Newbie 2064 - (GG)

[humaneatingmonkey]

Hello what's up

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: Micc

Teach us how to react to pressure, Micc.

[humaneatingmonkey]

UNVOTE:

[humaneatingmonkey]

It's important to understand that Day 1s are important to go as long as possible because it's a useful reference to how players behaved and voted when everybody (except masons and scum) would have no information about anyone's alignment.

I think orctin could be town.

[humaneatingmonkey]

This is an X-post of a partial draft I drew up earlier this year on another site. Im posting it for both reference for feedback but also think it could be a useful reference for this player base. If anyone has tells they feel should be added, reasoning thats poorly explained/wrong, or any other criticism of this post I would love to hear your feedback.

Fundamentals of Scum Hunting

1. Intro

One of the biggest misconceptions about scum hunting is that there is a ‘right’ or ‘most effective’ way to do it. What works for someone else may not work for you at all. With this in mind its all about finding what works for you. -But- There are some basic core differences between the Town and the Mafia that every player should hold as true; how you go about identifying them but it is a very personal journey every player must embark upon. This will outline a large portion of accepted 'Tells' and explain why they are alignment indicative to help assist you in figuring out a strategy for your personal approach to scum hunting.

2. Types of Tells

When attempting to divine hidden information people look for ‘tells’ or indicators of alignment. My take on scum hunting is that all real ‘tells’ will draw back to a few very specific but very critical differences between the Mafia and the Town. Below are what I consider the core fundamental differences and some things I consider alignment indicators with reasoning.

A: Perspective:

-Core Reasoning:
• The Town players have to figure out who is on their team or who is their enemy
• The Mafia players already knows who is and is not on their team, and generally have a good idea of the alignment of the rest of the players
• The Town players are acting from a genuine and honest perspective
• The Mafia players have to fake their perspective and deceive the town

-Perspective Tells:

Knowledge of Impossible Information(TMI)

Occasionally you can peg a hard scum slip when a player has some information that should be impossible for them to know. If the player claimed that they are a doctor and somehow knows another players role there is a potential that they received the information from their mafia team. (Think before challenging a player on this as that you could out town power roles in the wrong situation)

Gap Between Confidence and Reads

Because they already know the players alignment they have to ‘make up reasoning’ to justify whatever position they take on the player they are talking about. This creates a situation where their conclusion is not based upon their reasoning. This gap can be identified by looking to see if their level of confidence matches their reasoning (Its often easier to identify this gap in their town reads)

Handing out easy Town credit/reads

Mafia players naturally have a tendency to throw out town credit with much less reasoning than they do as Town players. This is because there is a tendency to require less information to confirm a held belief than to establish a one. Additionally veteran scum players recognize the natural tendency for players to think along the same lines. The player who just got town read knows they are town and therefor they exercise the same bias when looking to see if the reasoning justified the conclusion. But as a 3rd party townie you can identify this because you do not know that either players alignment (or if your experienced enough and maintain the knowledge that their perspective shouldn’t just be confirming a known alignment you may be able to recognize it being done to you.) You can also factor in buddying/pocketing efforts although it is not the core reason this tell exists in my opinion.

Town reading those who scum read them

(counter to natural OMGUS)
The natural subconscious reaction to a player accusing you of being scum when you are town is to view them as scum. This is because you know with certainty that you are Town and that if you were to be correctly read it should be identifiable. Your mind catastrophizes the interaction and jumps to the conclusion that the other player must therefore be scum. But this is not true for the Mafia alignment. They know that they are scum and they know that the player accusing them is town. This difference can be identified in the way they respond to pressure; particularly in the early game where a town player would have no significant read on others alignments or in the later game when the player has expressed they read the player accusing them as scum prior to the interaction. If their defense does not come from a perspective that you would identify as questioning their accusers alignment and they have not expressed a belief that the accusing player is town you should take notice. (This is more effective on newer players who’s reaction to pressure is less guided by experience, particularly if their meta has a ‘everyone is guilty until proven innocent’ nature to it.)

Disassociated Presentation

This is a commonly known indicator that is created as a result of the scum player not speaking from their own perspective. Scum players will consciously consider how a town player would say what they are looking to say and unintentionally slip, speaking from the perspective they are thinking from. This is easily noticeable when words such as ‘They, you, your’ are used in place of ‘I, My, Me.’

Lack of Natural flow to speech

This is also a result of the scum player not speaking from their own perspective. The information they are communicating is transformed from their perspective to the perspective they are presenting from. You may notice that the communication is just kind of awkward or out of place. Maybe there’s broken thought processes or some things just don’t quite connect in a normal way. Regardless it’s a red flag you should take notice of.

Lack of consistency

This is a pretty strong indicator that reflects a disconnect between what the player says and what they do. Town players are generally consistent because their actions come from an honest place. If they scum read a player they will be willing or even eager to lynch them; or if they town read a player they may make an effort to defend them. For scum it is much more difficult. They have to keep track of all the fake positions they take and stick with those positions. I don’t think I have ever read through a game and not found at least some inconsistency’s in a scum player. Some of it is a result of evolving conditions such as being forced to choose between a player they voiced that they read as town and their scum team mate. In those situations you can often see a gap between the voiced reasoning for them changing their perspective and what would be natural. Scum players also slip sometimes by forgetting what position they took earlier.

Neutral Hunting

This occurs when a team scum specifically hunts for a neutral killing. Many players do it because the neutral really is a threat to them but also because it gives them something to genuinely hunt. They no longer have to fake reads or worry about speaking from a perspective that is not their own and can act somewhat naturally; but this can also be identified if you notice the player is very specifically jumping to the conclusion that their read indicates a neutral. The natural perspective on a read would be that the player is some kind of evil or even not town making this a decent tell.

Freezing

This is more specific to turbos or EOD when chat is fast paced but scum can often freeze up in response to pressure. A scum called out on a slip may need some time to figure out how he can justify his slip while a town needs no time to think and can simply be honest.

