Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!


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Post Post #2734 (isolation #400) » Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:09 am

Post by skitter30 »

bingle, mariar, lilith can i interest any of you in voting ss?
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2737 (isolation #401) » Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:35 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 2735, MariaR wrote:You think SS is gonna flip scum even after the fact basically everyone was okay with his lynch? That just gives me pause.
this never happened. when was everyone ok with his lynch?

@a50 mostly it's like 15 hours since day started and i'm not ready to end teh day yet and i'm proving a point that getting people to vote ss is mysteriously like impossible
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2741 (isolation #402) » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:28 pm

Post by skitter30 »

i am not townreading bingle, and i think he can be scum with or without ss being scum
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
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Post Post #2745 (isolation #403) » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:30 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 2742, Firebringer wrote:does it bother u at all that people u don't townread and think are probably scum are on SS?
Yeah i'm working on reconciling the resistance to ss with that
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
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Post Post #2747 (isolation #404) » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:19 pm

Post by skitter30 »

I dont really think he's done much woth being townread? Why do you townread him?
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

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'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2751 (isolation #405) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:25 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 2748, Menalque wrote:I kinda think his spat with me on D1 was towny in hindsight
Could you remind me why you think that spat was townie on his end?

@mariar he wasnt close to being lynched
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

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'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2753 (isolation #406) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:17 am

Post by skitter30 »

he wasn't close to being lynched at any point imo

lilith what do you think of the wagon on you?
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'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2759 (isolation #407) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:04 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 2632, skitter30 wrote:ss how do you feel about lilith rn?
ss did you answer this?
(and if you did, sorry, can you just requote it for me?)
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2760 (isolation #408) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:05 am

Post by skitter30 »

lilith can you provide an updated readslist?
and maybe you should be pushing blake and/or mena?
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2761 (isolation #409) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:16 am

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does anybody want to talk with me about whether they think lilith/ss can be svs?
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

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'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2763 (isolation #410) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:18 am

Post by skitter30 »

i'd be interested in hearing!
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Post Post #2765 (isolation #411) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:31 am

Post by skitter30 »

yeah i was kinda thinking that lilith's defense of ss was too ~strong~ to come from a partner
but i'm not sure if that's a solid reason
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

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'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2767 (isolation #412) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:51 am

Post by skitter30 »

well her posting at daystart + all of her posting today in general. it's just Not Very Good

i guess i'm wondering if scum go that far to defend a partner
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

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Post Post #2773 (isolation #413) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:01 am

Post by skitter30 »

sorry :/
it just doesn't feel like what town would be posting today, if that makes sense?
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

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'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2789 (isolation #414) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:11 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 2775, Menalque wrote:I’ll take another look at his posting there but if memory serves the basis was that his counterpush on me was bad in a way that I think scum!bingle hopefully would have recognised was bad whereas I can see town bingle getting locked in on me pushing him being scummy and grasping to make the arguments he was
Hmmmm i'm not sure that's town indicative of him?
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2795 (isolation #415) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:22 am

Post by skitter30 »

mena if we lynch lilith today would you canvas for ss tomorrow irregardless of lilith's alignment if i die?

and bingle's argument was kinda bad and like making a mountain out of a molehill kinda? or focusing on the wrong things? idk it felt weird to me
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
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Post Post #2797 (isolation #416) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:24 am

Post by skitter30 »

pointing out to me that ss had already given his lilith read but i forgot about it when i asked him for it
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
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Post Post #2799 (isolation #417) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:27 am

Post by skitter30 »

i feel like ss's and lilith's defenses of each other are Very Strange and that there's likely at least one scum in the pair because it's just ... a strange take? idk it almost sounds like it's written from a scum perspective
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
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Post Post #2803 (isolation #418) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:31 am

Post by skitter30 »

i think there's at least one scum in ss/lilith but i'm also a little wary that you're townblocking people too fast
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
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Post Post #2812 (isolation #419) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:42 am

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i guess i'm not super content with townblocking bingle and blake rn so i'm feeling like ~ cautious ~ of you trying to do that
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2819 (isolation #420) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:48 am

