MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[MathBlade]

I am me.

I love math and hate math.

My favorite math is pure math but applied has its uses.

I bet scum would use stats and not calculus.

Reading after civ game tonight.

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Nope. Pi is not sliceable. Pie is but not eating that.

After a quick skim it looks like DGB has claimed a guilty on Nom.
Nom weaves a tail of what seems to be uncomprehensible bullshit.
Jake claims they aren’t town.

I kinda feel like the team is DGB Nom and Jake.

Before you go wtf hear me out:

This exact play reminds me back to Yellowstone a fake claim being crafted to a situation.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12412763

The thing is I don’t get why Jake confirms that.

I just know that stuff isn’t adding up here.

The answer I feel I am supposed to buy based on that skim is Jake Scum/3P Nom is scum and DGB town but this kinda feels like its scum game. DGB can you give me some reads to ease my paranoia here? I really want to believe I repped into an easy win but I kinda feel like things aren’t that simple considering limits and the Euler method are integral to calculus (and other math) and make a lot possible I would be guessing that we would be looking for something with subjectivity for the scum since they’re called intuitionists (sp? Phone posting and SoC)

I think since we have to go one at a time we should probably pick within these three for today and narrow scope so I am going to start with their ISOs more in depth.

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Looking over DGBs ISO and it’s claim, I don’t see why it checked Nom. Cop checks are generally done on null reads.
On 273 it said Nom is town.
I would like to hear from its perspective why it picked nom and not say my slot or a lurker or hell even Titus is always a good check because she’s Titus (okay maybe that’s just me here)

I am looking specifically for a town tell I believe it has and it hasn’t done either of its tells yet but I am looking for something particular.

Reviewing Nom’s ISO it just doesn’t make sense for a friendly neighbor. So I am pretty sure the claim is fake. The question remains is what does nom get from this specifically. They claimed fn and then Toog says they blocked them.

Now for case and purpose I am going to assume nom scum here because if nom truthtelling then Toog as any alignment benefits by truthtelling.

So if Nom and Toog are scum, Toog claimed for the purpose of attempting to save Nom. This would likely make Nom a high value PR. Doubly so if Jake is also scum. (Pretty much anyone who claims not town and doesn’t town it up is scum in my eyes.)

If Nom is scum and Toog is town, then Nom ended up outing a town PR thus making the bad claim helpful if Nom thinks he would die or a planned death. Therefore if this is a planned reaction (either by DGB or by feeling “outed”) then the most likely conclusion is Toog is town.

Jake’s ISO feels really uncaring/unguided. The math jokes were hilarious. Remind me to talk about cardinality sometime. Infinity’s infinity can be mind hurting fun.

However after Nom’s claim Jake suddenly starts caring and trying. This seems more aligned with Nom than a 3P. I think Jesters are bastard (except in Critical Role) and the OP says 3P doesn’t exist. So why does Jake claim not town. More trolling?

Will look over everyone’s iso tomorrow but I am going to play some consolatory gaming since I lost.

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https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 3#p8253143

More stuff to look at DGB+Muffins scum together.

Xlos sir your post is bad but I think it’s Townie bad. We have a lot on the table and we need a game plan to ensure accountability. We do not just let someone go from a guilty without a leash at minimum and barring a damn good claim we elim them.

The only issue I have with that is Jake is also in the barring a damn good claim we elim them camp. Claiming not town and his intro posts were jokey but didn’t start actually being serious and saying not to claim until Nom was pressured.

And yes, Titus DGB could have checked Nom and had a good reason but I want to hear it explain it. Hopefully in that explanation it towntells and my paranoia is gone but DGB commonly claims guilties on buddies.

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DGB commonly claims guilties on buddies

Source?

Also why is Muffin relevant?

It’s linked in the post that game search for guilty.

He ran a fake claim gambit in Whitestone.

@Jake — if you’re town then you were. If you’re scum then something caused you to be serious. There’s a good motto I have is that when someone tells you they’re not town you trust them on it. If you want me to think you’re town then just be town and quit joking around. There’s more than enough content for you to interact with. I am for the record not shading you. I stated what you did and my interpretations nothing else.

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+1 I like that. To be fair me being killed kinda works in our favor because reasons. Once I skimmed I figured it was between any of DGB Nom and Jake and Nom is the sensible play there.

Btw I think that’s e-1 if my math is right. I won’t hammer until I am caught up.

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DGB commonly claims guilties on buddies.

Commonly? I did that once that I remember, in Yellowstone, where I fakeclaimed 1-shot cop. You think I'd do exactly the same gambit? You'd think I'd be a little bit more creative about it.

Is this the literal twilight zone?
I’ve provided two examples. One in Yellowstone and one where you were scum with Muffin and Muffin makes it all the way to end game.

Two I have an extremely hard time believing the mod would put in a cop, a “modified role PM” role cop AND someone informed about “modified role PM cop”. (More on this later) This depending upon what “modified role PM” means could be that people would be looking at two innocents/guilties in a 13 P game. Combined with follow the cop on a doc flip is sus as fuck.

Three why are you not answering the questions I asked. I asked why nomnom and what your reads are and I get nothing. This is in stark contrast to Warehouse 13. When you town tell I can and will go to the ends of the earth for you so why won’t you just town tell for me?

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Combined with follow the cop on a doc flip is sus as fuck.

Why would this happen though? DGB is explicitly a 1 shot cop. It can't happen, even if scum lack a roleblocker.

Replace DGB with another certain player who is being kinda weird and maybe should reread my paragraph. You’re also assuming DGB is one shot. A good strategy for a cop is to lie about being one shot when they aren’t.

My main focus was on you and whatever the modified rolecop thing is you claimed. Murdercat smart play would be to sit on you each night since you claimed cop. Which makes it sus Murdercat is dead.

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High level thoughts based on reading so far:
(In order by playlist because mobile please ignore extra symbols hard to remove them on mobile)

DrippingGoofball+
>> Claimed cop with a guilty on nom. If town then high kill equity but why no reads? Why doesn’t it want to town tell or help find the other scum from its pov? Once a guilty is claimed hunting becomes extremely hard and I would think it would want to find scum no?

(Accounting for recent posts)
Found your answer (sorry for missing it and I am wholly unsatisfied.) That’s the thing though. You’re saying it’s a guilty over and over but you’re not doing the things a person with a guilty does. You’re expecting me to “just believe” your claim. If I believed your claim then I wouldn’t be criticizing it because I believed it. I don’t think a mod puts 2-3 cops of various types (you, Titus, A50) (even one shot) in a game with a full doctor and a roleblocker. Follow the cop becomes an unavoidable issue. I am trying to figure out who is truthtelling and who is lying and you just being “guilty” without a goddamn care in the world if you die that we will have your thoughts really really feels fake. Combined with your predisposition towards faking guilties and like I get the smart play is to vote nom here but I really don’t want to until I get you and things sorted.

(Irrelevant aside) please don’t joke about reporting players to admins. This seems in bad taste.

Flea The Magician+*
>> Horrible miselimination. Faer is like chicken. Leave faer in the oven a bit and faer will scum/town tell when faer gets free of medical issues. Time permitting need to look back on the wagon.

Xlos+
>> A(n) in your intro post is arbitrarily defined. I am happy you also share a bachelor’s in math like me. However I am not a fan of your posting. Assume for a moment that the distribution is as suggested and there is a scum in each of the kingdoms. Would we then just arbitrarily eliminate one? Flavor tends to be just flavor if/until demonstrated otherwise.

Initial reads seem to suffer from the too many town reads problem. Overall feels very scummy. Also not a fan of their suggestion from nomnom. I think there’s a major flaw in it and I think saying what is antitown but will do so if prompted.

Almost50+
Where oh where is my a50 gone? Claims rolecop similar to Titus. Neither A50 nor Titus are dead. A50 being quiet/unremarkable sends scum pings for me hard.

If nom is scum, a50 shoots up the list for possible buddies. If nom is town then A50 can go to null but must provide content.

Claimed cop why not dead?
Very much in the scum pool. Needs to show the wim.

Jake The Wolfie+
Jake’s ISO I guess would be town by PoE but ewww I hate their iso. (Already commented why earlier)

Galron+
I see where Galron started with T3 but I don’t think T3 is scum because it’s kinda dumb to claim informed early if scum. Yes usually informed is scum only but I think there’s some weird shit going on here. I like most of their progression and while I disagree with their logic on Nom I can see how someone would get there.

MathBlade+
Me the math loving person who apparently has all the value to the yard and makes all the theorems say what variables are enabled?

T3+
Claims informed. Two players back their informed claim. Very likely informed now just a matter of alignment. I don’t like how they went from DGB you’re dying tomorrow to where there at now. Would be hoping to see more good hunting than random votes.

Titus+
Claimed rolecop.
I believe her claim more so than a50’s.
In order of believability it is >> 1) Titus 2) DGB 3) A50.
I think her ISO is pretty solid but I will always have Titus paranoia. Especially when murdercat was killed over T3 and two cop claims. Like I get the smart thing and she’s doing it I just feel so much is unresolved.

WhemeStar+*
Is it bad you believe the nom claim? No? Your beliefs are your beliefs. I think with claims out so far I think it might be a good idea for you to extrapolate some. Assuming you’re town then if nom is town you either save Nom or demonstrate what pinged you and then we can use it as a starting point. If nom is scum then you learn how to judge nom claims better. Assuming you’re scum there’s risk involved but I think you’re town and it’s antitown to go into those risks so gonna quit rambling now.

11: MURDERCAT+
Dead doctor. Question is is MurderCat dead for being a doctor or reads or null kill? No one seems to be looking into this. Yes I am aware this looks bad on me if MC was killed for reads but theories should be built.

12: Toogeloo+
Very very likely roleblocker. I don’t see Town fake claiming to block nom and I don’t see Toog as scum fake claiming to save a buddy while claiming two shot. The two of that two shot could easily be leashed if scum. Very likely town two shot Roleblocker.

13: nomnomnom+
Their claim is just horrendously bad. Like “Werewolf is Mafia” levels bad. But I think in some ways the three cop problem is even worse.

Like I pretty much have a pool of would be okay to die peoples and that’s where I am at. I just kinda think something is hinky

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Combined with follow the cop on a doc flip is sus as fuck.

Why would this happen though? DGB is explicitly a 1 shot cop. It can't happen, even if scum lack a roleblocker.

We have a whopping 3 cop claims (of some variety) Titus.
And a full blown doc.

Follow the cop is very much a thing even if all are one shot and it becomes even worse because the cop is distributed. Scum can no longer kill by play they kill by role.

Secondly, the only thing we have is DGB’s word it has one shot. I almost never trust a DGB cop claim having been burnt by DGB fake claiming before and its play doesn’t lead toward it being a cop. Like I get what the “smart” thing to do is just sheep it but I am struggling with that.

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You’re saying it’s a guilty over

I thought that doing this right out of the gate would be hint enough, and some players did take the hint.

You seem very focused on trying to find fault with me. But my choice of player did land me a guilty, so it was a very good choice.

You wrote: "I don’t think a mod puts 2-3 cops of various types (you, Titus, A50) (even one shot) in a game with a full doctor and a roleblocker." Did you notice that I said that I believe Toog may be a scum roleblocker?

I am trying to sort you there is a difference. If you were a different player I think I don’t have as many reservations but you I do because of your past history so I have to sort you more. So it’s not a “trying to find fault” it’s a “is this a legit guilty” or “can we get a 2 for 1” or “is it taking advantage of a player it thinks can’t defend itself” or a “scum did something and you’re both town”

IF you’re town and IF no scum fuckery then yes it was a good choice. But here I kinda think an inno with a one shot would have been almost better here. Because then scum face the dilemma of killing for clears and the clear would have control and in a 13P game with 11 alive a clear is worth more I think in numbers.

So I am trying to figure out what world we are in.
If nom is town, sheep’s have a high probability of scum.
If nom is scum then non sheep’s have a high probability of scum.

I noticed where you said you think Toog is a roleblocker but I don’t think a two shot roleblocker works for this setup and depending upon the type of rolecop that exists (taking T3 at his word it does) because then a rolecop gets a guilty on Toog and two shots is low power for a one slot cop let alone a split cop. The newbie queue has 1 full cop and doc vs roleblocker. No other power.

A (one shot?) cop (you) + doc + roleblocker + two other cops (of unknown shots) = vast levels of power.

That’s kinda why like something doesn’t add up here.

I just want to take my time to figure out what.

[MathBlade]

If find this very scummy coming from MathBlade because

my guilty is a correct guilty

.

the “smart” thing to do is just sheep it but I am struggling with that.

Another MathBlade quote pings:

"its play doesn’t lead toward it being a cop"

- as if my anyone can pigeonhole my play.

Oh no! I don’t instantly trust the player with a record of doing this very thing now I am “pingy” I don’t give a fuck and am still gonna sort. Look how many fucks I give with how scummy I look I care about the truth.

Do you think the game is nom+me+Toog? If so then explain it. Push that world.

If not then explain your reads. If you think I am scum get me to talk more. You get more flies with honey than vinegar.

The only thing I have been asking you to do is Townie things that assume your guilty is genuine. Why do you insist on attacking me instead?

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Furthermore “some may be lying”

Yet you aren’t even trying to sort which?

C’mon. Like seriously goofball.

If you think players are lying you can’t very well say I am scummy for attempting to figure out which.

That just seems very self serving and defensive.

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@T3, I am a modified rolecop too. That means

if the mod modifies my role pm, I am a rolecop.

This is definitely not a cop claim. Lmao.

I thought it was serious because theme game. Yay Aspieness.

Still doesn’t explain T3’s informed. Regular cop doesn’t match modified role cop.

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It’s a pretty weird thing to lie about on d1. I don’t think it would be a lie.

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By the way, anyone who claims a type of Modified Rolecop is confirmed town. This information I have from somewhere that I will not elaborate on furter.

What incentive does a town T3 have to lie about this?
(Yes I see scum incentive while odd I see it)

Can you show me where a town T3 lied in a similar way?
I think it’s too specific to be a lie.

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That being said I think nom putting themselves at e-1 and not hammering is kinda meant to cut off discussion. I think scum hate what I am doing.

Intent to hammer after lunch

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Also please don't hammer.

Why not?

What are you hoping to see here?

Nom, if town, has resigned and if scum wants our conversation to end or day to just end.
DGB, I can’t really get a sort on while it has decided I am scum for hunting it.
A50 has pretty much just decided not to post.

A majority of the slots I have either already sorted enough to know they won’t be the elim or just aren’t here.

We can only do one elim a day. You’re not giving me anything that can change my reasoning. Can you find an example of something anywhere?

Pedit:

Because I think while if nom is scum, it is a tool to cut off discussion I think it’s kind of successful. I think you me and Titus are the main ones doing hunting right now and I am not sure where that sweet spot is between “fruit you’re given so game doesn’t stall/toxic/lethargic” and “pushing for clarifying reads is”

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About?

And holiday night time VLA is perfect. If I know I am gonna be VLA over night time I actually would love to have night fall there unless you’re scum? Help me out here.

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Versus being gone during the day where everyone can interact with you?

Yes what you say is true but you can do that first day you’re back or you can submit conditionals to the mod if you need to.

And you didn’t answer what you want to talk about.

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Math, I want to actually see how your reads reset supposing no one counters DGB.

I want to be able to parse the relationships in detail because there are relationships here.

No one countering DGB isn’t enough for me.

