Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over


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Post Post #15 (isolation #0) » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:23 am

Post by Thor665 »

tl:dr - this entire commentary block is all about introducing myself as the IC, blathering about my duties, and offering a basic idea of some of the strategy of the RVS. If this interests you, please read on (especially if this is your first time playing here) if not, feel free to skip.
Spoiler: IC Intro
===========================================================================================

Greetings,

I am Thor665 and I am the Inexperienced Challenged (IC) player of this group. What this means is first and foremost - I am here to play this game with you in a way that will show you what it is like to play on Mafiascum.net. I am here to win and should be treated as such.

My goals and the rules governing my actions are covered in this handy article: Being a good IC
That article is part of our amazing MafiaWiki System. I *highly* recommend this system as a good way to get your feet wet and to find out what a lot of the common abbreviations mean. There is a lot of play strategy discussed in there too. A lot of players consider that advice almost all outdated now. I don't recommend trying to run verbatim with anything there, but a lot of the basic advice is very good to at least be aware of as it can help you avoid blatant pitfalls as you become familiar with the game play here.

Now, as an IC I am here as a resource for you to ask questions of concerning game theory. I WILL NOT lie about game theory answers and will answer them to the best of my ability. I will also offer you the following quick pieces of advice;

1. Don't self vote. (there are really no points during a Newbie setup where this is a good idea, please avoid it however logical you may think it is)
2. This site frowns on lying if you are a vanilla town role. I strongly advise against lying if you have this role as usually it will only hurt town in the end.
3. It's a game - have fun.

We are now starting what is known as the RVS (random voting stage). We are in a low information period because scum already know who they are, and even have a rough idea of what power roles may or may not be in the game. It is now town's job to root them out. Because the start of the game leaves us with no information to start with generally the way to start is to begin voting and questioning other people to see if you can catch them doing something scummy (scummy actions being acts that a scum player is more likely to do then a town player).

In post 9, Nauci wrote:Ah, scum do have day chat apparently.

I don't think I've played against scum with day chat before, so I'm not sure how that changes the meta/strategy. Any thoughts, IC?
Some suggest it changes everything because *scum can plan!*
I suggest it changes very little except town getting paranoid about how much it changes.
I tend to ignore it, myself, doesn't appear to affect my scum spotting accuracy.
In post 13, Nauci wrote:(does it give too much info to scum? Is it easily faked? idk). I'm similarly against tracker claiming as I was against the previous "breaks." I'll let the IC explain this stuff though, because I don't think I can do it justice. And also because ICs are bound by the rules to tell the truth about theory.
The current "break" is not a "break".
It is a strategy that is not inherently bad.
I suggest that optimal Tracker play is to claim Day 2, but many would disagree with me both arguing earlier and later and no singular group is overwhelmingly correct (except me, my answer is the best).

Vote: Nauci


Because I don't feel like allowing him to let personal feelings dictate votes instead of evidence.
Or maybe he's scum.
Win either way.
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Post Post #16 (isolation #1) » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:24 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 14, DirtyDishSoap wrote:If at all possible, I would like to avoid 8 pages discussing why it is and is not a good idea to tracker claim.
Why do you oppose setup theory discussion in a semi-open setup?
Also, what would you rather talk about?
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Post Post #24 (isolation #2) » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:15 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 17, DirtyDishSoap wrote:It would be the 3rd consecutive newb game where there's a large debate about whether or not the tracker claim has any merits behind it. We've both agreed previously we inherently disagree with the stratagem behind it. I don't think delving into it any further would bring about anything. That and it focuses on the mechanics rather than actually scum hunting.

Hi, how are you? :D
Mechanics can be used to gamesolve though - it's a fine conversation.

I'm fine.
I note you still don't appear to be doing anything except a mild complaint about a conversation.
Want to sheep me for yuks?
In post 22, James Brafin wrote:Oh, kk. Still suspect, but it's a valid albi.
Why would you expect scum to post in thread as opposed to, say, PMing the mod?
In post 22, James Brafin wrote:That being said, Thor, I think the answer to your question in #16 is "Who is scum."
If that's true, why isn't he doing it?
In post 22, James Brafin wrote: Also not a fan of post 15, I'll explain in a bit.
Cool, I look forward to the detailed and full analysis requiring the pause to collect your thoughts ;)
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Post Post #35 (isolation #3) » Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:21 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 30, James Brafin wrote:
I feel like this is odd. Daychat does change things a lot. Scum no longer has to associate with one another, and therefore it makes it harder to hunt, esp. by association. It has nothing to do with planning; they can effectively go two completely different directions and screw up town royally.
Can you describe an example of them doing this and why they could only do it with Daychat as opposed to scum play without daychat?
Because I can't think of one - but, like I said, some people disagree with me.
Also, you are aware that, as an IC, I'm actually not allowed to lie about game theory...and this is a game theory question, so by definition either my answer is my honest thoughts or you should report me to the mod.
In post 30, James Brafin wrote:
Mabye this is just me, but this feels like it might be shading AtA a bit. The actual post isn't bad, it's the specific wording that is pining me a bit.
Again - not allowed to lie about game theory.
Also, how would me "shading" this game theory help me win as scum/hurt town exactly?
In post 30, James Brafin wrote:
And this bothers me. We are in RVS; personal feeling is all we are voting on right no. No info, remember? This post feels conf-biased, a bit forced, and I honestly can't see teh town beifit from posting it. By far this is what has me the most concerned.
[/quote]
You don't understand the context of my response, that Nauci didn't react suggests she does.
Why did you decide it was scummy and call me out on it after multiple days as opposed to just asking 'hey, why did you do this?' and then getting my answer and calling *that* scummy ot townish?
You put the cart before the horse, yeah?
In post 31, James Brafin wrote:
It's not that I expect scum to do it as much as I don't expect town to do it. If you believe what you say and don't think the daychat matters, don't YOU think it's odd they mentioned it?
I find it non-alignment telling, but I will admit my knee jerk response is town would be more willing to bring it up because they wouldn't think it would make them look scummy, whereas scum would be less likely to for the reverse reasons.

Why do you think scum would be more likely to do it?
In post 31, James Brafin wrote:
I appreciate that. But it feels to me that you're trying to shade taht I'm trying to build a case without any basis. Is this correct?
[/quote]
I was absolutely trying to shade you - where you expecting me to agree that I look like scum regardless of my alignment, or to agree that you could have a remotely worthwhile case on me?
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Post Post #59 (isolation #4) » Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:14 pm

Post by Thor665 »

Could you narrow that down a bit - I have zero interest in reading an entire game.
In post 37, James Brafin wrote:
Also, you could be giving bad advice while not lying about game theory, because you approached it as an opinion, not actual fact.
What the heck are you even arguing now?
That I'm giving bad advice intentionally and I'd guard myself by claiming it was opinion not fact (even though, as already noted, that would be against IC play policy)
In post 37, James Brafin wrote:
I suppose I did. So then I will ask you, what WAS the point/context of your response?
Not a fan of this handwave of the blatant hole in your method.
I'd like you to discuss your thoughts on why you had a confident read based on me breaking the IC rules and based on a random theory of what I meant with no questioning about it first.

To answer your question - do a search for Nauci and I in a game, my comments are very valid in that context. I'm not allowed to say any more.

In post 37, James Brafin wrote:
Because, imo, as town, why do we care about scum daychat, or multiball factions, or whatever? We don't (I don't, anyways); we only care about finding scum and getting them lynched. So when players estimate on scum numbers as a whole, I don't find it suspect, but any further and I always start asking "Why does town care at all?"
Isn't it your argument that scum Daychat changes the way scum play, and thus town *should* be aware of it to adjust their scumhunting (indeed, you're implying I lied about this to fake town out) how can you both believe it is game changing and also that town shouldn't care whether scum have Daytalk?
In post 37, James Brafin wrote:
No and no. I wasn't, however, expecting a shade on me not actually having a case and trying to look townie. It seems to me that genuine town would be interested in other reads, even if they are slightly delayed. I don't see that shade coming from town.
You're saying town should love and embrace cases on themselves?
That seems nonsensical.
Do you have a long history of supporting cases on yourself when town?
I think it's super reasonable that when any case on me is, by definition, based on one post, that I can believe it's probably weak without having to hear it. After hearing it, even you are admitting you maybe were a touch sloppy, so I appear to be objectively correct on some level, yet now you're calling me scummy for being right?
How does that work?
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Post Post #61 (isolation #5) » Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:09 pm

Post by Thor665 »

It seems fairly straightforward to me, I'll admit.
I even restated his issue in a one sentence breakdown in my last reply.
At what point is it losing you?
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Post Post #71 (isolation #6) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:56 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 63, Nauci wrote:I'm lost on how I am originally involved in the conversation. I reached to X with Y and that meant Z?

I'm super lost within the red text and broken quotations on what either of you guys' opinions are of whatever it was that I did/didn't do? Like I don't know if this is something I need to clear up about my actions o_o
You are incredibly lost, because, for starters - I never made *any* comment about that. And even if his posts are all a mass of confusion, I don't think mine have been. Maybe do a second skim over the day or something?

His issue with you remains your commentary about Day chat.
His last commentary about you was that he null reads you - so I'm not even sure what you are looking to understand, as he's kind of half admitting now his entire push was meaningless.

Does that help you?
I really think you need to go read the game again.
In post 64, Irrelephant11 wrote:Was this vote serious? If so, what is "personal feelings" in reference to?
I don't think I've ever made a non-serious vote, and I didn't start in this game.
As to my reasons - I already explained them to James when he asked me what they were. Did you not understand something, or did you just gloss over his post and my response to it?
In post 66, teacher wrote:
Question
. In Post 11, Nauci mentions ISO. I dont see an ISO button on posts. This would be helpful. Can someone give a more detailed explanation? (Im familiar with the basic software and using profiles to narrow posts, but an in-game ISO would be faster.)
ISO is short for isolation.
If you scroll down to the bottom of the page (under the quick reply box) you will see a little series of drop down menus.
These will allow you to isolate any given player, or to bring up all the posts by two or more players (useful when looking for associations and interactions I find).

Let me know if my answer isn't helpful and I'll talk it through more.
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Post Post #73 (isolation #7) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:05 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 69, Irrelephant11 wrote:It would also explain why the two of them have been arguing over what feels like a lot of nothing - or at least, it's mostly goign over my head, these arguments about how the game works and how an IC works.
Why is it going over your head? I feel I'm being very clear,a nd I'm starting to feel people are using one ugly post by James to claim they can't assess the debate. Allow me to make it a very simple debate for you (James can feel free to weigh in if he thinks I'm misrepping him;

Thor: 1st post.
James
I suspect that post - reasons coming soooon!

Thor: I find needing time to pull together your thoughts to imply your thoughts will be hogwash.
James
It's scummy that you would say that - also here is my case on Thor, I think he lied about theory and also called me scummy!

Thor: (I am just now realizing that him calling out how I shaded his case on me as a reason to present in his case doesn't make a lot of sense timeline wise :neutral: But here's what I said;)There are rules governing how an IC answers theory questions, so by definition your case is 50% wonky. Also, why should I support a case on me?
James
I disregard your point about the rules due to a very twisted concept of what an IC can do, even though I can't describe how it helped you if you're scum - also I will now kind of call you scummy for downplaying scum daytalk while also saying that Nauci is scum because town shouldn't care about Daytalk enough to ask about it

Thor: either Daytalk is potent enough that I should describe it as scary *or* it's not scary and town shouldn't talk about it - you're currently claiming both to call both Nauci and I scum, which makes no logical sense. How do you justify this dichotomy?

And that's where we're at.
Does the argument read to you now, and can you understand our stances and points?
Do you still consider them meaningless, or do you have an opinion about someone being more or less correct? Do you see scum motivation still in either or both of our stances and why?
In post 69, Irrelephant11 wrote:In 31, JB accuses Thor of "shading" him for what was pretty clearly a joke. And in 35, Thor asks "Also, how would me "shading" this game theory help me win as scum/hurt town exactly?" which from what I can tell (if I'm reading these posts right - yikes), JB doesn't respond to?
How can you say this and think;
1. It was a joke (when James doubled down on it)
2. That I would castigate my scumpartner so painfully if he was joking with us, since you seem to believe I'd be coaching him for any misstep?
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Post Post #74 (isolation #8) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:07 am

Post by Thor665 »

Also, you probably should feel like I'm not calling James scum yet - because I haven't called him scum yet.
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Post Post #77 (isolation #9) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:38 am

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In post 75, Irrelephant11 wrote:@Thor, all I'm finding is #35's "You don't understand the context of my response, that Nauci didn't react suggests she does."
Oh, and #59's "To answer your question - do a search for Nauci and I in a game, my comments are very valid in that context. I'm not allowed to say any more."
You have found quite a few answers there.
I will clarify, since this might be tripping you up, you are not allowed to discuss thoughts, alignments, or much else from games that are currently ongoing.
This might explain why I'm being oblique.
Just saying.
In post 75, Irrelephant11 wrote:I guess I just don't understand. Are you referencing Nauci's use of personal feelings in other games as a serious reason to vote her now? Or because of something you quoted in ?
As stated in #59 - the former.
There is nothing I quoted in #15 that indicates feelings are an issue in those quotes.
Does my stance make better sense now?
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Post Post #79 (isolation #10) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:05 am

Post by Thor665 »

You'd expect town to be more confident than scum in expressing scum reads?
Why?
I usually find it to be a habit more player based than alignment based, and, if anything, would tend to presume scum would be the 'slip and look more confident' rather than town.
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Post Post #88 (isolation #11) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:29 pm

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In post 80, Irrelephant11 wrote:In response to 77, yes, your words make more sense to me now, thank you. The only thing that doesn't make sense to me is a "serious" vote on someone for out-of-game reasons.
There is no out of game reasons.
But that's partly because nothing is out of game when it comes to Mafia.
If I've played with someone before, and have an opinion on how they play, I can (and probably should) use that in future games.