Post by skitter30 »

bleh hard game is hard
i feel like we almost have no flips cuz people went for the low-hanging fruit yesterday and the scum nk went missing

i'm feeling paranoid of blake. like she's not in my lynch pool rn but i don't feel comfortable townblocking her either

i'm also confused what lilith and ss are doing here because:
- if they're both scum why is one not bussing the other
- if they're svt why is the s not voting the t
- if they're tvt then like why is the gamestate so weird

ss this might be a weird thing to say but i'm gettng me/titus vibes from you/lilith rn
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
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Post Post #2826 (isolation #421) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:52 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 2819, skitter30 wrote:ss this might be a weird thing to say but i'm gettng me/titus vibes from you/lilith rn
like this is what's throwing me off here ???
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2833 (isolation #422) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:57 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 2695, skitter30 wrote:the titus thing was kinda impulsive and i just kinda ran with it and strengthened it when i realized it was screwing with the gamestate that much
my partner in this scumgame was a lilith/ss hydra (hence i know they'd get the reference)
titus was hard townreading my slot and so i started hard-townreading her for like 2 whole game days and it thoroughly messed with the gamestate because everyone was convinced there was at least one (maybe two) scum in the pair but it somehow created enough force to prevent people from actually lynching either of us
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
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Post Post #2845 (isolation #423) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:25 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 2839, Menalque wrote:Okay, what do you make of S_S saying he hasn’t been hard townreading lil and that’s it’s more from her end towards him? And the implication of that on the feeling you have
i guess i don't have an answer to this, i'm just getting similar vibes
and i'm kinda wary that if i give up on ss today it's just not going to happen
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

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'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2847 (isolation #424) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:28 am

Post by skitter30 »

i think there's a decent chance there's a bus driver and i therefore don't want to talk about where i'm intending to shoot / if i'm intending to shoot
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2848 (isolation #425) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:29 am

Post by skitter30 »

like i want to keep open the possibility of holstering or shooting ss or shooting a {secret scumread that will henceforth not be named} because then hopefully if i'm still around n3 any potential bus driver will have been spent
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
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Post Post #2850 (isolation #426) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:42 am

Post by skitter30 »

i guess just like: ss do you think i should be townreading you here? if i'm awfully wrong and tunneled where am i going wrong and why?
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2852 (isolation #427) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:45 am

Post by skitter30 »

i'm allowing for that possibility because a50 thinks if there's a bus driver that's the thing i ought to do and i trust his mechanics-sense a lot more than my own
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'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2855 (isolation #428) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:49 am

Post by skitter30 »

yes
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'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

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Post Post #2857 (isolation #429) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:49 am

Post by skitter30 »

also you know that i'm not like ~that creative~ as scum, right?
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Post Post #2858 (isolation #430) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:50 am

Post by skitter30 »

i functionally am conftown tbh, and you're being paranoid and vastly overestimating how risky/creative i'd be
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Post Post #2860 (isolation #431) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:56 am

Post by skitter30 »

like i don't want to suicide myself via shooting ss and being bus-driven with him
and if i think that's somewhat likely to happen i wouldn't do that
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Post Post #2862 (isolation #432) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:13 am

Post by skitter30 »

ok, but i don't want to accidentally suicide so like

unless you're positing that i'm groupscum there being two nk's won't prove that i'm not sk anyways so i'm not sure why you're so focused on making sure there's a confirmable action after last night
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Post Post #2871 (isolation #433) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:03 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 2870, Bingle wrote:A50, holstering from skitts just lets the scumteam know they can use the theoretical BD as a strongman.
can you eli5?
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Post Post #2875 (isolation #434) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:12 am

Post by skitter30 »

OH
ok

i think i'm just going to go with:
- i may or may not holster
- i may or may not shoot ss (or lilith if we lynch ss)
- i may or may not shoot an unnamed third party

and just keep it at that.

and then scum can try to figure out how they want to optimize that ^
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Post Post #2952 (isolation #435) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:47 pm

Post by skitter30 »

i think mariar / ss is viable btw
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Post Post #2954 (isolation #436) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:58 pm

Post by skitter30 »

Spoiler:
In post 1678, skitter30 wrote:There's really no way he's groupscum here, he's sk at best and i think he's just town

Ss why didnt you vote gobble earlier?
In post 1695, skitter30 wrote:I think ss voting gobble now, after defending him when he originally claimed sk, is scummy
In post 1699, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1314, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1266, Menalque wrote:+1, we still lynch gobbles today

I respect him trying to make a deal, but fundamentally he doesn’t have a town wincon and right now he’s in the weakest negotiating position.
He's in the weakest negotiating position... which means he's not a threat, right?