It has to towntell for me to remove it from possibility. In Yellowstone

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12446609

It used the exact same font style. If it quacks like a duck walks like a duck and acts like a duck it’s probably a duck. So the more DGB doesn’t do their town tell the more I think it’s scum.

I also understand it’s unhealthy and depends on Nom being scum.
I also understand that blah blah is bad to say and leads me to think DGB is lying about being a cop but also Nom is probably scum.

So I don’t see the value in prolonging the day when DGB isn’t even trying.

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Yes. That’s the world I am in yes. If you look at the game linked Yellowstone DGB did the exact same thing with AGamblingPig.
If you look at the second link, with DGB and Muffin DGB said they investigated Muffin and then muffin coasted to end game.

That’s always been my point and I think DGB is a liar. Nom’s is implausible and so is DGB if we take T3 at face value and I think we should.

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+1 again I approve I just don’t know where to go from here until we know if my basis for thought (Nom being scum) is accurate.
DGB is of no help just screaming guilty and not actually hunting/trying to find anyone that could be linked with nom. It then just spouts me because I distrust it. It’s a lazy answer. It also suspects Toog of being scum because of setup spec.

A lot of today just seems lazy and spoon fed. I wish we had multiple elims in a single day to sort it but I kinda wonder about taking what’s given or if there is fuckery.

Looking at all the claims here and assuming they are town

T3 informed rolecop (very likely true you’re probably not going to convince me otherwise)
DGB 1 shot alignment cop who checked nom
Nom blocked friendly neighbor with something to do with prime numbers (I don’t follow tbh)
Toog said they blocked Nom
Murdercat dead Ungated doctor
Someone claimed neighbor accidentally (leaving this vague so scum don’t catch on)

The simplest scenario to analyze is Toog and Noom
SvS >> Unlikely as if we don’t elim Noom today then Noom is forced to neighbor someone and can’t. Then Toog is hella suspicious. Ergo no scum benefit to claiming the block

Noom scum Toog town >> Most likely
Noom town Toog town >> Possible here but I find it unlikely unless DGB faked the guilty which it wouldn’t like me poking at it. I find this scenario unlikely as it would require scum!DGB to have been lying about the guilty or a town DGB sort of manipulation (redirector bus driver framer etc) in play.
Noom town Toog scum >> Possible but unlikely. Toog would then have to out when he uses his second block and against this PR list that seems a bit weak.

So most likely is Noom scum Toog town.

So then if Toog is town and two shot RB and a doctor exists how does this work with town!DGB Titus?
Even if I still take away the rolecop which I am pretty sure exists then what?
Pedit:
I strongly suspect T3 is town and truthtelling. Call it gut if you wish.

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If we take out T3’s claim for shits and giggles then you still have a neighbor a full doc a two shot roleblock and a 1 shot alignment cop. It’s still pretty sus. It’s more possible yes but I really really think T3 truth and town told

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In Yellowstone I don’t remember if it was at the start of the day but it’s about planning and positioning.

A smart cop claim waits and sees what their guilty will spew see about getting another. You saw this when I got a “guilty” in that one game where it wasn’t actually a guilty because of reasons and we properly elimmed you instead in a game you called “not mafia”.

I just don’t see evidence of it trying to hunt here.

Pedit: I kinda don’t want to say who unless I have to.
There’s enough directly open anyway I guess the risk is minimal

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Currently: Bad reaction to my initial push on him.

My initial push was based on my theory of there being 1 Scum in the 1st 3 posters in any given Mafia game (backed up by examples in post 153), but I neither explained nor did I actually FoS anyone in particular at the beginning. I just said nom was less likely to be it. MC used my mistake (of counting the Co-mod in my 3 first posters list) and voted me for it. I thought that made him more likely scum than the other two and voted him and only then did I explain my theory. MC then doubled down claiming my theory was an easy way to fake reads, although that wasn't why he voted e at first.

If anything AT ALL I believe I did move the game out of RVS with that post (which was one of my main objectives of posting it). I guess now is the time I should note that I am a Neighbor and that my Neighbor knows this because I had asked them to ask me why those 3 if they were online, but nom did it first anyway. I told my Neighbor specifically that them engaging me on this one should move the game out of RVS, so -at least- I did that regardless of whether my read on MC is correct.

I guess if I can see it scum can.

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This was all claimed before I posted Jake.

It’s partially why I have a problem believing DGB here.

There’s nothing new in the way of claims here.

A one shot cop claim is absolutely perfect for sneaking by and not being checked and willing to sacrifice one of their own so DGB goes deep.

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I don’t know about that a50 I am kinda torn on if we all mass claimed or not. But at the same time I think flavor may be role indicative.
I would much rather hold off as long possible before more claims.

Wheme I don’t townread them except for a tiny townping i just sorta have other people in my PoE that are more likely scum.

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This was all claimed before I posted Jake.

It’s partially why I have a problem believing DGB here.

There’s nothing new in the way of claims here.

A one shot cop claim is absolutely perfect for sneaking by and not being checked and willing to sacrifice one of their own so DGB goes deep.

The player i sacrificed was a lurking newbie who was more useful dead than alive.

Nom could have used a one shot ability and was actually blocked and is more useful for towncred at this point. I find it hard to believe scum don’t have full powers though. We really need a scum flip.

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MathBlade you are ignoring my request to explain how nom claiming miller on day 2 when I obv'd a guilty result fit with the alignments you are suggesting.

I am not ignoring it I just find it wholly irrelevant.

If you had already planned for nom to die a bad claim works wonders.

If Nom is scum and you guiltied him it’s a panick response.

It’s literally a circular logic question. If it was planned the reaction was. If it wasn’t it wasn’t. It’s a meaningless tautology.

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I fail to see how this helps town A50.

Let’s assume your claim is true that you know a certain flavor is in the game.
Unless you know that a certain flavor is of a certain alignment I don’t see how this benefits town.

Without a scum flip it would be hard to tell if a flavor means anything or not. Scum on the other hand know what is and isn’t relevant based on being able to ask for fake claims.

Since scum could ask for fake claims, they could easily just “please give me a fake claim” and get it and then use that.

If so you gain nothing new. I fail to see what lie you’d catch someone in. You’d need an informed + alignment something I just don’t buy

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Meanwhile we would just give scum all of our flavors. Granted it could be meaningless but it could help them a lot so I would vote no but I kinda wanna hear what Titus thinks and her reaction because of D1.

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I do. And if I were scum (which I am not) I would know how to damn well exploit what’s written.

I to be frank think your role is meaningless as described. Giving the benefit of the doubt…and go one step further and assume scum always lie and town always truth tells.

Assume all the flavors are claimed and the one you’re looking for isn’t on the list. Congrats! You’ve confirmed scum exist. Coulda told you that without the claims. That gets us nowhere.

Assume all flavors are claimed and the one you’re looking for is claimed. You then either A) stop the claiming to limit damage thus giving scum a place to look or B) continue it to fruition.

I fail to see why this has to happen now. Hell if you’re going that far mass claim would be better than flavor claim.

I see absolutely no benefit at all to confirming an antitown faction exists. Like I just don’t get what you’re asking here.

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That kinda looks like disagreement to me. All I did was state my opinion on this.

I think your suggestion is antitown. I asked Titus for input in case I missed something.

You’re more than welcome to vote me for being an obstinate meanie but that won’t add any value to your hypothesis or turn it into a theorem.

I think your role is effectively a named Townie. And it’s okay those exist in games. If Titus disagrees then I would love to hear why. That’s all.

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Whatever. I still note my objection. Getting you to listen to reason will be more antitown than it’s worth. If Titus agrees let’s go. This just seems very very bad and no upside.

Pedit:
Xlos you seem new. If DGB is scum setting up nom, the traditionally smart play without overwhelming evidence is to always elim the guilty party. Because then if you get an inno you look at the claimed cop hard. That rule generally applies only to cops who have more checks though. I would be down for a DGB elimination but the smarter play strategically is nom. I will have to look up on the wiki. Nom’s claim is also just horrendously bad. Tbh if we had two elims today I wouldn’t feel bad about quick elimming them both but the smarter play is to always just elim the claimed guilty.

The exception to this rule is if there is some plausible way the guilty is not a guilty. This being a theme game it’s possible but not probable. An example that I would refer to is when I was a loyal motion detector ans got a “guilty” on Grendel. Pushed him hard but then realized how it could fall apart and started looking at those wanting to end the day and lurkers and we got actual scum (Titus).

I can also see waiting to see if the FN comes to fruition though. I just don’t think it’s the smart play here. I would compromise on it if we aren’t doing nom but we should probably do nom.

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https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12618780

This is the game I am referring to. You don’t let scum off the hook with Ate or “utility” you stop pressuring someone when you believe they are/could be town.

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That actually doesn’t mean anything unless there is a second cop/rolecop like I think which makes your claim sus as fuck?

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No really. If you’re one shot and nom is fake claiming scum why claim miller? It seems dumb. There’s be no other “cop” checks to protect against. Ergo a second cop check of some kind would be needed to be a Miller to.

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@A50

Intermediate Value Theorem

So we’re doing this? *sigh*

Mean Value Theorem

Crumbed several times.

I still note my objection this is stupid.

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That kinda looks like disagreement to me. All I did was state my opinion on this.

I think your suggestion is antitown. I asked Titus for input in case I missed something.

You’re more than welcome to vote me for being an obstinate meanie but that won’t add any value to your hypothesis or turn it into a theorem.

I think your role is effectively a named Townie. And it’s okay those exist in games. If Titus disagrees then I would love to hear why. That’s all.

Most obvious one. I was trying to answer A50 so he would shut up and stop asking about flavor as I suspect he would have mine because reasons.

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@A50

Intermediate Value Theorem

So we’re doing this? *sigh*

Mean Value Theorem

Crumbed several times.

I still note my objection this is stupid.

Where?

Also why?

Where to what? My objection to this was noted several times and even to the point A50 voted me.
I literally quoted my most obvious crumb if I have to underline words I can.

And why? Flavor seems indicative of *things*

[MathBlade]

Where to what? My objection to this was noted several times and even to the point A50 voted me.
I literally quoted my most obvious crumb if I have to underline words I can.

And why? Flavor seems indicative of *things*

Where did you crumb?

If you think announcing flavor is so bad, why crumb it?
Second, you have non-mathletes in the game (at least myself) who would miss your crumbs. Since you defer to me a lot, how could you make any effort to crumb me a math concept I have likely never heard of.

Third, why did you defer to me on claiming flavor?

Fourth, I missed your stance on Xlos requesting to announce if we were algebra, geometry or calculus. What is your stance? What is your opinion of Xlos and A50?

1) I literally quoted it earlier when I mentioned each word of my theorem and something else in a stilted way.
1b) Because I was trying to show A50 my theory without screaming it
2) That’s kinda the point of a crumb. It’s meant to not be obvious in the moment but an obvious call back later. If it’s obvious it’s a claim lmfao.
3) Because no matter how I shake this you’re town. I don’t see a way you’re scum (which frankly scares me but I need some sort of footing). I think the longer this day goes on the more damaging it is and I would just rather elim nom and be done with it. I think we end up risking giving more information to scum then what we get analysis wise here. Yes reads are important but at some point you just gotta end the day.
4) I had hinted at my stance earlier where I think scum would be some sort of stats/applied math. Until I know all the flavors I can’t say for certain though and since scum can request fake claims as A50 oh so eloquently pointed out then I think application for flavor for us is useless. Scum are the ones who know what flavor means and I would like to limit the bleeding but with how much is out there I just am shaking my head.
5) My stance on Xlos and A50 is one of them (or more) is being a town idiot. I don’t see both of them as scum. So to be frank I am focused on limiting the damage to town since in my mind we are elimming Nom and the only reason I don’t vote Nom is prevent quick hammers and you wanted until Tuesday.

[MathBlade]

There is one other blatant crumb before the A50 convo and I will only share it upon my death or e-1 it will be obvious.

I have to go to a bbq but this day is pissing me off.

[MathBlade]

DGB's claim is probably real by the virtue of my flavor being second deriv and DGB being first deriv.

I disagree with this but I see where you’re coming from. It’s possible DGB is town I just don’t find it the most probable. I think the most probable is Nom+DGB.

I think explaining why I think that is really anti town.

[MathBlade]

DGB softed the guilty prior to your miller claim.

No you fail to see what I'm trying to say.
I am saying that DGB could have just done all of this because it learned my role

overnight

upon confirmation. and decided to claim a guilty on me knowing I'd claim miller. That's my point.

Ftfy lmao

Like I feel like I am being trolled at this point.

Is there like a candid camera mod or something?

[MathBlade]

Chica while Math isn’t required to play it is coloring my reads a bit. It’s not required to play but DGB’s claim is an action while everyone else’s claim so far is a theorem/property. Sure it’s first derivative but the test on it is odd.

That type of test also requires a bit of intuition/mental calculation while other properties so far have been facts.

That’s I think the safest way I can say what I want I think?

[MathBlade]

but DGB’s claim is an action

People were asked to flavor claim, I'm the only one who has actually claimed a role in addition to the flavor.

That's why my claim is singularly an action - so far.

QED

No no no what I mean is

“First Derivative Test” is an action.

It’s a thing someone does. It doesn’t match everyone else’s flavor.

[MathBlade]

Why are we talking about flavor and mech instead of analyzing the players?

There are really only about five players actually saying anything. I count myself as not pulling my weight as far as that goes. So boredom? But A50's role apparently means he's a neighbor infmored about a specifc flavor matching a specifc role. I think that's where it started. As I type that out it sounds about as convo;uted as nom's claimed role.

pedit: So I guess that probably means flavor and roles don't really match.

I think flavor has some importance just I think piecing it together now is dangerous.

I still do not understand A50’s point here and it feels wrong. I just don’t know if it’s scummy wrong and it’s definitely not something I start with so many claims out. It feels like blatant fishing. But at the same time a50 is better than that.

[MathBlade]

but DGB’s claim is an action

People were asked to flavor claim, I'm the only one who has actually claimed a role in addition to the flavor.

That's why my claim is singularly an action - so far.

QED

No no no what I mean is

“First Derivative Test” is an action.

It’s a thing someone does. It doesn’t match everyone else’s flavor.

Alright Math... you want troll

The flavor miller that doesn't claim D1 checks the actual miller who doesn't claim day 1 and they both get upset with each other for being too bad to be town while the rest of us just blow fireworks rather than blow our actual lids.

I am sorry, are you legit suggesting that DGB and nom are both town? Am I reading that correctly?

[MathBlade]

but DGB’s claim is an action

People were asked to flavor claim, I'm the only one who has actually claimed a role in addition to the flavor.

That's why my claim is singularly an action - so far.

QED

No no no what I mean is

“First Derivative Test” is an action.

It’s a thing someone does. It doesn’t match everyone else’s flavor.

Alright Math... you want troll

The flavor miller that doesn't claim D1 checks the actual miller who doesn't claim day 1 and they both get upset with each other for being too bad to be town while the rest of us just blow fireworks rather than blow our actual lids.

I am sorry, are you legit suggesting that DGB and nom are both town? Am I reading that correctly?

She's pseudo-trolling like she said in the preface.

I am not so sure. I think Titus is considering the possibility. I find it utterly ridiculous here but sometimes her “moonlogic” (I don’t mean offense here just she can have a different way of thinking) and I wanna see where she goes with it. That’s why I am asking if she is legit suggesting it.

[MathBlade]

I think flavor has some importance just I think piecing it together now is dangerous.

That seems to be xlos's point. And I'm guessing wheme's.

And mine first.