Also, if I played a game with Nauci before and it was still ongoing I couldn't really debate the specifics.
In post 80, Irrelephant11 wrote:At the end there, I think you misunderstand me. I'm not saying JB was joking. I'm saying he accuses you of shading him when all you actually said was "Cool, I look forward to the detailed and full analysis requiring the pause to collect your thoughts ;)" which I thought was a joke.
It was a joke, though it is perfectly reasonable for him to suggest it was shade - I clearly made it as a snide cutdown of his future efforts, yeah?
In post 85, James Brafin wrote:
No, other way around; you give off opinions and use the fact that you are the IC and know more about the game to validate them.
How did I do that?
Also, how do you think I *should* have answered that question? Like, now that you know my beliefs, could you re-phrase my response in a non-scummy way for me so I can understand your issue?
In post 85, James Brafin wrote:
Gamechanging =/= we should care. We can't actually glean anything from daychat. We can't glean anything from multiball. I personally think that we shouldn't care about that as town.
But that's just my opinion.
:neutral:
So you think it's so gamechanging that I am scummy for not outlining how major it was.
But we shouldn't talk about it beyond that?
Dude...?
In post 85, James Brafin wrote:
A refutation is one thing. A subtle shade to discredit before I can get the words out of my mouth is another. I don't expect town or scum to support a case like mine, but I do expect town to be at least neutral toward it before they hear it. I don't think you being right that I was sloppy is scummy, I think that it's scummy that you called me out on it before I even did it.
Why should town be neutral about a case on themselves after one post wherein they answered a few theory questions and dropped one vote?
Your reasoning for my post being scummy literally relies on me breaking the rules of the Newbie game. I'm not sure how you keep ignoring that and then using malicious sounding words like 'subtle' when I was just openly sarcastic about the case.
In post 85, James Brafin wrote:
I can't decide whether this is misunderstanding or misrep, but it's bad either case. I'm aware that IC can't lie about theory. Never what I said. I think you are using your status as IC to make your opinions sound like fact and therefore more reasonable. WHICH IS ALLOWED. :)
No.
You said that I presented opinions as facts (which would be lying).
Do you need me to quote you saying that back to you or would you like to clarify your answer here?
In post 85, James Brafin wrote:And I'm going to unvote because really, there is no reason for my vote to be where it is right now.
UNVOTE:
Not comfortable enough to put it somewhere else though.

I'm reading Nauci as town-lean Elephant and Thor as scum-lean, and all else as null atm,
[/quote]
If I'm your only scum lean, why are you unvoting me?

VOTE: James Brafin
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Post Post #89 (isolation #12) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:35 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 86, Nauci wrote:Thing that is jumping out at me rn is teacher's flip flipping
What about the flip flopping seems scummy *besides* the flip flopping?
I don't think changing your mind is inherently scummy, yeah?
In post 86, Nauci wrote:I don't like how Thor kept answering my questions with "I already answered your question just reread what I said"
I don't like being asked questions I've already responded to in thread :lol:
I mean, sure, I'm annoying - but at least admit you are too in that equation, you make me feel unloved when you don't read my posts.
In post 86, Nauci wrote:I just wanted to know what "that Nauci didn't react suggests she does." Was referring to/about - what did I not react to?
Well...if you *read the post I made that comment in* you'll note I'm being asked about my RVS vote.
So, in context, the comment can be read as "that Nauci didn't react [to my RVS vote] suggests she does (and adding in what you clipped out) [understand the point of my RVS]
In post 86, Nauci wrote:It would make it easier on everybody if you could just tell me because I really was lost af
I am taking extensive pains to help multiple players who are claiming inability to follow a game that is text based.
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Post Post #92 (isolation #13) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:08 pm

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In post 90, James Brafin wrote:Nowhere did I say that you were presenting opinion as fact. I even said you were approaching it as an opinion. However, you CAN state an opinion and make it sound plausible by AfA.
So you ARE misrepping.
:neutral:
In post 37, James Brafin wrote:Also, you could be giving bad advice while not lying about game theory, because you approached it as an opinion, not actual fact.
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Post Post #99 (isolation #14) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:59 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 96, Nauci wrote:Like the more you attack that angle the more he can use "I have to follow the rules I can't lie" line that makes him sound town without actually saying any analysis about this game.
What analysis do you think I'm avoiding?
In post 96, Nauci wrote:- It's not like mind changing flip flopping though. It's that every time he says something and someone pressures him for it he changes his mind as a result of the pressure. My first games as scum I caved the same way because I was terrified of any pressure, and I've seen lots of other newbscum do it too. I don't see good reasoning to change his mind, just this awkward "oh I was worried" or "oh I was drunk" stuff.
I agree with you about the pressure level and value change and stuff - my counter thought is this; do you not see newbtown do this/see newb scum do it statistically that much more often?

Because I'd probably fall into a camp of seeing it as a massive newb tell, but don't have a clear feel for it on an alignment scale.
In post 96, Nauci wrote:I feel like it's pretty clear I've read your posts multiple times but I was still confused so I asked questions. It would have saved us all a lot of effort if you didn't answer "reread lol" so many times.
How many times did I do "lol read" without also clarifying the answer?
Because I'm pretty sure the answer is 1 or 0...so, what are you going on about it like this for exactly?
In post 98, TheGoldenParadox wrote:I also suspect Thor for that I'M AN IC AND I DON'T LIE stuff, it kinda looks like he's scum that slipped and is now trying to get by with that.
VOTE: Thor
You got me.
Can you please describe the slip I'm using that answer to cover up so all the rest of town can see how well you got me?
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Post Post #101 (isolation #15) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:30 am

Post by Thor665 »

@Meji - who is your current top scumread and why?

If your answer is 'none at all' then could you please describe your current strongest read and why you have it?

If your answer is 'I have none' could you please describe your plan on how you foresee changing this?'
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Post Post #105 (isolation #16) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:23 am

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In post 104, Irrelephant11 wrote:Great! when you do, can you make sure to comment on Teacher, JB, and Thor? Pretty sure among te three of them there is at least one Mafioso.
Are you claiming higher odds than the random chance of 1 mafia in any random grouping of three, or no?
If yes - what makes you come to that conclusion?
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Post Post #109 (isolation #17) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:37 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 108, Irrelephant11 wrote:@Thor, I mean I think it's clear that I suspect the three of you the most so far? Randomly, any group of 4 I name will have one mafia in it. After playing for a bit, I do feel like I can name a group of three likely to have one mafia in it. I want to know if DDS sees things similarly.
So it's a claim of random chance?
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Post Post #110 (isolation #18) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:38 am

Post by Thor665 »

I also agree that you kind of awkwardly connect me to JB for reasons I still don't grok.
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Post Post #113 (isolation #19) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:02 am

Post by Thor665 »

Agree with you about what you're advancing.

So basically it's just "I suspect three people, two of them as a scum team, so think at least one scum is in there"
Wouldn't the theory scumteam mess with that average?
Like, are JB and I both scummy regardless of if we're partners, or is one (or both) of us only scummy in connection with the other?
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Post Post #115 (isolation #20) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:08 am

Post by Thor665 »

How am I scummy if JB isn't my partner?
I have seen no evidence of that thought coming from you, did I miss it?
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Post Post #117 (isolation #21) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:34 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 116, Nauci wrote:-Thor I didn't say you're trying to avoid anything, just that the attack he's using on you gives you room to just keep holding up the ICS DONT LIE flag
You did say it was clouding you town read of me - what about it looks scummy if I'm not using it to avoid stuff?

In post 116, Nauci wrote:-hella sussing TGP for 98. feels like pocketing me plus misusing my point about ic stuff to FOS Thor with made up grounds
I'm reserving judgement on that until he answers my question.
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Post Post #124 (isolation #22) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:02 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 121, Nauci wrote:
In post 120, Flicker wrote:teacher's also on TGP and I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.
Oh shit thank you I actually forgot he voted there

I mean there are very good reasons to FOS both of them but when TGP's only post was about getting his ass handed to him as scum in the game with me, maybe he set himself up to look like a patsy

I'm conflicted because I want to wagon TGP (or Meji) to discourage lurking, but I don't want to potentially fall for a low hanging fruit distraction from my biggest SR

also wtf people how am i the most active poster while fucking dying

thor you've asked questions but I don't think you expressed an opinion on teacher (in fact I feel like most of your posts are self defense) - what are your thoughts here
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Post Post #125 (isolation #23) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:03 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 121, Nauci wrote:thor you've asked questions but I don't think you expressed an opinion on teacher
You are correct, it's because I don't have one worth expressing.
Null would be my current answer.
I think most of the things he's being pushed on are silly, but I also think we're at a stage of the day where it's perfectly fine to push someone for silly reasons. I think he appears to be trying, but I don't think he's accomplishing much, but then again he is an apparent Newbie, and I also kinda feel like English isn't his first language which both cloud a read on effort. So, Null.
Why do you think I should be expressing a read on him at this stage?
In post 122, Meji Fan wrote:Thor - who do you think my top scum read is? Are you being obtuse? Who I'm voting for is a hint.
Your vote on Nauci was done super early and claimed 'lack of content' as the issue.
Since then the game is no longer super early and also Nauci has posted quite reasonable levels of content.
Even when I asked you to state your top scum read you...kind of don't seem to suspect Nauci anymore, even though you're leaving your vote there.
So I'm not sure why I shouldn't be confused as to your current stance.

Do you still think Nauci is scummiest for posting early and not saying much during Page 1?
No one else has done anything equally or more scummy since then?
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Post Post #129 (isolation #24) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:43 am

Post by Thor665 »

I was kind of waiting to see how far that one would go.

@DDS - now that you're aware of teacher's claim of what he said he was lying about - could you explain to me, before he clarified, what you *thought* he was lying about?
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Post Post #149 (isolation #25) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:51 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 148, teacher wrote:Please dont DDS. I like your style and analysis. Its obv up to you, but I wouldnt leave a game over a style disagreement with one player. (If it is because youre overburdened from the other games, fair enough and good luck in them. Forgot how much of a timesuck these games can be).
She told him 'F you' I think the interaction there is perfectly reasonable and fine for him to depart from. Neither of them was being overly pleasant to the other, and it's a game - you're supposed to be enjoying yourself.

@Elephant - the answer to your question is, because DDS brought it up second.
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Post Post #165 (isolation #26) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:09 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 125, Thor665 wrote:
In post 122, Meji Fan wrote:Thor - who do you think my top scum read is? Are you being obtuse? Who I'm voting for is a hint.
Your vote on Nauci was done super early and claimed 'lack of content' as the issue.
Since then the game is no longer super early and also Nauci has posted quite reasonable levels of content.
Even when I asked you to state your top scum read you...kind of don't seem to suspect Nauci anymore, even though you're leaving your vote there.
So I'm not sure why I shouldn't be confused as to your current stance.

Do you still think Nauci is scummiest for posting early and not saying much during Page 1?
No one else has done anything equally or more scummy since then?
@Meji Fan - would still like this answered.

If you intend not to answer the question tell me - otherwise I'll just keep quoting it.
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Post Post #166 (isolation #27) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:12 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 157, Oxy wrote:Can someone give me a tl;dr for anything game relevant that has occured?
Everything is potentially game relevant - so the only way to answer that is with a wall.
Why'd you read some walls and not others?

@Mod - pretty sure you'd do this anyway, but just so the new players can see this done so they know it's an option in future games.
I'd like to request a deadline extension due to the combo of lurk and replacements we're undergoing.
Since it's me I'd like it to be a moderate extension - as I do think long days can be anti-town and lead to more replacements, but we assuredly deserve something like an additional 48 hours from the last replacement.

Thanks!
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Post Post #202 (isolation #28) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 12:18 am

Post by Thor665 »

I've spoken directly to all the slots expect Flicker.
Flicker would be the least communicated to slot.
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Post Post #234 (isolation #29) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:24 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 228, James Brafin wrote:
In post 224, Oxy wrote:@James Yeah, I have a question. Why is him scum reading and voting you for something, and then explaining that something, scummy?
To both you and NK15: NK made me scum, and then built his case on why I was scum (which is now falling apart btw). That's why he's scummy; he said I was scum, and then had to defend it, not the other way around; he should have made a case, and THEN scumread me and voted me.
How is this different than what you did with me - announcing a read and then presenting a case later?
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Post Post #238 (isolation #30) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:15 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 236, Nauci wrote:Thor, you've gotten a bit quiet too. What are your thoughts on Meji not responding,
or NK v JB
?
I'd lynch Meji.
But I'd also lynch James.
I'm currently voting James.
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Post Post #239 (isolation #31) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:18 am

Post by Thor665 »

@Nauci - also, why are you calling me out for getting quiet when my last post had been only one hour before yours, was game relevant, you only had six more posts than me at that time, I had two posts yesterday, and have posted multiple times every game day except for one?
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Post Post #242 (isolation #32) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:46 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 199, teacher wrote:So, as you can tell, tonight I tried to update my association analysis rather than my iso analysis. Doing that made me realize that some players I thought had been contributing alot really havent provided broader reads on more than one or two players. @Thor has only really discussed 3 people. @Elephant has only really discussed four. @Meji takes the cake with only two.

Multiple players (me, James, nauci, flicker) have shared guts on all players,
even if its a null.
Since you called it out as wanting an answer - I'll give one.
"If I don't express a town or scum read you can *assume* a null read until updated"
There, now I have given "reads" on 100% of the game.
:neutral:
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Post Post #244 (isolation #33) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:08 am

Post by Thor665 »

Explaining a null read is like describing the flavor of something that has no taste.
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Post Post #249 (isolation #34) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:06 am

Post by Thor665 »

I'd actually just like to hear why a 6 hour delay on the L-1?
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Post Post #274 (isolation #35) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:40 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 270, Oxy wrote:@Thor

Plenty of room on this Meji Wagon, and you get your choice of sparkling or mineral water!
I agree with that.
The problem is you're basically going 'hey, Thor, unvote the person you want lynched who has lots of votes, and join us on this person you want lynched with far fewer votes!"
To which the obvious reply is - 'why?'

There are a lot of people voting vanity wagons at the moment, you should try to get those votes moved, if the Meji wagon becomes competitive then it's a good time to court me.
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Post Post #276 (isolation #36) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:59 am

Post by Thor665 »

@Teacher - why make an offer to move to Meji and then abandon it 12 hours or so later even after some people have moved?
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Post Post #282 (isolation #37) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:05 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 278, Flicker wrote:From what I've observed, the site meta here is to call for a role claim with intent to hammer, rather than just setting a time and hammering once that deadline had passed. I know we didn't get an extension, but we still have more than three days, and nobody should hammer without a claim IMO.

Also, even if deadline expires without a hammer, the highest vote-getter is still lynched, right?

@Thor, can you confirm or correct me on both of the above?
Your second point is just straight wrong. Lack of a lynch is assuredly a thing.

I would say you described the basic concept of how hammering should be done per site meta correctly.
In post 280, Oxy wrote:As far as I can tell, you're voting him for unvoting you.
Not sure why - I've never said anything of the sort.
In post 280, Oxy wrote:Is that the gist of your scum read on him, or is there more that you could talk about?
My issue is that he is applying tells unequally and also ducking the game.
Doesn't feel like scumhunting, feels like lynch hunting.
In post 280, Oxy wrote:Or can you discuss my thoughts on James' slot?
I disagree with your town read - would you really like a blow by blow disagreement of it?
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Post Post #285 (isolation #38) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:59 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 284, Oxy wrote:
In post 282, Thor665 wrote:I disagree with your town read - would you really like a blow by blow disagreement of it?
Sure, if you've got the time. =)
I think it's a waste of time, but I do have the time, so...
In post 266, Oxy wrote:If James is town, there is probably 0-1 scum currently voting for him.
This is a meaningless value call.
I would also note that there's a decent chance that it is also just about as statistically true if James is scum.
In post 266, Oxy wrote:Meji stated that they think James is town

but didn't do anything to try to defend him, or push a different read.
For someone who brings up playstyle tells so much, this is arguably a playstyle case.
Have you researched Meji?
Does Meji town normally appear better at pushing a wagon?
In post 258, Oxy wrote:If town is feeling this slow, inevitable march towards a lynch,

And no other wagon is gaining traction,

What are the chances we're on scum?