Flailing

Because scum have to make up their reads / reasoning they can be caught in a slip. Once caught they will have to justify their position which can result in flailing. You may notice them constantly adjusting their warrant or grounds saying that you do not understand or even adjusting their initial claim. This can often be identified by breaking down their argument. If they change their claim check their warrant to see if it supports the adjusted claim. This can also occur when they have taken a position with a lack of reasoning and are later forced to justify that position and fail to do so in a way that appears natural.

B: Intention:

-Core Reasoning:
• The Town players objective is to figure out who is on their team or who their enemy is and eliminate those players
• The Mafia players objective is to avoid being identified/lynched, keep their team mates from being identified/lynched.
• The Mafia has no obligation to do anything but survive the day cycle until night so they can kill another player.

-Intention Tells:

Focus on Self Preservation

This is both extremely common as well as easy to identify. Scum players core motivation is to stay alive while towns is to eliminate scum- even if it means sacrificing themselves. You can often identify this behavior by looking at the players focus as pressure builds (especially if its nearing the end of the day and they recognize they could very easily be on the chopping block.) Experienced town players will generally focus on forwarding their win condition even if it means their death. They may do things like push their reads with the knowledge that their demise will reveal their role, making their words come from a ‘confirmed town’ and recognizing that they will be taken more seriously. You will also see experienced players scum hunt while they are defending reflecting that their focus is not exclusively on ‘staying alive.’ In contrast scum players (especially inexperienced ones) will only say and do things in an attempt to avoid the lynch. If they feel that they have been had they will sometimes just completely shut down and stop interacting all together.

Lack of Scum Hunting

Novice scum can often make the mistake of not pretending to solve the game. This can be a reflection of there being no motivation for the player to identify scum because they have no need to. Look for players who pop in and seem to kind of 'hang out' / interact as if waiting for someone to give them something to do.

Information Instead of Analysis (IIOA)

Similar to a lack of scum hunting some scum players will spend time and effort organizing information instead of analyzing information. This allows them to show effort with a focus on reducing entropy while also shifting information, perspective, and avoiding many of the tells that come with scum hunting. Favoring information will always be a pattern for deductive scum hunters especially in the PR setups hosted here but a lack of inductive reasoning should be a red flag.

Hyperawareness of others perception of them

Scum players are naturally hyperaware of how others view them. Everything they post can be taken from the mindset of ‘how will the town view this’ and they take special note when others voice concerns about them. This can sometimes come out as unnatural jumps to address any issue raised about them and can also be reflected in the way they speak about themselves.

Intent to lynch

Because scum players want to eliminate players with little consideration to who they can often be too opportunistic. They also have incentive to avoid voting on a scum team mate and will instead have motivation to be on the counter wagon. This action pays off for them well if the lynch is avoided in that they can not even be seen doing it unless it fails. These behaviors are most easily identified with wagonomics although a lynch-happy attitude can sometimes be identified.

Focus on 1 player

Some scum just peg 1 player to scum read. This allows them to appear as if they are attempting to solve the game while also not dealing with the natural counter push / OMGUS that comes when you scum read a town. I most easily seen this in low activity scum.

Pillow Pushing

I often see scum players pushing on a player until the first moment of resistance arises and then dropping the issue. This happens because their intention was never to push the player but rather to be seen pushing the player and when they are pressured on it they have no reasoning to create conviction as well as little motivation to draw attention to themselves. This also happens when some scum try to bus.

Mirroring

Because scum players have to fake their scum hunting they often take cues from the town players reads. Novice/Lazy scum will often just grab the general positioning of read walls and present them as their own or just regurgitate what the rest of the town has voiced when asked for an opinion. This is easy to identify if your active enough to really understand the gamestate and much more incriminating as the game progresses. If you notice a player is not generating original thought step back and in-context iso them to check for this behavior.

C: Association:

-Core Reasoning:
• The Mafia players have a known Team that they can work with and a shared chat to coordinate activities
• The Town players usually have no team they coordinate with
• The Mafia Players have a vested interest in keeping their team mates alive

-Association Tells:

Building a counter-train

Experienced scum players will sometimes deflate the pressure on their team mates by instigating pressure on another player to distract from the situation. This generally works well and is difficult to nail down until the mid-end game where a pattern of it occurring can be identified but is something that can be noticed and bring up the question of if you should look closer into this players associations, especially in post flip analysis.

Coordinated actions

Good Mafia teams will use their special chat to coordinate some basic outlines of intentions. Things like which players to focus on lynching are often established prior to the day starting. Fortunately for the town these types of coordinated actions can become identifiable after enough time has progressed. Vote pattern analysis can also point to this.
Unnatural interactions(Puppet Show)
Anyone who has ever taken a theater class has seen some really terrible acting that is so awkward, it makes you feel awkward just watching it. Thats the kind of feeling I can get when watching 2 scum play out some rehearsed interaction.

Aversion

What a player does not say is sometimes more important to notice than what they do. You will can notice scum players intentionally avoiding situations or discussions because they would be very uncomfortable to deal with. Examples could range from someone bringing up analysis of the votes in a lynch or maybe the entire train on one of their scum team mates. They may not want to get their scum buddy lynched but more than that they really don’t want to be associated with trying to prevent him from being lynched so they just avoid the situation entirely. This aversion is difficult to notice in the moment but can more easily be identified as the game progresses. I personally find aversion to be much more common than coordination and very particularly am critical of a Power Wolf who has massive interactions and reads yet strangely avoids talking to or about a few players. I believe this aversion comes from being forced to either bus or make up a fake read that ties them together when reading a team mate.

IronMan

Ironman is the opposite of strawman in terms of presenting someones argument. Teamscum will sometimes present their team mates defense as stronger than it is when speaking about their thoughts on that players case. This allows a strong speaker or a townread speaker to deflate pressure on a team mate and can be noticed by comparing the discussed players argument with the teamscums and identifying creative contributions to the original defense.