[MathBlade]

I don't see why they both can't be town. Queue DGB. But I don't think that's what Titus's point was.

I’d rather her elaborate.

For me is the DGB+nom3 situation. I don’t see myself voting outside there short of someone scum claiming or a damn good explanation. I agree he’s suspicious but the only one elim a day makes it difficult.

What makes you say their lying about their role?

I am pretty sure they’re a neighbor. That seems an odd thing to lie about? Unless you mean lying about the informed bit which is unfalsifiable. If no one matches the flavor A50 expects then A50 just says so player X is scum and a 1v1 forms. Or if someone matches the flavor then A50 says “player X matches the flavor” or maybe not even that. There’s no way to check him. So since there’s no way to check it no way to know if he is lying and this bs about flavor shouldn’t even have started today with all the open claims.

[MathBlade]

I can't believe we have a guilty and we're even thinking voting some other player.

I can’t believe I agree with a top scumread. What is this game?

[MathBlade]

It’s not really an ask thing. It’s a more stream of conscious thing.

I guess if there is an ask someone needs to summarize why a50 over a guilty claim.

My vote’s been spiritually on nom3 this whole time and I don’t see it changing without a case or explained reasoning and it would have to be like top tier damn good reasoning that makes me speechless.

[MathBlade]

“First Derivative Test” is an action.

It’s a thing someone does. It doesn’t match everyone else’s flavor.

It may have been too long since I last actually practiced calculus, but isn't Second Derivative Test a "first derivative test on the first derivative"??

My flavorname is Second Derivative.

For a guy who's focused on flavor you're sure as hell not reading it. The Second Derivative is still a thing. (Super paranoid thought? DGB + A50 + T3? I really really townread T3 though so I'd only go after T3 if A50 and DGB both flipped scum)
I do not get your point at all A50 and if you're going to demand everyone flavor claim when you had a "specific person".

Finally, half of us have already claimed their roles or at least crumbed them. Let's start with dgb, nom, toog & t3

You also wanted these four first. Now your "specific person" you want is not in these four.
This means you were 100% flavor fishing.

I don't know why I don't know how but I sure as hell will not be following you into an unexplained flavor tunnel when I think pants are dropped too far already.

So much so that I'm seriously considering with some flavors of DGB or nom and you may be trying to save one or the other.

Claiming flavor seems really really dumb. I believe I've figured out things based upon what people have said (and no I will not say what because I'm not dumb) and this day should have ended a long time ago. Far as I'm concerned I think this day was extremely damaging even if the paranoia theory Titus mentioned about DGB and nom is true. That's how bad I think today was and is, but at the same time I can't risk nom being scum and then just quick hammering against Titus's wishes so I'm stuck in a goddamn rock and hard place but if you push this without explanation (and one that explains ALL your prior bullshit) I will tunnel you.

[MathBlade]

I routinely make 5 posts in a row when I catch up.

The rest of my post stands.

No. The rules forbid this. I still think Nom's claim is weird as fuck but having played with nom before I think they'd obey the spirit of the rules. Saying that Nom wouldn't obey rules for a wincon is really shitty. I've been making longer posts to try to avoid double posting and get flak for it from people who "don't want to read paragraphs". This is a slow activity game. That means paragraphs will happen.

[MathBlade]

UNVOTE: nomnomnom

VOTE: Xlos

Why Titus?

We have a DGB + Nom situation and A50 trying to pretty much in my POV force a mass claim.
Please explain a Xlos vote?

[MathBlade]

Let's assume for a moment that's true. I'm not so sure it's the most likely explanation but I'd buy it's possible.
Why Xlos over A50? A50 looks like he'd be perfect for the "I always townread Nom" scum role for cred if Nom flips town.
A50 has been blatantly flavor pushing and when I argued against it he voted me not because of anything I was doing but because I was going against him.

Yes I'm against mass claiming flavor. I as a general rule always crumb the bare minimum necessary for later. You'll see my reasons.
I don't find A50 town if Nom is.
Why do you think A50 is town?
I kinda am against a Xlos elimination he just feels like newb town to me. I got a maybe? scum ping but I think that's more because he's new he's saying things that are mechanically silly. I don't see any malicioiusness or possible evil intent or should know better like a50.

[MathBlade]

I think that it doesn't take math knowledge to determine actions from properties/theorems with a simple google. I think if I'm right on powers then a simple google all that is needed.
I think that if you're right and it doesn't take even a google once everyone is claimed I think we'll be in even more trouble once everyone flavor claims.
You'd be betting the game on both me and Xlos not being scum at that point pretty much I think which is contrary to your Xlos scum point since we both have math degrees.

I think if you want to make a Xlos scum case you need to make it independent of flavor because if you think A50 is town and he does force a mass flavor claim then a scum!Xlos (or to be fair a scum me but I'm not scum) would probably gain a lot if flavor has any meaning at all.

[MathBlade]

Right, it's not in the role PM, but my role is a technique in analysis, so I assume that all roles are techniques in analysis, algebra or geometry.

He goes from this to all VTs are real numbers. It's odd.

So? My theory has also evolved with more flavor claims. I originally thought scum would have stats instead of calculus. Until all flavor is known being able to narrow it down will be impossible. For anyone who is town it's educated guesses. My guesses are just that. Scum has knowledge of what their flavor is. I think that if you want to convince me of Xlos more than A50 flavor is not the way to go about it.

Pedit: Can do Jake if it gets super long.
Yeah Titus that needs a lot of explanation I think. I don't see how you're getting there.

How does the Flea elimination happen D1 if that's the case? Can you do something besides flavor?
Like where is your usual "casing" or "going back" and examining prior play?
I know you normally don't do VCA but it's odd that you're not at least trying to refer back to D1.

[MathBlade]

We really probably should take a deep look at that d1 wagon and see where the scum is and debate between ourselves about it.
Toog isn't it for starters, Titus.
Titus probably town for actually bothering to sort me out and drive discussion, ++town right there

Ewwww....Nom + Titus?

Ewwww

*Shivers*

[MathBlade]

VOTE: nom

What's wrong is that Titus didn't want me to hammer you then has a theory you're town and doesn't explain any of it hardly at all and then you back her up because she's defending you. It's very very ugly.

And now that you can't quick hammer without both Titus and you (assuming you're both scum) here's my vote.

If Titus actually believes you're town then she'll have to put up or shut up.

[MathBlade]

I'm still building words so I don't know if I can do reasonless but this is my thoughts.

DrippingGoofball : It ==> In Scum PoE
3: Xlos : He/him ==> Mid Tier seems newb
4: Almost50 : He/him ==> Scum role fishing
5: Jake the Wolfie : Any ==> Mid Tier lurker
6: Galron : He/him ==> Mid Tier lurker
7: theslimer3 : They/them ==> Me
8: T3 : He/him ==> Town read (I only see a very specific world in which T3 could be scum but I really think town)
9: Titus : She/her ==> Moon logic town
10: WhemeStar : He/him ==> Gut town (light town read less than T3)
12: Toogeloo : They/them ==> Town by mechanics, I wish they'd do more
13: nomnomnom : He/him ==> Occam's razor says he's scum. Need a damn good reason to vote somewhere else.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: nom

What's wrong is that Titus didn't want me to hammer you then has a theory you're town and doesn't explain any of it hardly at all and then you back her up because she's defending you. It's very very ugly.

And now that you can't quick hammer without both Titus and you (assuming you're both scum) here's my vote.

If Titus actually believes you're town then she'll have to put up or shut up.

This is a very ugly attack, trying to push me because I recognize someone trying to sort me out as townie and trying to frame it as impossible.
math gaining scumpoints very rapidly!

This is on page 18 rolling into 19. I don't doubt for a minute now that nomnomnom has a role that benefits from being on a prime number. I think he had a problem with understanding his role and got lucky the game rolled onto page 19. nom likely thought the day ended with hammer rather than including twilight. Otherwise that post is really odd to start the defense before getting guiltied.

The issue then becomes that nom³ is now required to have the mod end the day on a favorable page. What if the mod is busy and can't end the day on a prime number page?

Well first of all I assumed like any reasonable person that the day ends with a hammer, at which point we enter twilight.
Ircher doesn't consider that to be end of day and enters twilight, so I got confused. Now I just understand with my role in the game we basically need to all coordinate to preserve page hammer = to day end, which means little to no twilight posting. I should have asked I guess but I thought how it worked was obvious.

The way I work is based off what's most likely.
It's extremely unlikely you're town.
Therefore I need a case that either makes someone equally or more likely to be scum.
Or a case that you're town that's just as good as the guilty.
This is an incredibly high bar.
If the majority of players (IMHO stupidly) say we aren't elimming you then we can't because of how mafia works but that wouldn't change my opinion about you.

[MathBlade]

I'm still building words so I don't know if I can do reasonless but this is my thoughts.

MathBlade ==> Me
Toogeloo ==> Town by mechanics, I wish they'd do more
T3 ==> Town read (I only see a very specific world in which T3 could be scum but I really think town)
Titus ==> Moon logic town
WhemeStar ==> Gut town (light town read less than T3)

Xlos ==> Mid Tier seems newb
Jake the Wolfie ==> Mid Tier lurker
Galron ==> Mid Tier lurker

DrippingGoofball ==> In Scum PoE
Almost50 ==> Scum role fishing
nomnomnom ==> Occam's razor says he's scum. Need a damn good reason to vote somewhere else.

I rearranged the reads

What are your reads? I see you rearranged mine, but what are yours?

[MathBlade]

At what point did you start town-reading nom³, Titus?

I'm not sure exactly when I did. At first, I was looking for this that would refute his claim, but I didn't find any.

I also struggled with how opportunistic the day feels.

Nomnomnom posting this way is generally consistent.

Why were you looking for things that would refute his claim?

Miller D2 seems plenty to me.

Why did you ask me to hold off until Tuesday while still voting Nom?

[MathBlade]

That bar is literally impossible short of a day cop.
You know this.
I am feeling Titus + nom hard and Titus is moving way down in my rankings.
I don’t buy this explanation at all.
You said holiday now it’s “look psychologically” whatever that means.

I am kinda feeling all scum in (nom,DGB,A50,Titus) right now.

Nom’s claim is so preposterous and instead of doing what’s probable you’re doing what’s possible.

[MathBlade]

You’ve had two days pushing on a third and for what?
The only memorable thing is A50’s fishing shit show.

What exactly are you doing?

Because right now I am really regretting not just hammering when I could have.

I guess if you’re scum it helped fix my read of you so bonus?

[MathBlade]

There are too many non-voters.

Why? I don't feel inclined to vote anyone until Tuesday or unless I get more time to get thoughts going.

@A50/MathBlade, I see you both there.

@A50, What are your thoughts of Xlos trying to get everyone to claim what branch of math we were?

Jake, I read this as wanting time for the holiday as my previous response.
Her response now seems to be that she wants to read people psychologically whatever that means.
No I would never denigrate mental health of a persons specifically.
I'm sorry if it came off like that.

[MathBlade]

What are your reads Jake?

[MathBlade]

Okay…then you should be able to explain what you’ve seen so far. Give me something you’re learning. What things have you pushed for or attempted to learn?

[MathBlade]

Do you want a recap of the thread since Saturday?

I feel like I've learned quite a lot.

I’d love it from your POV yes.

I’ve only been asking a while now.

And damn Jake that’s like the towniest thing you’ve said I like it. Keep it up please

[MathBlade]

@nomnomnom and Toog, Thoughts on my readslist?

Well, for starters, you have me as probable scum. How do you think I'll think of your read list?

Eliminating one of either DGB or nom³ is the most practical play today, with nom³ being the smart move.

After that is settled, the A50 stuff probably needs resolution.

At what point did you start town-reading nom³, Titus?

I blocked Galron last night; they're probably pissed off about it. I'm out of roleblocks.

It was a gut shot blocking.

Explain please.

This doesn’t add up. You were talking about A50 and Titus at end of day and choose to block Galron?

[MathBlade]

DGB, my vote is yours, if you want it. There is a way Toog can be town.

I also have a minor FoS on A50 based on what nom flipped.

Why does DGB have your vote Titus?
DGB has an explicit meta of doing this and hasn’t town told and hasn’t discussed any other reads.

[MathBlade]

Do you care DGB? I feel like when I discuss mechanics with you that you're never going to trust me after Deco.

Does DGB care about what? I feel like there’s a missing post here or this is meant for a scum PT. This doesn’t compute.

[MathBlade]

Could be a fake out but unlikely.

You’re theorizing that a flavor cop is a fake out when it’s inside a joat?

When a doctor has flipped, an even night rolecop,, a claimed RB, a claimed one shot cop, and a neighbor?

I count two ways for follow the cop.
Flavor has to have some meaning here I think.
I also think it’s really antitown to keep talking about it.

[MathBlade]

Flavors obviously have some meaning.

Why?

Look at nomnomnom's role PM. This gives some more town credit to the people who were trying not to have a mass flavorclaim (wheme and mathblade) and more scum credit to those in favor (A50 and DG). For now, I still think A50 is the most suspicious all together.

VOTE: Almost50

VOTE: A50

Definitely down for this.

If we assume for the sake of argument DGB is town (pretty much I would vig DGB simply to sate my paranoia) then I don’t think A50 would be a potential third way to have a cop check of some kind. This game has three scum overall. I am thinking yesterday A50 was trying to get nom out of the elim and so was Titus to an extent. I just don’t know which (if any) of Titus/A50 is town derp.

[MathBlade]

Of this, if all this is analysis like xlos was talking about, then what distingueshes the green flavor from the red flavor?

I'd like to know that too.

All I see is that anything to do with "Derivatives" has some kind of Cop to it.

Note: They were both claimed already by the time I called for the flavour claim.

If I was to believe that the flavour is alignment indicative I'd confirm DGB as Town (as that wasn't already evident by the nom flip), confirm Wheme (that's the player I was informed of their flavour and I do have "flavour" reason to TR them now IF flavour is alignment indicative), put Titus & Italiano as "same alignment" (both are Theorems).

So, unless we think the remaining 2 scums are exactly Titus+Italiano then scum are in Xlos, Jake, Galron & Toog

This logic is terrible. You said so yourself scum can ask for fake claims.
Secondly I am Italiano/the slimer 3 slot. Italiano never claimed flavor iirc and neither did slimer.
This is the second time you’ve been behind/mistaken/what not when supposedly hunting flavor.
That’s pretty poor.

Discussing flavor I still maintain is very antitown. Whoever is E-1 can claim it with their role if needed. Anyone pushing flavor talks after this post gets the biggest FoS.

[MathBlade]

Like, SERIOULY.. how the FUCK is DGB still suspect? Not only did it get a guilty on nom, but the claimed flavour suggests an Investigative. Did scum get 2 Investigatives??

… This only makes me suspect DGB+A50 even more.
DGB is suspect because this is its MO as scum.
I want to see it to the things it did in Warehouse 13 and other games.
It just isn’t.

[MathBlade]

@Galron, Why are you voting Toog?

Reading last page of day 2 it seemed fairly clear that if nom flipped red, toogs was probably not a rb.

And you didn't consider the possibility of nom knowing he had been roleblocked by a town toog?

If nom had tried to use his flavorcop and failed, he could have deduced he was blocked.

Then why didn’t you when I said this argument yesterday when I said Toog is town?

Why are you recycling my prior arguments?

Where’s your VCA and something new?