This game reeks of sit back and watch town beat itself!
Well, for starters, there are a few issues here.

1. Maybe you're the scumbuddy and *this* is the defense.
2. Maybe Meji's defense is the defense, and is just a wimpy/poorly done defense.
3. Maybe the scumbuddy is a lurksack - it's not liek everyone is on the wagon or supporting it.
4. Maybe the scumbuddy is quite content to bus at this stage.

So why is your theory the best theory or even the most likely theory?
There is no evidence I see to suggest that your theory is more likely than any of the four I presented, and at that stage it's as equivalent to saying "James isn't scum because I saw a white rabbit today" yeah, sure, that might be true, but it might not.
Doesn't sell me one way or the other.
In post 256, Oxy wrote:Scum wants to fit in. Scum tells are usually small variations from the mean.

Truly aberrant behavior is far more likely to come from town. (Such as the text formatting)

His meta is stale, but his last scum game had a number of cringe worthy comments.

Things like, "And that let's scum get away scott free!"

I don't see those here. (Yes, he could have gotten better in his time away from the game.)
I think he's done a lot of cringe worthy things this game.
Also, where do you get your evidence that scum want to fit in?
When I play scum I play to copy my town playstyle.
If my playstyle as town is to be different, and then I try to fit in I'd be easy to catch as scum, yeah?
So...?
In post 256, Oxy wrote:Much of what he is being scum read for - his pushes and the reasoning behind them - seem like the natural progression from the playstyle he was using the last time he was active, and is not alignment indicative for him.
I would be interested to see evidence you have of him applying tells unequally as town.
Do you have some/remember some clearly enough to describe them?
Because if not how valid is this meta search to make a value call...?
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Post Post #287 (isolation #39) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:30 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 286, Oxy wrote:It's rather intimidating to see how proficiently you can debate something even when you put little to zero thought into it.

e.g., You nearly had me convinced that there was a similar chance of 0-1 town being on James wagon regardless of his alignment

until I went back and ran the numbers, and realized that if there are 2 scum total, and 1 of them were james, then there would be 100% chance of 0-1 scum being on his wagon.
Which I'm hoping serves to illustrate the emptiness of your advanced concept - which you're not taking up the gauntlet to defend.
In post 286, Oxy wrote:Do you think it is likely that both scum are currently voting for James?
If he's town, then at wagon height and counting the assorted hammer intents - I don't see it as unlikely. I'd probably give it a 1 in 3 chance in that situation.
I'd say it's near to 100% that the above theory would create a group that contains at least one scum to the point you might as well wager money on it.
In post 286, Oxy wrote:To your question of fitting in, I should have been clearer. I meant the variation from their mean. And this text formatting is not a minor variation from James' mean. It's a large one.
I also see 0% chance he decided to do it just because he got a scum role PM - so fail to see the point.
In post 286, Oxy wrote:What cringe worthy comments has he made this game?
Pretty much anything with the word misrep in it counts.
Also, frankly, the entire concept of claiming I was lying/misrepping theory as a scum plan even in the face of repeated evidence that it would be either something I should be immediately reported for, or something you could safely assess wasn't happening.

Do I need to present more to convince you they exist?
In post 286, Oxy wrote:Aggressively pushing numerous people based on some theoretical understanding of what is and what isn't scummy (e.g., Appeal to authority, assumption before narrative, etc.) is the basis of his game regardless of alignment. It's more toned down here than it was the last time he was active, but this is his playstyle. I think most people are scum reading him for that rather than his unequal application of tells.
Whether or not Newbie players are reading him the same way I am for reasons I disagree with is fairly meaningless to me as a reason to either town read him or to move off his wagon.
Am I missing the thrust of your point here?
In post 286, Oxy wrote:But if you point me to what you're referencing in this game, I'll see if I have something exactly analogous from his meta.
I have literally asked him about it here;
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10122662
He's done more than that one (though I think only one other) so if you need a second example you can always read him over.
Also, in going back to find that post I found a post where I was explicitly defending James' flip flopping to Nauci as not scummy - yet for some reason you thought that was my case against him. Can you explain how you reached this conclusion?
In post 286, Oxy wrote:Have you looked through his meta?
No, but I've played with him before.
Can you explain what part of my case you think meta would defeat?
In post 286, Oxy wrote:You're right, it could be a playstyle tell from Meji. No, I have not researched Meji. Meji is a very compromise wagon for me. I don't think Meji looks townie, and there is very little from them, overall. No one seems interested in wagoning my top scum read, and I don't want James to get through as the wagon of inevitability, so I'm willing to put my resources into better sorting Meji.
Why did you go and read all these James games to get a meta read and yet aren't doing the same for Meji?
Multiple people (at the very least myself and teacher - and I'll presume James in a world where he's the other option) have expressed willingness to lynch Meji. Why do you think you have no support?
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Post Post #294 (isolation #40) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:31 am

Post by Thor665 »

a ctrl+f for 'throw' in James' ISO yields this.
I personally don't think he softer anything and I very much don't see how that's a soft even with a squint and a tilt of the head.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10110780
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Post Post #295 (isolation #41) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:33 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 288, Oxy wrote:Okay, thanks Thor. I appreciate you going through an exercise you felt was a waste of time for my benefit.

If you would like any of those questions answered, feel free to repeat them. Otherwise, I'm going to disengage.
I'm fine with the core disengage since it was a thought exercise for you - curious to see if anything comes of it.

I would like you to address why you meta-dove James and no one else though.
In post 291, James Brafin wrote:Yes. I am also townreading Nauci. Irrelaphant & you, and nullreading thor.
Since you null read me, I'd love you to answer my question to you;
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10122662
It would be more helpful to me than you skimming and claiming you're not 'backing down' from a position I'm not even fully sure what it is, nor who is asking you to back down from it.
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Post Post #298 (isolation #42) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:42 am

Post by Thor665 »

His easy answer to that is 'you throw the game when you lynch people off playstyle instead of for reasons they are scum'.
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Post Post #308 (isolation #43) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:55 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 295, Thor665 wrote:
In post 291, James Brafin wrote:Yes. I am also townreading Nauci. Irrelaphant & you, and nullreading thor.
Since you null read me, I'd love you to answer my question to you;
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10122662
It would be more helpful to me than you skimming and claiming you're not 'backing down' from a position I'm not even fully sure what it is, nor who is asking you to back down from it.
@James - third time's the charm?
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Post Post #311 (isolation #44) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:06 pm

Post by Thor665 »

How do you know he built the case only after being asked to?
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Post Post #315 (isolation #45) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:22 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 312, James Brafin wrote:This is the part you all seem to be missing. THERE IS NO GUT READ. He comes in with a full-fledged attack, then builds his case. once he does that, he automatically assumes everything that comes from my mouth is scummy, i.e. "you're scum, so everything you say is scummy." i.e. ORLYScum.
So just to describe this without all caps to see if I understand it.

He attacks you (you claim he has no gut read to suspect you despite no evidence to support this stance).
You ask why is he attacking you.
He presents a case.
You call it scummy because he created the case after the attack (even though there is no reason town wouldn't do this, and indeed many town do - heck, I've done it in this game and you haven't mentioned me doing it yet. Frankly I think Oxy did it also)

Do I have that right?
Because it feels like even if you're onto something you're blowing it vastly out of proportion, yeah?
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Post Post #323 (isolation #46) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:54 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 318, James Brafin wrote:And I'd like to point out that his first post he comes in swinging with an accusation and a vote. There's no "Something's pinging me" or anything. So if I am using that term correctly, there cant have been a "gut read" because he didn't give himself the opportunity for one.
I again note, how is that different from what you did with me?
Literally if you had voted me in your first post instead of announcing intent of attack it would basically have been literally exactly the same, yeah?
You would claim to have a town PM, yeah?
So why couldn't he just be quicker on a vote than you and otherwise be town?
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Post Post #326 (isolation #47) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:27 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 325, teacher wrote:But its Elephant's/Oxy's call.
Why isn't it your call?
You spend an awful lot of time outsourcing decision making processes away from yourself - why?
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Post Post #335 (isolation #48) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 12:32 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 328, teacher wrote:
In post 326, Thor665 wrote:You spend an awful lot of time outsourcing decision making processes away from yourself - why?
I disagree -- I have said who I would like to lynch and made my own positions plain. James is perfectly acceptable to me, and I wrote out my case (in addition to the unvote) above. But I do subscribe to the view that a town voting block lowers the chances of a mislynch and provides strength over the course of multiple days, which is why I am trying to get one around the spot that I feel is a lock-town, and almost everyone in the game has expressed similar feelings about (elephant). I have announced an intention to sheep elephant, which is why he is on that list. If he comes back tomorrow morning and says to vote elsewhere, I will follow. I put Oxy on the list because he declared a possible hammer tonight.

Does this answer your question? If not, I may be missing something, so please try again.
Let me rephrase the question and see if you disagree with that, because I disagree with your disagreement.

You've listed a small assortment of names you're okay with lynching.
But I have no idea which you'd like to lynch most because you keep outsourcing that decision - basically as if you don't care.
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Post Post #336 (isolation #49) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 12:33 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 332, Oxy wrote:Anyone else notice how Flicker is answering the case by James, her scum read, as if she were talking to town?

It's not, "You suck, you're argument is disingenuous and wrong because..."

It's, "Hey, let me help you understand."
Why would a scum want to help a town player they're trying to mislynch understand the game state?
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Post Post #343 (isolation #50) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:30 am

Post by Thor665 »

You've answered my question and confirmed my thoughts about how you're presenting and advancing your reads.
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Post Post #357 (isolation #51) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:21 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 353, Oxy wrote:If this flips scum, lynch, in this order: Flicker, Nauci, NK15, Thor
If this flips town, lynch, in this order: Meji, NK15, Flicker, Nauci
Never lynch elephant, teacher
How do I look questionable if James flips scum but not if he flips town?
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Post Post #436 (isolation #52) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:56 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 368, Flicker wrote:@Thor - care to explain?
Well, for starters he phrased it with an @IC that probably my brain just skipped over. That said, his question also wasn't a meta question it was a 'how do you scumhunt' question. I probably would have said 'lots of ways' and skipped it because that's basically asking me to write a book or to give a pithy short answer.
In post 375, teacher wrote:
In post 372, Nauci wrote:Idk about mass claiming.

Maybe tracker/not tracker claims, and/or hypothetical claims after? I have to think on this.
To be clear, I am NOT seeking mass-claiming, but staggered claiming to time counterclaims.

First (Thur-Friday) Doctor(s) claim. If cc - both identify saves, lynch among. If no cc, move on. If no doc claim at all, gain info that general suspect list likely off.

Second (Sat-Sun), if doctor identified, other pr claim. If cc - Doctor then ID save (lock-town), and lynch among ccs (unless one is saved by dr. Then lynch other). If no cc by end of sunday - 2 towns confirmed. 3 if doctor didnt save other pr. Known!town block grinds down mafia.

Again, only a theory. But I think it works.
:neutral:
In post 384, Not Known 15 wrote:At this point a massclaim, with three stages should be in order.
First stage: Everyone claims VT or Not VT.
Second stage: The Not VT claims claim their roles.
Third stage: The powerroles tell us their targets.
Why a massclaim at this stage?
I mean, clearly from reading up I can tell you were super excited to claim, but why advance that to a massclaim idea?
In post 385, Flicker wrote:@Thor - Would you still argue for a tracker claim today?
Yes.
Though now that a JKer has claimed it's a bit more 'meh'.
In post 387, Oxy wrote:Thor I'm glad we have an IC still around.
@Could you please walk us through your IC opinion on mass claiming vs other strategies for this particular situation? Could you also talk about lynching vs no lynching after a no kill? <3
In post 418, Oxy wrote:@Thor I know a lot changed since I asked you my last question. Could you please talk about what good strategy is here, from an IC perspective? <3 again.
In post 420, Nauci wrote:I think claim strats are super complicated and would like to see Thor weigh in before we continue
In post 430, teacher wrote:By the way, @Thor, Im taking it from the board silence that this requires an IC to sort out. Good luck!
In post 434, Not Known 15 wrote:If I am not mistaken then everyone except Thor(and me, of course) did claim Not JK/Cop/Nea. Which means that we have to wait for Thor anyways...
:neutral:

Okay, seriously guys, two thoughts;

1. In the middle of a game (with some people straight claiming) is *not* the best time to figure out your entire mindset on how claims work. Maybe go read some articles about claiming? At the very least stop proposing plans if you're also going to be asking questions - realize you don't have a plan?
2. You're allowed to read that other people are asking me questions. I'm going to do a *single* post about my general outlook on claiming, and include a few notes on specific aspects of claiming int he situation we are in. If you have questions about that post afterwards feel free to ask them. If you have another giant broad sweeping question about the very need of claiming I'm going to just link you to our lovely Mafia Discussion section, where people sit around and talk theory all day. There's a search function. Just saying ;)

Right, so first off let me post this thought;

EVERYONE STOP CLAIMING ANYTHING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS AND CHILL YOUR JETS!

Thank you.
I'll get my "how 2 claim" post up in a bit.
Then I'll post a game relevant post after that.
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Post Post #437 (isolation #53) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:08 am

Post by Thor665 »

Claiming 101
aka - why am I having to write this in the middle of a game where people are already claiming?

So let's start with 'what is a claim?'
A claim is when you announce your role to the world. There are many reasons to do this. A fair few are bollocks reasons.Let's do a quick glance over 'reasons to claim'

1. You're going to be lynched, you claim to try to stop the lynch.
2. You have game relevant info that seems worth exposing yourself to NK (e.g. you can cause the lynch of a scum, you can prevent the lynch of a confirmed town/make a confirmed town)
3. You're doing the gambitz!1!!
4. You're trying to expose enough setup info to allow town to gain a scumhunting advantage (generally this is part of an organized massclaim if it is remotely happening in a good way)

The above are all good reasons to claim, but you'll note that there tends to be certain addendum attached to each, that's because it is very easy to claim in a stupid way for each of the situations. Just as a quick example - let's look through a bad version of each claim reason;

1. You claim at L-2. No one was expressing much intent to vote you who wasn't already voting you, you probably could have just kept arguing against your lynch.
2. You decide your info is game relevant (I tracked Player X going nowhere last night, and there was no kill, he's the scum!) when it isn't.
3. Your gambit is dumb (I'm going to claim to be a day vig and post
Kill: Player X
lulz, this will get great reactions!)
4. Only half the town agrees to the massclaim, and only half claim, and then the claims peter out. Or you do it in a setup where the mod has built to punish mass claim game break plans.