3. Conclusion

You should consider the implications of the setup on how you scum hunt. If the setup changes a core reason for a scum hunting tell you should take time to consider how that must change the way you scum hunt.

Above all else you need to honestly evaluate your own play to figure out what works for you. If you dont reread your games you will be prone to bias in what you think works for you. This often results in players using techniques that just do not work for them and can really submarine their impact on games. Practice only helps you improve if you are able to recognize your mistakes so you can learn from them.

I am not going to say that this list includes every tell but I will say that I believe any scum hunting tell should draw back to a core difference. If yours do not you may want to reconsider it. Even if you disagree with how I look at scum hunting I believe you should be able to justify the tells you use to others, so that you can push lynches. If your position is not tenable you may be doing something very wrong.

This is not at all a comprehensive guide to mafia. Mafia is generally unsolved that relies on its unsolvability to be a fun game. Scumtells become obsolete when they become known.

There are, however, unchanging factors:
Mafia has a wincon: Hunt the PR, pave the way to win at LYLO.
Town has a wincon: Find the mafia and eliminate the mafia.

Town is frustrated that he doesn't have the information he needs and this feeling manifests differently. Mafia is faking this, and they all fake this differently.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Yeah, that is very scummy to throw out a vote without a logical explanation for it, especially when there were no posts from anyone beyond that from the first proper post in this game. I completely agree. I thought that's one unwise move to make dude. I don't get the joke votes at all personally. Because of that rookie mistake, I'm going with this.

VOTE: Micc

I don't like this. This is overexplained.

VOTE: Fizz Raab

[humaneatingmonkey]

Seems pretty weak logic there.

No, I see where they are coming from, regardless of that I think it's wrong. Also early reads are mainly always "weak"

what's the point of this post

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm sorry, how does overexplaining stuff this class as a scum move? I think voting for me over this is absolotely ridiclilous. What's wrong with overexplaining something? Please tell me.

so you agree, you're overexplaining?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Micc feels like he's town.

[humaneatingmonkey]

What's the point of this post. Why shade me from this.

It's interesting that you think that's shading. Do you think it could be inherently shady? I wanted to know what's on your head when you made that post.

[humaneatingmonkey]

So what if I am. It still doesn't classify as a scum move and a ridiclious reason to vote me.

What classifies as a scum move in your opinion?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I don't want people to go down false rabbit holes like my previous game so I am clarifying to them that their logic being weak is not AI like it seemed they were pushing.

How did you decide that it's a false rabbit hole

[humaneatingmonkey]

What do you think about orctin vs Micc

[humaneatingmonkey]

it's very hard to read newbies

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: Dum

[humaneatingmonkey]

What part of my posting from last night convinced you, or did you feel that way before voting me?

I didn't agree that you were scum. You were wrong about me earlier about reading the game in those 25 minutes. I just saw that you had a wagon at page 3 and jumped on it. After reading, I just saw that the aggressive behavior the newbies are seeing are just normal mafiascum dayplay from any alignment.

I felt #67 was town

[humaneatingmonkey]

I feel like I'm having a hard time reading players because the usual tells that I'm used to don't apply as much here.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Dum at #104 and #114 doesn't feel right. It feels fake.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Guys it's very hard to read into your back-to-back when it's formatted like this.

[humaneatingmonkey]

What I don't agree on is the idea that that means someone should be exempt from being voted. In my eyes, a townie that mostly causes problems and makes everyone go on wild goose chases isn't a help to the town cause and is unintentionally aiding the scum. As far as I'm concerned, Micc has done little to help in finding the scum and made us waste a good portion of time by making himself suspicious to several people, myself included, so if we can't get a good enough scumread to figure out one of the two mafia members, I don't think eliminating him would hurt us too much.

I don't like this

[humaneatingmonkey]

By all means vote them if you think that's scum for them, I respectfully disagree that it's scummy but if you make a case on them that convinces me I will obviously have no qualms about voting there. But as it stands right now, I think both them and Orc are Town and I would rather focus on Dum or Salsa. If you see them as anti-town, that's a fair reason to want to eliminate them but what exactly makes them scum over anti-town. I personally do not read them as being anti-town either but you do so I am asking this not because I agree with you but I want to understand.

I like this

[humaneatingmonkey]

Yeah, the post I quoted before was the first of a string of weird tonal posts and their apologetic/backlash-protective posts make my read on them stronger. Also I disagree with Orc, they will not defend themselves properly and we won't get any pressure reads until they get pushed on. Again not voting but throwing intent is meaningless.

I also like this

[humaneatingmonkey]

navigatorv, are you afraid to be lynched?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I would like everyone to answer the following: What is your strategy in finding and eliminating scum? What are the things you're looking for in scum?

[humaneatingmonkey]

As for if I'm afraid to be lynched, no, feel free to vote for me if that's what you want.

I ask because you're playing like you're afraid of being suspicious, but this answer told me otherwise, which makes me think that you're actually avoiding suspicion because you're scum. What do you think about that?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I gotta say, that play by Dum was definitely unexpected and the analysis was fairly well done. Unfortunately, I don't think taking the bait means anything; it relies on whoever it is not paying attention to the events of the thread which I don't see most of the active players doing, scum or otherwise. The rules at the beginning also said we have to state our intent to hammer on vote 5, which he didn't do. As far as I can tell, the trap did little to tell us about orctin, but did reveal a trickier side to Dum (though whether that will backfire or not remains to be seen).

navigatorv said this about Dum and then now says he thinks Dum is scummy

[humaneatingmonkey]

both navigatorv and Dum is smelly. navigatorv's vote on Dum feels off, but not necessarily in a way that might say it's TvS.

[humaneatingmonkey]

JV, Micc, and orctin feels ok to me

[humaneatingmonkey]

the other slots are just not really present much. although I kinda slightly like how Fizz Raab reacted to my overexplaining joke.