Since we can unilaterally make him lose, he has to do what we say; even though he says he won't be leashed, if a majority agrees to leash him, he'll have to follow or be lynched. That said, straight-up leashing is a bad idea because bus driver, but it seems perfectly fine to tell him to kill someone scummy and if he doesn't (or if you want to be harsh, if he doesn't hit scum) then we lynch him.
In post 1333, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1322, Menalque wrote:No, then we’re weaker because we’re getting further away from outnumbering the scum and he gets to coast another day because people want to try and flip their scumreads.
This sounds like empty rhetoric to me.

You're talking about him surviving another day as if it's automatically a bad thing. Is it? If we compare lynching him tomorrow to lynching him today, the only difference is that an extra player dies overnight. If that player is > rand scum, then it's good; otherwise, it's bad.

Then, if he killed scum, we can leave him alive one more day to put us back on odds without worrying about losing majority. If he killed town, we might have to lynch him-- and this gives him a powerful incentive to play along and try to hit his strongest scumread.

If you assume that his reads are better than random, there is at the very least a reasonable argument for leaving him alive.
In post 1339, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1338, skitter30 wrote:if he thinks you'll shoot town he gets another person closer to lylo without having to do anything
And anyone who wants to lynch him might be scum who thinks he'll shoot scum or take out a future mislynch. What's your point?
In post 1370, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1354, Menalque wrote:There is NO INCENTIVE for the turkey to kill scum because that LITERALLY is playing against his wincon

Like in the world where we mislynch every day and the turkey saves us by shooting 3 scum in a row — what does he think happens, we go “yeah, thanks turkey, we just won’t lynch you so that you can win bc you were so helpful to town” lmao
Saying "there is no incentive to kill three scum" is not the same as saying "there is no incentive to kill one scum."

He has a very real incentive to kill one scum-- we lynch him if he doesn't. Whatever minuscule chance he has to win, it comes from doing whatever we tell him so he doesn't get autolynched.
His progression on gobble doesnt make sense and i dont get why he's voting him now
In post 1702, skitter30 wrote:Because why not vote him when he first claimed sk
In post 1708, skitter30 wrote:If you're sk why dont you just claim vig
If you're groupscum why dont you just claim literally anything else
In post 1723, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1720, Menalque wrote:
In post 1705, Menalque wrote:Are you scum skitt because I’m really not sure that town!you misses the contextual difference here :/
I feel like you’re intentionally sidestepping this by focusing on gobbles btw skitt
I think if he's sk he doesnt claim vt now, and i think if ss wanted to lynch the sk he ought to have when gobble claimed

I'm not sidestepping the issue, i'm being p clear that i think ss is scum taking advantage of thr gobble mess to revitalize that wagon
In post 1745, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1733, Menalque wrote:I just like — if you think that’s what SS is doing then I still don’t see why you would be confused in the first place by SS voting gobbles now but not then?
Because the timing of the vote is bad

I literally just said scum would try to use this to gef a free lynch when they want one and ss's vote looks like just that to me
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Post Post #2955 (isolation #437) » Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:13 pm

Post by skitter30 »

i really just want ss and lilith to like ~take real stances on something~
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Post Post #2987 (isolation #438) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:29 am

Post by skitter30 »

i guess what i'm finding the weirdest is that neither of them have voted and haven't taken like ~any real stances~ this whole day
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Post Post #2990 (isolation #439) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:32 am

Post by skitter30 »

UNVOTE:
just to avoid a hammer but my vote is on in spirit ^
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Post Post #2995 (isolation #440) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:34 am

Post by skitter30 »

it's on in spirit. i support pushing for intent. i don't want lilith to like decide now is a great time to vote and then try to play it off like they didn't realize the vc or something
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Post Post #3001 (isolation #441) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:37 am

Post by skitter30 »

huh?
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Post Post #3006 (isolation #442) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:38 am

Post by skitter30 »

maybe it's just ss and lilith and there's a 2 man scumteam and that's why the game feels so weird
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Post Post #3020 (isolation #443) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:47 am

Post by skitter30 »

man i'm starting to feel impatient
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Post Post #3030 (isolation #444) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:52 am