[MathBlade]

@Titus: I

am

using Math theories. nom was "Derivatives" and had a Flavour

Cop

shot. T3 was Second "Derivative" Test and was a Modified Role

cop

. DGB is First "Derivative" Test, and claimed 1-shot Alignment

Cop

. If Flavour is indicative of ROLE (which it is from the Mod's quote I quoted yesterday) then Derivativ(s) = Cop. This should be enough for me to put DGB as an IC already.

Now I am a "Test" and so is Wheme, so I am assuming ... WAIT! Wheme isn't clear by this. He could be "Informed Scum" still. I'll let MATHBLADE decide on it. Wheme is "Root Test".

1) I think you are very much scum for continued discussion of flavor over reads.
2) I think answering your question is very antitown. My previous theory about stats v Calculus is wrong.
3) Flavor cannot be an IC due to scum having the ability to fake claim shit.
4) If I townread or scumread Wheme based on that flavor I will end up with a reads reason to do so as well.

I see zero benefit in outing to scum flavor clues if they haven’t figured out what I believe is accurate.

My theory is to STFU about this and scum hunt.

Who do you scumread?

[MathBlade]

a claimed RB

I found the anomaly.

I mean pretty much I think if you’re town it’s a 1v1 between Toog and A50 at this point and A50 makes more sense by play.

I think Toog A50 and DGB has to contain at least one scum. Down to elim any of those. I think A50 is most likely scum but Toog/DGB safer due to if they’re town they’re out of shots.

[MathBlade]

MathBlade, for a paranoid MathDude, you sure are trusting Toogeloo.

I am paranoid but I think they’re town because of how they claimed.

I think it would have to be you Nom and Toog world for Toog to be scum and I wouldn’t even know how to begin proving that can of worms without your flip first since I don’t think scum!Toog claims there without a plan.

[MathBlade]

Pretty much trying to figure out if yesterday Titus was town genuinely stalling for time or if Titus was scum with Xlos A50 or Toog and trying to get a wagon counter to Nom going.

I gotta crash but I kinda have a big would elim list and a super elim list
(Super elim is ToogvA50vDGB) I think a scum has to be in here due to claims and follow the cop problems
(Would elim Titus / Xlos ) << I can’t read Titus to save my life and Xlos I gut Ping town but how hard they tried to save Nom is hard to ignore

The remainder is more if I am still alive territory tbh. I don’t anticipate being alive to get to a more granular level and I gotta go to bed.

Pedit: DGB I am saying that IF Toog is scum you’re a necessary prerequisite unless Toog is some higher tier scum player (which to be fair I don’t remember/haven’t seen their scum game). It is just so weird to claim you blocked a player with a claimed guilty.

[MathBlade]

Could be a fake out but unlikely.

You’re theorizing that a flavor cop is a fake out when it’s inside a joat?

When a doctor has flipped, an even night rolecop,, a claimed RB, a claimed one shot cop, and a neighbor?

I count two ways for follow the cop.
Flavor has to have some meaning here I think.
I also think it’s really antitown to keep talking about it.

There’s also my other outstanding question of your VCA Titus.

Your feelings yesterday nom was town was bad.
Now you’re arguing Toog,A50, and DGB are all town and so follow the cop would exist.
This setup was reviewed by a good mod.
Good mods don’t allow follow the cop.

So either explain how follow the cop doesn’t exist here.

And A50 as to your offer if Xlos is elimmed and if Xlos flips town then tomorrow if I am not dead then I will see about if your offer occurred.

It’s also weird Wheme didn’t completely freak out that A50 claimed a flavor for him but instead on the mechanical post of A50s.

Like Titus what are you doing?

[MathBlade]

I'll personally see to it that both I and DGB are dead tomorrow.

???

That's a weak hider claim.

One of the most powerful roles out there when played right.

I'm ignoring it. A50 claimed yesterday.

Yes the informed neighbor hider who did the completely smart thing in flavor claim and a town PR absolutely didn’t die /sarcasm

Titus why aren’t you on A50 yet?

[MathBlade]

More specifically assume DGB T3 both claim D1. Murdercat does not claim.

What mechanic exists to stop this from being:

DGB one shot cop checks nom. Scum shoot DGB. DGB doesn’t die due to doctor who would protect cop claim.
Nom is red, DGB claimed D1.
T3 checks anyone. Scum shoot T3. T3 doesn’t die due to doctor who would protect the even night Role cop.

Scum usually at best have one shot strongman.

So help me out here Titus:
If there is a third “Root Test” even if it could act on D3+ how does follow the cop not exist here Titus?

So far we have seen a Joat that doesn’t prevent follow the cop Titus.
Even a one shot strongman doesn’t prevent follow the cop.

Explain to me how you don’t have a scum in Toog/A50/DGB.

[MathBlade]

In the world you are theorizing scum have to make it through a roleblock, a doctor, and two cops in two nights. And if you believe A50 then they can’t fake claim flavor because of a third potential issue and if Root Test is another investigative as a50 wants us to believe that’s 4.

Need two strongman kills and a way to defend against the cop checks.

Mechanically Toog makes the most sense to be scum but by play does not.
A50 by play is scummy AF and the claims get wilder by the day.
DGB is Townie on paper but this is scum meta for them.

One of them has to be scum. Look back and decide who and if you don’t address this problem and theorize which is scum then it’s becoming more likely you’re scum with one of those three and everyone else gets de facto Town because 3 scum.

[MathBlade]

There’s also my other outstanding question of your VCA Titus.

Your feelings yesterday nom was town was bad.
Now you’re arguing Toog,A50, and DGB are all town and so follow the cop would exist.
This setup was reviewed by a good mod.
Good mods don’t allow follow the cop.

So either explain how follow the cop doesn’t exist here.

I'm not playing purely mechanically.

Follow the cop can't exist when DGB is out of shots though.

Maybe I'll have time for my VCA tonight. We'll see.

Literally just wrote how it would.

By day three you assuming your town reads you have
1) Unelimable DGB
2) Unelimable T3
3) Unelimable town from DGB check / Conf scum
4) Probable town/scum from T3 even night check

If we assume the Best case scenario for scum and town!DGB gets and not scum and T3 hits a vanilla so prob Town and two miselims

Then you end up with 4 confirmed/likely town, 3 scum alive, 2 other players left.

That becomes literally unwinnable for scum.

Therefore your theory DGB Toog A50 all town seems very very improbable as I doubt there would be an unwinnable setup for scum.

Hell I will even grant you a one shot strongman used on T3 which is the best not follow the cop then you’re still at

2 conf town on D3 vs 3 scum vs 4 others.

This one technically is viable barely but requires town to be dumb or scum to get lucky with a flavor cop.

I get not wanting to play a mechanical game to not give scum places to hide but at some point it has to come into your reads.

I find A50’s informed (not taken into account for simplicity of explanation sake) most likely to be false. There is no logical way I see how scum would not have to deal with follow the cop here. I just don’t with your theory.

Until and unless you provide a theory that works I don’t give a shit about your feelings that were wrong yesterday.

[MathBlade]

If we go by order of mechanically most likely a liar: A50,DGB, Toog
If we go by order of role claims true ignoring play order of most likely scum: Toog, DGB, A50
If we go by play alone most likely a liar: A50, Toog, DGB

So A50 is the most likely scum imho of the three.

[MathBlade]

There’s also my other outstanding question of your VCA Titus.

Your feelings yesterday nom was town was bad.
Now you’re arguing Toog,A50, and DGB are all town and so follow the cop would exist.
This setup was reviewed by a good mod.
Good mods don’t allow follow the cop.

So either explain how follow the cop doesn’t exist here.

I'm not playing purely mechanically.

Follow the cop can't exist when DGB is out of shots though.

Maybe I'll have time for my VCA tonight. We'll see.

Literally just wrote how it would.

By day three you assuming your town reads you have
1) Unelimable DGB
2) Unelimable T3
3) Unelimable town from DGB check / Conf scum
4) Probable town/scum from T3 even night check

If we assume the Best case scenario for scum and town!DGB gets and not scum and T3 hits a vanilla so prob Town and two miselims

Then you end up with 4 confirmed/likely town, 3 scum alive, 2 other players left.

That becomes literally unwinnable for scum.

Therefore your theory DGB Toog A50 all town seems very very improbable as I doubt there would be an unwinnable setup for scum.

Hell I will even grant you a one shot strongman used on T3 which is the best not follow the cop then you’re still at

2 conf town on D3 vs 3 scum vs 4 others.

This one technically is viable barely but requires town to be dumb or scum to get lucky with a flavor cop.

I get not wanting to play a mechanical game to not give scum places to hide but at some point it has to come into your reads.

I find A50’s informed (not taken into account for simplicity of explanation sake) most likely to be false. There is no logical way I see how scum would not have to deal with follow the cop here. I just don’t with your theory.

Until and unless you provide a theory that works I don’t give a shit about your feelings that were wrong yesterday.

Whoops slight correction

If kill on DGB and T3 fails then it’s 4v3v4 and I think that’s still unwinnable
If kill on T3 passes and DGB fails then 3 v3 v 4 I think that’s right on the edge of maybe possible

Quite simply put I get your desire for not a mechanical game that’s why it’s a PoE.

There’s still room for a reads case and depending upon how you read people maybe Toog is scummier than A50 to you, or maybe you understand my DGB paranoia more or maybe you agree A50 is scum.

There is still forced reads but imho we have to elim in those three.

[MathBlade]

Omg I literally cannot sentence structure on my phone at work

That’s kill on DGB fails and T3 passes.

Yay sentence structure.

Work for me now bbl but imho I think we find the scum in those three somewhere.

[MathBlade]

You’re looking at right now is winnable for scum.

I agree.

You’re blatantly misinterpreting my argument.

Follow the cop if D1 mass claim (except doctor) makes all roles currently claimed impossible.

If Murdercat wasn’t dead then the game is unwinnable for scum.

Ircher and SirCakez are good mods. It is logical that they would not have follow the cop.

Scum have some kind of defense against cop + doctor in newbie queue it’s an unlimited roleblocker. Ergo by claim Toog likely scum.

You cannot seriously be suggesting no problems because scum are okay now. That’s missing the point.

[MathBlade]

And how do you know there’s no further clears?
What about this Root test?

VOTE: Titus

Calling it now Titus+A50.

[MathBlade]

Math, your argument is off the wall and inconsistent. You argue Toog is scum rb but the team is A50 and me.

I'm not doubting A50 can be scum. I'm just not joining your analysis that there must be scum.

I am arguing multiple different worlds Titus. You know that’s how I operate.

I am on VERY short spoons right now and I do not like you either not noticing the nuance or not giving a damn to.

I am arguing mechanically one of the people claiming to cop/setup info is scum OR Toog is. That’s the hard ifs.

Then by play of DGB/A50/Toog, A50 makes the most sense by play. (See prior posts)

[MathBlade]

A strongman can avoid follow the cop as well. What is suggested may not be true.

Toog may be scum, but mechanics don't damn him.

I literally fucking explained why that isn’t enough even granting a strongman kill on N2 of T3.

You still get one uncontrollable unmitigated cop check on N1 and still have follow the cop.

If strongman kill DGB follow the cop on T3.
If strongman kill T3 follow the cop on DGB.
(Assuming a50 town which I don’t buy) then you still have this “informed” from A50.

Therefore scum must have a way to mitigate this scenario or there.

There are two unmitigated “informed” here.

[MathBlade]

If you were going with your prior argument, dgb v nom is S v S. Posts like Xlos would be the third.

Xlos should be the wagon today.

VOTE: Xlos

That indeed is a possible world.

I just know that I want to flip in DGB / A50 / Toog until we see red.

[MathBlade]

Explain please.

This doesn’t add up. You were talking about A50 and Titus at end of day and choose to block Galron?

I just felt that Galron wasn't getting any attention. Everyone knows I claimed Roleblocker, so blocking someone I suspect would seem obvious.

---

I could vote either A50 or xlos based solely on their insistence of flavor claiming. I do like A50's request to kill xlos, with the "tonight I guarantee," caveat, however.

I don’t like this because it looks like scum trying to buy one more day and then when DGB doesn’t die and we have to elim him and then he memes and “told you so?”

I don’t barter with scum I eliminate them.

The most likely world is A50 and Titus.

[MathBlade]

What if, wild guess, scum have a redirector/bus drivor?

Then T3 doesn’t die N2 and we see a quick bus on Nom not resistance. Is it possible scum play suboptimally? Yes. Likely no.

Redirect T3 to a scum then T3 goes “omg so and so is scum” or in this case “Townie X is scum role Y” would happen.

The chaos would be palpable.

[MathBlade]

Xlos' post is so bad, but they are trying to figure things out and looking at every angle. They reached the wrong conclusion, sure, but it's a long "no stone unturned" post where they indeed left no stone unturned worth mentioning. The wheels are actually turning and following a slightly messy, but not nonsensical progression.

One day MathBlade will have enough information on me to realize I would never bus a useful buddy, only one that is a liability to the team and more useful dead than alive.

MathBlade could still be scum, it's a triple-replacement player slot that plays the paranoid card to the hilt and seems super-salty that the town has power roles.

======================

Night 1, Toog allegedly roleblocked nom, a claimed power role that had gotten little suspicion.
Night 2, Took allegedly roleblocked Galron, when he could have roleblocked a suspicious character like Xlos, MathBlade, Whemestar OR EVEN ME since there are a few people that think I hard bus'ed nomnomnom. I claimed 1-shot... if you think I'm scum then it's not a terrible wager that I might perform the kill.

Toog's actions makes zero sense, and when things don't make sense (like a friendly neighbor miller claiming on day 2 and allegedly also roleblocked) it's because we've hit scum.

His read progression, as Titus pointed out, also makes little sense.

VOTE: Toogeloo

Town DGB: oh no! Math is angry about not being listened to. Is it possible he’s scum? Oh maybe he’s scum pissed about the setup? Instead of I dunno thinking about the points and if you agree or disagree?

Scum DGB: Uh oh I hate Math’s dilemma he has me in. Quick shade him and get a miselim somewhere.

[MathBlade]

At the top of the next page I am done will look after work / cooking tonight but Titus blatantly sheeping DGB seems wrong.

If the Toog elim succeeds and Toog is town I want in A50/DGB period. I know Toog is in my super elim pool but I want the scum in that trio.

[MathBlade]

I mean DGB wrote that entire post as if I am town then put in the shade later like omg.

[MathBlade]

I do like A50's request to kill xlos, with the "tonight I guarantee," caveat, however.

A50 is going to hide with Xlos, if A50 dies then we know Xlos is scum. That's super townie.

A50's hide is a joke IMO.

Why in the world would you hint this?

If A50 is scum then you’ve given him an out.

If A50 is town you’ve nuked his attempts to draw the night kill.

I don’t get you right now Titus.

Catching up while waiting for oven to preheat then Critical Role we will see how far I get.

[MathBlade]

I do like A50's request to kill xlos, with the "tonight I guarantee," caveat, however.

A50 is going to hide with Xlos, if A50 dies then we know Xlos is scum. That's super townie.

A50's hide is a joke IMO.

Who am I to stop a vanilla townie from trying to draw the kill?

Okay DGB gets some Townie points for this. Maybe it did just get a guilty.

[MathBlade]

I do like A50's request to kill xlos, with the "tonight I guarantee," caveat, however.

A50 is going to hide with Xlos, if A50 dies then we know Xlos is scum. That's super townie.

A50's hide is a joke IMO.

Who am I to stop a vanilla townie from trying to draw the kill?

Fair enough. I was wrong.

Titus admitting she’s wrong?

*scum pings x1000*

[MathBlade]

What if, wild guess, scum have a redirector/bus drivor?

