Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[skitter30]

bingle, mariar, lilith can i interest any of you in voting ss?

[skitter30]

You think SS is gonna flip scum even after the fact basically everyone was okay with his lynch? That just gives me pause.

this never happened. when was everyone ok with his lynch?

@a50 mostly it's like 15 hours since day started and i'm not ready to end teh day yet and i'm proving a point that getting people to vote ss is mysteriously like impossible

[skitter30]

i am not townreading bingle, and i think he can be scum with or without ss being scum

[skitter30]

does it bother u at all that people u don't townread and think are probably scum are on SS?

Yeah i'm working on reconciling the resistance to ss with that

[skitter30]

I dont really think he's done much woth being townread? Why do you townread him?

[skitter30]

I kinda think his spat with me on D1 was towny in hindsight

Could you remind me why you think that spat was townie on his end?

@mariar he wasnt close to being lynched

[skitter30]

he wasn't close to being lynched at any point imo

lilith what do you think of the wagon on you?

[skitter30]

ss how do you feel about lilith rn?

ss did you answer this?
(and if you did, sorry, can you just requote it for me?)

[skitter30]

lilith can you provide an updated readslist?
and maybe you should be pushing blake and/or mena?

[skitter30]

does anybody want to talk with me about whether they think lilith/ss can be svs?

[skitter30]

i'd be interested in hearing!

[skitter30]

yeah i was kinda thinking that lilith's defense of ss was too ~strong~ to come from a partner
but i'm not sure if that's a solid reason

[skitter30]

well her posting at daystart + all of her posting today in general. it's just Not Very Good

i guess i'm wondering if scum go that far to defend a partner

[skitter30]

ouch

sorry :/
it just doesn't feel like what town would be posting today, if that makes sense?

[skitter30]

I’ll take another look at his posting there but if memory serves the basis was that his counterpush on me was bad in a way that I think scum!bingle hopefully would have recognised was bad whereas I can see town bingle getting locked in on me pushing him being scummy and grasping to make the arguments he was

Hmmmm i'm not sure that's town indicative of him?

[skitter30]

mena if we lynch lilith today would you canvas for ss tomorrow irregardless of lilith's alignment if i die?

and bingle's argument was kinda bad and like making a mountain out of a molehill kinda? or focusing on the wrong things? idk it felt weird to me

[skitter30]

pointing out to me that ss had already given his lilith read but i forgot about it when i asked him for it

[skitter30]

i feel like ss's and lilith's defenses of each other are Very Strange and that there's likely at least one scum in the pair because it's just ... a strange take? idk it almost sounds like it's written from a scum perspective

[skitter30]

i think there's at least one scum in ss/lilith but i'm also a little wary that you're townblocking people too fast

[skitter30]

i guess i'm not super content with townblocking bingle and blake rn so i'm feeling like ~ cautious ~ of you trying to do that

[skitter30]

bleh hard game is hard
i feel like we almost have no flips cuz people went for the low-hanging fruit yesterday and the scum nk went missing

i'm feeling paranoid of blake. like she's not in my lynch pool rn but i don't feel comfortable townblocking her either

i'm also confused what lilith and ss are doing here because:
- if they're both scum why is one not bussing the other
- if they're svt why is the s not voting the t
- if they're tvt then like why is the gamestate so weird

ss this might be a weird thing to say but i'm gettng me/titus vibes from you/lilith rn

[skitter30]

ss this might be a weird thing to say but i'm gettng me/titus vibes from you/lilith rn

like this is what's throwing me off here ???

[skitter30]

the titus thing was kinda impulsive and i just kinda ran with it and strengthened it when i realized it was screwing with the gamestate that much

my partner in this scumgame was a lilith/ss hydra (hence i know they'd get the reference)
titus was hard townreading my slot and so i started hard-townreading her for like 2 whole game days and it thoroughly messed with the gamestate because everyone was convinced there was at least one (maybe two) scum in the pair but it somehow created enough force to prevent people from actually lynching either of us

[skitter30]

Okay, what do you make of S_S saying he hasn’t been hard townreading lil and that’s it’s more from her end towards him? And the implication of that on the feeling you have

i guess i don't have an answer to this, i'm just getting similar vibes
and i'm kinda wary that if i give up on ss today it's just not going to happen

[skitter30]

i think there's a decent chance there's a bus driver and i therefore don't want to talk about where i'm intending to shoot / if i'm intending to shoot

[skitter30]

like i want to keep open the possibility of holstering or shooting ss or shooting a {secret scumread that will henceforth not be named} because then hopefully if i'm still around n3 any potential bus driver will have been spent

[skitter30]

i guess just like: ss do you think i should be townreading you here? if i'm awfully wrong and tunneled where am i going wrong and why?