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lol
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Post Post #3040 (isolation #445) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:58 am

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no hammer before claim plz
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Post Post #3046 (isolation #446) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:59 am

Post by skitter30 »

i think we should have gotten a claim first
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Post Post #3048 (isolation #447) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:01 am

Post by skitter30 »

yeah fair i just like doing things in the right order
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Post Post #3052 (isolation #448) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:03 am

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if he flips bd i'm not going to holster
if he flips anything but bd there is a possibility that i'll holster, shoot lilith, or shoot a ~secret scumread~
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Post Post #3064 (isolation #449) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:08 am

Post by skitter30 »

to be fair ... i thought it was a real hammer
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Post Post #3067 (isolation #450) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:09 am

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can we not hammer till he has time to come back plz
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Post Post #3072 (isolation #451) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:10 am

Post by skitter30 »

no hammer till claim + final reads
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Post Post #3085 (isolation #452) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:55 am

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no hammer yet plz
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Post Post #3086 (isolation #453) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:57 am

Post by skitter30 »

ss part of why i was scumreading you this game is that you went after the low-hanging fruit in gobbles at just the times i thought scum would, at just the times i thought it was p obvious his actions didn't come from groupscum
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Post Post #3087 (isolation #454) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:58 am

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also i'm sorry if i contributed to your lack of enjoyment :(
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Post Post #3092 (isolation #455) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:05 am

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ok a couple of things:
- when he retracted the sk claim you thought he was groupscum or you thought he was sk?
- he retracted when the wagon was at l-5 (and it had been at l-1) so to me if h were scum retracting ... like it was a weird time to retract because the plan had worked and people were giving him some space
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Post Post #3094 (isolation #456) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:06 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3090, Something_Smart wrote:The other thing about gobble is that my only experience with an SK fakeclaim and retraction was Kaede in this game, who claimed SK and later retracted to VT. I was the only one to (correctly) call her groupscum (it was a multiball game but people didn't know that at the time), and she ended up shooting me because she thought I must be the other scumteam slipping knowledge of multiball.
ok i think this would have been a useful thing to know and to explain why you reacted that way and your explanation makes a lot more sense in this context
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Post Post #3097 (isolation #457) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:09 am

Post by skitter30 »

ok i maybe don't want to lynch ss anymore
now the trick is to figure out if ss v lilith contains {any} scum and how their alignments explain the weird/stalled gamestate
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Post Post #3099 (isolation #458) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:09 am

Post by skitter30 »

VOTE: mariar
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Post Post #3100 (isolation #459) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:11 am

Post by skitter30 »

i think in the town!ss universe fire has a lot of scum equity, as does mariar
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Post Post #3105 (isolation #460) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:20 am

Post by skitter30 »

i think you made an offhand reference that i didn't bother digging up

but basically to summarize what i thought / am thinking about this:
- your approach to gobbles's sk retraction didn't make sense to me
- i thought it was scummy because i didn't understand where it was coming from
- i pushed you over it
- you give prior context that explains why you would have the reaction you did
- i understand your mindset wrt gobbles as it makes sense in the kaede context
- i don't think it was scummy anymore

so i feel like a large part of why i was scumreading you kinda collapsed so now i to reorient myself
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Post Post #3106 (isolation #461) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:20 am

Post by skitter30 »

yeah that's why i'm pivoting off of lilith too because the stalled gamestate kinda points to town!lilith if you're town too imo
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Post Post #3108 (isolation #462) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:23 am

Post by skitter30 »

felt wk-y to me
(i was thinking that even while i was scumreading you, it was confusing)
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Post Post #3120 (isolation #463) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:55 am

Post by skitter30 »

Bingle what do u think of ss's posting?
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Post Post #3124 (isolation #464) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:05 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3121, Bingle wrote:My issue with him pushing gobbles was never about the what but the how.
? What does this mean?
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Post Post #3139 (isolation #465) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:37 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3130, Firebringer wrote:Skitter town still. She doesn't seem like she wants to talk to me.
I'm not sure what gave you this impression?
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Post Post #3146 (isolation #466) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:21 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3143, Firebringer wrote:u sometimes talk about me in thread while i am active posting and not engaging with me. And I would think u would want ot engage me when ur put me in ur poe.
oh, sorry :/
is there something in particular you wanna talk about?