That's something scum would say.

I don’t think so. I think Jake knows when to holster his trolling and when to town and I think I am starting to see it.

I just hope he can see what I can enable or could depending on how he sees English/history or whatever

[MathBlade]

At the top of the next page I am done will look after work / cooking tonight but Titus blatantly sheeping DGB seems wrong.

If the Toog elim succeeds and Toog is town I want in A50/DGB period. I know Toog is in my super elim pool but I want the scum in that trio.

Players that you'd think aren't in this game just reading MathBlade's iso:

Xlos
Galron
Jake The Wolfie
WhemeStar

That’s correct.

Because I am looking for the active scum.

With the exception of Xlos scum in those slots exist they will absolutely be crushed by this player list.

I am more concerned about a Titus/A50/Toog scum than I am the others.

Xlos if scum I can tell doesn’t seem to have a grip on mechanics so if he’s scum we can probably just fluster him and he will break.

Galron is pretty much lurker at this point which is NAI.

Jake is trolling and I think I am starting to put him together. Definitely not an elim today.

WhemeStar is pretty content lite active lurking. I want to see Townie pings from him.

But that’s about as much time as I want to devote to those slots with the triad going. I see maybe one scum at best and think it’s a waste of time to focus there.

[MathBlade]

At the top of the next page I am done will look after work / cooking tonight but Titus blatantly sheeping DGB seems wrong.

If the Toog elim succeeds and Toog is town I want in A50/DGB period. I know Toog is in my super elim pool but I want the scum in that trio.

Players that you'd think aren't in this game just reading MathBlade's iso:

Xlos
Galron
Jake The Wolfie
WhemeStar

That’s correct.

Because I am looking for the active scum.

With the exception of Xlos scum in those slots exist they will absolutely be crushed by this player list.

I am more concerned about a Titus/A50/Toog scum than I am the others.

Xlos if scum I can tell doesn’t seem to have a grip on mechanics so if he’s scum we can probably just fluster him and he will break.

Galron is pretty much lurker at this point which is NAI.

Jake is trolling and I think I am starting to put him together. Definitely not an elim today.

WhemeStar is pretty content lite active lurking. I want to see Townie pings from him.

But that’s about as much time as I want to devote to those slots with the triad going. I see maybe one scum at best and think it’s a waste of time to focus there.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: A50

I should be voting in my trip despite how much Titus is pissing me off atm. She’s better than this.

[MathBlade]

unless Toog is some higher tier scum player (which to be fair I don’t remember/haven’t seen their scum game).

Just saw this.

Uh... Don't look at my Mafia Aligned games in my wiki.

So you’re good scum.

Can you convince me of a good reason you’re town here?

I don’t think it’s a smart scum move what you did on D2 but gonna give DGB a shake here and see if its town and right on you.

I gotta go for Critical Role sorry for the lots posts be back later

Hard to respond to every thing on phone in one post

[MathBlade]

Xlos if scum I can tell doesn’t seem to have a grip on mechanics so if he’s scum we can probably just fluster him and he will break.

Then why are you stopping us from flustering him?

I am not. I am saying it’s suboptimal and bad because it breaks away from the mechanical trio that has to have scum in it so deviating from that trio is scummy to me.

[MathBlade]

I don't think it's the second option because I don't think scum cared that much about saving nomnomnom much. He was doomed - as soon as he claimed friendly neighbor, he was guaranteed to die at some point in the next few days.

Why was Nom so hard to eliminate if scum weren't trying to swing it elsewhere? Like you were.

He was mainly hard to eliminate because you begged me not to hammer then people seemed to try to save him both A50 and Xlos. I will have to double check but I think that’s the order on that. You said not to hammer until Tuesday but I never really understood what you wanted to see or your point. Why exactly did you vote Nom before Tuesday?

It kinda makes me feel like by play you and A50 makes sense. You ask me not to hammer yet until you can get something of value. Since I am sorting you thinking you’re town but wondering what you want, then A50 has to do the fishing. If you did after asking for a stall it would be suspicious.

A50 votes me of sheer frustration when I call him out on his BS. He’s never really pushed it though. Each time it’s more shade.

As I have said before when I die my play will become incredibly obvious why I did what I did.

All of it makes sense, so scum can’t actually miselim me. They can’t kill me.

They can only hope to make me look bad.

So here’s where I am torn.

Simply because A50 and Toog back fo back on Xlos is really bad, like that vote movement is hella bad. But if I let it go then I kinda prove my point one of them is very likely scum especially with Toog immediately sheeping A50 after voting him and if I stop it I literally am doing the thing I said I am not doing.

But that wagon movement is so bad that I am kinda convinced Xlos would flip town from it so I am like wtf?

It’s a literal damned if I do damned if I don’t situation.

Like I see Titus + A50 making sense EOD

But Toog voting Xlos right after is so freaking bad.

This literally confuses me. I don’t know what to think.

I am going to bed and will look back in the AM. There has to be something I am missing here.

[MathBlade]

Woke up too late to do a look back.

Kind of expected Titus and other people to be online.

Where is everyone?

[MathBlade]

Math, do you primarily thing A50 is scum because they were shading you?

I think A50 is scum because
A> Neighbor with Wheme informed of flavor claim makes no sense. It’s more likely Nom flavor checked Wheme. If we assume DGB is town for the sake of argument and A50 is town for the sake of argument, then you have three people would have ways of alignment/role checks.

This informed flavor also cannot be something that he would have just received from his hood mate Wheme d2 because then no reason to start the flavor claim in the first place.

So I find it very unlikely that on top of this A50 is also a hider.

B> A50 was pushing flavor and not the guilty. A50’s hero solve was DGB town nom town and pushing in Xlos Wheme and you Iirc. This was 100 posts after voting me and not doing a damn thing with it. I think scum A50 thinks y’all are easy miselims. Town A50 posts more and is a lot more consistent.

C> He hasn’t demonstrated how his reads have changed despite declaring DGBvNom TvT. Instead it’s more outlandish claims.

D> When I vote him he tries to barter with me for another day. I don’t barter with scum. Nom tried bartering we elimmed there.

E> Take out a piece of paper and write out all the claims so far including a50s. Put them all in the town column. On the scum side put a one shot flavor cop and a one shot doctor (which implies the presence of a vig so for shits and giggles add a one shot vig to the town column). If you can’t think of a set of powers that would balance this out then the most likely solution is there is a liar in the claims.

At first I tried scum roleblocker (other than Toog) > No one else claimed blocked and if Toog is town they could easily block T3 and setup Toog to take the fall. So roleblocker is out.

Then I thought redirector/busdriver but they would need unlimited shots to account for nights one and two and somehow divine the existence of cops. Once one claimed a check, doc on them. So a strongman would likely exist in this world but again with two shot roleblocker and doctor it would have to be unlimited.

I went through and tried to balance this and I just can’t with such a weak PR flip from Nom.

I think him shading me is all he can do as scum.

Pedit:DGB what do you make of the Xlos wagon?

[MathBlade]

Clocking in now bbl

[MathBlade]

A> Neighbor with Wheme informed of flavor claim makes no sense. It’s more likely Nom flavor checked Wheme. If we assume DGB is town for the sake of argument and A50 is town for the sake of argument, then you have three people would have ways of alignment/role checks.

This assumption requires that Toog didn't block wheme.

It assumes that Toog was unsuccessful.
Toog could have submitted it as was driven/redirected elsewhere.
It doesn’t assume Toog didn’t block Wheme.

But if a50 does flip scum a redirect/busdriver likely possible.

[MathBlade]

There has to be something I am missing here.

You're trying to force a square peg into a round hole.

Hunting everyone can help you find which one or more of your 3 is scum.

Lol that’s like saying voting town will magically vote scum.

It doesn’t work like that.

[MathBlade]

It assumes that Toog was unsuccessful.
Toog could have submitted it as was driven/redirected elsewhere.
It doesn’t assume Toog didn’t block Wheme.

Wait what? I don't understand any of this.

I did only score a C+ in Cal II... I'm very proud of the "+" but it's not helping me in this game.

This is my suggestion (assuming you are town)
Toog submits to the moderator “I want to RB Nom”
Nom submits “I want to flavor cop Wheme / Y”
Scum submits either redirect Toog to X
Or Toog and Y busdriven

Then when Nom gets guiltied he fake claims out his butt and Toog then announces he blocked Noom which then makes the fake claim plausible and scum learn of a roleblocker.

In this world scum A50’s team checked Wheme and since Wheme didn’t go “I am not Root Test” you scummy mcscumscum then it’s safe to say that is accurate knowledge.

So A50 neighbor hider informed flavor doesn’t make sense but A50 scum does

[MathBlade]

@Titus: I

am

using Math theories. nom was "Derivatives" and had a Flavour

Cop

shot. T3 was Second "Derivative" Test and was a Modified Role

cop

. DGB is First "Derivative" Test, and claimed 1-shot Alignment

Cop

. If Flavour is indicative of ROLE (which it is from the Mod's quote I quoted yesterday) then Derivativ(s) = Cop. This should be enough for me to put DGB as an IC already.

Now I am a "Test" and so is Wheme, so I am assuming ... WAIT! Wheme isn't clear by this. He could be "Informed Scum" still. I'll let MATHBLADE decide on it. Wheme is "Root Test".

@Wheme

Still lurking as I can will address stuff later

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: snip!

It assumes that Toog was unsuccessful.
Toog could have submitted it as was driven/redirected elsewhere.
It doesn’t assume Toog didn’t block Wheme.

Wait what? I don't understand any of this.

I did only score a C+ in Cal II... I'm very proud of the "+" but it's not helping me in this game.

This is my suggestion (assuming you are town)
Toog submits to the moderator “I want to RB Nom”
Nom submits “I want to flavor cop Wheme / Y”
Scum submits either redirect Toog to X
Or Toog and Y busdriven

Then when Nom gets guiltied he fake claims out his butt and Toog then announces he blocked Noom which then makes the fake claim plausible and scum learn of a roleblocker.

In this world scum A50’s team checked Wheme and since Wheme didn’t go “I am not Root Test” you scummy mcscumscum then it’s safe to say that is accurate knowledge.

So A50 neighbor hider informed flavor doesn’t make sense but A50 scum does

Nom's claim doesn't make sense with a bus driver. He was either blocked or scum with Toog.

So you're saying Nom was.. Fakeclaiming?

Possible but not certain.

Either a) Toog blocked him or b) Toog is scum.

Nom doesn't claim blocked without backup.

Did I miss where Nom flipped friendly neighbor scum?

Of course he was fake claiming. How is that not certain.

Nom has to claim blocked because *gasp* fake claim.

Like I just can’t. I was going to catch up but I am kinda wondering if Titus is trying to townslip with just how bad that post is. Or if she is trying to fake not knowing something and did so badly.

Jake DGB thoughts?

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: snip!

It assumes that Toog was unsuccessful.
Toog could have submitted it as was driven/redirected elsewhere.
It doesn’t assume Toog didn’t block Wheme.

Wait what? I don't understand any of this.

I did only score a C+ in Cal II... I'm very proud of the "+" but it's not helping me in this game.

This is my suggestion (assuming you are town)
Toog submits to the moderator “I want to RB Nom”
Nom submits “I want to flavor cop Wheme / Y”
Scum submits either redirect Toog to X
Or Toog and Y busdriven

Then when Nom gets guiltied he fake claims out his butt and Toog then announces he blocked Noom which then makes the fake claim plausible and scum learn of a roleblocker.

In this world scum A50’s team checked Wheme and since Wheme didn’t go “I am not Root Test” you scummy mcscumscum then it’s safe to say that is accurate knowledge.

So A50 neighbor hider informed flavor doesn’t make sense but A50 scum does

Nom's claim doesn't make sense with a bus driver. He was either blocked or scum with Toog.

So you're saying Nom was.. Fakeclaiming?

Possible but not certain.

Either a) Toog blocked him or b) Toog is scum.

Nom doesn't claim blocked without backup.

Is everyone just now reaching this conclusion?

Considering it doesn’t count Toog being redirected or bussed as one of the possibilities, no I am not there.

[MathBlade]

Not bastard just not normal.

We are in a theme game.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

Normal rules

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: snip!

It assumes that Toog was unsuccessful.
Toog could have submitted it as was driven/redirected elsewhere.
It doesn’t assume Toog didn’t block Wheme.

Wait what? I don't understand any of this.

I did only score a C+ in Cal II... I'm very proud of the "+" but it's not helping me in this game.

This is my suggestion (assuming you are town)
Toog submits to the moderator “I want to RB Nom”
Nom submits “I want to flavor cop Wheme / Y”
Scum submits either redirect Toog to X
Or Toog and Y busdriven

Then when Nom gets guiltied he fake claims out his butt and Toog then announces he blocked Noom which then makes the fake claim plausible and scum learn of a roleblocker.

In this world scum A50’s team checked Wheme and since Wheme didn’t go “I am not Root Test” you scummy mcscumscum then it’s safe to say that is accurate knowledge.

So A50 neighbor hider informed flavor doesn’t make sense but A50 scum does

Nom's claim doesn't make sense with a bus driver. He was either blocked or scum with Toog.

So you're saying Nom was.. Fakeclaiming?

Possible but not certain.

Either a) Toog blocked him or b) Toog is scum.

Nom doesn't claim blocked without backup.

Did I miss where Nom flipped friendly neighbor scum?

Of course he was fake claiming. How is that not certain.

Nom has to claim blocked because *gasp* fake claim.

Like I just can’t. I was going to catch up but I am kinda wondering if Titus is trying to townslip with just how bad that post is. Or if she is trying to fake not knowing something and did so badly.

Jake DGB thoughts?

Jake I asked you a question dude.

[MathBlade]

Mine is mechanics is why you’re in my PoE.

(For this argument assume all claimed are town)
We have a claimed 1shot cop, a flipped rolecop, and a flipped doctor. Primary thing to counter that is a roleblocker, and a claimed whatever A50 is, a claimed roleblocker (you), and likely a vig by Nom’s flip.

If the vig fires n1, one shot cop n1, rolecop N2 worse case for scum three guilties/flips.
Ergo scum have some obscene level of power that hasn’t flipped or someone claiming is scum.

The latter seems more probable and roleblocker is pretty likely given rolecop and doctor flips.

[MathBlade]

What seems like a steep rabbit hole?

[MathBlade]

Math, you're creating roles that don't exist. A vig likely would have shot their payload.

They could have shot at someone who died or holstered.

A vig makes more sense than giving scum a useless power that would be CC’d.

[MathBlade]

Yes it’s possible the mod made a bad setup. But it’s not any odds of likelihood probable. The odds are much more likely scum would need a doctor rather than Ircher going “oh let’s add a random doctor” and SirCakez going “I dunno why lulz?”

Yes nom would look better in that scenario but giving scum a useless PR against (assuming all claims are town) two cops, a roleblocker, an A50 (whatever his claim is it changes more often than a sine derivative), and a doctor is very very unlikely.

It’s a could for sake of completeness more than actual probability.

It’s like saying pick a number between 1 and 100 that’s greater than 5. Is it possible that the number is 1-4 and I am wrong? Yes. At that point do I care? Not really because in that 5 percent world I go “wtf was this setup” and move the hell on because I will almost never see it in my mafia career ever again.

[MathBlade]

A general rule with PRs is scum almost always need everything they have and town needs 75% ish? Or more.

If you have to assume scum have a useless PR to make your reads work your reads are bad.

[MathBlade]

Gonna hop on Xlos’s train if he doesn’t mind.