[skitter30]

i'm allowing for that possibility because a50 thinks if there's a bus driver that's the thing i ought to do and i trust his mechanics-sense a lot more than my own

[skitter30]

yes

[skitter30]

also you know that i'm not like ~that creative~ as scum, right?

[skitter30]

i functionally am conftown tbh, and you're being paranoid and vastly overestimating how risky/creative i'd be

[skitter30]

like i don't want to suicide myself via shooting ss and being bus-driven with him
and if i think that's somewhat likely to happen i wouldn't do that

[skitter30]

ok, but i don't want to accidentally suicide so like

unless you're positing that i'm groupscum there being two nk's won't prove that i'm not sk anyways so i'm not sure why you're so focused on making sure there's a confirmable action after last night

[skitter30]

A50, holstering from skitts just lets the scumteam know they can use the theoretical BD as a strongman.

can you eli5?

[skitter30]

OH
ok

i think i'm just going to go with:
- i may or may not holster
- i may or may not shoot ss (or lilith if we lynch ss)
- i may or may not shoot an unnamed third party

and just keep it at that.

and then scum can try to figure out how they want to optimize that ^

[skitter30]

i think mariar / ss is viable btw

[skitter30]

Spoiler:

There's really no way he's groupscum here, he's sk at best and i think he's just town

Ss why didnt you vote gobble earlier?

I think ss voting gobble now, after defending him when he originally claimed sk, is scummy

+1, we still lynch gobbles today

I respect him trying to make a deal, but fundamentally he doesn’t have a town wincon and right now he’s in the weakest negotiating position.

He's in the weakest negotiating position... which means he's not a threat, right?

Since we can unilaterally make him lose, he has to do what we say; even though he says he won't be leashed, if a majority agrees to leash him, he'll have to follow or be lynched. That said, straight-up leashing is a bad idea because bus driver, but it seems perfectly fine to tell him to kill someone scummy and if he doesn't (or if you want to be harsh, if he doesn't hit scum) then we lynch him.

No, then we’re weaker because we’re getting further away from outnumbering the scum and he gets to coast another day because people want to try and flip their scumreads.

This sounds like empty rhetoric to me.

You're talking about him surviving another day as if it's automatically a bad thing. Is it? If we compare lynching him tomorrow to lynching him today, the only difference is that an extra player dies overnight. If that player is > rand scum, then it's good; otherwise, it's bad.

Then, if he killed scum, we can leave him alive one more day to put us back on odds without worrying about losing majority. If he killed town, we might have to lynch him-- and this gives him a powerful incentive to play along and try to hit his strongest scumread.

If you assume that his reads are better than random, there is at the very least a reasonable argument for leaving him alive.

if he thinks you'll shoot town he gets another person closer to lylo without having to do anything

And anyone who wants to lynch him might be scum who thinks he'll shoot scum or take out a future mislynch. What's your point?

There is NO INCENTIVE for the turkey to kill scum because that LITERALLY is playing against his wincon

Like in the world where we mislynch every day and the turkey saves us by shooting 3 scum in a row — what does he think happens, we go “yeah, thanks turkey, we just won’t lynch you so that you can win bc you were so helpful to town” lmao

Saying "there is no incentive to kill three scum" is not the same as saying "there is no incentive to kill one scum."

He has a very real incentive to kill one scum-- we lynch him if he doesn't. Whatever minuscule chance he has to win, it comes from doing whatever we tell him so he doesn't get autolynched.