So, at the end of the day, what is the real hope to a claim? That answer is the same as the answer town should have for literally anything they do - that the action will lead to lynching scum or to clearing town. So as you start to think about claiming you should basically ask yourself how the claim does one of those things. If you can't clearly articulate it then it's probably not the right time to claim.

Another good thing to look at is your downside for delaying your claim.

As an example, say it's Day 1 in a Semi Open setup like 2d3.
Someone gets run up to L-1 and claims Cop.
You, however, are the Cop.
Do you claim now and get the scum lynched?
Well...maybe, maybe not. There are a few possible paths;

1. You claim, scum is lynched. The scum team will then try to kill/block your role and town may or may not have a protective role. You got town 1 scum flip at probably the cost of your life and/or functionality besides being a confirmed town.

2. You do not claim. Someone else is lynched (who may or may not be town) You then get an investigate at night - you may or may not be NKed - if you die then scum is lynched the next day, if you live then you have a clear or a guilty to report and can still counterclaim the fake claimed Cop.

Which option offers more benefit to town? I would argue #2 because it provides more info to town overall (though there is some potential risk of how people do or don't react to your counter claim, but by counterclaiming you do assure a scum lynch within two phases). The ramifications of your claim a phase or two down the line are always something to consider, and if there's no downside to not claiming right away, then maybe don't claim (a good classic example of this is a Vig - a Vig literally should almost never counterclaim as long as he still has bullets and a night phase to work with - because a bullet is a really good counterclaim.)

How to claim when you claim?

There are basically two schools of thought to this.
Each has pros and cons.

1. Tell Everything immediately

In this version you claim your role, you claim all relevant night targets and which night you visited each. You claim any results. You claim any relevant bits of fluff or hidden info in your role PM. You reveal that awkward reference to Kevin Costner was your Bodyguard crumb, ect. ect.

Pros: very helpful for trying to setup break. Very helpful to do a full info dump in case you die before revealing something useful. Very helpful in getting a town that has run you up to L-1 with hammer intent to try to trust that you're telling the truth.

Cons: Gives scum maximum information about what is or is not known about their activities.

2. Tell things in drips and drabs.

Pros: Can work to lure in scum counterclaims before you drop more info. Can work to lull scum into a false sense of security in order to try to get them to reveal more info prior to outing them. Helps in the gambitz!1!!

Cons: Can make you look scummy. Can deny town info that would help them scumhunt. Can distract or annoy town, making them suspect you or an innocent person for non-valid reasons. General potential headaches from other roles claiming to counter your semi-false/incomplete claims.


Generally speaking, by the time claiming is a good thing, you should stick to method #1. If you can't clearly and *specifically* describe afterwards why you opt for a #2 claim, then a #2 claim is basically always the inferior move. Naturally thousands of exceptions exist to this broad statements, but it's a good core rule of thumb. I would also suggest that the more a game includes the following words "Normal, Open, Semi-Open" in its name the less valuable #2 method is. The more "Role Madness, Theme, Closed" appears the safer and more reasonable #2 is.

=================================================

For what is happening in this game right now.

At game day start - a no kill is meaningless to everyone except scum.
Now, if you're a town PR who can protect people/prevent actions then the lack of a kill might have more meaning. That said, scum might have no killed just to screw with you/because they're not really present players and gaffed up submitting a kill. Do I think that happened? Probably not, but it is important to at least keep it in your paranoid town mind as a possible reality.

So, at game day start - the only claim I think would have been a good idea was the aforementioned Tracker claim that I mentioned on Day 1 (and I would argue that a full reveal of night results within at least 1-2 real life days would then also have been a good idea).

The thing is, now we have a JKer claim.
That means we either have NK as scum lying to us, NK as derp town lying to us, or we have NK as JKer and have a Doctor, a Tracker, or no other PR at all.

So, what is our over and under for claim info?
In any world where he is telling the truth, NK is the most powerful town role and has outed himself - this is not beneficial for town.
Scum would be dumb not to kill him - because they can't risk him being alive if we manage to lynch a scum.
Scum also know whether there is a Doctor or a Tracker or no other PR - which means now scum has a lot more information than town does (again, showing it was not a good idea to claim if NK is town)

So, here are my suggestions;

1. We treat NK as confirmed town today (this is not a permanent call, but it is a decent one for now) Scum either have to kill him if he's town, or risk him becoming a better Cop if we manage to kill scum. Also, if we have a Doc then Nk's actions start to work like a Cop for us a bit right now - so, bottom line, his lynch today is stupid and I oppose it.

@NK - you should claim your night action within the next 48 hrs or I'll presume you're scum and lying to us. If you're not going to claim your action I request that you present info on your brilliant plan of 'how this will help town for you not to claim action' and then I will explain how that logic makes no sense, will note that you shouldn't have claimed anyway, and demand your night action or we'll lynch you.

2. Any Doctor should not claim unless you're brought to L-1 with a hammer intent - you should protect NK, *especially* if we get a scum lynch today.

3. Any Tracker should not bother to claim now either, as the JKer claim weakens the value of your claim. However, you *should* claim if you have a track result showing someone who is not NK visiting someone else, or if you tracked NK and he claims to have targeted someone other than who you tracked him to. You would do these claims because they would help us with info and catching scum - if people are confused about how that works feel free to ask. Again, you do claim at L-1 with hammer intent if that happens to you, any info you have is less valuable than you getting lynched ;)

If people disagree with any of these ideas feel free to explain why. I'll then explain them more fully (or be amazed at your insight and change my mind). But I suspect you're not changing my mind.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #54) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:11 am

Post by Thor665 »

Oh, and any PR that can direct counter the JKer (a Cop, a Neo, et al) I actually softly favor not counterclaiming for about 4 real life days - just so NK can get used to his 'town' position and offer his thoughts.
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Post Post #439 (isolation #55) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:14 am

Post by Thor665 »

James Brafin (5)Thor665
, Irrelephant11 ,
Not Known 15
, teacher , Oxy , L-0
teacher (1)Nauci ,
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,
Not Known 15
(1)
James Brafin ,

Not Voting (1)Flicker

Hurm, looking this over, my issues with Nauci and Meji look valid, though maybe I'm overlooking Flicker.

I'm also thinking either teacher is scum or one of my town reads is wrong.
Let's dance with the lawyer.

VOTE: Teacher
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Post Post #444 (isolation #56) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:49 am

Post by Thor665 »

There is no assurance I was the NK target.

@Oxy - why no vote in play yet?
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Post Post #454 (isolation #57) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:52 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 445, Oxy wrote:I thought it best to see what was going to come out claims wise, first.
What other claims do you want exactly?
In post 445, Oxy wrote:I like your fos on meji more than I like your fos on teacher. Why did you decide to vote teacher and not Meji?
Odds - I think there is probably one scum on the wagon and one scum off - I can clear myself and functionally clear NK on the wagon, so my odds are higher there unless I'm wrong about NK.
In post 446, Not Known 15 wrote:Thor, why do you think it is likely, given how the lynch happened, that there is scum on the wagon at the final votecount?
Because in this game, any random group of five (six if you count James, which I do) is highly likely to contain at least one scum.
Why do you think there is less likely to be scum there?
In post 447, Oxy wrote:I'm not sure that Thor is saying that as a certainty.
I am not, I am stating it as a high likelihood.
In post 449, teacher wrote:VOTE: Nauci, Meji, Thor, Flicker.
When did I become a top scumspect for you exactly?
In post 450, teacher wrote:
In post 439, Thor665 wrote:Let's dance with the lawyer.
Case me bro. I know what the case was in the 100s. I dont know it now, though I know enough people share it.
What part of my presented case is confusing to you exactly?
Otherwise all I'm going to do to answer is link to it.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10136736
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Post Post #455 (isolation #58) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:01 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 453, teacher wrote:
In post 437, Thor665 wrote:Scum also know whether there is a Doctor or a Tracker or no other PR - which means now scum has a lot more information than town does (again, showing it was not a good idea to claim if NK is town)
I absolutely agree with this. I wish NK hadnt claimed. I tried to stress that my theory was me reacting to what is an unexpected N1 result with offthecuff attempts at gamesolving. But...... Scum now has information that town can get (by outing other PR/no PR). Isnt it beneficial for town to at least try to bring that to equilibrium?
I agree that your efforts helped convince people to do non beneficial town play by even discussing claiming when there was no actual benefit to it.
In post 453, teacher wrote:Let me explain. AT this point, with a day's reflection I think DR (if A2) should absolutely not out, ever. Wait to see if NK is countered, or if NK is persuasively cased. (I dont like the quick claim; I dont like the pressuring from NK-Oxy on responding, and I dont like the logic behind a Thor N1 jail, BUT I DONT THINK THAT IS A PERSUASIVE CASE). If he is not countered , weigh whether or not saving NK prevents scum kill or wastes a save on a maf and decide for yourself.
This is a lot of words that I think equates to "a JKer, if one exists other than NK, should counter claim."
I indicated I agreed with this, though also recall saying it should not happen for a few game days.
So as far as that goes - yeah, sure, not sure why you're acting like it's a counterpoint?
In post 453, teacher wrote: In other words, I am not positive about this:
In post 437, Thor665 wrote:[DR] should protect NK
Remember, again, Scum know if theres a doctor. They also know if NK is lying (they know if it is Scum!NK, or if Scum!thor was the killer, or if Town!Thor was the target). If they know theres a doctor, they may decide not to target NK. But the doctor's chances of a successful save off of NK are also low. Bottom line - I dont think its as lock of a case to save NK as Thor suggest, but I also dont think it should be a subject of discussion. Doctor should decide for himself, weighing these variables, without providing indication to the board so as not to tell scum.
You don't think it should be a discussion but are taking pains to discuss it.
Okay...?
In post 453, teacher wrote:But why not have Tracker (if B2) out after the waiting period? It negates the extra power of the scumrolecop. (who knows, scum may even already know this identity). It provides a pretty darn town (but not lock, because C2) position to the board and slightly more towns NK's claim as being a consistent setup. And it makes the mafia have to choose a lynch between two power roles, so known!likelytown in D3 as well? These are genuine questions. Im not sure its better. Im providing the reasons it may be. I havent even weighed it myself.
It does not negate the rolecop in any way - the point of the rolecop for scum at this stage is to find the Tracker. If scum already know who the Tracker is then it doesn't matter to town - but if scum don't then scum have to keep hunting for a Tracker.
I will agree it can provide a lock town - what benefit is there in doing that now as opposed to if we run the Tracker up to L-1 and force a claim?
I see no benefit.
I see as a con the loss of wagon info and votes.
What benefit do you see? You're not listing any besides 'scum have to choose which PR to kill' which...isn't a benefit.
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Post Post #465 (isolation #59) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:46 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 456, teacher wrote:You're not, at all. You went from 4 to 3 because NK removed himself. You're PoE potential scum. I cannot read you remotely. My case is (1)agreement that there's scum on the wagon, (2) believing elephant and Oxy are less likely, (3) thinking NK is still 50/50 but unlynchable, (4) knowing Im town, and (6) my gut meta on the you-james interactions, and (5) the no-night kill (null). I would much rather lynch in Nauci, Meji, but would be willing to hammer you if it is a consensus lynch (which I highly doubt it ever will be). BTW, in case youre implying its OMGUS, I said this in twilight before you turned to me. .
I'm left wondering if you believe all of this why you're *not* voting me?
How likely do you see two scum off the wagon being?
In post 456, teacher wrote:Do I at least get points for "Case me bro" -- made me want a taser.
That's like posting up Star Wars kid and asking for points. Still cute - not timeless.
In post 457, Oxy wrote:Are you looking for a quick lynch? My reads are as clear in my posts as they would be in vote form. Why do you want me, more than anyone else, to vote right now?
I like to see people who extrovert clear reads to back them up with clear actions.
I'm always curious when words and actions don't appear to align.
In post 462, Oxy wrote:@game: Lamist is more town-indicative than scum-indicative for new players. The claiming discussion may or may not have been anti-town, but it's unrealistic to argue that it comes from scum more often than from town.
Who is arguing this?
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Post Post #470 (isolation #60) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:13 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 467, Oxy wrote:And my second point is responding to the following quote. And yes, I know you haven't called it scum-indicative. I'm saying I don't think it's scum indicative, and I'm doing so for the benefit of anyone inclined to think it is.
I see my quote, I don't see me calling him scummy for that, I do see me calling him anti-town. I also see me calling him scummy for other reasons.
Feels very angular as a defense.
In post 467, Oxy wrote:Actually, even then the correct play would be to save someone outside the JK claim some percentage of the time. This would be a small percentage, however.
Nah, 100% jailkeeper at that stage, because once scum make a non-JKer kill the JKer is a cop result.
Then, after Doc death, JKer openly declares his target, and until JKer death you get another cop result every night.
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Post Post #477 (isolation #61) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:43 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 473, Oxy wrote:1) Yeah, I know you didn't explicitly call it scummy. I even mentioned that in the quote?

2)This is a waste of time, but no. If doc is known to save JK 100% of time, then scum hits outside of JK 100% of time, and doc save does nothing 100% of the time.. Thus, doc should save outside of JK some amount of the time in order to induce scum to attempt to NK some amount of the time, allowing doc save to actually do something some amount of the time. Obviously, this percentage needs to be low so the benefits of correct saves aren't outdone by the times the JK is successfully night killed.
1. You did?

2. What's more valuable, the percentage chance of a Doc protect working on the percentage time a Doc shouldn't protect a JKer - or a 100% guranteed investigation result? Because I have no idea why you would ever argue the one over the other - because if you play Doc like that, if I was scum I'd just keep shooting the JK every night - odds are that's massively beneficial to me.
In post 474, teacher wrote:@Thor: I think 1 on wagon likely. If I havent made it clear, I still sus NK more than you even with claim. I just cant vote him or include him in a proffered list. And with the biggest suspect gone, Oxy and Elephant still reduce the amount of the minority left for you. My biggest issue with you is that I feel like you are a good reader but arent explaining outside of lynch desires. Towncasing people helps town too.
You don't need to towncase people unless people are trying to lynch your town reads.
I still don't get why you suspect NK more than me for some reason - can you walk me through the idea of the JK claim as fake?
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Post Post #479 (isolation #62) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:49 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 462, Oxy wrote:@game: Lamist is more town-indicative than scum-indicative for new players. The claiming discussion may or may not have been anti-town, but it's unrealistic to argue that it comes from scum more often than from town.
@Oky - can you show me where you said it?