If A50 was informed of his neighbor’s flavor claim why does he start a flavor claim at all?
He could just go “Wheme tell me your flavor or I tunnel you in thread.”

Why is Wheme off the initial list?

It’s almost like A50 is probably lying.

[MathBlade]

The issue with your setup spec is that you keep closing it has two cops, but really it just has a 1-shot cop (if true), and a role cop (which would make a role like mine almost miller-ish). A role cop scan on nom turning up a joat wouldnt really set off as many red flags as a role cop scan on me would.

So you are over analyzing set up balance, tbph.

(Assume DGB town)
It has a 1 shot that returns a guilty or an inno.
A vig (and vigs are almost never scum) which is another inno.
Then an infinite shot role cop which unless one player is infinite shot Strongman+Roleblocker+Busdriver multitasker then you have guilties /innos on a majority of scum correctly which makes it

One inno by role when it claims (vig)
One inno by claim DGB
Then if T3 got a check off a 75%+ chance of it being like a cop check.

So yes I said two cops because that’s in essence what they are and a rolecop in this game imho is even more powerful than a standard cop.

You cannot have a game with 0 posts and scum all dead by end or guiltied of N2. That possibility imho would never pass review.

[MathBlade]

Tbh I find it more telling that people don’t want to hunt where it is impossible to be all town and instead are begging out of it.

If we assume that one shot cop hits town you end up with more innos than scum can kill.
Cop, vig, cleared Townie, doctor.

This is 4 “forced” kills before you get to rolecop + A50/Toog.

10 town 3 scum,
Assume vig hits uncleared town n1 to be advantageous to scum
7 v 3, 4 clears left
5 v 3, 3 clears left, Melo

No matter how you slice it or compute it,

A confirmed town would always end up in elo.

[MathBlade]

I have done cases him by play.

I have done cased him by mechanics.

You’re just not listening.

I opened the mafia PT of that game

Image

Titus, Mafia Multitasking Roleblocker
Jake The Wolfie, Mafia Goon
VFP, Mafia Encryptor

None of that is useless to scum.

You’re probably scum with A50 trying to piss me off.

I refuse to believe you are that bad.

[MathBlade]

If you want A50 dead, case him by play. We're sick of your mechanics conclusion. No one agrees with you. Consider the possibility you are wrong and scumhunt elsewhere and scumhunt everywhere by play or stop drowning the thread.

I want to talk to DGB but I feel like I can't.

Then actually do as I fucking asked you.

I asked you to come up with a scum setup that balances the claims in play.

If you cannot do it I am right.

Instead of that you prance around completely asinine theories that nom was somehow a fucking scum friendly neighbor and not fake claiming.

It’s you that’s spouting goddamn uselessness and you should stop and let me get a goddamn word in edgewise without you going “but what about moon theory .02% chance”?

[MathBlade]

I have civ tonight anyway.

If A50 hasn’t claimed like he should have last time he was at e-1 for fucks sake and we don’t elim him the vig better shoot his ass.

There’s almost nothing that could be said to convince me he is town.

[MathBlade]

None of that is useless to scum.

Right. Town had a useless strongman detector which I abused.

As I said TOWN can have useless powers.
SCUM cannot.

Nom was a one shot flavor cop one shot doctor.

[MathBlade]

Welp Math is likely stubborn town who refuses to listen, regardless of his accuracy. His push makes me real disinclined to vote A50.

If town, you literally misunderstood my argument, cited an improper game, then when I correct you instead of fucking interacting with it you just call me stubborn.

Wow. Just wow.

Damn vig should shoot Titus or A50.

#done

[MathBlade]

A> Neighbor with Wheme informed of flavor claim makes no sense. It’s more likely Nom flavor checked Wheme

nom was bloody BLOCKED by Toog on N1. Can you please see a doctor for these brain farts, cuz they're starting to smell.

And where is the proof of this?

If we assume Toog is town then we assume that Toog submitted a block on Nom. That doesn’t mean Nom was blocked as explained already.

[MathBlade]

If we assume DGB is town for the sake of argument and A50 is town for the sake of argument, then you have three people would have ways of alignment/role checks.

I dunno who the third is/was, but DGB was 1-shot and I am 1-shot by definition (I only know ONE person's flavour).

T3 the dead role cop.

[MathBlade]

I also want to know why everyone took DGB's interpretation of my post for granted. WHO THE FUCK SAID I WAS A HIDER? Because I sure didn't, and I don't know how making sure both I and someone die simultaneously can be interpreted into a Hider claim of any sort.

I did not. Your claim to me is literally ???? It has changed so much until you explain everything and to my satisfaction I see no reason for my vote to move. The most likely explanation is that you’re scum and it’s your responsibility to fix it if you’re town.

[MathBlade]

How do you as informed neighbor ensure you + DGB dead? I don’t get that. And wouldn’t you want Wheme or Xlos dead if those are your reads?

And one more time what

exactly

are you informed of assuming you’re town?

[MathBlade]

I also want to know why everyone took DGB's interpretation of my post for granted. WHO THE FUCK SAID I WAS A HIDER? Because I sure didn't, and I don't know how making sure both I and someone die simultaneously can be interpreted into a Hider claim of any sort.

I did not. Your claim to me is literally ???? It has changed so much until you explain everything and to my satisfaction I see no reason for my vote to move. The most likely explanation is that you’re scum and it’s your responsibility to fix it if you’re town.

I won't be explaining anything to you anymore. I owe you nothing, mate. I probably should've yeeted you on D1 (upon your replacement) but I have this bloody weakness of "trying to be nice" to people I consider friends, and it almost always comes back to bite me in the ass.

Excuse me for being a stubborn obstinate player who was pushing scum instead of exposing our rolecop to scum without an explanation that makes sense. Please go on and shade me instead of working to get your elim to happen or explaining your numerous incongruences. That will 100% convince me your reads are accurate.

Secondly if you bothered to look at my scum game and even if you assume I am scum the number one rule of me scum is I lie as little as possible. So if you really want Wheme or Xlos as the elim start from the beginning and explain why you flavor fished. Xlos laid out a good post of your inconsistencies you just ignored.

If you flip green I would consider one of those but not both.

[MathBlade]

Not me:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10626911

Self hammer threat as scum.

[MathBlade]

@Math: I am going to try to be as nice as I can be under the circumstances, and request that you

bloody kill them both

for me if you flip me first. This is MY GAME, and you're a replacement. You know I keep records of games I play from the start, and so far I am 2W-10L this year (and more to it 2W/7L as Town), It's not fair that you join my game to tunnel me and then "do as you wish" after you get me flipped too.

So, if you want my flip.. let's do it.. but you owe me the flips of Xlo & Wheme afterwards. Was that nice enough?

Assuming you’re town, they would go towards the top of my suspect pool. I don’t plan elims ever. They’d get the same grilling I gave you.

Pedit long as we get the scum in A50/DGB/Toog I do not care which order.

I just kinda want this day to end and I think A50 is the best chance of those three.

Pedit: I am sorry that this game is frustrating you. I don’t know how to respond to that as it seems to skirt some of the new mafia rules I just hope you know I am not intending nor will ever intend to hurt you as a person.

[MathBlade]

I’ve pretty much resigned myself to A50 probably not happening even though he should be elimmed and just going to sigh when a green flip happens whoever else we do get then try again tomorrow to explain.

[MathBlade]

A50 feels really town.

Math, what does your gameboard look like if A50, Toog and DGB are town?

You scum and I don’t know who with. I can’t really formulate a game board atm with it because I can’t formulate a setup that works with all of them town. So I would probably elim you out of sheer paranoia and if I am that far fucked it’s probably because of you and you’re one of the few scum who can get me that confused.

[MathBlade]

Going into Night 2, I blocked Galron because of their low profile, which made them the best choice to submit a kill. Couple that with nom³'s flip, and my early Day 2 suspicions of Titus, both of whom said they town read Galron, I thought it would be a gut shot roleblock if Galron might be scum to stop a kill.

At this point in Day 2 after the past several pages the last few real days, I'd say both A50 and Titus are strong town reads based on their stances.

I am willing to put DGB third for now. Math is right that DGB absolutely would bus a partner into the ground, and there constant death tunnel on me isn't helping me read them any better, but for now I give them the benefit of the doubt.

Galron can be next. My blocking on them didn't stop a kill from happening. 50/50 they didn't make the shot as scum, or just aren't scum at all, so I'm willing to levy time here with a null town read.

Math has been doing nothing but setup analysis noise since replacing in, making a lot of logic leaps in the process. The fact that his only goal has been to eliminate one of A50, DGB, or myself isn't sitting well with me. The fact that his slot is triple replaced means nothing to me as it could be any multitude of reasons for revolving door. Null read.

My current PoE stands in Wheme, Xlos, and Jake, with the latter really only down here because I am not a fan of the troll player mentality. I'm willing to bet at least one scum in there, hope there's two.

I go where the evidence lies not where is comfortable.

The fact that I can tell no one did my simple ask and try to balance this setup with the current claims (closest is Titus who disputes the vig but doesn’t try it otherwise) means that no one is actually listening to the argument made. If no one listens/interacts with the argument made I can’t change it.

If I can’t change it I can’t move away from something that is based in fact and logic to something that might as well be throwing a dart with a blindfold on and hoping to hit scum.

[MathBlade]

DrippingGoofball
Xlos
Almost50
Jake The Wolfie
Galron
MathBlade
Titus
WhemeStar
Toogeloo

I mean Titus’s question is pretty much absurd.
Look at the player list. Eliminate myself A50 DGB and Toog (about half the remaining game)

Xlos
Jake
Galron
Titus
Wheme

If that’s the world and all the other three are confirmed town we just win in any scenario since 9 alive atm. I start with Titus first in that case and if she’s scum then likely list would be Wheme Xlos Galron Jake and if she is town reverse it. But it would be literal stabs and guesses and with a town block that big scum can’t win so this world I kinda don’t care to invest much time into. 4 people never elimmed in a 9P game is all auto win if they’re all town.

[MathBlade]

I answered your question.

If Ircher himself came down on high and said all three of DGB, A50, and Toog (or any set of players) are all town then mathematically we cannot lose. No, scumreading you based on what your capable of is not evidence but your prior play is where you literally suggest Nom wasn’t fake claiming and dumb tells like that are common for you as scum.

Right now it’s 7v2 if you have 4 confirmed town that becomes
4v3v2.

Assume a miselim every single day and no vig for simplicity

3v2v2
2v1v2

We go into elo with two confirmed town and two scum.
Literally the scum have one person they can vote.
Assume we nab a scum.

1v1v1

Conf town still in second elo other two cross vote.

I think the major question is why you keep deflecting here Titus. Why do you not want to look where scum more than likely is?

Asking me to do theory work when I am pretty sure one of those few people is a vig and still hiding that from scum so they don’t know who to fuckin shoot is really really anti town. I am pretty sure I know who the vig is so I would rather not neon sign to scum “Hey kill here fresh PR”.

[MathBlade]

So answering your question to me is one of the most anti town things I can do:

Because A> It doesn’t match the gamestate
B> In almost any of those worlds if Xlos was town he would be dead.
C> I don’t wanna out the vig.

[MathBlade]

Lol minor nitpick they aren’t even deconstructing my argument Xlos.

They’re going “It’s math he’s wrong it’s too hard or setup speccy let’s move on and assume A50 is town”

You kinda have the math agrees with you curse.

Maybe I should just start lying in games then I get who I scumread elimmed /sarcastic

[MathBlade]

role that can somehow get a kill at the cost of their life.

???

I mean I have quoted it. Xlos has quoted it.
A50 denies it after claiming it.

Are we in the same game?

[MathBlade]

I mean I have quoted it. Xlos has quoted it.
A50 denies it after claiming it.

The ladies love it, the children are scared of it.

It's Jolene

I don’t follow what you’re meaning here apologies.

Cultural references are lost on me.

And DGB, so? He claimed a way to do something. I don’t care whether he’s a hider, or what the name of the label is. I care about the results. He said he could do something. The question is can he?

[MathBlade]

Hey titus what the fuck did I just read

I know there are words, but there's no thoughts here.

Titus is referencing a self exit the game action with tnt.

Some people have issues with

Spoiler: potentially problematic word

suicide

And yeah I feel ya sometimes Titus can be cryptic especially here when I struggle to figure out if she’s derp town or scum but this isn’t an alignment indicative weird.

[MathBlade]

Do you not know what an exploder is

I didn’t know it got renamed.

On this site there was a role called s-word bomber a long time ago.

I guess it got renamed to exploder?

I haven’t heard it called that.

[MathBlade]

I think A50 is just scum memeing at this point.

If we ignore all my prior arguments here a new one
A> When I voted him he tried to barter with something he couldn’t do.
B> Forgot this ability in his later claims
C> When called out on it he said he cannot do it.
>A1>Why barter with something you can’t do when someone is voting you if you’re town?
D> Claimed Wheme’s flavor earlier and wanted my flavor opinion about it. Like I get it. Math is awesome and I would love to talk your ear off but not in antitown ways.

We have a guy who didn’t want nom.
Flavor fished like hell despite being preinformed of Wheme’s flavor (if I take his word for his claim)

If someone thinks A50 is town. Why?

[MathBlade]

I don’t think that means what you think it does.

https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/ ... InAudacity

Refuge in Audacity would make him so brazenly scum and then you being the person who just refuses because you believe it outside bounds even though the evidence is right there. Literally quoted for you.

Why is A50 town and why is Toog better than A50?

[MathBlade]

This doesn’t make sense Titus.

A50 denied being a bomber.
If he was a bomber, then no problem he just goes off on his top scumread and scum waste a nightkill.
If he’s not a bomber then why claim it in the first place.

The much more likely solution is he’s scum trying to avoid a vig kill rather than town being weird to avoid a scum one.
He’s claimed nothing important and I see zero reason why A50 would be the night kill even before his shenanigans today.

Why does town want to avoid dying by nightkill when you said town has no more power Titus?
This position is not logically consistent.

Assuming A50 town …(I don’t believe this but for assumptions sake)
If town has no power left and A50 is not a mobile PR then A50 has no fear of death if town and therefore his elim/nightkill helps prove his Wheme/Xlos case.
If town has no power left besides A50 then A50 would agree that there would be scum in DGB/Toog and not have pivoted to Wheme/Xlos when Toog failed earlier. He’d freak out his scumread followed him (as pointed out earlier).

If town has power left (say a vig/exploder/what not) then A50 would be doing his best to not be vig bait.

I just don’t see what you’re getting at Titus.

DGB has not been “on fire”. If we assume it is town, it had one cop check correct and very rarely discusses anywhere else. I agree DGB sometimes has swingy games but I would have much rather it do the walls of thought that it is known for as town. There’s been little pings but nothing like WH13.

[MathBlade]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12648256

Look at the amount of work it can do when it tries to explain itself.

This is very rare in its scum games.

I want to see DGB want it.

[MathBlade]

I don’t think if DGB is scum Toog is.

And yes it can. It did more in Wh13.

Why are you arguing DGB can’t do something and why can’t it argue for itself?

So you’re entire argument to go Toog over the entirely antitown blatantly bad very likely scum is “because DGB says so?”

And that is not how sports or poker work at all. You go with the odds.

Odds are no matter DGB’s alignment nom was scum. Odds are here A50 is scum.

And yes town you can and has done a VCA with a scum flip. It seems like you use the “can’t do VCA” whenever you’re scum and it’s getting to be damn near close to a tell if it’s you and A50.