I think overexplaining a vote this early, if it's just repeating the same points all over again, feels like scum trying to convince the town that their vote is not suspicious.

[humaneatingmonkey]

But his reaction was too honest that it caught me off-guard. I would have expected denial.

[humaneatingmonkey]

my overexplaining joke

overexplaining vote*

[humaneatingmonkey]

Also Dunn and navigatorv both mentioned that I have an aggressive/provocative personality... but I really don't know where that came from. Can you both explain?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Do you think I'm dumb or do you think I'm scum?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm also here but really nothing's been happening yet. I wanna hear more from everyone.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I will try my best to win though.

so weird from the get go

[humaneatingmonkey]

Towniest in no particular order:
Micc, Cabd

so so weird

[humaneatingmonkey]

why wall post when I can say what's on my mind in concise sentences that you can understand?
what is the need for telegraphing your every move?
you think someone exclaiming that "I'm gonna win guys!" isn't eyebrow-raising material?
you think someone putting the mod as town isn't eyebrow-raising material?
do you think substance is the amount of words I can cram in one block of text?
and what's the point of that question? is it substance? is it to find out if i'm mafia or are you just saying stuff just to say stuff now?
consider these questions, buddy.

[humaneatingmonkey]

what are you doing?

[humaneatingmonkey]

you're characterizing me as a rude boy when I haven't really been an asshole to anyone

[humaneatingmonkey]

i think navigatorv is trying to vote me here, but can't really get himself to

[humaneatingmonkey]

i'm guessing he wants to wait until someone agrees so it can look like a valid move

[humaneatingmonkey]

Orctin had already made it pretty clear that he knew he wasn't hammering with that vote, and both Micc and Dum continued quizzing him about it anyway. Micc also posted twice without mentioning that Dum's vote count was off, then immediately brought it up after Orctin cast his vote. Almost as if both he and Dum were waiting for someone to take the bait and cast a vote.

I like this post

[humaneatingmonkey]

navigatorv, if you're town, just stop obsessing over every move and just act. acknowledge that a lot of gameplay are just instincts your gut tells you that you try to find justification for. it's important to act first, and gauge strongly anything feels.

[humaneatingmonkey]

gauge strongly anything feels.

EBWOP gauge *how strongly anything feels

[humaneatingmonkey]

guess what, if you're town, it's very easy to look town because you're town. if you're mafia, you're gonna have to be an oscar-winning actor to fake spontaneity like that.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Penguin_Alien posted once and disappeared, absolutely lurking.
As for the rest: No.

...so where did you get the gut reads from? Can you be more descriptive?

[humaneatingmonkey]

you are obviously scared of the lynch, dude

[humaneatingmonkey]

i'm evaluating if it's newbie anxiety or scum anxiety.

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: JamesTheNames

[humaneatingmonkey]

[quote="In post 211I think Jackson only votes for what they think are scum moves. Even if I was scared of backlash, that doesn't necessarily mean I'm scum

This is actually Town, I am fairly confident in this from this post. And to comment on this, that is indeed how I play. Just because an action may seem scummy or anti-town from the surface, does not mean that it comes from scum. Look deeper or you'll fall for false rabbit holes[/quote]
why is this town? to be honest I'm reading navigator as scum here

[humaneatingmonkey]

nav, how did your read on Jackson progress over the game?

[humaneatingmonkey]

It could be them pocketing me but at the moment I have no reason to believe so.

You have no reason to believe that nav could be scum?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Responses in red

Hey fam, check my signature.
Also I am not going to *not* defend someone that I think is wrongfully pushed just because they're a wagon, that's insane. Please do quote where you think I am trying to make you turn on each other, I literally am saying that Orc/Micc is TvT, trying to *stop* that conflict because I feel they're both Town.

The lurking isn't what gets me, it's that you went from lurking to dominating the conversation. Just seems a bit odd.
As for quotes, aside from the more active hostility that started right around the time you started posting, there's the vehement refusal to even consider a no-elimination over just voting someone that seems sus with no real evidence.

If that's your issue, why did you say that lurking was the issue. I hardly ever post much in early-game unless someone twists my soul (mainly in a bad way), just the way I play. Also as Micc has said, no-eliminating forces the Town to rely on PRs more than what is needed, and that throws the odds into the Mafia's hands which I do not want. I am assuming that you come from role-madness like games (such as Town of Salem) where there is a lot of PR roles and it's focused on night-play.

We are not no-eliminating, that is counter-intuitive to our goals.

Then the defense of Micc in and of itself isn't an issue, but the fact that you seem to view aggressive and borderline antagonistic behavior as not something to worry about

Aggressive or antagonistic does not equal scummy, that could very well just be their playstyle similar to how someone like DkKoba plays

It's in what I said. They seemed to be pushing what I read as NAI

Yet seem to find Dum apologizing suspicious enough to warrant a potential wagon

Firstly I already said it was mainly gut so I won't be pushing them, so you're misrepresenting my case here. There's also a large difference between why I think that read was NAI and why I think Dum's actions were scummy, which you seemed to ignore.

I am voting Salsa since the read on Dum isn't super strong but they've been overly apologetic which I am thinking may be them doing so to "protect" themselves from any slips they make, which I also think is a subconscious act since they're new to the site.

Combine that with the fact that claiming both orctin and Micc are TvT is actually a very good way to protect a potential scum (or at least disruptive player), without attracting suspicion, it has me wary. Not enough to warrant a vote, but enough to keep an eye out.

If you read them as SvT go for it, I don't and I am not going to push what I don't believe just because I may be read as partners.

If I had to pick, I'd say my top 3 suspects are, from most to least suspicious, Salsabil, Jackson, and Micc. However, there's still enough doubt that I can't pick a specific person to point the finger at rn. That said

It's early on day 1, it does not matter where your vote is as long as you're voting someone you think is scummy. I have no idea why you seem to think it holds a lot of weight in who you specifically vote.

As for this, I'll let you answer your own question.