2. What about my discussion of JKer and Doc combo is showing that I'm not comprehending something?
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Post Post #484 (isolation #63) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:03 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 481, teacher wrote:Assume NK + Oxy team, with NK submitting actions. He knows theres a Protective PR so can early claim and call the cc suspect for delay. He and oxy push massclaim in PR hunt. Achieve scum goals despite my warning. Undercut by NK immediately realizing JK hole in my first theory. Breadcrumbing confirmed later claim supports town.
This almost sounds like an argument against NK being fakeclaiming.
I'm asking why you're suspecting him so much despite the claim? It seems unlikely he's scum to me - can you walk me through why you disagree?
In post 481, teacher wrote:PEDIT: Oxy is discussing advanced Bayesian theory and is right. But again, relevance?
I will admit I never studied that in class - but he's wrong on a game theory level, and I did study that. The only way he's right is presuming suboptimal scum play - and why would you make a plan based on that considering scum could assuredly play correctly?
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Post Post #485 (isolation #64) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:04 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 483, Oxy wrote:
In post 479, Thor665 wrote:2. What about my discussion of JKer and Doc combo is showing that I'm not comprehending something?
I'm done arguing it, but you are objectively wrong here, and that is evidence of you not comprehending my post.
No I'm not.
You brought it up after I had to seek clarification of your original post - I noted (agreed if you'd like) that since I hadn't stated it a general announcement to the game is super angular.
Your original post didn't have good context to your claimed intent - am I wrong?
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Post Post #525 (isolation #65) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 12:50 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 487, Oxy wrote:Okay, you want to discuss it, let's discuss it.

It actually doesn't assume sub optimal play. It assumes that scum play and pr play is influenced by the expectation of what their opponent is going to do.

Bayesian analysis in this case, like in poker, is akin to going down the wifom rabbit hole (If he knows that I know that he is likely to save the JK, then maybe I should blah, blah, blah) all the way to it's eventual conclusion. That conclusion is that optimal play for both sides is to take one action some percentage of the time, and another option the rest of the time.
Except it's not - you're approaching it from a theory position where the goal of Doc is to accrue blocked kills, as opposed to his actual goal - to protect and confirm town.
In post 505, Nauci wrote:Quick comment is that I find it super weird how there has been very little talk about me. Every moment I was too ill to properly post I was sure that I'd come back to a thread full of people FOSing me because I usually FOS lurkers super hard. Maybe I missed it, but I'm pretty shocked to find that (outside of meji's inexplicable super tunneling) only teacher has cased me and irrelephant questioned me. I'm not sure what this means alignment wise yet, though.
I fail to follow - your argument is that you're town who is easy to mislynch so it's strange that scum aren't trying to mislynch you.
That's functionally an argument that you're scum - explain?
In post 514, Oxy wrote:Thor, maybe you disagree, but with two claims on the board, i think it's mass claim time.
I would call it "a period of time where people are allowed to counterclaim".
I don't see much point in having people go around claiming VT - do you?

I'm willing to believe Teacher's claim.
His math case is shockingly silly though.

VOTE: Oxy

This or elephant at this stage presuming teacher is speaking true.
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Post Post #527 (isolation #66) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:51 am

Post by Thor665 »

I'll agree that what I said is true and that you haven't laid out a game case?
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Post Post #528 (isolation #67) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:52 am

Post by Thor665 »

I'm also thinking the math is wrong, but even if it's not it's silly.
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Post Post #530 (isolation #68) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:52 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 529, teacher wrote:But you just added to the game case. Explain how the current state of play points to Oxy/Elephant rather than Meji/Nauci? Seems like trying to redirect from a partner.
Because I still stand by my earlier analysis that at least one scum was on the wagon.

Also, maybe Oxy is my partner and I'm trying to redirect suspicion off him by voting him at a point I fear I've been caught by your amazing math?
I don't even get the logic of that jab.
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Post Post #533 (isolation #69) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:50 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 531, Irrelephant11 wrote:I know I said I'd start today assuming a town Teacher, but mislynching the IC would probably be worth a fake claim if Teacher's scum...

@Thor, what do you think of this possibility?
[/quote]
Meh, maybe?
Seems like really dumb play though.
I think he's probably town.

Frankly, if I'm lynched today and you guys lynch him tomorrow after I flip town I will be in the dead thread making horrible posts about your game analysis.
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Post Post #542 (isolation #70) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:18 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 534, Irrelephant11 wrote:Can you tell me why, from your perspective, your top scumread telling the truth is more likely than one of your townreads being scum?
What was his scum advantage to claim at that stage?
If this was Day 3 I'd agree with you, but Day 2 is a lot riskier for him if he's scum.
I also don't see my play being a massive danger to him since he already had a big wagon going on Meji (that he was driving) so unless the argument is he's Meji's partner and really didn't expect his bus to work really well and had to hard abort via a fakeclaim - I don't see a clear scum logic for his play.
With lack of scum logic - I presume town claim, thus guardedly confirmed town.

What do you see as the scum logic I should follow for him?
In post 537, Oxy wrote:lol, you basically yelled at me for trying to estimate the number of scum on a wagon, but now your guess is analysis. Gtfo, mate. You're flailing scum at this point.
I never yelled at you, and I also never did anything hypocritical (or flaily).
Please describe where/how I did? Maybe with quotes to back up your claim and to prove I lied when I said I didn't?
In post 538, Oxy wrote:
In post 533, Thor665 wrote:Frankly, if I'm lynched today and you guys lynch him tomorrow after I flip town I will be in the dead thread making horrible posts about your game analysis.
AtE
Yes, it is...but it's AtE to protect teacher.
In post 539, Oxy wrote:
In post 530, Thor665 wrote:Also, maybe Oxy is my partner and I'm trying to redirect suspicion off him by voting him at a point I fear I've been caught by your amazing math?
I don't even get the logic of that jab.
how does this help solve the game from your position or anyone elses, if you are town? It doesn't.
It points out the silly position teacher is taking in his logic behind calling me scum.
I f I can show his position is silly, i can defuse the wagon on me, and also potentially get him to recognize that I'm town, thus increasing our chances for a scum lynch. (I'm still waiting for him to defend his math methods so I can ask him to calculate the odds of two town PRs both targeting the same slot vs. not, and then ask if that proves one of them is lying ;) )

How do you see it helping me if I'm scum?
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Post Post #543 (isolation #71) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:19 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 541, teacher wrote:No. Jail means jail - no other action. I couldnt track. Doc couldnt save. Rolecop couldnt cop. Except roleblock resolves first (we dont have one here).
Actually there are two types of jailers.
The jailer in this setup does not prevent actions from targeting jailed targets other than kills.
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Post Post #545 (isolation #72) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:23 am

Post by Thor665 »

It's annoying, because Jailer *used* to mean total block of all actions, then they started shifting it around, there was that gawd awful 'Alien' role for a while.
Nowadays it's just kind of like two Jailers - you have to check to see how they impact actions.
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Post Post #547 (isolation #73) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:46 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 546, Oxy wrote:@Thor I don't want to even try to evaluate your individual plays because if you are town, you should be reevaluating how many scum were on James' wagon.
Why should I reevaluate - I worked with that as a concept when I initially assessed the wagon.
In post 546, Oxy wrote:If you want to ask about a scum motivation - what is my scum motivation to keep undercutting teacher's math? Why would I not sit back and see if teacher could get an early mislynch on you based on faulty logic?
I see we're shooting sideways in this discussion. Are you planning to answer my questions?
To answer your question first, because I'm swell like that - you did "undercut" his mth, but only insomuch as arguing it was a 3:1 scum:town rather than a 6:1.
I, personally, wouldn't call that undercutting - in fact it's basically agreeing. If I thought you had undercut him I'd probably need to adjust my views.
Can you describe how it undercut his position - and then I'll be able to understand how to adjust my views?
In post 546, Oxy wrote:This whole game you have been at a level 1 analysis, but you're one of the most experienced players on this site.

You're scum.
BoP fallacy ;)
This is kind of odd though, because here's your argument;

Thor is so good - he should be towning better - therefore he is scum. Yeah?
The problem is;

1. If I'm *so* good at being town - who are ou to assess my town game? Maybe my game is great and you just can't tell?
2. If I'm so good as town - why do I become terrible when scum? Wouldn't my scum game also be good?

Neither of those makes sense.
Can you clarify your case or tell me where I'm wrong?
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Post Post #548 (isolation #74) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:47 am

Post by Thor665 »

I guess you did say at one point "random things happen"
Is that the undercut?
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Post Post #550 (isolation #75) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 6:13 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 549, Oxy wrote:he started out saying that his math made it like 6 times more likely that you are scum.

I came at it from like 3 different directions, finally determining that there was a 14% chance of NK picking the scum doing the night kill, and 11% chance of NK choosing the night kill target.

That works out to roughly 20% more likely that he picks scum. I took his analysis from 600% to 20%, a reduction of over 96%.
Yes...and so you're still agreeing that the silly math suggests I'm more likely scum, so...?
In post 549, Oxy wrote:And to your BoP - I'm not saying you're "so good"

But I do think it's fair to ask you to have better than level 1 reads

And I'm not saying you're "so bad" as scum - I don't know your statistics, but I imagine level 1 analysis is pretty good in newbie games.
So what are you saying?
because now it sounds like you're saying this isn't a reason to scumread me (which i agree with) but before it felt like you were saying the opposite. Did you change your mind? Am I reading you wrong in one of your replies?

I'll take continued avoidance of my earlier questions as intentional ducking due to inability to answer them.
That makes my vote on you feel more just.
Let me know if you want to adjust that take.
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Post Post #557 (isolation #76) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:26 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 551, Oxy wrote:I'm choosing not to answer questions for two reasons:

1) You are clearly a skilled debater in this context, and I imagine this sort of back and forth is why you're considered difficult to lynch. It muddles up the core issues for everyone reading.
2) You're a scum read, so I'm not actually trying to convince you that you are scum. None of this is actually for you, and your vote on me is irrelevant because I can never convince you to self vote.
1. What core issues am I muddying exactly - I'm being very direct in facing your core issues. If they are muddy after a simple question (and they are) then they are muddy to begin with, yeah?
Why don't you state up a nice - clean - simple - direct case? I'd love to see that, and suggest you haven't yet.

2. I am debating you to crush your case and to continue scumhunting you in case I'm wrong. Theoretically you could do the same to me - I agree you have come to a decision and are now tring to do everything to dig in your heels ant not analyze, but I would not agree that is good play. Why do you think it is? ;)
In post 551, Oxy wrote:And yes, you read my second argument wrong. You attacked BoP by taking it to the extremes -"If I'm sooo good at town, why am I sooo bad at scum."
That's a straw man argument coming from you. I'm saying neither that you are "so good" as town, or "so bad" as scum. I'm saying
I can expect you to be better than this as town
, and that it wouldn't be unreasonable for you to use lazy reasoning in a newbie game because level 1 analysis could be an effective way to coast through a game as scum, especially since you are a skilled debater.
It's funny, because you say I'm misrepping, yet you then go back to my initial call.
You are arguing that I'm scum because I'm better.
If I'm better - why am I not better scum?
In post 551, Oxy wrote:From your pov, scum!oxy has no reason to engage with the math at all, and every reason to not undercut it. Frankly, I would expect this to be obvious to someone with far less experience.
Scum you has no reason to engage with math and help town still decide I'm scum, albeit slightly less assured scum?
Why would scum you *not* do that?
What are you sacrificing to do that?
Because it looks like you're sacrificing nothing - and if you're sacrificing nothing why should I town read it?
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Post Post #560 (isolation #77) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:51 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 552, Irrelephant11 wrote:Also last game day his second favorite lynch seemed to be Meji and today he dropped that. I'm curious why, Thor, since your analysis of votes was one scum on the wagon and one scum off? Why focus so heavy on the three not-NK15 players on the wagon instead of the three players off the wagon?
Because game statistics suggest a high prevalence for scum on the wagon to be 1 or more.
It is more likely that 2 scum are on the wagon then both scum are off.
Therefore it is more likely that scum are on the wagon in some array, and if I have slots I can rule out...
Make sense?
In post 552, Irrelephant11 wrote:I mean, some possibilities include saving Meji as tomorrow's easy mislynch, saving Meji his scum partner that he wasn't sure I'd vote (but had to follow me because he said he would) (note: this is the one you listed, so you
can
see scum logic there), trying this move that he wanted to save till D3 on D2 so it doesn't look suspicious on D3...
Oh, or maybe he just wanted to claim a power role to avoid the lynch forever?
Most of those are really bad plays and thin grasps at straws - you see that, right? Or would you like me to explain how unlikely they are specifically?
In post 552, Irrelephant11 wrote:Overall, I am mostly confused on why you're voting Oxy when Teacher cannot prove he is telling the truth, has over-exaggerated the numbers to push a town lynch (from your POV), up until this claim (that came from your scumeread) you were townreading Oxy, and there's at least one player
off
the JB wagon who you've said you find very suspicious.

idk who I find scummy out of Teacher/Thor, if either, but Thor's trust of Teacher is odd.
As I already said (and we're even discussing currently) the odds of that being a fake claim are...meh, kinda slim.
He was in no danger.
He was reversing his push.

Literally the only issue I have with teacher currently is terrible logic (which he hasn't been around to pursue) and I'll be curious to understand why he had all this info on me during the period where he knew I was jailed up until the point he voted me (but he hasn't been around to engage)

In the mean time presuming him as scum and pressing Oxy seems brilliant to me.
Do you see any reason to hard town read Oxy?
Do you think Oxy's play with me has looked like town play?
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Post Post #561 (isolation #78) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:52 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 558, Nauci wrote:It's weird for people to not have pressed me for lurking from a scumhunting perspective. Obviously no one knows for sure if I'm town, so it's weird that more people didn't pressure me about being away. Analyizing whether or not people are FOSing me is important data that can be done w/o saying I'm casing myself, because my alignment and the perception of my alignment are separate.
Still looks like an argument that you're scum to me.
In post 559, Oxy wrote:@thorr the simple act of a continued back and forth wall fest mucks up the game, IMO. I don't think people like reading them, and I think they tune out. Ya, we get it, you are good with the english language. I'm not engaging with it any more. I think you're scum.
I agree you're not trying to assess me and are ducking things?
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Post Post #564 (isolation #79) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:01 am

Post by Thor665 »

@NK - Oh, scum can make the fake claim with 100% safety.
But now ask yourself why they'd do it on Day 2?
They would have to be living in utter terror of me to try to kill me at night *and* try a fakeclaim gambit to get me lynched.
They had the Meji lynch, so, again, unless that's a scumbuddy, then teacher is less likely scum.
I don't see teacher/Meji as overly likely - do you?
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Post Post #565 (isolation #80) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:04 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 563, Irrelephant11 wrote:Yes. Do you currently think there are two scum on the wagon?
I lean no.
But I'd wager that as more likely than two scum off.
In post 563, Irrelephant11 wrote:Why isn't it likely that Teacher made a bad play? He himself admits he's played poorly today.
If he's scum he's been making great and very clever plays.
He's either clever and scum or derpy and town. I'm not buying derpy and scum - do you see a reason I should?
In post 563, Irrelephant11 wrote:To the last sentence: yes
To the second to last: unsure
To the third to last: Does this mean you
do
think Teacher is scum, and you're just pressing Oxy in the meantime?
1. Why?
2. (just included to make numbering clear)
3. It means I do not consider teacher confirmed town - something you seem to think I'm saying, but I never have, and I'm tryingto clarify that. What I've said about him is I don't see much value in lynching him today.
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Post Post #601 (isolation #81) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:36 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 566, Irrelephant11 wrote:If you lean no, why ignore your biggest remaining D1 scumread to focus on a player you didn't seem to see as scummy until Teacher claimed?
Put another way, your vote analysis seems to inform your reads. Why do your reads not seem to inform your vote analysis?
I would argue that they do - how are you thinking they do not?
If I don't think both scum are assured on the wagon, but I do think it's more likely that one or both was on rather than off - why should I vote off the wagon exactly considering the claims?