His progression on gobble doesnt make sense and i dont get why he's voting him now

Because why not vote him when he first claimed sk

If you're sk why dont you just claim vig
If you're groupscum why dont you just claim literally anything else

Are you scum skitt because I’m really not sure that town!you misses the contextual difference here :/

I feel like you’re intentionally sidestepping this by focusing on gobbles btw skitt

I think if he's sk he doesnt claim vt now, and i think if ss wanted to lynch the sk he ought to have when gobble claimed

I'm not sidestepping the issue, i'm being p clear that i think ss is scum taking advantage of thr gobble mess to revitalize that wagon

I just like — if you think that’s what SS is doing then I still don’t see why you would be confused in the first place by SS voting gobbles now but not then?

Because the timing of the vote is bad

I literally just said scum would try to use this to gef a free lynch when they want one and ss's vote looks like just that to me

[skitter30]

i really just want ss and lilith to like ~take real stances on something~

[skitter30]

i guess what i'm finding the weirdest is that neither of them have voted and haven't taken like ~any real stances~ this whole day

[skitter30]

UNVOTE:
just to avoid a hammer but my vote is on in spirit ^

[skitter30]

it's on in spirit. i support pushing for intent. i don't want lilith to like decide now is a great time to vote and then try to play it off like they didn't realize the vc or something

[skitter30]

huh?

[skitter30]

maybe it's just ss and lilith and there's a 2 man scumteam and that's why the game feels so weird

[skitter30]

man i'm starting to feel impatient

[skitter30]

lol

[skitter30]

no hammer before claim plz

[skitter30]

i think we should have gotten a claim first

[skitter30]

yeah fair i just like doing things in the right order

[skitter30]

if he flips bd i'm not going to holster
if he flips anything but bd there is a possibility that i'll holster, shoot lilith, or shoot a ~secret scumread~

[skitter30]

to be fair ... i thought it was a real hammer

[skitter30]

can we not hammer till he has time to come back plz

[skitter30]

no hammer till claim + final reads

[skitter30]

no hammer yet plz

[skitter30]

ss part of why i was scumreading you this game is that you went after the low-hanging fruit in gobbles at just the times i thought scum would, at just the times i thought it was p obvious his actions didn't come from groupscum

[skitter30]

also i'm sorry if i contributed to your lack of enjoyment

[skitter30]

ok a couple of things:
- when he retracted the sk claim you thought he was groupscum or you thought he was sk?
- he retracted when the wagon was at l-5 (and it had been at l-1) so to me if h were scum retracting ... like it was a weird time to retract because the plan had worked and people were giving him some space

[skitter30]

The other thing about gobble is that my only experience with an SK fakeclaim and retraction was Kaede in this game, who claimed SK and later retracted to VT. I was the only one to (correctly) call her groupscum (it was a multiball game but people didn't know that at the time), and she ended up shooting me because she thought I must be the other scumteam slipping knowledge of multiball.

ok i think this would have been a useful thing to know and to explain why you reacted that way and your explanation makes a lot more sense in this context

[skitter30]

ok i maybe don't want to lynch ss anymore
now the trick is to figure out if ss v lilith contains {any} scum and how their alignments explain the weird/stalled gamestate

[skitter30]

VOTE: mariar

[skitter30]

i think in the town!ss universe fire has a lot of scum equity, as does mariar

[skitter30]

i think you made an offhand reference that i didn't bother digging up

but basically to summarize what i thought / am thinking about this:
- your approach to gobbles's sk retraction didn't make sense to me
- i thought it was scummy because i didn't understand where it was coming from
- i pushed you over it
- you give prior context that explains why you would have the reaction you did
- i understand your mindset wrt gobbles as it makes sense in the kaede context
- i don't think it was scummy anymore

so i feel like a large part of why i was scumreading you kinda collapsed so now i to reorient myself

[skitter30]

yeah that's why i'm pivoting off of lilith too because the stalled gamestate kinda points to town!lilith if you're town too imo

[skitter30]

felt wk-y to me
(i was thinking that even while i was scumreading you, it was confusing)

[skitter30]

Bingle what do u think of ss's posting?

[skitter30]

My issue with him pushing gobbles was never about the what but the how.

? What does this mean?

[skitter30]

Skitter town still. She doesn't seem like she wants to talk to me.

I'm not sure what gave you this impression?