Ignoring or

half-assing

day-play will make us lose, it's as simple as that.

Again you're misrepresenting. You clearly have scum-reads that are ranked in order, yet choose to not vote at all. Is that because you may be scared of the backlash possibly

Jackson, how has your read on nav developed?

[humaneatingmonkey]

bruh i feel like i need to read this thread with fresh eyes

[humaneatingmonkey]

good night guys

[humaneatingmonkey]

one last thing JV, your sig says you're a tactical lurker. what does it mean?

[humaneatingmonkey]

so now that you're active, what could it mean for you?

[humaneatingmonkey]

why are you so on edge lol
i'm asking because you're the most active poster here (besides me, but I spam one-liners), yet you carry "tactical lurker" in your sig. It's just curious, and I do wonder if you would say it's AI.

[humaneatingmonkey]

James, do you understand that penguin_alien and Cabd is not a player?

[humaneatingmonkey]

a partner under the bus isn't exactly a smart move.

I've won multiple scum games bussing my partner

[humaneatingmonkey]

Yep. Check my wiki

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'll be re-reading the thread today

[humaneatingmonkey]

Hey, sorry, now I know I promised a catch-up but today was not a good day for me.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I miss Micc.
I think navigatorv is town.

[humaneatingmonkey]

It's evident that he's putting an active effort to make reads and sort people. My only issue is his reads don't progress as naturally as I want it to be because he constantly flip-flops his reads according to who in the gamestate is the hottest viable wagon. This does not look good to me. But then, being caught changing your reads and still making an effort into committing reads points towards town. It could also be the anxiety he's talking about. He is also obviously scared of elimination, which does not look good to me. But it could also be the anxiety he's talking about. I think the vulnerability and self-awareness might be influencing my reads here, but that's where I'll put him now.

[humaneatingmonkey]

One thing I find fascinating but dangerous is that HEM has a tendency to request more information out of others (such as in post 91 and 92), yet doesn't seem to like when people do the same to him (such as his response to 172 and his complete ignoring of what James said about him in 178).

I ask questions. You called me rude with no obvious goal and offputting. It's not the same.

[humaneatingmonkey]

The only problem is the progression isn't a result of his own initiative/process, who he shows he has, but others' process.

[humaneatingmonkey]

We lynch between Dum, JamesTheNames, and Fizz Raab today. Everything one else could stay to Day 2.

[humaneatingmonkey]

JV, what do you feel about these people?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Dum's gambit is attention-seeking behavior not commonly found in scum. I'm inclined to believe that this slot could be town.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Town Reads:

1-navigatorv. As of right now, everything they have done looks extremely townie to me, especially with the reads they have been posting (Wich i mostly agree with).

I doubt newbscum openly buddies like that without much explanation.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Fizz Raab's slot is how I think newbscum reacts to pressure.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm inclined to believe that JamesTheNames was fucking around and unserious by including the names of the mod and the backup mod in his readlists, because they're not included in his analyses. I think that type of mistake only happens when you're faking your readlist, or you're trying to dumbtell, but you can quickly pick-up that it's a joke because he has a separate opinion post with the right roster of players.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm thinking we are in this slow pace because scum wants us to be here. It feels like we are being forced into voting reads that aren't really that solid. It could be worthwhile to look at the people who lurks.

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: Fizz Raab

Lynch Strategy

We're getting closer to day-end. It's very useful to have 2 to 3 wagons based on our most confident reads, so we can analyze how those wagons formed and how those wagons shaped to produce a lynch tomorrow. A good lynch would be a lynch that would give us the most associative information at the very least, and at the very most: scum. There's also value in lynching a slot if we are confident that we won't be able to sort them. However, since this is a newbie setup, there's a way to solve around that to say the least.

That said, there's a build-up to getting the "most confident reads", and it's the process of getting there. I'm looking at a gamestate and it's clear that it's in a sorry state. We have little interaction that we can parse from for Day 2, or even our Day 1 lynch. Let's change that.

How to change that:
1. Reads aren't great alone, you need to test it out. If you believe someone is scum, put them in situations where you think you can get them to reveal themselves as scum through actions.
2. You need to cooperate with your town reads to commit to your common scumreads so you can build a wagon.
3. Make people commit to an opinion of all other players.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I've been saying lynch but MafiaScum wants to move away from this word. Sorry — old habits die hard. Please say "elimination" or "lim"

[humaneatingmonkey]

Why?

[humaneatingmonkey]

You said that you agree that this is where we will lie, so I'm interested in who you'd prefer to elim (obviously it's JamesTheNames but I wanna hear what you think about the other people)

[humaneatingmonkey]

Most likely dum and navigatorv

I'm reacting to this. I don't think it's S-S

[humaneatingmonkey]

For Dum, I think doing what he did in the gamestate that we were in was not something scum, even newbscum, would go for. Maybe in a case where it's Micc-Dum, but do you think it's Micc and Dum?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I really wish we had more of Micc here

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: Micc

Teach us how to react to pressure, Micc.

I usually like to start by looking at the wagon and trying to understand why people are voting me. Is their case valid or is there some misunderstanding to be cleared up...are they campaigning for my elimination or just expressing their strongest read for the time being...are they arguing in good faith or just looking for a mid-elimination?

Navigatorv and Fizz Rabb seem to be pretty standard cases of Newbie sees aggressive wagoning and their instinct is to call it scum because scum’s goal is to make mis-eliminations. It’s a superficial level of thinking that basically everyone starts with. I’ve tried to explain how my aggressive wagoning can also be positive for Town, and I think they’ll understand with time.

Salsabil Faria could fall into the same category, but don’t have a great feel yet because her posting has been low substance.

You (HEM) presumably spent the 25 minutes between saying hi and voting me reading the game. You could have any number of motivations for the vote, but until you demonstrate a desire to see me eliminated today I’m going to take it as RVS.