You're saying this like it makes sense - it doesn't

@NK - sheeping a case from Teacher
When Teacher straight up said that his case wasn't alignment relevant
is...bad.
Why do you think it's alignment relevant when he doesn't?
Hint: his case is a hot mess.
His points only make sense if I'm scum with multiple people *and* are just randomly doing things 'because'. There's no actual plan he's describing.
Can you?

If not, vote Oxy.

@Teacher - to have fun with your bad math, here's a few other statistics.
I am 50/50 town or scum, because I was jauled and there was no kill. True statistic.
I am 22% likely to be scum at game start.
I am 25% likely to be scum now.
WHat are the odds that a Tracker tracked the persona JK targeted? Does the low number mean you're more likely lying to us? You're 50/50 scum after your claim statistically.
Wow, you share all of my statistics, don't you?
You know what all those numbers mean, besides being true? That doing random statistics is dumb.
I was more likely to be a NK target because I'm the IC. Did you account for that in your statistics?
I was also more likely to be a PR target - with that in mind, if I'm scum, why would I submit a NK?
Did you work either of those numbers into your silly statistic case?

Unvote me, sheep me on Oxy, stop playing badly.
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Post Post #603 (isolation #82) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:50 pm

Post by Thor665 »

The case on me is an affront to statistics.
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Post Post #605 (isolation #83) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:53 pm

Post by Thor665 »

Funny how you can interact with me to try to belittle me, but run and hide from serious conversation.
If you flip scum what are the random statistics that I'm town then?
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Post Post #614 (isolation #84) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:24 pm

Post by Thor665 »

Oxy says he thinks I'm scum - go back and read a few of my questions to him that he hasn't answered.
Then note that, for some reason, you're wagoning me.

Meh.
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Post Post #618 (isolation #85) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:34 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 615, teacher wrote:VOTE: Thor. Fair enough. Thor, will do after the flip if necessary.
So, your case is paper thin.
You're ducking discussing the bad statistics it's based on.

Okay, let's do this exercise to help you if you're town.
Which of the votes on me looks most disgusting to you?
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Post Post #620 (isolation #86) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:25 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 619, teacher wrote:Well since two are from locktown, the question is whether youre trying to cast shade at Oxy/Nauci. Im guessing Oxy.
For starters - one locktown.
For second, considering I'm voting him...yeah, kinda am.
Not that the Nauci vote is particularly impressive.
To be frank, the NK vote is also pure garbage, it's just well intentioned garbage.
In post 619, teacher wrote:Yes he hammered the wagon. But he also pointed out the lack of a secondary wagon on James and tried to join mine on Meji. I also agree with his responses to you.
What about his responses to me do you agree with?
He has openly said he's kind of *not* responding to me, so...?
In post 619, teacher wrote:Like I said, if youre town, I think the board's reads are way off.
Agreed - why do you think that is?
Is the case on me strong enough that this shouldn't be happening? (hint: it isn't)
In post 619, teacher wrote:But I also wonder if there is a reason the two vanity wagons from yesterday are lurking again.
Do you wonder?
You're running me up on a joke and not even addressing my raised issues. If you're town you're being *very* tunneled and conf. biased and not actually paying attention to the rest of the game.
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Post Post #624 (isolation #87) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:20 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 623, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 601, Thor665 wrote:
In post 566, Irrelephant11 wrote:If you lean no, why ignore your biggest remaining D1 scumread to focus on a player you didn't seem to see as scummy until Teacher claimed?
Put another way, your vote analysis seems to inform your reads. Why do your reads not seem to inform your vote analysis?
I would argue that they do - how are you thinking they do not?
If I don't think both scum are assured on the wagon, but I do think it's more likely that one or both was on rather than off - why should I vote off the wagon exactly considering the claims?
You should vote off the wagon because that's where the scummy players are (including according to pre-Teacher-claim Thor)? Which was always my point that has always made sense, thank you very much.
That is not something I've agreed with - it's why the point isn't making sense.
You're arguing that I should do something based on your opinions (which is fine) but you appear to be grossly misunderstanding what I'm stating as my reasons, and then suggesting my reasons don't make sense (which is not fine).

Quote me saying most of the scum are off the wagon or that it's more likely scum are off the wagon and you'd have something.

But I've been saying pretty much the opposite of that all day - does my stance make sense now?
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Post Post #625 (isolation #88) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:22 am

Post by Thor665 »

I'm almost tempted to post a rebuttal to the teacher case on me just because multiple people are claiming it makes sense.
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Post Post #629 (isolation #89) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:49 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 626, Irrelephant11 wrote:No,
Iknow
you've been saying scum are more likely to be on the wagon than off. The problem I have with that is it doesn't line up with your general scum reads. At the point at which your on-wagon scumreads claimed power roles, I'd expect you to adjust your vote analysis. Instead, you've started scum reading previous town reads. A new question from mfor you - why does your vote analysis matter more to you than who you said is playing scummy D1/at day start?
I literally said in the post where I laid out my thoughts, that if I was wrong about Teacher (and the claim takes me down that path) that I would need to reassess my town reads.
Why do you not understand that, even then, I was making a clear statement of how strongly I believed scum was on the wagon?
How does that suggest any change in how I'm approaching the game?

I can agree you don't need to like my reads.
But I don't get how you're being confused about my stated priorities and thought process.
Does this clear it up?
In post 626, Irrelephant11 wrote:Also, come to think of it, why are you so sure about where scum voted? At first,
I assumed it had to do with some mix of randomness statistics and the perceived alignments of the particular players who did/didn't vote for JB
. But now you're showing that you're so confident in your voting logic that it makes you scum read previous town reads when process of elimination tells you to. What gives you this confidence, even as circumstances surrounding players' aligments change?
I sort of feel your initial answer (bolded) qualifies as an answer to your own question. It would pretty much be how I answer it now - how do you *not* find that a valid answer and I'll clarify further.
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Post Post #630 (isolation #90) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:52 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 628, teacher wrote:
In post 586, teacher wrote:Thor is online and active in mafiascum games both immediately before and immediately after daybreak here, but does not talk in Rugby. I find an online and silent IC scummy. I think Town!IC reminds the board of the wisdom of a tracker claim and recommends against any other PR claim. I think Scum!IC is surprised to learn that his actions were blocked and stays silent. Note that Thor previously acknowledges that his silences can be intentional 129.
Thor, please consider this a question. Since you were online and playing at daybreak, why didnt you talk here?
Two reasons.

1. I play in more than one game at a time and cannot spend time I spend in one place somewhere else.
2. I didn't have strong enough thoughts on scum yet to want to color Newbie sheep too strongly to my thoughts, and wanted to see them form some thoughts first for my analysis.

Why do you think scum me wouldn't post besides apparently suspecting you would hard push for claims?
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Post Post #634 (isolation #91) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:10 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 632, teacher wrote:You think that at least one scum is on the wagon.
Yes.
In post 632, teacher wrote: Because NK is locked, that scum is in (Me, Oxy, Elephant) from your PoV.
Yes.
In post 632, teacher wrote: I dont get why you move to Oxy rather than Elephant OR off-wagon, when
I town Elephant far more than Oxy.
Off wagon seems the opposite of everything I've been saying.
In post 632, teacher wrote:Oxy tried to build a counterwagon on Meji, while Elephant didnt
This is an associative tell, and thus really weak until we get at least one scum flip.
I'll agree that if Meji or Elephant flips scum this becomes a potentially telling issue.
Why should it be an issue now?
In post 632, teacher wrote:Im still suspect.
You are.
In post 632, teacher wrote:In other words, if I were playing from your perspective my scum pool would be:
  • Onwagon: Elephant (strongest), Oxy (second-best), me (still possible) -- CHOOSING BETWEEN THREE;
  • Offwagon: Meji (strongest), Nauci, (Flicker omitted for pushing off wagon).
I really dont get why you pick Oxy out of this pool, rather than Meji.
Well...as I've stated multiple times - I think scum is on the wagon, so the off wagon choices are already pretty much off the board for me.
I massively disagree with the associative case making Elephant more scummy than Oxy, but if that's your speed rock on - just don't act like it's weird I disagree unless you can explain why Meji is lock town (and since you're voting me I'll presume you can't, therefore what are you on about here?)
In post 632, teacher wrote:By your own logic that I am still pretty suspect, Meji at this point seems like the much stronger choice, and the only reason I dont see you pushing it is the team.
I agree as long as you ignore some of my stances and invent a read for me that my vote placement looks questionable.
Why does it look questionable not doing these things?
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Post Post #636 (isolation #92) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:16 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 633, Irrelephant11 wrote:Wow if you're being obstinate scum then I am really getting too caught up. If you're town it's really frustrating how much I have to try to communicate this single idea to you.
I'm not trying to be difficult - I feel the communication breakdown is happening on your end, frankly. But I'm trying to work through it.
In post 633, Irrelephant11 wrote:A B C D E voted out town
F G H voted other players.
You're A, and think B, C, and F are scummy. Therefore, you think and say, more scum were on the wagon than off.
Absolutely.
In post 633, Irrelephant11 wrote:Then, you become convinced B and C are town PRs. You
ignore
F, and start trying to decide which of D and/or E are scum.
This ignores that in the above I think scum are massively likely on the wagon, and also supposes without real evidence, that I would consider soft scum reads equal to that read <--- this is the ongoing breakdown in my opinion.
In post 633, Irrelephant11 wrote:Yes, you've said in advance that if you're wrong about B and/or C, yo'ud reevaluate. But you're not reevaluating the statement "more scum were likely to be on the wagon than off", which imo would be the logical thing to do. Instead, you're reevaluating which of the players on the wagon are scum.
Yes...what's the issue with that?
I never said I'd reevaluate a core scumhunting belief.
I said I'd reevaluate my town reads.
You can disagree with the value of doing that - but my stance is super clear, yeah?
In post 633, Irrelephant11 wrote:You never answered my question about why you are so confident in your vote analysis. You seem unrealistically confident about
where
scum voted, even if that takes you to a place where you have to flip your reads: this doesn't make sense to me if reads are the reason for your vote analysis. You've changed your reads to fit the vote analysis that's based on out-of-date reads.
I've changed the vote analysis based on new info.
Like, let's say I'm all "Top scum reads are B on the wagon and C off the wagon!"
Then mod shows up and goes "lol, B is confirmed town"
Yes, my reads can and should change with the new info.
However, if I think it's smart to lynch on the wagon - that does not then require me to vote C.
In post 633, Irrelephant11 wrote:Are you at all catching where the cognitive dissonance is for me? I'm only finding logic for you to scum read Oxy out of nowhere if you are scum trying to ignore your lurker partner.
I see where it is, I'm just not sure why it is, or how I can explain my stance clearer.
Do you get my stance now?
You don't need to *agree* with my stance.
The point is to understand my stance so at least you can assess if the stance is scummy or not.
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Post Post #637 (isolation #93) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:16 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 631, Oxy wrote:Why is there being exactly 1 scum on that wagon not a meaningless value call?
I would note you quote me agreeing with you.
Where I found it meaningless was a discussion of his alignment being interconnected with the thought.
I never suggested scum weren't on the wagon at any point, did I?
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Post Post #638 (isolation #94) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:20 am

Post by Thor665 »

Also, quite frankly, if all i said was "hurr, there's one scum in this group of five players" it would be a meaningless value call.
The value is in saying which you think is scum.
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Post Post #641 (isolation #95) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:23 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 639, Oxy wrote:I wonder how many times it is going to take before I really learn that trying to convince scum they are scum is futile.

Can we hammer this, please?
Yeah...present a needly hypocrisy attack.
get owned.
Ignore ownage and just repeat that i should be lynched.
Town play at its finest, amirite?
In post 640, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 634, Thor665 wrote:You think that at least one scum is on the wagon.


Yes.
It is the most likely option...
...but you treat it as an absolute truth.
Not as rebuttable assumption.
Why?
Why should I not treat it as truth right now?
What rebuttal exists to the idea exactly?
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Post Post #642 (isolation #96) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:25 am

Post by Thor665 »

Spoiler: As an education after I flip for anyone who is town and liked teacher's case
In post 586, teacher wrote:
The Thor Case


First, I’ll acknowledge what everyone else has. I am dealing with a veteran who is very good with words, and also with timing. Its going to be hard as hell to read him.
Some of the reads below will likely feel forced.
But it’s the best I can do. I will say that I tried to approach the game-read from a neutral POV since the statistics were off.
That should be a giant warning sign to everyone.
In post 586, teacher wrote:Second, let me deal with those statistics – which is what got me started down the path of scumming Thor. As I said yesterday, the statistics still make Thor scummy, but only by about 20%. Im not going to break this down, but it’s a matter of applying common sense within the town-lynch and town-save pools rather than doing it on pure math without common sense (which would be 300%). If you want the breakdown, ask, but the bottom line is it makes Thor slightly more likely to be scum.
Still hasn't address the statistical odds that both PRs target same player.
Bet it's lower than the odds of me being scum - but needs to be factual for teacher to be town.
That's a core point to consider in realizing that all of these numbers are poppycock.