[MathBlade]

Nah not for voting Jake. Could go for a Titus elim if I have to go outside that trio.

[MathBlade]

Day 2 was a cop guilty day. I'm not sure how coloring votes is going to work as opposed to looking at players' reactions.

Then do that make your DGB list and then ask your DGB questions and find scum that way.

I think you can do that and would contribute to the game.

[MathBlade]

What I find confusing is the amount of claims and how they don't all seem to fit in one setup. Ircher and SirCakez are good mods. There are certain "newbie" mod mistakes like folllow the cop that I trust Ircher and Cakez not to make. I think Jake is slowly coming to start joining the game and providing thoughts and not trolling. Or maybe I understand the focusedness he's doing. I kinda want to see what he does.

Role claims list

DrippingGoofball >> One shot cop. Claims guiltied nom.
Xlos
Almost50 >> Claimed Informed Neighbor with Wheme. Claimed/FakeClaimed/Something about exploding/killing DGB.
Jake The Wolfie
Galron
MathBlade
Titus
WhemeStar >> Claimed Informed Neighbor with A50
Toogeloo >> Two Shot RoleBlocker

Dead players

Flea The Magician >> VT
MURDERCAT >> Ungated doctor.
nomnomnom >> Scum Joat Flavor Cop Doc
T3 >> Even Night Modified Rolecop

Likely to exist roles

Some sort of vig/exploder/reason scum have a doctor instead of some other one shot power if really trying to be an innocent to a role cop.

Could this just be A50 and Wheme and they're trying to distance? Despite screaming Wheme is scum A50 is pushing Xlos. A lot of votes on Ircher's vote count don't actually match who is being pushed.

[MathBlade]

@Mathblade: Remember this game? Assuming you're town here; can you please tell me how you play/logic/thought process evolved from back then till now?? because I honestly don't see much difference. "I am right because I'm right, and the things that

are actually true

don't make sense".

I rest my case

If you're going to randomly spout alts for no apparent reason I was Commander Shepard that game. At least leave enough context so people can figure it out.

1) My logic has changed in that I'm presenting arguments that have to be addressed. If they are not addressed then I can not just "change my mind" because the person I scum read asks me to. I'm actively asking for reasons to shoot down my case. No one is giving me any. I've literally trying to destroy my own argument. I've asked several times for people to do the bare minimum and just interact with it. I mean if people aren't going to use the information we have and start from cold hard facts and be intentionally illogical I'm just not hard wired to handle that. I work off of starting with given facts "Premises" then propose different ideas based on that.

Eg Town has a doctor. Fact. Scum has a one shot doctor. Fact.
Question asked: Why does scum have a doctor? Response: Likely scum needed it.

Eg. Assume all claims are town.
Question asked: What balances the setup? Response: Can't find a single way to do it that doesn't result in follow the cop.

Both of those if you disagree can be interacted with.
Titus just did "well because mods put in fake things for town why not scum?" It's possible that a vig/exploder/whatever doesn't exist, but against such claims already existing, it's more than likely real. There also hasn't been a known game in my entire career of mafia scum where scum have had a useless power. So while the possibility is that town doesn't have a vig/exploder/whatever, it's not anywhere near probably < 10%. Therefore I bank on town having a vig. Which then causes a problem balancing the setup.

Because I'm starting from a place that's logic, not based on reads or "gut" but factual evidence. In the game in question, I didn't take into account the theme part of Mafia scum in which the motion detector would still give innos/guilties so the miller/god father made sense.

2) In that game, yes, I struggled. I had a bad game. But part of a good town game is cooperation. I'm doing my part and saying "Hey help me I'm struggling with x" then if you're response is to highfive me or not interact with it, then that's not good cooperation. I can only go so far as people give me something to interact with.

I can't shake my DGB paranoia because it isn't doing the things I know of it being town for.
I can't shake the Toog paranoia because it would make sense to be a full roleblocker.
I can't shake my paranoia of you because of your play around nom yesterday including the fake claims and when pressured today you decided some weird ass fake claim trying to get me to flavor hunt vs scum hunt and being unique was a good idea instead of a calm, rational approach.

If you think A50 is town then help me explain why. Give me a practical reason why town does what A50 has done. We can analyze that reason together, see if it stands up to scrutiny. If it does then A50 goes into my null reads. Until then, if it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, it's probably a duck.

3) I admit, it's quite possible that everyone there in that trio could be town. But it's not really probable and imho none of DGB, Toog, A50 should exist to elo.

4) I'm not saying I'm right I'm saying it's the most probable. If you want to provide some thinking or some meet or some depth behind your thoughts go ahead. I'm loathe to vote Xlos because Xlos is one of the few players who is also showing that sort of depth and actually communicating.

5) How is me sucking in a past game relevant now? Yes I was bad. I had the right idea though. The only thing this does is shade a player you think to be town. If you really think I'm town, then get me where you are instead of attacking me.

I'm always going to do what I view as the most probable. That's who I am.

[MathBlade]

Also I'm thinking we should count Galron as conftown for getting blocked.

I don't get this with two scum alive.

Seconded. If Toog is scum, then Toog could have easily lied about who he blocked. If Toog is town, then it's less likely Galron did the kill. (Still possible strongman, redirect, busdriver, etc...) I don't think this tells us anything. I think it's more likely Galron is town, but definitely not conf town.

[MathBlade]

Hey so what has Galron done recently?

Don't remember him much at all. He's been not on my priority list because of all the other shit and not in that trio of likely scum. Usually lurkers can be sorted end game for me it kinda becomes simple by seeing who they talked with etc. Lurkers kinda become easier reads late game as long as they make minimum posting requirements a heat map solves that problem.

[MathBlade]

Responses in bold.

TLDR

The problem is when you decide that you'll go with what you think is mathematically probable to the exclusion of all else you create several problems.

1) You treat your probabilities as fact, leaving little room for day play. It leaves little room for others to read you as your motivations are not clear.

I'm not treating my probabilities as fact though. I'm treating them as most probable. Day play gets applied on top of probability. Eg it was most likely nom was scum or in the game I liked you the Grendel was scum. In the latter a reasonable way Grendel was not scum was provided. In this case, a likely way for nom to be town was not provided and he was correctly eliminated

Second, you fail to consider not all players are rational beings. A50 is towntelling so hard with his frustration with you but you aren't listening because of setup spec probabilities in your opinion. You don't think his play is optimal for town, therefore you scumread it.

A50 is known for scumrage. There is no "towntelling so hard" with his frustration. I've played with scum him enough to have seen his rage. If A50 was a new player I'd account for suboptimal a bit more, but this is like newb scum level bad. A50 is a good player. I am pretty much BoPing him. It's in the same way if I was to be frustrated or be manipulative when ran up on a wagon it's not alignment indicative.

You're failing to support your townreads (if you have any). Your townreads can't figure out or sync with someone refusing to read half the game because "scum must be in the PRs".

Pretty sure I am supporting my town reads. We've shook hands several times including the likely vig/etc. I'm pretty sure he/she/they/it knows I think they are the vig. I've also been communicating and interacting with everyone's arguments and can succintly state them except yours (but I waffle on you town/scum) and it seems it's just emotion. There's no reasoning to interact with. If you're town, you believe A50, DGB, and Toog are all town. If you're scum you may or may not. I'm not you so there's nothing to be able to use to change my opinion.

Your approach to A50 looks arbitrary. Toog has his reasons for being suspect, yet you hardly look there. You aren't considering the accuracy of other slots.

Toog has mechanical reasons to be suspect simply his claim. I've stated earlier that I think his response to nom was townie. A50 is more likely scum because of his weird role interactions and day play. I'm focusing on the player who is more likely to be scum. I've always said that if Toog was wagoned I'd hammer that as he's in my PoE.

How is anyone supposed to work with you when you lay down edicts and expect us to follow?

That's the thing. I'm not. A50 is painting it that way. I'm providing my reasoning. It's only an edict if you're not willing to try to examine it critically. If you're not willing to look into it and see what's right. If you look into it and find it wrong, then you would be able to say why and communicate so. Any players arguments mine, Xlos, yours should be analyzed. I don't expect you to follow. I expect you to try to recreate it. See if it's valid. What do you think my argument is? Try summarizing it. If you can't then you probably haven't looked at it or you don't understand it. That doesn't make it an edict.

I saw a problem that DGB was not going to vote who I thought was scum (Toog and Xlos) because it was deadset on voting its night result. I wasn't sure it was accurate but I knew I could trust it to honor a deal if it was wrong. I can't build that trust with you because you play exclusively to the probabilities (that are just your opinion).

Probabilities are based on fact though. Probabilities based on opinion especially in RVS are much more flexible. And yes it should be voting a night result if true. The deal part is fundamentally irrelevant as it's doing what was probable if it's town. The rest is superfluous. And you're right, I don't do deals unless they help me to narrow down or investigate probabilities. If something seems less likely for us to win, I don't do it as it's seemingly against win con. I always do what seems to be the highest change for town to win.

[MathBlade]

Technically the more I think about it, Wheme should also be in that PoE as well now that he's also claimed informed neighbor the more I think about it so it's now a quartet.

Pedit: The default position is you're talking to everyone to help bring everyone into the conversation. Yes you want a response from me, but people should be able to follow along to read me and you otherwise it's spam.

[MathBlade]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=85398

For context A50 this seems to be a really recent game where I have improved.
I was a loyal motion detector with a "guilty" on Grendel.
However after talking it out we realized the guilty wasn't a guilty and then ended up elimming Titus who was actually scum that game.

If you're town give me something here. I can change I just don't see any good reason you're town.

[MathBlade]

Gonna be real, I'm starting to feel like this setup analysis is a smokescreen to look super active without having to commit actual reads.

I don't mind the casual setup speculation, but you don't have the full picture Math. You actually stated the only reason you think I'm scum is because you personally can only develop a scum team composition that includes a Roleblocker, however every insinuation about my alignment from you seems to leans probable town.

So take a stance. Assume I'm town, and see if you can make an argument for someone else as being scum as a result.

---

Titus, what is your actual read on me? DGB is wrong, and you riding their coattails hoping to catch scum is dumb, especially since their case on me is conspiracy/paranoia.

---

Jake, you are criticizing Galron's limited engagement, but holy shit they are actually taking stances on topics, unlike you.

---

I can't defend against paranoia. I can't defend against stupid. And I'm certainly not about to defend myself in setup spec because any number of unknown variables including lies distorts the information.

But I've also blown my load, and been completely transparent with my reasons and reads up to this point. If people legit think eliminating me from the game will help the solve, well, whatever. I think people are being dumb with their reasons, but at the very least I've used all my actions.

I'm reevaluating my reads from a few pages back. I think I too hastily am giving a pass to a couple people, Math in particular for refusal to step away from setup spec and analyze play instead.

Toog I used to be the hard “take stance” guy and that’s what led me to my “bad” games instead I consider things from all possibilities and work from what’s most probable. Gun to my head I pick town but that would mean one of the unclaimed would have to be a roleblocker or similar fuckery. I don’t really learn a whole lot from that though because no one really is elaborating any reads. I know you can’t defend against just “setup spec” and I have been looking elsewhere partly for that reason.

I agree there’s a lot of unknowns that I don’t know. That’s why if there is a plausible setup/scumpairing that works and gets rid of follow the cop this would be a lot easier to progress. It just feels like elimming outside of those already claimed would be bad form because unless we assume one scum in A50/you/DGB/Wheme and one scum out the odds are much more likely we would be elimming town.

That also tends to fall right on the popularity line that irks me.

I kinda wanna revisit D1 and see why Flea was miselimmed for being inactive. The majority of this player base knows Flea has medical issues and is a slow start so I wanna review that wagon again tomorrow and see why Faer was miselimmed.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: VC to look at later

Day 1 VC #6

Flea The Magician (1): WhemeStar (189)
Xlos (2): DrippingGoofball (74), Titus (100)
Almost50 (1): MURDERCAT (126)
Jake The Wolfie (1): Jake The Wolfie (14)
Galron (1): Xlos (31)
T3 (1): Galron (81)
Titus (0):
WhemeStar (0):

MURDERCAT (6) (F-1): Flea The Magician (33), theslimer3 (187), Almost50 (128), nomnomnom (144), Toogeloo (173), T3 (193)

nomnomnom (0):

Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no later than Saturday, July 10, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-10 21:45:00).
This phase will end no earlier than Monday, June 28, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-06-28 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.

3: Thesp's vote counter is really picky. While I said I'd allow abbreviations, it would be very helpful if you try to conform to the spelling of the player's username as much as possible. Case matters as well.

If anyone knows how to do nicknames with Thesp's counter, please let me know. (I much prefer MathBlade's tool in terms of accuracy, but it isn't hosted online like Thesp's.)

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
2: Flea The Magician : Fae/faer
3: Xlos : He/him
4: Almost50 : He/him
5: Jake the Wolfie : Any
6: Galron : He/him
7: theslimer3 : They/them
8: T3 : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him
11: MURDERCAT : He/him
12: Toogeloo : They/them
13: nomnomnom : He/him

I need to look more here into why scum hammered Flea but did not hammer Murdercat both were town. Going to have to pick it up tomorrow unfortunately but I think D1 will probably be the most helpful.

If I have to give completely useless guessing here just off the top of my head we’re probably looking at a scum who couldn’t hammer due to positioning

[MathBlade]

@Math: Are you really missing this post?

Day 1 has a minimum deadline of three (3) days.

I'd also like to point out that you literally can't hammer me

@Toog: The Role Cop would have been useless at deciding alignments off of their results alone. Like, "Informed Neighbour" could have gone both ways, and so could have Roleblocker and even JOAT. It would have been only if the Rolecop lived until massclaim (or if we wagoned someone they checked and pushed them to claim) that they could have got a guilty at all.

Sorry I am sleepy I forgot about that. That’s what I get for starting this after being up til like 4 playing civ yesterday.

[MathBlade]

Can you talk with me about why you townread A50 after wanting the label for his role and them him saying he couldn’t do it?

Can you talk about why you townread Titus? I am always paranoid of her and a lot of her posts just haven’t been understandable. I don’t see where she has individual reads. It looks like her plan is sheep you. Usually Titus is more rah rah “Solvey solve look at my solvey solve it was Miss Scarlet in the Library with the lead pipe and here’s why” Where is that from her? That fire?

Can you talk about why you townread such a limited poster like Galron but not Wheme? What’s the difference?

[MathBlade]

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

No. No. Fuck that. I'm not taking your shit right now. You don't get to decide ifbother people are being genuine or not.

I have to go to work and will respond to the lengthy stuff overnight but I think DGB would be an excellent vig shot. I don’t think anyone wants to elim there because of the “guilty” on nom but I think DGB is so much better than what it’s doing if town.

If DGB is scum then I think it breaks the game wide open but if DGB is town it gives a solid direction of where to go next.

I just hope I am right and there is a vig and he/she/they agree with me.

[MathBlade]

Can we wait for a vig that may or may not exist?

DGB claimed 1-shot cop before T3 claimed. Role Cop is meant to try and catch liars since a player who hasn't claimed would just true claim their role. Roles like Roleblocker would be Miller-esque to a Role Cop.

If DGB is scum, and used a fake claim, then a Role Cop becomes a serious threat, which might be the main reason T3 dies last night.

DGB's only townie play from my perspective was the guilty claim on nom³, which is a gambit that DGB scum is known to do.

@A50, how confident is your push on Xlos, and what's your input in a possible DGB lim?