i'm kinda thinking that if ss is town here you're kinda capitalizing on my tunnel to push him
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Post Post #3151 (isolation #467) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:28 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3147, Firebringer wrote:didn't i have a scumread on ss before u?
it was just around the same time
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Post Post #3161 (isolation #468) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:20 pm

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ok that is ... not particularly helpful
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Post Post #3167 (isolation #469) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:49 pm

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In post 3152, Firebringer wrote:but i remember thinking back when u said "omg if ss flips town i think its fire" in the back of my mind i was thinking same thing about u and made my tr of u stronger.
i'm confused how that made your townread of me stronger?

originally i thought you seeing the same things i did at roughly the same time was townie (i don't think you said them first, i'm p sure i did), but as i think about it and as my reads change i'm wondering if you're using me to push your agenda
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Post Post #3169 (isolation #470) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:50 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3163, MariaR wrote:When I see reasons for why I'm scum I'll responded to them.
- your reads were utterly wrong yesterday.
- that all by itself is not a major issue, but you're not really using the flips/my claim to reasses the game state and figure out who you should be pushing
- you seem very complacent with the current gamestate
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Post Post #3170 (isolation #471) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:51 pm

Post by skitter30 »

ss does lilith like randomly lose interest in town games?
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Post Post #3175 (isolation #472) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:57 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3171, MariaR wrote:
In post 3169, skitter30 wrote:- your reads were utterly wrong yesterday.
- that all by itself is not a major issue, but you're not really using the flips/my claim to reasses the game state and figure out who you should be pushing
- you seem very complacent with the current gamestate
First point isn't a reason to scumread someone
Second one is wrong. If I really didn't care or want to relook at the game I would be hard pushing Blake right now.
I'm using today to look at flips and see where I need to look at. So I'm taking a back seat. If you think that's scummy then oh well.
i mean the qualifier on the second point indicated that by itself i didn't think that the first point was a reason to scumread you
and this is the first that i've heard about you wanting to push blake? like if you're not showing where you're reassesing in thread it's kinda hard for me to see it ... ?
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Post Post #3176 (isolation #473) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:58 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3172, Something_Smart wrote:I'm not going to apply experience from four years ago on that question, so the sample size is really too small. I think she's only been town once since returning (not counting a hydra game that I think she barely participated in), and she died N1.
fair enough, i mostly asked cuz her motivation majorly dropped in city too
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Post Post #3181 (isolation #474) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:10 pm

Post by skitter30 »

ok i apparently misremembered that you've said that, sorry
i don't know who to vote rn
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Post Post #3208 (isolation #475) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:56 pm

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In post 3189, MariaR wrote:Let me kill the one and only player in the game townreading me after hard tunneling a VT flip.
Given that i'm claiming the kill you realize this logic doesnt make sense, right?
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Post Post #3209 (isolation #476) » Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:58 pm

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VOTE: bingle
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Post Post #3213 (isolation #477) » Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:54 am

Post by skitter30 »

can you summarize the changes?
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Post Post #3215 (isolation #478) » Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:17 am

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i don't know
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Post Post #3218 (isolation #479) » Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:25 am

Post by skitter30 »

it kinda boils down to:
i don't know where to vote rn and i'm trying out different things

i think there's a decent chance ss is town and that i was tunneled
lilith ... man i really don't know but like a lot of what's bothering me about her is her level of engagement but like that can be explained by irl so i'm not sure how much i'm going to get out of pushing her rn + the gamestate was ~wild~ yesterday if lilith and ss are tvs
mariar ... i'm not sure if what i dislike is just her feeling ~disengaged~ and i'm not sure if that's scummy. i also don't think pressuring her will necessarily prompt her to change what she's doing rn
bingle i need to get a better read on
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Post Post #3223 (isolation #480) » Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:41 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3221, Menalque wrote:
In post 3218, skitter30 wrote:bingle i need to get a better read on
Why will voting bingle help you get a better read there?
no i don't particularly still think ss is scum, i'm explaining that my read changed
and idk voting people seems to push people to do things that make them easier to read?
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Post Post #3247 (isolation #481) » Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:52 am

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In post 3245, Almost50 wrote:Of course, he may not feel the need to do it because the town is doing scum's work for them,
ok but in the town!ss and town!lilith universes that townie would be me, no?
i'm not sure why this would necessitate a scum in the townreads
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Post Post #3250 (isolation #482) » Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:00 am