Spoiler: Thor case
  • In post 586, teacher wrote:[*]Post is the biggest part of the case, for a few reasons. First, Thor says his issues with “Nauci
    and
    Meji look valid.” I’ll pause before discussing the “and” to note that Thor puts Nauci first, even though the board at this point (and Thor previously) focused on Meji – odd?
    Why is this "odd". Is there something scummy in me suspecting one more than the other?
    Also, frankly, by my posting I've put a lot more effort into pressuring Neji than I have Nauci, so theoretically the "odd" would be me random reversing.
    Finally, it's just a list - there's no indication from my actions before or after that I'm listing them in order of strength of read on them. So...?
    In post 586, teacher wrote: Second, turning to the “and” point, it is critical to note that Thor votes me and
    towns Oxy and Elephant
    . Thus, in this post, Thor says he suspects (Me, Nauci, Meji) and towns (Oxy, Elephant). BUT, when I claim PR, he entirely ignores his earlier suspicions to try to lynch in his town pool ????
    Yes, it is shocking that a PR claim can adjust reads.
    I also note that people aren't trying to lynch NK anymore - is that scummy for everyone who was voting him?
    It also ignores THAT I SAID THIS
    In post 439, Thor665 wrote:I'm also thinking either teacher is scum or one of my town reads is wrong.
    Yeah, what was I doing - secretly setting up my ability to change a read in case you claimed a PR?
    Or was I *even then* being clear in my reads?
    You're either playing terribly for not mentioning this or are scum (and the same goes for everyone not fact checking this case.
    In post 586, teacher wrote:Just for completeness, I will point out that Oxy questioned Thor on this, and Thor responded that he was relying on his read that one scum was on the Wagon, asking “Why should I reevaluate”. . Well the answer is obvious – because the two most likely scum on the wagon have now claimed PR.
    And you're now calling me scum for reevaluating?
    That's narf.
    In post 586, teacher wrote: With new information, is it still just as likely that a scum is on the wagon
    Yes, it is.
    In post 586, teacher wrote: or is it more likely that BOTH your previous suspects are off. Only Scum!Thor refuses to reevaluate his initial assumption that one scum must be on wagon.
    Except I already indicated when I voted you that I considered scum on the wagon to be more likely than the strength of other reads.
    In post 586, teacher wrote: [*]As an aside, I found the willingness to completely ignore Meji and jump to me (before my claim) is a little surprising even with his wagon assumption compared to his D1, which not only suss’ed Meji – – but null-defended me. (e.g., , , ). But to go past NK, Me, AND Meji/Nauci (previously scumread) to Oxy just seems….Scum.
    Or it seems like Thor really buys into his scum hunting theory - which even a casual glance at any of my other games will show is true.
    In post 586, teacher wrote: [*]Thor is online and active in mafiascum games both immediately before and immediately after daybreak here, but does not talk in Rugby. I find an online and silent IC scummy. I think Town!IC reminds the board of the wisdom of a tracker claim and recommends against any other PR claim. I think Scum!IC is surprised to learn that his actions were blocked and stays silent. Note that Thor previously acknowledges that his silences can be intentional .
    What was my scum advantage to being quiet exactly?
    I also note you're saying "reminds about tracker claim and not other claims" Literally no where did I indicate claims should happen without L-1 unless it was a Tracker on Day 2. I'm sorry it's theory scummy that I gave good advice Day 1 and then went quiet in the hope everyone would be an idiot and forget my advice Day 2 so I could secretly get people to claim?

    In post 586, teacher wrote: [*]Post just rubbed me the wrong way if Thor is town. Maybe its true that he was null on every single spot other than James and Meji. But I find that hard to believe, which is why I pushed back. He has to have some town instincts even if he has no certainty. And if he does, and is not sharing them – is that helpful Town!IC behavior??? Or is it more likely Scum!IC depriving town of more expert assessments? I think the latter.
    If I'm the scum IC my "expert assessments" would all be lies anyway, so...what would I gain by denying them to town exactly?
    Also, considering ow little everyone was doing at that stage - it was kind of weird people had more scum and town reads than I did.
    In post 586, teacher wrote: [*]Post is contradicted by his (lack of) action after Flicker unvotes. Thor is saying he wants James or Meji lynched, but wont switch to Meji because the wagon is shorter. But once Flicker unvotes , Thor’s own vote determines what wagon is longer. Thor sees the unvote and posts (335), but does not switch.
    What?
    So you agree that my vote determined which wagon was bigger.
    You also agree that I was good with lynching either.
    So...why should I move off one wagon to create an equally sized wagon? By that logic as soon as I moved I should move back. It's idiotic as a complaint because it doesn't actually show any hypocrisy.
    Where and how do you think it does?
    In post 586, teacher wrote: [*]Thor’s answer to missing the Elephant question is suspect. He says he either missed it or would have been pithy. Well, he wasn’t pithy. And I don’t think he missed it, because it was repeated. . Sure, he may have decided not to answer. But with repeated questions, I would think he would at least remember the decision.
    So, basically even though my eventual answer wasn't really helpful to the vastly broad question you'd like to debate whether it was pithy.
    There is also (as usual) no actual discussion here of how not answering benefited my scum game beyond just kind of being mean (which actually doesn't help the scum wincon, so...)
    In post 586, teacher wrote: [*]As I said yesterday, I find Thor’s responses to James’s FoS (too many to link) to be substantively different than his responses to Elephant’s (e.g., , , ). This could be because of the differing politeness of James and Elephant, but could also be mislynch hunting.
    "Thor may have reacted negatively to one player because they were more rude *OR* he could be scum hunting for mislynches...but not a mislynch on Elephant, scum Thor wouldn't want to mislynch him...for...no reason."
    In post 586, teacher wrote: [*]Post is too early to be making significant reads. But three aspects are slightly interesting.
    • Thor asks DDS to sheep him – trying to build a mislynch block?
    • Thor towns Nauci by implication for raising scumdaychat in thread – clearing partner? (cf. Nauci’s )
    • Thor says talking mechanics to gamesolve is a fine conversation – but D2 scums me for the same.
No, nothing is really AI here, just some questions.[/quote]
A mislynch block is also a town block if James had flipped scum. Why wouldn't town try to make a block? No reason.
So now Nauci might be my partner even though the entire rest of the case hinges on the super thin Meji connection? If I'm Nauci's partner is any of the Meji stuff still scummy?
I didn't scum you for talking game mechanics. I did call you anti-town for pushing for claims. Quote me to prove me wrong?
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Post Post #651 (isolation #97) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:58 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 643, Not Known 15 wrote:There is a possibility that all scum votes off wagon. It happens.
If all your scumreads point off wagon, and none on wagon...
how likely is it that all scum are off the wagon?
1. Absolutely.
2. Depends on the quality of my reads.
In post 644, Irrelephant11 wrote:I think this might clarify things completely for me: Is it the case that you just always assume a town lynch on D1 means there is a scum on the wagon, and that regardless of other information this is such a helpful general assumption that you shuold follow it to your grave?
I wouldn't pu tit to that level o fpsychotic even though multiple people now appear to think I am, so maybe I'm explaining myself overly intensely - but, yes.
In post 644, Irrelephant11 wrote:Even assuming you just really really have to vote between Oxy and me - which is the ssumption we're all questioning - what makes you think Oxy is scummy?
Oxy is scummy for empty cheerleading a lynch and also trying to hang to the rear of every issue.
In post 645, teacher wrote:PEDIT: 614 was a Thor question to me that I havent answered. Thor, I honestly didnt and dont believe your questions were game advancing, so much as a distracting 1v1. I dont blame Oxy for not engaging, which is why I liked how he responded. Same reason Im not replying to your response on my case. I think youre likely scum, and dont see the need to debate. I laid out my views, others can take from both our positions what they want to take and make their own decisions. Replies not needed.
I agree that you and Oxy are both digging in your heels super aggressively and avoiding any interactions that might obligate you to discuss the validity of your stances.
In post 648, Oxy wrote:
In post 642, Thor665 wrote:Still hasn't address the statistical odds that both PRs target same player.
Bet it's lower than the odds of me being scum - but needs to be factual for teacher to be town.
That's a core point to consider in realizing that all of these numbers are poppycock.
I don't understand why you are still arguing statistical fallacies.

The only use this statistic has is to point out that low probability things do occur.
Since half the presented case on me is derp and the other half is blind sheeping of statistics, and both paired with refusal to debate and discuss them - I just want to point them out.
Why do you think I'm scum again exactly?
In post 650, Not Known 15 wrote:2 things that make Thor scummy
1.
In post 625, Thor665 wrote:I'm almost tempted to post a rebuttal to the teacher case on me just because multiple people are claiming it makes sense.
Excuse me? Any town should say "I will post a rebuttal shortly" not that what thor wrote there. This looks like hastily typed by panicking scum under pressure.

2.
The VOTES.
Meji and Thor avoid voting each other like the plague, even in this vote situation(especially Meji avoiding to vote thor). It is likely that they are scumpartners.
1. I don't think that makes any sense and comes with no backing or reasoning. (this also ignores that I did actually post up a rebuttal...but, you are trying to ignore a lot this game for reasons that escape and frustrate me.
2. I also avoided voting you - are we scumbuddies? I've actually not voted most of the game.
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Post Post #652 (isolation #98) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:03 am

Post by Thor665 »

As my last series of requests and lessons before someone derp hammers me;

The refusal to actually discuss the case on me from multiple slots is a big indicator of the issue with this push.
Another is that the core of the push is half based on a strange connection to Meji - which even while it exists in a very vague way, if the reason to explain why I'm scum is "because Meji is scum and here is how he's protecting him" it is straight up stupid to lynch me first in that equation if you can describe how Meji is scum without me being obligated scum.
NK is town, he's dead tonight, but he's town, so whoop-de-doo.
Take any claim from teacher tomorrow with 1000% more salt then you accepted it today.
I'd still pretty much suggest lynching Oxy tomorrow.

I know you'll ignore all of this, but want it out there clearly so I can be salty in post game.
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Post Post #654 (isolation #99) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:10 am

Post by Thor665 »

1. Cool
2. What sort of "more" would you like? I prefer succinct cases because I think long ones lead to including dumb theories and paranoia. I can provide examples of him doing what I'm saying he's doing, if that excites you, but unless my case is confusing you as to what I'm saying I don't see a real need/value to using more words to say the same thing.
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Post Post #656 (isolation #100) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:17 am

Post by Thor665 »

@Not Known - at what point did I suggest your read on James was BS?
You're not quoting me doing that - you're literally inventing a stance, applying it to me, and calling me scummy for doing it.

If Meji implicates me, why are you lynching me before Meji exactly? Am I scum if Meji isn't?

Maybe Meji is avoiding the wagon on me because Meji doesn't want to look scummy when I flip town - is that a thought you've ruled out for any reason?
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Post Post #661 (isolation #101) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:47 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 657, Oxy wrote:@thor if you're town, please give me your thoughts on a world where I am also town
If you're town then either I'm very wrong on Elephant (don't feel it) or Teacher is fakeclaiming (possible, scum knew it was safe).
I find it highly unlikely both scum were off the wagon.
For a theory Elephant partner I'd...I dunno, seems daft. Nauci I guess if I was forced to say a name.
For Teacher I'd tend to expect Flicker or Nauci. Meji would be a daft combo.
In post 658, Irrelephant11 wrote:A couple examples would be nice.
Okay, here's an example of him hanging back on topics;

Look at both the Thor and James wagon. Note when Oxy's attacks start vs. when his vote comes in. He basically spends all of Day 1 sheeping teacher. On Day 2 he got in on Meji late, and only moved to me after both Teacher had voted me and I'd voted Oxy. That's a wagon hanger, not a wagon leader.

For his empty cheerleading, let's look at this;
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10145277
He attacks me (for hypocrisy).
He repeats the attack when i don't answer right away (a follow up attack by inference)
I then answer.
He doesn't rebut my answer, he just goes "hah, scum!" even though he has shown no hypocrisy. That is just empty noise, he's trying to make it *seem* like there's a reason to scum read me, when in fact there's nothing.

Here's another;
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10139516
Thor is scum for not townreading my undercutting of teacher!
I ask him why should I town read it and point out there is no undercutting of any worth.
He counters that he took it from, like (making up these numbers, but they are thematically accurate) 400% Thor is scum to 20% Thor is scum.
I point out that he then is still agreeing with the case and voting me, so where is the undercut I'm supposed to town read him for?
He cuts off the conversation because it's "muddying the waters and distracting town"
That's not someone trying to understand me or show me something.

Here's another
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10139355
He says I'm flailing, that I yelled at him, that this makes me scum (for reasons...?)
I point out that I didn't do any of those things and ask for a quote showing where I did.
He comes back with the "can't respond, Thor is just good at debate" claim and ducks the question.

I guess I am pretty brilliant at debate when you make up stuff and I ask you why you believe it...? How clever and word twisting of me?

It's an entire ISO like that.
Saying lots without saying anything.
In post 659, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 656, Thor665 wrote:If Meji implicates me, why are you lynching me before Meji exactly? Am I scum if Meji isn't?
You being town would erase that implication that also implicates themselves if you are scum
If you are scum then we can catch every possible partner via power roles and lynch.
If Meji is scum and we lynch them tomorrow we have a much smaller pool of suspects if you are town.
If you and Meji are town we lose anyways..., unless, of course either me or teacher catch scum tonight. Especially if I catch scum.

@Elephant yeah please don't hammer asap, that was an overreaction.
I'll agree that lynching people gives you a smaller pool.
What I'm asking is what is this super strong Thor/Meji connection exactly? All you have is that I didn't vote him when I was on a wagon of someone else that was larger and indicated I would only move if the Meji wagon got larger, and that she hasn't voted me (even though she hasn't really been around to vote me).
That's pretty much it.
That's super thin, and is *not* a good reason to lynch either of us.