I think much as I am loathe to admit this the smart play is to see if DGB is vigged or not. I don’t see a majority of players willing to elim DGB.

If DGB is town then the players on him would necessarily be taking advantage of paranoia.
If DGB is scum then we have to convince a majority of town to go against what is practical.
It’s in my PoE until it does an actual read questions thingy like I linked and doesn’t half ass it like I know it is capable of doing.
DGB if scum is positioned to deep wolf.
It has done this before and if DGB is a deep wolf then the best way is not to expend our town cohesion bank on elimming it. That plays into a deep wolfs hands.

Between those three (really four because also Wheme now) my gut (yes very scientific says Toog is town) but simply by claim is in my PoE.

[MathBlade]

This isnt really working. Everyone is too committed to their reads. Ill offer a trade: today I’ll vote Toog if both DGB and Titus vote A50 tomorrow. Assuming that they survive the night. This is fair since math will probably move his vote after I do, and tonight scum can easily kill someone suspicious of A50. So if I can’t get at least 2 promised extra votes on A50 tomorrow its a waste of time.

I dont want to vote Toog, they are pretty close to null for me. But Ill take the risk and trust your reads if you trust mine tomorrow (especially if Im dead). Probably not even that much of a trade since I think A50 will be Vigged in the night.

Pedit: Ill also join the DGB wagon for 2 A50 votes tommorrow.

I like this idea. When I am caught up after helping roomie with dinner I will see where the VC is and who is on it to see if this is a good idea based on players as well.

[MathBlade]

MathBlade, I'm so disappointed in you. I can always count on you getting my alignment right. Now you are providing cover for scum to vote me today, and ask for my "vig." You are responsible for giving legs to that dumb theory that I would do the exact same gambit as scum over and over again.

Scum will claim to vig me tonight and Toog will claim to have roleblocked a townie and frame that townie as scum.

Toog is scum, it's staring us in the face.

He claims to have roleblocked a widely townread player who claimed a PR, just in time to support nomscum's FN fakeclaim.

You don't get more obvious scum than that. I don't understand how we are distracting each other to look elsewhere.

See? That. That right there is why you and A50 consistently remain in my PoE. Instead of doing the things I know you’re capable of you shade me.

And in doing so you give scum an “out”.

Number one rule of town: if scum is being dumb don’t help them.

Now I think we are kinda possibly forced to elim Toog here.
Titus thoughts?

(Must stop posting here to avoid hyperposting rule someone say something please I am on mobile)

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Toog

More when I am at a PC and after someone posts.

[MathBlade]

If DGB is scum then I think it breaks the game wide open but if DGB is town it gives a solid direction of where to go next.

Pray tell, what is that solid direction? You kill a tunneling player and then what?

I think that if DGB is scum, then the plan to bus nom was intention. Then we can look back at who was suspect D1 because then DGB was in a really bad position and then used this for cred.
I think that if DGB is town however, then something is stopping it from being able to be at top form. Normally a cop with a guilty is a high kill target for scum. DGB isn't playing like he's going to die any moment forward and wanting to dump reads. There's something in the emotional gunk that is stopping it. Find that "gunk" and there's your scum. It has made read question walls in highly setup intensive things and been a good town voice so there's something particular about this game. I'd look for a Titus or an A50. I'd look at me but I know I'm town. Maybe Xlos? Someone vocal. Logically probably Titus w/ A50 since she's been much more of a sheep than usual then "rah rah I am Titus god here me these are the scummy scums". Scum!Titus is agreeable.

1428 - I think Wheme is saying Toog scum doesn't make sense because how Toog claimed to roleblock Nom.

1439 - Why would you hammer someone you townread?

[MathBlade]

If DGB is scum then I think it breaks the game wide open but if DGB is town it gives a solid direction of where to go next.

Pray tell, what is that solid direction? You kill a tunneling player and then what?

I think that if DGB is scum, then the plan to bus nom was intention. Then we can look back at who was suspect D1 because then DGB was in a really bad position and then used this for cred.
I think that if DGB is town however, then something is stopping it from being able to be at top form. Normally a cop with a guilty is a high kill target for scum. DGB isn't playing like it's going to die any moment forward and wanting to dump reads. There's something in the emotional gunk that is stopping it. Find that "gunk" and there's your scum. It has made read question walls in highly setup intensive things and been a good town voice so there's something particular about this game. I'd look for a Titus or an A50. I'd look at me but I know I'm town. Maybe Xlos? Someone vocal. Logically probably Titus w/ A50 since she's been much more of a sheep than usual then "rah rah I am Titus god here me these are the scummy scums". Scum!Titus is agreeable.

1428 - I think Wheme is saying Toog scum doesn't make sense because how Toog claimed to roleblock Nom.

1439 - Why would you hammer someone you townread?

edit for pronouns. Sorry DGB.

[MathBlade]

If DGB is town then the players on him would necessarily be taking advantage of paranoia.

100% that, and you are responsible for fueling that paranoia two days in a row.

There's fueling then there's simply stating. The only thing I have done is state my paranoia when asked about it. I have not pushed you except for maaaaaaaaybe a tiny bit yesterday depending on your definition of "push". All I have said is that you are in my PoE which is true. This is a part of your scum game and therefore I have to take it into account when playing with you. Hell if I wanted to fuel the paranoia, I could quite easily build up an exact case about how something you said is almost EXACTLY parallel to one of your scum games. I'm not because it's 1) not helpful and 2) you're not a good elim but you're a good vig for reasons I've stated. There's a fine difference and I think I've done a damn fine job of stating the possibility while not going down the rabbit hole. I've been trying to get you to be your best self. To do the things that make you good town. I've even given examples. I'm not sure how to get you out of this funk you're in.

The simply stating it however, is what keeps conf town/likely town alive. If I'm wrong and merely just a paranoid idiot then scum don't kill you and think you can be elimmed later. That's why if you're a deep scum pushing you gets the emotional capital all kinds of wishy washy. But if you're dead due to a vig and town we keep the same emotional capital and see who wanted it changed.

I don't mind being the "stupid idiot" if it helps us win. I will take my reputation being absolutely tarnished if scum can't win. I won't naturally do that as I don't think I've done anything bad per se. But I think there's a good possibility you're scum. It's not enough to be a probability so I want to leave it alone since you should be vigged or killed by scum and not wasted energy on during the day.

[MathBlade]

MathBlade, I'm town. Just beware when someone claims to have vig'ed me, and there is no other NK. Promise?

Promise. I've seen quite a few scum gambits in my day and so have a few players here. I don't think anyone here would fall for that. Titus if town wouldn't and neither would A50 for sure.

If Toog is town then I'm probably dead just respect my PoE if scum kill me please. Promise?

It does but I have my own theory as to why Murdercat was killed. There's a certain post I found looking in Murdercat's iso that I think he died for. I accept that looks bad for me but I replace into slots like double replaces as town and scum so meh. It is what it is. I have my scum points I just gotta work to demonstrate I'm town.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: Claim posts

That seems like not a good thing to say before someone claims it but ok

by the way if we could end days with a prime number of pages that would be very great thank you

Is this the post you're talking about?

Yeah
Like somehow this got ignored but T3's post didn't
Makes me feel weird in a way

I tend to not want to elaborate on claim related things

(Town would have backed off once they realized why I put Umlaut on the list by mistake)

I'm not backing off because I think choosing the first three people who posted is a really easy way to fake reads

Where in here is it implied that's why I originally voted you?

I voted you because your first statement sounded like you were trying to make fake content. If you weren't I think you were more likely to explain the reasoning for your claim. The fact that you didn't bother to check if umlaut had posted anything while trying make it seem like your reads were based on content when referring to nom made it worse.

There is no way this wagon on me is real, these votes are awful and trying to run me up to a claim is terrible

My guess is that based on Murdercat's ISO Murdercat slipped he was a PR of some kind. VT's don't heavily worry about being put to a claim at L -1. My guess is that scum though to kill him soon as 213 dropped.

[MathBlade]

What's the POE, MathBlade?

I don't see how scum would read a PR soft from the above posts.

That there's a scum in you, A50, Toog, and Wheme. (Wheme recently added when he confirmed the neighbor bit)

It's the mannerisms. If you're a vt, sure you're worried about claims but as a town power role you have to taper that worry. A VT doesn't say "This is a horrible wagon and it's trying to get me to claim." A VT says something like "This is a horrible wagon and so and so is terrible for hopping on". It's a subtle nuance but it's there. Then again I'm really good at identifying TPRs as scum (see Team Mafia the large theme when I identified all the PRs for OkaPoka although I don't know if the discord is public). And as a VT it's ideal to try to play the opposite way. Like you're some kind of super important PR that screws over scum but you're actually just a VT so you eat a bullet.

[MathBlade]

Well I honestly hope you're eliminated because I don't think you're town, your reason was just sooo baaaad.

Contrast this with Flea's response. It's a generic "your reason was just soooo bad". It doesn't have a fear of PR at all in it.

[MathBlade]

Yes it’s a caricature but it’s the easiest way I can think of to explain what I find missing.

It’s not that you’re not trying the effort is there and so I stick with the quotes and the tone to explain my thoughts. It’s not a caricature that’s insulting or misrepresenting it’s merely a descriptive one. Sort of like your avatar is a caricature of Carmen Sandiego. No one believes anyone looks like that IRL but the image is illustrative enough to get the point. You’re a spitfire and give opinions as town and more “agreeable” as scum. That’s the wrong word hence quotes just lacking words.

[MathBlade]

I am sorry my memory is a bit foggy what are you talking about how nuclear terrorist game or the other game with a “big debate” (there is no identifier mentioned). Was Dogs and Cats Mafia a scum or town game?

I want to look them up after I finish pathfinder tonight for a quick skim.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Almost50

Work and Critical Role tonight will post as I can.

[MathBlade]

So then scum to you is in Titus/A50/Wheme/Galron right? (I am still paranoid sorry)

Which do you think is most likely and how did your reads change after Toog died?

Why are you not voting A50 like discussed yesterday?

[MathBlade]

I think I have a really weird idea but it’s kind of moonlogicky.

I just need to clarify one thing: DGB are you saying I am town because of my paranoia?
Or are you saying I am town because I caught you in a lie when you said you were one shot so you checked me and Xlos using cop checks?

This distinction is really important.

[MathBlade]

This distinction is really important.

I did not check

you.

I just assumed that you were clever enough to put two and two together, and would have killed me last night if you were scum.

Okay so here me out.

And this maybe crazy but let’s assume you checked X and Y and both are town. Since you’re not screaming Z is scum I am relatively confident you have 2 clears.

If you have less than 2 clears then this does not apply.

If you have two clears then because you have said you have additional shots and I can’t exactly help you anymore with paranoia then you need to out them and we need to elim you. This is only if you have two clears.

The reason being is that if you have 2 and exactly two clears then scum cannot shoot you they have to leave you in paranoia land.

Let’s assume for a moment we miselim someone today. Then scum shoot you.
Then going into elo scum have two clears vs two scum and one regular Townie.
Smart scum (like a Titus or A50) will have already told their partner not to shoot you in that case and try to work off my paranoia (which I still have). Therefore we actually aren’t working off clears and a good wordsmith can make you look like scum. We would be relying on you and wordsmith battle and no scum fuckery to make someone look clear who isn’t etc.

In contrast let’s look at what happens if you are town with two clears and are miselimmed. Then scum have two conf townies they have to kill between X and Y. Whichever they leave alive tells us something. Then scum cannot control elo it’s in the hands of conf town.

This only works if you have two clears though. If you have one or no clears left this is ridiculously bad and then you’re probably dead tonight and we should not elim you and back to probable scum A50.

Titus is that moonlogic that’s good or I should ignore random ideas of plans while working?

Regardless DGB should announce his check(s) that he has done now that he has claimed additional shots. We can then analyze it and it’s checks accordingly too which will help remove paranoia.

[MathBlade]

I don't think your analysis is wrong (reservations that I will check after date night), but I struggle to believe your premise.

It requires

1) DGB is a town full cop with every other town role being gated.
2) A scum full roleblocker sitting around with zilch likely town actionable claims doesn't block the cop in case it lied.
2b) Scum have a strongman but gambled on DGB not lying despite every other claim having at least two shots. It follows DGB would as well.

What's logically likely is that DGB is either a 2 shot cop or an odd night cop. That would give it one clear extra instead of two.

….There are sometimes when you should examine the premise and sometimes when you shouldn’t. If you’re town you completely missed what I was doing.

DGB if scum and said two clears would have outed itself. It woulda been a great reaction test.

I kinda find it unlikely it even had another shot tbh.

It should out clears if any regardless.

[MathBlade]

The fact DGB didn’t die and Jake did is odd as fuck. I am trying to figure out if it is scum killing threats or if scum killed Jake for a reason.

*sigh*

That feeling when you can’t pull a Titus correctly.

[MathBlade]

You are getting so stinking close to why I think scum in DGB/A50/Wheme Titus if you’re town.

So stinking close.

I have to quit hyper posting now but gah.

[MathBlade]

….There are sometimes when you should examine the premise and sometimes when you shouldn’t. If you’re town you completely missed what I was doing.

I thought you explicitly asked me to look at your premise.

#confused

I asked you to look at the conclusion not the premise.

Okay so is Xlos your clear then?

[MathBlade]

DGB if scum and said two clears would have outed itself. It woulda been a great reaction test.

What are you on about? I said I didn't check you.

You're making me feel murderous.

I was reaction testing you.

You said you didn’t check me but you could have been setting up a fake cop check gambit.

A good fake claim for scum has to be preplanned and take into account balance setup.

Hell you could even be a scum odd night cop to get around the rolecop. A de facto godfather.

If I make you feel murderous for making you stick to a claim then I am doing my job right as town because this should be out before elo.

Pedit:Derp will do better next time Titus

[MathBlade]

Again who did you check N3 if anyone?

[MathBlade]

Again who did you check N3 if anyone?

How is it not obvious??? Xlos.

Why Xlos over Titus or Jake? Your reads were proven bad with Toog flipping town. Talk about that please.

Pedit: unless Xlos godfather but I kinda don’t want to go down that rabbit hole atm I don’t think.

[MathBlade]

The only way DGB gets another result is if it survives to 3 player lylo. I'm not inclined to eliminate it for that reason. It's forced to put itself into voting first or claiming to check the dead guy which is rather suspect. It's more likely scum will kill DGB if we eliminate scum today or tomorrow.

UNVOTE: Unvote

I am not so sure about that Titus.

The reasoning seems circular.
Assume DGB+Xlos then we never see 3P elo.
Assume DGB+someone else then we narrow our scope today, hope to hit someone else so only one scum tomorrow.

If DGB gets to 3P elo there’s a huge issue.

At minimum it should be sorted and grilled today to figure out why it checked Xlos if town.

Pedit: Titus again this is a theme not a normal. Why do you keep insisting it’s a normal?

Edit: Please unvote using the unvote tags and not vote tags.
~Ircher

[MathBlade]

Pedit: Titus again this is a theme not a normal. Why do you keep insisting it’s a normal?

I'm in too many games. Derp.

Anyway, I'll have to go any minute. Date night.

Down for A50 but DGB needs to explain itself.

I have to get dinner for roomies so bbl

[MathBlade]

I buy its explanation I think we do A50 today.

I think mostly it’s just lingering DGB paranoia because it’s DGB.

Since I can’t quantify or explain it so it’s probably just town.

To be fair Xlos I have been trying to die for a while now.

I do not follow what methodology scum are doing with the kills at all.

VOTE: A50