Post by skitter30 »

i'm not following? i think nearly anybody can be scum with bingle
i don't have any particular anti-associatives for him
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Post Post #3252 (isolation #483) » Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:15 am

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bingle/lilith?
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Post Post #3257 (isolation #484) » Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:53 am

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that's why this is confusing
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Post Post #3327 (isolation #485) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 2:43 pm

Post by skitter30 »

vla for a few days, as i am sick :/

I will try to catch up soonish
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Post Post #3329 (isolation #486) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:40 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3260, Blake Belladonna wrote:The most obvious town after this would normally be Bingle, but I'm actually a lot less certain about his alignment mainly because of something specific he mentioned a bit earlier.
I will dig out quotes sometime later to be sure that I'm remembering correctly.
if you haven't done the bolded yet, can you do so ?

biiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnggggggggglllllllllleeeeeee should i be voting you rn? i was kinda hoping for some kind of reaction .
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Post Post #3331 (isolation #487) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:45 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3280, MariaR wrote:hat means I need to break into the random townblock that has been made and quite frankly that isn't going to happen with how people see me at the moment.
in what way is the townbloc random and/or why do you disagree with it?
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Post Post #3332 (isolation #488) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:45 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3281, MariaR wrote:Like I am waiting for some points against me along the lines of: 'You pushed gobbles as scum' and that is a very valid reason I can think to scumread me.
you called me scum for saying that way back when
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Post Post #3333 (isolation #489) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:51 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3323, lilith2013 wrote:in other news, i attempted to run errands for the first time since quarantine started, which turned into an unmitigated disaster. i’m now stranded and not really sure how i’m going to get home? my train is all fucked up so it’s probably going to take me two hours to get home, and i’m carrying three large and extremely heavy bags. so today was/is fun
oh dear
i hope you managed to get home ok!
remind me why your'e scumreading/voting blake again?
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Post Post #3334 (isolation #490) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:51 pm

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does anybody else think bingle/mariar could be a thing?
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Post Post #3336 (isolation #491) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:53 pm

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i mean i guess if the person townreading me the most votes me i would ... maybe try to do something about it?
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Post Post #3339 (isolation #492) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:39 pm

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saaaaaaaaaaaaaame

should i vote mariar?
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Post Post #3344 (isolation #493) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:54 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3332, skitter30 wrote:
In post 3281, MariaR wrote:Like I am waiting for some points against me along the lines of: 'You pushed gobbles as scum' and that is a very valid reason I can think to scumread me.
you called me scum for saying that way back when
i just want to highlight this because way back 100 pages ago when mariar first pushed gobbles i said hte push was awful and she called me scum for pushing her back for her push on him
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Post Post #3347 (isolation #494) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:01 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3345, Menalque wrote:hey skitter if I said (MariaR, Blake, Bingle) what would you say you thought of that?
at least one scum in that group, i would say
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Post Post #3349 (isolation #495) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:02 pm

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ss do u think it's more likely that lilith got bussed or that you're both tvt

pedit i don't think it's 3/3
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Post Post #3353 (isolation #496) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:04 pm

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feels too ~neat~
everyone's reads look very similar to each other (even the people in group), which points to me that there's probably a scum in the townbloc
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Post Post #3358 (isolation #497) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:07 pm

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idk isn't it weird that {me, you, blake, bingle} have fairly similar readslists?
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Post Post #3359 (isolation #498) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:08 pm

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well more which gamestate seems more likely to you, but yeah that's basically what i was going for
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Post Post #3364 (isolation #499) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:10 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3360, Menalque wrote:
In post 3358, skitter30 wrote:idk isn't it weird that {me, you, blake, bingle} have fairly similar readslists?
I... just proposed (Maria, Blake, bingle) as a solve? When I say townbloc I mean (you, me, datisi, A50, S_S)
i'm not sure what you're trying to say here
fire is also a poe scumread btw
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Post Post #3365 (isolation #500) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:10 pm

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In post 3327, skitter30 wrote:
vla for a few days, as i am sick :/

I will try to catch up soonish
@ofrhz
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Post Post #3372 (isolation #501) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:15 pm