Putting everything together, it doesn’t feel like a wagon with any real momentum and I’m satisfied with the extent I’ve justified my actions. My time tomorrow will be best spent working on making reads, but for now it’s well past bed time.

I have no idea how scum!Micc works but Micc could have shaded me here for going E-1 on him

Although honestly, this is what bothers me with our gamestate because all the reads we have right now are shallow-level stereotypical scumtells and tonereads. i can still see an angle that Fizz Raab, JamesTheNames, and Dum could be town here but they're still our best lynches for the day. We've yet to have posts that I can characterize as perspective slips or open PR hunting. this has me feeling like the scum is among those that aren't posting.

[humaneatingmonkey]

what

[humaneatingmonkey]

the plays you see in newbie games are amazing. it's funny cause I did this shit back then too

[humaneatingmonkey]

So we have about 3 days until the deadline for voting. While it seems like things have been narrowed down, we still don't have a consensus on who to vote for. My proposition is this: if we can't narrow it down so that the majority of town agrees on one person by 12 hours before the deadline, everyone eliminates me. Even though you wouldn't be eliminating scum, you'd still have a higher chance of finding scum on later days which is still a net gain.
Now obviously if I'm scum I could use this opportunity to try and convince everyone to vote for one of the three prime suspects, so if town agrees to this, I'll stop posting unless someone specifically requests a response from me.

i'd rather the day closes to where it naturally would be. it's in these self-motivated choices that gives us the most information. no arranged eliminations please. there's no information gained from that.

[humaneatingmonkey]

can you please explain the motivation for this post? Is it only "Even though you wouldn't be eliminating scum, you'd still have a higher chance of finding scum on later days which is still a net gain" ?

[humaneatingmonkey]

i really think navigatorv is town

[humaneatingmonkey]

And you are wrong if you think I'm scum when I've been way more helpful than HumanEatingMonkey has.

what's your big contribution

[humaneatingmonkey]

Moving to a fast and loose catchup style so I can post while cooking

P3:
I like monkey entrance.

Fizz expecting logic or if everyone is going to cause you frustration on this site. There are some top notch gut players. There are also some people who use logic that goes wayyyyyyy over my head

Orc not getting up in arms about me being at e-1 is interesting

JV here got my heart all aflutter

P4:
I agree with monkeys fizz vote, though am less confident about it. Still would have sheeped at the time.

And then fizz gets SUPER defensive. Wild.

Jacko and Monkey going back and forth did nothing for me

P5:
Navy coming at JV with a baby associative is really neat to see. It's wrong, but I like where their head's at. Doesn't comment on fizz, tho.

Dum muses the idea that micc is a pr, among other things, then votes him anyway. I think this vote is both well thought out and weak, which to me sounds like town. @dum in the future, don't call out if you think someone's a PR, we don't want to tip scum off

Oh Orc tried to hammer

Stopping here for a minute.

why did you stop baby I want you full caught up

[humaneatingmonkey]

Ugh, being placed as scum for no reason whatsoever is pretty stupid if you ask me with no clear evidence of my posts at all. What do I see is scum is someone doing one line posts without any contribution and it seems like the only time he has made more than one line posts is when I called humaneatingmonkey on it. Let's see you do more than that dude. Obviously, I don't see Jackson scum at all with his helpful posts. I don't know if you noticed humaneatingmonkey, but I'm not good at understanding posts sometimes. It takes me a while to fully get it. I have nobody else apart from you that speaks out as scum just at this minute. I have to go through all the posts to clarify a few more posts that aren't scum posts to me.

Fizz Raab is scum. Sheep me. This is what it looks like when you're scum and you don't know how to scumhunt.

[humaneatingmonkey]

They just seem concerned with who looks the smartest and not who got that juicy red PM and I genuinely don't know if that's alignment indicative

This is alignment indicative. It's called not scumhunting

[humaneatingmonkey]

More of Navy either showing great initiative as town leader scum (unlikely, no offense) or putting effort into keeping up with reads and keeping the game moving. Let's call it town.

This is my hesitation as well, but I think we'll need to see more of navy

[humaneatingmonkey]

Actually elim me, I wanna see James reaction.

...do you townread James?

[humaneatingmonkey]

right but like... newbies don't know how sometimes?

fair point. it's very hard to read newbies.

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

"Elim me, let's see James reaction" is a perspective slip. JV has been pursuing James as scum throughout the whole thread and this proposition seems like he thinks James is "bad town". Plus, I think it's emulating navigatorv's proposition to gain some towncred.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I just don't think town!JV would act like this if he thinks this is scum!James. Rather, I think he would be more confident and less frustrated because he's catching scum.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Like the proposition that putting someone at a fake E1 As some kind of scum trap for a newbie seems so far fetched to me.

so you agree?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Actually reading that post where you vote me. And what I was talking about is their reaction to my flip going into day 2.

Yes, and you seem to think that it will give him some sort of stop, but if he's scum, he already knows you're town anyway?

[humaneatingmonkey]

not actually listen

it feels here that you're actually trying to convince them that you're town, instead of catching him as scum, and that's where the frustration is coming from

[humaneatingmonkey]

Except I've found that scum that tunnels the elim finds it hard to make an elegant transition going into the next day.

Is this really it? Do you really believe this? You think he, as scum, is making a bad play right now tunneling you, and that by elim-ing yourself, you're actually going to win this game for yourself?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Your 'feeling' is wrong.

Please explain then

[humaneatingmonkey]

You, as town, lost confidence in a game where you are having a 1v1 with a scum that you think are making bad plays.
I don't believe this.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm sorry JV but I don't read this as genuine.

[humaneatingmonkey]

So explain to me you guys as someone who's never played mafia and want to get better at playing the game; how do you do reads? I want to help, but I don't know how to do this.

he wants to help, but he doesn't know how to do this. he has the self-awareness to understand that he's not helping at all.

here, he seems to think he's more helpful than me.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I was heated and wasn't in the right mind

I don't doubt that you were heated, but I think you were heated because I think you felt like caught scum there.