[skitter30]

u sometimes talk about me in thread while i am active posting and not engaging with me. And I would think u would want ot engage me when ur put me in ur poe.

oh, sorry :/
is there something in particular you wanna talk about?

i'm kinda thinking that if ss is town here you're kinda capitalizing on my tunnel to push him

[skitter30]

didn't i have a scumread on ss before u?

it was just around the same time

[skitter30]

ok that is ... not particularly helpful

[skitter30]

but i remember thinking back when u said "omg if ss flips town i think its fire" in the back of my mind i was thinking same thing about u and made my tr of u stronger.

i'm confused how that made your townread of me stronger?

originally i thought you seeing the same things i did at roughly the same time was townie (i don't think you said them first, i'm p sure i did), but as i think about it and as my reads change i'm wondering if you're using me to push your agenda

[skitter30]

When I see reasons for why I'm scum I'll responded to them.

- your reads were utterly wrong yesterday.
- that all by itself is not a major issue, but you're not really using the flips/my claim to reasses the game state and figure out who you should be pushing
- you seem very complacent with the current gamestate

[skitter30]

ss does lilith like randomly lose interest in town games?

[skitter30]

- your reads were utterly wrong yesterday.
- that all by itself is not a major issue, but you're not really using the flips/my claim to reasses the game state and figure out who you should be pushing
- you seem very complacent with the current gamestate

First point isn't a reason to scumread someone
Second one is wrong. If I really didn't care or want to relook at the game I would be hard pushing Blake right now.
I'm using today to look at flips and see where I need to look at. So I'm taking a back seat. If you think that's scummy then oh well.

i mean the qualifier on the second point indicated that by itself i didn't think that the first point was a reason to scumread you
and this is the first that i've heard about you wanting to push blake? like if you're not showing where you're reassesing in thread it's kinda hard for me to see it ... ?

[skitter30]

I'm not going to apply experience from four years ago on that question, so the sample size is really too small. I think she's only been town once since returning (not counting a hydra game that I think she barely participated in), and she died N1.

fair enough, i mostly asked cuz her motivation majorly dropped in city too

[skitter30]

ok i apparently misremembered that you've said that, sorry
i don't know who to vote rn

[skitter30]

Let me kill the one and only player in the game townreading me after hard tunneling a VT flip.

Given that i'm claiming the kill you realize this logic doesnt make sense, right?

[skitter30]

VOTE: bingle

[skitter30]

can you summarize the changes?

[skitter30]

i don't know

[skitter30]

it kinda boils down to:
i don't know where to vote rn and i'm trying out different things

i think there's a decent chance ss is town and that i was tunneled
lilith ... man i really don't know but like a lot of what's bothering me about her is her level of engagement but like that can be explained by irl so i'm not sure how much i'm going to get out of pushing her rn + the gamestate was ~wild~ yesterday if lilith and ss are tvs
mariar ... i'm not sure if what i dislike is just her feeling ~disengaged~ and i'm not sure if that's scummy. i also don't think pressuring her will necessarily prompt her to change what she's doing rn
bingle i need to get a better read on

[skitter30]

bingle i need to get a better read on

Why will voting bingle help you get a better read there?

no i don't particularly still think ss is scum, i'm explaining that my read changed
and idk voting people seems to push people to do things that make them easier to read?

[skitter30]

Of course, he may not feel the need to do it because the town is doing scum's work for them,

ok but in the town!ss and town!lilith universes that townie would be me, no?
i'm not sure why this would necessitate a scum in the townreads

[skitter30]

i'm not following? i think nearly anybody can be scum with bingle
i don't have any particular anti-associatives for him

[skitter30]

bingle/lilith?

[skitter30]

that's why this is confusing

[skitter30]

vla for a few days, as i am sick :/

I will try to catch up soonish

[skitter30]

The most obvious town after this would normally be Bingle, but I'm actually a lot less certain about his alignment mainly because of something specific he mentioned a bit earlier.

I will dig out quotes sometime later to be sure that I'm remembering correctly.

if you haven't done the bolded yet, can you do so ?

biiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnggggggggglllllllllleeeeeee should i be voting you rn? i was kinda hoping for some kind of reaction .