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In post 3367, Menalque wrote:I pointed out that when I say townbloc I'm not including (Blake, bingle) and thought that was clear from including them in a solve with Maria right before this?
oh sorry those thoughts were not necessarily connected

basically, i think the gamestate is weird if {townreads - i.e. you and me} and {scumreads - i.e. bingle and blake} have similar readslists
i don't know what exactly it implies (probably that there's scum in the townbloc) but i'm making note of it because something isn't right here
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Post Post #3379 (isolation #502) » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:20 pm

Post by skitter30 »

like take a look at blake's last readslist and then also bingle's, and then compare that to mine and yours
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Post Post #3406 (isolation #503) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:29 am

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i feel like blake would make more of an effort to appear engaged if she were scum tbh
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Post Post #3408 (isolation #504) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:31 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3393, lilith2013 wrote:also skitter, hope you feel better!
ty, me too
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Post Post #3411 (isolation #505) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:35 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3407, lilith2013 wrote:pedit: @skitter what makes you say that?
she cares a lot more about appearances as scum, and to like appear invested and townie
whereas if town she doesn't care as much

i'm like 95% certain i've discussed this phenomenon with her too
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Post Post #3414 (isolation #506) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:38 am

Post by skitter30 »

and in jazz mafia's dead thread too i think
i also feel like i discussed it with you in-game somewhere but i don't know where
i am going to say that this is my main reason to give you townpoints, which doesn't make it a super solid read

i'm kinda maybe thinking about voting lilith
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Post Post #3417 (isolation #507) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:40 am

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i'm realizing that i don't know if i have a good reason to tr you
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Post Post #3418 (isolation #508) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:41 am

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i kinda want to vote mariar tho
i'm feeling very indecisive today
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Post Post #3429 (isolation #509) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:47 am

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In post 3421, Menalque wrote:Like idm if you wanna wait to see what maria produces today but it would have to be quite something for me to want to change at this point
yeah i wanna see what she says today but i'm leaning voting there, yes
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Post Post #3430 (isolation #510) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:47 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3425, Bingle wrote:
In post 3418, skitter30 wrote:i kinda want to vote mariar tho
i'm feeling very indecisive today
Yes. You are. And I think it’s the worst thing for the gamestate.


Pick a couple of people whose flip you think will be informative and flip them.
i know, sorry :/
i'm working on it
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Post Post #3434 (isolation #511) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:15 am

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In post 3433, MariaR wrote:I knew if I opened my mouth and said I doubted the townblock
do u have someone in particular in mind?
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Post Post #3436 (isolation #512) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:18 am

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so you disagree with the townbloc but you don't know what's wrong with it, is that right?
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Post Post #3439 (isolation #513) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:28 am

Post by skitter30 »

blake u think marar is town?
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Post Post #3461 (isolation #514) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:37 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3445, Almost50 wrote:Also, why holster? Well, aside from finding out if there is a SK, scum know we have ONE PR at most. That could be a Tracker, for instance. So they wait and see if they can spot that PR if there were no NKs and turn the game to mountainous and not fear being caught by night action at all.
I dont think they holstered, but i think the scum nk got lost via doc/jk/hider, etc
If lilith is scum there isnt a strongman
And i'm coming around to voting her, i think
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Post Post #3462 (isolation #515) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:43 pm

Post by skitter30 »

I think i still like my bingle vote, but i am warming to the idea of voting lilith
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Post Post #3465 (isolation #516) » Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:57 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 2501, lilith2013 wrote:doctor/jk/hider/commuter.......
This slips that if she's scum, scum dont have a joat ^

And yeah @blake i looked and i think i agree with u

VOTE: lilith
L-1 and all that jazz

Plz no hammer without a claim, final thoughts, etc

Today really was quite odd if lilith/ss are svt
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Post Post #3473 (isolation #517) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:26 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3468, Menalque wrote:Skitt, you never said if you thought I was tunnelling here, I don’t think
i don't particularly think you're tunneled, no
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Post Post #3493 (isolation #518) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:26 am

Post by skitter30 »

UNVOTE: for a minute
ngl i think that vengeful is a bit suspect? odds of there being 2 K prs aren't super high, right?
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Post Post #3500 (isolation #519) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:29 am

Post by skitter30 »

i don't want to commit to vigging her cuz if we dont' hit exactly bd i'm functionally suiciding if scum have one
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Post Post #3509 (isolation #520) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:38 am