[humaneatingmonkey]

And you are wrong if you think I'm scum when I've been way more helpful than HumanEatingMonkey has.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I had to deal with a seeming brick wall twice in a row which is spitting ridiculous accusations

Accusations that seem to come from a person you think is scum, not from someone you think is town. Why would you get heated with those?

Man, is this a new meta? Going for vulnerability and self-awareness when caught? It's very hard to engage you when you're agreeing with me and chalking it up as a simple mistake. It's very effective.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm willing to yeet JacksonVirgo or Fizz Raab today.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I know Fizz' answer. I want to know who she thinks is town. That's a much more interesting answer.

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: Micc

Teach us how to react to pressure, Micc.

I usually like to start by looking at the wagon and trying to understand why people are voting me. Is their case valid or is there some misunderstanding to be cleared up...are they campaigning for my elimination or just expressing their strongest read for the time being...are they arguing in good faith or just looking for a mid-elimination?

Navigatorv and Fizz Rabb seem to be pretty standard cases of Newbie sees aggressive wagoning and their instinct is to call it scum because scum’s goal is to make mis-eliminations. It’s a superficial level of thinking that basically everyone starts with. I’ve tried to explain how my aggressive wagoning can also be positive for Town, and I think they’ll understand with time.

Salsabil Faria could fall into the same category, but don’t have a great feel yet because her posting has been low substance.

You (HEM) presumably spent the 25 minutes between saying hi and voting me reading the game. You could have any number of motivations for the vote, but until you demonstrate a desire to see me eliminated today I’m going to take it as RVS.

Putting everything together, it doesn’t feel like a wagon with any real momentum and I’m satisfied with the extent I’ve justified my actions. My time tomorrow will be best spent working on making reads, but for now it’s well past bed time.

I have no idea how scum!Micc works but Micc could have shaded me here for going E-1 on him

[humaneatingmonkey]

Plus, I have the benefit of understanding that Micc isn't really as scummy as he was made out to be. His was the first move to go out of RVS.

[humaneatingmonkey]

can you link? I'm really lazy

[humaneatingmonkey]

You gave this as proof that it wasn't a slip.

But what I saw here was 1. you didn't have them as your scumreads before being frustrated with them 2. you weren't actively pushing them as scum before them 3. you only scumread them for disagreeing with you 4. it didn't end in any way similar to what you have right now.

please tell me what i'm missing

[humaneatingmonkey]

Not to the point that you will make "gambits" where you would want to lynch yourself to see what the reaction of someone you think is scum. Implicitly, I think that's said with the intention that you assume James is town and he would reconsider how bad he's playing if only he saw you flip town.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I understand it. My girlfriend's mad I've been playing too much mafia too.

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: Fizz we're doing this. Much as I wanna put Jacko out of their misery I'm not sure they're flipping red

You're not convinced that he slipped?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Why?

[humaneatingmonkey]

In my experience "slips" are rare and more often they're just people getting reallllyyyyyyy particular about verbage

do you think this is one of those cases where it's about verbiage?

[humaneatingmonkey]

How?

I need to sleep. I'll be back tomorrow

[humaneatingmonkey]

If no one wants a Jackson wagon, I'll put Fizz on E-1. VOTE: Fizz Raab

You need to claim now.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Btw, if Fizz flips red, his partner definitely bussed.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I think so? I guarantee it. Virtually no one is defending Fizz Raab right now and it really is strategically impossible to defend Fizz Raab here as scum.

[humaneatingmonkey]

JV what's with this tone change after you got scumread?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I think you're scum but I'm getting a confusing tone read.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I would have expected that you'll be pushed to a stronger defensive reaction if I called you out, but you mellowed and even went back to have a calmer conversation with James. I can see that you might just be placating aggression towards you when you saw that what you're doing isn't working, but I just don't really know anymore.

[humaneatingmonkey]

This is usually the part that I would push your buttons and get emotional reactions, but I'm hesitating to put you into that spot again because you expressed some remorse and made yourself vulnerable. Honestly, I feel manipulated.

[humaneatingmonkey]

You feel manipulated? What do you mean? Are you saying you're having doubts about your read on me, but throw it up to being manipulated over noticing that everything else isn't pointing towards the same outcome as the original proposed slip would suggest.

I have no idea how you play as scum, nor do I have any idea what kind of emotional range your scumplay has. This might just be good emotional scumplay. What you're doing is enough to make me question my read on you, but I'm not really sure where to proceed from here.

I'm thinking out loud because I can always look back to this moment and remember what I felt like. And maybe others too.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm just saying that pretending to blow a gasket and a subsequent epiphany isn't against the rules to use as scum nor has it been never done before.

[humaneatingmonkey]

The day is ending in less than 48 hours Dum. Might be good to hear more of you then

[humaneatingmonkey]

@HEM are you going to respond to this

I am not very confident with my ability to parse meta-information and applying it to any games so I'm just going to note what you said and come back to it later. Either way, I doubt I can convince everyone to wagon you right now.

[humaneatingmonkey]

There's really no point in waiting for deadline. I think this flips red here. James, go hammer at will.

[humaneatingmonkey]

A hammer is a hammer, regardless of intent. Intent to hammer are just given as a warning to the person in E-1 to give them chance to claim or defend.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Cabd is away, probably.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'll do a re-read soon

[humaneatingmonkey]

NK analysis is more WIFOM than you really need to read the game but it's information nevertheless. Assume scum priority is hunting PR.

[humaneatingmonkey]

First, I would analyze if Johnny indicated anything that he might be PR. If none can be found, assume scum found nothing and killed Johnny based on PoE-control strategy.

I will do my own analysis later on.

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

[humaneatingmonkey]

Also I have small suspicion on HEM from the NK, and then instantly posting to back their own ass up since the top town didn't die.

what is this?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I don't understand it so maybe you could rephrase for me

[humaneatingmonkey]

Why me over navigatorv?