[skitter30]

hat means I need to break into the random townblock that has been made and quite frankly that isn't going to happen with how people see me at the moment.

in what way is the townbloc random and/or why do you disagree with it?

[skitter30]

Like I am waiting for some points against me along the lines of: 'You pushed gobbles as scum' and that is a very valid reason I can think to scumread me.

you called me scum for saying that way back when

[skitter30]

in other news, i attempted to run errands for the first time since quarantine started, which turned into an unmitigated disaster. i’m now stranded and not really sure how i’m going to get home? my train is all fucked up so it’s probably going to take me two hours to get home, and i’m carrying three large and extremely heavy bags. so today was/is fun

oh dear
i hope you managed to get home ok!
remind me why your'e scumreading/voting blake again?

[skitter30]

does anybody else think bingle/mariar could be a thing?

[skitter30]

i mean i guess if the person townreading me the most votes me i would ... maybe try to do something about it?

[skitter30]

saaaaaaaaaaaaaame

should i vote mariar?

[skitter30]

Like I am waiting for some points against me along the lines of: 'You pushed gobbles as scum' and that is a very valid reason I can think to scumread me.

you called me scum for saying that way back when

i just want to highlight this because way back 100 pages ago when mariar first pushed gobbles i said hte push was awful and she called me scum for pushing her back for her push on him

[skitter30]

hey skitter if I said (MariaR, Blake, Bingle) what would you say you thought of that?

at least one scum in that group, i would say

[skitter30]

ss do u think it's more likely that lilith got bussed or that you're both tvt

pedit i don't think it's 3/3

[skitter30]

feels too ~neat~
everyone's reads look very similar to each other (even the people in group), which points to me that there's probably a scum in the townbloc

[skitter30]

idk isn't it weird that {me, you, blake, bingle} have fairly similar readslists?

[skitter30]

well more which gamestate seems more likely to you, but yeah that's basically what i was going for

[skitter30]

idk isn't it weird that {me, you, blake, bingle} have fairly similar readslists?

I... just proposed (Maria, Blake, bingle) as a solve? When I say townbloc I mean (you, me, datisi, A50, S_S)

i'm not sure what you're trying to say here
fire is also a poe scumread btw

[skitter30]

vla for a few days, as i am sick :/

I will try to catch up soonish

@ofrhz

[skitter30]

I pointed out that when I say townbloc I'm not including (Blake, bingle) and thought that was clear from including them in a solve with Maria right before this?

oh sorry those thoughts were not necessarily connected

basically, i think the gamestate is weird if {townreads - i.e. you and me} and {scumreads - i.e. bingle and blake} have similar readslists
i don't know what exactly it implies (probably that there's scum in the townbloc) but i'm making note of it because something isn't right here

[skitter30]

like take a look at blake's last readslist and then also bingle's, and then compare that to mine and yours

[skitter30]

i feel like blake would make more of an effort to appear engaged if she were scum tbh

[skitter30]

also skitter, hope you feel better!

ty, me too

[skitter30]

pedit: @skitter what makes you say that?

she cares a lot more about appearances as scum, and to like appear invested and townie
whereas if town she doesn't care as much

i'm like 95% certain i've discussed this phenomenon with her too

[skitter30]

and in jazz mafia's dead thread too i think
i also feel like i discussed it with you in-game somewhere but i don't know where
i am going to say that this is my main reason to give you townpoints, which doesn't make it a super solid read

i'm kinda maybe thinking about voting lilith

[skitter30]

i'm realizing that i don't know if i have a good reason to tr you

[skitter30]

i kinda want to vote mariar tho
i'm feeling very indecisive today

[skitter30]

Like idm if you wanna wait to see what maria produces today but it would have to be quite something for me to want to change at this point

yeah i wanna see what she says today but i'm leaning voting there, yes

[skitter30]

i kinda want to vote mariar tho
i'm feeling very indecisive today

Yes. You are. And I think it’s the worst thing for the gamestate.


Pick a couple of people whose flip you think will be informative and flip them.

i know, sorry :/
i'm working on it

[skitter30]

I knew if I opened my mouth and said I doubted the townblock

do u have someone in particular in mind?