Post by skitter30 »

blake you still think lilith is scum?
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Post Post #3512 (isolation #521) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:40 am

Post by skitter30 »

the probability of 'getting two heads' is different than the probability of 'getting two heads knowing that you have at least one'

lilith you're saying you'd venge blake?
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Post Post #3516 (isolation #522) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:44 am

Post by skitter30 »

do you have anything in your iso that would point to you playing as a venge
like is there anything you can point to that would make this more likely to be true, if that makes sense?
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Post Post #3520 (isolation #523) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:49 am

Post by skitter30 »

ok:
- i think that lilith's play is probably still scummy
- i think that another k isn't super likely
- if she's scum the venge is irrelevant
- if she's town and lynch her we probably want to optimize the venge
- if she's town blake's unvote is scummy imo
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Post Post #3521 (isolation #524) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:50 am

Post by skitter30 »

oh and
- i still think lilith/ss being tvs is bizarre in that gamestate and would most likely be explained by a very small scumteam, including someone on the ss wagon
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Post Post #3522 (isolation #525) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:52 am

Post by skitter30 »

i feel like lilith probably is town but that lynching her might be a good idea anyways?
- i can't commit to vigging her due to the potential bus driver
- if she's town we get an extra kill that can't be interfered with
- the ~confusion~ about her slot will be resolved
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Post Post #3523 (isolation #526) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:52 am

Post by skitter30 »

@ofrhz, just to check, can a bus driver affect a vengeshot?
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Post Post #3527 (isolation #527) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:56 am

Post by skitter30 »

is the probability of at least one K

1 - (5/6)^7 ?

pedit i mean i would have been p amneable to venging mariar ... i didn't say at any point i thought you were ncessarily the best venge
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Post Post #3530 (isolation #528) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:02 am

Post by skitter30 »

ah ...
hmmm ....

ok. do we have lilith venge maybe in {mariar, fire, bingle}, then?
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Post Post #3533 (isolation #529) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:06 am

Post by skitter30 »

there's 6 possible letters and we need them to not be K (i.e. there are 5 'allowable' values) seven times for there to be no K's

probably bingle

i'm not sure you're flipping scum though :(
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Post Post #3537 (isolation #530) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:12 am

Post by skitter30 »

i think we'd either get scum or the chance at a vengeshot that can't be interfered with by scum
so i think lynching lilith is probably the best move
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Post Post #3543 (isolation #531) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:16 am

Post by skitter30 »

why mariar over bingle?
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Post Post #3553 (isolation #532) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:34 am

Post by skitter30 »

i mean i guess i see what your'e saying but i don't scumread her as much as you do, overall
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Post Post #3557 (isolation #533) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:41 am

Post by skitter30 »

i don't think that lilith should target blake
i can understand why you'd be more worried about me being sk in the event that lilith is venge but i'm probably just going to ignore this until/unless mass paranoia sets in
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Post Post #3559 (isolation #534) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:43 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3527, skitter30 wrote:is the probability of at least one K

1 - (5/6)^7 ?
oh wait this is wrong since we're not literally rolling letters

1 - (9/10) ^ 7

i think ?
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Post Post #3560 (isolation #535) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:45 am

Post by skitter30 »

In post 3439, skitter30 wrote:blake u think marar is town?
blake how confident in this are you?
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Post Post #3563 (isolation #536) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:46 am

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sorry! you're right, my mistake!
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Post Post #3568 (isolation #537) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:56 am

Post by skitter30 »

{a50}
{mena}
{ss}
{dats, blake}
{pp}
{lilith} - idk/null
{mariar, fire, bingle}

i'd want someone in the last tier vigged, and there's absolutely scum in my townreads, i think
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Post Post #3570 (isolation #538) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:57 am

Post by skitter30 »

lilith is like the middle
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Post Post #3573 (isolation #539) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:59 am

Post by skitter30 »

i kinda suck at probability
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Post Post #3576 (isolation #540) » Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:01 am

Post by skitter30 »

i took multiple probability classes in college and remember very little of it :/
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Post Post #4578 (isolation #541) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:02 pm

Post by skitter30 »

great game everyone! thanks ofrhz for modding
mena don't be too hard on yourself :)
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Post Post #4588 (isolation #542) » Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:41 am

Post by skitter30 »

@ofrhz
Pts?
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