The newbies are asking me how to analyze NK and I told them how I analyze NK. What do you think about this with that context?

Right now I'm trying to suss out if you really believe what you're saying here.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Looking at Micc/JohnnyFarrar, there really isn't anything that might indicate that they're PR.

I read this as them trying to eliminate a vote or someone who would push their wagon. So I dug up their PoE list:

Unwilling:

Navy - mad town no question
Monkey - I agree w/ them so much either they're town or I'm wrong about a lot of stuff
Dum - I got a soft spot for gambit and that fake vote was mwah
Ninja - like I said, I see an effort to read people, but among the high effort people this one seems easiest to fake

Willing:

JV - getting suckered into piss fights and making votes I don't agree with. Nothing particularly scummy other than *vibes*
Rizz - I don't think I'll learn a damn thing even if Rizz is scum and we kill them. They just seem concerned with who looks the smartest and not who got that juicy red PM and I genuinely don't know if that's alignment indicative
James - I see less effort and more word vomit as the thread goes on and their perspective seems forced or obtuse in quite a few spots
Orc - that almost hammer got me on tilt man

I think JV would benefit by this NK but I would imagine JV might be more skilled at hunting PR than this (because I think based on this thread, I can already spot better choices than JohnnyFarrar here) so he might never make this kill.

James on the other hand would also benefit from this NK. I already saw James trying to bait PR yesterday, so maybe they misinterpreted JohnnyFarrar's post as PR-indicative.

Orc would benefit the least because he's on JohnnyFarrar's direct line of sight and a Micc/JohnnyFarrar flip would immediately incriminate him for his "almost hammer".

[humaneatingmonkey]

navigatov and NinjaStore are both in my townblock — we eliminate between Dum, JV, James, and orctin today. I re-read orctin during the night and I didn't like how conservative he was with his votes, but it could be explained by this:

You can see that i tend to put pressure on someone first - gauge their reaction, then look to vote. This whole setup here of people voting to gauge reaction is just backwards to my normal way of thinking and playing where i'm from.

Dum's absence and inactivity and nonchalance near deadline with Faaz' E-1 wagon was sketchy and does not resemble the Dum we knew from early D1 who would make gambits.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Still, I think Dum and James both feel like they're doing more for the town and I can see an actual scumhunting process in broad daylight. I don't think we should elim here today just yet.

[humaneatingmonkey]

JV is loud, but looks like he's mostly interested in protecting himself and making sure he's seen as townie than sorting between slots.
orctin is a big mystery and it's great if we can see more of him today.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I slightly misread the context but I am still slightly at you. My original read was that I was expecting you to die, I did not think anyone else were to die but then you didn't which was weird to me, you then post about the NK probably being scum-hunting which pinged me as trying to make a reason why you didn't die. Which is still possible even with me re-reading the context mind you.

This is a very sketchy post to me because navigator has been more vocally professed as town and has been in everybody's town block more than I have. So, to see him say this, I don't think I believe him.

[humaneatingmonkey]

As I said, NK is information but it's unreliable because it's more WIFOM and it's more reliable to sort players by their play.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Which is still possible even with me re-reading the context mind you.

[humaneatingmonkey]

does it fit or doesn't it

[humaneatingmonkey]

James what do you think of JV?

[humaneatingmonkey]

So we have basically started this day getting straight into it

what would have rather done?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I think JamesTheNames is town.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I don't understand the sudden switch from nobody believing me regarding a JacksonVirgo/Dum pair in day 1, then all of a sudden, Ninja and Orctin both going with it.

Join me in the JacksonVirgo wagon

[humaneatingmonkey]

NinjaStore is town

[humaneatingmonkey]

In my experience, newbscum seldom use "gut" to justify their actions because they're too afraid to seem like they're pulling reads out of their ass so they're more inclined to use "evidence".

[humaneatingmonkey]

That nav quote doesn't give me the same "trying to look like town" vibes as what JV said. The more concerning nav quote is the one I linked last page: 539

This was his answer, which I believe. He doesn't have to be accurate. He doesn't have to be right. I just need to believe that he believes this, and I have no reason not to.

[humaneatingmonkey]

If I'm right that you're town, and I think I'm right that you're town, you need to understand this:

Scumhunting isn't finding who the most fallible townie in the bunch is. Sometimes, scum is the least fallible of the bunch because they're already informed about the game and they know the right answers. You need to look for people who don't look like they believe what they're saying or who don't look like they're sincere in trying to find out who the scum is.

Right now, who would you eliminate and who wouldn't you eliminate?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Having trouble with the game, orctin? Replace-ins are very common in newbie games because not everybody appreciates long-form mafia.

Tell me about your reads.

[humaneatingmonkey]

First of all, why were you so eager to push an elimination on an inactive slot that can't defend itself?

i want you to replace into a slot that already has pressure on it

[humaneatingmonkey]

Second, can anyone else tell me the huge, glaring problem with this reads list?

IIoA

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm down for an orctin wagon

[humaneatingmonkey]

okay catboi. i like where you're getting at. VOTE: orctin

[humaneatingmonkey]

#64 seems like an earnest attempt to make sense of the game at RVS and this one:

This is total setup for me to hammer Micc - he's at E-1 i believe. At the moment he is high on my scum list but ending day early is generally a bad play. I'd rather allow him a chance to post before a hammer vote goes down

I haven't been paying attention to him but when I did today, I'm not impressed. Especially with the "I've been playing this game for years" and this is all that he could give us.

[humaneatingmonkey]

mm

[humaneatingmonkey]

there's something wrong here that I can't put into words yet

[humaneatingmonkey]

tomorrow's a busy day for me so probably no mafia. i have to prepare. good night!

[humaneatingmonkey]

I would need to V/LA until Monday. MOUNTAINOUS workload over the weekend. You guys can wait for me, yes? Yes.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Sorry I had to replace out. Need to focus for an entire week.

Noraa, do we know each other? You mentioned you always scumread me