[skitter30]

so you disagree with the townbloc but you don't know what's wrong with it, is that right?

[skitter30]

blake u think marar is town?

[skitter30]

Also, why holster? Well, aside from finding out if there is a SK, scum know we have ONE PR at most. That could be a Tracker, for instance. So they wait and see if they can spot that PR if there were no NKs and turn the game to mountainous and not fear being caught by night action at all.

I dont think they holstered, but i think the scum nk got lost via doc/jk/hider, etc
If lilith is scum there isnt a strongman
And i'm coming around to voting her, i think

[skitter30]

I think i still like my bingle vote, but i am warming to the idea of voting lilith

[skitter30]

doctor/jk/hider/commuter.......

This slips that if she's scum, scum dont have a joat ^

And yeah @blake i looked and i think i agree with u

VOTE: lilith
L-1 and all that jazz

Plz no hammer without a claim, final thoughts, etc

Today really was quite odd if lilith/ss are svt

[skitter30]

Skitt, you never said if you thought I was tunnelling here, I don’t think

i don't particularly think you're tunneled, no

[skitter30]

UNVOTE: for a minute
ngl i think that vengeful is a bit suspect? odds of there being 2 K prs aren't super high, right?

[skitter30]

i don't want to commit to vigging her cuz if we dont' hit exactly bd i'm functionally suiciding if scum have one

[skitter30]

blake you still think lilith is scum?

[skitter30]

the probability of 'getting two heads' is different than the probability of 'getting two heads knowing that you have at least one'

lilith you're saying you'd venge blake?

[skitter30]

do you have anything in your iso that would point to you playing as a venge
like is there anything you can point to that would make this more likely to be true, if that makes sense?

[skitter30]

ok:
- i think that lilith's play is probably still scummy
- i think that another k isn't super likely
- if she's scum the venge is irrelevant
- if she's town and lynch her we probably want to optimize the venge
- if she's town blake's unvote is scummy imo

[skitter30]

oh and
- i still think lilith/ss being tvs is bizarre in that gamestate and would most likely be explained by a very small scumteam, including someone on the ss wagon

[skitter30]

i feel like lilith probably is town but that lynching her might be a good idea anyways?
- i can't commit to vigging her due to the potential bus driver
- if she's town we get an extra kill that can't be interfered with
- the ~confusion~ about her slot will be resolved

[skitter30]

@ofrhz, just to check, can a bus driver affect a vengeshot?

[skitter30]

is the probability of at least one K

1 - (5/6)^7 ?

pedit i mean i would have been p amneable to venging mariar ... i didn't say at any point i thought you were ncessarily the best venge

[skitter30]

ah ...
hmmm ....

ok. do we have lilith venge maybe in {mariar, fire, bingle}, then?

[skitter30]

there's 6 possible letters and we need them to not be K (i.e. there are 5 'allowable' values) seven times for there to be no K's

probably bingle

i'm not sure you're flipping scum though

[skitter30]

i think we'd either get scum or the chance at a vengeshot that can't be interfered with by scum
so i think lynching lilith is probably the best move

[skitter30]

why mariar over bingle?

[skitter30]

i mean i guess i see what your'e saying but i don't scumread her as much as you do, overall

[skitter30]

i don't think that lilith should target blake
i can understand why you'd be more worried about me being sk in the event that lilith is venge but i'm probably just going to ignore this until/unless mass paranoia sets in

[skitter30]

is the probability of at least one K

1 - (5/6)^7 ?

oh wait this is wrong since we're not literally rolling letters

1 - (9/10) ^ 7

i think ?

[skitter30]

blake u think marar is town?

blake how confident in this are you?

[skitter30]

sorry! you're right, my mistake!

[skitter30]

{a50}
{mena}
{ss}
{dats, blake}
{pp}
{lilith} - idk/null
{mariar, fire, bingle}

i'd want someone in the last tier vigged, and there's absolutely scum in my townreads, i think

[skitter30]

lilith is like the middle

[skitter30]

i kinda suck at probability

[skitter30]

i took multiple probability classes in college and remember very little of it :/

[skitter30]

great game everyone! thanks ofrhz for modding
mena don't be too hard on yourself

[skitter30]

@ofrhz
Pts?