titus. frog/cape/eyes are my top 3, followed by galron, then scorp, then tene

[fireisredsir]

i think scumteam doesn't really have anyone who can lead town anymore. so they're probably not really coordinating well among themselves either, and just hoping to do whatever they can individually to get townread. that's my theory at least. we can hold off on the massclaim until tomorrow

[fireisredsir]

im tired

ive been thinking april every day but the rug always gets pulled out from under me when momentum shifts that way

today i mean it i'm not budging

i mean that's fair, i get it. i just think we'll be in a much safer spot if we flip another scum today, it's not impossible that there's 4 scum+1 traitor or 3 scum+2 traitor, and in either of those situations things get a lot more sketchy.

and i believe our best chance of flipping a scum is in cape/eyes/frog

[fireisredsir]

hmmm interesting

[fireisredsir]

ok it's just frog then right?

[fireisredsir]

given the possible partners that tene would have if he were scum here, the movement on the d1 and d2 wagons actually fit kinda perfectly

gonna be annoyed if i had it right originally and everyone convinced me tene was town. still not interested in it today but that's why he isn't quite full town for me yet

[fireisredsir]

i mean it is true that one of the people who helped convince me was datisi lol

[fireisredsir]

don't think it would be dv. but cape/frog fits well with the wagon movement

[fireisredsir]

not yet cause I wanted to talk more. but ive made it clear where my poe is

[fireisredsir]

i don't think you should expect a coherent plan from scum frog

[fireisredsir]

cape i do not understand who you think is scum. you keep going in a direction and then being like "ehh this person is prob town"

who do you think is most likely to be scum right now

[fireisredsir]

math im not really sure what you're seeing there

[fireisredsir]

frog not even trying to solve is basically a scumclaim anyway. town frog is excited to solve things and extremely overconfident in his ability to do so

VOTE: frog

[fireisredsir]

kk we can wait until tomorrow

UNVOTE:

consider my vote on frog tho

[fireisredsir]

ive read most of frog's games. VP had a similar meta read as well

[fireisredsir]

in the one scumgame that i saw, frog started off pretty strong and then fell apart quickly and stopped doing any sort of solving once he got under pressure. he got elimmed d1. i don't think he knows how to play lategame scum.

in contrast, in his town games, he's pretty consistently trying to solve things, gets very excited, jumps around a lot, and is very confident. in the few games that i saw where he made it to late game, he was very active in trying to solve the game and work with others to come up with a team solve

[fireisredsir]

math hasn't been tunneled on you at all, so that doesn't track

my read on you isn't due to meta although I think the meta supports the case. it's due to the actions that you've taken in this game

your reasoning for not solving is extremely weak. if you're town, you would know that you would flip green and that would give your opinions more cred post-flip, so it would be worth trying to solve. you've barely even been trying for the last few days. if you start to try now then I'm open to reconsidering

[fireisredsir]

ok i went and looked and bunnies was one of the main reasons i thought your towngame was different than this, so ???

idk why you're saying it's exactly the same. you were wayyy more solvey and active in that one.

my point with bringing up your scumgame is that i don't think you have a record of being very good at scum due to lack of experience. i think your play in the last couple of days looks more like an inexperienced scum than your town game

if you're not scum it could be like cape/eyes/tene/scorp or something. it's possible

[fireisredsir]

my solves have been 4 for so long this game that it's what i default to. you're right tho, i should not be ignoring the possibility of a traitor or two to make it 5

[fireisredsir]

im losing confidence in everything tbh

will revisit this tomorrow

[fireisredsir]

i read them!

[fireisredsir]

No no no you’re suggesting four now after Titus’s flip. Why?

i still think 4 is most likely. i still think 5 with a traitor or two is possible. i still think in either case we should be hunting the groupscum. none of that has changed. idk why you think titus flipping would change any of it

[fireisredsir]

I'm still feeling nervous regarding Frogster. I'm still kind of not convinced of them being scum? I'm not confident enough to say "DON'T DO IT, FROGSTER IS TOWN!!!!" but I also am just a bit... skeptical.

what teams do you think are most likely that don't have frog in them?

[fireisredsir]

No no no you’re suggesting four now after Titus’s flip. Why?

i still think 4 is most likely. i still think 5 with a traitor or two is possible. i still think in either case we should be hunting the groupscum. none of that has changed. idk why you think titus flipping would change any of it

Then it would be Titus + three others no? Why still list four?

ohhh i see what you're saying, i did list 4. idk why! was juggling a few different things at the time that i made that post and got mixed up i guess. it was also a solve with very little thought put into it so i don't think it really holds up anyway. the only way there's 4 left is if there's a traitor imo