What is the actual case that either of us is scum that isn't about us not voting each other?
I submit there isn't one on me, and only a very minor one on Meji. I'm fine with that, but you need to be aware of it to make accurate value calls in game and not overreact.
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Post Post #662 (isolation #102) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:48 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 660, teacher wrote:
In post 657, Oxy wrote:@thor if you're town, please give me your thoughts on a world where I am also town
echoed. If you’re town and with intent out there please lay out your best assessment. (Leave out oxy also town for me).
I've already done one without a presumed Oxy town.
I asked you to lynch Oxy.
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Post Post #664 (isolation #103) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:58 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 663, teacher wrote:Why do you town Elephant more than Oxy when Oxy tried to stop the James Wagon?
Because reads can exist from more than small singular moments.
In post 663, teacher wrote:This is not an associational or comparative claim from me, but direct to Oxy's conduct standing alone. I dont see that conduct from a scum on a mislynch wagon, even if it is to a different mislynch wagon (which I doubt).
I disagree.
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Post Post #667 (isolation #104) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:08 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 665, teacher wrote:
In post 664, Thor665 wrote:Because reads can exist from more than small singular moments.
OK, then what about Elephant D2 AT THE TIME YOU SHIFTED TO OXY was far more townie than Oxy's attempt to change wagons? Because at end of D1 you said you were null on Elephant (and Oxy). Or did you lie in response to my question end of D1 when you claimed they were both null? This isnt adding up.
Considering the likelihood of my lynch, and my reads, this conversation is immensely boring and not worth the time walking you through how reads work.
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Post Post #668 (isolation #105) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:09 am

Post by Thor665 »

I mean, if you think I lied when i called them both null then why does your case for me being scum flip nuggets when i reverse my amazing Oxy town read to voting Oxy?
*That* doesn't make sense.
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Post Post #670 (isolation #106) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:27 am

Post by Thor665 »

What part of how I read wagons, which I've explained at length, and to multiple players, is still confusing to you?
Literally they were asking me the same thing.
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Post Post #674 (isolation #107) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:42 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 672, Oxy wrote:
In post 661, Thor665 wrote:If you're town then either I'm very wrong on Elephant (don't feel it) or Teacher is fakeclaiming (possible, scum knew it was safe).
I find it highly unlikely both scum were off the wagon.
For a theory Elephant partner I'd...I dunno, seems daft. Nauci I guess if I was forced to say a name.
For Teacher I'd tend to expect Flicker or Nauci. Meji would be a daft combo.
Thanks, mate. I promise I'll really dig into this if you flip green.
As long as it's deeper than your analysis of me I'll get excited.
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Post Post #685 (isolation #108) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:56 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 684, Irrelephant11 wrote:I'm not sure I'm of the mind that town Thor completely frees Meji to be town?
I would agree. Especially since the connection to me is slim and one sided.
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Post Post #687 (isolation #109) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:15 am

Post by Thor665 »

I still think that scum is on the wagon.
But have never said it is an inviolate rule of absolution - that is a spin others are putting into my mouth and then acting derp excited to call it hypocritical. ;)
Learn to read?
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Post Post #688 (isolation #110) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:16 am

Post by Thor665 »

Next thing you'll know I'll have people go from null to town overnight after a flip, and then shift one from town to scum after two role claims.
I'm CrAzY and none of this could possibly make sense![/sarcasm]
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Post Post #690 (isolation #111) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:10 am

Post by Thor665 »

Because I don't vote for self preservation.
And if me voting Meji would suddenly make me not worth voting and some other wagon happen - then people need to examine the reasons why they're voting me.
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Post Post #693 (isolation #112) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:28 am

Post by Thor665 »

If I had to randomly guess now I'd hazard a Nauci, Flicker, or you.
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Post Post #695 (isolation #113) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:11 pm

Post by Thor665 »

It's almost as though my lack of voting for him despite scumreading him has validity in my world view.
Shocking.
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Post Post #699 (isolation #114) » Tue May 01, 2018 1:20 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 696, teacher wrote:But why? You have said repeatedly they were scummy. Now I think you are saying they aren’t. Why?
I am not saying that, in fact I said the opposite. I literally said they were a scum read.
I feel like either you are *trying* to create confusion or you're just not reading what I'm saying.
Can you try to help me out here? I'm getting reeeeeeally bored with repeating myself in circles constantly.
Like, please, quote where I call Meji a town read? I'd love to see that. And if you can't, if you need to do some sort of weird "I inferred it" answer - then maybe just go with me directly stating Meji is a scum read?
In post 696, teacher wrote:What have they done to town themselves. Or why are they not on any scum team? Seriously I feel like I’m missing something.
I never said they did anything to town themselves. :roll:
I do think they have issues being on a number of scum teams due to how fast the wagon on them formed, and the way the wagon was moved off them.
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Post Post #701 (isolation #115) » Tue May 01, 2018 1:56 am

Post by Thor665 »

I'll point out that whoever opted to flip me to learn about Meji as opposed to flipping Meji opted to kill an active IC as opposed to a lurking nebbish nothing slot.
So, basically, if that wasn't Nk - consider whoever suggested that pivot *and whoever leapt at it quickly* to be good lynch options tomorrow also.

Hope you guys get better about tunneling, that's probably the biggest bad thing town is doing this game outside of the lurking (and, if certain slots are town, the not-reading ;) ).

Hammer away.
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Post Post #702 (isolation #116) » Tue May 01, 2018 1:57 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 700, Not Known 15 wrote:Follow Teacher and their leads.
Also don't do this.
Question those reads.
He's not confirmed and his cases are dreck.
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Post Post #704 (isolation #117) » Tue May 01, 2018 3:29 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 703, teacher wrote:To be clear, I started and encouraged the Thor shift. I still feel good about the associational inference - that a town Thor implies a town Meji in a way that is not true in reverse.
How?
Who are my other theory partners vs. Meji's exactly?
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Post Post #705 (isolation #118) » Tue May 01, 2018 3:30 am

Post by Thor665 »

Frankly, Meji i splaying my lynch like a scum who doesn't want to touch a terrible wagon.
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Post Post #710 (isolation #119) » Tue May 01, 2018 3:55 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 706, teacher wrote:
In post 704, Thor665 wrote:Who are my other theory partners vs. Meji's exactly?
To provide just one example, Elephant. There are others.
Your theory being that I would townread my partner and not vote him (Elephant) or scum read my partner and not vote him (Meji) so...basically you have almost the entire playerbase to choose from.

Why are you not ruling out people who vote me? You seem to be ruling out people who vote Meji, so...?
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Post Post #712 (isolation #120) » Tue May 01, 2018 3:59 am

Post by Thor665 »

A) Never said he did, but you also said there are others, so...that would put a big hole in possible candidates.
B) What system are you using to rule out everyone else but me for Meji then?
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Post Post #713 (isolation #121) » Tue May 01, 2018 4:01 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 707, teacher wrote:
In post 693, Thor665 wrote:If I had to randomly guess now I'd hazard a Nauci, Flicker, or you.
Adding this to my scumcase on Thor. Because I find this list of Oxy's possible partners pretty terrible for including Flicker. I dont see Oxy's hard scumming and voting of Flicker (162, 163, 169, 261, 404, 409, 448, 613) as distancing. And it started too early to bus.

I concede that I am a possible partner, except for knowing my role. And Nauci is also possible, but again a less unlikely given her prominence in Oxy's 353 and 448. This is why Oxy is the towniest in my PoE pool.
"Adding this to the scumcase on Thor - when I asked him for an opinion, he said it wasn't something he fcused on but answered, and I agree with two of his answers but disagree with one - so SCUM CASE, DERPA-DERP!"
:neutral:
Hope you are scum.
If you're not - get better than this - you're soooo tunneled it's obnoxious.
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Post Post #714 (isolation #122) » Tue May 01, 2018 4:03 am

Post by Thor665 »

Frankly, from my interactions with NK and Elephant - I think a good teaching lesson here is; there's a difference between someone saying something that is scummy, and someone saying something you disagree with.
Please try to take that one to heart.
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Post Post #718 (isolation #123) » Tue May 01, 2018 4:34 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 716, teacher wrote:FMPOV, Meji's only other possible possible in Nauci. Your other possibile partners are Nauci, Elephant, Flicker.
If Meji has a possible partner of Flicker how does flipping me town help clear Meji?
If it doesn't - then what's the logic behind flipping me first exactly?
In post 716, teacher wrote:Im not tunnelled into you. I have said I find Meji scummier standing alone. I just think flipping you advances the game more for town.
I agree that you claim to find Meji scummier while going out of your way to vote me and call everything I do scummy.
::shrug::
I call that tunneled - you can call it whatever you like.
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Post Post #721 (isolation #124) » Tue May 01, 2018 4:49 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 719, teacher wrote:
In post 718, Thor665 wrote:If Meji has a possible partner of Flicker how does flipping me town help clear Meji?
Explain to me why Flicker would L-2 her partner, or hold off hammering you here if this was a partnership. Because Im not buying.
I fail to see holding off hammering me as something either town or scum would be unwilling to do - can you explain why you think town would delay and scum would run slavering towards the option of a mislynch?

In your world where you don't think scum vote each other - yeah, I agree, L-2 is a thing.
In my world where scum happily vote each other all the time, I don't think the vote looked all that impressive, and Flicker has actually been less content to vote me, which suggests that if I'm town it would make Meji more likely scum due to the difference in attitude.

So you're thinking Flicker *isn't* Meji's partner anymore?
Or are you just ducking my question of if Meji/Flicker is a thing it defeats the entire silly idea of lynching me to clear Meji your stronger scumread?
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Post Post #722 (isolation #125) » Tue May 01, 2018 4:50 am

Post by Thor665 »

Lynching me first when I know for a fact scum tried to kill me last night makes a ton of sense for scum.
Just saying.
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Post Post #726 (isolation #126) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:00 am

Post by Thor665 »

Uh huh.

I'm going to flip town.
So now when I call you tunneled you can at least know I was being honest in my thoughts ;)

I'd say there is a lot of scum energy around my wagon and it's hard to sort through it all because THERE WAS SO MUCH IFFY PLAY!
Teacher uses bad logic and twists reality - but maybe he's just tunneled.
Oxy is dodgy and ducking - but maybe he's just tunneled and honestly thinks talking is anti-town.
Flicker is opportunistic (but maybe he just didn't think I was scoring any points in the debate.
Meji was trying to white knight (but maybe she's the only half decent player here).

Ehhhhh...

I still lean towards Oxy as most likely scum.
Meji is an okay second but heavily tied with Flicker.
Please don't sheep anything teacher says - actually use your brains and debate.
This town needs more discussion and less blind sheeping.

Good luck!
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Post Post #727 (isolation #127) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:00 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 725, teacher wrote:Thor want to beat Smith to disclosing. And want to suggest actions for tomorrow?
Ignore you.
Maybe lynch you for tunneling ;)
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Post Post #728 (isolation #128) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:01 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 724, teacher wrote:
In post 721, Thor665 wrote:So you're thinking Flicker *isn't* Meji's partner anymore?
Or are you just ducking my question of if Meji/Flicker is a thing it defeats the entire silly idea of lynching me to clear Meji your stronger scumread?
Not ducking your question. If I ever thought Meji-Flicker were a thing, I would agree that I should lynch Meji. But I never did, and I still dont, think Meji-Flicker could be a team. (reasons include 136, 265, and 574 and the next paragraph)
Then why tell me Flicker is a potential Meji buddy if after I point out how that invalidates your stance to lynch me you then need to backtrack?
This is scummy as hell or really sloppy play.
In post 724, teacher wrote:Since Meji is the alternative lynch to you, I would expect a hammer. Especially since I have stated that town you clears her scum partner in my point of view. So I am pointing out that I find the team you have proposed is even more incredible now than it was before.
Okay...?
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Post Post #731 (isolation #129) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:09 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 729, teacher wrote:Tracking is going to be interesting
if he flips town
. For example, I cant decide if NK is likely to go to the deep or shallow end of the PoE pool. Looking at associatives makes (Nauci Elephant Flicker) the richest. I wonder if I should go there, or assume NK will. Conversely, going off scummiest, the richest is (Meji, Nauci, Flicker). Knowing both those facts though makes Oxy tempting. Enough for now....I dont think there is much to be gained from this exercise. Really hoping this is a scum flip!

Good luck everyone tonight.
In post 730, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 726, Thor665 wrote:I'm going to flip town.
I doubt that.

But if its true...
again, my plan.... when I die pressure the low posters Nauci, Flicker, Meji. Pressure Oxy for Thor's case.
Follow teacher's leads.
You two, and I know for a fact one of you is town, ARE TUNNELED BLIND.
Holy cow.
Get out of the tunnel and communicate with people functionally - especially in twilight.

@NK - Teahcer's plans and reads have been TERRIBLE stop advising everyone to "trust" him.
He's not confirmed, and his reads haven't shown quality, so what are they supposed to trust him on exactly?

This pains my soul, get used to being wrong, it happens all the time in Mafia, the important thing is not to double down on wrong.
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Post Post #734 (isolation #130) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:12 am

Post by Thor665 »

Describe how you think you are?
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Post Post #735 (isolation #131) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:12 am

Post by Thor665 »

I mean, it's objectively factual NK wasn't.
I don't think you were either - but feel free to describe it to me.
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Post Post #737 (isolation #132) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:16 am

Post by Thor665 »

I understand it's not getting you to change your plan.
But by what evidence do you think teacher's reads should be followed exactly?
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Post Post #738 (isolation #133) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:17 am

Post by Thor665 »

I'm also fascinated that I'm being accused of 'death tunneling' a game theory, not a player.
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Post Post #743 (isolation #134) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:34 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 739, Oxy wrote:thor, mate, your reads are no better than anyone else this game, if you're town
I'm not saying they are.
I am saying (and have been saying all day) that the case on me is based on a tunnel, bad math, and no actual scum reasons.

I presented scum reasons on you and tried to debate you on them - you never engaged. :shrug:
In post 739, Oxy wrote:so probably less with the insulting and trash talk /shrug
I'm not trash talking.
I may be insulting - if you can think of a better way I can convey my points without sounding insulting I will be happy for it.
In post 741, Oxy wrote:so get off the high horse. You could have tried to help, but you pretty much just threw a tantrum.
How did I not try to help?
I answered all questions.
I offered my reads constantly.
I countered the case on me point for point.
:neutral:

I think others could have helped me by reading my posts and not being tunneled, yeah?
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Post Post #744 (isolation #135) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:34 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 742, Meji Fan wrote:What are last thoughts on Nauci and Elephant?
Maybe scum.
Town.
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Post Post #745 (isolation #136) » Tue May 01, 2018 5:45 am

Post by Thor665 »

@Oxy - dead serious, if you think i just threw a tantrum, ask the listmod to check me out. if I'm doing that I shouldn't be an IC.
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Post Post #1205 (isolation #137) » Wed May 16, 2018 4:20 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 1180, Oxy wrote:-Thor refused to reevaluate on James, who I read correctly. He strongly town read elephant, which strengthened my read on flicker because I figured thor would get at least one read right. And then he made a hard switch from a town read on me to a scum read on me based on a tracker claim that didn't have to exist and the same dubious wagon analysis that he had chided me for in D1.
Still not sure why me changing a read after a claim is so confusing to you.
That seems like a very normal thing to do.
Also, if you were going to sheep my townread on Elephant enough to blame me afterwards, maybe take note that the townread there was based on the idea you were the scum on the wagon? :lol:
In post 1191, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 1190, Oxy wrote:why did you jail teacher?
teacher was right about what they said. About my motivation and so on.
Lesson learned at least wait a bit more before claiming JK even if you are under fire.


I'd like to see the thoughts of the IC about this result here.
Your jail couldn't prove anything with two scum alive, just like it couldn't prove whether I was scum or not on Day 2.
I don't think it hurt, but it also didn't help.
If I was you I'd probably have been trying to lynch people you thought were scum likely to commit the kill, just to take a wild stab at stopping it.
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Post Post #1206 (isolation #138) » Wed May 16, 2018 4:21 am

Post by Thor665 »

lynch = jail.
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #139) » Wed May 16, 2018 6:16 am

Post by Thor665 »

I think it's fine.
At the end of the day, really, the only goal in the Newbie setup as far as I'm concerned is to have a non-broken setup that includes the possibility for multiple role interactions and guardedly punishes claiming too early.
I think the current setup does this a little bit better than the last, so it's pretty much clicking all of my boxes :lol:
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Post Post #1213 (isolation #140) » Sat May 19, 2018 4:13 am

Post by Thor665 »

Eh, maybe. My lynch push felt very quicksandy. Those can be difficult to redirect.
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